1 00:00:43,610 --> 00:00:48,081 SCIENCES IN THE DIVISION OF 2 00:00:48,148 --> 00:00:49,082 TRANSLATIONAL TOXICOLOGY. 3 00:00:49,149 --> 00:00:52,786 HIS RESEARCH IS FUNDAMENTALLY 4 00:00:52,852 --> 00:00:59,759 FOCUSSED ON SPATIAL AND SPATIAL 5 00:00:59,826 --> 00:01:02,395 TEMPORAL METHODOLOGICAL IN 6 00:01:02,462 --> 00:01:03,897 POPULATION LEVEL EXPOSURE AND 7 00:01:03,963 --> 00:01:04,931 RISK ASSESSMENT AND AN 8 00:01:04,998 --> 00:01:06,766 INVESTIGATOR IN THE DIVISION OF 9 00:01:06,833 --> 00:01:09,536 TRANSLATIONAL TOXICOLOGY, 10 00:01:09,602 --> 00:01:12,071 RESEARCH HAS BEEN TO INCLUDE THE 11 00:01:12,138 --> 00:01:15,909 INTEGRATION OF METHODS TO REDUCE 12 00:01:15,975 --> 00:01:17,577 SPATIAL EXPOSURE AND RISK 13 00:01:17,644 --> 00:01:17,811 METHODS. 14 00:01:17,877 --> 00:01:21,815 TODAY HE'S GOING TO TALK TO US 15 00:01:21,881 --> 00:01:29,789 ABOUT THE GEOSTATISTICAL METHODS 16 00:01:29,856 --> 00:01:33,593 FOR MECHANISTICALLY-INFORMED 17 00:01:33,660 --> 00:01:34,494 CLIMATE RISK ASSESSMENT AND THIS 18 00:01:34,561 --> 00:01:37,730 IS RIGHT ON TIME WITH THE 19 00:01:37,797 --> 00:01:40,433 CLIMATE ISSUES WITH FLOODING AND 20 00:01:40,500 --> 00:01:42,836 SNOW STORMS AND FLIGHT 21 00:01:42,902 --> 00:01:43,169 CANCELLATIONS. 22 00:01:43,236 --> 00:01:45,438 I THINK IT'S A TIMELY TALK. 23 00:01:45,505 --> 00:01:46,673 WITHOUT FURTHER ADO, I'M GOING 24 00:01:46,739 --> 00:01:51,411 TURN IT OVER TO DR. MESSIER. 25 00:01:51,478 --> 00:01:51,911 >> THANK YOU. 26 00:01:51,978 --> 00:01:53,279 I APPRECIATE IT. 27 00:01:53,346 --> 00:01:53,947 THANK YOU ALL FOR INVITING ME. 28 00:01:54,013 --> 00:02:00,253 IT'S A PLEASURE TO BE HERE. 29 00:02:00,320 --> 00:02:03,223 I'M A TENURE-TRACK INVESTIGATOR 30 00:02:03,289 --> 00:02:09,529 AT NIEHS AND HAVE BE AN ADJUNCT 31 00:02:09,596 --> 00:02:10,797 APPOINTMENT AND BELIEVE 32 00:02:10,864 --> 00:02:12,765 INHERENTLY ENVIRONMENT PROBLEMS 33 00:02:12,832 --> 00:02:20,373 AND HEALTH DISPARITY PROBLEMS 34 00:02:20,440 --> 00:02:22,442 INEXTRICABLY LINKED AND WE LOOK 35 00:02:22,509 --> 00:02:24,177 AT HEALTH DISPARITIES IN OUR 36 00:02:24,244 --> 00:02:24,444 GROUP. 37 00:02:24,511 --> 00:02:28,147 THE NAME OF MY RESEARCH GROUP IS 38 00:02:28,214 --> 00:02:32,652 THE SPATIAL EXPOSURES TOXICOLOGY 39 00:02:32,719 --> 00:02:34,020 PSYCH GROUP AND MY PRESENTATION 40 00:02:34,087 --> 00:02:38,057 TODAY WILL INTRODUCE SOME OF THE 41 00:02:38,124 --> 00:02:38,958 TOXICOLOGICAL OR MECHANISTIC 42 00:02:39,025 --> 00:02:43,930 APPROACHES WE'RE THINKING ABOUT 43 00:02:43,997 --> 00:02:45,398 THAT INCLUDE THAT TOX PORTION OF 44 00:02:45,465 --> 00:02:45,765 THE GROUP NAME. 45 00:02:45,832 --> 00:02:47,767 I CHANGED UP THE TITLE A LITTLE 46 00:02:47,834 --> 00:02:48,835 BIT FROM WHAT INITIALLY PROVIDED 47 00:02:48,902 --> 00:02:51,304 TO THE ANNOUNCEMENT. 48 00:02:51,371 --> 00:02:53,773 I WANTED TO DISCUSS A RECENT 49 00:02:53,840 --> 00:02:55,308 PAPER WE HAD ON CLIMATE AND 50 00:02:55,375 --> 00:03:03,883 HEALTH IMPACTS ASSESSMENTS. 51 00:03:03,950 --> 00:03:05,818 ALSO MAKE IT MORE RELEVANT TO 52 00:03:05,885 --> 00:03:11,991 THE NIMHD AUDIENCE. 53 00:03:12,058 --> 00:03:13,760 SO, THIS IS A LITTLE BIT OF AN 54 00:03:13,826 --> 00:03:24,370 OVERVIEW OF MY GROUP, THE SPA 55 00:03:24,938 --> 00:03:29,842 SPACEO -- SPATIOTEMPORAL 56 00:03:29,909 --> 00:03:32,979 EXPOSURE TOXICOLOGY GROUP AND 57 00:03:33,046 --> 00:03:35,515 THIS CAN BE USED IN ANALYSES FOR 58 00:03:35,582 --> 00:03:38,551 HEALTH STUDIES. 59 00:03:38,618 --> 00:03:39,218 ADDITIONALLY, I'M INTERESTED IN 60 00:03:39,285 --> 00:03:41,120 THE COMBINED EFFECT OF 61 00:03:41,187 --> 00:03:41,387 EXPOSURES. 62 00:03:41,454 --> 00:03:44,724 MULTIPLE CHEMICAL AND STRESSOR 63 00:03:44,791 --> 00:03:44,991 MIXTURES. 64 00:03:45,058 --> 00:03:46,259 ADDITIONALLY, MIXERS PREDICTION. 65 00:03:46,326 --> 00:03:50,797 SO THIS IS A TOPIC THAT CUTS 66 00:03:50,863 --> 00:03:51,331 ACROSS BOTH EPIDEMIC AND 67 00:03:51,397 --> 00:03:53,967 TOXICOLOGY. 68 00:03:54,033 --> 00:03:57,770 AND THEN THE NEWEST AREA OF MY 69 00:03:57,837 --> 00:04:01,774 RESEARCH IS THINKING ABOUT HOW 70 00:04:01,841 --> 00:04:05,979 WE COULD INCORPORATE MECHANISMS 71 00:04:06,045 --> 00:04:06,813 INTO RISK ASSESSMENT. 72 00:04:06,879 --> 00:04:10,583 I'LL EXPLAIN THAT FURTHER SOON. 73 00:04:10,650 --> 00:04:14,287 I JUST WANTED TO SHOW YOU MY 74 00:04:14,354 --> 00:04:14,787 CURRENT RESEARCH GROUP. 75 00:04:14,854 --> 00:04:18,191 NOT JUST TO SHOW YOU A BUNCH OF 76 00:04:18,257 --> 00:04:20,259 BEAUTIFUL PEOPLE BUT TO 77 00:04:20,326 --> 00:04:23,796 HIGHLIGHT THE DIVERSITY OF 78 00:04:23,863 --> 00:04:25,098 EXPERIENCE AND TALENT IN THE 79 00:04:25,164 --> 00:04:25,365 GROUP. 80 00:04:25,431 --> 00:04:29,769 WE HAVE SOME PEOPLE THAT ARE 81 00:04:29,836 --> 00:04:33,539 TRAINED STATISTICIANS AND 82 00:04:33,606 --> 00:04:36,175 TRAINED ENGINEERS AND 83 00:04:36,242 --> 00:04:36,676 CLIMATOLOGISTS AS WELL. 84 00:04:36,743 --> 00:04:39,612 I'M VERY THANKFUL AND I'LL GET 85 00:04:39,679 --> 00:04:41,781 INTO THE END TO DISCUSS FUNDING 86 00:04:41,848 --> 00:04:45,618 BUT IT WAS PART OF AN NIEHS 87 00:04:45,685 --> 00:04:49,822 GROUP WE RECEIVED A CLIMATE AND 88 00:04:49,889 --> 00:05:00,333 HEALTH YOU BACKGROUND ON 89 00:05:09,809 --> 00:05:10,276 EXPOSOMICS. 90 00:05:10,343 --> 00:05:13,112 THE CONCEPT THAT'S IMPORTANT TO 91 00:05:13,179 --> 00:05:17,150 MY GROUP AND IMPORTANT TO NIEHS. 92 00:05:17,216 --> 00:05:20,753 SOMETHING HIGHLIGHTED IN THEIR 93 00:05:20,820 --> 00:05:22,221 CURRENT STRATEGIC PLAN AND IN 94 00:05:22,288 --> 00:05:23,456 THE NEXT FIVE-YEAR STRATEGIC 95 00:05:23,523 --> 00:05:24,590 PLAN. 96 00:05:24,657 --> 00:05:28,494 RELATED TO THAT IS AOPs OR 97 00:05:28,561 --> 00:05:31,297 ADVERSE OUTCOME PATHWAYS OR WHAT 98 00:05:31,364 --> 00:05:34,367 NORMAL SCIENTISTS CALL 99 00:05:34,434 --> 00:05:35,368 MECHANISTIC PATHWAYS. 100 00:05:35,435 --> 00:05:38,905 I'LL DISCUSS GEOTOX WHICH IS EYE 101 00:05:38,971 --> 00:05:43,109 FRAMEWORK DEVELOPED IN A RECENT 102 00:05:43,176 --> 00:05:44,310 PUBLICATION FROM A PREVIOUS 103 00:05:44,377 --> 00:05:45,178 POSTDOC IN MY GROUP AND WE'LL 104 00:05:45,244 --> 00:05:49,082 DISCUSS THE CASE STUDY WITH AIR 105 00:05:49,148 --> 00:05:52,652 POLLUTANT MIXTURES AND THEN I'LL 106 00:05:52,719 --> 00:05:54,887 DRASTICALLY SWITCH FRAMES FOR A 107 00:05:54,954 --> 00:06:01,094 MOMENT TO DISCUSS A RECENT PAPER 108 00:06:01,160 --> 00:06:02,395 ON CLASSIC SPATIAL EPIDEMIC 109 00:06:02,462 --> 00:06:04,130 ANALYSIS LOOKING AT FLOOD RISK 110 00:06:04,197 --> 00:06:07,734 AND HEALTH AFFECTS IN THE UNITED 111 00:06:07,800 --> 00:06:09,335 STATES. 112 00:06:09,402 --> 00:06:13,539 SO THAT SPATIAL EPI SECTION IS 113 00:06:13,606 --> 00:06:14,874 SANDWICHED IN THE MIDDLE OF 114 00:06:14,941 --> 00:06:20,012 EXPLAINING WHAT GEOTOX IS.AND 115 00:06:20,079 --> 00:06:23,116 EXAMPLE ON FLOOD RISK AND GOING 116 00:06:23,182 --> 00:06:33,392 TO END WITH 117 00:07:01,921 --> 00:07:05,191 RESULTS IN OUR HEALTH OUTCOMES 118 00:07:05,258 --> 00:07:08,928 FOR OBSERVED PHENOTYPE OR THE 119 00:07:08,995 --> 00:07:10,229 PHENO. 120 00:07:10,296 --> 00:07:13,065 SO WE HAVE A LOT OF ENDOGENOUS 121 00:07:13,132 --> 00:07:14,200 PROCESSES THAT ARE DISEASE STATE 122 00:07:14,267 --> 00:07:17,537 SO OF COURSE WE HAVE OUR GENOME 123 00:07:17,603 --> 00:07:19,172 AND TRANSCRIPTOME AND LEARNING 124 00:07:19,238 --> 00:07:21,674 MORE AND MORE ABOUT THE OTHER 125 00:07:21,741 --> 00:07:29,782 OMS, PROTEOME AND EPIGENOME AND 126 00:07:29,849 --> 00:07:30,316 METABOLOME THEY ALL HAVE 127 00:07:30,383 --> 00:07:30,917 IMPORTANT ENDOGENOUS FUNCTION 128 00:07:30,983 --> 00:07:40,159 RESULT FROM THINGS HOW WE LOOKED 129 00:07:40,226 --> 00:07:40,993 TO DISEASES WE MIGHT GET. 130 00:07:41,060 --> 00:07:41,861 BUT OF COURSE WE KNOW THAT'S 131 00:07:41,928 --> 00:07:52,505 ONLY A ROUGHLY AH ENDOGENOUS OM 132 00:08:09,088 --> 00:08:10,523 PLUS THE EXPOSOME. 133 00:08:10,590 --> 00:08:12,158 IT WAS INTRODUCED IN A PAPER IN 134 00:08:12,225 --> 00:08:14,760 2005 IN THE ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH 135 00:08:14,827 --> 00:08:18,231 WORLD THIS HAS TAKEN ON 136 00:08:18,297 --> 00:08:18,497 TRACTION. 