1 00:00:05,205 --> 00:00:07,140 >> HELLO, WELCOME TO THE 21ST 2 00:00:07,207 --> 00:00:11,044 YEAR OF A COURSE CALLED 3 00:00:11,111 --> 00:00:13,079 DEMYSTIFYING MEDICINE HELD AT 4 00:00:13,146 --> 00:00:18,084 THE NATIONAL INSTITUTES OF 5 00:00:18,151 --> 00:00:22,455 HEALTH IN BETHESDA, MARYLAND. 6 00:00:22,522 --> 00:00:24,991 THIS IS A COURSE THAT IS 7 00:00:25,058 --> 00:00:26,626 DESIGNED TO BRIDGE EXCITING 8 00:00:26,693 --> 00:00:29,763 DEVELOPMENTS IN BIOLOGY AND 9 00:00:29,829 --> 00:00:34,401 ENGINEERING AND COMPUTER 10 00:00:34,467 --> 00:00:35,235 SCIENCES WITH MEDICINE. 11 00:00:35,301 --> 00:00:39,172 IT IS HELD TUESDAYS FROM JANUARY 12 00:00:39,239 --> 00:00:41,775 TO EARLY MAY FROM FOUR TO SIX 13 00:00:41,841 --> 00:00:50,350 AND YOU CAN WATCH IT LIVE ON THE 14 00:00:50,417 --> 00:00:53,520 VIDEOCAST LISTED ON THE SLIDE. 15 00:00:53,586 --> 00:00:56,623 AS YOU NOTED, THE CME CREDIT IS 16 00:00:56,689 --> 00:01:00,860 AVAILABLE AND THE CODE NUMBER 17 00:01:00,927 --> 00:01:05,498 FROM TODAY IS 52,093. 18 00:01:05,565 --> 00:01:08,735 NEXT SLIDE, PLEASE. 19 00:01:08,802 --> 00:01:13,940 THE SPEAKERS HAVE NO RELEVANT 20 00:01:14,007 --> 00:01:15,241 FINANCIAL INTEREST. 21 00:01:15,308 --> 00:01:17,343 NEXT SLIDE, PLEASE. 22 00:01:17,410 --> 00:01:20,914 NOW, WOULD YOU PLEASE GO BACK TO 23 00:01:20,980 --> 00:01:23,783 THE FIRST SLIDE OF MINE. 24 00:01:23,850 --> 00:01:29,956 THE LOGO FOR THIS COURSE IS 25 00:01:30,023 --> 00:01:32,459 SHOWN IN THE -- IN THE UPPER 26 00:01:32,525 --> 00:01:33,293 RIGHT. 27 00:01:33,359 --> 00:01:35,028 IT IS A PHOTOGRAPH OF WHAT MANY 28 00:01:35,094 --> 00:01:37,897 OF US CONSIDER THE MOST 29 00:01:37,964 --> 00:01:40,300 IMPORTANT BRIDGE OF THE WORLD, 30 00:01:40,366 --> 00:01:44,003 THE BROOKLYN BRIDGE, CONNECTING 31 00:01:44,070 --> 00:01:44,604 BROOKLYN AND MANHATTAN. 32 00:01:44,671 --> 00:01:46,873 AND IT IS THE LOGO OF THIS 33 00:01:46,940 --> 00:01:49,142 COURSE BECAUSE IT INDICATES TWO 34 00:01:49,209 --> 00:01:50,910 INDIVIDUALS STANDING ON THE 35 00:01:50,977 --> 00:01:53,546 CATWALK, ONE FROM EACH AREA, 36 00:01:53,613 --> 00:01:54,981 DISCUSSING AN IMPORTANT AREA 37 00:01:55,048 --> 00:01:58,585 ABOUT WHICH EACH HAS AN ENTIRELY 38 00:01:58,651 --> 00:02:00,687 DIFFERENT EXPERIENCE AND 39 00:02:00,753 --> 00:02:01,554 KNOWLEDGE. 40 00:02:01,621 --> 00:02:05,592 AND SO THE WHOLE CONCEPT OF THE 41 00:02:05,658 --> 00:02:08,328 BRIDGING IS ILLUSTRATED IN ALL 42 00:02:08,394 --> 00:02:11,564 OF OUR PROGRAMS OVER THE PAST 21 43 00:02:11,631 --> 00:02:11,764 YEARS. 44 00:02:11,831 --> 00:02:16,436 NOW, ALL OF THE PREVIOUS 45 00:02:16,503 --> 00:02:18,705 SESSIONS ARE ARCHIVED AND YOU 46 00:02:18,771 --> 00:02:20,306 CAN VISUALIZE THEM BY GOING TO 47 00:02:20,373 --> 00:02:23,042 THE LINK AS SHOWN HERE. 48 00:02:23,109 --> 00:02:25,445 IF YOU HAVE ANY ADDITIONAL 49 00:02:25,512 --> 00:02:27,413 QUESTIONS, GET IN TOUCH WITH US 50 00:02:27,480 --> 00:02:30,984 AND WE HAVE LISTED THE 51 00:02:31,050 --> 00:02:32,085 APPROPRIATE LINK. 52 00:02:32,151 --> 00:02:36,523 NOW, WE URGE THE MANY OF YOU WHO 53 00:02:36,589 --> 00:02:42,595 ARE ONLINE HERE AT NIH AND 54 00:02:42,662 --> 00:02:43,930 ELSEWHERE, INCLUDING ABOUT 38 55 00:02:43,997 --> 00:02:47,367 DIFFERENT COUNTRIES OF THE 56 00:02:47,433 --> 00:02:50,870 WORLD, TO SUBMIT QUESTIONS VIA 57 00:02:50,937 --> 00:02:54,440 THE "SEND LIVE FEEDBACK" ON YOUR 58 00:02:54,507 --> 00:02:55,308 VIDEOCAST DISPLAY. 59 00:02:55,375 --> 00:02:58,144 AND AFTER OUR SPEAKERS HAVE 60 00:02:58,211 --> 00:02:59,679 PRESENTED THEIR -- MADE THEIR 61 00:02:59,746 --> 00:03:02,515 PRESENTATIONS, WE WILL HAVE AN 62 00:03:02,582 --> 00:03:07,287 ABUNDANT TIME FOR DISCUSSION OF 63 00:03:07,353 --> 00:03:08,655 QUESTIONS, ANSWERS, PROBLEMS AND 64 00:03:08,721 --> 00:03:13,993 WHATEVER YOU CHOOSE TO BRING UP. 65 00:03:14,060 --> 00:03:16,963 NEXT SLIDE, PLEASE. 66 00:03:17,030 --> 00:03:17,497 NEXT ONE. 67 00:03:17,564 --> 00:03:22,602 OKAY, SO IN THINKING ABOUT 68 00:03:22,669 --> 00:03:24,103 TODAY'S PROGRAM, WHICH CONCERNS 69 00:03:24,170 --> 00:03:28,207 IN ONE SENSE ONE OF THE BROADEST 70 00:03:28,274 --> 00:03:30,009 CHALLENGES FACING ALMOST ALL 71 00:03:30,076 --> 00:03:34,881 ASPECTS OF OUR LIVES INCLUDING 72 00:03:34,948 --> 00:03:36,282 MEDICINE AND HEALTH, AND THAT IS 73 00:03:36,349 --> 00:03:40,386 THE ISSUE OF GLOBAL WARMING. 74 00:03:40,453 --> 00:03:42,255 SO IN THINKING ABOUT IT, THESE 75 00:03:42,322 --> 00:03:45,191 ARE SOME OF THE QUESTIONS I CAME 76 00:03:45,258 --> 00:03:50,129 UP WITH, WHICH I SUSPECT OUR 77 00:03:50,196 --> 00:03:51,497 SPEAKERS WILL ADDRESS. 78 00:03:51,564 --> 00:03:54,434 ARE HUMAN ACTIVITIES INVOLVED? 79 00:03:54,500 --> 00:03:56,869 AND OF ALL THE INFORMATION THAT 80 00:03:56,936 --> 00:03:59,072 WE READ ABOUT AND HEAR ABOUT, 81 00:03:59,138 --> 00:03:59,739 WHAT IS REAL? 82 00:03:59,806 --> 00:04:05,445 AND WHAT IS SORT OF 83 00:04:05,511 --> 00:04:06,579 DISINFORMATION? 84 00:04:06,646 --> 00:04:09,182 IS WARMING INEVITABLE WITH ALL 85 00:04:09,248 --> 00:04:11,084 OF ITS CONSEQUENCES IN ALMOST 86 00:04:11,150 --> 00:04:13,152 EVERY AREA OF BIOLOGY? 87 00:04:13,219 --> 00:04:16,489 IS IT LIKELY TO BE REVERSIBLE? 88 00:04:16,556 --> 00:04:19,225 AND WHAT ARE THE MOST SERIOUS 89 00:04:19,292 --> 00:04:24,631 EFFECTS OF GLOBAL WARMING? 90 00:04:24,697 --> 00:04:25,798 AFFECTS THAT ALSO INFLUENCE 91 00:04:25,865 --> 00:04:29,402 HUMAN HEALTH AND MEDICINE. 92 00:04:29,469 --> 00:04:32,205 AND DO THE EFFECTS COMPOUND, FOR 93 00:04:32,271 --> 00:04:35,141 EXAMPLE, THE CHANGING OF THE 94 00:04:35,208 --> 00:04:39,045 TEMPERATURE OF THE OCEAN, AFFECT 95 00:04:39,112 --> 00:04:43,282 ENVIRONMENTAL ACTORS ON DRY 96 00:04:43,349 --> 00:04:43,516 LAND? 97 00:04:43,583 --> 00:04:47,353 ALSO HOW MUCH WARMING CAN THE 98 00:04:47,420 --> 00:04:48,788 HUMAN BODY ACTUALLY TAKE? 99 00:04:48,855 --> 00:04:52,759 AND DO OTHER SPECIES TOLERATE 100 00:04:52,825 --> 00:04:59,399 WARMING BETTER THAN WE DO? 101 00:04:59,465 --> 00:05:07,807 AND THEN LOOKING TO THE EXCITING 102 00:05:07,874 --> 00:05:09,742 POTENTIAL FRONTIERS, ASIDE FROM 103 00:05:09,809 --> 00:05:10,977 AVOIDING WARMING FROM POLICIES 104 00:05:11,044 --> 00:05:12,845 AND THINGS WE WILL HEAR ABOUT, 105 00:05:12,912 --> 00:05:17,283 ARE THERE WAYS TO 106 00:05:17,350 --> 00:05:18,418 PHYSIOLOGICALLY TO SOMEHOW 107 00:05:18,484 --> 00:05:20,319 INCREASE THE ABILITY OF THE 108 00:05:20,386 --> 00:05:22,021 HUMAN SPECIES TO TOLERATE MORE? 109 00:05:22,088 --> 00:05:24,090 WELL, I AM SURE YOU ALL WILL 110 00:05:24,157 --> 00:05:26,325 HAVE MANY, MANY MORE QUESTIONS 111 00:05:26,392 --> 00:05:28,928 SO WE ENCOURAGE YOU TO PRESENT 112 00:05:28,995 --> 00:05:32,498 THEM AS I INDICATED. 113 00:05:32,565 --> 00:05:33,232 NEXT SLIDE, PLEASE. 114 00:05:33,299 --> 00:05:38,237 SO OUR TWO SPEAKERS -- AND WE'RE 115 00:05:38,304 --> 00:05:39,639 EXTREMELY FORTUNATE TODAY TO 116 00:05:39,706 --> 00:05:43,142 HAVE TWO VISITORS WHO ARE 117 00:05:43,209 --> 00:05:45,878 EXPERTS AT THE TOP OF THEIR 118 00:05:45,945 --> 00:05:46,779 FIELD. 119 00:05:46,846 --> 00:05:52,051 SO THE FIRST SPEAKER IS GOING TO 120 00:05:52,118 --> 00:06:00,293 BE GABRIEL VECCHI WHO RECEIVED 121 00:06:00,359 --> 00:06:02,595 A BACHELOR'S DEGREE FROM ROGERS 122 00:06:02,662 --> 00:06:09,469 AND THEN MASTERS AND PH.D. IN 123 00:06:09,535 --> 00:06:10,503 OCEANOLOGY AT THE UNIVERSITY OF 124 00:06:10,570 --> 00:06:10,837 WASHINGTON. 125 00:06:10,903 --> 00:06:14,273 HE IS PROFESSOR OF GEOSCIENCES 126 00:06:14,340 --> 00:06:18,745 AT PRINCETON AND DIRECTOR OF THE 127 00:06:18,811 --> 00:06:20,780 HIGH MEADOWS ENVIRONMENTAL 128 00:06:20,847 --> 00:06:27,353 INSTITUTE WHICH IS, AS 129 00:06:27,420 --> 00:06:30,523 INDICATED, A MULTIFACULTY 130 00:06:30,590 --> 00:06:32,992 OPERATION CENTER INVOLVING 140 131 00:06:33,059 --> 00:06:35,261 FACULTY IN 30 DIFFERENT 132 00:06:35,328 --> 00:06:36,829 DEPARTMENTS AND ITS WHOLE GOAL 133 00:06:36,896 --> 00:06:42,668 IS TO CREATE A COMPLEX SYSTEM TO 134 00:06:42,735 --> 00:06:46,105 STUDY HOW THE INFLUENCES OF 135 00:06:46,172 --> 00:06:49,842 GLOBAL HEALTH AND GLOBAL WARMING 136 00:06:49,909 --> 00:06:50,843 INFLUENCES HUMAN ACTIVITY. 137 00:06:50,910 --> 00:06:52,945 AND TO TRY AND COME UP WITH 138 00:06:53,012 --> 00:06:58,618 SOLUTIONS TO LOCAL AND GLOBAL 139 00:06:58,684 --> 00:07:01,220 CHALLENGES, ALL BASED ON JUST 140 00:07:01,287 --> 00:07:02,789 ABOUT EVERY RESEARCH AND THIS OF 141 00:07:02,855 --> 00:07:05,358 COURSE IS A RICH AREA FOR 142 00:07:05,424 --> 00:07:06,893 TRAINING FOR FUTURE LEADERS IN 143 00:07:06,959 --> 00:07:08,828 THE MULTIPLE FIELDS THAT ARE 144 00:07:08,895 --> 00:07:11,397 EMBRACED IN THE OVERALL PILOT OF 145 00:07:11,464 --> 00:07:14,100 GLOBAL WARMING. 146 00:07:14,167 --> 00:07:17,537 NOW, HE IS ALSO ASSOCIATE -- 147 00:07:17,603 --> 00:07:19,806 DEPUTY DIRECTOR OF THE 148 00:07:19,872 --> 00:07:21,007 COOPERATIVE INSTITUTE FOR 149 00:07:21,073 --> 00:07:24,177 MODELING EARTH SYSTEMS AND THIS 150 00:07:24,243 --> 00:07:26,712 INSTITUTE MODELS CLIMATE 151 00:07:26,779 --> 00:07:30,216 SCIENCE, EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS, 152 00:07:30,283 --> 00:07:35,021 HURRICANES, MECHANISMS OF 153 00:07:35,087 --> 00:07:37,056 PRECIPITATION VARIABILITY, OCEAN 154 00:07:37,123 --> 00:07:37,757 ATMOSPHERE INTERACTION, 155 00:07:37,824 --> 00:07:44,463 DETECTION AND AT TRIBUTION. 156 00:07:44,530 --> 00:07:47,600 WELL, THIS IS A BROAD AREA OF 157 00:07:47,667 --> 00:07:49,969 EXPERTISE AND IS WELL-SUITED TO 158 00:07:50,036 --> 00:07:51,971 SPEAK TO US TODAY ABOUT THE 159 00:07:52,038 --> 00:07:53,339 IMPACT OF EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS 160 00:07:53,406 --> 00:07:56,909 SUCH AS THE HORRIFIC 161 00:07:56,976 --> 00:08:01,214 CONSEQUENCES OF CLIMATE CHANGE 162 00:08:01,280 --> 00:08:02,782 AND EXPECTED DOMINANT DRIVERS OF 163 00:08:02,849 --> 00:08:05,918 EXTREME WEATHER IN THE DECADES 164 00:08:05,985 --> 00:08:06,252 TO COME. 165 00:08:06,319 --> 00:08:12,058 NOW, OUR SECOND SPEAKER IS 166 00:08:12,124 --> 00:08:20,299 MICHAEL SAWKA WHO GRADUATED FROM 167 00:08:20,366 --> 00:08:22,401 EAST STROMBERG UNIVERSITY AND 168 00:08:22,468 --> 00:08:25,838 RECEIVED A PH.D. AT SOUTHERN 169 00:08:25,905 --> 00:08:30,443 ILLINOIS UNIVERSITY. 170 00:08:30,509 --> 00:08:30,943 FOLLOWING POST-DOCTORAL 171 00:08:31,010 --> 00:08:33,679 TRAINING, HE BECAME ULTIMATELY 172 00:08:33,746 --> 00:08:36,883 THE CHIEF SCIENTIFIC OFFICER IN 173 00:08:36,949 --> 00:08:39,619 ENVIRONMENTAL PHYSIOLOGY AND 174 00:08:39,685 --> 00:08:42,154 HYDRATION IN CANTON, GEORGIA. 175 00:08:42,221 --> 00:08:46,692 AND IS NOW AN ADJUNCT PROFESSOR 176 00:08:46,759 --> 00:08:48,394 OF PRACTICE AT THE SCHOOL OF 177 00:08:48,461 --> 00:08:50,897 BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES AND SCHOOL 178 00:08:50,963 --> 00:08:53,199 OF APPLIED PHYSIOLOGY AT THE 179 00:08:53,266 --> 00:08:57,403 GEORGIA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY. 180 00:08:57,470 --> 00:09:00,740 MICHAEL HAS SPENT 32 YEARS AS A 181 00:09:00,806 --> 00:09:03,809 RESEARCH PHYSIOLOGIST IN THE 182 00:09:03,876 --> 00:09:06,479 U.S. ARMY MEDICAL RESEARCH 183 00:09:06,545 --> 00:09:07,446 DEVELOPMENT COMMAND. 184 00:09:07,513 --> 00:09:11,117 HE SERVED ON MANY IMPORTANT 185 00:09:11,183 --> 00:09:13,686 EDITORIAL BOARDS, SCIENTIFIC 186 00:09:13,753 --> 00:09:14,720 ADVISORY BOARDS, COUNCILS AND 187 00:09:14,787 --> 00:09:19,325 PANELS FOR THE GOVERNMENT, 188 00:09:19,392 --> 00:09:19,825 NONGOVERNMENT AGENCIES. 189 00:09:19,892 --> 00:09:22,428 HE HAS RECEIVED MANY AWARDS FOR 190 00:09:22,495 --> 00:09:22,962 THIS WORK. 191 00:09:23,029 --> 00:09:27,166 AND HE IS AN EXPERT IN 192 00:09:27,233 --> 00:09:30,803 ENVIRONMENTAL HEAT, COLD AND 193 00:09:30,870 --> 00:09:31,637 HIGH ALTITUDE PHYSIOLOGY AND 194 00:09:31,704 --> 00:09:33,005 MEANS TO COPE WITH IT. 195 00:09:33,072 --> 00:09:43,549 SO HE WILL TALK TO US ABOUT 196 00:09:44,784 --> 00:09:45,952 PHYSIOLOGICAL ADAPTATIONS, 197 00:09:46,018 --> 00:09:47,687 MALADAPTATIONS AND ENGINEERING 198 00:09:47,753 --> 00:09:49,355 INTERVENTIONS WITH EXTREME HOT 199 00:09:49,422 --> 00:09:49,588 WEATHER. 200 00:09:49,655 --> 00:09:54,393 SO WE WELCOME BOTH OF YOU TO THE 201 00:09:54,460 --> 00:09:57,096 NIH AND GABI, IF YOU WOULD 202 00:09:57,163 --> 00:09:57,830 PLEASE BEGIN? 203 00:09:57,897 --> 00:10:00,366 >> ALL RIGHT, WELL, THANK YOU, 204 00:10:00,433 --> 00:10:04,437 THANK YOU FOR HAVING ME HERE AND 205 00:10:04,503 --> 00:10:06,973 FOR COMING AND TUNING IN TO THIS 206 00:10:07,039 --> 00:10:08,941 PRESENTATION. 207 00:10:09,008 --> 00:10:10,409 I WILL TRY AND SET A LITTLE BIT 208 00:10:10,476 --> 00:10:14,914 OF THE STAGE FOR HOW IT IS THAT 209 00:10:14,981 --> 00:10:16,549 WE UNDERSTAND CLIMATE CHANGES, 210 00:10:16,615 --> 00:10:17,917 WHAT KIND OF CLIMATE CHANGES 211 00:10:17,984 --> 00:10:19,685 HAVE OCCURRED AND ARE LIKELY TO 212 00:10:19,752 --> 00:10:21,153 CHANGE IN THE FUTURE AND 213 00:10:21,220 --> 00:10:23,122 ESPECIALLY TO CONNECT TO THE 214 00:10:23,189 --> 00:10:25,424 NEXT TALK, A LITTLE BIT OF TIME 215 00:10:25,491 --> 00:10:29,295 TALKING ABOUT HEAT WAVES, 216 00:10:29,362 --> 00:10:29,729 EXTREME HEAT EVENTS. 217 00:10:29,795 --> 00:10:31,597 SO JUST FOCUS ON WHAT THE 218 00:10:31,664 --> 00:10:34,266 CLIMATE SYSTEM IS TELLING US. 219 00:10:34,333 --> 00:10:35,768 NOW, I WILL SAY, LIKE MANY 220 00:10:35,835 --> 00:10:37,636 PEOPLE, I GOT INTO THE FIELD 221 00:10:37,703 --> 00:10:41,974 TRYING TO UNDERSTAND THE CLIMATE 222 00:10:42,041 --> 00:10:45,277 AND ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES, NOT 223 00:10:45,344 --> 00:10:47,780 FOR FOCUS ON GLOBAL WARMING OR 224 00:10:47,847 --> 00:10:49,048 EXTREME EVENTS BUT BECAUSE I 225 00:10:49,115 --> 00:10:53,119 THOUGHT IT WAS BEAUTIFUL. 226 00:10:53,185 --> 00:10:55,488 AN OVERWHELMING EXERCISE TO TRY 227 00:10:55,554 --> 00:10:56,722 TO UNDERSTAND THE ENTIRE SYSTEM 228 00:10:56,789 --> 00:10:58,391 AND THAT IS WHY HERE ON THE 229 00:10:58,457 --> 00:11:02,261 SLIDE AT THE BEGINNING, I HAVE A 230 00:11:02,328 --> 00:11:05,398 VISUAL FROM SPACE OF A HURRICANE 231 00:11:05,464 --> 00:11:06,866 BUT IT IS BEAUTIFUL. 232 00:11:06,932 --> 00:11:08,868 AND TO START OUT WITH THE BOTTOM 233 00:11:08,934 --> 00:11:11,604 LINE UP TOP, ALL OF YOU ARE 234 00:11:11,670 --> 00:11:14,373 BUSY, THE GREEN HOUSE INCREASES 235 00:11:14,440 --> 00:11:16,842 IN CO2 IN THE ATMOSPHERE, THESE 236 00:11:16,909 --> 00:11:19,979 ARE DRIVEN BY BURNING FOSSIL 237 00:11:20,046 --> 00:11:21,547 FUELS HAVE WARMED THE PLANET AND 238 00:11:21,614 --> 00:11:23,949 WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR 239 00:11:24,016 --> 00:11:25,851 DECADES AND MAYBE CENTURIES TO 240 00:11:25,918 --> 00:11:26,152 COME, RIGHT? 241 00:11:26,218 --> 00:11:27,953 THERE IS A CERTAIN AMOUNT OF 242 00:11:28,020 --> 00:11:29,855 WARMING YOU ARE COMMITTED TO 243 00:11:29,922 --> 00:11:31,824 ALTHOUGH WE DO HAVE INFLUENCE 244 00:11:31,891 --> 00:11:33,159 BASED ON OUR DECISIONS EXACTLY 245 00:11:33,225 --> 00:11:34,660 HOW MUCH WE WILL GET. 246 00:11:34,727 --> 00:11:36,495 GLOBAL WARMING HAS NOT ONLY 247 00:11:36,562 --> 00:11:38,297 WARMED THE PLANET ON AVERAGE AND 248 00:11:38,364 --> 00:11:41,600 REGIONALLY BUT IT CHANGED THE 249 00:11:41,667 --> 00:11:44,637 ODDS OF CERTIFICATE OF EXTREME 250 00:11:44,703 --> 00:11:46,505 STATISTICS AND IS GIVING US 251 00:11:46,572 --> 00:11:47,239 REGIONAL IMPACTS. 252 00:11:47,306 --> 00:11:50,609 SOME OF THESE CHANGES ARE 253 00:11:50,676 --> 00:11:53,045 RELATIVELY WELL UNDERSTOOD AND 254 00:11:53,112 --> 00:11:54,146 PREDICTABLE GOING INTO THE 255 00:11:54,213 --> 00:11:54,580 FUTURE. 256 00:11:54,647 --> 00:11:57,283 SOME OF THEM ARE NOT, AND WE'RE 257 00:11:57,349 --> 00:11:58,284 WORKING TO UNDERSTAND THEM 258 00:11:58,350 --> 00:12:00,386 BETTER BUT I THINK WE WILL LIVE 259 00:12:00,453 --> 00:12:04,924 IN A WORLD OF SORT OF GROWING 260 00:12:04,990 --> 00:12:07,059 UNCERTAINTY ON REGIONAL AND 261 00:12:07,126 --> 00:12:07,460 EXTREME EVENTS. 262 00:12:07,526 --> 00:12:09,695 AND THE CHANGE IN ODDS IS NOT 263 00:12:09,762 --> 00:12:11,063 JUST SOMETHING FOR THE FUTURE 264 00:12:11,130 --> 00:12:12,465 BUT SOMETHING THAT IS ALREADY 265 00:12:12,531 --> 00:12:13,332 HAPPENING. 266 00:12:13,399 --> 00:12:17,403 WE SEE THE HEAT WAVES AND A FEW 267 00:12:17,470 --> 00:12:18,237 OTHER STATISTICS. 268 00:12:18,304 --> 00:12:21,207 AND THE IMPACTS OF THESE EXTREME 269 00:12:21,273 --> 00:12:22,308 CHANGES ARE REALLY SOMETHING 270 00:12:22,374 --> 00:12:25,244 THAT SET THE STAGE AND MOTIVATE 271 00:12:25,311 --> 00:12:26,879 A SERIES OF RESPONSES OF CLIMATE 272 00:12:26,946 --> 00:12:30,850 CHANGE THAT ARE AVAILABLE TO 273 00:12:30,916 --> 00:12:31,283 SOCIETY. 274 00:12:31,350 --> 00:12:32,251 THESE INCLUDE ADAPTATION, 275 00:12:32,318 --> 00:12:33,786 LEARNING TO LIVE IN A DIFFERENT 276 00:12:33,853 --> 00:12:36,088 CLIMATE FROM THE ONES THAT MAYBE 277 00:12:36,155 --> 00:12:38,991 WE WERE BORN INTO OR OUR PARENTS 278 00:12:39,058 --> 00:12:41,694 GREW UP IN. 279 00:12:41,760 --> 00:12:43,295 IT INVOLVES MITIGATION. 280 00:12:43,362 --> 00:12:45,064 THIS INVOLVES A ENERGY 281 00:12:45,131 --> 00:12:48,067 TRANSITION AND CHANGE IN LAND 282 00:12:48,134 --> 00:12:50,636 USE SO WE CHANGE THE GREENHOUSE 283 00:12:50,703 --> 00:12:54,006 GASES IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND THEN 284 00:12:54,073 --> 00:12:57,109 IDEAS ABOUT CARBON 285 00:12:57,176 --> 00:12:59,445 SEQUESTRATION, REMOVING CARBON 286 00:12:59,512 --> 00:13:02,281 FROM THE ATMOSPHERE, 287 00:13:02,348 --> 00:13:04,150 SEQUESTERING IT, ET CETERA, TO 288 00:13:04,216 --> 00:13:06,819 REVERSE SOME OF THE CLIMATE 289 00:13:06,886 --> 00:13:07,853 CHANGES. 