PERMIT ME TO EXPLAIN FOR TWO MINUTES WHY WE SHOW A PICTURE OF THE MOST FAMOUS BRIDGE IN THE WORLD ASIDE THE PHOTOGRAPH WAS TAKEN BY MY GRANDFATHER. WHY DO WE SHOW THE BROOKLYN BRIDGE IN DEMYSTIFYING MEDICINE? IT'S BECAUSE ALL OF US ARE LIKE THE TWO CHAPS THAT ARE THERE WHO WERE ON THE CATWALK. THE WHOLE POINT OF IT IS IS THE HUGE ADVANTAGES IN BIOLOGICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES FAST OUTSTRIP WHAT PEOPLE INTERESTED IN CLINICAL MEDICINE AND THE SAME IS TRUE WITH THE STANDPOINT OF UNDERSTANDING DISEASE WHEN VIEWED FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF SCIENCE SO WE'RE ALL BRIDGE BUILDERS IN A WAY. THE COURSE STARTED WITH THE IDEA OF AWASN'TING THE LARGE NUMBER OF Ph.D.s HERE WITH SOME OF THE MAJOR PROBLEMS IN MEDICINE AND THE FORMAT IS EVERY TUESDAY BETWEEN JANUARY AND MAY IN BUILDING 50 IT'S USUALLY A LIVE PATIENT, CLINICAL INVESTIGATOR AND BASIC SCIENTISTS AND A MAJOR DISEASE PROBLEM. BUT IN THE PAST SEVERAL YEARS WE REALIZED THERE'S BIGGER BRIDGES OUT THERE OR ADDITIONAL BRIDGES THAT DESERVE SOME ATTENTION. SO FOR EXAMPLE, WE'VE HAD SESSIONS ON BRIDGING THE INCREDIBLE ADVANTAGES IN IMAGE FROM THE COSMOS TO THE MOLECULE. THIS YEAR, BRIDGING FROM COAST OF CHILE AND THE FF THE RELATIONSHIP OF THOSE ORGANIZATI ORGANIZATION -- ORGANISM TO HUMAN DISEASE. THERE'S MANY AREAS BUT THE MOST CHALLENGING IS THE BRIDGING OF SCIENCE IN A REDISCUSSIONIST SENSE, MEDICINE AND HUMANITIES. SO WE'RE EXTREMELY PLEASED THAT TODAY'S SPEAKER, STEVEN PINKER IS GOING TO ADDRESS THAT IN THE STRUCTURE OF A FASCINATING BOOK WHICH HE HAS WRITTEN WHICH IS IN OUR BOOK STORE. SO I'VE ASKED NORAH BOLKOV THE DIRECTOR OF THE NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF DRUG ADDICTION TO TELL YOU ABOUT STEVEN AND FORMALLY INTRODUCE HIM. >> THANKS FOR BEING SUCH A GREAT BRIDGE FOR ALL OF US TO BRIDGE TO THE DIFFERENT AREAS OF SCIENCE. FIRST OF ALL, GOOD AFTERNOON, EVERYBODY, IT'S A PLEASURE FOR KNOW BE ABLE TO GIVE THE HONOR TO INTRODUCE DR. STEVE ARTHUR PINKER. I'M NOT FRANCIS COLLINS AND I APOLOGIZE. I AM NOT. I CONSIDER MY LIMITATIONS. HE WAS CALLED DOWNTOWN SO I TOOK ADVANTAGE OF THIS GREAT HONOR RECOGNIZING THAT YOU'RE GOING TO BE HERE AND I'VE BEEN ADVERTISING IT FOR AN INCREDIBLE RIDE. AND SOMEONE WHO COMES TO MY PEOPLE AND MY FRIENDS, MY COLLEAGUES AND SAID THESE ARE MY PREJUDICES IN LIFE BUT CONVINCE ME OTHERWISE. AND IF YOU CONVINCE ME, I KILL MY PREJUDICES. SINCE I STARTED READING THE BOOK OF THE "ENLIGHTENMENT" FRIDAY AND MY PREJUDICES HAVE BEEN DESTROYED AND FOR THAT I'M EXTRAORDINARILY GRATEFUL. YOU'LL HEAR THE ABILITY TO USE HISTORY TO LEARN WITH DATA IN TERMS WHATEVER WORKS AND DOES NOT WORK AND ALSO MAKE US AWARE ABOUT HOW OUR PERCEPTIONS CAN BE EASILY DISTORTED BUT AS SCIENTISTS WE SHOULD BE BETTER. DR. PINKER WAS BORN IN MONTREAL AND WENT TO DAWSON COLLEGE WHERE HE RECEIVED HIS BACHELOR'S DEGREE IN 1976 AND DID HIS Ph.D. AS AN EXPERIMENTAL PSYCHOLOGY AT HARVARD UNIVERSITY AFTER STEPHEN GOSLING AND WENT TO MIT FOR A YEAR WHERE HE BECAME AN ASSISTANT PROFESSOR AT HARVARD AND THERE WENT TO STANFORD. RETURNING INTO THE 1982 TO BOSTON AND TAUGHT IN THE DEPARTMENT OF BRAIN AND COGNITIVE SCIENCES IN MIT WHERE HE BECAME THE CO-DIRECTOR AT THE CENTER FOR COGNITIVE SCIENCE AND EVENTUALLY BECAME THE CENTER OF THE COGNITIVE NEUROSCIENCES. SINCE 2003, HE HAS BEEN SERVING AS THE JOHNSTON FAMILY PROFESSOR OF HAD VARD AROUND -- HARVARD AROUND HIS SPECIALIZATION IS LINGUISTICS AND WROTE TWO TECHNICAL BOOKS THAT PROPOSE A GENERAL THEORY OF LANGUAGE ACQUISITION AND APPLIED TO CHILDREN LEARNING AND ALSO AGE AUTHOR OF EIGHT BOOKS FOR GENERAL AUDIENCES. HIS EARLY WORKS ARGUE HUMAN FACULTY FOR LANGUAGE IS AN IN INSTANT AND INNATE BEHAVIOR SHAPED BY NATURAL SELECTION AND EACH DESCRIBING LINGUISTICS AN COGNITIVE SCIENCE FROM KTSDZ OF -- ACCOUNTS OF HIS OWN AND HIS OTHER BOOKS ADDRESS BROAD SOCIETAL THEMES. HIS MOST RECENT ONE, "ENLIGHTENMENT" HE USES SOCIAL SCIENCE DATA FROM VARIOUS SOURCES TO ARGUE FOR A GENERAL IMPROVEMENT IN THE HUMAN CONDITION OVER RECENT HISTORY ON THE BASIS ON THE VALUE OF SCIENCE. HE'S WON MULTIPLE AWARDS INCLUDING AMERICAN PSYCHOLOGICAL INSTITUTION, THE COGNITIVE NEUROSCIENCE SOCIETY AND IS ON THE BOARDS OF JOURNALS AND SEVERAL INSTITUTIONS AND FREQUENTLY CONTRIBUTED TO PUBLIC DEBATES ON SOCIETY AND A MEMBER OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES RECIPIENTS OF DOCTORATES AND IS NAMED ONE OF THE WORLD'S TOP INFLUENTIALS AND ONE OF TIME MAGAZINE'S ONE OF THE MOST INFLUENTIAL PEOPLE IN THE WORLD TODAY. WELCOME TO NIH. >> THANK YOU, IT'S AN HONOR TO SPEAK TO YOU THIS AFTERNOON NOT LEAST BECAUSE MY OWN RESEARCH ON HUMAN LANGUAGE WAS SUPPORT THE NATIONAL INSTITUTES OF HEALTH FOR 25 YEARS SO THANK YOU SO THANK YOU NIH. AT TIMES WE ASK DEEP QUESTIONS, WHY IS THE WORLD FILLED WITH SO MUCH TROUBLE AND HOW DO WE MAKE IT BETTER AND GIVE MEANING AND PURPOSE TO OUR LIVES? AS IMPONDERABLE AS THE QUESTIONS MAY SEEM, MANY PEOPLE HAVE CONFIDENT ANSWERS TO THEM. FOR EXAMPLE, MORALITY IS DICTATED BY HOLY SCRIPTURES OR PROBLEMS OF THE FAULT OF EVIL PEOPLE WHO MUST BE SHAMED, PUNISHED AND DEFEATED OR OUR CLAIM TO RIGHTFUL GREATNESS UNDER THE CONTROL OF A STRONG LEAD HORE EMBODIES IT'S AUTHENTIC VIRTUE OR IN THE PAST WE LIVED IN A STATE OF ORDER AND HARMONY UNTIL ALIEN FORCES BROUGHT ON DECADENCE AND DEGENERATION. WE MUST RESTORE SOCIETY TO ITS GOLDEN AGE. WHAT WITH THE REST OF US? MANY KNOW WHAT THEY DON'T BELIEVE BUT HAVE FAR MORE TROUBLE ARTICULATING WHAT THEY DO BELIEVE. IN ENLIGHTENMENT NOW I SUGGEST THERE'S AN ALTERN AT SYSTEM OF BELIEFS AND VALUES AND WE CAN USE KNOWLEDGE TO ENHANCE HUMAN FLOURISHING. MANY PEOPLE EMBRACE THE IDEALS OF THE ENLIGHTENMENT WITHOUT BEING ABLE TO DESCRIBE THEM AND AS A RESULT THEY FADED INTO THE BACKGROUND AS A BLAND STATUS QUO OR ESTABLISHMENT. THE OTHER IDEOLOGIES HAVE PASSIONATE ADVOCATES AND I SUGGEST ENLIGHTENMENT IDEALS NEED A POSITIVE EXPRESS AND COMMITMENT. THAT'S WHAT A TRY TO DO. THE BASIS IS FOUR THEMES. I SUGGEST REASON, SCIENCE, HUMANISM AND PROGRESS. LET ME SAY A FEW WORDS ABOUT EACH. IT ALL BEGINS WITH REASON. WITH THE UNDERSTANDING THAT TRADITIONAL SOURCES OF BELIEF ARE GENERATORS OF DELUSION, FAITH, REVELATION, TRADITIONAL, AUTHORITY, CHARISMA, MYSTICISM, INTUITION, THE PARSING OF SACRED TEXTS ARE ALWAYS OF BEING WRONG. REASON IN CONTRAST, IS NON NEGOTIABLE. AS SOON AS YOU TRY TO PROVIDE REASONS WHY WE SHOULD TRUST ANYTHING OTHER THAN REASON, AS SOON AS YOU EXPLAIN WHY YOU'RE RIGHT OR WHY OTHER PEOPLE SHOULD BELIEVE YOU, WHY YOU'RE NOT LYING OR FULL OF CRAP YOU LOST THE ARGUMENT BECAUSE YOU HAVE APPEALED TO REASON. AS A CO -- COGNITIVE PSYCHOLOGIST I WOULD BE THE FIRST TO SAY HUMAN BEINGS ARE NOT REASONABLE AND AS A SPECIES WE ARE NOT LIABLE TO GENERALIZE FROM ANECDOTES TO REASON FROM STEREOTYPES. WE ALL SEEK EVIDENCE THAT CONFIRMS OUR BELIEFS AND IGNORE EVIDENCE THAT DISCONFIRMS THEM AND WE'RE ALL OVER CONFIDENT ABOUT OUR KNOWLEDGE, WIGS -- WISDOM AND RECTITUDE BUT PEOPLE ARE CAPABLE OF REASON IF THEY ACCEPT CERTAIN NORMS, FREE SPEECH, OPEN CRITICISM AND DEBATE, LOGICAL ANALYSIS, FACT CHECKING AND EMPIRICAL TESTING WHICH BRINGS ME OBVIOUSLY TO THE SECOND ENLIGHTENMENT VALUE, SCIENCE. IT'S BASED ON THE CONVICTION THE WORLD IS INTELLIGIBLE. WE CAN