137 00:08:18,564 --> 00:08:20,700 AND THE BASIC PREMISE IS WE 138 00:08:20,766 --> 00:08:22,435 CAN'T JUST STUDY ONE EXPOSURE 139 00:08:22,501 --> 00:08:25,504 AND ONE HEALTH IMPACT BECAUSE 140 00:08:25,571 --> 00:08:29,876 YOU'RE JUST GOING TO MISS WAY 141 00:08:29,942 --> 00:08:30,443 TOO MUCH AND REALLY IT'S A 142 00:08:30,509 --> 00:08:32,912 MULTITUDE OF FACTORS THAT 143 00:08:32,979 --> 00:08:34,213 COMBINE IN COMPLEX WAYS TO 144 00:08:34,280 --> 00:08:35,882 RESULT IN OUR OBSERVED HEALTH 145 00:08:35,948 --> 00:08:37,216 OUTCOMES. 146 00:08:37,283 --> 00:08:41,721 SO WHEN WE TALK ABOUT EXPOSOME 147 00:08:41,787 --> 00:08:48,261 WE TRY TO BE ALL ENCOMPASS AG 148 00:08:48,327 --> 00:08:49,128 FROM CLASSIC CHEMICAL FROM AIR 149 00:08:49,195 --> 00:08:51,197 POLLUTION AND OTHER MODELLING IN 150 00:08:51,264 --> 00:08:53,799 GROUND WATER AND OF COURSE NEED 151 00:08:53,866 --> 00:08:55,167 TO INCLUDE LIFESTYLE FACTORS 152 00:08:55,234 --> 00:08:57,303 FROM PHYSICAL ACTIVITY, SLEEP, 153 00:08:57,370 --> 00:09:00,406 DIET, DRUG USE, THOSE KINDS OF 154 00:09:00,473 --> 00:09:05,778 THINGS. 155 00:09:05,845 --> 00:09:07,613 THE ECHO -- ECO SYSTEM AND WALK 156 00:09:07,680 --> 00:09:13,586 ACT TO GREEN SPACE AND HEALTH 157 00:09:13,653 --> 00:09:17,790 CARE. 158 00:09:17,857 --> 00:09:18,090 AND 159 00:09:18,157 --> 00:09:28,467 [AUDIO DIGITIZING] 160 00:09:41,614 --> 00:09:42,114 AND THEY ACCOUNT FOR ALL THESE 161 00:09:42,181 --> 00:09:43,883 FACTORS TO DELETERIOUS HEALTH 162 00:09:43,950 --> 00:09:44,116 AFFECTS. 163 00:09:44,183 --> 00:09:45,918 THIS IS GOING TO BE AN IMPORTANT 164 00:09:45,985 --> 00:09:49,188 PART OF THE MECHANISTIC APPROACH 165 00:09:49,255 --> 00:09:49,989 AND WANTED TO GIVE A BACKGROUND 166 00:09:50,056 --> 00:09:51,457 ON AOPs. 167 00:09:51,524 --> 00:10:02,068 IT'S A TOXICOLOGY TERM ADVERSE 168 00:10:07,606 --> 00:10:08,074 OUTCOME PATHWAY BUT THERE'S 169 00:10:08,140 --> 00:10:08,674 OTHER SCIENTIFIC DISCIPLINES 170 00:10:08,741 --> 00:10:09,175 HAVE SIMILAR CONSTRUCTS. 171 00:10:09,241 --> 00:10:12,511 I THINK MECHANISTIC PATHWAYS OR 172 00:10:12,578 --> 00:10:13,779 PATHWAYS AND AOP TRIES TO BE 173 00:10:13,846 --> 00:10:15,648 EXPLICIT WITH THE KEY STEPS THAT 174 00:10:15,715 --> 00:10:20,119 LEAD FROM THE MOLECULAR 175 00:10:20,186 --> 00:10:20,619 INTERACTION AT THE VERY 176 00:10:20,686 --> 00:10:21,220 BEGINNING THROUGH A SERIES OF 177 00:10:21,287 --> 00:10:22,254 CASCADING EVENTS THAT LEAD TO 178 00:10:22,321 --> 00:10:25,291 ORGANISM AND POPULATION ARE 179 00:10:25,358 --> 00:10:25,558 RESPONSES. 180 00:10:25,624 --> 00:10:27,626 SO SOME OF THE KEY THINGS IS 181 00:10:27,693 --> 00:10:28,594 THIS MACRO MOLECULAR INTERACTION 182 00:10:28,661 --> 00:10:30,296 SO WHEN A CHEMICAL OR STRESSOR, 183 00:10:30,363 --> 00:10:33,799 LIKE WHAT IS THE FIRST THING IT 184 00:10:33,866 --> 00:10:35,668 INTERACTS WITH BIO LOGICALLY 185 00:10:35,735 --> 00:10:41,741 WHETHER IT'S RECEPTOR LIGAND AND 186 00:10:41,807 --> 00:10:44,243 THAT CREATES CELLULAR RESPONSES 187 00:10:44,310 --> 00:10:45,978 FROM CHANGES IN GENE EXPRESSION 188 00:10:46,045 --> 00:10:48,414 OR SOME ALTERED SIGNALLING 189 00:10:48,481 --> 00:10:52,084 PATHWAY AND THAT CAN RESULT IN 190 00:10:52,151 --> 00:10:54,153 CELLS AND ORGANS AND THERE'S 191 00:10:54,220 --> 00:10:56,455 ORGAN RESPONSES ON ALTERED 192 00:10:56,522 --> 00:10:57,656 PHYSIOLOGY OR DEVELOPMENT AND 193 00:10:57,723 --> 00:11:01,427 THE ORGAN RESULTS. 194 00:11:01,494 --> 00:11:06,432 YOU CAN SEE MOVING UP TO THE 195 00:11:06,499 --> 00:11:08,701 CASCADE STEP TO ORGANISM 196 00:11:08,768 --> 00:11:10,236 RESPONSES AND PHENOTYPE IN AN 197 00:11:10,302 --> 00:11:13,272 INDIVIDUAL OR LETHALITY AND OF 198 00:11:13,339 --> 00:11:14,340 COURSE POPULATION RESPONSES 199 00:11:14,407 --> 00:11:17,777 RESULT IN CHANGES IN POPULATION 200 00:11:17,843 --> 00:11:18,644 STRUCTURE OR DISEASE PREVALENCE 201 00:11:18,711 --> 00:11:23,916 AND THINGS LIKE THAT. 202 00:11:23,983 --> 00:11:29,255 THE AOP AND THE ORGANIZATION OF 203 00:11:29,321 --> 00:11:34,093 ACD MAINTAINS AOPs. 204 00:11:34,160 --> 00:11:37,329 IT'S REALLY ABOUT TRYING TO 205 00:11:37,396 --> 00:11:40,132 ARTICULATE WHERE EACH PIECE CAN 206 00:11:40,199 --> 00:11:43,669 BE TESTED VERY EXPLICITLY AND 207 00:11:43,736 --> 00:11:45,671 THAT THE END ORGANISM OR 208 00:11:45,738 --> 00:11:47,440 POPULATION RESPONSE IS RELEVANT 209 00:11:47,506 --> 00:11:51,377 FOR ARE RISK ASSESSMENT. 210 00:11:51,444 --> 00:11:54,146 SO AOPs CAN BE SIMPLE LINEAR 211 00:11:54,213 --> 00:11:56,348 THINGS WHERE WE HAVE THE 212 00:11:56,415 --> 00:11:56,982 MOLECULAR INITIATING EVENT. 213 00:11:57,049 --> 00:11:59,952 THE FIRST INTERACTION, THE FIRST 214 00:12:00,019 --> 00:12:01,153 BIOLOGICAL INTERACTION OF A 215 00:12:01,220 --> 00:12:02,855 CHEMICAL AND THEN YOU HAVE WHAT 216 00:12:02,922 --> 00:12:04,723 YOU CALL KEY EVENTS WHICH ARE 217 00:12:04,790 --> 00:12:07,827 ANY STEP IN THE MECHANISM AND IT 218 00:12:07,893 --> 00:12:10,796 CAN BE ONE OR MANY THAT LEADS TO 219 00:12:10,863 --> 00:12:14,934 AN ADVERSE OUTCOME OUR CAN HAVE 220 00:12:15,000 --> 00:12:15,901 MORE COMPLEX ONES LIKE THIS 221 00:12:15,968 --> 00:12:19,004 WHERE YOU HAVE AND THIS WOULD BE 222 00:12:19,071 --> 00:12:21,107 AN EXAMPLE OF LIKE A GOOD 223 00:12:21,173 --> 00:12:24,844 APPROACH FOR MIXTURES BECAUSE 224 00:12:24,910 --> 00:12:27,713 YOU CAN HAVE MIXTURES OR 225 00:12:27,780 --> 00:12:29,315 EXPOSOMES OR AN ADVERSE OUTCOMES 226 00:12:29,381 --> 00:12:29,782 AND HAVE CHEMICAL A, 227 00:12:34,153 --> 00:12:37,690 B AND C THAT ALL HAVE DIFFERENT 228 00:12:37,756 --> 00:12:38,324 INITIAL MOLECULAR EVENTS WHERE 229 00:12:38,390 --> 00:12:40,459 THEY INTERACT WITH THE BODY AND 230 00:12:40,526 --> 00:12:43,329 AT SOME POINT THEY CONVERGE INTO 231 00:12:43,395 --> 00:12:46,632 THE PATHWAY THAT LEADS TO THIS 232 00:12:46,699 --> 00:12:47,766 OUTCOME. 233 00:12:47,833 --> 00:12:54,073 ESSENTIALLY YOU HAVE MULTIPLE 234 00:12:54,140 --> 00:12:54,707 WAYS FOR CHEMICALS TO EVENT TO 235 00:12:54,773 --> 00:12:56,475 LEAD TO AN ADVERSE OUTCOME AND 236 00:12:56,542 --> 00:12:58,944 MAYBE THIS DIVERGES AND A KEY 237 00:12:59,011 --> 00:13:00,479 EVENT CAN LEAD TO MULTIPLE 238 00:13:00,546 --> 00:13:04,717 ADVERSE OUTCOMES. 239 00:13:04,783 --> 00:13:08,454 SO IN MY GROUP I LIKE TO THEN 240 00:13:08,521 --> 00:13:12,958 TAKE THIS MECHANISTIC APPROACH 241 00:13:13,025 --> 00:13:17,796 AND FRAME IT WITHIN GEOSPATIAL 242 00:13:17,863 --> 00:13:19,465 EXPOSURE AND THE GEO TOX 243 00:13:19,532 --> 00:13:20,232 CONCEPT. 244 00:13:20,299 --> 00:13:23,502 SIMILAR TO A PATHWAY THAT THESE 245 00:13:23,569 --> 00:13:24,837 EVENTS MUST OCCUR FOR THE NEXT 246 00:13:24,904 --> 00:13:28,774 THING TO HAPPEN, IF WE TAKE THIS 247 00:13:28,841 --> 00:13:29,975 BACK TO EXPOSURES THEN YOU CAN 248 00:13:30,042 --> 00:13:32,578 SEE HOW THESE EVENTS MUST OCCUR 249 00:13:32,645 --> 00:13:34,613 FOR US TO GET TO SOME INDIVIDUAL 250 00:13:34,680 --> 00:13:35,915 POPULATION OUTCOME. 251 00:13:35,981 --> 00:13:38,951 FOR INSTANCE, THERE'S NO 252 00:13:39,018 --> 00:13:40,719 EXTERNAL EXPOSURE WITHOUT A 253 00:13:40,786 --> 00:13:40,953 SOURCE. 254 00:13:41,020 --> 00:13:44,356 TYPICALLY WE'RE LOOKING AT 255 00:13:44,423 --> 00:13:46,992 ANTHOPOGENIC THOUGH THERE'S 256 00:13:47,059 --> 00:13:48,127 OTHER SOURCES IF YOU START THINK 257 00:13:48,194 --> 00:13:50,396 OF THINGS LIKE ARSENIC OR 258 00:13:50,462 --> 00:13:51,297 ANOTHER NATURALLY OCCURRING 259 00:13:51,363 --> 00:13:51,897 METALS. 260 00:13:51,964 --> 00:13:53,599 YOU HAVE TO HAVE A SOURCE FOR 261 00:13:53,666 --> 00:13:55,734 THE EXPOSURE FOR THERE TO BE 262 00:13:55,801 --> 00:13:57,603 SOME TARGET DOSE TO AN ORGAN, 263 00:13:57,670 --> 00:14:01,040 THERE'S GOT TO BE SOMETHING 264 00:14:01,106 --> 00:14:01,574 HAPPENING EXTERNALLY. 265 00:14:01,640 --> 00:14:04,710 AND SO ON AND HERE WE'RE KIND OF 266 00:14:04,777 --> 00:14:05,778 IN THE PATHWAY I WAS JUST 267 00:14:05,844 --> 00:14:11,083 EXPLAINING. 268 00:14:11,150 --> 00:14:13,786 SPATIAL EPIDEMIOLOGY OFTEN TAKES 269 00:14:13,852 --> 00:14:16,155 MEASURES BE AN EXTERNAL OR 270 00:14:16,222 --> 00:14:17,723 INTERNAL EXPOSURE AND POPULATION 271 00:14:17,790 --> 00:14:19,358 OUTCOMES AROUND DOES AN ANALYSIS 272 00:14:19,425 --> 00:14:19,692 HERE. 273 00:14:19,758 --> 00:14:26,799 IN A SENSE IT OFTEN BYPASSES THE 274 00:14:26,865 --> 00:14:27,066 MECHANISM. 