290 00:13:07,920 --> 00:13:11,056 AND THESE I ALSO SAY ARE 291 00:13:11,123 --> 00:13:13,926 ALTERNATIVE STRATEGIES AND MUST 292 00:13:13,993 --> 00:13:17,096 BE WORKED THROUGH BUT IF YOU 293 00:13:17,163 --> 00:13:22,535 WANT TO MAKE CLIMATE CHANGE, YOU 294 00:13:22,601 --> 00:13:23,536 HAVE TO DO OTHER THINGS. 295 00:13:23,602 --> 00:13:26,772 LIKE IF YOU ARE A DOCTOR, YOU 296 00:13:26,839 --> 00:13:36,482 KNOW IF YOU TWIST AN ANKLE, YOU 297 00:13:36,549 --> 00:13:41,520 TAKE SOME IBUPROFEN, WRAP IT, 298 00:13:41,587 --> 00:13:44,957 AND SO IF WE'RE GOING TO CHANGE 299 00:13:45,024 --> 00:13:47,526 WEATHER, THERE ARE KEY ENERGY 300 00:13:47,593 --> 00:13:48,360 RESOURCES. 301 00:13:48,427 --> 00:13:50,829 WE HAVE CARBON SEQUESTERED 302 00:13:50,896 --> 00:13:52,631 MILLIONS OF YEARS AGO TO FUEL 303 00:13:52,698 --> 00:13:54,833 OUR EXPANSION AND GROWTH. 304 00:13:54,900 --> 00:13:57,570 AS WE COME INTO THE FUTURE, WE 305 00:13:57,636 --> 00:14:00,072 WILL GO BACK INTO TODAY'S 306 00:14:00,139 --> 00:14:02,208 WEATHER PATTERNS AND TODAY'S 307 00:14:02,274 --> 00:14:03,842 ENERGY AVAILABILITY. 308 00:14:03,909 --> 00:14:05,077 SO LET'S DEAL WITH SOMETHING 309 00:14:05,144 --> 00:14:05,678 VERY CONTROVERSIAL. 310 00:14:05,744 --> 00:14:08,447 ANYBODY WHO HAS LOOKED AT THIS 311 00:14:08,514 --> 00:14:10,149 AT ANY LEVEL, THE ATMOSPHERE HAS 312 00:14:10,216 --> 00:14:12,718 HAD A GROWTH IN ITS GREENHOUSE 313 00:14:12,785 --> 00:14:13,519 GASES. 314 00:14:13,586 --> 00:14:17,189 THERE ARE MOLECULES IN THE 315 00:14:17,256 --> 00:14:19,725 ATMOSPHERE, CARBON DIOXIDE, 316 00:14:19,792 --> 00:14:21,860 WATER VAPOR, METHANE, THESE ARE 317 00:14:21,927 --> 00:14:23,762 MOLECULES THAT HAVE MULTIPLE, 318 00:14:23,829 --> 00:14:27,533 MORE THAN TWO ATOMS IN THEM AND 319 00:14:27,600 --> 00:14:30,135 ARE VERY EFFICIENT IN ABSORBING 320 00:14:30,202 --> 00:14:33,806 THE LONG WAVES IN THE SPECTRUM. 321 00:14:33,872 --> 00:14:36,308 THE INFRA RED LIGHT WE FEEL AS 322 00:14:36,375 --> 00:14:38,510 HEAT. 323 00:14:38,577 --> 00:14:40,112 AS THE MOLECULE CONCENTRATIONS 324 00:14:40,179 --> 00:14:42,881 INCREASE IN THE ATMOSPHERE, OUR 325 00:14:42,948 --> 00:14:44,683 ABILITY TO RADIATE TO SPACE GETS 326 00:14:44,750 --> 00:14:46,185 LESS EFFICIENT AND THE 327 00:14:46,252 --> 00:14:48,487 CONSEQUENCE OF THAT IS THAT OUR 328 00:14:48,554 --> 00:14:50,456 PLANET WARMS SO THAT IN A WARMER 329 00:14:50,522 --> 00:14:53,525 SPACE, WE ARE EMITTING MORE 330 00:14:53,592 --> 00:14:59,031 ENERGY IN SPACE SO WE CAN COOL 331 00:14:59,098 --> 00:15:03,535 AND BALANCE THE NEXT AIR COMING 332 00:15:03,602 --> 00:15:04,737 IN WHICH MEANS ESSENTIALLY WE 333 00:15:04,803 --> 00:15:07,539 HAVE A GREEN HOUSE. 334 00:15:07,606 --> 00:15:08,941 HERE SHOWING 10,000 BEFORE THE 335 00:15:09,008 --> 00:15:13,045 COMMON AREA, SOME OF THESE DOTS 336 00:15:13,112 --> 00:15:15,381 ARE REINSTRUCTED USING AIR 337 00:15:15,447 --> 00:15:19,018 SAMPLES TRAPPED IN ICE. 338 00:15:19,084 --> 00:15:19,885 OTHERS ARE INSTRUMENTAL SAMPLES 339 00:15:19,952 --> 00:15:22,421 FROM THE AIR TAKEN IN. 340 00:15:22,488 --> 00:15:25,057 AND WHAT THEY HAVE PAID, A VERY 341 00:15:25,124 --> 00:15:28,761 CLEAR PICTURE OF CARBON DIOXIDE 342 00:15:28,827 --> 00:15:30,696 INCREASING IN THE ATMOSPHERE AS 343 00:15:30,763 --> 00:15:33,899 WE REBOUND FROM THE ICE AGES AND 344 00:15:33,966 --> 00:15:36,368 ALSO SOME CHANGES IN LAND USE 345 00:15:36,435 --> 00:15:39,505 BUT OVER THE LAST, SAY, 9000 346 00:15:39,571 --> 00:15:42,408 YEARS, THERE WASN'T MUCH CHANGE 347 00:15:42,474 --> 00:15:44,877 IN GREENHOUSE GAS IN THE 348 00:15:44,943 --> 00:15:48,013 ATMOSPHERE. 349 00:15:48,080 --> 00:15:51,583 AND THEN SINCE ABOUT 1900S, 350 00:15:51,650 --> 00:15:55,954 THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN 351 00:15:56,021 --> 00:15:56,488 GREENHOUSE GASES. 352 00:15:56,555 --> 00:15:58,924 IT IS CLEAR THIS HAS HAPPENED. 353 00:15:58,991 --> 00:16:08,167 AND WE KNOW BY LOOKING AT THE 354 00:16:08,233 --> 00:16:09,868 ISOTOPIC COMPOSITION IN THE AIR, 355 00:16:09,935 --> 00:16:13,605 IT HAS A SHARP INCREASE IN 356 00:16:13,672 --> 00:16:16,742 MINERALS IN ITS SIGNATURE IN 357 00:16:16,809 --> 00:16:24,883 TERMS OF RADIO ISOTOPES AND 358 00:16:24,950 --> 00:16:26,719 CARBONS FROM A LONG TIME AGO 359 00:16:26,785 --> 00:16:28,087 TAKEN INTO THE ATMOSPHERE. 360 00:16:28,153 --> 00:16:34,426 SO WE KNOW THERE IS BEEN THIS 361 00:16:34,493 --> 00:16:36,295 SHARP INCREASE IN GREENHOUSE 362 00:16:36,362 --> 00:16:39,198 GASES AND CO AND THEY ARE 363 00:16:39,264 --> 00:16:41,500 MINERAL SOURCED. 364 00:16:41,567 --> 00:16:45,637 CARBON DIOXIDE HAS A LIFETIME OF 365 00:16:45,704 --> 00:16:47,072 MILLIONS OF YEARS IN THE 366 00:16:47,139 --> 00:16:48,374 ATMOSPHERE AND DEPENDS ON WHAT 367 00:16:48,440 --> 00:16:50,275 WE WILL ADD TO THAT AND 368 00:16:50,342 --> 00:16:51,810 EMISSIONS IN THE FUTURE. 369 00:16:51,877 --> 00:16:54,646 SO WE ALREADY OWN ESSENTIALLY 370 00:16:54,713 --> 00:16:56,515 THAT LEVEL OF GREENHOUSE GAS 371 00:16:56,582 --> 00:16:56,982 CONCENTRATIONS. 372 00:16:57,049 --> 00:17:02,287 NOW, WE HAVE PURCHASED ON HOW 373 00:17:02,354 --> 00:17:05,424 MUCH MORE RAPIDLY IT WILL 374 00:17:05,491 --> 00:17:06,959 INCREASE GOING FORWARD AND WHERE 375 00:17:07,025 --> 00:17:09,795 WE CAN STABILIZE AND BRING IT 376 00:17:09,862 --> 00:17:10,763 BACK DOWN. 377 00:17:10,829 --> 00:17:11,563 ANOTHER CONTROVERSIAL 378 00:17:11,630 --> 00:17:13,465 STATEMENT -- THE PLANET HAS BEEN 379 00:17:13,532 --> 00:17:13,899 WARMING. 380 00:17:13,966 --> 00:17:14,366 RIGHT? 381 00:17:14,433 --> 00:17:16,735 THERE ARE MULTIPLE WAYS WE CAN 382 00:17:16,802 --> 00:17:18,036 SEE THIS, SHOWN HERE ON THIS 383 00:17:18,103 --> 00:17:20,806 PLOT ONE OF THE CLASSIC WAYS OF 384 00:17:20,873 --> 00:17:22,374 MEASURING WARMTH OF OUR PLANET, 385 00:17:22,441 --> 00:17:24,410 AND IT SHOWS THE TEMPERATURE OF 386 00:17:24,476 --> 00:17:26,478 THE SURFACE OF THE EARTH GOING 387 00:17:26,545 --> 00:17:30,315 BACK TO THE MID-19TH CENTURY 388 00:17:30,382 --> 00:17:31,483 WHERE POSITIVE VALUES INDICATE 389 00:17:31,550 --> 00:17:34,820 THE LINE MOVING UP FROM THE 390 00:17:34,887 --> 00:17:37,923 1850s TO 2020 SHOWS THE PLANET 391 00:17:37,990 --> 00:17:38,290 GETTING WARMER. 392 00:17:38,357 --> 00:17:40,793 THERE HAS BEEN A STEADY WARMING 393 00:17:40,859 --> 00:17:42,961 OF THE PLANET ALTHOUGH YEAR ON 394 00:17:43,028 --> 00:17:44,196 YEAR, YOU CAN SEE THE 395 00:17:44,263 --> 00:17:46,398 TEMPERATURE GOING UP AND GOING 396 00:17:46,465 --> 00:17:46,598 DOWN. 397 00:17:46,665 --> 00:17:50,335 SO IT IS NOT LIKE EVERY YEAR IT 398 00:17:50,402 --> 00:17:51,603 WARMS FROM THE PREVIOUS YEAR BUT 399 00:17:51,670 --> 00:17:54,006 THAT THERE IS A GENERAL 400 00:17:54,072 --> 00:17:55,574 TRANSPORT OF WARMING. 401 00:17:55,641 --> 00:18:00,245 THOSE YEAR OVER YEAR SWINGS ARE 402 00:18:00,312 --> 00:18:02,881 LARGELY KNOWN OR TRANSPORTED BY 403 00:18:02,948 --> 00:18:03,515 EL NINO. 404 00:18:03,582 --> 00:18:07,553 WE'RE CURRENTLY AT THE END OF A 405 00:18:07,619 --> 00:18:09,688 EL NINO YEAR, YOU MAY HAVE 406 00:18:09,755 --> 00:18:11,723 NOTICED THAT IN THE NEWS, AND 407 00:18:11,790 --> 00:18:13,158 2023 WAS THE WARMEST BECAUSE NOT 408 00:18:13,225 --> 00:18:16,161 ONLY DID WE HAVE THE LONGEST 409 00:18:16,228 --> 00:18:18,997 RANGE OF WARMING BUT EL NINO 410 00:18:19,064 --> 00:18:21,800 HAPPENING AT THE SAME TIME. 411 00:18:21,867 --> 00:18:23,869 SO GLOBAL WARMING DOESN'T MEAN A 412 00:18:23,936 --> 00:18:25,370 CESSATION OF WEATHER AND 413 00:18:25,437 --> 00:18:28,674 VARIABILITY, IT IS BECAUSE OF 414 00:18:28,740 --> 00:18:29,842 THE VARIABILITY AND WEATHER WE 415 00:18:29,908 --> 00:18:31,977 WILL HAVE THIS WARMING GOING ON. 416 00:18:32,044 --> 00:18:34,580 WE KNOW A LARGE PART OF WARMING 417 00:18:34,646 --> 00:18:36,715 OF THE PLANET HAS BEEN AN 418 00:18:36,782 --> 00:18:38,851 INCREASE IN GREENHOUSE GASES. 419 00:18:38,917 --> 00:18:42,354 SO THE CLIMATE MODEL WE USE TO 420 00:18:42,421 --> 00:18:44,957 FORECAST EL NINO ARE ABLE TO 421 00:18:45,023 --> 00:18:45,224 RECOVER. 422 00:18:45,290 --> 00:18:46,592 THE WARMING OVER THE 20TH 423 00:18:46,658 --> 00:18:50,829 CENTURY, WHAT WE KNOW ABOUT THE 424 00:18:50,896 --> 00:18:52,264 INCREASING GREENHOUSE GASSES, WE 425 00:18:52,331 --> 00:18:56,602 ARE UNABLE TO DO SO UNTIL WE 426 00:18:56,668 --> 00:18:59,104 LOWER THE GREENHOUSE GASSES. 427 00:18:59,171 --> 00:19:02,107 SO FROM A MECHANISTIC POINT OF 428 00:19:02,174 --> 00:19:04,543 VIEW, WE TRACE THE GREEN HOUSE 429 00:19:04,610 --> 00:19:07,346 GASSES AND FUTURE WARMING WILL 430 00:19:07,412 --> 00:19:10,415 DEPEND ON PAST AND FUTURE 431 00:19:10,482 --> 00:19:11,550 GREENHOUSE EMISSIONS. 432 00:19:11,617 --> 00:19:14,453 THERE IS WARMING ON THE PAST 433 00:19:14,520 --> 00:19:15,554 GREENHOUSE EMISSIONS WE HAVE 434 00:19:15,621 --> 00:19:18,891 ALREADY MADE AND THEN THERE IS 435 00:19:18,957 --> 00:19:21,026 THE FUTURE WARMING ON FUTURE 436 00:19:21,093 --> 00:19:21,493 EMISSIONS. 437 00:19:21,560 --> 00:19:24,263 SO THERE IS WARMING AND THEN THE 438 00:19:24,329 --> 00:19:27,165 DECISIONS WE MAKE CAN CHANGE THE 439 00:19:27,232 --> 00:19:28,534 AMOUNT OF WARMING WE HAVE GOING 440 00:19:28,600 --> 00:19:28,767 FORWARD. 441 00:19:28,834 --> 00:19:31,103 OH, HOW DO WE GO BACK? 442 00:19:31,169 --> 00:19:31,770 THERE WE GO. 443 00:19:31,837 --> 00:19:34,873 OKAY, SO ONE OF THE THINGS WE'RE 444 00:19:34,940 --> 00:19:38,877 VERY PROUD OF IN PRINCETON AND 445 00:19:38,944 --> 00:19:43,015 THE NOAA LAB I USED TO BE AT WAS 446 00:19:43,081 --> 00:19:45,284 WE WERE AT THE BIRTH PLACE OF 447 00:19:45,350 --> 00:19:45,984 THE CLIMATE MODEL. 448 00:19:46,051 --> 00:19:48,854 THIS IS A TOOL THAT ALLOWS US TO 449 00:19:48,921 --> 00:19:50,556 UNDERSTAND THE CLIMATE SYSTEM. 450 00:19:50,622 --> 00:19:51,823 IT IS A MATHEMATICAL 451 00:19:51,890 --> 00:19:55,260 REPRESENTATION OF THE LAWS 452 00:19:55,327 --> 00:19:56,428 GOVERNING THE ATMOSPHERE, OCEAN, 453 00:19:56,495 --> 00:19:58,931 LAND AND SEA ICE AND A TOOL THAT 454 00:19:58,997 --> 00:20:01,567 ALLOWS US TO BOTH UNDERSTAND THE 455 00:20:01,633 --> 00:20:02,000 EARTH SYSTEM. 456 00:20:02,067 --> 00:20:05,637 IT IS SORT OF A MODEL SYSTEM, 457 00:20:05,704 --> 00:20:08,373 SOMETIMES LIKE IN RESEARCH YOU 458 00:20:08,440 --> 00:20:10,309 WILL -- YOU USE FRUIT FLIES IN 459 00:20:10,375 --> 00:20:12,344 THE MODEL SYSTEM OR THERE ARE 460 00:20:12,411 --> 00:20:13,845 THESE MODEL SOMETIMES THAT 461 00:20:13,912 --> 00:20:17,149 REALLY CAPTURE THE ESSENCE OF A 462 00:20:17,215 --> 00:20:19,084 MORE COMPLEX SYSTEM, THAT'S WHAT 463 00:20:19,151 --> 00:20:24,957 A CLIMATE MODEL IS. 464 00:20:25,023 --> 00:20:27,159 AND IN PARTICULAR, THE 465 00:20:27,225 --> 00:20:29,828 INDIVIDUAL PICTURED HERE WITH 466 00:20:29,895 --> 00:20:31,730 HIS STUDENTS ON THE DAY THE 467 00:20:31,797 --> 00:20:35,400 NOBEL PRIZE IN PHYSICS WAS ONE, 468 00:20:35,467 --> 00:20:37,436 2021, THERE WAS THE MODEL AND 469 00:20:37,502 --> 00:20:39,771 NOW A TOOL TO MAKE PREDICTIONS. 470 00:20:39,838 --> 00:20:41,974 ONE OF THE PREDICTIONS THAT CAME 471 00:20:42,040 --> 00:20:44,276 OUT OF THAT IS SHOWN HERE FROM 472 00:20:44,343 --> 00:20:47,746 TWO PAPERS, ONE IN 1980, ANOTHER 473 00:20:47,813 --> 00:20:49,615 IN 1981 WHICH SHOWS THE AMOUNT 474 00:20:49,681 --> 00:20:51,416 OF WARMING YOU PREDICT IN 475 00:20:51,483 --> 00:20:52,851 DIFFERENT PARTS OF THE PLANET IN 476 00:20:52,918 --> 00:20:55,320 RESPONSE TO A DOUBLING OF 477 00:20:55,387 --> 00:21:01,326 GREENHOUSE PASS GEORGIA OR CO2 478 00:21:01,393 --> 00:21:01,727 IN THE ATMOSPHERE. 479 00:21:01,793 --> 00:21:03,595 AND THIS IS A PREDICTION WHICH 480 00:21:03,662 --> 00:21:06,031 HAS NOT BEEN SEEN IN THE DATA 481 00:21:06,098 --> 00:21:07,766 YET, IS THAT THE OVERALL WARMING 482 00:21:07,833 --> 00:21:10,569 OF THE PLANET SHOULD BE MOST 483 00:21:10,636 --> 00:21:11,903 PRONOUNCED IN NORTHERN HIGH 484 00:21:11,970 --> 00:21:14,206 LATITUDES AND OVER LAND. 485 00:21:14,272 --> 00:21:17,209 THAT IS A PHENOMENON KNOWN AS 486 00:21:17,275 --> 00:21:18,343 POLAR AMPLIFICATION. 487 00:21:18,410 --> 00:21:21,013 THE REASONS FOR IT ARE DUE TO 488 00:21:21,079 --> 00:21:24,549 THE FACT THE LAND HAS A LIMITED 489 00:21:24,616 --> 00:21:26,752 CAPACITY TO EVAPORATE SO THEY 490 00:21:26,818 --> 00:21:28,220 WARM UP VERY RAPIDLY AND ALSO 491 00:21:28,286 --> 00:21:30,822 YOU HAVE ICE AND SNOW ON IT 492 00:21:30,889 --> 00:21:32,090 WHICH LEADS TO CONCENTRATED 493 00:21:32,157 --> 00:21:33,125 WARMING. 494 00:21:33,191 --> 00:21:33,659 THIS IS A PREDICTION. 495 00:21:33,725 --> 00:21:36,862 THIS IS THE OBSERVED PATTERN OF 496 00:21:36,928 --> 00:21:39,564 TEMPERATURE CHANGE FROM 2016 TO 497 00:21:39,631 --> 00:21:40,332 2020. 498 00:21:40,399 --> 00:21:42,334 CLASSIC SIGNS. 499 00:21:42,401 --> 00:21:44,302 YOU HAVE MECHANISMS, YOU THINK 500 00:21:44,369 --> 00:21:47,072 YOU UNDERSTAND IT, YOU MAKE A 501 00:21:47,139 --> 00:21:49,608 PREDICTION AND LOOK AT THE DATA 502 00:21:49,675 --> 00:21:50,275 AND COMPARE THAT. 503 00:21:50,342 --> 00:21:52,344 SO IT IS NOT JUST THE SIGN OF 504 00:21:52,411 --> 00:21:54,079 THE TEMPERATURE CHANGE WHICH IS 505 00:21:54,146 --> 00:21:56,148 EITHER POSITIVE OR NEGATIVE, IT 506 00:21:56,214 --> 00:21:58,550 IS A VERY LOW DIMENSION THING TO 507 00:21:58,617 --> 00:22:01,253 GET RIGHT BUT THE STRUCTURE OF 508 00:22:01,319 --> 00:22:02,654 WARMING OUR CLIMATE MODELS HAVE 509 00:22:02,721 --> 00:22:03,989 GOT TEN RIGHT. 510 00:22:04,056 --> 00:22:06,291 THIS IS JUST ONE COMPARISON BUT 511 00:22:06,358 --> 00:22:08,060 THERE ARE MANY OTHERS PEOPLE 512 00:22:08,126 --> 00:22:11,329 HAVE DONE LOOKING AT RAINFALL 513 00:22:11,396 --> 00:22:12,230 CHANGE, CIRCULATION OF OCEAN 514 00:22:12,297 --> 00:22:15,500 CHANGES, ALL OF WHICH GIVE US 515 00:22:15,567 --> 00:22:16,435 CONFIDENCE THAT WE UNDERSTAND 516 00:22:16,501 --> 00:22:20,238 MANY OF THE KEY ASPECTS OF THE 517 00:22:20,305 --> 00:22:23,442 RESPONSE TO INCREASING CLIMATE 518 00:22:23,508 --> 00:22:24,142 GREENHOUSE GAS. 519 00:22:24,209 --> 00:22:26,278 SO I HAVE SPENT HOURS AND HEARS 520 00:22:26,344 --> 00:22:28,814 AND IN FACT WE HAVE MANY CLASSES 521 00:22:28,880 --> 00:22:32,150 THAT GO THROUGH ALL THAT AND IT 522 00:22:32,217 --> 00:22:33,385 IS BEAUTIFUL TO UNDERSTAND. 523 00:22:33,452 --> 00:22:35,954 ONE OF THE KEY EXTREMES IN 524 00:22:36,021 --> 00:22:37,656 CLIMATE ARE HEAT WAVES. 525 00:22:37,723 --> 00:22:39,691 THESE ARE PERIODS OF EXTENDED 526 00:22:39,758 --> 00:22:42,694 EXTREME TEMPERATURE. 527 00:22:42,761 --> 00:22:44,696 WHAT EXTREME MEANS IS, PEOPLE 528 00:22:44,763 --> 00:22:46,932 WILL FIND OUT IN THE NEXT 529 00:22:46,998 --> 00:22:48,934 SESSION IN PARTICULAR, A VERY 530 00:22:49,000 --> 00:22:51,002 TRICKY ISSUE TO DEFINE. 531 00:22:51,069 --> 00:22:54,773 BUT HERE ARE THREE RECENT HEAT 532 00:22:54,840 --> 00:22:57,509 WAVES ALL OF WHICH WERE QUITE 533 00:22:57,576 --> 00:22:58,410 DEADLY. 534 00:22:58,477 --> 00:23:01,279 OVER HERE WAS THE 1995 HEAT WAVE 535 00:23:01,346 --> 00:23:03,749 IN CHICAGO THAT KILLED IN EXCESS 536 00:23:03,815 --> 00:23:05,083 OF 700 PEOPLE. 537 00:23:05,150 --> 00:23:07,652 THEN THE WESTERN EUROPE HEAT 538 00:23:07,719 --> 00:23:10,589 WAVE OF 2003 KILLED OVER 70,000 539 00:23:10,655 --> 00:23:11,223 PEOPLE, RIGHT? 540 00:23:11,289 --> 00:23:16,328 AND THIS IS AN INCREDIBLY DEADLY 541 00:23:16,394 --> 00:23:17,963 DISASTER AND IN PART IT WAS A 542 00:23:18,029 --> 00:23:20,031 HEAT WAVE THAT STRUCK A PLACE 543 00:23:20,098 --> 00:23:26,505 THAT WASN'T USED TO THESE HEAT 544 00:23:26,571 --> 00:23:27,239 EXTREMES. 545 00:23:27,305 --> 00:23:29,674 THERE WAS NOT WIDE VARIETY OF 546 00:23:29,741 --> 00:23:33,845 AIR CONDITIONING AND SUCH SO 547 00:23:33,912 --> 00:23:35,614 THEY WERE SURPRISED WITH 548 00:23:35,680 --> 00:23:37,682 NEGATIVE CONSEQUENCES AND THEN 549 00:23:37,749 --> 00:23:40,185 IN RUSSIA, SIMILARLY, A HEAT 550 00:23:40,252 --> 00:23:42,621 WAVE WHERE 50,000 PEOPLE DIED. 551 00:23:42,687 --> 00:23:44,756 NOW, THERE IS EVIDENCE THAT 552 00:23:44,823 --> 00:23:46,558 PEOPLE ARE ADAPTING. 553 00:23:46,625 --> 00:23:49,795 A MORE RECENT HEAT WAVE IN 554 00:23:49,861 --> 00:23:54,132 WESTERN EUROPE WHERE FATALITIES 555 00:23:54,199 --> 00:23:57,936 WERE LESS WAS PARTLY BECAUSE 556 00:23:58,003 --> 00:23:59,671 THEY HAVE MADE CHANGES IN 557 00:23:59,738 --> 00:24:01,039 RESPONDING TO THE HEAT WAVES SO 558 00:24:01,106 --> 00:24:04,042 THERE IS SOME LIMIT TO ADAPT BUT 559 00:24:04,109 --> 00:24:07,779 I AM CURIOUS AND AS WE WILL GET 560 00:24:07,846 --> 00:24:11,349 TO, WHAT ARE THE LIMITS OF 561 00:24:11,416 --> 00:24:13,518 ADAPTABILITY? 562 00:24:13,585 --> 00:24:15,020 NOW, WEATHER EVENTS HAPPENING 563 00:24:15,086 --> 00:24:17,289 OVER A LONG PERIOD OF TIME, 564 00:24:17,355 --> 00:24:18,924 LARGELY DRIVEN OVER A PROCESS 565 00:24:18,990 --> 00:24:22,794 THAT IS VIEWED AS RANDOM, 566 00:24:22,861 --> 00:24:26,464 ATMOSPHERES IN THE OCEAN AND 567 00:24:26,531 --> 00:24:27,132 ATMOSPHERE THAT ARE 568 00:24:27,199 --> 00:24:29,100 UNPREDICTABLE IN A MATTER OF 569 00:24:29,167 --> 00:24:32,070 DAYS AND ONE OF THE WEATHER 570 00:24:32,137 --> 00:24:35,874 PHENOMENONS THAT IS KNOWN FOR A 571 00:24:35,941 --> 00:24:39,211 HEAT EVENT IS BLOCKING AREAS OF 572 00:24:39,277 --> 00:24:42,013 HIGH WHERE THE HIGH PRESSURE 573 00:24:42,080 --> 00:24:44,850 WILL SET UP STAGES ARY OVER 574 00:24:44,916 --> 00:24:48,253 LAND, ASSOCIATED WITH DRY AIR SO 575 00:24:48,320 --> 00:24:53,325 SUNLIGHT CAN COME IN, THE AIR 576 00:24:53,391 --> 00:24:55,427 WARMS AND THEN FEEDBACK MAKES 577 00:24:55,493 --> 00:24:57,162 THINGS STAGNATE AND IT WILL 578 00:24:57,229 --> 00:24:59,331 BECOME WARMER AND WARMER SO IT 579 00:24:59,397 --> 00:25:02,267 WILL BE STICKY THERE A FEW DAYS 580 00:25:02,334 --> 00:25:05,270 AND HAVE AN IMPACT. 