SEEK TO UNDERSTAND IT BY FORMULATING POSSIBLE EXPLANATIONS AN TESTING THEM AGAINST REALITY. SCIENCE HAS SHOWN ITSELF TO BE OUR MOST RELIABLE MEANS OF UNDERSTANDING THE WORLD INCLUDING OURSELVES AN IMPORTANT ENLIGHTENMENT IDEA WAS THERE COULD BE A SCIENCE OF HUMAN NATURE AND THAT BELIEFS ABOUT SOCIETY ARE TESTABLE JUST LIKE ANY OTHER BELIEFS ABOUT THE WORLD. SCIENCE MOREOVER PROVIDES NOT JUST TECHNICAL KNOW-HOW BUT FUNDAMENTAL INSIGHTS ABOUT THE HUMAN CONDITION SUCH AS NATURALISM. THE UNIVERSE HAS NO GOAL OR PURPOSE RELATED TO HUMAN WELFARE WITH THE IMPLICATIONS IF WE WANT TO IMPROVE THAT WELFARE, WE HAVE TO FIGURE OUT HOW TO DO IT OURSELVES. ENTROPY. IN A CLOSED SYSTEM WITHOUT INPUT OF ENERGY DISORDER INCREASES. THINGS FALL APART, THINGS HAPPEN. NOT BECAUSE THE UNIVERSE HAS IT IN FOR US BUT THERE'S VASTLY MORE WAYS FOR THINGS TO GO WRONG THAN TO GO RIGHT. EVOLUTION. HUMANS ARE PART OF A COMPETITIVE PROCESS FOR OUT OF THE CROOKED LIMBER OF HUMANITY NO STRAIGHT THING CAN BE BUILT. AND NEXT IS HUMANISM TO REDUCE THE SUFFERING AND ENHANCE THE FLOURISHING OF OVER HUMAN BEINGS. IN PROVING HUMAN WELFARE YOU MAY THINK WHO COULD BE OPPOSED TO THAT. WELL, THERE'S ALTERNATIVE TO HUMANISM SUCH AS THE MORAL PURPOSE IS TO ENHANCE THE GLORY OF THE TRIBE, THE NATION, THE RACE, THE CLASS OR THE FAITH. TO OBEY THE DICTATES OF A DIVINITY AND PRESSURE OTHERS TO DO THE SAME. TO ACHIEVE FEATS OF HEROIC GREATNESS OR ADVANCE A DIALECTIC OR UTOPIAN OR MESS ANTIC AGE. PEOPLE ARE ENDOWED WITH A SENSE OF SYMPATHY. A CONCERN FOR THE WELFARE OF OTHERS. BY DEFAULT OUR CIRCLE OF SYMPATHY IS RATHER SMALL. WE TEND TO FEEL THE PAIN ONLY OF OUR BIOLOGICAL RELATIVES, OUR CLOSE FRIENDS AND ALLIES, CUTE FURRY BABY ANIMALS AND THAT'S ABOUT IT. BUT OUR CIRCLE CAN BE EXPANDED THROUGH THE FORCES OF COSMOPOLITANISM, REASON, ART, MOBILITY AND AS SOON AS I SIT DOWN TO REASON WITH YOU I CAN'T INSIST ONLY MY INTERESTS COUNT BECAUSE I'M ME AND YOU'RE NOT AND HOPE FOR YOU TO TAKE ME SERIOUSLY. REASON INHERENTLY PRESUPPOSES THE EQUIVALENCE OF REASONERS. FINALLY, WE GET TO PROGRESS TO THE DEDUCTION THAT IF WE APPLY KNOWLEDGE AND SYMPATHY TO REDUCE SUFFERING AND ENHANCE FLOURISHING, WE CAN GRADUALLY SUCCEED. NOW, ONE COULD ASK, IF HUMAN NATURE DOESN'T CHANGE HOW COULD PROGRESS BE POSSIBLE AND AN ANSWER IS IT'S POSSIBLE THROUGH BENIGN INSTITUTIONS WHICH ALLOW US TO DEPLOY ENERGY AND KNOWLEDGE TO PUSH BACK AT EN TROPY IN OUR LOCAL NEIGHBORHOOD. THAT MAGNIFY THE BETTER ANGELS OF OUR NATURE AS ABRAHAM LINCOLN CALLED THEM WITH REASON AND SYMPATHY AND MARGINALIZING OUR INNER DEMONS OUR ILLUSIONS, OUR TRIBALISM AND CURSE FOR DOMINANCE AND VENGEANCE. WHAT DO WE MEAN BY ENLIGHTENMENT INSTITUTIONS? SOME ARE DEMOCRACY, DECLARATIONS OF RIGHTS, MARKETS, ORGANIZATIONS FOR GLOBAL COOPERATION AND INSTITUTIONS OF TRUTH SEEKING SUCH AS ACADEMIES, SCIENTIFIC SOCIETIES, A FREE PRESS AND NATIONAL INSTITUTES OF HEALTH. SO HOW DID THE ENLIGHTENMENT THING WORK OUT? NOT VERY WELL. I FOUND INTELLECTUALS HATE PROGRESS AND INTELLECTUALS WHO CALL THEMSELVES PROGRESSIVE REALLY HATE PROGRESS. IF YOU THINK WE CAN SOLVE PROBLEMS, I HAVE BEEN TOLD, IT MEANS YOU HAVE A BLIND FAITH AND QUASI-RELIGIOUS BELIEF IN THE OUT MOTIVE SUPER STIGS OF THE FALSE PROMISE OF THE MYTH OF THE ONWARD MARCH OF INEVITABLE PROGRESS. YOU ARE A CHEERLEADER FOR VULGAR AMERICAN CAN-DOISM WITH THE RA-RA SPIRIT OF SILICON VALLEY AND THE CHAMBER OF COMMERCE AND BOARDROOM. YOU'RE A PRACTITIONER OF WIG HISTORY. A NAIVE OPTIMIST AND POLY ANNA AND GAN GLASS ALLUDING TO THE VOLTE VOLTERE CHARACTER WHO LOOKED PHOR THE BEST IN ALL POSSIBLE WORLDS. A TRUE OPTIMIST WOULD BELIEVE THERE'S BETTER WORLDS THAN THE ONE WE FIND OURSELVES IN TODAY BUT IT'S ALL IRRELEVANT BECAUSE THE QUESTION OF WHETHER PROGRESS HAS TAKEN PLACE IS NOT A PROBLEM OF OPTIMISM OR A SUNNY DISPOSITION OR SEEING THE WORLD THROUGH ROSE-COLORED GLASSES OR SEEING THE GLASS AS HALF FULL. IT'S AN I EMPIRICAL HIGH. HUMAN HEALTH CAN BE MEASURED, PEACE, SAFETY, KNOWLEDGE, LEISURE, HAPPINESS. IF THEY HAVE INCREASED OVERTIME, I SUBMIT THAT WOULD BE PROGRESS. WELL, LET'S GO TO THE DATA. BEGINNING WITH THE MOST PRECIOUS THING OF ALL, LIFE. FOR MOST OF HUMAN HISTORY, LIFE EXPECTANCY HOVERED AROUND 30 YEARS OF AGE. BUT WITH THE ADVANCEMENT OF ANTIBIOTICS LIFE EXPECT AN SI EXPANDED TO 71 YEARS WORLDWIDE AND VIRTUALLY NO ONE GUESSES IT'S THAT HIGH. THE ESCAPE FROM DEATH WAS HIGHLY UNEVEN OVER THE SURFACE OF THE WORLD. IT WAS COUNTRIES IN EUROPE AND AMERICA THAT FIRST BLASTED OFF IN TERMS OF LIFE EXPECTANCY BUT MORE RECENTLY ASIA HAS ALMOST CLOSED THE GAP AND SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA AS SEEN ADVANCE. THE LARGEST CAUSE TO LOW-LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH THROUGH HISTORY WAS THROUGH THE MORTALITY OF CHILDREN. THE MOST VULNERABLE OF HUMANS. IN SWEDEN, 250 YEARS AGO, ONE THIRD OF NEWBORNS DID NOT SEE THEIR FIRST BIRTHDAY BUT THEY INCREASED THAT FACTOR BY 100 AND OTHER PARTS OF THE WORLD HAVE DONE THE SAME INCLUDING IN NORTH AMERICA, CANADA, ASIA, SOUTH KOREA, LATIN AMERICA, CHILE AND SUB-SAHAR SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA, ETHIOPIA WHICH BROUGHT IT FROM 25% TO 355:%. STILL HIGH BUT THE PROGRESS -- TO 5% STILL HIGH BUT THE PROGRESS IS CONTINUING. MOTHERS TOO WERE IN DANGER. IN SWEDEN 250 YEARS AGO THERE WAS A 1% CHANCE A WOMAN WOULD DIE EACH TIME THE GAVE BIRTH AND THAT WAS REDUCED BY A FACTOR OF 250 REPLICATED IN COUNTRIES LIKE THE UNITED STATES, AMERICAS, MALAYSIA AND ASIA AND ETHIOPIA AND SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA. I DON'T HAVE TO MENTION THROUGH MOST OF HISTORY THE BIGGEST CONTRIBUTOR TO MORTALITY WAS INFECTIOUS DISEASE. NO LONGER TRUE BUT STILL TRUE IN CHILDREN OF POOR COUNTRIES BUT THE RATE OF CHILDHOOD DEATHS FROM THE FIVE MOST LETHAL INFECTIOUS DISEASES HAVE ALL BEEN IN DECLINE JUST IN THE LAST 15 YEARS INCLUDING PNEUMONIA, MA MALARIA AND HIV AIDS. IT TAKES ABOUT 2500 CALORIES TO SUSTAIN AN ACTIVE YOUNG MALE AND FOR MOST OF HUMAN HISTORY, SOCIETIES COULD NOT GROW THAT MANY CALORIES UNTIL THE AGRICULTURE CULTURAL REVOLUTION IN ENGLAND AND ADVANCES IN CROP ROTATION AND LATER THE INVENTION OF SYNTHETIC FERTILIZER AND THE SELECTIVE BREEDING OF VIGOROUS HYBRIDS IN THE 50s AND '60s AND TRANSPORTATION NETWORKS THAT CAN BRING FOOD FARM TO TABLE AND COUNTRY AFTER COUNTRY HAS DEVELOPED A WAY TO FEED ITSELF INCLUDING THE UNITED STATES AND FRANCE. CHINA AND INDIA ARE NOW SELF-SUFFICIENT IN FOOD AND HERE'S THE GRAPH FOR THE WORLD AS A WHOLE. THIS IS A DUBIOUS FORM OF PROGRESS IF ALL THE CALORIES WERE JUST GOING TO MAKING FAT PEOPLE FATTER, BUT IN FACT THEY HAVE DRASTICALLY REDUCED THE RATE OF UNDER NOURISHMENT. IN 1970, 35% OF PEOPLE IN THE DEVELOPING WORLD WERE UNDER NOURISHED. THAT HAS FALLEN TO LESS THAN 15%. FIRST IN LATIN AMERICA AND THEN IN ASIA AND ONCE AGAIN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA IS SHOWING RAPID GAINS. THE MOST SEVERE CONSEQUENCE OF INSUFFICIENT CALORIES TAKE PLACE DURING FAMINE. I WAS ONE OF THE FOUR HORSEMEN OF APOCALYPSE AND COULD DEVASTATE MOST ANY PART OF THE WORLD THROUGH HUMAN HISTORY BUT BECAUSE OF THE ABILITY TO GROW AND TRANSPORT FOOD, FAMINES ONLY HAPPEN IN THE MOST REMOTE AND WAR-TORN PARTS OF THE WORLD AND NO LONGER CAUSED BY THE INABILITY TO PRODUCE