275 00:14:27,132 --> 00:14:29,368 AND SO WHAT WE'RE TRYING TO DO 276 00:14:29,435 --> 00:14:33,772 WITH GEO TOX IS GO THROUGH THE 277 00:14:33,839 --> 00:14:37,042 ENTIRE MECHANISTIC PROCESS TO 278 00:14:37,109 --> 00:14:40,246 GET A MORE COMPLETE 279 00:14:40,312 --> 00:14:44,917 UNDERSTANDING OF THE RISK. 280 00:14:44,984 --> 00:14:45,417 THANKFULLY THERE'S TWO 281 00:14:45,484 --> 00:14:48,220 FRAMEWORKS THAT HAVE BEEN 282 00:14:48,287 --> 00:14:50,623 OUTLINED THAT ENCOMPASS THIS 283 00:14:50,689 --> 00:14:57,963 WHOLE CASCADE OF EVENTS. 284 00:14:58,030 --> 00:14:58,731 I DISCUSSED THE ADVERSE OUTCOME 285 00:14:58,797 --> 00:14:58,964 PATHWAY. 286 00:14:59,031 --> 00:14:59,932 ACTUALLY, SOCIETY OR SOCIETY FOR 287 00:14:59,999 --> 00:15:03,402 THE ADVERSE OUTCOME PATHWAYS AND 288 00:15:03,469 --> 00:15:06,905 IF YOU GO TO RECENTLY STARTED 289 00:15:06,972 --> 00:15:14,647 ATTENDING THE SOCIETY OF 290 00:15:14,713 --> 00:15:15,214 TOXICOLOGY AND I'M A MEMBER 291 00:15:15,281 --> 00:15:15,814 THERE AND IT'S A VERY POPULAR 292 00:15:15,881 --> 00:15:17,216 AND VERY ACTIVE RESEARCH SPACE 293 00:15:17,283 --> 00:15:17,449 FOR AOP. 294 00:15:17,516 --> 00:15:18,350 WE HAVE A VERY LARGE RESEARCH 295 00:15:18,417 --> 00:15:24,423 COMMUNITY WORKING ON AOPs. 296 00:15:24,490 --> 00:15:32,698 AND EXPOSURE PATHWAY IS A WAY TO 297 00:15:32,765 --> 00:15:33,332 ARTICULATE MULTIPLE EXPOSURES IN 298 00:15:33,399 --> 00:15:33,932 A SPATIAL SENSE AND HOW THEY 299 00:15:33,999 --> 00:15:34,566 MIGHT TRANSFORM AND CROSS MEDIA 300 00:15:34,633 --> 00:15:36,802 AND THINGS LIKE THAT. 301 00:15:36,869 --> 00:15:39,571 BUT REALLY THE KEY THING IS WE 302 00:15:39,638 --> 00:15:42,341 TALK ABOUT EXPOSURES IN A 303 00:15:42,408 --> 00:15:45,311 GEOSPATIAL SENSE. 304 00:15:45,377 --> 00:15:49,648 WHERE GEOSPATIAL EXPOSURE MIGHT 305 00:15:49,715 --> 00:15:59,491 END IS WHERE THE AOP BEGINS. 306 00:15:59,558 --> 00:16:00,125 SO WE CAN LINK THAT TOGETHER AND 307 00:16:00,192 --> 00:16:00,759 ARE ABLE TO USE VARIOUS VOWELS 308 00:16:00,826 --> 00:16:05,431 AND TOOLS TO COMPLETE THE WHOLE 309 00:16:05,497 --> 00:16:07,700 SEQUENCE THE CONTINUUM FROM 310 00:16:07,766 --> 00:16:08,233 ENVIRONMENTAL SOURCES TO 311 00:16:08,300 --> 00:16:10,035 INDIVIDUAL AND POPULATION 312 00:16:10,102 --> 00:16:11,870 OUTCOMES. 313 00:16:11,937 --> 00:16:13,772 SO THIS IS A SUMMARY OF WHAT I 314 00:16:13,839 --> 00:16:17,743 WAS SAYING. 315 00:16:17,810 --> 00:16:20,846 AOP IS AN EXTERNAL ANALYSIS OF 316 00:16:20,913 --> 00:16:24,116 SOURCE MEDIA AND TRANSFORMATIONS 317 00:16:24,183 --> 00:16:27,619 AND PROVIDE A TARGET OR PROCESS 318 00:16:27,686 --> 00:16:28,887 AND OUTCOME CONSIDERED RELEVANT 319 00:16:28,954 --> 00:16:29,421 TO RISK ASSESSMENT. 320 00:16:29,488 --> 00:16:33,258 THAT'S A KEY POINT THERE. 321 00:16:33,325 --> 00:16:38,897 GEO TOX EXPLICITLY COMBINES 322 00:16:38,964 --> 00:16:39,098 THOSE. 323 00:16:39,164 --> 00:16:45,037 NOW WE'LL GET INTO OUR FIRST 324 00:16:45,104 --> 00:16:51,176 PAPER ON GEO TOX GEOSPATIAL 325 00:16:51,243 --> 00:16:52,778 MOTIONING APPROACH TO 326 00:16:52,845 --> 00:16:53,879 QUANTIFYING THE RISK OF EXPOSURE 327 00:16:53,946 --> 00:17:04,656 TO ENVIRONMENTAL CHEM A MULTI-G 328 00:17:43,695 --> 00:17:47,833 INSTITUTION GOING ON MORE THAN A 329 00:17:47,900 --> 00:17:50,602 DECADE THAT HAS TESTED MORE THAN 330 00:17:50,669 --> 00:17:52,571 10,000 CHEMICALS ACROSS HUNDREDS 331 00:17:52,638 --> 00:17:55,274 OF DIFFERENT ASSAYS. 332 00:17:55,340 --> 00:18:00,412 SO, IT'S A GOLD MINE FOR 333 00:18:00,479 --> 00:18:02,181 UNDERSTANDING HAZARDOUS RESPONSE 334 00:18:02,247 --> 00:18:04,450 FOR CHEMICALS. 335 00:18:04,516 --> 00:18:07,085 ADDITIONALLY, ONCE WE HAVE 336 00:18:07,152 --> 00:18:08,220 EXTERNAL EXPOSURE WE USE WHAT'S 337 00:18:08,287 --> 00:18:13,392 CALLED TOXICO KINETICS OR YOU 338 00:18:13,459 --> 00:18:16,161 MAY BE FAMILIAR WITH PHARMACO 339 00:18:16,228 --> 00:18:18,197 KINETICS FROM MODELS THAT ALLOWS 340 00:18:18,263 --> 00:18:21,800 US TO MODEL THE ABSORPTION, 341 00:18:21,867 --> 00:18:32,144 DISTRIBUTION AND 342 00:22:55,974 --> 00:22:59,377 MORE -- THIS IS EARLY ON THE 343 00:22:59,444 --> 00:23:00,712 PATHWAY OF WHAT MIGHT EVENTUALLY 344 00:23:00,779 --> 00:23:03,982 BECOME ADVERSE OUTCOMES. 345 00:23:04,049 --> 00:23:08,687 SO IT'S INHERENTLY PROTECTIVE. 346 00:23:08,754 --> 00:23:11,623 THIS WOULD BE EXTREMELY SCARY IF 347 00:23:11,690 --> 00:23:15,627 THIS WERE A MAP OF LUNG CANCER 348 00:23:15,694 --> 00:23:17,763 OR SOMETHING AND IT'S NOT IT'S 349 00:23:17,829 --> 00:23:22,300 PERHAPS ON THE PATHWAY TO LUNG 350 00:23:22,367 --> 00:23:26,204 CANCER OR OTHER HEALTH EFFECTS 351 00:23:26,271 --> 00:23:36,715 BUT IT'S MUCH EARLIER ON. 352 00:23:38,183 --> 00:23:41,086 WE'RE ABLE TO MAP THESE AOP 353 00:23:41,153 --> 00:23:42,320 EVENTS THE EARLY STAGES OF 354 00:23:42,387 --> 00:23:43,288 MECHANISTIC PATHWAY. 355 00:23:43,355 --> 00:23:45,357 YOU CAN IMAGINE WHAT WE COULD 356 00:23:45,423 --> 00:23:47,125 USE THIS FOR CURRENTLY THERE 357 00:23:47,192 --> 00:23:50,562 MIGHT BE FOLKS INTERESTED IN 358 00:23:50,629 --> 00:23:55,500 DOING THAT THROUGH THIS IS LARGE 359 00:23:55,567 --> 00:24:00,071 SCALE MOLECULAR EPIDEMIOLOGY AND 360 00:24:00,138 --> 00:24:01,940 MOLECULAR EPI PEOPLE TAKE BLOOD 361 00:24:02,007 --> 00:24:04,176 OR OTHER TISSUE MEASUREMENTS AND 362 00:24:04,242 --> 00:24:06,478 USE THAT AS A BIOMARKER FOR 363 00:24:06,545 --> 00:24:07,179 EXPOSURE. 364 00:24:07,245 --> 00:24:09,414 WELL, WE CAN POTENTIALLY GET AT 365 00:24:09,481 --> 00:24:17,789 SOME OF THOSE BIOMARKERS IF THE 366 00:24:17,856 --> 00:24:19,925 RIGHT IN VITRO DATA EXISTS BUT 367 00:24:19,991 --> 00:24:21,459 THERE'S TIME AND MONEY 368 00:24:21,526 --> 00:24:25,430 CONSTRAINTS WITH MOLECULAR 369 00:24:25,497 --> 00:24:26,298 APPROACHES AND THEN WE CAN OF 370 00:24:26,364 --> 00:24:32,404 COURSE QUANTIFY THE RISK OF 371 00:24:32,470 --> 00:24:35,607 COMBINED EXPOSURES GIVEN ALL 372 00:24:35,674 --> 00:24:36,541 THESE CHEMICALS IMPACT THE SAME 373 00:24:36,608 --> 00:24:39,311 PATHWAY AND WE HAVE MIXTURES 374 00:24:39,377 --> 00:24:42,647 THEORY FOR PREDICTING THIS. 375 00:24:42,714 --> 00:24:45,750 SO THERE'S OF COURSE MANY MANY 376 00:24:45,817 --> 00:24:48,186 LIMITATIONS AND THIS REPRESENTS 377 00:24:48,253 --> 00:24:50,822 AN IMPORTANT ASPECT OF MY 378 00:24:50,889 --> 00:24:52,224 RESEARCH. 379 00:24:52,290 --> 00:24:54,259 ONE OF THEM IS THE INFINITE 380 00:24:54,326 --> 00:24:55,527 MEASURES PROBLEM AND I HAVE A 381 00:24:55,594 --> 00:24:56,828 POSTDOC THAT'S BEEN WORKING ON 382 00:24:56,895 --> 00:24:57,395 THAT. 383 00:24:57,462 --> 00:25:03,268 THE IDEA IS THAT WE CAN'T 384 00:25:03,335 --> 00:25:05,737 FEASIBLY DO EXPERIMENTS ON THE 385 00:25:05,804 --> 00:25:07,706 COMBINED DOSE RESPONSE FOR 386 00:25:07,772 --> 00:25:08,707 MIXTURES BECAUSE THERE'S TOO 387 00:25:08,773 --> 00:25:12,177 MANY COMBINATIONS OF CHEMICALS 388 00:25:12,244 --> 00:25:14,145 AND YOU CHANGE THE PROPORTION OF 389 00:25:14,212 --> 00:25:17,782 CHEMICALS AND IT'S A DIFFERENT 390 00:25:17,849 --> 00:25:19,584 MIXTURE. 391 00:25:19,651 --> 00:25:23,088 IT'S A LAMP-POST PROBLEM FOR 392 00:25:23,154 --> 00:25:25,457 EXPOSURES AND WE HAVE DATA ON 393 00:25:25,523 --> 00:25:29,594 2.5 BUT NOT FOR VOCs AND SURFACE 394 00:25:29,661 --> 00:25:32,063 WATER AND THERE IS A FRACTION OF 395 00:25:32,130 --> 00:25:34,499 WHAT IS AVAILABLE FOR AIR 396 00:25:34,566 --> 00:25:36,668 POLLUTION SO WE REALLY NEED TO 397 00:25:36,735 --> 00:25:40,538 CONTINUE WORKING ON EXPOSURE 398 00:25:40,605 --> 00:25:41,907 MODELS WHICH WE'VE ALSO DONE IN 399 00:25:41,973 --> 00:25:43,675 OUR GROUP. 400 00:25:43,742 --> 00:25:47,612 IT'S A BIG DATA INTEGRATION 401 00:25:47,679 --> 00:25:49,014 PROBLEM WHICH INTRODUCES 402 00:25:49,080 --> 00:25:50,916 UNCERTAINLY AT EACH STEP OF THE 403 00:25:50,982 --> 00:25:51,182 FRAMEWORK. 404 00:25:51,249 --> 00:25:56,721 WE DID DO A MONTE CARLO 405 00:25:56,788 --> 00:25:58,290 ASSESSMENT IN THE PAPER AND 406 00:25:58,356 --> 00:26:00,825 FOUND THEY CONTRIBUTED TO THE 407 00:26:00,892 --> 00:26:01,526 PROCESS. 