581 00:25:05,337 --> 00:25:08,173 OUR UNDERSTANDING IS THAT HEAT 582 00:25:08,240 --> 00:25:10,642 EVENTS WITH SPECIFIC BLOCKING 583 00:25:10,709 --> 00:25:17,649 HIGHS ARE THE BEST UNDERSTOOD 584 00:25:17,716 --> 00:25:19,017 RANDOMLY-OCCURRING ISSUE BUT WE 585 00:25:19,084 --> 00:25:20,986 THINK THE INCREASING ODDS OF 586 00:25:21,052 --> 00:25:22,587 HEAT WAVES DUE TO CLIMATE CHANGE 587 00:25:22,654 --> 00:25:25,023 IS GOING TO BE EVIDENCE IN THE 588 00:25:25,090 --> 00:25:33,932 NUMBER OF HEAT WAVEEVENTS BUT 589 00:25:33,999 --> 00:25:35,967 CAN'T TELL YOU WHICH YEAR OR DAY 590 00:25:36,034 --> 00:25:37,936 IT WILL GO FORWARD. 591 00:25:38,003 --> 00:25:41,172 SO IN RUSSIA, YOU HAVE THIS 592 00:25:41,239 --> 00:25:42,274 CLASSIC BLOCKING HIGH PATTERN. 593 00:25:42,340 --> 00:25:45,410 YOU SEE IT HERE ON THE 594 00:25:45,477 --> 00:25:46,978 MID-ATMOSPHERIC HIGH PRESSURE. 595 00:25:47,045 --> 00:25:49,481 THE RED BLOB THERE TELLING YOU 596 00:25:49,547 --> 00:25:52,417 THE MIDDLE OF THE ATMOSPHERE 597 00:25:52,484 --> 00:25:57,722 WEIGHS ABOUT 1000 MILLIBARS, YOU 598 00:25:57,789 --> 00:25:59,324 HAVE MORE HIGH PRESSURE, HIGHER 599 00:25:59,391 --> 00:26:01,159 THAN USUAL AND BELOW THE 600 00:26:01,226 --> 00:26:03,428 MICHIGAN SYSTEM, YOU SEE THIS 601 00:26:03,495 --> 00:26:06,264 VERY LARGE SURFACE TEMPERATURE 602 00:26:06,331 --> 00:26:09,901 ANOMALY, 6 DEGREES CELSIUS AND 603 00:26:09,968 --> 00:26:11,436 HIGHER WHICH IS 10 DEGREES 604 00:26:11,503 --> 00:26:12,771 FAHRENHEIT OR MORE, RIGHT? 605 00:26:12,837 --> 00:26:15,206 SO FOR A NUMBER OF DAYS THE 606 00:26:15,273 --> 00:26:17,742 TEMPERATURE IN THE SUMMER WAS 607 00:26:17,809 --> 00:26:19,744 MORE THAN 10 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT 608 00:26:19,811 --> 00:26:21,813 HIGHER THAN IT TYPICALLY IS. 609 00:26:21,880 --> 00:26:24,582 SO THAT GIVES YOU A BIG EFFECT. 610 00:26:24,649 --> 00:26:26,618 NOW, THERE ARE ALSO FACTORS THAT 611 00:26:26,685 --> 00:26:31,890 MAKE THE URBAN ENVIRONMENT FEEL 612 00:26:31,957 --> 00:26:34,159 A HEAT WAVE DIFFERENTLY THAN THE 613 00:26:34,225 --> 00:26:36,294 SURROUNDING WORLD ENVIRONMENT, 614 00:26:36,361 --> 00:26:36,795 RIGHT? 615 00:26:36,861 --> 00:26:45,070 AND IN PARTICULAR WE HAVE 616 00:26:45,136 --> 00:26:47,806 IMPERVIOUS SURFACES, WE HAVE 617 00:26:47,872 --> 00:26:55,013 DARK SURFACES AND SO ARE ABLE TO 618 00:26:55,080 --> 00:26:59,317 ABSORB MORE OF THE WATER ON LAND 619 00:26:59,384 --> 00:27:00,752 AND DRY ITSELF. 620 00:27:00,819 --> 00:27:05,423 OCEANS HAVE AN INFINITE ABILITY 621 00:27:05,490 --> 00:27:08,460 TO SWEAT, LAND DOES NOT SO WE 622 00:27:08,526 --> 00:27:12,197 PUT ON A WARM SWEATER, RIGHT? 623 00:27:12,263 --> 00:27:13,898 WE ALSO HAVE DARK SURFACES. 624 00:27:13,965 --> 00:27:19,004 TYPICALLY THEY ARE DARKER AND 625 00:27:19,070 --> 00:27:22,774 VISIBLE, ABSORB MORE LIGHT FROM 626 00:27:22,841 --> 00:27:25,844 THE SUN THAN THE SURROUNDING 627 00:27:25,910 --> 00:27:28,146 NATURAL ENVIRONMENT AND ALSO 628 00:27:28,213 --> 00:27:29,147 BLOCK THE CIRCULATION OF AIR 629 00:27:29,214 --> 00:27:32,450 THAT CAN HELP COOL THINGS OFF. 630 00:27:32,517 --> 00:27:35,920 AND THEN ONE OF THE RESPONSES TO 631 00:27:35,987 --> 00:27:37,322 WARMING IS TO RUN AIR 632 00:27:37,389 --> 00:27:38,757 CONDITIONING. 633 00:27:38,823 --> 00:27:39,758 NOW, AIR CONDITIONING DOESN'T 634 00:27:39,824 --> 00:27:42,560 CREATE COLD OUT OF NOTHING, 635 00:27:42,627 --> 00:27:42,761 RIGHT? 636 00:27:42,827 --> 00:27:48,266 SO THE FIRST AND SECOND LAW OF 637 00:27:48,333 --> 00:27:49,601 TH*ERPLODYNAMICS, THERE IS A NET 638 00:27:49,667 --> 00:27:51,970 HEATING OF THE ENVIRONMENT WHEN 639 00:27:52,037 --> 00:27:54,039 YOU RUN A AIR CONDITIONER. 640 00:27:54,105 --> 00:27:56,908 AS THE OVERALL TEMPERATURE 641 00:27:56,975 --> 00:27:57,642 INCREASES, THE TEMPERATURE WILL 642 00:27:57,709 --> 00:27:59,944 GO DOWN SO ALL OF THESE FACTORS 643 00:28:00,011 --> 00:28:03,181 MAKE IT SO HEAT WAVES ARE MORE 644 00:28:03,248 --> 00:28:05,116 PRONOUNCED IN URBAN AREAS. 645 00:28:05,183 --> 00:28:08,219 THIS IS ALL ON THE WEATHER AND 646 00:28:08,286 --> 00:28:09,587 LOCAL FACTORS SURROUNDING HEAT 647 00:28:09,654 --> 00:28:11,589 WAVES BUT YOU CAN THINK OF HEAT 648 00:28:11,656 --> 00:28:14,259 WAVES AS THE EVENT LYING ON THE 649 00:28:14,325 --> 00:28:16,528 FAR OUTER TAIL OF DISTRIBUTION 650 00:28:16,594 --> 00:28:18,329 OF TEMPERATURES ON LAND -- YOU 651 00:28:18,396 --> 00:28:21,499 CAN SORT OF SEE THAT CARTOON 652 00:28:21,566 --> 00:28:24,702 THERE -- NOT A CARTOON, THAT IS 653 00:28:24,769 --> 00:28:27,405 ACTUAL REAL DATA IN TEMPERATURE 654 00:28:27,472 --> 00:28:29,574 DEVIATION ALL AROUND THE WORLD 655 00:28:29,641 --> 00:28:31,009 FROM AFFECTED VALUE AND YOU GET 656 00:28:31,076 --> 00:28:35,880 THIS CLASSIC BELL SHAPED CURVE. 657 00:28:35,947 --> 00:28:40,752 THE HEAT WAVE EVENT IS FARTHERON 658 00:28:40,819 --> 00:28:41,786 THE RIGHT. 659 00:28:41,853 --> 00:28:44,556 WHEN YOU WARM THE PLANET OVER 660 00:28:44,622 --> 00:28:46,724 THE LAST SEVERAL DECADES, THE 661 00:28:46,791 --> 00:28:48,460 DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE BLUE AND 662 00:28:48,526 --> 00:28:50,995 THE RED, WE SHIFTED TEMPERATURE 663 00:28:51,062 --> 00:28:54,332 BY MAYBE A DEGREE OR SO WHICH 664 00:28:54,399 --> 00:28:57,168 NONE OF US WOULD RECOGNIZE A 665 00:28:57,235 --> 00:28:58,970 DEGREE SHIFT, WELL, MAYBE THE 666 00:28:59,037 --> 00:29:00,371 MOST SENSITIVE ONES MIGHT. 667 00:29:00,438 --> 00:29:03,274 BUT WHAT WE HAVE DONE IS 668 00:29:03,341 --> 00:29:05,143 INCREASE THE PROBABILITY OF THE 669 00:29:05,210 --> 00:29:06,678 MORE EXTREME EVENTS. 670 00:29:06,744 --> 00:29:10,748 BECAUSE WHEN YOU SHIFT NORMAL 671 00:29:10,815 --> 00:29:12,550 DISTRIBUTION, YOU END UP 672 00:29:12,617 --> 00:29:14,853 SHIFTING THE TAIL FROM WHAT 673 00:29:14,919 --> 00:29:16,788 WOULD HAVE BEEN OBVIOUS THINKING 674 00:29:16,855 --> 00:29:21,459 ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF THE CHANGE. 675 00:29:21,526 --> 00:29:22,927 RIGHT? 676 00:29:22,994 --> 00:29:24,162 SO ANOTHER CONSEQUENCE, WHEN YOU 677 00:29:24,229 --> 00:29:26,698 WARM THE AIR, AIR CAN HOLD MORE 678 00:29:26,764 --> 00:29:27,031 MOISTURE. 679 00:29:27,098 --> 00:29:29,267 YOU SEE EVIDENCE OF THIS IF YOU 680 00:29:29,334 --> 00:29:32,537 EVER SORT OF GO OUTSIDE IN THE 681 00:29:32,604 --> 00:29:33,104 SUMMER. 682 00:29:33,171 --> 00:29:35,240 HERE IN MARYLAND, YOU WILL DO IT 683 00:29:35,306 --> 00:29:37,008 WITH A COLD DRINK AND YOU CAN 684 00:29:37,075 --> 00:29:39,811 SEE THE WATER WILL FROST THE 685 00:29:39,878 --> 00:29:40,778 OUTSIDE OF YOUR DRINK. 686 00:29:40,845 --> 00:29:43,047 THAT IS EVIDENCE OF HIGH 687 00:29:43,114 --> 00:29:44,549 MOISTURE AND WARM AIR COMING 688 00:29:44,616 --> 00:29:47,418 INTO CONTACT WITH YOUR COLD 689 00:29:47,485 --> 00:29:50,355 SURFACE AND LOSING ITS ABILITY 690 00:29:50,421 --> 00:29:52,657 TO HOLD WATER AS COLD AIR GOES 691 00:29:52,724 --> 00:29:53,091 DOWN. 692 00:29:53,158 --> 00:29:55,360 AS WE WARM THE ATMOSPHERE, WE 693 00:29:55,426 --> 00:29:58,096 MAKE IT MORE ABLE TO HOLD WATER. 694 00:29:58,163 --> 00:29:59,497 THAT DOES TWO THINGS. 695 00:29:59,564 --> 00:30:02,267 NUMBER ONE, IT INCREASES THE 696 00:30:02,333 --> 00:30:05,003 INTENSITY OF THE MOST RAINY 697 00:30:05,069 --> 00:30:07,205 EVENTS BECAUSE WHEN THE AIR 698 00:30:07,272 --> 00:30:08,673 COMES TOGETHER, IT IS MORE 699 00:30:08,740 --> 00:30:11,009 MOIST, CAN DROP MORE WATER. 700 00:30:11,075 --> 00:30:13,278 THE OTHER THING IS THAT AIR IS 701 00:30:13,344 --> 00:30:15,346 MORE EFFECTIVE WHEN IT IS 702 00:30:15,413 --> 00:30:16,181 WARMER. 703 00:30:16,247 --> 00:30:18,516 SO MOVING AIR FROM DRY PLACES TO 704 00:30:18,583 --> 00:30:19,150 WET PLACES. 705 00:30:19,217 --> 00:30:22,754 SO WHAT THAT MEANS IS THAT DRY 706 00:30:22,820 --> 00:30:28,026 PLACES AND DRY TIMES BECOME 707 00:30:28,092 --> 00:30:29,761 DRYER, RIGHT? 708 00:30:29,827 --> 00:30:32,297 SO A COUNTERINTUITIVE EFFECT OF 709 00:30:32,363 --> 00:30:35,066 THE WARM MOIST ATMOSPHERE IS 710 00:30:35,133 --> 00:30:36,334 THAT DROUGHT ALSO INCREASES AND 711 00:30:36,401 --> 00:30:38,469 THIS IS THE PHENOMENON THAT IS 712 00:30:38,536 --> 00:30:41,406 DESCRIBED AS THE WET GET WETTER, 713 00:30:41,472 --> 00:30:44,943 THE DRY GET DRIER, A VERY ROBUST 714 00:30:45,009 --> 00:30:45,677 RESPONSE TO WARMING. 715 00:30:45,743 --> 00:30:49,881 SO HERE YOU SEE THE CHANGE IN 716 00:30:49,948 --> 00:30:50,949 CONSECUTIVE DRY DAYS AND MANY 717 00:30:51,015 --> 00:30:53,318 AREAS IN THE WORLD ARE EXPECTED 718 00:30:53,384 --> 00:30:55,553 TO HAVE BIG INCREASES IN DRYING. 719 00:30:55,620 --> 00:30:58,690 DRY TIMES TEND TO BE WARM TIMES, 720 00:30:58,756 --> 00:30:58,890 OKAY? 721 00:30:58,957 --> 00:31:00,491 NOW, IT IS NOT JUST FOR THE 722 00:31:00,558 --> 00:31:03,561 FUTURE THAT WE EXPECT THESE 723 00:31:03,628 --> 00:31:05,697 THINGS WITH HEAT DISTRIBUTION. 724 00:31:05,763 --> 00:31:07,599 HERE ARE SOME BEAUTIFUL MAPS 725 00:31:07,665 --> 00:31:09,901 MADE BY NASA OF SOME VERY 726 00:31:09,968 --> 00:31:10,835 CHALLENGING TIMES. 727 00:31:10,902 --> 00:31:12,270 THESE ARE HEAT WAVES THAT 728 00:31:12,337 --> 00:31:13,605 OCCURRED OVER THE LAST FEW 729 00:31:13,671 --> 00:31:14,639 YEARS. 730 00:31:14,706 --> 00:31:16,541 SOME OF YOU MAY RECALL IN THE 731 00:31:16,608 --> 00:31:18,443 PACIFIC NORTHWEST HEAT WAVE OF A 732 00:31:18,509 --> 00:31:21,212 COUPLE YEARS AGO WHERE SORT OF 733 00:31:21,279 --> 00:31:25,316 THE TARMAC IN A FEW AIRPORTS IN 734 00:31:25,383 --> 00:31:27,652 THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST GOT SOFT. 735 00:31:27,719 --> 00:31:29,554 TEMPERATURES PEOPLE NEVER 736 00:31:29,621 --> 00:31:31,856 EXPERIENCED, THERE IS NOT 737 00:31:31,923 --> 00:31:33,358 WIDESPREAD AVAILABILITY OF AIR 738 00:31:33,424 --> 00:31:35,927 CONDITIONING IN SEATTLE, TACOMA, 739 00:31:35,994 --> 00:31:36,628 PORTLAND OR VANCOUVER SO THERE 740 00:31:36,694 --> 00:31:38,630 WAS A LOT OF ADVERSE HEALTH 741 00:31:38,696 --> 00:31:40,632 EFFECTS AS PEOPLE WERE EXPOSED 742 00:31:40,698 --> 00:31:41,799 TO TEMPERATURES THEY WEREN'T 743 00:31:41,866 --> 00:31:42,800 USED TO. 744 00:31:42,867 --> 00:31:44,369 ALSO LIVESTOCK AND PLANTS 745 00:31:44,435 --> 00:31:44,869 SUFFERED AS WELL. 746 00:31:44,936 --> 00:31:47,305 THERE WAS A VERY BROAD SCALE 747 00:31:47,372 --> 00:31:49,507 HEAT EVENT IN APRIL 2022. 748 00:31:49,574 --> 00:31:52,076 YOU CAN SEE OVER HERE -- I THINK 749 00:31:52,143 --> 00:31:57,348 I CAN POINT TO THIS, MAYBE? 750 00:31:57,415 --> 00:31:59,917 YOU SEE THESE OTHER 751 00:31:59,984 --> 00:32:00,952 TEMPERATURES, TWO METER AIR 752 00:32:01,019 --> 00:32:05,423 TEMPERATURES IN EXCESS OF 753 00:32:05,490 --> 00:32:07,492 40 DEGREES CELSIUS. 754 00:32:07,558 --> 00:32:17,235 THAT IS ABOUT 98. 98.6 755 00:32:17,302 --> 00:32:18,736 FAHRENHEIT, BODY TEMPERATURE AND 756 00:32:18,803 --> 00:32:24,609 SO YOU WILL NOT BE ABLE TO SWEAT 757 00:32:24,676 --> 00:32:26,077 SO REALLY INTERESTING CHALLENGES 758 00:32:26,144 --> 00:32:27,845 TO LIVE WITH AND THEN OVER THE 759 00:32:27,912 --> 00:32:29,180 SUMMER, MUCH OF THE UNITED 760 00:32:29,247 --> 00:32:30,648 STATES WAS UNDER PERSISTENT HEAT 761 00:32:30,715 --> 00:32:32,116 FOR A NUMBER OF WEEKS. 762 00:32:32,183 --> 00:32:34,485 I THINK HERE IN MARYLAND IT WAS 763 00:32:34,552 --> 00:32:36,254 WARM BUT NOT AS WARM AS OTHER 764 00:32:36,321 --> 00:32:39,957 PLACES BUT IF YOU WERE IN TEXAS, 765 00:32:40,024 --> 00:32:41,326 OKLAHOMA, ARIZONA, FLORIDA, AND 766 00:32:41,392 --> 00:32:43,995 THE IMPACT OF THESE HEAT WAVES 767 00:32:44,062 --> 00:32:45,897 TEND TO BE FELT MOST STRONGLY BY 768 00:32:45,963 --> 00:32:48,166 THE PEOPLE WHO HAVE THE LEAST 769 00:32:48,232 --> 00:32:50,868 RESOURCES TO ADAPT. 770 00:32:50,935 --> 00:32:56,541 SO THE UNHOUSED, BOOM -- PEOPLE 771 00:32:56,607 --> 00:32:57,475 WHO ARE TRANSITIONING AND DON'T 772 00:32:57,542 --> 00:33:00,511 HAVE A LOT OF ACCESS TO AIR 773 00:33:00,578 --> 00:33:04,649 CONDITIONING, PEOPLE WHO ARE 774 00:33:04,716 --> 00:33:06,684 ALREADY IN PRECARIOUS SITUATIONS 775 00:33:06,751 --> 00:33:08,686 TEND TO GET EXPOSED TO EXTREME 776 00:33:08,753 --> 00:33:11,055 HEAT AND I MIGHT UNDERSTAND THE 777 00:33:11,122 --> 00:33:12,590 UNDERLYING CONDITIONS IN THOSE 778 00:33:12,657 --> 00:33:13,725 POPULATIONS ISN'T GOING TO BE 779 00:33:13,791 --> 00:33:16,594 THE SAME AS THE RANDOM SAMPLING 780 00:33:16,661 --> 00:33:17,295 OF THE POPULATION. 781 00:33:17,362 --> 00:33:19,197 SO AS YOU MIGHT EXPECT, THERE IS 782 00:33:19,263 --> 00:33:23,167 SORT OF A COMPOUNDED EFFECT 783 00:33:23,234 --> 00:33:26,404 THROUGH OUR SOCIAL STATES, 784 00:33:26,471 --> 00:33:27,472 RIGHT, ECONOMIC STATES. 785 00:33:27,538 --> 00:33:30,041 NOW THESE HEAT WAVE EVENTS, 786 00:33:30,108 --> 00:33:32,009 THROUGH THE USE OF CLIMATE 787 00:33:32,076 --> 00:33:34,345 MODELS AND LONG-TERM RECORDS OF 788 00:33:34,412 --> 00:33:36,047 DATA, AS A SCIENTIFIC COMMUNITY, 789 00:33:36,114 --> 00:33:37,949 WE ARE STARTING TO BE ABLE TO 790 00:33:38,015 --> 00:33:40,518 ATTRIBUTE THEM TO DO CLIMATE 791 00:33:40,585 --> 00:33:42,086 CHANGE, ATTRIBUTE THEIR 792 00:33:42,153 --> 00:33:43,521 INCREASED ODDS. 793 00:33:43,588 --> 00:33:46,324 SO THERE IS A GROUP WHERE WHEN 794 00:33:46,391 --> 00:33:49,060 THERE IS AN EXTREME EVENT WILL 795 00:33:49,127 --> 00:33:51,129 TRY TO ASSESS THE ROLE CLIMATE 796 00:33:51,195 --> 00:33:53,064 CHANGE MAY HAVE HAD AND VERY 797 00:33:53,131 --> 00:33:56,401 OFTEN WE FIND THE SIGNATURE OF 798 00:33:56,467 --> 00:33:59,537 CLIMATE CHANGE, GLOBAL WARMING 799 00:33:59,604 --> 00:34:00,905 IN THE HEAT EVENTS. 800 00:34:00,972 --> 00:34:04,509 FOR EXAMPLE, THIS IS A STUDY 801 00:34:04,575 --> 00:34:07,111 PUBLISHED IN MAY 2022 THAT FOUND 802 00:34:07,178 --> 00:34:10,047 THE HEAT WAVE EVENT THAT 803 00:34:10,114 --> 00:34:11,916 HAPPENED IN PAKISTAN AND INDIA A 804 00:34:11,983 --> 00:34:15,119 FEW WEEKS EARLIER HAD BEEN MADE 805 00:34:15,186 --> 00:34:17,221 30 TIMES MORE LIKELY BY CLIMATE 806 00:34:17,288 --> 00:34:17,455 CHANGE. 807 00:34:17,522 --> 00:34:21,726 THAT IS NOT TO SAY IT WAS 808 00:34:21,793 --> 00:34:22,860 CAUSED, RIGHT, BUT FOR CLIMATE 809 00:34:22,927 --> 00:34:25,763 CHANGE THERE WOULD BE NO HEAT 810 00:34:25,830 --> 00:34:28,433 WAVE EVENT IN PAKISTAN BUT THE 811 00:34:28,499 --> 00:34:29,767 ODDS WERE CHANGED. 812 00:34:29,834 --> 00:34:34,172 AND IN FACT SOME OF THE LANGUAGE 813 00:34:34,238 --> 00:34:37,275 WE TAKE FROM EPIDEMIOLOGY WITH 814 00:34:37,341 --> 00:34:38,676 FLOW RATES, MAY BE SOMETHING YOU 815 00:34:38,743 --> 00:34:39,777 ARE FAMILIAR WITH. 816 00:34:39,844 --> 00:34:43,314 IT IS NOT JUST GLOBAL WARMING 817 00:34:43,381 --> 00:34:46,517 AFFECTING HEAT EVENTS. 818 00:34:46,584 --> 00:34:49,120 OTHER GLOBAL FACTORS EXACERBATE 819 00:34:49,187 --> 00:34:54,525 AND COMPLICATE EXTREME. 820 00:34:54,592 --> 00:34:57,595 IN INDIA, THERE WAS A HEAT WAVE 821 00:34:57,662 --> 00:34:59,797 IN 2019 BUT COUNTER VAILING THE 822 00:34:59,864 --> 00:35:02,633 EFFECT OF GREEN HOUSE EVENTS ON 823 00:35:02,700 --> 00:35:05,436 THAT PARTICULAR EVENT WAS THE 824 00:35:05,503 --> 00:35:09,273 RESULT OF POLLUTION SOOT THAT 825 00:35:09,340 --> 00:35:11,209 BLOCKS SUNLIGHT, THAT REDUCED 826 00:35:11,275 --> 00:35:13,478 THE INTENSITY OF THE HEAT WAVE 827 00:35:13,544 --> 00:35:15,680 AND ALSO IRRIGATION WHICH 828 00:35:15,746 --> 00:35:16,948 ARTIFICIALLY INCREASES THE 829 00:35:17,014 --> 00:35:17,949 AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ON THE 830 00:35:18,015 --> 00:35:21,018 SURFACE OF THE EARTH SO IT CAN 831 00:35:21,085 --> 00:35:22,553 SWEAT MORE, DECREASED THE 832 00:35:22,620 --> 00:35:24,255 AMPLITUDE OF THIS HEAT WAVE. 833 00:35:24,322 --> 00:35:27,391 SO AS WE TRY TO DECREASE THE 834 00:35:27,458 --> 00:35:30,761 HEAT WAVES, WE HAVE TO 835 00:35:30,828 --> 00:35:31,829 UNDERSTAND THESE COMPOUNDING 836 00:35:31,896 --> 00:35:32,330 FACTORS. 837 00:35:32,396 --> 00:35:35,933 SO NORMALLY YOU HAVE A NUMBER OF 838 00:35:36,000 --> 00:35:37,935 FACTORS THAT WOULD PRODUCE THE 839 00:35:38,002 --> 00:35:43,541 HEAT WAVE AND THEN THE OTHER 840 00:35:43,608 --> 00:35:45,376 FACTORS THAT WILL ACTUALLY 841 00:35:45,443 --> 00:35:47,578 MITIGATE THE HEAT WAVE. 842 00:35:47,645 --> 00:35:50,448 NOW, IT IS NOT JUST HOT 843 00:35:50,515 --> 00:35:52,083 TEMPERATURE EXTREMES THAT ARE 844 00:35:52,149 --> 00:35:53,317 AFFECTED BY HEAT WAVES. 845 00:35:53,384 --> 00:35:56,621 IT CAN STILL GET COLD IN THE 846 00:35:56,687 --> 00:36:01,158 WINTER BUT NOT GETTING AS COLD 847 00:36:01,225 --> 00:36:04,595 AS IT USED TO BE. 848 00:36:04,662 --> 00:36:06,797 SO PLOTTED HERE IS THE TRENDS 849 00:36:06,864 --> 00:36:08,599 SHOWN ON THE COLDEST DAY OF THE 850 00:36:08,666 --> 00:36:10,334 YEAR AND THE WAY THIS IS SCALED 851 00:36:10,401 --> 00:36:12,336 IS THE VALUE IS HOW MUCH MORE -- 852 00:36:12,403 --> 00:36:14,205 HOW MANY TIMES MORE THAN THE 853 00:36:14,272 --> 00:36:16,007 GLOBAL WARMING WE HAVE SEEN DOES 854 00:36:16,073 --> 00:36:17,575 THE TEMPERATURE OF THE COLDEST 855 00:36:17,642 --> 00:36:20,811 DAY OF THE YEAR GO UP BY. 856 00:36:20,878 --> 00:36:23,414 SO THESE DARKER BROWN -- SORT OF 857 00:36:23,481 --> 00:36:25,716 BROWN AND BRIGHT RED MEANS THE 858 00:36:25,783 --> 00:36:28,352 LOCAL COLDEST DAY OF THE YEAR 859 00:36:28,419 --> 00:36:31,822 GOT WARMER AT A RATE SOMEWHERE 4 860 00:36:31,889 --> 00:36:33,691 TO 5 TIMES THE RATE OF GLOBAL 861 00:36:33,758 --> 00:36:34,625 INCREASE OF TEMPERATURE. 862 00:36:34,692 --> 00:36:37,461 AND WHAT YOU CAN SEE IS OVER 863 00:36:37,528 --> 00:36:40,631 MUCH OF THE EX TROPICAL LAND, 864 00:36:40,698 --> 00:36:43,067 THE COLDEST DAY OF THE YEAR HAS 865 00:36:43,134 --> 00:36:45,202 GOT TEN COLD THREE TO FIVE TIMES 866 00:36:45,269 --> 00:36:47,705 AS MUCH AS THE PLANET HAS 867 00:36:47,772 --> 00:36:48,372 WARMED. 868 00:36:48,439 --> 00:36:50,808 THIS, YOU REMEMBER WHEN I SHOWED 869 00:36:50,875 --> 00:36:51,709 THIS POLAR AMPLIFICATION? 