FOOD BUT THE ABILITY TO GET IT TO THE PEOPLE WHO NEED IT. PROSPERITY. POVERTY, MANY ECONOMISTS POINT OUT NEED NO EXPLANATION. WHAT NEEDS AN EXPLANATION IS WEALTH. THROUGH MOST OF HUMAN HISTORY THERE WAS LITTLE TO NO GROWTH IN THE PRODUCTION OF WEALTH MEASURED BY THE GROSS WORLD PRODUCT. THIS GRAPH SHOWS GROSS WORLD PRODUCT FROM YEAR ONE TO THE PRESENT AND AS YOU CAN SEE FOR MORE THAN 1600 YEARS, ECONOMIC GROWTH WAS LESS THAN 1 PIXEL HIGH. THEN, WITH THE INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION AND ADVANCES IN TECHNOLOGY, WITH THE SPREAD OF EDUCATION AND WITH THE GROWTH OF FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS AND MARKETS AND MOST RECENTLY WITH GLOBALIZATION, IT'S INCREASED BY A FACTOR OF -- SINCE THE 18th CENTURY. THE GREAT ESCAPE IT WAS CALLED FROM UNIVERSAL SQUALOR AND POVERTY AND DEPRIVATION HAS BEEN UNEVEN CROSS THE WORLD WITH U.S. AND COUNTRY THE FIRST TO MAKE THE GREAT ESCAPE AND RECENTLY SOUTH KOREA HAS SHOT UP FROM A POOR COUNTRY TO RICH ONE. AS HAS CHILE AND LATIN AMERICA AND CHINA AND INDIA ARE SHOWING EXPONENTIAL GROWTH AS THE WORLD AS A WHOLE. ONCE AGAIN, A GLOBAL MEAN IS A DUBIOUS INDICATOR OF PROGRESS IF ALL THOSE GAINS WERE GOING TO THE PROVERBIAL 1%. BUT IN FACT, THEY'VE BEEN GOING TO REDUCING THE RATE OF EXTREME POVERTY DEFINED AS $1.90 PER PERSON PER DAY IN 2011 TO $11 AND BY THATTY -- THAT CRITERIA 90% OF THE POPULATION LIVED IN EXTREME POVERTY AND THAT'S FALLEN TO 9%. THERE'S BEEN A 75% REDUCTION IN THE RATE OF EXTREME POVERTY IN THE LAST 30 YEARS AND VIRTUALLY NO ONE KNOWS ABOUT IT. AS A RESULT INTERNATIONAL INEQUALITY, THE GAP BETWEEN RICH AND POOR COUNTRIES HAS BEEN SHRINKING. WITH THE INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION AND THE GREAT ESCAPE FROM UNIVERSAL POVERTY IT HAD TO INCREASE AS A FEW LUCKY COUNTRIES LEFT THE REST BEHIND WIDENING THE GAP BETWEEN THEM AND WITH THE ADVANCES OF THE LAST DECADE AND POORER COUNTRIES GETTING RICHER THAN POORER COUNTRIES GETTING RICHER INTERNATIONAL EQUALITY HAS TURNED A CORNER AND BEGAN TO DECLINE. WITHIN RICH COUNTRIES INEQUALITY HAS NOT DECLINED BUT HAS INCREASED BUT THAT DOESN'T MEAN RICH COUNTRIES HAVE BECOME INDIFFERENT TO THE PLIGHT OF THEIR NEEDY CITIZENS. QUITE THE CONTRARY. IN 1880 THE DEVELOPED COUNTRIES OF THE WORLD DEVOTED 1.5% OF THEIR GDP TO SOCIAL SPENDING TO SPENDING ON CHILDREN, THE ELDERLY, THE SICK AND THE POOR BUT IN THE 20TH CENTURY, EVERY DEVELOPED COUNTRY WENT ON A BINGE OF SOCIAL SPEND SOG TODAY THE MEDIAN AMOUNT OF REDISTRIBUTION IN OECD COUNTRIES IS 22% UP FROM 1.5% BARELY A CENTURY BEFORE. AS A RESULT, POVERTY IN THE UNITED STATES WHEN MEASURED IN TERMS OF DISPOSABLE INCOME, THAT IS AFTER TAXES AND GOVERNMENT BENEFITS HAS FALLEN FROM ONE-THIRD IN 1960 TO 7% TODAY. AND WHEN POVERTY IS MENTIONED IN TERMS OF CONSUMPTION, WHAT FAMILIES CAN AFFORD TO BUY IN TERMS OF FOOD, CLOTHING AND SHELTER, THE POVERTY RATE HAS FALLEN FROM 30% TO 3%. PEACE. FOR MOST OF HUMAN HISTORY THE NATURAL STATE OF RELATIONS BETWEEN GREAT STATES AND EMPIRES WAS WAR AND PIECE WAS MERELY A BRIEF INTERLUDE BETWEEN WARS. WE CAN SEE THAT IN A GRAPH THAT PLOTS THE PERCENTAGE OF YEARS THE GREAT POWERS OF THE DAY THE 800-POUND GORILLAS THAT CAN PROJECT FORCE BEYOND THEIR BORDERS WERE AT WAR WITH EACH OTHER AND THE GREAT POWERS WERE PRETTY MUCH ALWAYS AT WAR. TODAY, THEY'RE NEVER AT WAR. THE LAST GREAT POWER WAR TOOK PLACE 65 YEARS AGO PINNING THE UNITED STATES AGAINST CHINA AND THERE'S NOT BEEN ONE SINCE. IF WE ZOOM IN NOW ON THE 20th CENTURY WE SEE EVEN AS WARS WERE GETTING LESS FREQUENT AND SHORTER, THE ONES THAT DID TAKE PLACE COULD BE HORRIFICALLY DESTRUCTIVE AND CONTRARY TO PREDICTIONS I AND MANY IN THE ROOM GREW UP WITH THAT IT WAS ONLY A MATTER OF TIME BEFORE WE WOULD SEE WORLD WAR III PITTING THE UNITED STATES AGAIN THE SOVIET UNION WITH NUCLEAR WEAPONS AND A MORE HORRIFIC DEATH TOLL THE SOVIET UNION WENT OUT OF EXISTENCE PEACEFULLY AND THE COLD WAR ENDED AND WORLD WAR III NEVER HAPPENED. IF WE ZOOM IN ON THIS YOU SEE FROM A RATE OF BATTLE DEATHS pGREAT POWER WARS BUT CIVIL WARS, SMALLER WARS, COLONIAL WARS, THE RATE IN THE FEW YEARS AFTER WORLD WAR 20 IS 20 PER 14 100,000 PER YEAR AND AS THE FALLEN TO 1 PER 100,000 PER YEAR. THE 1/20th AND IT WAS UNEVEN FOR THE KOREAN AND CHINESE CIVIL WAR AND IRAN-IRAQ WAR BUT THE DOWNWARD TREND IS UNMISTAKABLE. FREEDOM AND RIGHTS. WE'VE ALL BEEN CONCERNED WITH THE RECESSION OF DEMOCRACY IN COUNTRIES LIKE TURKEY, RUSSIA AND VENEZUELA AND HUNGARY IF YOU MEASURE HOW AUTOCRATIC THEY ARE, YOU SEE FROM A PERIOD OF A COUPLE HUNDRED YEARS AGO WHERE THE NUMBER OF DEMOCRACIES COULD BE COUNTED ON THE FINGERS OF ONE HAND, TODAY A MAN ORT -- MAJORITY ARE DEMOCRAT AND THEY'RE MORE DEMOCRATIC THAN AUTOCRATIC. HOW COULD THAT BE GIVEN EVERYTHING IN THE HEADLINES. REMEMBER WHAT THE WORLD WAS LIKE A FEW DECADE AGO WHEN I WAS AN UNDERGRADUATE IN THE 1970s, HALF OF EUROPE WAS BEHIND THE IRON CURTAIN AND DOMINATED BY COMMUNIST TOTALITARIAN DICTATORSHIPS. SPAIN AND PORTUGAL WERE FASCIST DICTATORSHIPS. GREECE WAS UNDER THE MILITARY GUNTA AND THERE WAS SOUTH KOREA, PHILIPPINES AND INDONESIA, ALL ARE DEMOCRATIC TODAY. COUNTRIES HAVE BEEN ON A WORLDWIDE TREND TO REDUCE THE APPLICATION OF BRUTALITY TO THEIR CITIZENS. SUCH AS IN THE DEATH PENALTY COUNTRY AFTER COUNTRY HAS ABOLISHED CAPITAL PUNISHMENT. IF THE CURRENT TREND CONTINUES WHICH IT PROBABLY WON'T BUT IF IT DID THE WORLD WOULD ABOLISH CAPITAL PUNISHMENT ALTOGETHER BY 2026 FOLLOWING THE WAY OF OTHER BARBARIC INSTITUTIONS SUCH AS CHATTAL SLAVERY AND THE BURNING OF HERETICS AND HUMAN SACRIFICE. JUST TO GIVE AN EXAMPLE, COUNTRY AFTER COUNTRY HAS DECRIMINALIZED HOMO SEXUALITY AND INDIA A COUPLE MONTHS AGO AND THAT APPEARS TO BE A WORLD WIDE TREND. CHILD LABOR FOR MOST OF HUMAN HISTORY, EVERYONE SEND THEIR CHILDREN TO WORK IN FARMS AND FACTORIES. BY 1850 IT WAS 30% OF THE CHILDREN IN ENGLAND. THEN WITH THE RISE OF AFFLUECE SO THAT FAMILIES NO LONGER DEPENDED ON THE LABOR OF THEIR CHILDREN, WITH THE SHIFT IN THE PREMIUM PLACED ON EDUCATION IN MODERN ECONOMIES. KIDS ARE MORE VALUABLE IF THEY WENT TO SCHOOL THAN IN THEY WORKED IN THE FIELD AND WITH THE GENERAL EVALUATION OF THE LIVES OF CHILDREN, THE RATE OF CHILD LABOR HAS GONE DOWN IN COUNTRY AFTER COUNTRY. HERE YOU SEE ITALY AND HERE YOU SEE THE GRAPH FOR THE WORLD AS A WHOLE. IN 2015 THE NOBEL PEACE PRIZE WAS SHARED FOR THE PERSON FOR HIS EFFORTS AT ELIMINATING CHILD LABOR AND THE GRAPHS SHOW THE EFFORTS HAVE HAD REAL RESULTS. VIOLENT CRIME. I IN ANY PART OF THE WORD THAT LIVES THE STATE OF ANARCHY THERE'LL BE HIGH RATES OF FEUDING AND PREDATION. IN MEDIEVAL EUROPE THE HOMICIDE RATE WAS 35 PER 100,000 PER YEAR BUT THEN WITH THE CONSOLIDATION OF MEDIEVAL KINGDOMS FROM THE PATCH WORK OF THIEVE THE HOMICIDE RATE IN VIRTUALLY EVERY EUROPEAN COUNTRY HAS FALLEN BY MORE OF A FACTOR THAN 30 AND STANDS AT 1 PER 100,000 PER YEAR TODAY. A PROCESS OFTEN REPLICATED WHENEVER FRONTIER REGIONS COME IN THE CONTROL OF THE LAW OF LAW AND THE CODE OF VENDETTA OR BLOOD REVENGE OR SELF-HELP JUSTICE WITH POSSES WHICH WAS THE MAIN VIOLENCE REDUCTION TECHNIQUE IN HUMAN HISTORY AND NOT EFFECTIVE ONE IS REPLACED BY THE RULE OF LAW AND A POLICE FORCE AND COURT SYSTEM. THE RATE OF VIOLENT CRIME DOZE DOWN. IT HAPPENED IN CLEN -- COLONIAL ENGLAND AND THE PARTS OF THE WILD WEST AND OTHER AREAS SUCH AS MEXICO CONTINUES TO BE A CRIME-RIDDEN COUNTRY BUT THE RATE WAS FIVE TIMES HIGHER A CENTURY AGO. IF WE ZOOM IN ON THE LAST 50 YEARS OR SO, WE SEE THE UNITED STATES AFTER HAVING UNDERGONE A BOOMING CRIME IN THE '60s, '70s AND '80s R REDUCED THE VIOLENT CRIMES. AND IT'S NOT JUST HOMICIDE THAT'S COME DOWN BUT RATES OF DOMESTIC VIOLENCE INCLUDING AGAINST WIVES AND GIRLFRIENDS AND RAPES AND SEXUAL ASSAULT ARE DOWN 75% SINCE DATA WAS KEEP IN THE EARLY 1970s AND VICTIMIZATION OF CHILDREN INCLUDING AT SCHOOL SUCH AS BULLYING AND PHYSICAL ABUSE AND SEXUAL ABUSE BY CAREGIVERS. INDEED WE'VE GOTTEN SAFER IN JUST ABOUT EVERY WAY THANKS TO ADVANCES IN THE SAFETY ENGINEERING OF AUTOMOBILES AND IN THE ENGINEERING OF HIGHWAYS. YOUR CHANCE OF GETTING KILLED IN A CAR CRASH HAVE FALLEN BY 98%. 