408 00:26:01,593 --> 00:26:05,764 THERE WAS NOTHING GLARING THAT 409 00:26:05,830 --> 00:26:07,832 WAS FOCUS YOUR EFFORT HERE AND 410 00:26:07,899 --> 00:26:18,176 YOU'LL BE GOOD. 411 00:26:18,910 --> 00:26:19,377 EACH PART CONTRIBUTED ROUGHLY 412 00:26:19,444 --> 00:26:19,911 EQUALLY TO THE OVER ALL 413 00:26:19,978 --> 00:26:21,813 UNCERTAINTY AND PATHWAYS THAT 414 00:26:21,880 --> 00:26:25,450 ARE COMPLEX. 415 00:26:25,517 --> 00:26:26,484 THANKFULLY THERE'S ENTIRE FIELD 416 00:26:26,551 --> 00:26:29,788 OF RESEARCHERS THAT ARE WORKING 417 00:26:29,854 --> 00:26:37,228 ON MECHANISTIC PATHWAYS WE KCAN 418 00:26:37,295 --> 00:26:38,330 ACT ON. 419 00:26:38,396 --> 00:26:40,165 SWITCHING GEARS FROM THE SPATIAL 420 00:26:40,231 --> 00:26:41,967 EPI PIECE AND BACKING UP FROM 421 00:26:42,033 --> 00:26:44,235 THE MECHANISTIC FOR A MOMENT AND 422 00:26:44,302 --> 00:26:48,073 THEN I'LL DISCUSS HOW WE MIGHT 423 00:26:48,139 --> 00:26:49,708 BRING MECHANISTIC INTO CLIMATE 424 00:26:49,774 --> 00:26:56,848 AND HEALTH RISK. 425 00:26:56,915 --> 00:27:01,720 THIS PAPER OR THIS WORK WAS 426 00:27:01,786 --> 00:27:05,590 RECENTLY ACCEPTED AND IN THE 427 00:27:05,657 --> 00:27:07,559 AMERICAN JOURNAL OF EPIDEMIOLOGY 428 00:27:07,625 --> 00:27:10,261 WITH A SUMMER INTERN OF MINE AND 429 00:27:10,328 --> 00:27:11,896 WE KEPT WORK ON IT AND THE TITLE 430 00:27:11,963 --> 00:27:15,200 IS ASSOCIATIONS FLOOD RISK AND 431 00:27:15,266 --> 00:27:15,934 THE UNITED STATES CENSUS TRACK 432 00:27:16,001 --> 00:27:17,769 LEVEL OUTCOMES. 433 00:27:17,836 --> 00:27:25,777 AS BACKGROUND, CLIMATE CHANGE IS 434 00:27:25,844 --> 00:27:29,381 CAUSING THINGS LIKE INCREASED 435 00:27:29,447 --> 00:27:31,716 SEVERITY OF FLOOD AND FAIRLY 436 00:27:31,783 --> 00:27:33,785 HETEROGENOUS AND SOME PLACES 437 00:27:33,852 --> 00:27:37,989 WILL EXPERIENCE MORE DROUGHT AND 438 00:27:38,056 --> 00:27:40,492 SOME WILL EXPERIENCE FLOOD. 439 00:27:40,558 --> 00:27:43,661 PLACES THAT HISTORICALLY HAVE 440 00:27:43,728 --> 00:27:45,797 NOT HAD MAJOR FLOODING HAVE 441 00:27:45,864 --> 00:27:47,999 BECOME EPICENTER FOR FLOOD RISK. 442 00:27:48,066 --> 00:27:49,667 THERE'S FEW STUDIES ON THE 443 00:27:49,734 --> 00:27:54,139 LONG-TERM IMPACTS OF FLOODING. 444 00:27:54,205 --> 00:27:55,473 WE CONSIDER IT'S A NATURAL 445 00:27:55,540 --> 00:27:56,474 DISASTER. 446 00:27:56,541 --> 00:27:57,909 YOU HAVE TO DEAL WITH IT IN THE 447 00:27:57,976 --> 00:28:00,178 MOMENT BUT THEN WHAT ARE THE 448 00:28:00,245 --> 00:28:03,481 LONG-TERM IMPACTS OF THAT? 449 00:28:03,548 --> 00:28:06,117 OUR OBJECTIVES WERE TO EVALUATE 450 00:28:06,184 --> 00:28:08,186 THE ASSOCIATIONS BETWEEN 451 00:28:08,253 --> 00:28:09,187 LONG-TERM FLOOD RISK AND 452 00:28:09,254 --> 00:28:10,655 MULTIPLE HEALTH OUTCOMES. 453 00:28:10,722 --> 00:28:14,859 WE'RE LOOKING AT CORONARY HEART 454 00:28:14,926 --> 00:28:16,694 DISEASE, HIGH FLOOD PRESSURE AND 455 00:28:16,761 --> 00:28:20,131 ASTHMA AND POOR MENTAL HEALTH 456 00:28:20,198 --> 00:28:22,700 AND LOOK AT SOCIAL 457 00:28:22,767 --> 00:28:23,034 VULNERABILITY. 458 00:28:23,101 --> 00:28:28,306 SO OUR OVER ALL APPROACH IS TO 459 00:28:28,373 --> 00:28:29,607 USE U.S.-WIDE CENSUS TRACK LEVEL 460 00:28:29,674 --> 00:28:30,375 PREVALENCE ASSESSMENT. 461 00:28:30,442 --> 00:28:32,977 WE HAVE FLOOD DATA FROM THE 462 00:28:33,044 --> 00:28:37,615 FIRST STREET FOUNDATION AND 463 00:28:37,682 --> 00:28:38,950 WE'RE UTILIZING A SPATIAL 464 00:28:39,017 --> 00:28:40,985 BAYESIAN REGRESSIVE MODEL AND 465 00:28:41,052 --> 00:28:49,727 GOING TO STRATIFY BY THE SDI. 466 00:28:49,794 --> 00:28:53,765 THE FLOOD RISK DATA COMES FROM 467 00:28:53,832 --> 00:28:54,799 FLOOD RISK FOUNDATION. 468 00:28:54,866 --> 00:28:56,701 I'VE BEEN WORKING WITH THEM A 469 00:28:56,768 --> 00:28:59,404 WHILE AND IN THEIR EARLY 470 00:28:59,471 --> 00:29:01,840 MEETINGS BEFORE THEY WERE EVEN 471 00:29:01,906 --> 00:29:05,944 CALLED FIRST READ BUT THEIR DATA 472 00:29:06,010 --> 00:29:13,451 IS IN A LOT OF PLACES NOW AND 473 00:29:13,518 --> 00:29:14,085 RECOMMEND GOING TO THEIR WEBSITE 474 00:29:14,152 --> 00:29:16,588 IF YOU CAN. 475 00:29:16,654 --> 00:29:17,789 THEY QUANTIFIED FLOOD RISK FOR 476 00:29:17,856 --> 00:29:24,162 EVERY PARCEL IN THE ENTIRE 477 00:29:24,229 --> 00:29:33,538 UNITED STATES. 478 00:29:33,605 --> 00:29:35,039 I TRUST THEIR MODEL. 479 00:29:35,106 --> 00:29:36,241 THEY DEVELOPED FLOOD RISK 480 00:29:36,307 --> 00:29:38,409 ESTIMATES FOR THE ENTIRE UNITED 481 00:29:38,476 --> 00:29:40,245 STATES AND THEN THEY DEVELOPED 482 00:29:40,311 --> 00:29:41,412 THEM FOR CURRENT DATE AND THEN 483 00:29:41,479 --> 00:29:43,615 REALLY THE KEY THING IS THEY 484 00:29:43,681 --> 00:29:45,884 INTEGRATED THEM INTO CLIMATE 485 00:29:45,950 --> 00:29:47,485 MODELS AND HAVE FLOOD RISK 486 00:29:47,552 --> 00:29:49,387 ESTIMATES FOR THE NEXT 800 487 00:29:49,454 --> 00:29:49,754 YEARS. 488 00:29:49,821 --> 00:29:51,489 THEY HAVE LIKE A 50-YEAR 489 00:29:51,556 --> 00:29:53,992 ESTIMATE AND 100-YEAR ESTIMATE. 490 00:29:54,058 --> 00:29:59,631 THIS IS DOWN TO LIKE WHAT WOULD 491 00:29:59,697 --> 00:30:07,272 BE THE DEPTH OF FLOOD INUNDATION 492 00:30:07,338 --> 00:30:09,307 AND DEVELOPED THE FLOOD FACTOR A 493 00:30:09,374 --> 00:30:12,577 METRIC FROM 1 TO 10, 1 BEING NO 494 00:30:12,644 --> 00:30:14,279 RISK TO 10 BEING SEVERE RISK. 495 00:30:14,345 --> 00:30:18,516 AND THAT INCORPORATES BOTH 496 00:30:18,583 --> 00:30:20,218 EXPECTED FREQUENCY AND SEVERITY. 497 00:30:20,285 --> 00:30:23,688 SO YOU COULD IMAGINE YOU COULD 498 00:30:23,755 --> 00:30:25,490 GET LIKE A MEDIUM RISK FROM 499 00:30:25,557 --> 00:30:28,026 BEING NOT SEVERE BUT FREQUENT 500 00:30:28,092 --> 00:30:31,763 FLOOD OR A RISK FROM A VERY 501 00:30:31,829 --> 00:30:35,066 CATASTROPHIC FLOOD. 502 00:30:35,133 --> 00:30:40,071 AND THIS INCLUDES BOTH COASTAL 503 00:30:40,138 --> 00:30:49,480 FLOODING AND INLAND PERUVIAL 504 00:30:49,547 --> 00:30:53,351 FLOODING AND I WENT TO MY 505 00:30:53,418 --> 00:30:54,786 NEIGHBORHOOD IN DURHAM, NORTH 506 00:30:54,852 --> 00:30:56,754 CAROLINA AND THERE'S PONDS. 507 00:30:56,821 --> 00:30:58,890 OUR NEIGHBORHOOD HAS A DECENT 508 00:30:58,957 --> 00:31:00,658 SIZED POND IN IT. 509 00:31:00,725 --> 00:31:04,562 IT'S AN URBAN DAM. 510 00:31:04,629 --> 00:31:06,731 AND WE'VE BEEN HAVING ISSUES ON 511 00:31:06,798 --> 00:31:08,266 THE URBAN DAM WHERE IT NEEDS TO 512 00:31:08,333 --> 00:31:10,768 BE ACTIVELY MANAGED AND IF YOU 513 00:31:10,835 --> 00:31:14,706 LOOK AT THEIR FLOOD SCORES, THE 514 00:31:14,772 --> 00:31:17,275 HOUSES DIRECTLY BENEATH THE DAM 515 00:31:17,342 --> 00:31:19,577 HAVE A HIGH FLOOD RISK. 516 00:31:19,644 --> 00:31:21,813 THEY'RE LIKE BASICALLY SAYING 517 00:31:21,879 --> 00:31:25,750 OH, THIS IS A SMALL URBAN DAM 518 00:31:25,817 --> 00:31:29,487 AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE UNITED 519 00:31:29,554 --> 00:31:31,089 STATES THOSE DAMS ARE MANAGED 520 00:31:31,155 --> 00:31:36,327 AND AT RISK FOR CATASTROPHIC 521 00:31:36,394 --> 00:31:37,328 FAILURE AND THAT WOULD FLOOD THE 522 00:31:37,395 --> 00:31:39,130 AREAS DIRECTLY BELOW IT. 523 00:31:39,197 --> 00:31:41,766 SO THOSE HOUSES ON THAT SEGMENT 524 00:31:41,833 --> 00:31:44,669 OF THE STREET BELOW IT ALL HAVE 525 00:31:44,736 --> 00:31:48,172 FLOOD RISK SCORES, 6, 7, 8, 9. 526 00:31:48,239 --> 00:31:50,441 AND MY HOUSE THAT SITS IN 527 00:31:50,508 --> 00:31:51,376 ANOTHER SECTION OF THE 528 00:31:51,442 --> 00:31:52,310 NEIGHBORHOOD RELATIVELY THE TOP 529 00:31:52,377 --> 00:31:56,514 OF A HILL IS 1. 530 00:31:56,581 --> 00:32:01,753 SO, IT WAS AN ANECDOTAL CHECK OF 531 00:32:01,819 --> 00:32:03,187 THEIR HYPERLOCAL CLASSIFICATION 532 00:32:03,254 --> 00:32:11,529 OF FLOOD RISK BY PARCEL. 533 00:32:11,596 --> 00:32:13,998 THIS IS AN AERIAL ANALYSIS AND 534 00:32:14,065 --> 00:32:18,569 HE TOOK THINGS TO THE CENSUS 535 00:32:18,636 --> 00:32:20,305 TRACK LEVEL AND LOOKED AT 536 00:32:20,371 --> 00:32:22,307 VARIOUS MEASURES ACROSS THE 537 00:32:22,373 --> 00:32:23,574 CENSUS TRACKS. 538 00:32:23,641 --> 00:32:27,245 SO WE HAVE MANY MANY MEASURES OF 539 00:32:27,312 --> 00:32:29,781 FLOOD RISK THERE. 