870 00:36:51,776 --> 00:36:54,412 THIS IS IN PART DUE TO POLAR 871 00:36:54,478 --> 00:37:02,320 CAMP -- AMPLIFICATION AS MOST 872 00:37:02,386 --> 00:37:04,055 OF THE WARMING OCCURS OVER LAND 873 00:37:04,121 --> 00:37:07,191 AND THEN SOME OF IT HAS TO DO 874 00:37:07,258 --> 00:37:08,859 WITH MELTING OF SNOW AND ICE 875 00:37:08,926 --> 00:37:10,995 BECAUSE IT IS WARMER THAN 876 00:37:11,062 --> 00:37:11,529 BEFORE. 877 00:37:11,596 --> 00:37:14,999 SO IT CAN STILL GET COLD. 878 00:37:15,066 --> 00:37:20,538 THIS HAS AN EFFECT ON THE VECTOR 879 00:37:20,605 --> 00:37:25,543 WARMING OF THE ATMOSPHERE. 880 00:37:25,610 --> 00:37:29,380 TICKS DON'T GO DORMANT LIKE THEY 881 00:37:29,447 --> 00:37:32,483 DO WHEN IT IS COLDER SO WALKING 882 00:37:32,550 --> 00:37:36,821 IN THE WOODS, I GOT A TICK AND 883 00:37:36,887 --> 00:37:43,294 THEREFORE THE EXPOSURE TO LYME, 884 00:37:43,361 --> 00:37:50,668 ROCKY MOUNTAIN FEVER, ET CETERA. 885 00:37:50,735 --> 00:37:53,437 NOW, RSV, RESPIRATORY VIRUS, A 886 00:37:53,504 --> 00:37:54,705 DIRECTLY TRANSMITTED RESPIRATORY 887 00:37:54,772 --> 00:37:54,939 DISEASE. 888 00:37:55,006 --> 00:37:56,874 IT IS I BELIEVE THE LEADING 889 00:37:56,941 --> 00:38:00,144 CAUSE OF DEATH UNDER CHILDREN 890 00:38:00,211 --> 00:38:02,446 UNDER 2 IN THE UNITED STATES. 891 00:38:02,513 --> 00:38:04,415 IT IS SORT OF -- MOST PEOPLE 892 00:38:04,482 --> 00:38:06,350 HAVE HAD IT AT SOME POINT. 893 00:38:06,417 --> 00:38:08,452 IT IS LIKE A COLD THAT HITS YOU 894 00:38:08,519 --> 00:38:10,454 LATER IN LIFE BUT CAN BE QUITE 895 00:38:10,521 --> 00:38:12,556 SERIOUS IF IT GETS TO YOU EARLY 896 00:38:12,623 --> 00:38:16,460 AND IT IS A DISEASE THAT YOU CAN 897 00:38:16,527 --> 00:38:17,628 SEE ITS TRANSMISSION RATE 898 00:38:17,695 --> 00:38:19,230 DEPENDS BOTH ON HUMIDITY AND 899 00:38:19,296 --> 00:38:22,066 ALSO THE AMOUNT OF RAIL AND IT 900 00:38:22,133 --> 00:38:25,302 HAS THIS U-SHAPE WHERE DRY AIR 901 00:38:25,369 --> 00:38:28,072 INCREASES TRANSMISSION, SIMILAR 902 00:38:28,139 --> 00:38:30,141 TO INFLUENZA, RIGHT, AND ALSO 903 00:38:30,207 --> 00:38:32,910 VERY RAINY WEATHER TENDS TO 904 00:38:32,977 --> 00:38:33,744 INCREASE TRANSMISSION RATES. 905 00:38:33,811 --> 00:38:36,047 SO THERE ARE THESE LARGER 906 00:38:36,113 --> 00:38:39,250 PATTERNS OF WHEN THE ONSET WEEK 907 00:38:39,316 --> 00:38:41,585 OF RSV IS IN DIFFERENT PARTS OF 908 00:38:41,652 --> 00:38:42,553 MEXICO AND THE UNITED STATES, 909 00:38:42,620 --> 00:38:45,489 WHERE IT IS OCCURRING EARLIER IN 910 00:38:45,556 --> 00:38:47,491 MORE TROPICAL REASONS AND THIS 911 00:38:47,558 --> 00:38:49,427 TENDS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH 912 00:38:49,493 --> 00:38:50,895 HEAVY RAINFALL AND OCCURRING 913 00:38:50,961 --> 00:38:55,766 LATER IN THE YEAR WITH DRYNESS 914 00:38:55,833 --> 00:38:56,500 IN THE AIR. 915 00:38:56,567 --> 00:39:00,404 AS THE PLANET WARMS, YOU GET AN 916 00:39:00,471 --> 00:39:01,305 INCREASE IN WARMTH WHICH CAN 917 00:39:01,372 --> 00:39:03,708 INCREASE THE RATE OF 918 00:39:03,774 --> 00:39:05,376 TRANSMISSION IN TROPICAL REGIONS 919 00:39:05,443 --> 00:39:08,112 BUT ALSO A MOIST THINNING OF THE 920 00:39:08,179 --> 00:39:11,315 AIR IN HIGH LATITUDES SO YOU END 921 00:39:11,382 --> 00:39:13,050 UP GETTING THIS REDISTRIBUTION 922 00:39:13,117 --> 00:39:15,352 FROM THE HIGH LATITUDES TO THE 923 00:39:15,419 --> 00:39:17,655 LOW LATITUDES AND IT ALSO 924 00:39:17,722 --> 00:39:18,389 CHANGES THE SHAPE. 925 00:39:18,456 --> 00:39:26,197 IT MOVES FROM A MORE CHAOTIC, 926 00:39:26,263 --> 00:39:30,501 BENNIAL CHANGE IN REGIONS TO A 927 00:39:30,568 --> 00:39:31,102 MORE ANNUAL CYCLE. 928 00:39:31,168 --> 00:39:33,370 NOW, DROUGHT IS ANOTHER THING 929 00:39:33,437 --> 00:39:34,105 WE'RE CONCERNED ABOUT. 930 00:39:34,171 --> 00:39:37,508 THIS IS IN CALIFORNIA AND AFTER 931 00:39:37,575 --> 00:39:39,043 THE PERSISTENT DROUGHT IN THE 932 00:39:39,110 --> 00:39:42,313 U.S. IN THE LAST DECADE OR SO, 933 00:39:42,379 --> 00:39:47,752 YOU CAN SEE FOLSOM POND. 934 00:39:47,818 --> 00:39:49,954 CAN'T RUN FOR HYDRATION ANYMORE, 935 00:39:50,020 --> 00:39:54,091 THEN WHEN YOU HAVE THE STAGNANT 936 00:39:54,158 --> 00:39:57,328 WATER THERE, YOU HAVE THINGS 937 00:39:57,394 --> 00:39:58,262 GROWING IN THERE. 938 00:39:58,329 --> 00:40:01,699 SO FOR A WHILE NOW MODELS HAVE 939 00:40:01,766 --> 00:40:03,100 PROJECTED THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. 940 00:40:03,167 --> 00:40:05,870 TO TRANSITION TO A MORE ARID 941 00:40:05,936 --> 00:40:12,143 CLIMATE, THIS IS A SERIES OF 942 00:40:12,209 --> 00:40:12,943 PREDICTIONS FOR ARIDITY IN THE 943 00:40:13,010 --> 00:40:15,079 WESTERN UNITED STATES AND YOU 944 00:40:15,146 --> 00:40:16,647 CAN SEE THE PREDICTION OF A 945 00:40:16,714 --> 00:40:19,750 TRANSITION TO A MORE ARID STATE 946 00:40:19,817 --> 00:40:22,019 AS CLIMATE WARMS, THE AIR IS 947 00:40:22,086 --> 00:40:23,921 MORE CAPABLE OF REMOVING 948 00:40:23,988 --> 00:40:25,523 MOISTURE FROM THE AIR IN THE 949 00:40:25,589 --> 00:40:26,457 SOUTHWEST. 950 00:40:26,524 --> 00:40:29,760 AND IN FACT THE ANALYSIS OF 951 00:40:29,827 --> 00:40:31,128 ARIDITY IN THE WESTERN UNITED 952 00:40:31,195 --> 00:40:37,001 STATES HAS FOUND THAT THE 953 00:40:37,067 --> 00:40:38,569 EXTREME ARID PERIOD OVER THE 954 00:40:38,636 --> 00:40:40,538 LAST DECADE OR SO IN THE WESTERN 955 00:40:40,604 --> 00:40:43,808 UNITED STATES IS EXACERBATED BY 956 00:40:43,874 --> 00:40:46,277 GLOBAL WARMING BUT NOT ENTIRELY 957 00:40:46,343 --> 00:40:50,548 DUE TO GLOBAL WARMING. 958 00:40:50,614 --> 00:40:51,782 THOSE WHO KNOW THE HISTORY OF 959 00:40:51,849 --> 00:40:55,052 THE UNITED STATES KNOW THERE 960 00:40:55,119 --> 00:40:56,954 HAVE BEEN DROUGHTS GOING BACK IN 961 00:40:57,021 --> 00:41:01,492 TIME BUT THE CURRENT ENVELOPE IS 962 00:41:01,559 --> 00:41:04,895 PAST THE ENVELOPE OF THE PAST 963 00:41:04,962 --> 00:41:07,031 DROUGHT AND INCREASE DUE TO 964 00:41:07,097 --> 00:41:07,565 GLOBAL WARMING. 965 00:41:07,631 --> 00:41:10,301 SO NOT JUST THE DRY STEAMS 966 00:41:10,367 --> 00:41:13,304 AMPLIFIED BY GLOBAL WARMING BUT 967 00:41:13,370 --> 00:41:15,139 ALSO WET EXTREMES. 968 00:41:15,206 --> 00:41:19,743 HERE HURRICANE HARVEY, A BIG 969 00:41:19,810 --> 00:41:22,012 LANDFALL IN HOUSTON DUMPED ABOUT 970 00:41:22,079 --> 00:41:25,316 THREE TIMES THE AVERAGE 3-DAY 971 00:41:25,382 --> 00:41:29,987 RAINFALL OVER HOUSTON IN A 3-DAY 972 00:41:30,054 --> 00:41:33,591 PERIOD, DUMPED A WHOLE SEASON'S 973 00:41:33,657 --> 00:41:37,061 WORTH OF RAIN OVER HOUSTON. 974 00:41:37,127 --> 00:41:39,496 MULTIPLE STUDIES WERE ABLE TO 975 00:41:39,563 --> 00:41:43,534 SHOW THE ODDS OF THAT KIND OF 976 00:41:43,601 --> 00:41:45,369 HARVEY'S RAINFALL IS DUE TO 977 00:41:45,436 --> 00:41:47,037 GLOBAL WARMING AND WE THINK THE 978 00:41:47,104 --> 00:41:48,339 WARMING WE WILL GET IN THE 979 00:41:48,405 --> 00:41:50,241 FUTURE WILL BE LARGER THAN 980 00:41:50,307 --> 00:41:51,175 WARMING IN THE PAST. 981 00:41:51,242 --> 00:41:53,711 NOW, IT IS NOT JUST GLOBAL 982 00:41:53,777 --> 00:41:56,680 WARMING TO KNOW HOW THE HOUSTON 983 00:41:56,747 --> 00:41:57,081 AREA HAS CHANGED. 984 00:41:57,147 --> 00:41:59,550 ANYBODY WHO HAS BEEN TO HOUSTON 985 00:41:59,617 --> 00:42:03,654 WILL SEE IT IS A VERY 986 00:42:03,721 --> 00:42:04,755 WELL-DEVELOPED URBAN ENVIRONMENT 987 00:42:04,822 --> 00:42:07,925 AND AS THE WIND BLOWS OVER THE 988 00:42:07,992 --> 00:42:09,627 BUILDINGS, THEY ACT AS 989 00:42:09,693 --> 00:42:10,194 MOUNTAINS. 990 00:42:10,261 --> 00:42:11,495 THEY GENERATE MOTION IN THE AIR 991 00:42:11,562 --> 00:42:13,664 THAT TENDS TO PUSH THE AIR 992 00:42:13,731 --> 00:42:15,199 UPWARD AND MAKE IT RAIN. 993 00:42:15,266 --> 00:42:17,735 SO THIS STUDY HERE WAS ABLE TO 994 00:42:17,801 --> 00:42:20,571 SHOW IN ADDITION TO THE HUMAN 995 00:42:20,638 --> 00:42:23,807 INDUCED EFFECT OF GLOBAL WARMING 996 00:42:23,874 --> 00:42:25,342 ON HARVEY'S RAINFALL, YOU HAVE 997 00:42:25,409 --> 00:42:28,045 THE EFFECT OF URBANIZATION THAT 998 00:42:28,112 --> 00:42:29,079 CONCENTRATED RAINFALL OVER 999 00:42:29,146 --> 00:42:31,015 HOUSTON BUT ALSO CON TRADED 1000 00:42:31,081 --> 00:42:34,251 FLOODING OVER HOUSTON AS THE 1001 00:42:34,318 --> 00:42:36,754 WATER COULDN'T INFILTRATE ON THE 1002 00:42:36,820 --> 00:42:39,390 GROUND AND RAN OFF ALONG PAVED 1003 00:42:39,456 --> 00:42:41,725 AREAS. 1004 00:42:41,792 --> 00:42:43,160 SO THE URBANIZATION INCREASED 1005 00:42:43,227 --> 00:42:45,596 THE ODDS OF FLOODING BY A FACTOR 1006 00:42:45,663 --> 00:42:48,032 OF 20 AND THESE TWO FACTORS, 1007 00:42:48,098 --> 00:42:54,805 GLOBAL WARMING AND URBANIZATION 1008 00:42:54,872 --> 00:42:57,675 COMBINED LINEARLY MADE FLOODING 1009 00:42:57,741 --> 00:43:01,245 40 TIMES MORE LIKELY FROM BOTH 1010 00:43:01,312 --> 00:43:03,681 URBANIZATION AND GREENHOUSE GAS 1011 00:43:03,747 --> 00:43:04,214 EMISSION. 1012 00:43:04,281 --> 00:43:06,650 WE EXPECT THE INTENSITY OF 1013 00:43:06,717 --> 00:43:07,251 HURRICANES MAKING LANDFALL IN 1014 00:43:07,318 --> 00:43:09,420 THE U.S. IS GOING TO CONTINUE TO 1015 00:43:09,486 --> 00:43:13,557 INCREASE AS WE GO FORWARD IN THE 1016 00:43:13,624 --> 00:43:16,260 21ST CENTURY, INCLUDING THE 1017 00:43:16,327 --> 00:43:17,594 POTENTIAL FOR UNPRECEDENTED 1018 00:43:17,661 --> 00:43:20,597 CATEGORIES, 3, 4, 5, THE MOST 1019 00:43:20,664 --> 00:43:21,632 EXTREME HURRICANES, IN THESE 1020 00:43:21,699 --> 00:43:22,566 BLACK AREAS. 1021 00:43:22,633 --> 00:43:25,402 SO PLACES LIKE MAINE THAT DON'T 1022 00:43:25,469 --> 00:43:31,809 NORMAL LY RECEIVE HURRICANES 1023 00:43:31,875 --> 00:43:33,577 WILL SEE MORE OVER A CENTURY AND 1024 00:43:33,644 --> 00:43:34,979 THAT WILL POSE A CHALLENGE 1025 00:43:35,045 --> 00:43:37,381 BECAUSE THE INFRASTRUCTURE ISN'T 1026 00:43:37,448 --> 00:43:38,215 ADAPTED TO THESE EXTREME STORMS 1027 00:43:38,282 --> 00:43:40,718 AND IT IS A QUESTION AS TO HOW 1028 00:43:40,784 --> 00:43:42,953 TO ADAPT TO THIS. 1029 00:43:43,020 --> 00:43:44,388 ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT CLEAR WHETHER 1030 00:43:44,455 --> 00:43:50,561 WE SEE THE IMPACT OF GLOBAL 1031 00:43:50,627 --> 00:43:53,030 WARMING ON PLANET HURRICANES IN 1032 00:43:53,097 --> 00:43:56,233 PART BECAUSE THE POST WORLD WAR 1033 00:43:56,300 --> 00:43:58,702 II INDUSTRIAL BOOM IN EUROPE AND 1034 00:43:58,769 --> 00:44:03,007 NORTH AMERICA WAS FUELED BY COAL 1035 00:44:03,073 --> 00:44:06,243 WHICH DUMPED A BUNCH OF SOOT 1036 00:44:06,310 --> 00:44:11,648 OVER THE OCEAN WHICH SEEMS TO 1037 00:44:11,715 --> 00:44:16,120 MASK DAYLIGHT. 1038 00:44:16,186 --> 00:44:17,955 CLEAN AIR REGULATIONS HAS 1039 00:44:18,022 --> 00:44:18,689 REMOVED THAT SOOT. 1040 00:44:18,756 --> 00:44:23,060 SO AT THE SAME TIME WHEN 1041 00:44:23,127 --> 00:44:25,095 WIDESPREAD AVAILABILITY LED 1042 00:44:25,162 --> 00:44:29,666 PEOPLE TO MOVE TO OTHER 1043 00:44:29,733 --> 00:44:31,802 LOCATIONS, WE MASKED IT AND NOW 1044 00:44:31,869 --> 00:44:33,570 WE HAVE UNMASKED IT AND SO I 1045 00:44:33,637 --> 00:44:40,310 THINK WE WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL 1046 00:44:40,377 --> 00:44:41,578 OF STRONGER HURRICANES GOING 1047 00:44:41,645 --> 00:44:41,879 FORWARD. 1048 00:44:41,945 --> 00:44:45,249 ONE OF THE WAYS TO CHANGE THE 1049 00:44:45,315 --> 00:44:47,451 WARMING WE WILL GET IN THE 1050 00:44:47,518 --> 00:44:51,688 FUTURE IS TO REUSE IT GREENHOUSE 1051 00:44:51,755 --> 00:44:52,723 EMISSIONS. 1052 00:44:52,790 --> 00:44:57,361 THAT WILL BE TO CHANGE THE 1053 00:44:57,428 --> 00:44:59,496 ECONOMY FROM FOSSIL FUELS TO 1054 00:44:59,563 --> 00:45:00,664 SOLAR BASED FUELS AND THE 1055 00:45:00,731 --> 00:45:04,068 PROBLEM IS AS WE GO INTO CERTAIN 1056 00:45:04,134 --> 00:45:05,335 CLIMATES, WE'RE TRANSITIONING 1057 00:45:05,402 --> 00:45:07,404 FROM A ENERGY SOURCE THAT CARED 1058 00:45:07,471 --> 00:45:09,239 ABOUT THE WEATHER MILLIONS OF 1059 00:45:09,306 --> 00:45:12,443 YEARS AGO TO AN ENERGY SOURCE 1060 00:45:12,509 --> 00:45:15,813 HERE, YOU KNOW, DAMNS, WIND 1061 00:45:15,879 --> 00:45:17,214 FARMS, THAT CARE ABOUT TODAY'S 1062 00:45:17,281 --> 00:45:19,950 WEATHER OR THE WEATHER RECENTLY, 1063 00:45:20,017 --> 00:45:20,317 RIGHT? 1064 00:45:20,384 --> 00:45:23,554 SO WE'RE GOING TO HAVE -- MOVE 1065 00:45:23,620 --> 00:45:26,523 FROM A PLACE WHERE WE ARE 1066 00:45:26,590 --> 00:45:29,626 DECOUPLED FROM THE WEATHER FOR 1067 00:45:29,693 --> 00:45:32,262 ENERGY IN SOME WAYS TO MOVE TO A 1068 00:45:32,329 --> 00:45:34,498 PLACE WHERE WEATHER AND ENERGY 1069 00:45:34,565 --> 00:45:37,201 WILL BE TRULY LINKED. 1070 00:45:37,267 --> 00:45:40,204 SO IN SUMMARY, GREEN HOUSE GAS 1071 00:45:40,270 --> 00:45:41,805 INCREASES, BOTTOM LINE AT THE 1072 00:45:41,872 --> 00:45:48,545 TOP, HAVE CONTINUED TO WARM OUR 1073 00:45:48,612 --> 00:45:49,246 PLANET. 1074 00:45:49,313 --> 00:45:55,452 WE HAVE PURCHASED BASED ON HOW 1075 00:45:55,519 --> 00:45:55,786 MUCH. 1076 00:45:55,853 --> 00:45:59,623 SOME EVENTS ARE UNDERSTOOD AND 1077 00:45:59,690 --> 00:46:00,757 PREDICTABLE, OTHERS ARE NOT AND 1078 00:46:00,824 --> 00:46:02,259 WE WILL HAVE TO LEARN HOW TO 1079 00:46:02,326 --> 00:46:05,462 LIVE IN THE SOMEWHAT CHANGING 1080 00:46:05,529 --> 00:46:07,631 WORLD THAT IS UNPREDICTABLE. 1081 00:46:07,698 --> 00:46:14,204 THE IMPACT FOR ENERGY 1082 00:46:14,271 --> 00:46:14,872 TRANSITION, CLIMATE 1083 00:46:14,938 --> 00:46:17,040 SEQUESTRATION AND THE TWO 1084 00:46:17,107 --> 00:46:18,642 CARTOONS I HAVE HERE, THE PAST 1085 00:46:18,709 --> 00:46:21,178 AND THE FUTURE, WE DON'T 1086 00:46:21,245 --> 00:46:22,513 UNDERSTAND THE PAST BUT ARE 1087 00:46:22,579 --> 00:46:26,750 GETTING A BETTER SENSE FOR THEM 1088 00:46:26,817 --> 00:46:29,820 WITH THESE DIE AND THEN IN THE 1089 00:46:29,887 --> 00:46:31,555 FUTURE, NOT ONLY DO WE HAVE THE 1090 00:46:31,622 --> 00:46:33,824 LOADING BUT MAY CHANGE THE SHAPE 1091 00:46:33,891 --> 00:46:36,160 OF THE DIE WE HAVE TO WORK WITH, 1092 00:46:36,226 --> 00:46:38,729 TO LIVE AND UNDERSTAND HOW THE 1093 00:46:38,795 --> 00:46:42,466 ATMOSPHERE WORKS TO MAKE 1094 00:46:42,533 --> 00:46:43,600 PREDICTIONS TO BETTER LIVE IN 1095 00:46:43,667 --> 00:46:46,336 THAT WORLD SO WITH THAT, I WILL 1096 00:46:46,403 --> 00:46:47,704 STOP AND THANK YOU. 1097 00:46:47,771 --> 00:46:50,274 >> THANK YOU VERY MUCH, GABRIEL. 1098 00:46:50,340 --> 00:47:00,817 SO NOW WE WILL HEAR FROM Dr. 1099 00:47:12,062 --> 00:47:22,139 SAWKA. 1100 00:48:06,416 --> 00:48:08,018 >>> ALL RIGHT, THANK YOU, IT IS 1101 00:48:08,085 --> 00:48:09,620 A PLEASURE TO BE HERE TODAY. 1102 00:48:09,686 --> 00:48:12,756 TODAY I HAVE BEEN CHARGED TO 1103 00:48:12,823 --> 00:48:14,925 PROVIDE A HIGH-LEVEL OVERVIEW OF 1104 00:48:14,992 --> 00:48:18,028 HUMAN EXPOSURE TO EXTREME HEAT. 1105 00:48:18,095 --> 00:48:20,897 AND THE OUTLINE I AM GOING TO 1106 00:48:20,964 --> 00:48:23,100 FOLLOW TO DO THIS IS FIRST TO 1107 00:48:23,166 --> 00:48:26,503 ADDRESS WHAT IS DRIVING THE HOT 1108 00:48:26,570 --> 00:48:27,871 WEATHER, THE PHYSIOLOGY OF THE 1109 00:48:27,938 --> 00:48:29,539 STRESS AND WE WILL SPEND TIME ON 1110 00:48:29,606 --> 00:48:34,177 THIS BECAUSE IT IS IMPORTANT TO 1111 00:48:34,244 --> 00:48:36,580 UNDERSTAND THAT INFORMATION. 1112 00:48:36,647 --> 00:48:40,017 ADAPTATION TO CHRONIC HEAT 1113 00:48:40,083 --> 00:48:42,252 STRESS, HYPERTHERMIA INDUCED 1114 00:48:42,319 --> 00:48:43,453 WORK IMPAIRMENTS AND I WILL 1115 00:48:43,520 --> 00:48:47,691 SPEND QUITE A BIT OF TIME ON 1116 00:48:47,758 --> 00:48:50,427 SERIOUS HEAT ILLNESS AND THEN 1117 00:48:50,494 --> 00:48:51,962 BIOENGINEERING TO MANAGE 1118 00:48:52,029 --> 00:48:53,430 KOUPGSAL HEAT STRAIN. 1119 00:48:53,497 --> 00:49:03,974 SO I WILL BE LOOKING AT THE 1120 00:49:06,576 --> 00:49:17,020 BIOPHYSICS, PHYSIOLOGY, ADAPTO 1121 00:49:18,288 --> 00:49:18,622 PHYSIOLOGY. 1122 00:49:18,689 --> 00:49:19,956 SO WHAT IS EXTREME WEATHER? 1123 00:49:20,023 --> 00:49:23,060 WE HAVE AN ELDERLY WOMAN AT THE 1124 00:49:23,126 --> 00:49:25,595 TOP SITTING IN FRONT OF A FAN. 1125 00:49:25,662 --> 00:49:28,832 EXTREME HOT WEATHER FOR HER MAY 1126 00:49:28,899 --> 00:49:31,635 BE DIFFERENT THAN A YOUNG ADULT 1127 00:49:31,702 --> 00:49:34,237 WORKING PROTECTIVE EQUIPMENT 1128 00:49:34,304 --> 00:49:36,139 WORKING OUTDOORS. 1129 00:49:36,206 --> 00:49:40,010 OR AN ELITE ATHLETE WEARING 1130 00:49:40,077 --> 00:49:41,378 HEAVY CLOTHES IN THE HEAT. 1131 00:49:41,445 --> 00:49:43,180 SO IT DEPENDS ON THE PERSON, 1132 00:49:43,246 --> 00:49:44,848 ACTIVITY LEVEL AND CLOTHING. 1133 00:49:44,915 --> 00:49:46,783 AND WE'LL TALK A LITTLE ABOUT 1134 00:49:46,850 --> 00:49:49,119 THAT IN THE NEXT FEW SLIDES. 1135 00:49:49,186 --> 00:49:51,488 THE FIRST SLIDE I WILL SHOW TO 1136 00:49:51,555 --> 00:49:57,294 DISCUSS THIS IS WHAT IS CALLED A 1137 00:49:57,361 --> 00:49:57,728 PSYCHOMETRIC CHART. 1138 00:49:57,794 --> 00:50:00,364 THE PSYCHOMETRIC CHART USED BY 1139 00:50:00,430 --> 00:50:05,235 HEATING AND VENTILATION 1140 00:50:05,302 --> 00:50:09,206 ENGINEERING TO EMPHASIZE THE 1141 00:50:09,272 --> 00:50:09,639 RESISTIBILITY. 1142 00:50:09,706 --> 00:50:12,042 YOU CAN SEE YOU HAVE A PLOT OF 1143 00:50:12,109 --> 00:50:13,577 DRY TEMPERATURE AND THEN SOME 1144 00:50:13,643 --> 00:50:15,178 MEASURE OF HUMIDITY. 1145 00:50:15,245 --> 00:50:18,281 AND WHAT WE HAVE THEN IS 1146 00:50:18,348 --> 00:50:21,385 DIFFERENT AREAS OF THERMAL 1147 00:50:21,451 --> 00:50:25,055 COMFORT BASED ON THE INDEX OF 1148 00:50:25,122 --> 00:50:25,722 EFFECTIVE TEMPERATURES. 