96%, I'M SORRY, SINCE A CENTURY AGO. WE ARE 88% LESS LIKELY TO BE MOWED DOWN ON THE SIDEWALK AS PEDESTRIANS. 99% LESS LIKELY TO DIE IN A PLANE CRASH. IN THE YEAR 2018 THE NUMBER OF DEATHS IN THE CRASHES OF COMMERCIAL AIRLINERS WAS ZERO. WE ARE 59% LESS LIKELY TO FALL TO OUR DEATHS. 90% LESS LIKELY TO DROWN AND 92% LESS LIKELY TO DIE BY FIRE AND 92% LESS LIKELY TO BE ASPHYXIATED BUT THERE'S ONE EXCEPTION TO THE TREND OF INCREASED SAFETY AND THIS IS WHAT SAFETY STATISTICIANS CALL ACCIDENTAL DEATH BY SOLID, POISON OR LIQUID AND DEATH OVERDOSES. THIS IS THE AMERICAN OPIOID EPIDEMIC. A RATHER HORRIFYING COUNTER EXAMPLE TO INCREASING SAFETY IN EVER OTHER ASPECT OF MODERN LIFE. AT THE SAME TIME WE'RE 95% LESS LIKELY TO BE KILLED ON THE JOB AND LESS LIKELY TO DIE IN A SO-CALLED ACT OF GOD. THE DEATHS FROM DROUGHTS, RAINFALL, SLIDES, METER STRIKES AND EARTHQUAKES. PRESUMABLY NOT BECAUSE GOD LESS RANGRY WITH US BUT -- ANGRY WITH OUT BUT THE ABILITY TO PREDICT ZACHTERS AND OUR INFRASTRUCTURE AND OUR EMERGENCY RESPONSE SYSTEM. WHAT ABOUT THE QUINTESSENTIAL ACT OF GOD. THE LITERAL BOLT FROM THE BLOOM? YES, WE'RE 97% LESS LIKELY TO BE KILLED BY A BOLT OF LIGHTNING. KNOWLEDGE, THE NATURAL STATE OF HUMANITY IS IGNORANCE AND ILLITERACY. ONLY 15% OF EUROPEANS COULD READ AND WRITE 50 YEARS AGO AND LITERACY WAS A PRIVILEGE OF THE ARISTOCRACY AND ELITES BUT THEN EVERY EUROPEAN AND DEVELOPED COUNTRY INCREASE THE RATE OF LITERACY SO TODAY THERE'S UNIVERSAL LITERACY IN VIRTUALLY EVERY EUROPEAN COUNTRY IN MOST AMERICAN COUNTRIES SUCH AS CHILE, MEXICO IS CLOSE AND THE WORLD AS A WHOLE IS APPROACHING UNIVERSAL LITERACY. TODAY, 80% OF THE WORLD CAN READ AND WRITE. 90% OF THE WORLD UNDER THE AGE OF 25 GLIMPSE INTO THE FUTURE. NOT JUST MEN BUT WOMEN. WHERE AS IN 1970 SIX WOMEN WOULD READ AND WRITE FOR EVERY 10 THAT COULD AND ENGLAND ACHIEVED LITERACY AND THE WORLD IS CLOSE. ALMOST AT GENDER PARITY IN LITERACY EVEN THE COUNTRIES LIKE PAKISTAN ARE MOVING IN THAT DIRECTION AND WE CAN THANK THE OTHER WINNER OF THE NOBEL PEACE PRIZE. AND THEN PERHAPS THE MOST INCREDIBLE ASTONISHING, DIFFICULT TO BELIEVE EXAMPLE OF HUMAN PROGRESS I HAVE COME ACROSS, WE HAVE BEEN GETTING SMARTER. THIS IS TRUE. IN A WELL-DOCUMENTED PHENOMENON CALLED THE FLIN EFFECT I.Q. SCORES INCREASED THREE POINTS A DECADE THROUGH THE 20th CENTURY SO THE AVERAGE PERSON IS 30 I.Q. POINTS SMARTER THAN THEIR COUNTERPART A VINCH -- CENTURY AGO AND AS PART OF THE CONVIENENCEMENTS IN EDUCATION AND QUALITY OF EDUCATION WITH THE UBIQUITY OF ABSTRACT VISUAL SYMBOLS IN EVERY DAY LIFE AND THE TRICKLING DOWN OF ABSTRACT CONCEPTS FROM THE REALMS OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY INTO VERY DAY LIFE. HAVE ANN -- ANY OF THESE GAINS I AM PROVED THE QUALITY OF OUR LIFE? THE ANSWER IS VERY MUCH SO. IN 1870 THE TYPICAL WORKWEEK IN THE UNITED STATES AND EUROPE WAS 62 HOURS. TODAY IT IS LESS THAN 40 HOURS AND IN THE UNITED STATES THE AVERAGE WORKER HAS THREE WEEKS OF PAID VACATION A YEAR. EVEN LONGER IN EUROPE. SOMETHING THAT WAS INCONCEIVABLE IN THE 19 CENTURY AND THANKS TO RUNNING WATER AND ELECTRICITY IN THE LABOR SAVING DEVICES LIKE VACUUM CLEANERS, WASHERS, STOVES AND MICROWAVES. THE AMOUNT OF OUR LIVES WE WASTE ON HOUSEWORK WHICH PEOPLE INDICATE IS THEIR LEAST FAVORITE WAY OF SPENDING THEIR TIME HAS FALLEN FROM 60 HOURS A WEEK TO FEWER THAN 15 HOURS A WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE SHORTENING OF THE WORKWEEK AND THE REDUCTION IN THE AMOUNT OF OUR LIVES THAT WE FORFEIT TO HOUSEWORK, THE AMOUNT OF LEISURE TIME AMERICANS TIME HAS INCREASED SINCE 1965 BOTH FOR MEN AND FOR WOMEN. YOU CAN'T HELP BUT NOTICE THE INCREASE IN LEDGER TIME DECLINED IN THE STARTING IN THE 1990s AND THE REASON FOR THIS DECLINE IS THAT WOMEN TODAY SPEND MORE TIME WITH THEIR CHILDREN. PEN TOO BUT ESPECIAL -- MEN TOO BUT ESPECIALLY WOMEN. INDEED A SINGLE WORKING WOMAN TODAY SPENDS MORE HOURS WITH HER CHILDREN THAN A MARRIED STAY-AT HOME DID IN THE 1950s TO FORGET YOUR STEREOTYPES FROM FATHER KNOWS BEST AND LEAVE IT TO BEAVER. AND BECAUSE OF THE DECLINING COST OF GLIMPSE OF LIFE'S NECESSITY AND INCREASE IN PAYCHECKS THE AMOUNT OF PAYCHECK WE GIVE TO NECESSITIES, FOOD, CLOTHING AND SHELTER HAS FALLEN FROM 60% A CENTURY AGO TO ONE HFR THIRD TODAY. -- ONE-THIRD TODAY. THOSE ARE ALL THE KINDS OF DATA THAT ECONOMISTS LOVE TO MEASURE. HAVE THEY CONTRIBUTED TO THE ULTIMATE GOOD, HAPPINESS? HAVE ALL THE GAINS IN LIFE MADE US HAPPIER? THE ANSWER IS YES. AS COUNTRIES GET RICHER THEY TEND TO GET HAPPIER. AS THE A STRONG CORRELATION IN GDP PER CAPITA AND NATIONAL HAPPINESS. IT'S A LOGARITHMIC RELATIONSHIP SO INCREASE IN INCOME GOES FURTHER IN INCREASING THE HAPPINESS OF POORER PEOPLE THAN RICHER PEOPLE AND FOR 71% OF COUNTRIES FOR WHERE WE HAVE DATA OFFER A SPAN OF 40 YEARS OR SO PEOPLE HAVE GOTTEN HAPPIER. INTERESTINGLY, THE UNITED STATES IS NOT ONE OF THEM. ONE CAN DEBATE THE REASONS BUT THE UNITED STATES WAS A PRETTY HAPPY COUNTRY TO BEGIN WITH THOUGH IT'S GOTTEN A BIT LESS HAPPY. AND CONTRARY TO A WIDESPREAD STEREOTYPE WE'RE LIVING IN AN AGE OF SKYROCKETING SUICIDE, IN FACT THE WORLDWIDE RATE BY DEATH BY SUICIDE HAS BEEN IN STEEP DECLINE BY 40%. AGAIN, THIS IS UNEVEN ACROSS COUNTRIES. THE UNITED STATES HAS SEEN A SMALL INCREASE SINCE THE LOW POINT IN 1999 BUT NEVER HAD A PARTICULARLY HIGH RATE IN THE FIRST PLACE AND HAD HIGHER RATES A CENTURY AGO. HAS THIS PROGRESS COME AT THE EXPENSE OF THE ENVIRONMENT? THE ANSWER IS IT SURELY HAS. BUT AS COUNTRIES GET RICHER, THEY TEND TO CARE MORE ABOUT THEIR ENVIRONMENT. THEY CAN AFFORD MORE ENERGY AND OTHER GOODS IN LIFE WITH LESS DAMAGE TO THE ENVIRONMENT. FOR EXAMPLE, IN THE UNITED STATES SINCE THE PASSAGE OF THE CLEAN AIR AND WATER ACTS IN THE 1970 AND FINDING OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY THE GDP HAS INCREASED BY A FACTOR OF TWO AND A HALF. WE DRIVE TWICE AS MANY MILES BUT THE RATE OF EMISSION OF THE FIVE MAJOR AIR POLLUTANTS HAVE ALL GONE DOWN BY AN AVERAGE OF 60%. THE IDEA WE CAN EITHER HAVE ECONOMIC GROWTH OR DEAL WITH POLLUTION BUT WE CAN'T DO BOTH TURNS OUT TO BE FACTUALLY FACING. BECAUSE OF THE -- FALSE. BECAUSE OF THE EFFICIENCIES IN AGRICULTURE IN TEMPERATE PARTS OF THE WORLD, FEWER FORREST CUT DOWN FOR FARMLAND AND A LOT OF ABANDONED FARMLAND HAS BEEN RECLAIMED SO DEFORESTATION HAS FALLEN TO ZERO. IN THE TROPICAL WORLD, THAT HAS NOT HAPPENED. ALARMINGLY TROPICAL FORESTS CONTINUE TO BE CUT DOWN BUT THE PEAK