540 00:32:29,847 --> 00:32:31,649 AND SO WE HAVE FLOOD FACTOR 541 00:32:31,716 --> 00:32:35,153 SCORES AGAIN THAT'S THE 1-10 AND 542 00:32:35,219 --> 00:32:37,755 THEN THERE'S ALSO THESE OTHER 543 00:32:37,822 --> 00:32:40,425 QUANTITATIVE MEASURES WHICH ARE 544 00:32:40,491 --> 00:32:42,427 THE PERCENTAGE OF PROPERTIES 545 00:32:42,493 --> 00:32:46,698 WITH GREATER THAN A 2% CHANCE OF 546 00:32:46,764 --> 00:32:49,267 FLOODING AT VARIOUS TIME FRAMES 547 00:32:49,334 --> 00:32:53,738 SO CURRENT VERSUS LIKE 20 OR 50 548 00:32:53,805 --> 00:32:56,441 ASSUMED FUTURE RISK. 549 00:32:56,507 --> 00:32:59,477 WE'RE TAKE BAYESIAN APPROACH. 550 00:32:59,544 --> 00:33:03,047 WE DID EXPLORE KEEPING THESE IN 551 00:33:03,114 --> 00:33:04,849 THE NATIVE FORMAT BUT IT WAS A 552 00:33:04,916 --> 00:33:09,454 LITTLE INTRACTABLE FOR THE 553 00:33:09,520 --> 00:33:13,758 BAYESIAN PURPOSE AND WE 554 00:33:13,825 --> 00:33:14,425 CALCULATED PRINCIPLE COMPONENTS 555 00:33:14,492 --> 00:33:17,495 OF ALL THESE AND YOU CAN SEE THE 556 00:33:17,562 --> 00:33:19,130 LOADINGS ON THE RIGHT AND WE 557 00:33:19,197 --> 00:33:21,799 DEVELOPED BASED ON THE LOADINGS 558 00:33:21,866 --> 00:33:23,534 WE MADE AN ASSESSMENT OF WHAT 559 00:33:23,601 --> 00:33:24,669 THEY OVER ALL REPRESENT. 560 00:33:24,736 --> 00:33:28,806 THE PC1 IS A CONSISTENT FLOOD 561 00:33:28,873 --> 00:33:29,774 RISK. 562 00:33:29,841 --> 00:33:31,743 YOU CAN SEE IT'S SMALL BUT 563 00:33:31,809 --> 00:33:35,713 POSITIVE CONTRIBUTIONS OF THESE 564 00:33:35,780 --> 00:33:38,316 FLOODING PROBABILITIES HERE 565 00:33:38,383 --> 00:33:41,219 WHEREAS SOMETHING LIKE SEVERE 566 00:33:41,285 --> 00:33:47,492 FLOOD RISK, PC3 WAS A 20% CHANCE 567 00:33:47,558 --> 00:33:51,162 OR FLOOD FACTOR SCORE OF 10 568 00:33:51,229 --> 00:33:51,729 WHICH IS THE HIGHEST FACTOR 569 00:33:51,796 --> 00:33:57,502 SCORE THERE. 570 00:33:57,568 --> 00:34:02,940 SO OUR DISEASE PREVALENCE DATA 571 00:34:03,007 --> 00:34:10,381 COMES FROM THE DISEASE 572 00:34:10,448 --> 00:34:13,751 PREVAL -- CDC 573 00:34:13,818 --> 00:34:16,921 BEHAVIORAL RISK FACTOR 574 00:34:16,988 --> 00:34:19,090 SURVEILLANCE SYSTEM AND LOOKS AT 575 00:34:19,157 --> 00:34:20,958 HIGH BLOOD PRESSURE, ASTHMA AND 576 00:34:21,025 --> 00:34:21,626 POOR MENTAL HEALTH. 577 00:34:21,692 --> 00:34:24,061 HERE'S THE BASICS. 578 00:34:24,128 --> 00:34:27,565 IT'S A CONDITIONAL AUTO 579 00:34:27,632 --> 00:34:31,769 REGRESSIVE MODEL BAYESIAN 580 00:34:31,836 --> 00:34:34,639 FRAMEWORK AND SAID IT'S 581 00:34:34,705 --> 00:34:36,107 DISTRIBUTED WITH SPATIAL AND 582 00:34:36,174 --> 00:34:41,512 RANDOM EFFECTS AND IID ERROR. 583 00:34:41,579 --> 00:34:48,286 SO THE I-CAR MODEL ACCOUNTS FOR 584 00:34:48,352 --> 00:34:49,620 SMOOTHS THINGS OUT A LITTLE BIT 585 00:34:49,687 --> 00:34:51,222 AND SAYS THERE'S SOME ERROR 586 00:34:51,289 --> 00:34:52,990 BASED ON A LOCAL NEIGHBORHOOD. 587 00:34:53,057 --> 00:34:58,162 YOU IMAGINE IT'S WEIGHTING 588 00:34:58,229 --> 00:35:01,766 THINGS BY IF WE'RE LOOKING HERE 589 00:35:01,833 --> 00:35:02,433 IT'S EVERYTHING OUTSIDE THE DARK 590 00:35:02,500 --> 00:35:07,071 GREEN NEIGHBORHOOD. 591 00:35:07,138 --> 00:35:09,006 SO WHAT DOES IT DO? 592 00:35:09,073 --> 00:35:09,774 WHY WOULD WE GO THROUGH THE 593 00:35:09,841 --> 00:35:14,979 EFFORT? 594 00:35:15,046 --> 00:35:15,546 IT REDUCES BIAS AND FIXED 595 00:35:15,613 --> 00:35:16,380 AFFECTS AND PRECISION IN THE 596 00:35:16,447 --> 00:35:17,415 FORM OF BETTER STANDARD ERROR. 597 00:35:17,482 --> 00:35:21,219 WHAT IT DOES NOT DO, STANDARD 598 00:35:21,285 --> 00:35:21,986 MISCONCEPTION IS MEASURE FOR 599 00:35:22,053 --> 00:35:27,592 CONFOUNDING. 600 00:35:27,658 --> 00:35:29,760 SO WE THEN STRATIFIED BY THE 601 00:35:29,827 --> 00:35:31,429 SOCIAL VULNERABILITY INDEX. 602 00:35:31,496 --> 00:35:33,364 I THINK MOST PEOPLE IN THE 603 00:35:33,431 --> 00:35:35,433 AUDIENCE ARE FAMILIAR WITH THE 604 00:35:35,500 --> 00:35:35,666 SVI. 605 00:35:35,733 --> 00:35:38,769 IT HAS FOUR DIFFERENT THEMES AND 606 00:35:38,836 --> 00:35:40,404 THEN THERE'S THREE TO FIVE 607 00:35:40,471 --> 00:35:43,608 CATEGORIES IN EACH THEME. 608 00:35:43,674 --> 00:35:45,276 SO WE STICK WITH THE THEME 609 00:35:45,343 --> 00:35:45,476 LEVEL. 610 00:35:45,543 --> 00:35:48,579 WE CERTIFY ABOVE AND BELOW THE 611 00:35:48,646 --> 00:35:51,282 MEDIAN AND WE ALSO HAVE A 612 00:35:51,349 --> 00:35:52,183 POVERTY ESTIMATE. 613 00:35:52,250 --> 00:35:56,554 AND THEN SO THEN WE DO TOTAL 614 00:35:56,621 --> 00:35:57,388 SVI. 615 00:35:57,455 --> 00:35:59,323 BETWEEN THE SIX WITH THE FOUR 616 00:35:59,390 --> 00:36:01,759 OUTCOMES WE HAVE 24 MODELS WE'RE 617 00:36:01,826 --> 00:36:05,062 LOOKING AT. 618 00:36:05,129 --> 00:36:06,197 SO HERE'S THE RESULTS. 619 00:36:06,264 --> 00:36:10,067 FIRST I'M SHOWING YOU ALL THE 620 00:36:10,134 --> 00:36:11,569 FACTORS TOGETHER INCLUDING 621 00:36:11,636 --> 00:36:13,638 SOCIAL VULNERABILITY, WE ALSO 622 00:36:13,704 --> 00:36:15,239 HAVE AIR POLLUTION AND OTHER 623 00:36:15,306 --> 00:36:16,440 THINGS LIKE TEMPERATURE, 624 00:36:16,507 --> 00:36:19,410 HUMIDITY AND SMOKING. 625 00:36:19,477 --> 00:36:22,613 SO THIS IS CORONARY HEART 626 00:36:22,680 --> 00:36:33,224 DISEASE, STRATIFIED POVERTY AND 627 00:36:34,926 --> 00:36:37,695 SV IS A RISK FACTOR AND MAKES 628 00:36:37,762 --> 00:36:39,263 THE FLOOD VARIABLES UNREADABLE 629 00:36:39,330 --> 00:36:41,532 HERE BUT I WANTED TO SHOW YOU 630 00:36:41,599 --> 00:36:46,804 THINGS LIKE SOCIAL VULNERABILITY 631 00:36:46,871 --> 00:36:49,640 LIKE BEING OLD AGE. 632 00:36:49,707 --> 00:36:53,377 OF COURSE IT'S A WELL KNOWN AND 633 00:36:53,444 --> 00:36:54,011 MASSIVE RISK FACTOR FOR FLOOD 634 00:36:54,078 --> 00:36:54,345 RISK. 635 00:36:54,412 --> 00:36:59,917 IT'S A VULNERABLE POPULATION FOR 636 00:36:59,984 --> 00:37:00,451 NATURAL DISASTER EVENTS. 637 00:37:00,518 --> 00:37:01,085 IN A WAY IT'S A GOOD GUT CHECK 638 00:37:01,152 --> 00:37:03,721 SAYING OKAY, THESE ARE THINGS WE 639 00:37:03,788 --> 00:37:07,825 EXPECT TO HAVE A MASSIVE RISK. 640 00:37:07,892 --> 00:37:10,595 BUT WHEN WE WANT TO LOOK AT 641 00:37:10,661 --> 00:37:11,696 FLOOD RISK WE NEED TO JUST -- 642 00:37:11,762 --> 00:37:13,564 THESE ARE STILL IN THE MODEL OF 643 00:37:13,631 --> 00:37:15,032 COURSE BUT WE'RE JUST 644 00:37:15,099 --> 00:37:17,735 FOCUSSING -- WE REMOVED THAT 645 00:37:17,802 --> 00:37:19,303 FROM THE PLOTS SO WE CAN LOOK AT 646 00:37:19,370 --> 00:37:20,571 THE FLOOD RISK VARIABLES. 647 00:37:20,638 --> 00:37:29,380 THESE ARE A FEW EXAMPLES OF THE 648 00:37:29,447 --> 00:37:30,681 CORONARY HEART DISEASE 649 00:37:30,748 --> 00:37:33,784 STRATIFIED ACROSS ALL STRATA. 650 00:37:33,851 --> 00:37:39,023 THESE ARE PCs AND IT'S A LOT TO 651 00:37:39,090 --> 00:37:40,291 LOOK AT AND LOW SOCIAL 652 00:37:40,358 --> 00:37:43,694 VULNERABILITY AND HIGH SOCIAL 653 00:37:43,761 --> 00:37:44,028 VULNERABILITY. 654 00:37:44,095 --> 00:37:46,530 IT'S A HIGH SVI SCORE. 655 00:37:46,597 --> 00:37:48,566 PEOPLE PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE. 656 00:37:48,633 --> 00:37:53,771 AND IN GENERAL WHAT WE SEE FOR 657 00:37:53,838 --> 00:37:55,706 THINGS LIKE CORONARY HEART 658 00:37:55,773 --> 00:37:59,744 DISEASE CONSISTENT FLOOD RISK IS 659 00:37:59,810 --> 00:38:01,479 HIGHER AND THE HIGH POVERTY. 660 00:38:01,545 --> 00:38:09,253 THIS IS THIS PC1 IS CONSISTENTLY 661 00:38:09,320 --> 00:38:13,290 HIGHER AND THEY BOTH HAVE HIGH 662 00:38:13,357 --> 00:38:13,991 RISK THERE. 663 00:38:14,058 --> 00:38:16,093 INTERESTINGLY THE ALL OF THIS 664 00:38:16,160 --> 00:38:19,830 THEME THE RESULTS THE RESULTS 665 00:38:19,897 --> 00:38:28,172 ARE LESS CONCLUSIVE AND THERE'S 666 00:38:28,239 --> 00:38:30,941 TOO MUCH WRAPPED UP FOR IT BE AN 667 00:38:31,008 --> 00:38:32,576 EFFECTIVE MODIFIER WE SAW THAT 668 00:38:32,643 --> 00:38:36,647 ACROSS ALL THE PCs AND DISEASES 669 00:38:36,714 --> 00:38:38,549 THAT ALL THEMES STRATA WERE JUST 670 00:38:38,616 --> 00:38:43,521 TOO ALL OVER THE PLACE TO 671 00:38:43,587 --> 00:38:43,788 INTERPRET. 