1149 00:50:25,789 --> 00:50:28,892 AND YOU CAN SEE SOME AREAS ARE 1150 00:50:28,959 --> 00:50:29,659 SLIGHTLY UNCOMFORTABLE, WE WILL 1151 00:50:29,726 --> 00:50:32,129 LOOK AT THE AREAS THAT ARE 1152 00:50:32,195 --> 00:50:33,897 DEEMED TO BE UNCOMFORTABLE AND 1153 00:50:33,964 --> 00:50:39,369 THEN IN THE HIGHER LEVELS, YOU 1154 00:50:39,436 --> 00:50:44,541 CANNOT THERMAL REGULATE AS MUCH 1155 00:50:44,608 --> 00:50:44,975 AS YOU NEED. 1156 00:50:45,041 --> 00:50:49,846 SO THIS AREA OF THE CHART IS 1157 00:50:49,913 --> 00:50:52,115 BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOTHES I 1158 00:50:52,182 --> 00:50:55,519 HAVE ON AND WHAT IS INTERESTING 1159 00:50:55,585 --> 00:51:00,190 IS Dr. HARDY IN THE 50s 1160 00:51:00,257 --> 00:51:01,825 CHARTED MILITARY HEAT STROKE 1161 00:51:01,892 --> 00:51:04,461 DEATHS AND THIS CHART FALLS INTO 1162 00:51:04,528 --> 00:51:08,365 AN AREA OF 35 FOR AREAS 1163 00:51:08,432 --> 00:51:09,266 UNCOMFORTABLE. 1164 00:51:09,332 --> 00:51:11,802 SO WE'RE SATURDAYSING THOSE 1165 00:51:11,868 --> 00:51:15,372 LIGHTLY DRESSED WITH MINIMAL 1166 00:51:15,439 --> 00:51:16,740 ACTIVITY, NOT EXTREMELY 1167 00:51:16,807 --> 00:51:19,176 UNCOMFORTABLE BUT FOR A ACTIVE 1168 00:51:19,242 --> 00:51:20,877 PERSON COULD BE CATASTROPHIC. 1169 00:51:20,944 --> 00:51:23,513 NOW MOVING FROM THIS CHART TO 1170 00:51:23,580 --> 00:51:25,449 SOME RECENTLY PUBLISHED DATA AND 1171 00:51:25,515 --> 00:51:27,551 THIS COMES OUT OF THE PENN STATE 1172 00:51:27,617 --> 00:51:31,054 LABS AND AGAIN WE HAVE THE IDEA 1173 00:51:31,121 --> 00:51:34,991 OF THE PSYCHOMETRIC CHART WITH 1174 00:51:35,058 --> 00:51:38,762 WET AND DRY FALL AND TAKE INTO 1175 00:51:38,829 --> 00:51:40,530 EFFECT THE MINIMAL ACTIVITY AND 1176 00:51:40,597 --> 00:51:42,666 THIS WOULD BE LIKE YOU WORKING 1177 00:51:42,732 --> 00:51:44,968 IN YOUR RESEARCH LABORATORY, 1178 00:51:45,035 --> 00:51:46,269 MOVING AROUND, NOT SWEATING AS 1179 00:51:46,336 --> 00:51:49,039 YOU WORK AND THEY WANT TO DEFINE 1180 00:51:49,105 --> 00:51:53,643 THE UPPER LIMITS TO THERMO 1181 00:51:53,710 --> 00:51:56,446 REGULATE, WHAT IS THE EXTREME. 1182 00:51:56,513 --> 00:51:58,682 SO HERE WE HAVE THE VALUES FOR 1183 00:51:58,748 --> 00:52:00,517 YOUNG INDIVIDUALS. 1184 00:52:00,584 --> 00:52:04,187 NOW, THEY ALSO GOT A GROUP OF 1185 00:52:04,254 --> 00:52:05,856 HEALTHY OLDER INDIVIDUALS -- 1186 00:52:05,922 --> 00:52:07,224 SHOULDN'T SAY HEALTHY BECAUSE I 1187 00:52:07,290 --> 00:52:12,529 AM IN MY 70s, HAD THEM SITTING 1188 00:52:12,596 --> 00:52:18,268 IN THE CHAMBERS TO SEE THEIR 1189 00:52:18,335 --> 00:52:19,035 ABILITY TO THERMOREGULATE. 1190 00:52:19,102 --> 00:52:20,937 SO YOU SLIGHTLY INCREASE THE 1191 00:52:21,004 --> 00:52:23,273 ACTIVITY, GET A OLDER INDIVIDUAL 1192 00:52:23,340 --> 00:52:26,510 WHO IS BASICALLY STILL VERY 1193 00:52:26,576 --> 00:52:29,779 HEALTHY AND FIT WE BELIEVE AND 1194 00:52:29,846 --> 00:52:31,414 THE BIOPHYSICAL LIMITS OF THE 1195 00:52:31,481 --> 00:52:33,950 CHANGE OF WHAT WOULD BE 1196 00:52:34,017 --> 00:52:39,923 CONSIDERED UNCOMFORTABLE FOR A 1197 00:52:39,990 --> 00:52:43,527 YOUNG PERSON AND THEIR ABILITY 1198 00:52:43,593 --> 00:52:44,728 TO THERMOREGULATE. 1199 00:52:44,794 --> 00:52:46,997 SO YOU HAVE TO LOOK AT THE 1200 00:52:47,063 --> 00:52:48,331 CONDITIONS INVOLVED. 1201 00:52:48,398 --> 00:52:56,673 THE OTHER WAY WE LOOKED AT THIS, 1202 00:52:56,740 --> 00:52:58,208 THE THERMALIZATION WHERE THEY 1203 00:52:58,275 --> 00:52:59,576 PLOT THE TEMPERATURE AND 1204 00:52:59,643 --> 00:53:00,477 RELATIVE HUMIDITY. 1205 00:53:00,544 --> 00:53:08,618 THIS IS WHERE THEY STARTED 1206 00:53:08,685 --> 00:53:11,988 GETTING HOSPITALIZATION, NOT 1207 00:53:12,055 --> 00:53:12,489 MUCH MORBIDITY INVOLVED. 1208 00:53:12,556 --> 00:53:13,657 AND THEN THE LOWER PART OF THE 1209 00:53:13,723 --> 00:53:18,995 SLIDE THEY ARE SEEING MORE 1210 00:53:19,062 --> 00:53:19,429 MORBIDITY. 1211 00:53:19,496 --> 00:53:21,765 HERE AGAIN, THAT AFFECTS 1212 00:53:21,831 --> 00:53:24,000 TEMPERATURE, 35 DEGREES, WHICH 1213 00:53:24,067 --> 00:53:24,401 IS UNCOMFORTABLE. 1214 00:53:24,467 --> 00:53:28,204 SO AS POINTED OUT, THE 1215 00:53:28,271 --> 00:53:28,738 VULNERABLE POPULATION, 1216 00:53:28,805 --> 00:53:30,707 POPULATIONS MAYBE BASED ON 1217 00:53:30,774 --> 00:53:32,375 WEATHER REPORTING DATA AND 1218 00:53:32,442 --> 00:53:35,478 PEOPLE MAYBE THAT WERE IN AN 1219 00:53:35,545 --> 00:53:38,014 AREA THAT HAD EXTREME HEAT BUT 1220 00:53:38,081 --> 00:53:39,382 THESE INDIVIDUALS WHO WE WOULD 1221 00:53:39,449 --> 00:53:41,484 DESCRIBE AS BEING SLIGHTLY 1222 00:53:41,551 --> 00:53:42,619 UNCOMFORTABLE ARE STARTING TO 1223 00:53:42,686 --> 00:53:44,988 SEE LARGE NUMBERS OF MORTALITY 1224 00:53:45,055 --> 00:53:45,188 OCCUR. 1225 00:53:45,255 --> 00:53:46,823 SO AS YOU CAN SEE THERE IS NO 1226 00:53:46,890 --> 00:53:49,893 ONE IDEA OF WHAT EXTREME MEANS. 1227 00:53:49,960 --> 00:53:51,494 IT DEPENDS ON WHO YOU ARE. 1228 00:53:51,561 --> 00:53:53,863 THERE ARE OTHER APPROACHES I 1229 00:53:53,930 --> 00:53:56,900 WILL SHOW QUICKLY, FOR EXAMPLE, 1230 00:53:56,967 --> 00:53:57,267 OCCUPATIONALLY. 1231 00:53:57,334 --> 00:53:59,169 THIS IS FROM THE WORLD HEALTH 1232 00:53:59,235 --> 00:53:59,502 ORGANIZATION. 1233 00:53:59,569 --> 00:54:04,007 THEY DON'T LOOK AT YOUR ABILITY 1234 00:54:04,074 --> 00:54:05,575 TO THERMOREGULATE BUT HOW LONG 1235 00:54:05,642 --> 00:54:09,212 YOU CAN SUSTAIN FOUR HOURS OF 1236 00:54:09,279 --> 00:54:10,714 WORK IN EXTREME HEAT. 1237 00:54:10,780 --> 00:54:15,752 SO AS YOU WORK HARDER, THE WBGT 1238 00:54:15,819 --> 00:54:16,786 INDEX, IT GETS LOWER, YOU HAVE 1239 00:54:16,853 --> 00:54:19,856 TO GO TO COOLER WEATHER AND HERE 1240 00:54:19,923 --> 00:54:30,233 IS THE EFFECTS OF 1241 00:54:36,139 --> 00:54:36,840 ACCLIMATE-IZATION. 1242 00:54:36,906 --> 00:54:42,646 SO YOU HAVE TO ADJUST MORE AS WE 1243 00:54:42,712 --> 00:54:45,882 GET INTO THE LOWER ABILITY. 1244 00:54:45,949 --> 00:54:50,620 SO THERE IS NO ONE WAY TO 1245 00:54:50,687 --> 00:54:53,456 REGULATE AND WE COULD SPEND DAYS 1246 00:54:53,523 --> 00:54:53,857 TALKING ABOUT IT. 1247 00:54:53,923 --> 00:54:58,061 NOW A CARTOON THAT CAN SHOW YOU 1248 00:54:58,128 --> 00:54:59,763 THE HEAT WHEN WE WORK AND I 1249 00:54:59,829 --> 00:55:02,966 THINK THIS IS IMPORTANT WHEN WE 1250 00:55:03,033 --> 00:55:03,733 GET TO PATHOLOGY. 1251 00:55:03,800 --> 00:55:08,605 HUMANS WHEN WE HAVE A METABOLISM 1252 00:55:08,672 --> 00:55:13,510 OF 100WANNUAL TTS OF A LIGHT 1253 00:55:13,576 --> 00:55:15,912 BLUSH, YOU PRODUCE MORE HEAT AND 1254 00:55:15,979 --> 00:55:19,215 AS WE INCREASE OUR EXPENDITURE, 1255 00:55:19,282 --> 00:55:20,617 ONLY ABOUT 20 PERCENT GOES INTO 1256 00:55:20,684 --> 00:55:21,117 WORK. 1257 00:55:21,184 --> 00:55:24,454 UNDER 80 PERCENT IS RELEASED AS 1258 00:55:24,521 --> 00:55:28,758 METABOLIC HEAT THAT THE BODY HAS 1259 00:55:28,825 --> 00:55:31,394 TO DISTANCE. 1260 00:55:31,461 --> 00:55:37,967 SO AS YOU INCREASE ACTIVITY, YOU 1261 00:55:38,034 --> 00:55:40,870 INCREASE THE AMOUNT YOU HAVE TO 1262 00:55:40,937 --> 00:55:41,604 DISSIPATE. 1263 00:55:41,671 --> 00:55:44,908 SO THIS IS CALLED DRY HEAT SKIN. 1264 00:55:44,974 --> 00:55:49,145 YOU WARM THE SKIN AS YOU 1265 00:55:49,212 --> 00:55:52,449 INCREASE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT 1266 00:55:52,515 --> 00:55:54,718 FROM THE SKIN FOR HEAT LOSS. 1267 00:55:54,784 --> 00:55:58,321 THE SECOND MECHANISM IS 1268 00:55:58,388 --> 00:55:58,588 SWEATING. 1269 00:55:58,655 --> 00:56:02,125 IT EVAPORATES AT THE SKIN, THE 1270 00:56:02,192 --> 00:56:03,526 SKIN COOLS FROM EVAPORATION AND 1271 00:56:03,593 --> 00:56:05,028 BLOOD BEING BROUGHT TO THE SKIN 1272 00:56:05,095 --> 00:56:07,063 COOLS THE BODY. 1273 00:56:07,130 --> 00:56:08,865 NOW, DEPENDING ON THE 1274 00:56:08,932 --> 00:56:12,535 ENVIRONMENT, HOW YOU USE THAT IS 1275 00:56:12,602 --> 00:56:13,036 GOING TO VARY. 1276 00:56:13,103 --> 00:56:18,675 BUT THIS IS AN IMPORTANT POINT. 1277 00:56:18,742 --> 00:56:20,877 REGARDLESS OF HOW THE SYSTEM 1278 00:56:20,944 --> 00:56:23,847 WORKS, YOU ALWAYS HAVE TO 1279 00:56:23,913 --> 00:56:24,514 ACHIEVE A STEADY-STATE 1280 00:56:24,581 --> 00:56:28,284 TEMPERATURE, THAT IS JUST HOW IT 1281 00:56:28,351 --> 00:56:28,952 IS. 1282 00:56:29,018 --> 00:56:30,653 SO THE BODY WILL REGULATE TO 1283 00:56:30,720 --> 00:56:34,290 BRING TEMPERATURE DOWN TO 1284 00:56:34,357 --> 00:56:36,526 ACHIEVE SOME STEADY STATE CORE 1285 00:56:36,593 --> 00:56:36,926 TEMPERATURE. 1286 00:56:36,993 --> 00:56:41,364 SO HOW IS THE STEADY STATE CORE 1287 00:56:41,431 --> 00:56:43,733 TEMPERATURE IMPACTED AND WHAT 1288 00:56:43,800 --> 00:56:44,768 LEADS TO MISPERCEPTIONS BECAUSE 1289 00:56:44,834 --> 00:56:48,538 WE HAVE SEEN MANY MISPER S-PGSZ 1290 00:56:48,605 --> 00:56:56,212 IN THE MEDICAL AND PHYSIOLOGICAL 1291 00:56:56,279 --> 00:56:57,147 WORLDS. 1292 00:56:57,213 --> 00:57:02,452 SO WE HAVE A DRY CLIMATE, OKAY, 1293 00:57:02,519 --> 00:57:03,486 AND REST. 1294 00:57:03,553 --> 00:57:09,159 MODERATE WORK, YOU HAVE A WET 1295 00:57:09,225 --> 00:57:10,293 CLIMATE AND MODERATE WORK. 1296 00:57:10,360 --> 00:57:12,128 I AM NOT VERY GOOD AT THIS. 1297 00:57:12,195 --> 00:57:14,664 WE ALSO HAVE DIFFERENT 1298 00:57:14,731 --> 00:57:15,265 ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS GOING 1299 00:57:15,331 --> 00:57:17,600 FROM A COOL TO 40 DEGREES 1300 00:57:17,667 --> 00:57:17,934 ENVIRONMENT. 1301 00:57:18,001 --> 00:57:21,671 SO IF I AM RESTING IN A DRY 1302 00:57:21,738 --> 00:57:25,775 ENVIRONMENT AND CAN HAVE 1303 00:57:25,842 --> 00:57:26,743 EVAPORATIVE HEAT LOSS, THERE IS 1304 00:57:26,810 --> 00:57:31,714 NOT MUCH CHANGE IN MY CORE 1305 00:57:31,781 --> 00:57:32,248 TEMPERATURE. 1306 00:57:32,315 --> 00:57:33,950 WHAT IF I AM DOING WORK? 1307 00:57:34,017 --> 00:57:36,319 MY BODY TEMPERATURE IS GOING TO 1308 00:57:36,386 --> 00:57:40,056 RISE, IT WILL TAKE A WHILE 1309 00:57:40,123 --> 00:57:43,593 BEFORE YOU SEE THE STORE RAGE OF 1310 00:57:43,660 --> 00:57:47,096 HEAT BUT I CAN SEE A SLIGHTLY 1311 00:57:47,163 --> 00:57:48,031 HIGHER CORE TEMPERATURE. 1312 00:57:48,097 --> 00:57:49,599 WHAT HAPPENS IF I GO TO A WET 1313 00:57:49,666 --> 00:57:50,066 CLIMATE? 1314 00:57:50,133 --> 00:57:52,302 HERE I HAVE A INDIVIDUAL AT 1315 00:57:52,368 --> 00:57:52,936 REST, OKAY? 1316 00:57:53,002 --> 00:57:57,707 AND YOU CAN SEE THERE IS QUITE A 1317 00:57:57,774 --> 00:58:01,377 BIT OF IMPACT ON CORE 1318 00:58:01,444 --> 00:58:04,147 TEMPERATURE, EVEN ACCENTUATED 1319 00:58:04,214 --> 00:58:05,582 MORE IN THE MODERN WORK THAT MAY 1320 00:58:05,648 --> 00:58:08,251 NOT BE ABLE TO ACHIEVE THIS. 1321 00:58:08,318 --> 00:58:08,718 WHY IS THIS? 1322 00:58:08,785 --> 00:58:11,921 THE REASON IS THE CORE 1323 00:58:11,988 --> 00:58:13,523 TEMPERATURE IS ELEVATED BECAUSE 1324 00:58:13,590 --> 00:58:15,692 YOU CAN'T DEPEND ON DRY HEAT 1325 00:58:15,758 --> 00:58:15,992 LOSS. 1326 00:58:16,059 --> 00:58:18,595 YOU NEED TO ELEVATE THE CORE 1327 00:58:18,661 --> 00:58:22,098 TEMPERATURE TO THE WIDEST POINT 1328 00:58:22,165 --> 00:58:23,700 ON THE GRADIENT. 1329 00:58:23,766 --> 00:58:29,505 HEAT LOSS IS DEPENDENT ON THE 1330 00:58:29,572 --> 00:58:33,710 BLOOD TO SURFACE AND TEMPERATURE 1331 00:58:33,776 --> 00:58:35,178 OF THE HEAT GRADIENT. 1332 00:58:35,245 --> 00:58:40,216 SO IT IS A STRATEGY TO SUPPORT 1333 00:58:40,283 --> 00:58:41,217 CARDIOVASCULAR STABILITY WHICH 1334 00:58:41,284 --> 00:58:46,890 WE WILL TALK ABOUT LATER, OKAY, 1335 00:58:46,956 --> 00:58:53,429 AND OFTEN INTERPRETED IN 1336 00:58:53,496 --> 00:58:56,266 THERMOREGULATORY FAILURES WITH 1337 00:58:56,332 --> 00:58:57,400 ATHLETES AND WHAT NOT. 1338 00:58:57,467 --> 00:58:59,135 AND SOME OFF THE ENVELOPE 1339 00:58:59,202 --> 00:59:02,138 CALCULATION IF YOU LOSE THE BODY 1340 00:59:02,205 --> 00:59:08,578 HEAT TO DRY HEAT EXCHANGE TO 1341 00:59:08,645 --> 00:59:16,286 CALCULATE THE CORE SKIN, HERE 1342 00:59:16,352 --> 00:59:19,455 YOU HAVE A COOL TEMPERATURE AND 1343 00:59:19,522 --> 00:59:21,157 CORE GRADIENT ABOUT THE SAME. 1344 00:59:21,224 --> 00:59:28,531 IF I GO TO A HOTTER ENVIRONMENT, 1345 00:59:28,598 --> 00:59:30,833 THE CORE TEMPERATURE COMES UP, I 1346 00:59:30,900 --> 00:59:33,269 CAN DRIVE THE CORE SKIN DOWN 1347 00:59:33,336 --> 00:59:34,671 QUITE A BIT. 1348 00:59:34,737 --> 00:59:36,572 SO YOU SEE THE HEAT LOSS 1349 00:59:36,639 --> 00:59:39,075 MECHANISM AND WHAT I WILL SHOW 1350 00:59:39,142 --> 00:59:43,313 YOU IS EVERY MECHANISM HAS A 1351 00:59:43,379 --> 00:59:44,247 PENALTY RELYING ON PHYSIOLOGY 1352 00:59:44,314 --> 00:59:45,648 THAT IS NOT THERE. 1353 00:59:45,715 --> 00:59:49,919 SO YOU HAVE THE MAXIMAL SKIN 1354 00:59:49,986 --> 00:59:51,454 BLOOD FLOW, AT REST AND DURING 1355 00:59:51,521 --> 00:59:53,890 EXERCISE AND WE HAVE TALKED 1356 00:59:53,957 --> 00:59:54,924 ABOUT THE BENEFITS. 1357 00:59:54,991 --> 00:59:56,626 BUT WHAT ARE THE PENALTIES OF 1358 00:59:56,693 --> 01:00:03,633 HAVING TO HAVE A HIGH WARM SKIN 1359 01:00:03,700 --> 01:00:08,838 BLOOD FLOW? 1360 01:00:08,905 --> 01:00:12,241 WELL, THE BENEFIT IS YOU ARE 1361 01:00:12,308 --> 01:00:13,876 INCREASING CIRCULATION, THE SKIN 1362 01:00:13,943 --> 01:00:16,045 BECOMES WARM, THEY BECOME MORE 1363 01:00:16,112 --> 01:00:17,880 COMPLIANT, HAVING THIS BLOOD 1364 01:00:17,947 --> 01:00:18,548 HANG OUT. 1365 01:00:18,614 --> 01:00:21,918 BUT THERE IS A PENALTY AND WE 1366 01:00:21,985 --> 01:00:24,320 SAW THIS INCREASED VASCULAR 1367 01:00:24,387 --> 01:00:30,093 SPACE, MOVEMENT OF BLOOD FLOW 1368 01:00:30,159 --> 01:00:31,227 RELATIVE TO HYPOVOLEMIA. 1369 01:00:31,294 --> 01:00:35,865 LIKEWISE IF WE'RE GOING TO 1370 01:00:35,932 --> 01:00:42,472 DEPEND ON EVAPORATION WHICH IS 1371 01:00:42,538 --> 01:00:44,741 VERY EFFECTIVE, YOU HAVE 1372 01:00:44,807 --> 01:00:48,311 SWEATING WHERE YOU CAN LOSE UP 1373 01:00:48,378 --> 01:00:51,614 TO TWO LITERS PER HOUR AND THAT 1374 01:00:51,681 --> 01:00:52,982 COOLS THE SKIN. 1375 01:00:53,049 --> 01:00:58,621 BUT YOU ALSO HAVE DEHYDRATION AS 1376 01:00:58,688 --> 01:01:00,490 TEMPERATURES WARM AND THAT 1377 01:01:00,556 --> 01:01:01,791 REDUCES BLOOD VOLUME. 1378 01:01:01,858 --> 01:01:05,161 SO FROM A PHYSIOLOGY POINT OF 1379 01:01:05,228 --> 01:01:08,598 VIEW, YOU HAVE TWO DIFFERENT 1380 01:01:08,664 --> 01:01:12,769 THINGS GOING ON. 1381 01:01:12,835 --> 01:01:14,871 YOU HAVE VASODILATION WHERE YOU 1382 01:01:14,937 --> 01:01:17,507 INCREASE THE VASCULAR SPACE AND 1383 01:01:17,573 --> 01:01:23,746 THEN DECREASE THE HYPOVOLEMIA. 1384 01:01:23,813 --> 01:01:26,215 SO LET'S LOOK AT WHAT IS THE 1385 01:01:26,282 --> 01:01:27,583 IMPACT OF THIS. 1386 01:01:27,650 --> 01:01:32,822 HERE'S SOME SLIDES WHERE WE LOOK 1387 01:01:32,889 --> 01:01:43,433 AT THE HEAT STRESS ON CUTANEOUS 1388 01:01:46,069 --> 01:01:50,273 AND SKELETON MUSCLE 1389 01:01:50,339 --> 01:01:51,240 VASODILATION. 1390 01:01:51,307 --> 01:01:54,577 SO YOU HAVE OXYGEN UPTAKE HERE 1391 01:01:54,644 --> 01:01:55,678 AND THIS IS OUTPUT. 1392 01:01:55,745 --> 01:01:59,782 IF I AM IN THE HEAT AND THIS IS 1393 01:01:59,849 --> 01:02:04,487 A FAIRLY ACUTE HEAT, I CANNOT 1394 01:02:04,554 --> 01:02:05,855 INCREASE MY CARDIAC OUTPUT AS 1395 01:02:05,922 --> 01:02:06,456 MUCH. 1396 01:02:06,522 --> 01:02:07,857 IT IS ACTUALLY HERE. 1397 01:02:07,924 --> 01:02:16,065 NOW ALSO WHAT WE HAVE IS REDUCED 1398 01:02:16,132 --> 01:02:17,366 REGULATION, REDUCING BLOOD FLOW 1399 01:02:17,433 --> 01:02:18,901 DUE TO EXERCISE AND HEAT STRESS 1400 01:02:18,968 --> 01:02:22,405 SO IT CAN MOVE THE BLOOD FLOW TO 1401 01:02:22,472 --> 01:02:24,040 THE SKIN. 1402 01:02:24,107 --> 01:02:27,810 AND HERE WE LOOK AT THE AMOUNT 1403 01:02:27,877 --> 01:02:31,080 COMPARED TO NORMAL, YOU CAN SEE 1404 01:02:31,147 --> 01:02:33,282 THE INCREASE IN THE ENVIRONMENT, 1405 01:02:33,349 --> 01:02:35,251 AND IF I ADD HEAT, YOU GET MORE 1406 01:02:35,318 --> 01:02:38,154 AND IF I ADDED DEHYDRATION WITH 1407 01:02:38,221 --> 01:02:45,027 HEAT, YOU WOULD GET EVEN MORE. 1408 01:02:45,094 --> 01:02:48,831 SO YOU HAVE THIS CHANGE IN BLOOD 1409 01:02:48,898 --> 01:02:56,139 FLOW JUST BASED ON RELATIVE 1410 01:02:56,205 --> 01:02:57,006 HYPOVOLEMIA. 1411 01:02:57,073 --> 01:03:01,310 SO WHAT HAPPENS IF YOU HAVE 1412 01:03:01,377 --> 01:03:06,249 RELATIVE AND ABSOLUTE 1413 01:03:06,315 --> 01:03:07,150 HYPOVOLEMIA? 1414 01:03:07,216 --> 01:03:09,652 WELL, IN THE FIRST CARDIAC 1415 01:03:09,719 --> 01:03:11,787 OUTPUT, IT IS ABOUT THE SAME. 1416 01:03:11,854 --> 01:03:14,891 BUT NOW IF THEY START 1417 01:03:14,957 --> 01:03:16,792 DEHYDRATING OVER TIME, UP TO A 1418 01:03:16,859 --> 01:03:18,361 4 PERCENT BODY MASS WHICH IS 1419 01:03:18,427 --> 01:03:21,130 COMP TO BELIEVE WHAT AN ATHLETE 1420 01:03:21,197 --> 01:03:24,800 OR WORKER HAS OCCUR, YOU CAN SEE 1421 01:03:24,867 --> 01:03:26,903 THE CARDIAC ABILITY DROPPING. 1422 01:03:26,969 --> 01:03:31,674 SO IT BECOMES MORE AND MORE 1423 01:03:31,741 --> 01:03:33,109 DIFFICULT. 1424 01:03:33,176 --> 01:03:35,878 BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY, WE TALKED 1425 01:03:35,945 --> 01:03:37,046 ABOUT BLOOD FLOW. 1426 01:03:37,113 --> 01:03:39,382 IF YOU EXERCISE IN THE HEAT NO 1427 01:03:39,448 --> 01:03:43,386 ONE HAS EVER SHOWN MUSCLE BLOOD 1428 01:03:43,452 --> 01:03:46,455 FLOW WILL BE COMPROMISED BUT IF 1429 01:03:46,522 --> 01:03:52,895 YOU ADD IN THE HEAT, YOU CAN SEE 1430 01:03:52,962 --> 01:03:56,365 EVEN SKELETAL BLOOD FLOW IS 1431 01:03:56,432 --> 01:03:56,899 AFFECTED. 1432 01:03:56,966 --> 01:04:05,908 SO IN TIME YOU CAN SEE THAT THE 1433 01:04:05,975 --> 01:04:09,111 HYPOVOLEMIA IS CHANGED DUE TO 1434 01:04:09,178 --> 01:04:10,346 VARYING RANGES OF HEAT. 1435 01:04:10,413 --> 01:04:16,352 SO WHAT ARE THE ADAPTATIONS OF 1436 01:04:16,419 --> 01:04:17,720 CHRONIC HEAT STRESS? 1437 01:04:17,787 --> 01:04:21,157 WELL, QUITE GOOD BECAUSE WE ARE 1438 01:04:21,224 --> 01:04:22,558 ADAPTABLE ANIMALS BUT THERE IS A 1439 01:04:22,625 --> 01:04:24,126 LIMIT TO IT. 1440 01:04:24,193 --> 01:04:27,830 SO WHEN WE LOOK AT ADAPTATIONS 1441 01:04:27,897 --> 01:04:30,499 TO THE HEAT, THERE ARE TWO TYPES 1442 01:04:30,566 --> 01:04:34,070 THAT OCCUR. 