OF DEFORESTATION TOOK PLACE ABOUT 30 YEARS AGO AND THE OVERALL RATE IS DOWN. WE CAN ALL HOPE THAT IS NOT REVERSED BY THE NEW GOVERNMENT OF BRAZIL. AND THE PART OF THE WORLD SURFACE PROTECTED AGAINST ECONOMIC EXPLOITATION HAS DOUBLED IN THE PAST 30 YEARS FROM 7 FORCE 15% AS HAVE THE PORTIONS OF THE ORGANIZATION THAT ARE PROTECTED. AND THE MAIN DRIVE OF ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION, NAMELY HUMAN BEINGS ARE IN DECLINE. THIS SHOWS THE RATE OF POPULATION INCREASE WHICH PEAKED IN THE 1960s AND HAS COME DOWN QUITE DRAMATICALLY IN RISM COUNTRIES. A PROJECTION OF WORLD POPULATION TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE WORLD IS URBANIZING AND GETTING BETTER EDUCATED AND WOMEN ARE GETTING MORE EMPOWERED ALL OF WHICH REDUCE POPULATION GROWTH SUGGEST THE WORLD'S POPULATION MAY PEAK AT THE YEAR 2070 AND HE GIN TO DECLINE. -- BEGIN TO DECLINE. I HOPE I CONVINCED YOU PROGRESS IS NOT SEEING THE GLASS AS HALF FULL BUT KNOWING HOW MUCH WATER IS IN THE GLASS AND BEING AWARE OF THE FACTS ON POVERTY, EDUCATION, HEALTH, HAPPINESS, LONGEVITY AND SO ON. WELL, HOW IS THE FACT OF HUMAN PROGRESS REFLECTED IN THE NEWS? HERE'S ANOTHER GRAPH. THIS SHOWS THE RESULT OF SENTIMENT MAPPING OF AN ONLINE SAMPLE OF WORLD NEWS THE TALLY OF THE PROPORTION OF POSITIVE WORDS TO NEGATIVE WORDS AND IT SHOWS IN THE LAST SEVEN DECADE IN WHICH THE WORLD HAS BECOME SAFER, MORE PEACEFUL, RICHER, HEALTHIER, LONGER LIVED AND HAPPIER, THE NEW YORK TIMES HAS GOTTEN INCREASINGLY MOROSE AND A SAMPLE OF THE WORLD'S BROADCASTS HAVE GOTTEN GLUMMER AND GLUMMER AS WELL. WHY DO PEOPLE DENY PROGRESS? IT BECOMES TO NATURE OF COGNITIVISM AND PEOPLE CALCULATE RISK IN HOW THEY CAN USE EXAMPLES OF MEMORY. WE USE THE BRAIN'S SEARCH ENGINE AS A SURROGATE FOR DATA ON PREVALENCE. FOR EXAMPLE, PEOPLE WHEN ASKED WILL ESTIMATE TORNADOS KILL MORE PEOPLE EVERY YEAR THAN ASTHMA ATTACKS. ASTHMA ATTACKS KILL 40 TIMES AS MANY MORE PEOPLE BUT TORNADOS MAKE FOR GOOD TELEVISION AND ASTHMA ATTACKS NOT SO MUCH. NEWS IS ABOUT STUFF THAT HAPPENS NOT STUFF THAT NEVER HAPPENS. YOU NEVER SEE A JOURNALIST SAYING I'M REPORTING LIVE FROM A COUNTRY AT PEACE OR A CITY THAT'S NOT BEEN SHOT AT BY TERRORISTS. ALSO, NEWS STATE BILL -- IS ABOUT SUDDEN EVENTS. THE PAPERS COULD HAVE RUN THE HEADLINE 130,000 PEOPLE ESCAPED FROM EXTREME POVERTY EVERY DAY FOR THE LAST 30 YEARS BUT THEY NEVER RAN THAT HEADLINE WITH THE RESULT A BILLION AND A QUARTER PEOPLE ESCAPED FROM POVERTY BUT THEY DIDN'T BECAUSE IT DIDN'T HAPPEN ON A PARTICULAR THURSDAY IN OCTOBER. ALONG WITH THE BUILT-IN BIASES BAKED INTO THE NATURE OF JOURNALISM THERE'S BIASES IN JOURNALISTS CAPTURED IN A SATIRICAL HEADLINE FROM THE HUMOR NEWSPAPER THE ONION, CNN HAS A MEETING TO SEE WHAT THE WORLD SHOULD PANIC ABOUT TODAY. ALSO THERE'S A NEGATIVITY BIAS BUILT INTO ALL OF US. PSYCHOLOGISTS HAVE SHOWN EMOTIONALLY SPEAKING, BAD IS STRONGER THAN GOOD. WE DREAD LOSSES MORE THAN WE ENJOY GAINS. WE CAN MUCH MORE EASILY THINK OF THINGS GOING WRONG THAN RIGHT. ESPECIALLY RECENT EVENTS. PEOPLE CAN REMEMBER NEGATIVE EVENTS IN THEIR PAST BUT TEND TO FORGET HOW BAD THEY WERE AT THE TIME. EXPLAINING AN OBSERVATION BY FRANKLIN PEARCE ADAMS THAT NOTHING IS MORE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE GOOD OLD DAYS THAN A BAD MEMORY. THERE'S ALSO MARKET FORCES ON WOULD-BE PROFITS AND SOCIAL CRITICS. A PESSIMIST SOUNDS LIKE HE'S TRYING TO HELP YOU. OPTIMISM SELLS FRIVOLOUS LIKE THEY'RE TRYING TO SELL YOU SOMETHING. PROMPTING THE MUSICAL HUMOROUS TO SAY ALWAYS PREDICT THE WORSE AND YOU'LL BE HAILED AS A PROPHET. LET ME WRAP UP WITH THREE STEPS OF PROGRESS AND ENLIGHTENMENT. FIRST YOU MAY THINK ISN'T IT GOOD TO BE PESSIMISTIC TO SPEAK TRUTH TO POWER, TO RAKE THE MUCK, TO MAKE SURE PEOPLE DON'T SLDE INTO COMPLACENCY. WELL, NOT EXACTLY. IT'S GOOD TO BE ACCURATE. OF COURSE WE HAVE TO BE AWARE OF PROBLEMS AND DANGERS AND SUFFERING WHEREVER THEY OCCUR BUT WE ALSO HAVE TO BE AWARE OF HOW THEY CAN BE REDUCED BECAUSE EVEN IF THERE ARE DANGERS OF COMPLACENCY, THERE'S ALSO DANGERS OF THOUGHTLESS PESSIMISM SUCH AS FATALISM. IF YOU THINK THE WORLD IS SPIRALING DOWNWARD AND ALL THE EFFORTS TO MAKE THE WORLD A BETTER PLACE HAVE BEEN ABJECT FAILURES, A NATURAL CONCLUSION IS WHY WASTE TIME AND MONEY ON A HOPELESS CAUSE. AS JESUS SAID THE POOR YOU WILL ALL HAVE WITH YOU. INDEED, IF YOU THINK WE'RE DOOMED AND CLIMATE CHANGE DOESN'T KILL US, THEN RUN AWAY ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE WILL, THEN THE NATURAL RESPONSE IS LET'S ENJOY LIFE WHILE WE CAN, EAT, DRINK AND BE MERRY FOR TOMORROW WE DIE. THE OTHER DANGER IS RADICALISM. IF YOU THINK ALL OUR INSTITUTION FAILING AND BEYOND HOPES FOR REFORM, A RESPONSE IS SMASH THE MEASURE. LET'S TEAR IT DOWN IN HOPES ANYTHING THAT RISES FROM THE ASHES WILL BE BETTER THAN WHAT WE HAVE NOW. DRAIN THE SWAMP, BURN THE UMPIRE TO THE GROUND OR -- EMPIRE TO THE GROUND OR BRING AN ASPIRATE WHO PROMISES ONLY I CAN FIX IT. IS PROGRESS INEVITABLE OR A GENERAL FORCE OF NATURE PROGRESS DOESN'T MEAN EVERYTHING BECOMES BETTER FOR EVERYONE, EVERYWHERE ALL THE TIME. THAT WOULD NOT BE PROGRESS, THAT WOULD BE MIRACLE AND PROGRESS IS NOT A MIRACLE. PROGRESS IS THE RESULT OF USING KNOWLEDGE TO SOLVE PROBLEMS. PROBLEMS ARE INEVITABLE AND SOLUTIONS CREATE NEW PROBLEMS THAT MUST BE SOLVED IN THEIR TERM. ALSO, EVEN AGAINST THE BACKDROP OF THE HUMAN PROGRESS THERE COULD ALWAYS BE NASTY SURPRISES AND I MENTIONED A NUMBER OF THEM THIS AFTERNOON. THE TWO WORLD WARS, THE 1960s CRIME BOOM, AIDS IN AFRICA AND THE AMERICAN OPIOID EPIDEMIC AND THE WORLD FACES SEVERE CHALLENGES WE HAVE NOT YET SOLVED THE FOREMOST AMONG THEM, CLIMB -- CLIMATE CHANGE AND THREAT OF WAR. I SUGGEST WE MUST TREAT THEM AS YET UNSOLVED BUT SOLVABLE PROBLEMS RATHER THAN EPOCH LINSES IN WAITING. -- APOCALYPSES IN WAITING AND WE SHOULD LOOK AT POLICY SUCH AS CARBON PRICING AND TECHNICAL PARTICULARLY THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW, ZERO AND EVENTUALLY NEGATIVE CARBON TECHNOLOGIES AND PURSUE DENUCLEARIZATION VIA STRATEGIC STABILITY THAT REDUCES THE CHANCE OF A MISUNDERSTANDING OR ACCIDENT AND THE NEED FOR A RAPID NUCLEAR RESPONSE. AND PROGRAMS OF ARMS LIMITATION AND REDUCTION CULMINATING EVENTUALLY IN GLOBAL ZERO, THE TOTAL ABOLITION OF ALL NUCLEAR WEAPONS. A COUPLE GRAPHS TO SHOW THEY'RE NOT PIPE DREAMS OR ROMANTIC OR UTOPIAN. ONE OF THEM SHOWS THE DEPENDENCE OF PRODUCTION OF CARBON FOLLOWS AN ARC. THE AMOUNT OF CO2 PRODUCED PER DOLLAR OF GDP FIRST IN COUNTRIES LIKE THE U.S. AND U.K. FIRST ROSE AS COAL WAS BURNED IN MASSIVE AMOUNTS BUT AS THEY SHIFTED TO LOWER-CARBON FUELS, FIRST TO PETROLEUM AND THEN GAS AND NOW RENEWABLES AND PERHAPS TO NUCLEAR INCLUDING FOURTH-GENERATION NUCLEAR, MORE WEALTH CAN BE PRODUCED WITH LEGS CO2. CHINA FOLLOWED A MORE EXTREME VERSION PARTICULARLY DURING THE CULTURAL REVOLUTION AND GREAT LEAP FORWARD IN WHICH THEY UNLEASHED HAIRBRAINED SCREENS ON THE POPULATION LIKE BACKYARD SMELTERS WHICH PRODUCED MASSIVE AMOUNTS OF CARBON WITH ZERO ECONOMIC OUTPUT. INDIA HAS TURNED THE CORNER AND THERE'S THE GRAPH FOR THE WORLD AS A WHOLE. IT DOESN'T SHOW, I HAVE TO EMPHASIZE, WE'RE ON TRACK TO DEALING WITH CLIMATE CHANGE. BOTH BECAUSE THE GDP HAS BEEN INCREASING AS CO2 PER DOLLAR HAS BEEN DECREASING BUT WE HAVE TO BRING