672 00:38:43,854 --> 00:38:47,591 THE THEME LEVEL PROVIDES A 673 00:38:47,658 --> 00:38:56,267 LITTLE MORE INTER VA-VARIABILIT 674 00:38:56,333 --> 00:38:58,402 AND MORE CONSISTENT RESULTS AND 675 00:38:58,469 --> 00:39:03,174 WE SAW ASTHMA RESULT WHERE'S WE 676 00:39:03,240 --> 00:39:06,277 SEE CONSISTENT AVERAGE FLOOD 677 00:39:06,343 --> 00:39:07,778 RISK IS HIGHER SO NATURAL 678 00:39:07,845 --> 00:39:08,312 EXPECTATION THERE'S WITH 679 00:39:08,379 --> 00:39:11,048 VULNERABLE POPULATIONS. 680 00:39:11,115 --> 00:39:13,417 ONE THING WE'RE ABLE TO DO IS 681 00:39:13,484 --> 00:39:15,619 THEN TAKE THESE RESULTS AND MAKE 682 00:39:15,686 --> 00:39:17,655 PREDICTIONS AND SO THESE 683 00:39:17,722 --> 00:39:21,225 ESSENTIALLY ARE SMOOTH 684 00:39:21,292 --> 00:39:23,928 PREDICTIONS OF CORONARY HEART 685 00:39:23,994 --> 00:39:29,033 DISEASE AFTER THE MODEL. 686 00:39:29,100 --> 00:39:34,739 YOU CAN SEE THE CORONARY HEART 687 00:39:34,805 --> 00:39:35,706 DISEASE GIVEN THE FLOOD RISK 688 00:39:35,773 --> 00:39:39,009 VARIABLES AND OTHER THINGS LIKE 689 00:39:39,076 --> 00:39:39,410 THAT. 690 00:39:39,477 --> 00:39:45,716 YOU CAN SEE THE HIGH HEART 691 00:39:45,783 --> 00:39:47,118 DISEASE IN THESE COASTAL 692 00:39:47,184 --> 00:39:48,152 POPULATIONS AND I WANTED TO SHOW 693 00:39:48,219 --> 00:39:52,056 YOU THIS IS A MODELLING CHECK 694 00:39:52,123 --> 00:39:53,791 THE SPATIAL RANDOM EFFECT PIECE 695 00:39:53,858 --> 00:39:55,159 AND YOU CAN SEE WHY IT'S 696 00:39:55,226 --> 00:39:57,795 IMPORTANT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS 697 00:39:57,862 --> 00:39:58,929 BECAUSE THERE ARE CLEAR SPATIAL 698 00:39:58,996 --> 00:39:59,697 PATTERNS IN THIS HERE. 699 00:39:59,764 --> 00:40:03,701 IF THIS WAS NOT INCLUDED, THIS 700 00:40:03,768 --> 00:40:06,871 VARIABILITY WOULD GET WRAPPED UP 701 00:40:06,937 --> 00:40:08,773 INTO THE STANDARD ERRORS OF YOUR 702 00:40:08,839 --> 00:40:14,612 FIXED EFFECTS AND MAKE THEM LESS 703 00:40:14,678 --> 00:40:15,212 RELIABLE. 704 00:40:15,279 --> 00:40:17,414 SO DISCUSSION POINTS HERE. 705 00:40:17,481 --> 00:40:21,252 FLOOD RISK IS ASSOCIATED WITH 706 00:40:21,318 --> 00:40:24,922 LOW MAGNITUDE AFTER CONTROLLING 707 00:40:24,989 --> 00:40:26,924 FOR THE CONFOUNDING AND SPATIAL 708 00:40:26,991 --> 00:40:27,324 RANDOM EFFECT. 709 00:40:27,391 --> 00:40:30,928 NOT AS BIG AS THE MAJOR SOCIAL 710 00:40:30,995 --> 00:40:33,397 STRUCTURES AND SOCIAL 711 00:40:33,464 --> 00:40:34,965 VULNERABILITY FACTORS BUT LOW 712 00:40:35,032 --> 00:40:37,067 MAGNITUDE CONSISTENT WE MIGHT 713 00:40:37,134 --> 00:40:37,935 EXPECT WITH FEATURE AND CHRONIC 714 00:40:38,002 --> 00:40:40,371 RISK. 715 00:40:40,437 --> 00:40:43,774 AND WE DID PROVIDE THESE 716 00:40:43,841 --> 00:40:44,475 CONTINUOUS ESTIMATES SHOWING 717 00:40:44,542 --> 00:40:46,977 EVIDENCE OF SOCIAL VULNERABILITY 718 00:40:47,044 --> 00:40:53,784 AND SIGNIFICANT EFFECT MODIFIER 719 00:40:53,851 --> 00:40:54,351 THE FLOOD RISK. 720 00:40:54,418 --> 00:40:55,386 OKAY. 721 00:40:55,452 --> 00:41:01,458 SO NOW IS THE SPATIAL EPIMEAT OF 722 00:41:01,525 --> 00:41:03,194 THE SANDWICH AND KNOW I WANT TO 723 00:41:03,260 --> 00:41:06,030 COME BACK TO THE MECHANISTIC 724 00:41:06,096 --> 00:41:07,765 THINKING EARLY EXTENDING THE 725 00:41:07,832 --> 00:41:10,134 STUDY ON FLOOD RISK AND HEALTH 726 00:41:10,201 --> 00:41:11,402 EFFECTS AND JUST DISCUSS 727 00:41:11,468 --> 00:41:14,772 HIGH-LEVEL IDEAS OF HOW WE MIGHT 728 00:41:14,839 --> 00:41:17,975 START INTEGRATING MECHANISMS 729 00:41:18,042 --> 00:41:19,443 INTO CLIMATE CHANGE, HEALTH 730 00:41:19,510 --> 00:41:19,677 IMPACTS. 731 00:41:19,743 --> 00:41:24,248 SO LOOKING FORWARD, HOW MIGHT A 732 00:41:24,315 --> 00:41:25,783 MECHANISTIC APPROACH WHETHER IT 733 00:41:25,850 --> 00:41:28,853 BE GEO TOX OR OTHER MECHANISTIC 734 00:41:28,919 --> 00:41:30,521 FRAMEWORKS OUT THERE TO INFORM 735 00:41:30,588 --> 00:41:31,789 AND MITIGATE THE HEALTH IMPACTS 736 00:41:31,856 --> 00:41:36,460 FROM CLIMATE CHANGE. 737 00:41:36,527 --> 00:41:37,828 SO BRINGING BACK THE FIGURE HERE 738 00:41:37,895 --> 00:41:41,065 THE CASCADE OF EVENTS, REALLY 739 00:41:41,131 --> 00:41:47,004 WHAT I WANT TO TARGET IS THIS 740 00:41:47,071 --> 00:41:47,571 PIECE. 741 00:41:47,638 --> 00:41:49,773 WHAT ARE THE MOLECULAR TARGETS 742 00:41:49,840 --> 00:41:55,779 THAT FLOODING OR OTHER CLIMATE 743 00:41:55,846 --> 00:42:00,517 EXPOSURES ARE HIDING. 744 00:42:00,584 --> 00:42:03,554 ONE THING THERE'S THE CLIMATE 745 00:42:03,621 --> 00:42:05,322 AND HEALTH RESEARCH IS REALLY -- 746 00:42:05,389 --> 00:42:09,393 THERE'S A LOT GOING ON RIGHT NOW 747 00:42:09,460 --> 00:42:11,562 AND WHEN YOU LOOK AT IT IT'S 748 00:42:11,629 --> 00:42:13,731 LOOKING AT THE EXPOSURE AND THEN 749 00:42:13,797 --> 00:42:15,966 THE POPULATION OUTCOME AND THERE 750 00:42:16,033 --> 00:42:17,167 MAY BE SOME HEALTH IMPACT 751 00:42:17,234 --> 00:42:20,371 ASSESSMENT AND ONE THING THAT 752 00:42:20,437 --> 00:42:21,338 BOTHERS ME A LITTLE BIT ABOUT IT 753 00:42:21,405 --> 00:42:25,776 IS I FEEL LIKE THE NUMBERS DON'T 754 00:42:25,843 --> 00:42:26,176 QUITE ADD UP. 755 00:42:26,243 --> 00:42:28,579 IF YOU TOOK ALL THESE NATURAL 756 00:42:28,646 --> 00:42:31,348 DISASTERS FROM WILD FIRES AND 757 00:42:31,415 --> 00:42:34,485 FLOODING AND EARTHQUAKES AND 758 00:42:34,551 --> 00:42:36,420 THESE KINDS OF THINGS, THE 759 00:42:36,487 --> 00:42:39,757 NUMBER OF PEOPLE THAT ARE DYING 760 00:42:39,823 --> 00:42:50,334 OR HEALTH EFFECTS ARE KIND OF 761 00:42:53,804 --> 00:42:54,071 SUP 762 00:42:54,138 --> 00:42:55,606 SUPERCEDING THE POPULATION AND 763 00:42:55,673 --> 00:42:57,041 UNMEASURED CONFOUNDING. 764 00:42:57,107 --> 00:43:00,277 MY HOPE IS IF WE'RE MORE 765 00:43:00,344 --> 00:43:02,947 EXPLICIT WHAT IN PARTICULAR 766 00:43:03,013 --> 00:43:04,048 NATURAL DISASTER OR CLIMATE 767 00:43:04,114 --> 00:43:06,116 EFFECT IS IMPACTING AT THE 768 00:43:06,183 --> 00:43:09,253 BIOLOGICAL LEVEL WE CAN BE MORE 769 00:43:09,320 --> 00:43:13,791 SELF-CONSISTENT WHEN WE'RE 770 00:43:13,857 --> 00:43:16,727 TALKING ABOUT THEIR RISKS. 771 00:43:16,794 --> 00:43:22,132 SO YOU CAN TAKE A HIERARCHICAL 772 00:43:22,199 --> 00:43:23,167 APPROACH WITH MECHANISMS. 773 00:43:23,233 --> 00:43:26,637 YOU CAN GO TO THE CELLULAR LEVEL 774 00:43:26,704 --> 00:43:29,273 AND ALSO THINK ABOUT MODE OF 775 00:43:29,340 --> 00:43:32,609 ACTION OR TIME TO OR AFTER EVENT 776 00:43:32,676 --> 00:43:34,478 AS WELL. 777 00:43:34,545 --> 00:43:37,081 THIS WAS A PAPER IN CLINICAL 778 00:43:37,147 --> 00:43:38,349 INFECTIOUS DISEASES LOOKING AT 779 00:43:38,415 --> 00:43:41,785 HEALTH RISK OF FLOODING 780 00:43:41,852 --> 00:43:42,453 CERTIFIED BY TIME. 781 00:43:42,519 --> 00:43:44,254 SO AS I MENTIONED BEFORE WHEN 782 00:43:44,321 --> 00:43:46,757 YOU THINK ABOUT FLOOD YOU THINK 783 00:43:46,824 --> 00:43:49,793 TYPICALLY ABOUT IMMEDIATE AND 784 00:43:49,860 --> 00:43:54,732 ACUTE EVENTS. 785 00:43:54,798 --> 00:43:59,770 THINGS THAT ARE PERSONAL INJURY 786 00:43:59,837 --> 00:44:03,640 AND DROWNING ELECTROCUTION AND 787 00:44:03,707 --> 00:44:05,376 CARBON MONOXIDE POISONING ARE A 788 00:44:05,442 --> 00:44:06,276 MAJOR RISK FROM DESTROYING 789 00:44:06,343 --> 00:44:07,711 INFRASTRUCTURE AND THINGS LIKE 790 00:44:07,778 --> 00:44:09,747 THAT. 791 00:44:09,813 --> 00:44:14,418 THEN YOU HAVE VERY EARLY THINGS 792 00:44:14,485 --> 00:44:17,788 AS WELL IF YOU THINK ABOUT G.I. 793 00:44:17,855 --> 00:44:19,223 ISSUES AND OTHER VIRUSES AND 794 00:44:19,289 --> 00:44:23,527 OTHER INFECTIOUS DISEASES THAT 795 00:44:23,594 --> 00:44:26,930 DROP OFF AFTER MAJOR FLOODING. 796 00:44:26,997 --> 00:44:31,435 BUT I WANT TO FOCUS ON THE 797 00:44:31,502 --> 00:44:33,404 LONG-TERM IMPLICATIONS OF FLOOD 798 00:44:33,470 --> 00:44:33,604 RISK. 799 00:44:33,670 --> 00:44:38,942 THEY CLEARLY HAVE A VERY 800 00:44:39,009 --> 00:44:46,517 INFECTIOUS DISEASE BIAS HERE AND 801 00:44:46,583 --> 00:44:48,419 THERE'S MANAGEMENT OF CHRONIC 802 00:44:48,485 --> 00:44:49,787 DISEASE AND MENTAL HEALTH 803 00:44:49,853 --> 00:44:51,188 DISORDERS THAT MAY BE IMPORTANT. 804 00:44:51,255 --> 00:44:53,490 I WANT TO PAUSE OR HIGHLIGHT 805 00:44:53,557 --> 00:44:54,558 THREE POTENTIAL EXAMPLES AND I'M 806 00:44:54,625 --> 00:45:00,297 JUST GOING TO GET ONE LEVEL OF 807 00:45:00,364 --> 00:45:04,268 DETAIL FURTHER IN THESE. 