1443 01:04:34,136 --> 01:04:37,607 FIRST WE HAVE ACCLIMATIZATION 1444 01:04:37,673 --> 01:04:39,542 WHERE WE REDUCE OUR RESPONSE TO 1445 01:04:39,609 --> 01:04:40,910 HEAT. 1446 01:04:40,977 --> 01:04:41,611 THAT IS WELL-KNOWN. 1447 01:04:41,677 --> 01:04:44,614 WE ALSO HAVE ACQUIRED THERMAL 1448 01:04:44,680 --> 01:04:48,251 TOLERANCE AND THESE ARE THE 1449 01:04:48,317 --> 01:04:50,286 CHANGES THAT PROTECT CELLS AND 1450 01:04:50,353 --> 01:04:53,022 THIS IS ALSO RESOLVING IN AN 1451 01:04:53,089 --> 01:04:55,825 AREA THAT IS EMERGING. 1452 01:04:55,891 --> 01:05:00,830 SO HOW DO YOU REDUCE THESE 1453 01:05:00,896 --> 01:05:01,831 ADAPTATIONS? 1454 01:05:01,897 --> 01:05:02,965 WELL, THESE ARE SIMPLE 1455 01:05:03,032 --> 01:05:05,134 GUIDELINES THAT I THINK OCCUR 1456 01:05:05,201 --> 01:05:13,409 OVER MANY DAYS OF THE EXPOSURE. 1457 01:05:13,476 --> 01:05:15,311 THAT HEAT STRESS HAS TO BE 1458 01:05:15,378 --> 01:05:17,113 SUFFICIENT TO INCREASE BODY 1459 01:05:17,179 --> 01:05:19,181 TEMPERATURE AND SWEATING. 1460 01:05:19,248 --> 01:05:22,018 THE DURATION, ABOUT 100 MINUTES 1461 01:05:22,084 --> 01:05:22,618 A DAY. 1462 01:05:22,685 --> 01:05:24,887 PEOPLE SAY DO I HAVE TO LIVE IN 1463 01:05:24,954 --> 01:05:27,156 THE HEAT, NO, BUT YOU HAVE TO BE 1464 01:05:27,223 --> 01:05:29,925 OUT IN IT FOR A POURED. 1465 01:05:29,992 --> 01:05:32,795 THE EXPOSURE TAKES 4 TO 14 DAYS 1466 01:05:32,862 --> 01:05:35,998 BUT WE'RE ALSO LEARNING THAT THE 1467 01:05:36,065 --> 01:05:39,869 LONGER IS BETTER BECAUSE THERE 1468 01:05:39,935 --> 01:05:41,837 IS AN EPIGENETIC ADAPTIVE 1469 01:05:41,904 --> 01:05:42,138 MEMORY. 1470 01:05:42,204 --> 01:05:44,340 AND IT IS ALSO HEAT STRESS 1471 01:05:44,407 --> 01:05:47,276 SPECIFIC. 1472 01:05:47,343 --> 01:05:52,882 IF YOU ADAPT FOR REST, IT WILL 1473 01:05:52,948 --> 01:05:56,452 NOT BE THE SAME AS EXERCISE AND 1474 01:05:56,519 --> 01:05:57,820 THERE IS ALSO THE DIFFERENCE 1475 01:05:57,887 --> 01:05:59,655 BETWEEN DESERT AND TROPIC 1476 01:05:59,722 --> 01:06:00,790 BECAUSE OF THE DIFFERENT 1477 01:06:00,856 --> 01:06:02,758 STRESSES ON THE BODY. 1478 01:06:02,825 --> 01:06:13,102 SO LET'S LOOK AT THE EFFECTS OF 1479 01:06:13,169 --> 01:06:14,637 THE HEAT ACCLIMATIZATION BASED 1480 01:06:14,704 --> 01:06:16,138 ON PERFORMANCE. 1481 01:06:16,205 --> 01:06:20,943 SO HERE WE HAVE THE' SO HAVE 1482 01:06:21,010 --> 01:06:22,244 DEAL WITH TEMPERATURE TAKEN AT 1483 01:06:22,311 --> 01:06:25,081 THE TIME THAT REPRESENTS THE 1484 01:06:25,147 --> 01:06:26,182 BLOOD CORE. 1485 01:06:26,248 --> 01:06:31,253 THEN YOU HAVE THE HEAT 1486 01:06:31,320 --> 01:06:35,191 ASSIGNMENTIZATION AND TIME TO 1487 01:06:35,257 --> 01:06:35,624 EXHAUSTION. 1488 01:06:35,691 --> 01:06:37,727 AS EACH DAY GOES ON, THEY CAN 1489 01:06:37,793 --> 01:06:40,996 WORK OUT LONGER BUT THEN THEY 1490 01:06:41,063 --> 01:06:43,265 ALSO HAVE REDUCED CORE 1491 01:06:43,332 --> 01:06:43,766 TEMPERATURE. 1492 01:06:43,833 --> 01:06:47,636 SO THEY CAN HAVE LESS THERMAL 1493 01:06:47,703 --> 01:06:49,438 STRENGTH, WORK LONGER. 1494 01:06:49,505 --> 01:06:51,540 YOU APPLY ANOTHER VARIABLE SUCH 1495 01:06:51,607 --> 01:06:53,075 AS HEART RATE, YOU CAN SEE THE 1496 01:06:53,142 --> 01:06:55,911 SAME TYPE OF THING SO THERE IS 1497 01:06:55,978 --> 01:06:59,782 AN ABATEMENT OF STRAIN AND 1498 01:06:59,849 --> 01:07:01,884 INCREASE WORK AS THE LIMITATION. 1499 01:07:01,951 --> 01:07:04,653 WHAT IS THE BIOLOGY OF THIS? 1500 01:07:04,720 --> 01:07:08,991 WELL, THERE ARE A VARIETY OF 1501 01:07:09,058 --> 01:07:12,628 MECHANISMS THAT RESULT IN THIS. 1502 01:07:12,695 --> 01:07:19,568 THE OBVIOUS ONE FROM THE 1503 01:07:19,635 --> 01:07:24,373 THERMOREGULATORY, LIKE MYSELF, 1504 01:07:24,440 --> 01:07:28,744 THE HEART RATE IS LOWERED 1505 01:07:28,811 --> 01:07:33,382 MEANING REST, THE CARDIAC OUTPUT 1506 01:07:33,449 --> 01:07:37,987 IS BETTER SUSTAINED WHICH IS 1507 01:07:38,053 --> 01:07:38,888 WITH EXERCISE LOWERED. 1508 01:07:38,954 --> 01:07:43,959 YOU FIND AS THE HEART RATE IS 1509 01:07:44,026 --> 01:07:48,798 LOWER, CARDIAC ABILITY IS 1510 01:07:48,864 --> 01:07:50,366 INCREASED. 1511 01:07:50,433 --> 01:07:53,569 BLOOD PRESSURE IS INTERDEPENDENT 1512 01:07:53,636 --> 01:07:55,971 AND THE CONS STATUTE VALUE 1513 01:07:56,038 --> 01:07:57,907 OVERLOAD INVOLVED WITH THAT. 1514 01:07:57,973 --> 01:08:01,010 YOU ALSO SEE THE RED BLOOD CELL 1515 01:08:01,076 --> 01:08:11,620 VOLUME WILL GO UP A LITTLE BIT. 1516 01:08:16,192 --> 01:08:20,396 [INDISCERNIBLE] 1517 01:08:20,463 --> 01:08:22,331 ELECTROLIGHTS LOSS, AFFECTED BY 1518 01:08:22,398 --> 01:08:26,168 SODIUM, THE BODY WATER WILL BE 1519 01:08:26,235 --> 01:08:28,504 INCREASED AND PLASMA VOLUME. 1520 01:08:28,571 --> 01:08:31,407 THERE IS ALSO SOME METABOLIC AND 1521 01:08:31,474 --> 01:08:33,609 NEEDS TO BE LOOKED AT MORE AS 1522 01:08:33,676 --> 01:08:38,647 THE LOW ENERGY COST OF WORK AND 1523 01:08:38,714 --> 01:08:43,319 THEN THE MUSCLE GLYCOGEN USE AND 1524 01:08:43,385 --> 01:08:48,757 LACTATE LOWERED. 1525 01:08:48,824 --> 01:08:49,925 REQUIRED THERMAL TOLERANCE, 1526 01:08:49,992 --> 01:08:55,631 THESE ACTUALLY AFFECT THE CELLS 1527 01:08:55,698 --> 01:08:58,567 FROM MULTIPLE STRESSORS. 1528 01:08:58,634 --> 01:09:06,509 SOME PEOPLE CALL THIS MON SITE 1529 01:09:06,575 --> 01:09:08,577 CYTOXICITY. 1530 01:09:08,644 --> 01:09:14,016 THERE IS ALSO THE HEAT SHOCK 1531 01:09:14,083 --> 01:09:17,486 PROTEINS AND EPIGENETIC ADAPTIVE 1532 01:09:17,553 --> 01:09:18,187 MEMORY. 1533 01:09:18,254 --> 01:09:22,224 SO HERE IS THE SLIDE WE SHOW 1534 01:09:22,291 --> 01:09:25,261 FROM A 10-DAY ACCLIMATIZATION 1535 01:09:25,327 --> 01:09:25,995 PROGRAM. 1536 01:09:26,061 --> 01:09:30,533 AND YOU CAN SEE BOTH GO UP 1537 01:09:30,599 --> 01:09:33,202 FAIRLY QUICKLY FROM BASELINE 1538 01:09:33,269 --> 01:09:33,936 LEVEL. 1539 01:09:34,003 --> 01:09:35,504 SO HUMANS CAN ADAPT. 1540 01:09:35,571 --> 01:09:38,541 THEY ADAPT TO A VARIETY OF 1541 01:09:38,607 --> 01:09:40,309 DIFFERENT MECHANISMS, AT THE 1542 01:09:40,376 --> 01:09:42,645 WHOLE SYSTEMS LEVEL AND CELLULAR 1543 01:09:42,711 --> 01:09:47,783 LEVEL BUT YOU WILL STILL HAVE 1544 01:09:47,850 --> 01:09:49,084 REDUCED PERFORMANCE. 1545 01:09:49,151 --> 01:09:51,820 THIS IS ESTIMATED TO RESULT IN 1546 01:09:51,887 --> 01:09:54,490 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS LOST IN THE 1547 01:09:54,557 --> 01:09:58,227 ECONOMY DUE TO LOSS OF WORK. 1548 01:09:58,294 --> 01:10:04,333 SO WE NOT ONLY NEED TO PROTECT 1549 01:10:04,400 --> 01:10:05,568 WORKERS WITH PATHO PHYSIOLOGY 1550 01:10:05,634 --> 01:10:07,703 BUT ALSO THEIR ABILITY TO WORK. 1551 01:10:07,770 --> 01:10:10,072 I PUT THESE TWO STUDIES UP 1552 01:10:10,139 --> 01:10:15,744 BECAUSE WE DID A STUDY IN 2014, 1553 01:10:15,811 --> 01:10:17,846 MANY YEARS TO BE SEEN AND WHAT 1554 01:10:17,913 --> 01:10:21,050 IS INTERESTING, WE ALREADY HAVE 1555 01:10:21,116 --> 01:10:22,985 AN ADVANCED SLIDE AND WE ARE 1556 01:10:23,052 --> 01:10:24,520 ARGUING BASICALLY THE SAME 1557 01:10:24,587 --> 01:10:24,853 STUFF. 1558 01:10:24,920 --> 01:10:28,123 BUT THE CENTRAL NERVOUS SYSTEM 1559 01:10:28,190 --> 01:10:30,793 TENDS TO BE INVOLVED AND WILL 1560 01:10:30,859 --> 01:10:32,428 REDUCE MOTOR DRIVE BUT AS WE 1561 01:10:32,494 --> 01:10:35,331 WILL TALK ABOUT LATER IN SPORTS 1562 01:10:35,397 --> 01:10:38,834 MEDICINE, THE CENTRAL GOVERNOR 1563 01:10:38,901 --> 01:10:41,036 CATASTROPHIC THEORY WAS THOUGHT 1564 01:10:41,103 --> 01:10:49,011 TO BE A RESULT OF THIS BUT THAT 1565 01:10:49,078 --> 01:10:49,311 IS NONSENSE. 1566 01:10:49,378 --> 01:10:55,684 AND THIS I THINK HAS APPLICATION 1567 01:10:55,751 --> 01:11:00,255 IN THE METABOLISM FORCE BUT 1568 01:11:00,322 --> 01:11:01,256 PREDOMINANTLY MECHANISMS OF 1569 01:11:01,323 --> 01:11:03,559 FATIGUE IN THE CENTRAL NERVOUS 1570 01:11:03,626 --> 01:11:05,060 SYSTEM ARE IN THE CARDIOVASCULAR 1571 01:11:05,127 --> 01:11:07,963 SYSTEM AND THAT IS THE INABILITY 1572 01:11:08,030 --> 01:11:11,333 TO SUSTAIN CARDIAC OUTPUT, 1573 01:11:11,400 --> 01:11:17,172 INABILITY TO SUSTAIN BLOOD 1574 01:11:17,239 --> 01:11:21,477 PRESSURE AND AFFECT THE MUSCLE 1575 01:11:21,543 --> 01:11:27,449 PER FUSION TISSUE. 1576 01:11:27,516 --> 01:11:32,154 SO WE LOOK AT THE PHYSICAL WORK 1577 01:11:32,221 --> 01:11:35,257 CAPACITY AND AT 25, 30 DEGREES 1578 01:11:35,324 --> 01:11:37,426 WHICH IS WHAT WE SEE THAT WE 1579 01:11:37,493 --> 01:11:42,531 CONSIDER TO BE THE START OF WARM 1580 01:11:42,598 --> 01:11:43,932 WEATHER, YOU CAN GET A VERY 1581 01:11:43,999 --> 01:11:44,967 SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF WORK. 1582 01:11:45,034 --> 01:11:47,069 YOU MIGHT BE ABLE TO IMPROVE IN 1583 01:11:47,136 --> 01:11:50,439 A BIT BUT WILL STILL HAVE A 1584 01:11:50,506 --> 01:11:51,206 LARGE REDUCTION. 1585 01:11:51,273 --> 01:11:55,277 AND THAT IS FROM AN INDIVIDUAL 1586 01:11:55,344 --> 01:11:55,911 IN THE HEAT. 1587 01:11:55,978 --> 01:11:58,213 WHAT HAPPENS IF YOU HAVE 1588 01:11:58,280 --> 01:11:58,580 DEHYDRATION? 1589 01:11:58,647 --> 01:12:01,950 AND WE HAVE ALL SEEN THE 1590 01:12:02,017 --> 01:12:04,920 ADVERTISEMENTS THAT WE SHOULD BE 1591 01:12:04,987 --> 01:12:05,754 HYDRATED ALL THE TIME. 1592 01:12:05,821 --> 01:12:08,123 AND IN FACT SITTING HERE 1593 01:12:08,190 --> 01:12:10,492 ALTHOUGH WE'RE NOT EXERCISING 1594 01:12:10,559 --> 01:12:13,128 RIGHT NOW, JUST SITTING IN THIS 1595 01:12:13,195 --> 01:12:15,230 ROOM, YOU MIGHT NEED A DRINK OF 1596 01:12:15,297 --> 01:12:16,365 WATER. 1597 01:12:16,432 --> 01:12:19,735 SO HERE IS SOME EXPERIMENTS 1598 01:12:19,802 --> 01:12:24,640 WHERE WE HAD INDIVIDUALS DOING 1599 01:12:24,707 --> 01:12:26,475 PERFORMANCE AND YOU CAN SEE THAT 1600 01:12:26,542 --> 01:12:28,877 DEPENDS ON SKIN TEMPERATURES. 1601 01:12:28,944 --> 01:12:31,246 WHEN SKIN TEMPERATURES GO UP, 1602 01:12:31,313 --> 01:12:36,952 YOU HAVE HIGHER VIOLATION. 1603 01:12:37,019 --> 01:12:39,555 FOR PERFORMANCE, ATHLETIC TYPE 1604 01:12:39,621 --> 01:12:41,523 OF PERFORMANCE ON TRIALS, YOU 1605 01:12:41,590 --> 01:12:42,858 HAVE THESE DIFFERENT SKIN 1606 01:12:42,925 --> 01:12:43,325 TEMPERATURES. 1607 01:12:43,392 --> 01:12:49,231 SO HERE WE HAVE 90 PERCENT AND 1608 01:12:49,298 --> 01:12:56,672 AS WE INCREASE SKIN TEMPERATURE, 1609 01:12:56,739 --> 01:12:58,974 THE BASELINE WILL SHOW HOW MUCH 1610 01:12:59,041 --> 01:13:01,910 THE DEHYDRATION IS AFFECTING 1611 01:13:01,977 --> 01:13:02,211 PERFORMANCE. 1612 01:13:02,277 --> 01:13:05,981 AND AS YOU KNOW, THERE IS NO 1613 01:13:06,048 --> 01:13:08,417 MEASURABLE IMPACT ON PERFORMANCE 1614 01:13:08,484 --> 01:13:14,723 UNTIL THE SKIN STARTS GETTING 1615 01:13:14,790 --> 01:13:18,360 WARM TO 27, 28 DEGREES. 1616 01:13:18,427 --> 01:13:19,061 SO HYDRATION IS IMPORTANT BUT 1617 01:13:19,128 --> 01:13:29,671 ONLY WHEN YOU HAVE THIS RELATIVE 1618 01:13:32,207 --> 01:13:32,641 HYPOGPHDREMIA. 1619 01:13:32,708 --> 01:13:34,810 NOW, WE ALSO KNOW WORKING IN 1620 01:13:34,877 --> 01:13:36,945 HEAT HAS A LOT OF INDUSTRIAL 1621 01:13:37,012 --> 01:13:40,015 ACID AND WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE 1622 01:13:40,082 --> 01:13:41,817 LITERATURE, IT IS DIFFICULT TO 1623 01:13:41,884 --> 01:13:43,085 SEE MUCH. 1624 01:13:43,152 --> 01:13:44,920 IF YOU LOOK AT THE SPORTS 1625 01:13:44,987 --> 01:13:46,922 MEDICINE STUFF WHERE THEY HAVE 1626 01:13:46,989 --> 01:13:52,227 PEOPLE SHOOTING A BASKETBALL AND 1627 01:13:52,294 --> 01:13:52,895 STUFF, FINISH MORE. 1628 01:13:52,961 --> 01:13:55,864 SO THIS IS THE VISUAL MOTOR 1629 01:13:55,931 --> 01:13:57,733 PACING TASK, THEY LOOK AT THE 1630 01:13:57,800 --> 01:14:00,102 IMPACT OF WHAT HAPPENS NORMALLY, 1631 01:14:00,169 --> 01:14:03,472 WHAT IS THE EFFECT OF DEEP 1632 01:14:03,539 --> 01:14:04,506 STRESS AND DEHYDRATION AND WHAT 1633 01:14:04,573 --> 01:14:08,544 YOU CAN SEE IS IF WE LOOK AT THE 1634 01:14:08,610 --> 01:14:10,679 FIRST FIVE TO TEN MINUTES OF THE 1635 01:14:10,746 --> 01:14:13,849 PATH AND THEN THE LAST 15 TO 20 1636 01:14:13,916 --> 01:14:14,550 MINUTES. 1637 01:14:14,616 --> 01:14:17,352 HERE IS YOUR CONTROL AND IF YOU 1638 01:14:17,419 --> 01:14:23,358 HAVE HEAT STRESS, YOU GET A 1639 01:14:23,425 --> 01:14:27,896 LITTLE REDUCTION IN APATHY, MATT 1640 01:14:27,963 --> 01:14:28,163 SKILLS. 1641 01:14:28,230 --> 01:14:33,936 IF YOU COMBINE THEM, YOU ARE 1642 01:14:34,002 --> 01:14:36,572 STARTING OFF AT THAT HYDRATION. 1643 01:14:36,638 --> 01:14:40,876 SO THERE IS EMERGING LITERATURE 1644 01:14:40,943 --> 01:14:44,680 THAT SHOWS THAT HYDRATION OR 1645 01:14:44,746 --> 01:14:49,918 LACK OF IT, YOU INCREASE HEAT 1646 01:14:49,985 --> 01:14:50,586 DEHYDRATION. 1647 01:14:50,652 --> 01:14:54,690 SO NOW I WILL MOVE ON TO HEAT 1648 01:14:54,756 --> 01:14:55,224 STROKE. 1649 01:14:55,290 --> 01:14:56,625 THEY CONTRIBUTE 9 TO 37 PERCENT 1650 01:14:56,692 --> 01:14:58,493 OF DEATHS DURING HEAT WAVE. 1651 01:14:58,560 --> 01:15:01,964 HOWEVER WHEN YOU LOOK AT ICD 1652 01:15:02,030 --> 01:15:04,366 CODES, IT IS REALLY UNCLEAR 1653 01:15:04,433 --> 01:15:07,903 WHETHER IT IS THE CARDIOVASCULAR 1654 01:15:07,970 --> 01:15:10,539 SYSTEM AND IN FACT THE ICD CODES 1655 01:15:10,606 --> 01:15:11,240 HAVE NOT CAUGHT UP. 1656 01:15:11,306 --> 01:15:16,678 WHAT I WANT TO SHOW YOU IS WHAT 1657 01:15:16,745 --> 01:15:19,181 WE USE, EMERGING IN THE MEDICAL 1658 01:15:19,248 --> 01:15:22,551 LITERATURE, IN THE DOD, GONE TO 1659 01:15:22,618 --> 01:15:24,019 OCCUPATIONAL MEDICINE AND SPORTS 1660 01:15:24,086 --> 01:15:24,286 CENTER. 1661 01:15:24,353 --> 01:15:31,526 AND IT BREAKS UP TWO CATEGORIES, 1662 01:15:31,593 --> 01:15:35,163 HEAT EXHAUSTION, INJURY AND 1663 01:15:35,230 --> 01:15:38,767 STROKE WHEN THE TEMPERATURE IS 1664 01:15:38,834 --> 01:15:40,302 SEVERE. 1665 01:15:40,369 --> 01:15:42,704 SO HEAT EXHAUSTION, YOU HAVE THE 1666 01:15:42,771 --> 01:15:44,773 INABILITY TO SUSTAIN ADEQUATE 1667 01:15:44,840 --> 01:15:46,775 CARDIAC OUTPUT WITH MODERATE 1668 01:15:46,842 --> 01:15:48,210 HIGH BODY TEMPERATURE. 1669 01:15:48,277 --> 01:15:52,114 HEAT INJURY, YOU MIGHT SEE AN 1670 01:15:52,180 --> 01:15:53,849 INCREASE IN CPKS AND THIS IS 1671 01:15:53,916 --> 01:15:55,717 WHERE THE BODY IS AT A HIGH 1672 01:15:55,784 --> 01:15:56,151 TEMPERATURE. 1673 01:15:56,218 --> 01:16:06,695 THEN YOU HAVE HEAT STROKE, 1674 01:16:07,229 --> 01:16:14,836 DISFUNCTION, DELIRIUM, 1675 01:16:14,903 --> 01:16:16,505 CONVULSION, COAGULOPATHY, 1676 01:16:16,571 --> 01:16:17,539 ENDOTOXEMIA, INFLAMMATORY 1677 01:16:17,606 --> 01:16:19,708 RESPONSE SYNDROME AND ORGAN 1678 01:16:19,775 --> 01:16:19,942 FAILURE. 1679 01:16:20,008 --> 01:16:24,579 THEY ALL HAVE TO BE TREATED FOR 1680 01:16:24,646 --> 01:16:25,647 HEAT STROKE. 1681 01:16:25,714 --> 01:16:32,521 THEY CAN LOOK TERRIBLE WITH HEAT 1682 01:16:32,587 --> 01:16:34,089 EXHAUSTION BUT THEY PRESENT 1683 01:16:34,156 --> 01:16:34,389 DIFFERENTLY. 1684 01:16:34,456 --> 01:16:36,825 THERE ARE TWO TYPES OF HEAT 1685 01:16:36,892 --> 01:16:41,830 STROKE, FIRST BEING CLASSIC, THE 1686 01:16:41,897 --> 01:16:43,031 OTHER EXERTIONAL. 1687 01:16:43,098 --> 01:16:45,267 CLASSIC-- THIS IS REVERSED, SOME 1688 01:16:45,334 --> 01:16:47,636 OF THIS IS. 1689 01:16:47,703 --> 01:16:48,070 [LAUGHTER] 1690 01:16:48,136 --> 01:16:50,305 I JUST NOTICED THE MISTAKE. 1691 01:16:50,372 --> 01:16:58,347 THE CLASSIC ARE USUALLY THE 1692 01:16:58,413 --> 01:17:02,317 ELDERLY, OLDER PEOPLE AND THAT 1693 01:17:02,384 --> 01:17:06,888 IMPAIRS THEM IN THE WAY OF 1694 01:17:06,955 --> 01:17:10,158 CHRONIC ILLNESS, MAY BE 1695 01:17:10,225 --> 01:17:14,596 MEDICATION THEY ARE USED. 1696 01:17:14,663 --> 01:17:17,532 WITH EXERTIONAL, IT IS THE 1697 01:17:17,599 --> 01:17:20,002 HEALTHY YOUNG POPULATION, 1698 01:17:20,068 --> 01:17:20,535 GENERALLY ADULTS. 1699 01:17:20,602 --> 01:17:22,437 I GUESS I DID HAVE THAT RIGHT. 1700 01:17:22,504 --> 01:17:24,172 THE WEATHER COULD BE VARIABLE 1701 01:17:24,239 --> 01:17:27,409 BECAUSE IT IS PRODUCING SUCH 1702 01:17:27,476 --> 01:17:28,744 HIGH METABOLIC RATE. 1703 01:17:28,810 --> 01:17:32,581 THE TYPES OF DRUGS THAT MAY BE 1704 01:17:32,647 --> 01:17:36,885 LEADING TO THE LIKELIHOOD, THE 1705 01:17:36,952 --> 01:17:41,757 SWEATING, YOU MAY SEE FEVER 1706 01:17:41,823 --> 01:17:44,026 AFTERWARDS OR HYPOTHERMIA. 1707 01:17:44,092 --> 01:17:54,603 YOU GET ACCUSE RENAL FAILURE, 1708 01:17:54,936 --> 01:17:56,671 RHABDOMYOLYSIS AND DISSEMINATED 1709 01:17:56,738 --> 01:17:57,205 INTRAVASCULAR COAGULATION. 1710 01:17:57,272 --> 01:17:59,875 SO IF YOU LOOK AT THE HEAT 1711 01:17:59,941 --> 01:18:05,447 STROKE, YOU FIND THE EXE RTIONAL 1712 01:18:05,514 --> 01:18:09,718 RESULTS IN GREATER MORTALITY. 1713 01:18:09,785 --> 01:18:15,057 YOU CAN SEE THE LD HERE, THE 1714 01:18:15,123 --> 01:18:17,092 TIME OF HEAT, ABOVE 40 DEGREES, 1715 01:18:17,159 --> 01:18:20,695 YOU CAN SEE THE CLASSIC HERE 1716 01:18:20,762 --> 01:18:27,169 WITH LD50 SO EXERTIONAL HAS MORE 1717 01:18:27,235 --> 01:18:30,472 IMPLICATION ON THE 1718 01:18:30,539 --> 01:18:31,940 PATHOPHYSIOLOGY WITH THE HIGHER 1719 01:18:32,007 --> 01:18:32,340 RATE. 1720 01:18:32,407 --> 01:18:34,443 SO YOU LOOK AT THE PROGRESSION, 1721 01:18:34,509 --> 01:18:37,079 YOU REALLY HAVE TWO THINGS GOING 1722 01:18:37,145 --> 01:18:40,182 ON. 1723 01:18:40,248 --> 01:18:43,051 YOU HAVE THE HIGH HEAT AND 1724 01:18:43,118 --> 01:18:46,254 EXERTION AND THIS RULDZ IN 1725 01:18:46,321 --> 01:18:50,659 HYPOTHERMIA BUT ALSO RESULTS IN 1726 01:18:50,725 --> 01:18:51,126 UNDER-PERFUSION. 1727 01:18:51,193 --> 01:18:53,161 YOU HAVE BLOOD FLOW, THIS CAN 1728 01:18:53,228 --> 01:18:57,032 RESULT IN LOSS OF INTEGRITY IN 1729 01:18:57,099 --> 01:18:59,935 THE LINING, THEN YOU HAVE 1730 01:19:00,001 --> 01:19:02,237 ENDOTOXINS RELEASED, YOU ALSO 1731 01:19:02,304 --> 01:19:05,540 GET REDUCED BLOOD FLOW IN THE 1732 01:19:05,607 --> 01:19:06,007 MUSCLE. 