EMISSIONS DOWN TO ZERO AND EVENTUALLY TAKE OUT THE CO2 WE ALREADY PUMPED IN BUT IT SHOWS THAT MODERN ECONOMIES AND WEALTH PRODUCTION ARE NOT IRREVOCABLY TIED. AND CARBON HAS BEEN REDUCED SINCE THE WORLD -- COLD WAR AND THIS IS PARTLY DUE TO WITHDRAWING FROM THE INTERMEDIATE RANGE NUCLEAR FORCE TREATY AND FAILING TO RESUME. AND DOES THE ENLIGHTENMENT GO AGAINST HUMAN NATURE? AN ACUITY QUESTION FOR ME AS SOMEONE WHO HAS DEFENDED HUMAN NATURAL BUT IS HUMANISM TOO TEPID OR ARID OR FLATTENED TO GET PEOPLE'S PULSES GOING? IS THE CONQUEST OF DISEASE, FAMINE, POVERTY, IGNORANCE BORING? DO PEOPLE NEED TO BELIEVE IN MIRACLES. A FATHER IN THE SKY, A STRONG CHIEF TO PROTECT THE TRIBE, MYTHS OF HEROIC ANCESTORS? I DON'T THINK SO. FOR ONE THING, SECULAR LIBERAL DEMOCRACY S ARE THE TOP DESTINATION OF PEOPLE WHO VOTE WITH THEIR FEET AND I DARE SAY APPLYING KNOWLEDGE AND SYMPATHY TO ENHANCE HUMAN FLOURISHING IS HE HEROIC AND UNLIKE OTHER MYTHS THIS ONE IS TRUE OR NOT FICTITIOUS OR TRUE TO THE BEST OF THE KNOWLEDGE WHICH IS THE ONLY TRUTH WE CAN HAVE. AND IT IS A STORY THAT BELONGS NOT JUST TO ONE TRIBE BUT TO ALL OF HUMANITY. TO ANY CREATURE WITH THE POWER OF REASON AND DEPENDS ON THE CONVICTION LIFE IS BETTER THAN DEATH, HEALTH IS BETTER THAN SICKNESS AND ABUNDANCE IS BETTER THAN WANT AND PEACE IS BETTER THAN WAR, FREEDOM IS BETTER THAN COERCION. HAPPINESS IS BETTER THAN SUFFERING AND KNOWLEDGE IS BETTER THAN SUPER STIGS AND IGNORANCE. SUPERSTITION IS BETTER THAN IGNORANCE. THANK YOU. >> SO WE HAVE TWO MICROPHONES. JUST ALIGN YOURSELVES AND WE'LL START RIGHT, LEFT, RIGHT, LEFT, RIGHT. >> A FEW WEEKS AGO A STUDY CAME OUT SAYING INSECTS ARE IN DECLINE. I REMEMBER WHEN I WAS A KID I USED TO SQUEE-GEE THE WINDOWS EVERY TIME I STOPPED FOR GAS AND I CAN'T REMEMBER THE LAST TIME I DID THAT AND THE PICTURE THAT COMES TO MY MIND IS WHEN WILLIE E. COYOTE ALREADY OVERRAN THE EDGE. >> CARS ARE MORE DYNAMIC SO THE SPLATTERED BUGS OF THE WINDSHIELD IS NOT AN ACCURATE INDICATOR OF INSECT PREVALENCE BUT THERE HAVE BEEN ALARMING DECLINES. THE ENTOMOLOGISTS WHO HAVE LOOKED AT THIS POINT OUT THE WORLD HAS MILLIONS OF INSECTS SPECIES. A TINY NUMBER HAVE BEEN SAMPLED. IT'S PREMATURE TO SAY INSECTS ARE IN COLLAPSE WORLDWIDE. BUT IT IS A PROBLEM AND AGAIN POSSIBLY A SEVERE PROBLEM. ONE WE SHOULD TAKE STEPS TO ADDRESS AS EUROPE RECENTLY HAS IN BANNING I THINK IT'S INSECTICIDED WHICH HAVE THREATENED POLLINATING INSECTS. IT'S NOT THAT THERE'S NO PROBLEMS BUT WE SHOULDN'T HASTILY CONCLUDE EVERY TIME WE SPOT A PROBLEM IT IS AN APOCALYPSE. THOSE HAVE TO BE DISTINGUISHED. >> THANK YOU. VERY NICE TALK. MENTIONED THE MARKETS WERE AN ENLIGHTENMENT INSTITUTION. COULD YOU ELABORATE? >> MARKETS ANTEDATE MARKETS AND IN PARTICULAR GLOBAL MARKETS HAD A SHIFT FROM ROYAL CHARTERS, RICAN TALLISM TO FREE TRADE AND AN UNDERSTANDING OF FROM WHY FREE TRADE IS BETTER THAN CHARTER AND MONOPOLIES AND THE IDEA OF COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE AND THE GENERAL LIBERALIZATION OF TRADE BEGAN ON A GLOBAL SCALE FO THERE WERE EARLIER -- THOUGH THERE WERE EARLIER TIMES AND THE PHOENICIANS WERE GLOBAL TRADERS AND IT'S PART OF ENLIGHTENMENT TRACK LIKE THE WEALTH OF NATION BY SMITH. >> I AGREE WITH EVERYTHING YOU HAVE SAID AND MEANT. SO WHAT CAN WE DO TO PERSUADE YOU TO RUN FOR 2020? >> DOES ANYBODY REMEMBER THE PRINCIPLE THAT PEOPLE RISE TO THE LEVEL OF INCOMPETENCE AND STAY THERE. I'VE RISEN TO THE LEVEL OF MY INCOMPETENCE AND I WILL STAY THERE BUT THANK YOU. >> I WANTED TO ASK YOU SOMETHING THAT MAY BE TOO SPECIFIC I'M NOT SURE BUT IT'S OF INTEREST TO ME. IT'S ABOUT THIS CONTRADICTION BETWEEN HUMANISM AND ENVIRONMENTALISM WHICH YOU POINT OUT IS NOT QUITE THE CASE. SO MY QUESTION IS ABOUT RESEARCH OWN HUMAN PRIMATES AND I KNOW YOU HAVE STUDIED LINGUISTICS IN NON-HUMAN PRIMATES. AS YOU KNOW, THERE'S THOUSANDS OR TENS OF THOUSANDS OF SUBJECTS IN RESEARCH IN THIS COUNTRY AND IN VERY DIFFERENT AREAS FROM VARIOUS AREAS TO ORDER APPLICATIONS THAT AREN'T NECESSARILY EBOLA OR THINGS LIKE THAT. I WANTED TO ASK YOU, WHAT DO YOU THINK WITH THE SUBJECT? DO YOU THINK 100 YEARS FROM FROM NOW THEY'LL SEE IT AS AN ENLIGHTENED ACTIVITY? >> I'M SORRY, ARE YOU ASKING ABOUT THE NON-HUMAN SUBJECTS IN BIOMEDICAL RESEARCH? >> NON-HUMAN PRIMATE SUBJECTS. >> NOT MICE? >> NO, NON-HUMAN PRIMATES. >> THERE'S BEEN HUGE CHANGES SINCE I ENTERED SCIENCE AS AN UNDERGRADUATE. IN BETTER ANGELS OF OUR NATURE I WROTE ABOUT THE POLITICS THAT WERE COMMONPLACE WHEN I WAS A STUDENT INCLUDING STITCHING RATS UP WITHOUT ANESTHESIA AND SOMETIMES CALLOUS CRUEL TREATMENT. THERE WAS ONE PURCHASE -- PROFESSOR WHEN HE GOT ANGRY HE WOULD PICK UP A RAT AND THROW IT AGAINST THE WALL AND HORRIFIC AND THE REFORM OF ANIMALS IN RESEARCH CAME IN THE LATE '70s OR EARLY '80s, I DON'T REMEMBER, AND I DON'T HAVE TO TELL PEOPLE IN AN AUDIENCE LIKE THIS IT'S NOW QUITE PROPERLY HEAVILY REGULATED. WITH THE MORAL ARGUMENT THAT WE SHOULD NEVER USE ANIMALS IN RESEARCH. THAT WOULD BE TOO COMPLEX FOR KNOW WORK THROUGH HERE. MY OWN -- I WOULD ARGUE IT IS JUSTIFIED BUT WITH STRINGENT PROTECTIONS SO THERE IS NO MORE SUFFERING THAN IS ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY TO LEAD TO GREATER REDUCTION OF SUFFERING FOR HUMANS AND ANIMAL IN THE LONG RUN. >> THANK YOU. >> HELLO. THANK YOU FOR YOUR VERY POSITIVE TALK WHICH IS REFRESHING. MY QUESTION IS REGARDING I GUESS AUTOMATION OF WORK. AND I'VE ONLY READ THE HEADLINES NOT THE DATA. YOU COULD SAY THIS IS SOMETHING I DON'T NEED TO BE WORRIED ABOUT AT ALL. BUT FROM WHAT I HEARD, SIMPLE LABOR INTENSIVE JOBS ARE BEING AUTOMATED TO MACHINES AND I FEEL LIKE COLLEGE TUITION IS RISING AND MORE AND MORE DEGREES ARE NEEDED TO WORK IN INTELLECTUAL WORK AND IF THIS TREND EXISTS AND IF IT CONTINUES, WHAT WILL WE ALL BE DOING? >> WELL, PROBABLY ALL OF US WILL BE OKAY. IT'S WHAT WILL ALL THE TRUCK DRIVERS AND FORK LIFT OPERATORS BE DOING. THE ANSWER IS WE DON'T KNOW. BECAUSE THERE'S BEEN VERY FEW SIGNS OF UNEMPLOYMENT PRODUCED BY ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE SO FAR. THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IS CLOSE TO AN ALL-TIME LOW THOUGH OF COURSE MANY PEOPLE HAVE DROPPED OUT OF THE WORKFORCE ALTOGETHER SO THAT COULD BE SOMEWHAT MISLEADING. IN ONE SCENARIO SINCE THE SO MANY TIMES THERE'S BEEN FEAR TECHNOLOGY WOULD PUT PEOPLE OUT OF WORK WHICH HAVE ALWAYS FAILED TO MATERIALIZE BECAUSE NEW -- TO REPLACE THE ONES ELIMINATED. ONE POSSIBILITY IS THE TRUCK DRIVERS WILL BECOME PET PSYCHOLOGISTS OR COSTUME DESIGNERS OR TATTOO ARTISTS. THAT'S ONE SCENARIO. I'M NOT SAYING THAT'S WHAT'S GOING TO HAPPEN BUT IT COULD MAKE UP FOR SOME JOB LOSSES. THE OTHER IS SOCIETY WILL DEAL WITH IT WITH SOME VERSION OF PERHAPS A UNIVERSAL BASIC INCOME WHERE THE DIVIDE FROM PRODUCING THINGS THAT MUCH MORE EFFICIENTLY, IF SOCIETY IS WISE ABOUT IT WILL BE REDISTRICTED TO THE PEOPLE WHO -- REDISTRIBUTED TO THE PEOPLE WHO BEAR THE BRUNT. IT LOOKS AS IF IT'S GETTING LESS AND LESS VIABLE AS AN IDEA AS ECONOMISTS COST IT OUT AND LIMITED LOCAL EXPERIMENTS WITH A UNIVERSAL BASIC INCOME SHOW IT BEEN HOPED FOR.NEFITS THAT HAD - AND AN ALTERNATIVE MAY BE SOMETHING LIKE NEW DEAL PROGRAMS LIKE THE CIVILIAN CONSERVATION CORPS AND THE PROJECT ADMINISTRATION WHERE GOVERNMENTS BECOME EMPLOYERS TO GET PEOPLE