808 00:45:04,334 --> 00:45:07,504 SO THE FIRST BEING FLOODS 809 00:45:07,571 --> 00:45:09,773 LEADING TO A DECREASED 810 00:45:09,840 --> 00:45:12,409 COMPLIANCE AND ESSENTIAL 811 00:45:12,476 --> 00:45:12,709 MEDICATION. 812 00:45:12,776 --> 00:45:15,212 SO WHEN PEOPLE LOSE ACCESS TO 813 00:45:15,279 --> 00:45:19,116 HEALTH CARE THEY MIGHT STOP 814 00:45:19,183 --> 00:45:22,820 TAKING MEDICATION AND THAT'S FOR 815 00:45:22,886 --> 00:45:28,292 MANY POPULATIONS THE OLDER 816 00:45:28,358 --> 00:45:38,902 POPULATION OR PEOPLE PEOPLE WITH 817 00:45:41,905 --> 00:45:43,340 CHRONIC DISEASE COULD BE AN 818 00:45:43,407 --> 00:45:45,409 ISSUE AND FLOOD CAN RELEASE 819 00:45:45,476 --> 00:45:46,577 ADDITIONAL TOXIC CHEMICALS INTO 820 00:45:46,643 --> 00:45:48,645 THE AIR OR WATER. 821 00:45:48,712 --> 00:45:51,782 THERE WAS A RECENT PUBLICATION 822 00:45:51,849 --> 00:45:56,987 OUT SHOWING THINGS LIKE 823 00:45:57,054 --> 00:46:05,762 HURRICANE HARVEY IS IN TEXAS AND 824 00:46:05,829 --> 00:46:07,831 LOUISIANA CAUSED THE WATER AND 825 00:46:07,898 --> 00:46:13,770 GAS FACILITIES TO GOOD INTO 826 00:46:13,837 --> 00:46:19,676 EMERGENCY MODES OR THERE WAS 827 00:46:19,743 --> 00:46:25,482 DAMAGE AND ADDITIONAL VOCs AND 828 00:46:25,549 --> 00:46:30,087 OTHER POLLUTAPOLLUTANTS. 829 00:46:30,154 --> 00:46:32,523 FLOODING HAS BEEN SHOWN TO 830 00:46:32,589 --> 00:46:41,532 INCREASE MICRO BACTEBACTERIA LI 831 00:46:41,598 --> 00:46:45,769 NON-TUBERCULOSIS BACTERIA AND A 832 00:46:45,836 --> 00:46:49,139 WAY FLOODS CAN READ TO 833 00:46:49,206 --> 00:46:50,073 MEDICATION DISRUPTION AND 834 00:46:50,140 --> 00:46:54,745 THERE'S MEDICATION 835 00:46:54,811 --> 00:47:04,488 NON-COMPLIANCE THE DRUGS ARE 836 00:47:04,555 --> 00:47:06,557 MADE TO INTERACTION WITH A 837 00:47:06,623 --> 00:47:07,457 TARGET AND THROUGH SOME 838 00:47:07,524 --> 00:47:09,026 PERTURBATION IF YOU TAKE AWAY 839 00:47:09,092 --> 00:47:19,603 THE DRUG YOU HAVE A DECREASE. 840 00:47:24,141 --> 00:47:25,776 YOU GET ADVERSE OUTCOMES. 841 00:47:25,842 --> 00:47:29,279 I WAS TRYING TO FIND A SPECIFIC 842 00:47:29,346 --> 00:47:30,747 EXAMPLE OF THIS BUT I NEED TO DO 843 00:47:30,814 --> 00:47:35,886 MORE MINING OF THE DATABASES TO 844 00:47:35,953 --> 00:47:39,089 SEE ONCE WE GET TO SOME 845 00:47:39,156 --> 00:47:41,024 PERTURBATION OF A DRUG TARGET 846 00:47:41,091 --> 00:47:45,762 AND THINK OF SOMETHING LIKE 847 00:47:45,829 --> 00:47:49,166 MANAGING CHRONIC DIABETES OR 848 00:47:49,233 --> 00:47:49,800 VARIOUS CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASE 849 00:47:49,866 --> 00:47:50,400 WOULD BE INTERESTING ONES TO 850 00:47:50,467 --> 00:48:00,711 LOOK AT HERE. 851 00:48:07,584 --> 00:48:11,188 AND FLOODS LEAD TO RELEASE OF 852 00:48:11,255 --> 00:48:12,556 TOXIC VOCs IN AIR AND WATER. 853 00:48:12,623 --> 00:48:14,958 THIS WOULD BE AN ADDITION ON TO 854 00:48:15,025 --> 00:48:17,361 WHAT THE FIRST PART OF MY 855 00:48:17,427 --> 00:48:17,995 PRESENTATION DOES. 856 00:48:18,061 --> 00:48:24,234 WE MAPPED VOCs ACROSS THE UNITED 857 00:48:24,301 --> 00:48:32,409 STATES AND LOOKED AT THE CYP101 858 00:48:32,476 --> 00:48:34,077 PATHWAY AND YOU CAN COMBINE 859 00:48:34,144 --> 00:48:37,748 THESE INTO A MULTIPLE AOP. 860 00:48:37,814 --> 00:48:48,358 THERE'S CYP101 AND 1A 2 AND LEAD 861 00:48:50,627 --> 00:48:55,899 TO INCREASED PERTURBATION OF THE 862 00:48:55,966 --> 00:49:01,071 RELATED AOPs. 863 00:49:01,138 --> 00:49:03,607 AND THEN INFECTIOUS DISEASE 864 00:49:03,674 --> 00:49:14,151 LEADING TO NON-TUBERCULOSIS 865 00:49:14,885 --> 00:49:16,053 MICROBACTERIA AND THERE'S 866 00:49:16,119 --> 00:49:17,788 EVIDENCE AFTER MAJOR FLOOD 867 00:49:17,854 --> 00:49:21,358 EVENTS MTM INCREASES AND THE 868 00:49:21,425 --> 00:49:23,360 FLOODING STANDING WATER MAKES IT 869 00:49:23,427 --> 00:49:25,762 MORE AEROSOLIZABLE AND EASIER TO 870 00:49:25,829 --> 00:49:35,972 INHALE. 871 00:49:40,410 --> 00:49:43,280 AND A PAPER TALKED ABOUT THE 872 00:49:43,347 --> 00:49:44,748 SUSCEPTIBILITY FOLLOWING A 873 00:49:44,815 --> 00:49:46,450 NATURAL DISASTER INDIVIDUALS ARE 874 00:49:46,516 --> 00:49:50,654 AT HEIGHTENED STRESS WITH 875 00:49:50,721 --> 00:49:52,155 INCREASE EXPOSURE POTENTIAL 876 00:49:52,222 --> 00:49:55,425 REALLY AND WHAT THAT WOULD 877 00:49:55,492 --> 00:49:59,162 EFFECT IS THE PORTION OF THE GEO 878 00:49:59,229 --> 00:50:00,964 TOX FRAMEWORK. 879 00:50:01,031 --> 00:50:04,501 IT MIGHT BASICALLY DECREASE THE 880 00:50:04,568 --> 00:50:10,073 EFFECTIVENESS OF YOUR BODY FOR 881 00:50:10,140 --> 00:50:20,617 FILTERING OUT THE CHEMICAL. 882 00:50:24,087 --> 00:50:29,359 THE HIGH THROUGHPUT IN VIVO 883 00:50:29,426 --> 00:50:31,795 ASSAYS THERE ARE NOT ANY 884 00:50:31,862 --> 00:50:33,597 CURRENTLY FOR BIOLOGICAL FACTORS 885 00:50:33,663 --> 00:50:38,835 THEY'RE ALL CHEMICAL BASED. 886 00:50:38,902 --> 00:50:41,705 THERE'S MICROBIAL BASED STUDIES. 887 00:50:41,772 --> 00:50:44,007 I'M CURRENTLY EXPLORING AND 888 00:50:44,074 --> 00:50:52,315 TALKING WITH FOLKS MORE IN THE 889 00:50:52,382 --> 00:50:52,949 MICROBIAL RISK ASSESSMENT SPACE 890 00:50:53,016 --> 00:50:54,651 ABOUT OPTIONS FOR UNDERSTANDING 891 00:50:54,718 --> 00:51:00,757 THINGS LIKE NTM OR OTHER 892 00:51:00,824 --> 00:51:02,058 INFECTIOUS DISEASE PATHWAYS 893 00:51:02,125 --> 00:51:05,395 BETTER. 894 00:51:05,462 --> 00:51:13,537 IF OF THESE STRIKE YOUR 895 00:51:13,603 --> 00:51:16,673 INTEREST, I'M WORK WITH A STAFF 896 00:51:16,740 --> 00:51:18,108 SCIENTIST TO TAKE THIS PIPELINE 897 00:51:18,175 --> 00:51:19,910 AND CREATE AN R PACKAGE OUT OF 898 00:51:19,976 --> 00:51:28,685 IT. 899 00:51:28,752 --> 00:51:30,987 AND WE HAVE ON SCHEDULE FOR THE 900 00:51:31,054 --> 00:51:33,457 MEETING FOR MARCH OF THIS YEAR 901 00:51:33,523 --> 00:51:37,194 AND IT WILL BE AN ACCESSIBLE AND 902 00:51:37,260 --> 00:51:41,665 EXTENSIBLE PACKAGE TO UTILIZE 903 00:51:41,731 --> 00:51:42,332 THE GEO TOX FRAMEWORK AND WE'LL 904 00:51:42,399 --> 00:51:48,038 HAVE MANY VIGNETTES FROM 905 00:51:48,104 --> 00:51:48,605 POPULATION INDIVIDUAL LEVEL 906 00:51:48,672 --> 00:51:54,811 APPLICATIONS FOR THE GEO TOX 907 00:51:54,878 --> 00:51:55,078 FRAMEWORK. 908 00:51:55,145 --> 00:51:55,645 TRYING TO MAKE IT SUCH THAT 909 00:51:55,712 --> 00:51:56,279 PEOPLE BESIDES MYSELF AND MY 910 00:51:56,346 --> 00:51:57,781 PREVIOUS POSTDOC CAN RUN THIS 911 00:51:57,848 --> 00:52:05,322 GEO TOX FRAMEWORK. 912 00:52:05,388 --> 00:52:09,759 THE TERM GEOPOSSIBILITIES IS 913 00:52:09,826 --> 00:52:12,863 LOOKING AT EXPOSURE ASSESSMENTS 914 00:52:12,929 --> 00:52:14,965 AND THINGS LIKE BRINGING 915 00:52:15,031 --> 00:52:15,565 ENVIRONMENTAL MEDICINE TO A 916 00:52:15,632 --> 00:52:16,032 LARGER SCALE. 917 00:52:16,099 --> 00:52:19,202 IF YOU HAVE A COHORT WHERE YOU 918 00:52:19,269 --> 00:52:22,372 HAVE INDIVIDUAL BIOLOGICAL DATA 919 00:52:22,439 --> 00:52:23,974 TO INFORM YOU'LL GET BETTER PRE 920 00:52:24,040 --> 00:52:30,313 VISION BY WRINGING THAT ADME 921 00:52:30,380 --> 00:52:30,981 INTO YOUR EXPOSURE INFORMATION 922 00:52:31,047 --> 00:52:33,183 AND WE HAVE THE PIPELINE SET UP 923 00:52:33,250 --> 00:52:34,818 TO DO THAT. 924 00:52:34,885 --> 00:52:37,220 LONG-TERM POSSIBILITIES? 925 00:52:37,287 --> 00:52:41,658 GEOSPATIAL RISK ASSESSMENT WITH 926 00:52:41,725 --> 00:52:41,892 EPIDATA. 927 00:52:41,958 --> 00:52:45,762 HIGH THROUGHPUT METHODS ALLOW 928 00:52:45,829 --> 00:52:47,464 CHARACTERIZATI 929 00:52:47,531 --> 00:52:49,366 CHARACTERIZATION VIA THE 930 00:52:49,432 --> 00:52:51,902 NON-ANIMAL METHODS SURPASS THE 931 00:52:51,968 --> 00:52:52,235 EPIDEMIOLOGY. 932 00:52:52,302 --> 00:52:53,770 IT'S THE NATURE OF THE BEAST 933 00:52:53,837 --> 00:53:03,947 THERE. 934 00:53:10,186 --> 00:53:12,255 AND THERE'S MAJOR ADVANTAGES BUT 935 00:53:12,322 --> 00:53:13,790 IT'S TIME CONSUMING AND MORE 936 00:53:13,857 --> 00:53:19,829 TARGETED. 937 00:53:19,896 --> 00:53:22,899 AND GET AT COMPREHENSIVE 938 00:53:22,966 --> 00:53:27,170 EXPOSOMIC RISK ASSESSMENT. 