1733 01:19:06,074 --> 01:19:09,211 THESE THINGS ALL WORK TOGETHER. 1734 01:19:09,277 --> 01:19:10,946 HYPERTHERMIA, OF COURSE, CAN 1735 01:19:11,012 --> 01:19:16,318 RESULT ALONE BUT IT IS REALLY 1736 01:19:16,384 --> 01:19:17,452 THE HYPERTHERMIA ISCHEMIA. 1737 01:19:17,519 --> 01:19:21,189 BECAUSE YOU CAN HAVE AN ATHLETE 1738 01:19:21,256 --> 01:19:23,258 RUNNING, EXERCISING AT 40, 1739 01:19:23,325 --> 01:19:25,660 41 DEGREES AND THERE IS REALLY 1740 01:19:25,727 --> 01:19:34,269 NO PROBLEM TILL THEY START 1741 01:19:34,336 --> 01:19:35,203 GETTING PERFUSE. 1742 01:19:35,270 --> 01:19:37,305 WHAT DO WE KNOW? 1743 01:19:37,372 --> 01:19:40,242 WE KNOW THAT DAMAGE CAN OCCUR IN 1744 01:19:40,308 --> 01:19:50,752 A LOT OF PLACES -- BRAIN, 1745 01:19:51,987 --> 01:19:53,722 PRESPIRATORY SYSTEM, MUSCLE AND 1746 01:19:53,788 --> 01:19:54,256 BLOOD. 1747 01:19:54,322 --> 01:19:57,692 THIS IS A STUDY DONE BY 1748 01:19:57,759 --> 01:19:58,660 UNIVERSITY OF INDIANA WHERE THEY 1749 01:19:58,727 --> 01:20:06,468 ARE TRYING TO LOOK AT DIFFERENT 1750 01:20:06,535 --> 01:20:07,602 BIOMARKERS THAT ARE EARLY 1751 01:20:07,669 --> 01:20:08,970 INDICATORS OF HEAT STROKE. 1752 01:20:09,037 --> 01:20:11,406 SO YOU ARE STILL MANAGING THIS 1753 01:20:11,473 --> 01:20:15,043 PERSON AS THESE VALUES COME DOWN 1754 01:20:15,110 --> 01:20:17,779 AND YOU BELIEVE THAT THE SYSTEM 1755 01:20:17,846 --> 01:20:19,181 IS HELPING, MANAGING IT SHORT 1756 01:20:19,247 --> 01:20:19,648 TERM. 1757 01:20:19,714 --> 01:20:23,351 BUT WHAT IS EMERGING IS THERE 1758 01:20:23,418 --> 01:20:24,920 ARE LONG-TERM CONSEQUENCES. 1759 01:20:24,986 --> 01:20:28,657 HEAT STROKE CAN, MUCH LATER IN 1760 01:20:28,723 --> 01:20:30,058 LIFE, AFFECT MORE ORGAN DAMAGE. 1761 01:20:30,125 --> 01:20:33,929 THERE HAVE BEEN AT LEAST A HALF 1762 01:20:33,995 --> 01:20:35,931 DOZEN STUDIES, I WILL SHOW TWO 1763 01:20:35,997 --> 01:20:41,403 HERE, YOU SEE THE CHRONIC KIDNEY 1764 01:20:41,469 --> 01:20:47,576 DISEASE, MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION. 1765 01:20:47,642 --> 01:20:50,645 HERE YOU HAVE THE PRIOR HEAT 1766 01:20:50,712 --> 01:20:53,281 STROKE, THE CONTROL AND YOU CAN 1767 01:20:53,348 --> 01:20:56,618 SEE IT INCREASED IN LONG-TERM 1768 01:20:56,685 --> 01:20:57,185 EFFECTS. 1769 01:20:57,252 --> 01:20:59,621 SO WE DON'T REALLY UNDERSTAND 1770 01:20:59,688 --> 01:21:02,424 WHAT THOSE LONG-TERM EFFECTS ARE 1771 01:21:02,490 --> 01:21:03,825 AND WHAT THE BIOMARKERS 1772 01:21:03,892 --> 01:21:07,028 INDICATORS ARE GOING TO BE THAT 1773 01:21:07,095 --> 01:21:08,563 YOU WILL HAVE DAMAGE LATER. 1774 01:21:08,630 --> 01:21:11,132 HERE ARE SOME STUDIES THAT CAME 1775 01:21:11,199 --> 01:21:13,134 OUT OF THE UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA 1776 01:21:13,201 --> 01:21:23,645 WHERE THEY USED THE MURINE 1777 01:21:25,113 --> 01:21:28,183 MODEL, THE DNA BEFORE THE 1778 01:21:28,250 --> 01:21:30,785 EXERTION HEAT STROKE AND THEN 30 1779 01:21:30,852 --> 01:21:35,790 DAYS AFTER THE EXERTIONAL HEAT 1780 01:21:35,857 --> 01:21:38,994 STROKE, IT IS AFFECTING 1781 01:21:39,060 --> 01:21:40,729 IMMUNOSUPPRESSION AND THERE IS 1782 01:21:40,795 --> 01:21:42,998 ALSO ANOTHER STUDY THAT CAME OUT 1783 01:21:43,064 --> 01:21:46,401 IN THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS THAT 1784 01:21:46,468 --> 01:21:48,803 IT REDUCES MUSCLE FUNCTION 30 1785 01:21:48,870 --> 01:21:49,704 DAYS LATER. 1786 01:21:49,771 --> 01:21:53,775 THERE SEEMS TO BE SOME 1787 01:21:53,842 --> 01:21:55,110 MALADAPTATION AND THOSE 1788 01:21:55,176 --> 01:21:56,678 MECHANISMS ARE NOT FULLY 1789 01:21:56,745 --> 01:21:57,712 UNDERSTOOD. 1790 01:21:57,779 --> 01:21:59,481 HOW THE HEAT STROKE OCCURRED, WE 1791 01:21:59,547 --> 01:22:01,449 HAVE LOOKED AT THE DIFFERENCES 1792 01:22:01,516 --> 01:22:01,816 OF THAT. 1793 01:22:01,883 --> 01:22:04,719 WE HAVE ALWAYS THOUGHT OF HEAT 1794 01:22:04,786 --> 01:22:07,756 STROKE BEING PRESENTABLE. 1795 01:22:07,822 --> 01:22:11,993 THERE IS SOME HUMAN EFFECT WHERE 1796 01:22:12,060 --> 01:22:14,596 THE INDIVIDUAL OVERHEATS, 1797 01:22:14,663 --> 01:22:15,563 PHYSIOLOGICAL COMPENSATION DID 1798 01:22:15,630 --> 01:22:18,466 WELL AND BELIEVED TO BE 1799 01:22:18,533 --> 01:22:18,767 PREVENTABLE. 1800 01:22:18,833 --> 01:22:19,701 WELL, WE'RE STARTING TO 1801 01:22:19,768 --> 01:22:21,670 UNDERSTAND THIS IS NOT ALWAYS 1802 01:22:21,736 --> 01:22:25,006 THE CASE. 1803 01:22:25,073 --> 01:22:27,475 THERE IS THE MULTIPLABLE-HIT 1804 01:22:27,542 --> 01:22:28,576 HYPOTHESIS, MEANING SOMETHING 1805 01:22:28,643 --> 01:22:33,381 HAPPENED THAT DAY THAT MAKES THE 1806 01:22:33,448 --> 01:22:36,318 PERSON MORE AT RISK TO 1807 01:22:36,384 --> 01:22:38,687 SUBSEQUENT HEAT STRESS. 1808 01:22:38,753 --> 01:22:42,257 MINOR INFECTION IN SOME CASES 1809 01:22:42,324 --> 01:22:42,691 AFFECT HYPERTHERMIA. 1810 01:22:42,757 --> 01:22:45,727 A STUDY LOOKING AT MARINE CORPS 1811 01:22:45,794 --> 01:22:48,096 RECRUITS WHO HAD HEAT STROKE 1812 01:22:48,163 --> 01:22:51,066 FOUND THAT THEY HAD VIRAL 1813 01:22:51,132 --> 01:22:53,234 INFECTIONS THE DAY BEFORE. 1814 01:22:53,301 --> 01:22:55,170 THERE IS ONE LABORATORY 1815 01:22:55,236 --> 01:22:59,574 SITUATION WHERE A PERSON HAD 1816 01:22:59,641 --> 01:23:09,284 CELL LIGHTS AND THERE IS ALSO 1817 01:23:09,351 --> 01:23:11,653 EXPOSURE TO HEAT IN HISTORY. 1818 01:23:11,720 --> 01:23:17,225 THE PERSON WHO GOT PEOPLE TO 1819 01:23:17,292 --> 01:23:21,529 THINKING ABOUT THIS, BRUCE 1820 01:23:21,596 --> 01:23:25,834 RECRUITED MARINE CORPS RECRUITS. 1821 01:23:25,900 --> 01:23:28,803 THE PERSON WOULD GO OUT THE SAME 1822 01:23:28,870 --> 01:23:31,072 TIME EVERY DAY, COUPLE TIMES A 1823 01:23:31,139 --> 01:23:31,272 WEEK. 1824 01:23:31,339 --> 01:23:33,274 ONE DAY THEY WENT OUT AND THE 1825 01:23:33,341 --> 01:23:35,243 CORE TEMPERATURES TOOK OFF. 1826 01:23:35,310 --> 01:23:37,612 SO WHAT WAS DIFFERENT ABOUT THAT 1827 01:23:37,679 --> 01:23:38,079 DAY? 1828 01:23:38,146 --> 01:23:40,081 THEY FOUND OUT A DAY BEFORE THEY 1829 01:23:40,148 --> 01:23:41,516 HAD A VIRAL LOAD. 1830 01:23:41,583 --> 01:23:43,985 THEN WHEN YOU START GOING BACK 1831 01:23:44,052 --> 01:23:46,054 AND LOOKING AT THE EPIDEMIOLOGY, 1832 01:23:46,121 --> 01:23:47,589 THERE IS EVIDENCE WHEN YOU LOOK 1833 01:23:47,655 --> 01:23:48,256 AT IT. 1834 01:23:48,323 --> 01:23:51,025 BOTH OF THESE CAME OUT OF ISRAEL 1835 01:23:51,092 --> 01:23:53,294 AND DURING THE FIRST 1836 01:23:53,361 --> 01:23:54,095 10 KILOMETERS OF THE MARCH, 1837 01:23:54,162 --> 01:24:00,735 EARLY IN THE PORTION OF THE 1838 01:24:00,802 --> 01:24:03,271 MARCH OR RUN, SOMETHING IS 1839 01:24:03,338 --> 01:24:04,906 OCCURRING THAT CAUSES THE CORE 1840 01:24:04,973 --> 01:24:08,076 TEMPERATURE TO GO UP OR ONCE IT 1841 01:24:08,143 --> 01:24:12,347 GOES UP, BASICALLY REDUCING THE 1842 01:24:12,414 --> 01:24:13,515 PROTECTIVE MECHANISM. 1843 01:24:13,581 --> 01:24:15,750 SO I TALKED QUITE A BIT ABOUT 1844 01:24:15,817 --> 01:24:19,020 WHAT ARE THE LIMITS, WHAT IS THE 1845 01:24:19,087 --> 01:24:22,223 PHYSIOLOGY, WHAT IS THE 1846 01:24:22,290 --> 01:24:22,757 PATHOPHYSIOLOGY. 1847 01:24:22,824 --> 01:24:26,961 WHAT CAN WE DO FROM WHAT WE KNOW 1848 01:24:27,028 --> 01:24:28,763 TO IMPROVE OCCUPATIONAL ABILITY 1849 01:24:28,830 --> 01:24:31,733 TO MANAGE HEAT STROKE? 1850 01:24:31,800 --> 01:24:34,936 ONE AREA IS CALLED MICRO CLIMATE 1851 01:24:35,003 --> 01:24:37,005 COOLING AND I BELIEVE THE 1852 01:24:37,071 --> 01:24:38,506 SPEAKER BEFORE ME TALKED ABOUT 1853 01:24:38,573 --> 01:24:38,973 THAT. 1854 01:24:39,040 --> 01:24:42,143 THIS IS AN APPROACH BY THE 1855 01:24:42,210 --> 01:24:48,283 DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE AND USED 1856 01:24:48,349 --> 01:24:49,918 OCCUPATIONALLY WHERE YOU HAVE 1857 01:24:49,984 --> 01:24:51,219 MATERIAL THAT PROVIDES COOLING 1858 01:24:51,286 --> 01:24:51,886 OF THE BODY. 1859 01:24:51,953 --> 01:24:55,557 THE PROBLEM WITH THAT IS IT CAN 1860 01:24:55,623 --> 01:25:04,666 OVERCOOL THE BODY, HAS SOME 1861 01:25:04,732 --> 01:25:06,100 DISCOMFORT, DEEING RESTRICTION 1862 01:25:06,167 --> 01:25:07,769 AND OVERCOOLS THE SKIN. 1863 01:25:07,836 --> 01:25:09,938 THE OTHER IS PHYSIOLOGICAL 1864 01:25:10,004 --> 01:25:10,171 SENSORS. 1865 01:25:10,238 --> 01:25:13,341 A LOT OF THEM ARE BULKY BUT MORE 1866 01:25:13,408 --> 01:25:17,378 IMPORTANTLY THEY FOCUS ON THE 1867 01:25:17,445 --> 01:25:19,414 VITAL SIGNS. 1868 01:25:19,481 --> 01:25:21,649 THE NERVOUS SYSTEM IS EXTREMELY 1869 01:25:21,716 --> 01:25:26,421 POOR IN TERMS OF PREDICTING HEAT 1870 01:25:26,488 --> 01:25:26,654 ILLNESS. 1871 01:25:26,721 --> 01:25:28,056 YOU CAN SPEND MILLIONS OF 1872 01:25:28,122 --> 01:25:30,658 DOLLARS DOING THIS KIND OF THING 1873 01:25:30,725 --> 01:25:32,093 BUT THIS REALLY IS NOT THE WAY 1874 01:25:32,160 --> 01:25:33,061 TO GO. 1875 01:25:33,127 --> 01:25:36,664 SO LET'S TALK ABOUT SOME OF THE 1876 01:25:36,731 --> 01:25:39,868 ADVANCEMENTS IN MICRO CLIMATE 1877 01:25:39,934 --> 01:25:40,502 COOLING. 1878 01:25:40,568 --> 01:25:49,377 THERE IS SOMETHING CALLED SKIN 1879 01:25:49,444 --> 01:25:51,513 TEMPERATURE FEEDBACK IN COOLING. 1880 01:25:51,579 --> 01:25:54,282 SO WHEN WE OVERCOOL THE SKIN, 1881 01:25:54,349 --> 01:25:55,383 THAT CAUSES RESTRICTION OF THE 1882 01:25:55,450 --> 01:25:57,752 SKIN SO YOU ARE INCREASING 1883 01:25:57,819 --> 01:25:59,254 RESISTANCE TO HEAT LOSS. 1884 01:25:59,320 --> 01:26:02,557 SO THE TRICK THEN IS TO PROVIDE 1885 01:26:02,624 --> 01:26:04,893 AN AREA OF SKIN TEMPERATURE THAT 1886 01:26:04,959 --> 01:26:09,130 YOU MINIMIZE THE RESISTANCE AND 1887 01:26:09,197 --> 01:26:09,898 MAINTAIN CARDIOVASCULAR 1888 01:26:09,964 --> 01:26:10,164 STABILITY. 1889 01:26:10,231 --> 01:26:16,004 THESE PEOPLE ARE WORKING AN 1890 01:26:16,070 --> 01:26:18,673 DIFFERENT TASKS, THE SKIN 1891 01:26:18,740 --> 01:26:19,974 TEMPERATURE-DRIVEN FEEDBACK LOOP 1892 01:26:20,041 --> 01:26:21,776 AND YOU CAN MAINTAIN THE SKIN 1893 01:26:21,843 --> 01:26:22,610 TEMPERATURE. 1894 01:26:22,677 --> 01:26:29,217 IF YOU MAINTAIN IN THIS UNDER 1895 01:26:29,284 --> 01:26:32,820 33 DEGREESS IN A TASK, YOU 1896 01:26:32,887 --> 01:26:33,588 REDUCE CARDIOVASCULAR STRAIN. 1897 01:26:33,655 --> 01:26:37,358 THIS ALSO HAS THE BENEFIT OF 1898 01:26:37,425 --> 01:26:38,493 REDUCING POWER, LIKE IF SOMEONE 1899 01:26:38,560 --> 01:26:39,360 IS WORKING. 1900 01:26:39,427 --> 01:26:43,398 SO THE IDEA IS DEPENDING ON 1901 01:26:43,464 --> 01:26:44,899 WHERE YOU EXERCISE, THE MUSCLES 1902 01:26:44,966 --> 01:26:47,101 HEAT UP AND IF YOU MOVE THIS 1903 01:26:47,168 --> 01:26:50,605 SYSTEM AROUND, YOU CAN STAY 1904 01:26:50,672 --> 01:26:53,174 WITHIN THE LOOP AND DECREASE 1905 01:26:53,241 --> 01:26:55,109 COMFORT AND THIS IS NOT ONLY 1906 01:26:55,176 --> 01:27:01,349 WITHIN THE CONTROL SYSTEM BUT 1907 01:27:01,416 --> 01:27:10,224 EMERGING IN THE MERCURIAL 1908 01:27:10,291 --> 01:27:10,725 ENVIRONMENT. 1909 01:27:10,792 --> 01:27:18,733 SO THE NEXT ONE IS THE 1910 01:27:18,800 --> 01:27:22,470 ADVANCEMENT IN WEARABLE 1911 01:27:22,537 --> 01:27:23,271 PHYSIOLOGICAL MONITORING. 1912 01:27:23,338 --> 01:27:25,406 ROUGHLY, YOU MEASURE THE PTT 1913 01:27:25,473 --> 01:27:30,912 MEASURES, YOU HAVE AN ANA LOG, 1914 01:27:30,979 --> 01:27:33,081 HE CAN APPLY THE MACHINE 1915 01:27:33,147 --> 01:27:35,483 LEARNING AND PREDICT AHEAD WHEN 1916 01:27:35,550 --> 01:27:38,086 YOU ARE GOING TO HAVE STRESS TO 1917 01:27:38,152 --> 01:27:39,854 THE POINT OF COLLAPSE SO IF YOU 1918 01:27:39,921 --> 01:27:44,492 USE THIS TO IDENTIFY TRAUMA 1919 01:27:44,559 --> 01:27:47,061 PATIENTS, YOU KNOW WHEN THAT 1920 01:27:47,128 --> 01:27:47,495 WILL HAPPEN. 1921 01:27:47,562 --> 01:27:49,197 YOU CAN ALSO DO THIS WITH HEAT 1922 01:27:49,263 --> 01:27:53,067 AND SOME OF THE APPROACHES ARE, 1923 01:27:53,134 --> 01:28:00,074 SINCE YOU CAN'T ALWAYS GET TO A 1924 01:28:00,141 --> 01:28:02,010 FINGER, GOING TO EEG AND THIS IS 1925 01:28:02,076 --> 01:28:04,445 ONE OF THE MEASURES TO LOOK AT 1926 01:28:04,512 --> 01:28:07,115 THE IMPACT OF HEAT STRESS. 1927 01:28:07,181 --> 01:28:09,917 SO LOOKING AT NOTE ONLY ARTERIAL 1928 01:28:09,984 --> 01:28:12,553 PRESSURE WAVE FORMS BUT ALSO 1929 01:28:12,620 --> 01:28:13,821 CENTRAL DYNAMICS AND COMBINE 1930 01:28:13,888 --> 01:28:15,823 THIS WITH MACHINE LEARNING. 1931 01:28:15,890 --> 01:28:17,492 THIS SHOWS GREAT PROMISE. 1932 01:28:17,558 --> 01:28:21,396 IN FACT, IF YOU LOOK AT JUST 1933 01:28:21,462 --> 01:28:22,997 SIMPLE PHYSIOLOGICAL MEASURES 1934 01:28:23,064 --> 01:28:25,133 SUCH AS MEASURING THINGS THAT 1935 01:28:25,199 --> 01:28:27,735 ARE DONE IN HEART RATE, HERE IS 1936 01:28:27,802 --> 01:28:30,505 A STUDY RECENTLY TON AND IT TOOK 1937 01:28:30,571 --> 01:28:32,907 A BUNCH OF -- HUNDREDS OF PIECES 1938 01:28:32,974 --> 01:28:35,076 OF DATA THE MILITARY HAD 1939 01:28:35,143 --> 01:28:36,744 COLLECTED WITH INDIVIDUALS DOING 1940 01:28:36,811 --> 01:28:38,379 WARM WEATHER BACKPACK TRAINING, 1941 01:28:38,446 --> 01:28:39,213 ALL RIGHT? 1942 01:28:39,280 --> 01:28:40,515 AND THERE WERE SEVERAL 1943 01:28:40,581 --> 01:28:41,749 INDIVIDUALS THAT HAD HEAT 1944 01:28:41,816 --> 01:28:42,183 STROKES. 1945 01:28:42,250 --> 01:28:45,553 GOING BACK AND LOOKING AT THIS, 1946 01:28:45,620 --> 01:28:48,322 THEY MEASURED HEART RATE AND THE 1947 01:28:48,389 --> 01:28:51,826 BEST THEY COULD DO WAS PREDICT 1948 01:28:51,893 --> 01:28:54,195 THE TIME OF DAY. 1949 01:28:54,262 --> 01:28:59,434 BUT IF YOU TAKE THESE CHANGES 1950 01:28:59,500 --> 01:29:03,638 AND LOOK AT THE CHANGE IN 1951 01:29:03,705 --> 01:29:05,373 METABOLIC RATE, THESE PEOPLE 1952 01:29:05,440 --> 01:29:07,442 WERE CHANGING AND THEN LOOKING 1953 01:29:07,508 --> 01:29:10,311 WITH MACHINE LEARNING ON THIS 1954 01:29:10,378 --> 01:29:13,181 PREDICTION, YOU ARE ABLE TO 1955 01:29:13,247 --> 01:29:14,382 PREDICT AHEAD 30, 60 MINUTES 1956 01:29:14,449 --> 01:29:14,615 BEFORE. 1957 01:29:14,682 --> 01:29:19,487 SO THIS IDEA OF USING 1958 01:29:19,554 --> 01:29:21,723 CARDIOVASCULAR SENSORS, MACHINE 1959 01:29:21,789 --> 01:29:24,959 LEARNING AND CHANGING THE 1960 01:29:25,026 --> 01:29:27,929 EXERCISE AND HEAT, HAS A LOT OF 1961 01:29:27,995 --> 01:29:32,366 PROMISE WITH THE LITERATURE AND 1962 01:29:32,433 --> 01:29:34,469 SO AT EARLY PREDICTION THE HEAT 1963 01:29:34,535 --> 01:29:36,504 STROKE, YOU TAKE THESE PEOPLE 1964 01:29:36,571 --> 01:29:40,942 OUT AND THIS IS WHERE WE SHOULD 1965 01:29:41,008 --> 01:29:43,444 BE GOING WITH THE MONITORS. 1966 01:29:43,511 --> 01:29:45,580 SO FINAL THOUGHTS, THERE ARE 1967 01:29:45,646 --> 01:29:52,954 MANY MISCONCEPTIONS TO THE 1968 01:29:53,020 --> 01:29:54,122 LITERATURE THAT 1969 01:29:54,188 --> 01:29:54,989 MEMORYOREGULATORY TEMPERATURE IS 1970 01:29:55,056 --> 01:30:00,461 MORE THAN JUST THE HEAT 1971 01:30:00,528 --> 01:30:01,295 MEASURED. 1972 01:30:01,362 --> 01:30:10,471 I THINK WE NEED MORE WORK ON 1973 01:30:10,538 --> 01:30:15,610 AND UNDERSTANDING OF THE 1974 01:30:15,676 --> 01:30:16,144 MISCONCEPTION. 1975 01:30:16,210 --> 01:30:22,717 AS WE LOOK TO THE FUTURE, HEAT 1976 01:30:22,784 --> 01:30:25,787 STROKE MANAGEMENT, WEARABLE 1977 01:30:25,853 --> 01:30:26,888 AIDS, PERSONAL COOLING, 1978 01:30:26,954 --> 01:30:28,756 BIOMARKERS OF HEAT ILLNESS 1979 01:30:28,823 --> 01:30:31,325 RECOVERY AND RETURN TO WORK 1980 01:30:31,392 --> 01:30:32,059 CRITERIA. 1981 01:30:32,126 --> 01:30:36,898 WHERE A PERSON IS ABLE TO RETURN 1982 01:30:36,964 --> 01:30:39,066 AND CERTAINLY CUSTOMIZE THAT 1983 01:30:39,133 --> 01:30:40,535 ADAPTATION PROGRAM. 1984 01:30:40,601 --> 01:30:43,004 WE FOCUSED ON ATHLETES AND 1985 01:30:43,070 --> 01:30:44,639 WORKERS BUT NOT ON THE 1986 01:30:44,705 --> 01:30:45,473 VULNERABLE POPULATION. 1987 01:30:45,540 --> 01:30:47,842 AND WE HAVE ALWAYS FOCUSED ON 1988 01:30:47,909 --> 01:30:49,210 REDUCING STRAIN. 1989 01:30:49,277 --> 01:30:57,685 HOW DO WE REDUCE STRAIN AND 1990 01:30:57,752 --> 01:30:58,252 PROTECTION AIDS OPTIMALLY? 1991 01:30:58,319 --> 01:31:03,724 I THINK WE DO THIS BY 1992 01:31:03,791 --> 01:31:05,726 CONSIDERING IT ALTOGETHER. 1993 01:31:05,793 --> 01:31:07,995 WE NEED CLEAR IDENTIFICATION 1994 01:31:08,062 --> 01:31:11,766 FROM DIFFERENT ORGANIZATIONS 1995 01:31:11,833 --> 01:31:13,501 WORKING TOGETHER ON THE 1996 01:31:13,568 --> 01:31:16,537 POPULATION AND BRINGING IN 1997 01:31:16,604 --> 01:31:16,838 TECHNOLOGY. 1998 01:31:16,904 --> 01:31:18,039 THANK YOU. 1999 01:31:18,105 --> 01:31:21,609 >>> THANK YOU, THANK YOU VERY 2000 01:31:21,676 --> 01:31:22,443 MUCH FOR THAT. 2001 01:31:22,510 --> 01:31:24,912 WE HAVE A FLOOD OF QUESTIONS SO 2002 01:31:24,979 --> 01:31:31,519 IT MIGHT BE BEST IF BOTH OF YOU, 2003 01:31:31,586 --> 01:31:34,355 MICHAEL HAS AN INTERESTING 2004 01:31:34,422 --> 01:31:38,559 QUESTION OF IS THE SAUNA GOOD 2005 01:31:38,626 --> 01:31:41,262 FOR YOU? 2006 01:31:41,329 --> 01:31:42,196 >> MAYBE. 2007 01:31:42,263 --> 01:31:44,699 IT CAN BE DISASTEROUS LIKE 2008 01:31:44,765 --> 01:31:45,199 ANYTHING. 2009 01:31:45,266 --> 01:31:47,435 THERE IS A STUDY OUT OF THE 2010 01:31:47,501 --> 01:31:50,605 UNIVERSITY OF OREGON IN A HEAT 2011 01:31:50,671 --> 01:31:55,343 CASE THAT SHOWS HEAT EXPOSURE 2012 01:31:55,409 --> 01:31:56,110 WITH DIABETES. 2013 01:31:56,177 --> 01:31:59,747 SO IT MAY BE SOME HEAT EXPOSURE 2014 01:31:59,814 --> 01:32:01,883 HAS SOME BENEFIT, OKAY? 2015 01:32:01,949 --> 01:32:05,386 NOW THE SAUNA, YOU HAVE A 2016 01:32:05,453 --> 01:32:07,455 CARDIOVASCULAR PROBLEM, YOU 2017 01:32:07,521 --> 01:32:08,256 CAN'T THERMOREGULATE IN THE 2018 01:32:08,322 --> 01:32:15,730 SHAWN I SAUNA SO A LITTLE IS 2019 01:32:15,796 --> 01:32:19,200 GOOD BUT IF YOU CAN'T 2020 01:32:19,267 --> 01:32:19,867 THERMOREGULATE, NO. 2021 01:32:19,934 --> 01:32:25,873 >> AND ANOTHER QUESTION FOR YOU. 2022 01:32:25,940 --> 01:32:27,541 DURING ANOTHER -- IN THIS PART 2023 01:32:27,608 --> 01:32:31,612 OF THE WORLD SHOULD WE ALTER OUR 2024 01:32:31,679 --> 01:32:34,048 CLOTHING AND DRESS MORE LIKE IN 2025 01:32:34,115 --> 01:32:34,715 THE MIDDLE EAST? 2026 01:32:34,782 --> 01:32:36,717 >> OBVIOUSLY YOU WANT TO ADOPT 2027 01:32:36,784 --> 01:32:38,052 THE CLOTHING. 