TO DO PRODUCTIVE THINGS THAT STILL CAN'T BE DONE BY MACHINES GIVING THE BENEFIT OF EMPLOYMENT AND PRODUCTIVE WITHOUT PUT. NEEDLESS TO SAY WE'RE NOT IN A POLITICAL CLIMATE WHERE THAT'S PARTICULARLY LIKELY BUT THAT COULD CHANGE IF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AND ROBOTICS INCREASE RAPIDLY. A COUPLE QUOTAS TO THAT OBSERVATION. IT'S EASY TO OVERESTIMATE PROGRESS IN ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE. THOSE OUT OF THE HYPE CYCLE WILL SAY IT'S REALLY HARD. AND EVEN SOMETHING LIKE SELF-DRIVING CARS WHICH OUGHT TO BE AN EASY PROBLEM FASTER OR SLOWER AND THE STEERING COLUMN BUT WE STILL DON'T HAVE SELF-DRIVING CARS READY TO GO FROM POINT TO POINT AND WE DON'T KNOW WHEN WE'LL SEE THOSE TO SAY NOTHING OF ROBOTS THAT COULD CHANGE A BABY'S DIAPER. A HARDER TO PUT IT MILDLY. YOU HAVE TO KEEP IN MIND IN THE BIG PICTURE, THE JOBS THAT ARE BEING OUGAUTOMATED A LOT OF THEM ARE AWFUL JOBS. ONES DECADE OF SOCIAL CRITICS WERE MIND-NUMBING, UNHEALTHY MINING COAL, WORKING ASSEMBLY LINES, MAKE BEDS AND ULTIMATELY IF WE HAVE MACHINES PICKING FOOD AND MINING COAL OR MINING WHATEVER WE MINE, THAT OUGHT TO BE A HUGE ADVANCE IN HUMAN WELL BEING IF WE CAN BE AS INGENEOUS IN THE ECONOMIC REALM AND MATCH THE WEALTH WITH THE IDLE HANDS. >> CAN I INTERJECT A QUESTION AND I APOLOGIZE BUT AS A PSYCHIATRIST AND AS YOU LOOK AT THESE INDICATORS THAT ALL OF THEM LOOK VERY GOOD THE ONLY INDICATOR THAT WAS NEGATIVE BUZ -- WAS THE OPIATE CRISES AND SOME OF THE MAIN CHALLENGES WE'LL SEE IN MATERIALS OF HEALTH AND QUALITY OF LIFE AREN'T RELATED TO MENTAL DISEASES. AND SO DO YOU WANT TO COMMENT ON THAT WHY DESPITE THE FACT WE HAVE MANY MORE RESOURCES, WE FIND OURSELVES WITH SOME OF THE INDICATORS OR IS IT BECAUSE WE HAVEN'T LOOKED AT THEM IN TERM OF HOW THOSE DECISIONS HAVE BEEN IN THE PAST? >> IT'S A PROFOUND QUESTION AND ONE THAT I DO TAKE UP IN THE CHAPTER ON HAPPINESS AND ENLIGHTENMENT NOW. IT'S HARD TO KNOW WHETHER MENTAL HEALTH HAS GOTTEN BETTER OR WORSE BECAUSE THE DEFINITIONS ARE OFTEN SO FLUID AND EXPANSIVE AND AS AN EXAMPLE OF HUMAN PROGRESS WE TEND TO BRING MORE PEOPLE INTO THE MENTAL HEALTH SYSTEM THAT PREVIOUSLY WOULD HAVE JUST SUFFERED IN ISOLATION. THAT OF COURSE IS A PROCESS THAT IS NOT YET UNDERWAY. MOST OF THE WORLD IS DRASTICALLY UNDER SERVED IN MENTAL HEALTH AND THIS COUNTRY AS WELL AND MORE SO IN OTHER COUNTRIES AND ONLY PLACE TO USE THE SAME MEASURING STICK OVER TIME IN POPULATION IS FROM THE BURDEN OF DISEASE PROJECT. IT SHOWS THAT SINCE 1990 WHEN THE DATA BEGINS, THAT'S ALMOST 30 YEARS, GLOBAL RATES HAVE BEEN FLAT. IT DOESN'T SEEM TO BE TRUE THE WORLD IS ENTERING A MENTAL HEALTH CRISIS BUT THERE'S ENORMOUS VARIATION IN AGES, COHORTS, SEXES AND COUNTRIES AND SO ON. SOME POPULATIONS HAVE GOTTEN WORSE BUT THE BEST DATA I COULD FIND SUGGESTS THAT AT LEAST IT'S BEEN FLAT. NOW, BEING FLAT, THERE'S A LOT OF SUFFERING THAT WE WANT TO ALLEVIATE AND WE ALL KNOW THAT PSYCHIATRIC DISEASES MAKE UP A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE OVERALL BURDEN OF MORBIDITY AND THERE'S MORE PROGRESS THAT REMAINS TO BE MADE. STILL MORE IF ONE INCLUDES NEUROLOGICAL DISEASES SUCH AS ALZHEIMER'S AND PARKINSON'S AND OTHER DEGENERATIVE DISEASES. >> THANK YOU FOR THE TALK TODAY. SO YOU KIND OF TOUCHED ON IT IN THE EARLY PART OF THE PRESENTATION ABOUT WHAT IS A MORAL CIRCLE. THE FACT WE CARE MORE ABOUT OUR FAMILY, KIN OR PEOPLE WE'RE RELATED TO OR RELATIONS AND THE MEDIA AND SOME RESEARCHERS HAVE SHOWN THIS MORAL CIRCLE HAS BEEN EXPANDING THROUGHOUT HISTORY. SO NOWADAYS WE TAKE MORE CONSIDERATION INTO PEOPLE WE MAY NOT KNOW ON THE VOTE OR IN ANOTHER COUNTRY SO THIS MIGHT CONNECT WITH THE CONCEPT OF GLOBAL PROGRESS. YOU ALSO TALKED ON THE HUMAN NATURAL ASPECT AND WE ALL HAVE OUR OWN PERSON DRIVES. AS A PSYCHOLOGIST DO YOU KNOW OF ANY PSYCHOLOGICAL OR SOCIAL REASONS WHY OUR MORAL CIRCLE MAY BE EXPANDING? >> I SUSPECT IT'S A COMBINATION OF FACTORS. ONE MAY CONSISTENT OF VICARIOUS EXPERIENCE OF OTHER PEOPLE'S LIVES THROUGH JOURNALISM, THROUGH FICTION, THROUGH THEATRE AND DRA MAND TELEVISION THAT MAKE OTHER PEOPLE'S LIVES BECOME REAL, BECOME NOT JUST STATISTICS BUT LIVES YOU CAN IDENTIFY WITH, PAIN YOU CAN FEEL. THE EXPANSION OF JOURNALIVELY SO SO -- JOURNALISM SO WE SEE SUFFERING FROM PEOPLE IN WAR IN WAYS WE COULDN'T BEFORE AND I SHOWED THE PAINT FROM THE NAPOLEONIC WARS AND A FINE AMOUNT OF PEOPLE SEE FINE ART AND THEY'RE PRODUCED YEARS AFTER THE APROS TIS THEMSELVES. -- ATROCITIES THEMSELVES. START THE WAR IN VIETNAM. SAID TO BE THE FIRST WAR BROUGHT INTO PEOPLE'S LIVING ROOMS BECAUSE OF TELEVISION AND THE RESTRAINTS ON TELEVISIONS WHO IN PREVIOUS WARS WERE CENSORED FROM SHOWING CARNAGE. THE HORRORS OF WARS BECAME MORE REAL TO PEOPLE AND THE FAMOUS PHOTOGRAPHS OUT OF VIETNAM OF THE NAKED LITTLE GIRL FLEEING A NAPALM ATTACK IS THE MOST DRAMATIC EXAMPLE. BUT THAT KIND OF GLOBALIZATION OF MEDIA, I THINK, HAS PLAYED A ROLE. BUT ALSO TOGETHER THE ROLE OF REASON AND HUMANISM CAN'T BE UNDER STATED EITHER. THE IDEA WE SHOULD PROMOTE THE WELFARE OF ENGLISH-SPEAKING PEOPLES WHICH WAS A COMMON SLOGAN A CENTURY AGO IN ENGLAND. THAT WOULDN'T SAIL TODAY. WHY ONLY ENGLISH SPEAKING TO SAY NOTHING OF THE WHITE RACES. SO DESPITE SOME PUSHBACK FROM NATIONALISTS POPULISM SUCH AS IN RUSSIA OR UNITED STATES TOWARDS AN ETHNIC NATIONALISM, THAT'S A BACKLASH AGAINST WHAT IS IN GENERAL A TREND TOWARDS IDENTIFYING HUMANITY AS THE PROPER TARGET OF HOUR MORAL CONCERNS. NOW, SOME PEOPLE PREDICTED WE'VE REACHED A TURNING POINT AND WE'LL SEE THE RISE OF ETHNIC NATIONALISM WORLDWIDE AND MAYBE WE WILL BUT MAYBE NOT. THAT CERTAINLY HASN'T BEEN THE DIRECTION OF THE LAST 75 YEARS OR SO OR FOR THAT MATTER, 250 YEARS. >> HI. THANK YOU FOR YOUR TALK. SO SHOULD WE COMPLAIN MORE OR LESS OR JUST RIGHT? >> WE SHOULD BE ACCURATE AND IDENTIFY PROBLEMS AND TRY TO SOLVE THEM BUT RECOGNIZE WHERE THERE HAS BEEN PROGRESS SO WE DON'T BECOME INDIFFERENT TO THE INSTITUTIONS OF DEMOCRACY AND SCIENCE AND INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION. I TEND TO THINK THE INTELLECTUAL JOURNALISTIC MAINSTREAM HAS BEEN INSUFFICIENTLY APPRECIATIVE OF THE PROGRESS AND HAVE GONE FROM TOO COMPLACENT IN THE '60s TO BEING TOO CYNICAL AND FATALISTIC TODAY. I HAVE TO BE WARY OF THROWING IN POLITICAL COMMENTS IN A GOVERNMENT-FUNDED INSTITUTION BUT CERTAINLY THE LAST CANDIDATE FOR PRESIDENT WAS ELECTED ON A DEEP DEEPLY DYSTOPIAN PLATFORM CULMINATING IN THE INFAMOUS CARNAGE INAUGURAL ADDRESS ARGUING CONTRARY TO FACT THAT CRIME HAS NEVER BEEN AT AN ALL-TIME HIGH AND SCHOOLS ARE FAILING AND SO ON. TOGETHER WITH ENERGIZING A PARANOIA OF DEMOCRACY AND GLOBAL COOPERATION LIKE THE U.N. AND E.U., THERE'S DANGER OF PEOPLE BEING DISENGAGED FROM THE ENTIRE ELECTORAL AND CIVIC PROCESS AND PEOPLE BECOMING SO CYNICAL ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF IMPROVEMENT, THEY SAY THERE'S NO DIFFERENCE BETWEEN CANDIDATES ALL POLITICIAN EVIL AND CORRUPT AND THE INSTITUTION FAILING, LET'S DISENGAGE AND PLAY VIDEO GAMES. I THINK THE PENDULUM HAS SWUNG IN THE DIRECTION OF TOO MUCH CYNICISM AND A FAILURE TO APPRECIATE THE BENIGN INSTITUTIONS THAT HAVEN'T SOLVED ALL PROBLEMS BUT MADE A LOT OF THEM LESS SEVERE. >> THANK YOU. SO THE INDICATORS AND THE METRICS DO SUGGEST A STRONG SUCCESSFUL