939 00:53:27,237 --> 00:53:29,739 IN SUMMARY, I'VE DISCUSSED THE 940 00:53:29,806 --> 00:53:31,041 SERIES OF STUDIES AND APPROACHES 941 00:53:31,107 --> 00:53:36,546 THAT WE'RE WORKING ON IN MY 942 00:53:36,613 --> 00:53:41,184 GROUP FOR MECHANISTICALLY 943 00:53:41,251 --> 00:53:41,785 AFORKED RISK ASSESSMENT START 944 00:53:41,851 --> 00:53:43,920 WITH THE CONCEPT AND THE GENOME 945 00:53:43,987 --> 00:53:50,627 AND EXPOSOME AND GEO TOX IS 946 00:53:50,694 --> 00:53:51,628 EQUAL TO THE EXPOSOME AND 947 00:53:51,695 --> 00:53:55,599 PATHWAYS AND LOOK AT THE STUDY 948 00:53:55,665 --> 00:53:57,701 FOR FLOOD RISK AND DISCUSSING 949 00:53:57,767 --> 00:54:03,974 WAYS HOW WE CAN INCORPORATE 950 00:54:04,040 --> 00:54:04,574 MECHAN 951 00:54:04,641 --> 00:54:05,976 MECHANISMS TO GET A MORE 952 00:54:06,042 --> 00:54:07,744 COMPLETE WAY TO LOOK AT CLIMATE 953 00:54:07,811 --> 00:54:07,944 RISK. 954 00:54:08,011 --> 00:54:18,555 WITH THAT I'D LIKE TO THANK YOU 955 00:54:18,888 --> 00:54:19,322 ALL AGAIN FOR ATTENDING AND 956 00:54:19,389 --> 00:54:19,923 WOULD LIKE TO ACKNOWLEDGE MY 957 00:54:19,990 --> 00:54:20,523 GROUP MEMBERS AND SUPERVISORS 958 00:54:20,590 --> 00:54:21,157 AND OTHER PEOPLE WORKING ON THE 959 00:54:21,224 --> 00:54:21,658 PROJECT AND NC STATE 960 00:54:21,725 --> 00:54:32,335 COLLABORATORS THE AUTHORS ON THE 961 00:54:32,402 --> 00:54:32,836 AG ARTICLE AND THANKFUL FOR 962 00:54:32,902 --> 00:54:33,470 FUNDING AND NIEHS AND NIMHD AS 963 00:54:33,536 --> 00:54:34,070 THANKFUL AS AN ADJUNCT THEY 964 00:54:34,137 --> 00:54:38,708 SUPPORT A POSTDOC IN MY GROUP 965 00:54:38,775 --> 00:54:40,243 THE ADDITIONAL FUNDING WE HAD 966 00:54:40,310 --> 00:54:42,679 FOR TWO POSTDOCS COMES THROUGH 967 00:54:42,746 --> 00:54:46,583 THE OFFICE OF SECRETARY FOR THE 968 00:54:46,650 --> 00:54:53,790 PATIENT-CENTERED OUTCOME TRUST 969 00:54:53,857 --> 00:55:04,367 FUND AND INVOLVED WITH GITHUB. 970 00:55:05,902 --> 00:55:07,404 >> THANK YOU, KYLE FOR A VERY 971 00:55:07,470 --> 00:55:08,872 INFORMATIVE AND INTERESTING 972 00:55:08,938 --> 00:55:09,205 PRESENTATION. 973 00:55:09,272 --> 00:55:11,474 SOME OF THE THINGS I'VE NEVER 974 00:55:11,541 --> 00:55:13,777 HEARD OF AND ALWAYS WONDERED 975 00:55:13,843 --> 00:55:15,145 ABOUT SO THIS IS A TREAT. 976 00:55:15,211 --> 00:55:20,750 I WANT TO GO FROM SOME OF THE 977 00:55:20,817 --> 00:55:22,185 MORE SPECIFIC FINDINGS IN THE 978 00:55:22,252 --> 00:55:25,855 STUDIES I'VE DONE AND TO A 979 00:55:25,922 --> 00:55:26,256 LARGER DISCUSSION. 980 00:55:26,322 --> 00:55:26,856 WE HAVE ABOUT FIVE MINUTES TO 981 00:55:26,923 --> 00:55:31,094 GET AT THAT. 982 00:55:31,161 --> 00:55:37,200 >> OKAY. 983 00:55:37,267 --> 00:55:37,434 GOOD. 984 00:55:37,500 --> 00:55:42,238 AND AS SOME OF THE HYPOTHESIS 985 00:55:42,305 --> 00:55:44,974 YOUR DATA SUGGESTS THERE'S A 986 00:55:45,041 --> 00:55:55,585 MODIFICATION IN CARDIOVASCULAR 987 00:55:56,052 --> 00:55:56,853 OUTCOME BY THE NEIGHBORHOOD THE 988 00:55:56,920 --> 00:55:57,220 REVISION INDEX. 989 00:55:57,287 --> 00:56:01,357 WHAT DO YOU THINK IS THE 990 00:56:01,424 --> 00:56:11,701 MECHANISTIC OR 991 00:56:35,024 --> 00:56:40,296 OLD, MINORITY AND THE AMOUNT OF 992 00:56:40,363 --> 00:56:43,933 NON-U.S. CITIZENS OR IMMIGRANTS, 993 00:56:44,000 --> 00:56:47,137 THINGS LIKE THAT. 994 00:56:47,203 --> 00:56:48,805 MECHANISTICALLY IT DEPENDS ON 995 00:56:48,872 --> 00:56:50,507 WHAT LEVEL YOU WANT TO TALK 996 00:56:50,573 --> 00:56:50,707 ABOUT. 997 00:56:50,774 --> 00:56:55,512 YOU CAN TALK ABOUT THE HIGHER 998 00:56:55,578 --> 00:57:06,156 LEVEL OF WHAT I WAS DIFFERENCESN 999 00:57:32,382 --> 00:57:36,019 HOW CERTAIN RACE AND ETHNICITIES 1000 00:57:36,085 --> 00:57:39,189 MIGHT LEAD TO THE ADME PORTION 1001 00:57:39,255 --> 00:57:41,691 OF THINGS AND THAT'S WHERE 1002 00:57:41,758 --> 00:57:42,325 HAVING DATA ON GENE EXPRESSION 1003 00:57:42,392 --> 00:57:48,731 OR OTHER OMICS MIGHT BE ABLE TO 1004 00:57:48,798 --> 00:57:52,235 INFORM MECHANISTIC AND 1005 00:57:52,302 --> 00:57:53,236 SUBPOPULATION THAT'S 1006 00:57:53,303 --> 00:58:03,613 PARTICULARLY WELL 1007 00:58:35,144 --> 00:58:37,080 PERHAPS BEHAVIORAL LEVEL AS 1008 00:58:37,146 --> 00:58:37,714 WELL. 1009 00:58:37,780 --> 00:58:43,319 >> I'M THINKING ALONG THE 1010 00:58:43,386 --> 00:58:52,328 SIMILAR LINE FOR FOLKS AND 1011 00:58:52,395 --> 00:58:53,997 PEOPLE BUYING A HOUSE AND 1012 00:58:54,063 --> 00:58:56,466 GETTING A MORTGAGE AND WE KNOW 1013 00:58:56,532 --> 00:58:59,903 THE HISTORY OF RACIALIZED 1014 00:58:59,969 --> 00:59:05,508 MINORITIES ARE NOT GIVEN THEIR 1015 00:59:05,575 --> 00:59:08,611 FAIR SHARE OF LOANS AND BEING 1016 00:59:08,678 --> 00:59:10,313 FORCED IT AREAS AND STAYING 1017 00:59:10,380 --> 00:59:14,117 THERE AND LONG-TERM EXPOSURE TO 1018 00:59:14,183 --> 00:59:15,218 CONSEQUENCES OF REPEATED 1019 00:59:15,285 --> 00:59:17,787 FLOODING AND THEN YOU MENTIONED 1020 00:59:17,854 --> 00:59:20,023 THE IDEA OF HOW MUCH THEY CAN 1021 00:59:20,089 --> 00:59:24,961 CLEAN UP AFTER EACH FLOOD 1022 00:59:25,028 --> 00:59:29,365 HAPPENS AND THE REMNANTS OF THE 1023 00:59:29,432 --> 00:59:30,466 DAMAGE IN TERM OF MOLD IN THE 1024 00:59:30,533 --> 00:59:36,272 WALL AND THAT KIND OF THING. 1025 00:59:36,339 --> 00:59:41,444 THAT COULD HAVE EXPOSURE 1026 00:59:41,511 --> 00:59:41,945 >> THERE'S DATA ON THE 1027 00:59:42,011 --> 00:59:48,551 HISTORICAL RED LINING AND SO WE 1028 00:59:48,618 --> 00:59:53,790 COULD LOOK AT SOME OF THOSE AS 1029 00:59:53,856 --> 00:59:55,992 EFFECT MODIFIERS AS WELL OR 1030 00:59:56,059 --> 00:59:56,759 EXPLANATORY FACTORS. 1031 00:59:56,826 --> 00:59:59,929 I IMAGINE YOU SEE SIMILAR TO 1032 00:59:59,996 --> 01:00:00,630 WHAT WE'VE SEEN WITH AIR 1033 01:00:00,697 --> 01:00:06,336 POLLUTION AND BASICALLY IT'S A 1034 01:00:06,402 --> 01:00:07,737 STRAIGHT LAYER EFFECT OF THE 1035 01:00:07,804 --> 01:00:12,041 WORSE THE NEIGHBORHOOD WAS RED 1036 01:00:12,108 --> 01:00:13,977 LINED BACK IN THE '30s AND '40s 1037 01:00:14,043 --> 01:00:19,148 AND MAINTAINED STRUCTURALLY IN 1038 01:00:19,215 --> 01:00:19,615 OUR CURRENT SOCIETY. 1039 01:00:19,682 --> 01:00:22,251 THERE'S HIGHER LEVELS OF AIR 1040 01:00:22,318 --> 01:00:30,193 POLLUTION ON AVERAGE. 1041 01:00:30,259 --> 01:00:30,793 WE MIGHT SEE FLOOD RISK WITH 1042 01:00:30,860 --> 01:00:30,994 THAT. 1043 01:00:31,060 --> 01:00:31,627 NOW, FLOODING IS AN INTERESTING 1044 01:00:31,694 --> 01:00:32,195 ONE BECAUSE THERE IS SOME 1045 01:00:32,261 --> 01:00:33,896 U-SHAPE BECAUSE THERE'S VERY 1046 01:00:33,963 --> 01:00:37,767 VULNERABLE POPULATIONS AND THEN 1047 01:00:37,834 --> 01:00:39,235 THERE'S EXTREMELY WEALTHY PEOPLE 1048 01:00:39,302 --> 01:00:47,143 AND HIGH FLOOD RISK INTERACTION 1049 01:00:47,210 --> 01:00:57,653 AT TO SEE HOW THAT MIGHT 1050 01:01:00,857 --> 01:01:05,795 MANIFEST WITH THE FLOOD 1051 01:01:05,862 --> 01:01:08,898 INUNDATION WITH THE WEALTHY 1052 01:01:08,965 --> 01:01:09,532 VERSUS VULNERABLE POPULATIONS SO 1053 01:01:09,599 --> 01:01:12,969 THERE'S OTHER FACTORS LIKE 1054 01:01:13,036 --> 01:01:14,737 ACCESS TO CARE AND RESOURCES AND 1055 01:01:14,804 --> 01:01:17,774 THINGS LIKE THAT THAT MAY BE 1056 01:01:17,840 --> 01:01:24,647 DRIVING THE IMPACT. 1057 01:01:24,714 --> 01:01:27,483 >> IT'S POSSIBLE. 1058 01:01:27,550 --> 01:01:28,084 WE'RE RUNNING OUT OF TIME SO 1059 01:01:28,151 --> 01:01:29,352 I'LL SAVE THE OTHER QUESTIONS I 1060 01:01:29,419 --> 01:01:30,720 HAVE FOR WHEN WE MEET AND 1061 01:01:30,787 --> 01:01:33,222 DISCUSS THEM. 1062 01:01:33,289 --> 01:01:36,059 >> I APOLOGIZE FOR GOING A FEW 1063 01:01:36,125 --> 01:01:38,961 MINUTES LONGER THAN I HAD HOPED. 1064 01:01:39,028 --> 01:01:42,799 BUT LET ME JUST GO BACK TO MY 1065 01:01:42,865 --> 01:01:43,666 E-MAIL. 1066 01:01:43,733 --> 01:01:54,410 OBVIOUSLY, I'M DEVELOPING WILL 1067 01:02:16,032 --> 01:02:16,466 MORE USABLE AND OPEN UP THE 1068 01:02:16,532 --> 01:02:17,133 SPACE FOR COLLABORATIONS IN THIS 1069 01:02:17,200 --> 01:02:19,302 WORK. 1070 01:02:19,368 --> 01:02:22,538 >> WITH THAT, THANK YOU, 1071 01:02:22,605 --> 01:02:31,481 DR. MESSIER FOR YOUR 1072 01:02:31,547 --> 01:02:32,014 PRESENTATIONS AND THE Q&A 1073 01:02:32,081 --> 01:02:32,648 PORTION AND THANK YOU EVERYONE 1074 01:02:32,715 --> 01:02:32,949 FOR ATTEND. 1075 01:02:33,015 --> 01:02:33,549 WE WISH YOU THE BEST FOR THE 1076 01:02:33,616 --> 01:02:34,183 REST OF THE YEAR AND WE'LL SEE 1077 01:02:34,250 --> 01:02:34,617 YOU ALL NEXT MONTH. 1078 01:02:34,684 --> 01:02:34,884 CARE. 1079 01:02:35,118 >> THANK YOU.