STORY BUT IT'S NOT BEEN NORMALIZED TO THE COST AND EFFORT THAT WENT INTO THE PROGRESS. YOU TOUCHED ON THE ENVIRONMENT BUT ALSO THERE'S A STRONG ARGUMENT, BASICALLY, THE STORY OF PROGRESS AND SUCCESS IN WESTERN EUROPE, WHICH IS ONE OF THE MOST SUCCESSFUL STORIES HAS BEEN PARTLY FUNDED BY PROJECTS OF COLONIALISM AND THE SUFFERING OF OTHER PEOPLES. SO PERHAPS IF WE NORMALIZED AND I CAN'T THINK OF A WAY HOW YOU YOU'D QUANTIFY THAT, BUT IF WE LOOK AT PROGRESS AS COUPLED WITH A COST WITHOUT DENYING IT HAS HAPPENED, PERHAPS THAT COULD EXPLAIN WHY PEOPLE ARE PES PESSIMISTIC NOT THEY'RE WOEFULLY IGNORANT OF WHAT'S BEEN HAPPENING BUT AN ENCHANTMENT OF WHAT WENT INTO PRODUCING IT PERHAPS WE EXPECTED MORE OR WANTED MORE. >> IT'S POSSIBLE TO QUANTIFY TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE COSTS IN ANY OF THE GLOBAL STATISTICS SUCH AS LONGEVITY, LITERACY, WAR DEATHSES OR PROSPERITY. ALL OF WHICH SHOW THE EXPANSION IN THE WEST WITH ENGLAND AND THE UNITED STATES ESCAPING THE PACK EARLIEST, DID NOT DIRECTLY COME AT THE EXPENSE OF THE REST OF THE WORD IN ZERO SUM FASHION. IF THE ADVANCE IN EUROPE CAME AT THE EXPENSE OF THE DEVELOPING WORLD, THEN OVERALL PROSPERITY WOULD BE FLAT. MOREOVER, IT WOULD NOT BE POSSIBLE FOR COUNTRIES LIKE INDIA AND CHINA TO HAVE BECOME HEALTHIER AND WEALTHIER UNLESS THEY IN TURN GOT TO COLONIZE OTHER PARTS OF THE WORLD AND THAT'S BEEN THE RECENT HISTORY. I DON'T THINK IT'S SIMPLY A TALE OF SCOMPLOIEXPLOITATION THOUGH THERE WERE CRIMES IN WESTERN IMPERIALISM AS THERE WERE IN ERAS BEFORE. THE CURRENT DISCONTENT, ALSO, I DON'T THINK COMES FROM A SUDDEN RETROSPECTIVE SIM PATHY TO PARTS OF THE DEVELOPING WORLD DURING THE ERA OF EUROPEAN AND AMERICAN EXPANSION BECAUSE IT'S THOSE PARTS OF THE WORLD IN RECENT DECADES HAVE BECOME THE MOST OPTIMISTIC AND IT'S THE ADVANCED COUNTRIES LIKE UNITED STATES AND FRANCE WHERE PEOPLE HAVE BECOME THE MOST PESSIMISTIC. IT'S NOT A SUDDEN CONCERN FOR THE WELL BEING OF NIGERIANS AND BANGLADESHIS BECAUSE THEY'RE RATHER PLEASED WITH WHAT'S HAPPENING ON THE WHOLE. AND IT'S THE PERHAPS UNGRATEFUL WEALTHY WHO ARE THE CYNICS. >> HI. IN NATURE VERSUS NURTURE. WHAT IS YOUR OPINION? AND I DON'T KNOW WHAT THE CONCLUSION WAS OF THE BLANK SLATE. >> THE ANSWER IS THERE'S NOT ONE NATURE/NURTURE QUESTION BUT MANY AND THERE'S A QUESTION OF WHAT GOES INTO HUMAN NATURE. WHY ARE WE DIFFERENT FROM CHIMPANZEES AND GORILLAS AND MONKEYS AND MICE AND A QUESTION OF WHY MEN DIFFER FROM WOMEN AND WHY INDIVIDUALS DIFFER. WHY IN A GIVEN NEIGHBORHOOD OR POPULATION, LISA DIFFERS FROM JENNIFER OR MICHAEL DIFFERS FROM DAVID. THEN THE QUESTION OF WHY HUMAN GROUPS DIFFER, ETHNIC GROUPS AND RACES. SO THE ANSWERS TO THOSE QUESTIONS MAY BE DIFFERENT. THE PLIS IN WHICH WE HAVE THE MOST -- PLACE IN WHICH WE HAVE THE MOST DATA AND OUR ANSWERS COULD BE MOST CONFIDENT SIMPLY BECAUSE OF THE DEGREE OF QUANTITATIVE DATA COMES IN INDIVIDUAL DIFFERENCES. WHAT MAKES INDIVIDUAL PEOPLE WITHIN A POPULATON DIFFER FROM ONE ANOTHER. THERE, THE RESULTS ARE SO REPLICABLE, THEY'VE EVEN BEEN CALLED A BIT TONGUE AND CHEEK THE THREE LAWS OF BEHAVIORAL GENETICS. THE FIRST IS THAT ALL BEHAVIORAL TRAITS ARE INHERIT ITABLE MEANING THE DIFFERENCES AMONG INDIVIDUALS ARE CAUSED BY DIFFERENCES IN THEIR GENES IN PART. PROBABLY ABOUT 50% OF THE VARIANTS AVERAGING OVER MANY POPULATIONS AND SECOND LAW IS THE EFFECT OF GENES IS FAR STRONGER THAN THE EFFECTS OF FAMILIES AND SHARED ENVIRONMENT GIVEN UP IN A DIFFERENT HOUSEHOLD. MEETING 10% OF THE VARIANTS AND MOST COMES FROM THE PARENTS AND YOUR NEIGHBORHOOD. AND THE THIRD LAW BEING A LOT OF VARIATION IS NEITHER FAMILIAL NOR GENETIC I SUSPECT DUE TO ENVIRONMENTAL NOISE. THE FOURTH WHICH HAS BEEN ADDED BY ONE OF MY FORMER STUDENTS, JAMES LEE WITH OTHERS IS A FOURTH LAW AND MOST BEHAVIORAL TRAITS ARE THE PRODUCT OF LARGE NUMBERS OF GENES WITH SMALL EFFECT. THE OLD IDEA THERE WOULD BE A GAUGING AND MUSICAL TALENT GENE AND HIGH I.Q. GENE TURNS OUT TO BE WRONG FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF CONDITIONS WE KNOW ABOUT. IT DOESN'T NEGATE THE FIRST LAW THERE'S ENORMOUS GENETIC CAUSATION BUT IT'S DISTRIBUTED OVER THOUSAND OR HUNDREDS OF GENES. OR IN A SMALL NUMBER OF GENES THAT ARE RARE IN THE POPULATION AND THEREFORE ARE HARD TO DETECT. ANYWAY, THAT'S THE SUMMARY OF WHAT I THINK WE KNOW ABOUT ONE OF THE NATURE/NURTURE QUESTION AND VARIATION WITHIN A CULTURE. >> IF PEOPLE HAVE ADHD OR ANXIETY DISORDERS IS IT GENETIC OTHER THAN ENVIRONMENTAL UPBRINGING OR ISSUES LIKE THAT? IF PEOPLE HAVE ADHD OR ANXIETY DISORDERS IS IT NATURE OR NURTURE? >> THOSE TEND TO FALL UNDER THE FOUR LAWS OF BEHAVIORAL GENETICS I MENTIONED AS WITH INTERINDIVIDUAL VARIATION. THIS IS ANOTHER DISCOVERY FROM BEHAVIORAL GENETICS TENDS TO BE GENETIC -- THIS IS A HUGE GENERALIZATION WITH INDIVIDUAL VARIATION. SO WHEN WE MAKE A CUT-OFF AND SAY TO PEOPLE ON THIS SIDE OF THE CUT-OFF WE'LL SAY YOU HAVE A DISORDER, THE CAUSES TEND TO BE A CONTINUOUS WITH THE REST OF THE DISTRIBUTION AND THEY WOULD BE AGAIN GENETICS MATTERS. FAMILY UPBRINGING NOT NEARLY AS MUCH AS, IF AT ALL, AND A LOT WE DON'T UNDERSTAND OR THAT'S DUE TO A LOT OF RANDOM INFLUENCES WITH DEVELOPMENT. ALMOST AS IMPORTANT AS THE EFFECT OF THE GENES AND FAR MORE IMPORTANT THAN EFFECTS OF FAMILIES. THAT WOULD PROBABLY BE ACCURATE FOR ADHD, VULNERABILITY TO ADDICTION, SCHIZOPHRENIA, LOTS OF ANXIETY, DEPRESSION, LOTS OF CONDITIONS WOULD FALL UNDER THAT GENERALIZATION. >> LAST ONE TO THE LEFT. >> THANK YOU, GREAT TALK. SO MY QUESTION RELATES TO THE MENTAL HEALTH ISSUES WE WERE TALKING ABOUT AND ONE IDEA I'VE BEEN HEARING RECENTLY IS THE NEW TECHNOLOGICAL AGE OF BEING CONNECTED ALL THE TIME. I'M WONDERING IF THAT'S A PROBLEM THAT HAS MORE WEIGHT IN THE ACADEMIC SPHERE OR A REASON TO BELIEVE IT'S A PROBLEM WE SHOULD ADDRESS AND IF SO, WHAT DO YOU THINK IS THE BEST WAY TO TACKLE IT FOR PROGRESS FOR PROBLEM SOLVING. >> FROM THE LAST YEAR THERE'S BEEN A HUGE PANIC OVER THE ROLE OF SOCIAL MEDIA IN ALLEGEDLY LEADING TO EPIDEMICS OF DEPRESSION, PARTICULARLY IN THE POST-MILLENNIAL GENERATION POST POST-GEN PARTLY DUE TO AN ARTICLE LAST SUMMER BY A RESEARCHER I RESPECT VERY MUCH. THE ANALYSES SINCE THE ARTICLE HAS COME OUT HAS TENDED TO CAST DOUBT ON THIS HYPOTHESIS. WHILE IT'S TRUE THE UTTER ADDICTS OF SOCIAL MEDIA THE ONES ON ALL THEIR WAKING HOURS ARE PRETTY MISERABLE, IT'S THE EXTREME OF WHAT MEDIA THE CONTINUUM AND THERE MAY BE AN OPTIMAL AMOUNT OF SOCIAL MEDIA USE EVEN AT THE EXTREME CORRELATION AND CAUSATION ARE NOT EASY TO DISEN TANGLE AND LONELY, MISERABLE PEOPLE LOSE THEMSELVES IN SOCIAL MEDIA ROGER THAN CONSUMPTION MAKING THEM MISERABLE IN THE FIRST PLACE. MANY OTHER INDICATORS OF GENERATIONAL WELL BEING FEEL THE YOUNG GENERATION AS YOUNG GENERATIONS GO ARE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. THEY'RE LESS LIKELY TO GET PREGNANT AND DRUG ADDICT AND LESS LIKELY TO BE KILLED IN ACCIDENTS AND LESS LIKELY TO SHOOT EACH OTHER. IT'S ACTUALLY BY MANY MEASURES IT'S THE BABY BOOM GENERATION MOST SCREWED UP. SO THERE IS CAUSE FOR CONCERN. THERE'S SOME BULLYING AND SOME MISERY BUT THE IDEA A GONE RATION IS BEING RUINED APERCENT TO BE HYPERBOLIC ON THE DATA AND HAPPINESS EFFECTS TEND TO BE SMALL WHEN QUANTIFIED IF ANY. >> LET'S THANK DR. PINKER FOR A FANTASTIC LECTURE.