2028 01:32:38,119 --> 01:32:42,123 THE MIDDLE EAST, YOU NOTICE THEY 2029 01:32:42,189 --> 01:32:44,525 DON'T WEAR HEAVY CLOTHING 2030 01:32:44,592 --> 01:32:46,894 OUTSIDE BECAUSE THE RADIANT HEAT 2031 01:32:46,961 --> 01:32:49,664 LOAD IS SO HIGH SO THAT MAY BE 2032 01:32:49,730 --> 01:32:51,165 DIFFERENT THAN IN THE TROPICAL 2033 01:32:51,232 --> 01:32:56,270 ENVIRONMENT WHERE YOU WANT TO 2034 01:32:56,337 --> 01:32:57,738 MAXIMIZE RADIATION. 2035 01:32:57,805 --> 01:32:58,806 SO CERTAINLY THERE IS SOME WORK 2036 01:32:58,873 --> 01:33:05,279 TO BE DONE IN THE WAY OF HUMAN 2037 01:33:05,346 --> 01:33:06,380 EPIDEMIOLOGY AND BIOPHYSICS. 2038 01:33:06,447 --> 01:33:08,716 >> IS IT POSSIBLE, THE QUESTION, 2039 01:33:08,783 --> 01:33:12,386 CAN THE SCIENCE OF DOWN SIDING 2040 01:33:12,453 --> 01:33:15,222 GLOBAL FORECAST, CAN IT BE 2041 01:33:15,289 --> 01:33:17,458 ADAPTED TO BE CONSISTENT WITH 2042 01:33:17,525 --> 01:33:18,859 SOME PUBLIC HEALTH POLICY, FOR 2043 01:33:18,926 --> 01:33:20,828 EXAMPLE, IS THERE A MODEL THAT 2044 01:33:20,895 --> 01:33:26,600 COULD COME UP WITH SAYING THAT 2045 01:33:26,667 --> 01:33:30,604 SOMETHING IS GOING TO HAPPEN IN 2046 01:33:30,671 --> 01:33:33,040 FIVE YEARS, COVERING A 5-MILE 2047 01:33:33,107 --> 01:33:37,912 AREA, IS IT POSSIBLE TO TAKE THE 2048 01:33:37,979 --> 01:33:39,280 TYPE OF FORECASTING INFORMATION 2049 01:33:39,347 --> 01:33:42,817 THAT YOU HAVE AND MODEL IT IN 2050 01:33:42,883 --> 01:33:44,418 SOME WAY THAT RELATES IT 2051 01:33:44,485 --> 01:33:47,688 POTENTIALLY TO PUBLIC HEALTH 2052 01:33:47,755 --> 01:33:48,189 POLICY? 2053 01:33:48,255 --> 01:33:53,494 >> NO I THINK IN 2054 01:33:53,561 --> 01:33:55,096 >> SO -- SO I THINK IN GENERAL 2055 01:33:55,162 --> 01:33:56,864 THE ANSWER IS YES ALTHOUGH THE 2056 01:33:56,931 --> 01:33:59,200 SPECIFIC WAYS IT IS DONE WILL 2057 01:33:59,266 --> 01:34:00,735 DEPEND ON LIMITATIONS AND OUR 2058 01:34:00,801 --> 01:34:04,071 ABILITY TO GET REGIONAL 2059 01:34:04,138 --> 01:34:04,538 INFORMATION. 2060 01:34:04,605 --> 01:34:07,174 WE TEND TO BE MORE CONFIDENT 2061 01:34:07,241 --> 01:34:09,076 ABOUT THE LARGER SCALES AND LONG 2062 01:34:09,143 --> 01:34:11,846 R TIME SCALES AS WELL AS WHAT 2063 01:34:11,912 --> 01:34:13,280 THE LEVERS ARE ON THE PUBLIC 2064 01:34:13,347 --> 01:34:13,581 POLICY ARE. 2065 01:34:13,647 --> 01:34:15,649 OFTEN THERE IS A DISCONNECT 2066 01:34:15,716 --> 01:34:17,051 THERE AND I THINK IN ORDER 2067 01:34:17,118 --> 01:34:19,320 REALLY TO MAKE PROGRESS IN THAT 2068 01:34:19,387 --> 01:34:22,690 AREA, IT DOES INVOLVE SORT OF 2069 01:34:22,757 --> 01:34:24,859 PRACTITIONERS IN BOTH 2070 01:34:24,925 --> 01:34:26,027 DISCIPLINES WORKING SIDE-BY-SIDE 2071 01:34:26,093 --> 01:34:27,895 OVER AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME 2072 01:34:27,962 --> 01:34:31,065 TO CREATE THAT BRIDGE AND 2073 01:34:31,132 --> 01:34:31,665 LANGUAGE. 2074 01:34:31,732 --> 01:34:35,002 SO WE HAVE BEEN VERY SUCCESSFUL 2075 01:34:35,069 --> 01:34:39,507 AT PRINT TON. PRINCETON. 2076 01:34:39,573 --> 01:34:43,277 WE HAVE A GROUP WORKING ON 2077 01:34:43,344 --> 01:34:44,412 CLIMATE AND INFECTIOUS DISEASE 2078 01:34:44,478 --> 01:34:46,580 BUT IN ORDER TO GET THERE IT 2079 01:34:46,647 --> 01:34:48,916 TOOK MULTIPLE YEARS SITTING NEXT 2080 01:34:48,983 --> 01:34:53,921 TO EACH OTHER AND UNDERSTANDING 2081 01:34:53,988 --> 01:34:55,656 THE CONTEXT. 2082 01:34:55,723 --> 01:34:58,025 >> I WAS IMPRESSED, IF MY 2083 01:34:58,092 --> 01:35:01,829 NUMBERS ARE CORRECT, THAT AN 2084 01:35:01,896 --> 01:35:04,632 ARMY PERSONNEL UNDERGOING A RUN 2085 01:35:04,698 --> 01:35:08,069 UNDER NORMAL CONDITIONS GETS THE 2086 01:35:08,135 --> 01:35:11,839 BODY TEMPERATURE UP TO 104, 2087 01:35:11,906 --> 01:35:12,940 105 DEGREES? 2088 01:35:13,007 --> 01:35:13,908 >> WELL, THEY ARE PROBABLY 2089 01:35:13,974 --> 01:35:17,978 RUNNING IN HOT WEATHER TO BEGIN 2090 01:35:18,045 --> 01:35:18,179 WITH. 2091 01:35:18,245 --> 01:35:22,983 IF YOU ARE ACCLIMATIZED AND YOU 2092 01:35:23,050 --> 01:35:28,989 ARE FIT, YOU KNOW, IF YOU GO 2093 01:35:29,056 --> 01:35:31,192 BACK TO SID ROBINSON AT THE 2094 01:35:31,258 --> 01:35:33,627 UNIVERSITY OF INDIANA 2095 01:35:33,694 --> 01:35:39,100 LABORATORY, GET PEOPLE RUNNING, 2096 01:35:39,166 --> 01:35:42,736 THEY GET PEOPLE UP TO 2097 01:35:42,803 --> 01:35:43,204 41 DEGREES. 2098 01:35:43,270 --> 01:35:46,474 THEY HAD PEOPLE RUNNING 2099 01:35:46,540 --> 01:35:49,810 MARATHONS AND AGAIN THERE IS A 2100 01:35:49,877 --> 01:35:53,180 LITTLE BIAS BUT 41, 41-1/2. 2101 01:35:53,247 --> 01:35:57,184 SO THERE ARE PEOPLE THAT EASILY, 2102 01:35:57,251 --> 01:35:58,219 YEAH. 2103 01:35:58,285 --> 01:36:01,555 IN A LABORATORY YOU ARE KIND OF 2104 01:36:01,622 --> 01:36:04,458 LIMITED TO 39-1/2 BECAUSE WE 2105 01:36:04,525 --> 01:36:06,327 KNOW BELOW 40 DEGREES, YOU ARE 2106 01:36:06,393 --> 01:36:08,996 NOT GOING TO HAVE HEAT STROKE SO 2107 01:36:09,063 --> 01:36:10,865 WE CAN DO ALMOST ANYTHING WE 2108 01:36:10,931 --> 01:36:14,702 WANT TO IF WE KEPT IT BELOW 2109 01:36:14,768 --> 01:36:15,002 40 DEGREES. 2110 01:36:15,069 --> 01:36:18,172 AND YOU KNOW ROUTINELY, I COULD 2111 01:36:18,239 --> 01:36:21,542 SHOW EXPERIMENTS, WHERE WE COULD 2112 01:36:21,609 --> 01:36:24,078 INDUCE HEAT EXHAUSTION. 2113 01:36:24,145 --> 01:36:26,147 WITH HEAT EXHAUSTION, YOU GET 2114 01:36:26,213 --> 01:36:28,983 INTO THIS OCCUPATIONAL STUFF AND 2115 01:36:29,049 --> 01:36:30,584 LOOK AT HOW HIGH THE CORE 2116 01:36:30,651 --> 01:36:33,621 TEMPERATURE IS, IT IS A BELL 2117 01:36:33,687 --> 01:36:33,954 SHAPED CURVE. 2118 01:36:34,021 --> 01:36:35,456 YOU KNOW, THE MEANS IN THE 2119 01:36:35,523 --> 01:36:37,091 MIDDLE AND YOU HAVE PEOPLE THAT 2120 01:36:37,158 --> 01:36:41,795 ARE FALLING DOWN AT 38.5 BECAUSE 2121 01:36:41,862 --> 01:36:43,497 THE CARDIOVASCULAR SYSTEM CAN'T 2122 01:36:43,564 --> 01:36:45,699 HANDLE IT AND THEN YOU HAVE SOME 2123 01:36:45,766 --> 01:36:46,934 HIGHER ONES. 2124 01:36:47,001 --> 01:36:49,170 SO YOU NEED TO DO MORE THAN JUST 2125 01:36:49,236 --> 01:36:50,404 SETTING GUIDANCE AND LIMITS 2126 01:36:50,471 --> 01:36:51,906 BECAUSE THEY ARE TOO 2127 01:36:51,972 --> 01:36:53,908 CONSERVATIVE FOR SOME PEOPLE AND 2128 01:36:53,974 --> 01:36:55,709 TOO AGGRESSIVE FOR OTHERS SO YOU 2129 01:36:55,776 --> 01:37:01,248 NEED TO GO TO AN 2130 01:37:01,315 --> 01:37:03,450 INDIVIDUALIZATION WAY TO MONITOR 2131 01:37:03,517 --> 01:37:04,718 PEOPLE WHERE THEY ARE AND SAY 2132 01:37:04,785 --> 01:37:08,122 WHO IS AT STRESS AND WHO IS NOT 2133 01:37:08,189 --> 01:37:09,056 AND THEN GET THOSE ATTENTION. 2134 01:37:09,123 --> 01:37:10,724 >> WE ALSO HAVE -- BY THE WAY, 2135 01:37:10,791 --> 01:37:16,864 THERE IS A MICROPHONE HERE FOR 2136 01:37:16,931 --> 01:37:20,467 THOSE IN THE ROOM ASKING 2137 01:37:20,534 --> 01:37:21,168 QUESTIONS. 2138 01:37:21,235 --> 01:37:25,206 HOW HIGH DO YOU THINK THE CO2 2139 01:37:25,272 --> 01:37:27,908 LEVEL CAN GO WITHOUT DEVELOPING 2140 01:37:27,975 --> 01:37:32,279 WHAT WE MIGHT CALL, I DON'T 2141 01:37:32,346 --> 01:37:37,484 KNOW, SEVERE ENVIRONMENTAL 2142 01:37:37,551 --> 01:37:38,552 TOXICITY? 2143 01:37:38,619 --> 01:37:42,056 >> SO I THINK WE'RE NOT TALKING 2144 01:37:42,122 --> 01:37:44,725 ABOUT SORT OF INCREASING 2145 01:37:44,792 --> 01:37:45,793 GREENHOUSE GASSES ANY TIME IN 2146 01:37:45,859 --> 01:37:47,895 THE NEAR TERM WHERE OUR ABILITY 2147 01:37:47,962 --> 01:37:50,397 TO BREATHE WOULD BE IMPACTED IN 2148 01:37:50,464 --> 01:37:51,599 ANY WAY. 2149 01:37:51,665 --> 01:37:53,067 NOW, ONE AREA WHERE THERE MIGHT 2150 01:37:53,133 --> 01:37:56,604 BE SOMETHING THAT WOULD RESEMBLE 2151 01:37:56,670 --> 01:38:01,375 TOXICITY IS IN THE OCEAN, ONE OF 2152 01:38:01,442 --> 01:38:03,611 SORT OF ABOUT -- WELL, ANYWHERE 2153 01:38:03,677 --> 01:38:06,280 FROM A THIRD TO HALF CO 2154 01:38:06,347 --> 01:38:09,049 EMISSIONS END UP IN THE OCEAN 2155 01:38:09,116 --> 01:38:11,218 AND THEY SORT OF DECREASE THE 2156 01:38:11,285 --> 01:38:21,829 PH, MAKE THE OCEANS MORE ACIDIC 2157 01:38:22,396 --> 01:38:26,800 WHEN CO2 IS ABSORBED IN WATER SO 2158 01:38:26,867 --> 01:38:29,837 THEN SHELLS HAVE TO USE MORE OF 2159 01:38:29,903 --> 01:38:32,506 THEIR ENERGY TO FORM CELLS AND 2160 01:38:32,573 --> 01:38:34,241 THERE ARE TRADEOFFS IN OTHER 2161 01:38:34,308 --> 01:38:36,243 THINGS THEY WANT TO USE ENERGY 2162 01:38:36,310 --> 01:38:36,410 FOR. 2163 01:38:36,477 --> 01:38:40,581 BUT AS FAR AS BREATHING, WE'RE 2164 01:38:40,648 --> 01:38:43,250 NOT SEEING THESE LIMITS ON 2165 01:38:43,317 --> 01:38:45,386 AVAILABILITY, AT LEAST NOT ANY 2166 01:38:45,452 --> 01:38:51,458 TIME IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. 2167 01:38:51,525 --> 01:38:52,126 >> WE HAVE A QUESTION? 2168 01:38:52,192 --> 01:38:54,628 >> I HAVE A COUPLE OF QUESTIONS, 2169 01:38:54,695 --> 01:38:56,030 ONE FOR GABRIEL AND ONE FOR 2170 01:38:56,096 --> 01:38:56,430 MIKE. 2171 01:38:56,497 --> 01:39:02,236 SO I WILL START WITH PERHAPS A 2172 01:39:02,303 --> 01:39:03,470 NAIVE QUESTION FOR GABRIEL AND 2173 01:39:03,537 --> 01:39:05,239 THAT IS YOU TALKED ABOUT THE 2174 01:39:05,306 --> 01:39:08,208 HIGH PRESSURE AREAS ASSOCIATED 2175 01:39:08,275 --> 01:39:08,709 WITH HEAT WAVES. 2176 01:39:08,776 --> 01:39:11,812 IS THERE ANYTHING THAT WE COULD 2177 01:39:11,879 --> 01:39:16,483 DO, YOU KNOW, LIKE IN TERMS OF 2178 01:39:16,550 --> 01:39:19,219 GETTING AN AIRPLANE THROUGH IT, 2179 01:39:19,286 --> 01:39:20,688 SEED THE CLOUDS, WHATEVER, SOME 2180 01:39:20,754 --> 01:39:22,723 KIND OF INTERVENTION THAT WE 2181 01:39:22,790 --> 01:39:25,492 COULD DO THAT WOULD DISRUPT THE 2182 01:39:25,559 --> 01:39:26,760 HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT AND 2183 01:39:26,827 --> 01:39:30,297 GET RID OF THE HEAT WAVE OR AT 2184 01:39:30,364 --> 01:39:31,765 LEAST SHORTEN IT. 2185 01:39:31,832 --> 01:39:34,068 >> THE IDEA OF WEATHER 2186 01:39:34,134 --> 01:39:34,501 MODIFICATION, RIGHT? 2187 01:39:34,568 --> 01:39:36,737 IT IS ONE THAT HAS BEEN EXPLORED 2188 01:39:36,804 --> 01:39:40,374 A LOT. 2189 01:39:40,441 --> 01:39:48,816 YOU KNOW, MID-20sTH CENTURY, 2190 01:39:48,882 --> 01:39:50,951 KURT VONOGUT LOOKED INTO SILVER 2191 01:39:51,018 --> 01:39:53,921 FOR CLOUD SEEDING. 2192 01:39:53,987 --> 01:39:55,789 FOR A BLOCKING HIGH, I THINK IT 2193 01:39:55,856 --> 01:39:57,558 WOULD BE DIFFICULT TO FIND A WAY 2194 01:39:57,624 --> 01:39:59,326 TO MODIFY IT. 2195 01:39:59,393 --> 01:40:01,862 WE'RE TALKING ABOUT AN AREA THE 2196 01:40:01,929 --> 01:40:05,432 SIZE OF A CONTINENT SO THE 2197 01:40:05,499 --> 01:40:09,436 ENERGY REQUIRED AND ABILITY TO 2198 01:40:09,503 --> 01:40:10,971 CONCENTRATE THE ENERGY IN THE 2199 01:40:11,038 --> 01:40:13,107 ATMOSPHERE IN THE RIGHT WAY 2200 01:40:13,173 --> 01:40:13,640 ISN'T THERE YET. 2201 01:40:13,707 --> 01:40:15,976 THERE IS AN AREA OF RESEARCH 2202 01:40:16,043 --> 01:40:18,011 WHICH IS EXPLORING THE 2203 01:40:18,078 --> 01:40:21,081 POSSIBILITY OF USING SOLAR 2204 01:40:21,148 --> 01:40:22,249 RADIATION MANAGEMENT TO MODIFY 2205 01:40:22,316 --> 01:40:24,351 THE AMOUNT AND TYPE OF SUNLIGHT 2206 01:40:24,418 --> 01:40:27,321 THAT IS REACHING THE EARTH OR 2207 01:40:27,388 --> 01:40:30,991 STAYING IN THE ATMOSPHERE. 2208 01:40:31,058 --> 01:40:34,395 THE WAY I LOOK AT IT IS AS A 2209 01:40:34,461 --> 01:40:34,661 PARACHUTE. 2210 01:40:34,728 --> 01:40:36,563 IF WE FIND OUT IN A COUPLE OF 2211 01:40:36,630 --> 01:40:38,766 DECADES THAT EFFECTS OF GLOBAL 2212 01:40:38,832 --> 01:40:40,734 WARMING ARE MORE THAN SOCIETY 2213 01:40:40,801 --> 01:40:42,569 CAN BEAR, YOU MIGHT WANT TO 2214 01:40:42,636 --> 01:40:44,738 CONSIDER -- AND THERE ARE IDEAS 2215 01:40:44,805 --> 01:40:46,707 OUT THERE ANYWHERE FROM STRING 2216 01:40:46,774 --> 01:40:50,277 LING DUST IN THE STRATOSPHERE, 2217 01:40:50,344 --> 01:40:52,679 SEEDING CLOUDS TO MAKE THEM MORE 2218 01:40:52,746 --> 01:40:54,515 REFLECTIVE, TO PUTTING MIRRORS 2219 01:40:54,581 --> 01:40:56,517 IN SPACE THAT MIGHT CHANGE THE 2220 01:40:56,583 --> 01:40:57,518 AMOUNT OF SUNLIGHT. 2221 01:40:57,584 --> 01:40:59,620 THESE ARE IDEAS OUT THERE AND AS 2222 01:40:59,686 --> 01:41:01,221 A COMMUNITY WE'RE TRYING TO 2223 01:41:01,288 --> 01:41:03,290 EXPLORE THEM AND UNDERSTAND THE 2224 01:41:03,357 --> 01:41:05,592 LIMITATIONS AND WHAT UNINTENDED 2225 01:41:05,659 --> 01:41:07,661 SIDE EFFECTS AND I THINK RIGHT 2226 01:41:07,728 --> 01:41:10,397 NOW THE EXTENT TO WHICH WE HAVE 2227 01:41:10,464 --> 01:41:12,933 GOOD OPTIONS AND BAD OPTIONS IS 2228 01:41:13,000 --> 01:41:14,201 NOT YET CLEAR, ALL RIGHT? 2229 01:41:14,268 --> 01:41:17,571 I THINK ALL OPTIONS ARE STILL 2230 01:41:17,638 --> 01:41:19,206 SUBOPTIMAL AT THIS STAGE. 2231 01:41:19,273 --> 01:41:21,842 >> AND I HAVE A PRACTICAL 2232 01:41:21,909 --> 01:41:23,777 QUESTION I GUESS FOR MIKE AND 2233 01:41:23,844 --> 01:41:26,513 THAT IS YOU WERE TALKING A BIT 2234 01:41:26,580 --> 01:41:32,286 ABOUT THE SORT OF LOW-TECH WAYS 2235 01:41:32,352 --> 01:41:39,193 OF SCREENING PEOPLE FOR 2236 01:41:39,259 --> 01:41:40,561 SUSCEPTIBILITY TO HEAT STROKE. 2237 01:41:40,627 --> 01:41:44,164 AND MY OWN EXPERIENCE WITH THIS 2238 01:41:44,231 --> 01:41:47,201 IN TEXAS, PEOPLE WE SAW COMING 2239 01:41:47,267 --> 01:41:51,104 INTO THE MERGES REROOM WITH HEAT 2240 01:41:51,171 --> 01:41:53,140 STROKE WERE CONSTRUCTION 2241 01:41:53,207 --> 01:41:54,408 WORKERS, PEOPLE WHO DIDN'T HAVE 2242 01:41:54,475 --> 01:41:57,077 A LOT OF RESOURCES AVAILABLE TO 2243 01:41:57,144 --> 01:42:00,013 THEM, SOME OLDER, SOME WERE NOT. 2244 01:42:00,080 --> 01:42:02,883 ARE THERE ANY THINGS ONE COULD 2245 01:42:02,950 --> 01:42:05,419 DO TO REDUCE FREQUENCY OF HEAT 2246 01:42:05,486 --> 01:42:07,054 STROKE BY SCREENING PEOPLE OR, 2247 01:42:07,120 --> 01:42:10,257 IS IT SO INDIVIDUAL AS YOU SAID, 2248 01:42:10,324 --> 01:42:15,729 THAT THERE JUST ISN'T ANYTHING? 2249 01:42:15,796 --> 01:42:21,502 >> WELL, THERE IS A WHOLE LIST 2250 01:42:21,568 --> 01:42:24,004 OF RESISTANT FACTORS BUT IF YOU 2251 01:42:24,071 --> 01:42:25,739 HAVE SOMEBODY WORKING, THEY 2252 01:42:25,806 --> 01:42:29,476 COULD STILL GET HEAT STROKE. 2253 01:42:29,543 --> 01:42:32,646 SO THE IDEA IS IF THEY ARE AT 2254 01:42:32,713 --> 01:42:34,481 HIGH RISK -- 2255 01:42:34,548 --> 01:42:35,315 [ OFF MIC ] 2256 01:42:35,382 --> 01:42:37,251 -- SITUATIONS AND I REALLY THINK 2257 01:42:37,317 --> 01:42:42,089 IT COMES DOWN TO INDIVIDUAL 2258 01:42:42,155 --> 01:42:44,224 MONITORING AND I REALLY BELIEVE 2259 01:42:44,291 --> 01:42:54,101 THERE ARE WAYS YOU CAN GO ABOUT 2260 01:42:54,167 --> 01:43:00,807 IT -- INAUDIBLE, AWAY FROM MIC ] 2261 01:43:00,874 --> 01:43:11,418 SO I THINK THERE IS WAYS TO GO 2262 01:43:15,622 --> 01:43:18,458 ABOUT IT, OKAY? 2263 01:43:18,525 --> 01:43:29,069 [ INAUDIBLE AND AWAY FROM MIC. 2264 01:43:31,939 --> 01:43:34,007 >> SO YOUR ADVICE FOR A 2265 01:43:34,074 --> 01:43:36,243 70-YEAR-OLD MAN IN TERMS OF 2266 01:43:36,310 --> 01:43:44,985 GOING OUT IN HOT TEMPERATURES IN 2267 01:43:45,052 --> 01:43:46,453 THE SUMMERTIME -- 2268 01:43:46,520 --> 01:43:48,388 >> IT DEPENDS ON THE 2269 01:43:48,455 --> 01:43:50,157 PHYSIOLOGICAL CONDITIONING BUT 2270 01:43:50,223 --> 01:43:52,326 YOU ALSO HAVE BEHAVIORAL 2271 01:43:52,392 --> 01:43:52,726 THERMOREGULATION. 2272 01:43:52,793 --> 01:43:53,727 MAYBE YOU SHOULD PAY ATTENTION 2273 01:43:53,794 --> 01:43:56,363 TO YOU ARE FEELING TOO HOT AND 2274 01:43:56,430 --> 01:43:59,132 NOT DOING WELL AND SLOWING DOWN. 2275 01:43:59,199 --> 01:44:01,134 AND UNFORTUNATELY WITH A WORKER 2276 01:44:01,201 --> 01:44:04,638 OR MILITARY PERSONNEL OR ATHLETE 2277 01:44:04,705 --> 01:44:06,940 WOULD IGNORE THE BEHAVIORAL 2278 01:44:07,007 --> 01:44:09,910 ASPECTS OF IT BECAUSE THEY HAVE 2279 01:44:09,977 --> 01:44:10,344 TO DO THINGS. 2280 01:44:10,410 --> 01:44:11,979 SO I WOULD SAY THE AVERAGE 2281 01:44:12,045 --> 01:44:14,147 PERSON, AND THIS IS AN AREA YOU 2282 01:44:14,214 --> 01:44:19,052 WANT TO DO IS HOW DO WE 2283 01:44:19,119 --> 01:44:20,554 CUSTOMIZE ADAPTATION FOR CERTAIN 2284 01:44:20,621 --> 01:44:24,391 POPULATIONS THAT BRING IN BOTH 2285 01:44:24,458 --> 01:44:26,426 THE MOLECULAR AND ABATEMENT RISK 2286 01:44:26,493 --> 01:44:28,862 TO THE BRAIN, WHAT THEY WILL BE 2287 01:44:28,929 --> 01:44:36,403 EXPOSED TO, RISK FACTORS AND 2288 01:44:36,470 --> 01:44:36,903 THEN WEARING TECHNOLOGY. 2289 01:44:36,970 --> 01:44:41,208 BUT IF IT KEEPS GETTING HOTTER 2290 01:44:41,274 --> 01:44:43,043 AND HOTTER, LIKE EXTREME, YOU 2291 01:44:43,110 --> 01:44:47,314 WILL HAVE TO AVOID IT, LIKE GO 2292 01:44:47,381 --> 01:44:48,181 NORTH. 2293 01:44:48,248 --> 01:44:49,816 YEAH, AT NIGHT, BUT EVEN AT 2294 01:44:49,883 --> 01:44:55,389 NIGHT, THE HUMIDITY GOES UP. 2295 01:44:55,455 --> 01:44:59,526 >> MICHAEL, WE HAVE A QUESTION 2296 01:44:59,593 --> 01:45:05,966 ASKING WHETHER AT THE PRESENT 2297 01:45:06,033 --> 01:45:08,402 TIME IS PREEXISTEN EXPOSURE TO 2298 01:45:08,468 --> 01:45:10,804 HEAT SHOCK OR SOMETHING CLOSE TO 2299 01:45:10,871 --> 01:45:14,474 IT CONSIDERED AS A RISK FACTOR 2300 01:45:14,541 --> 01:45:16,510 FOR VARIOUS HUMAN DEGENERATIVE 2301 01:45:16,576 --> 01:45:16,910 DISEASES? 2302 01:45:16,977 --> 01:45:20,047 AND YOU DID POINT OUT THAT 2303 01:45:20,113 --> 01:45:22,482 PEOPLE WHO HAVE CARDIOVASCULAR 2304 01:45:22,549 --> 01:45:25,686 AND SO FORTH, THESE ARE MORE AT 2305 01:45:25,752 --> 01:45:32,793 A RISK OF EXPERIENCING TOXICITY 2306 01:45:32,859 --> 01:45:34,127 AT EXTREME TEMPERATURES THAN 2307 01:45:34,194 --> 01:45:34,428 OTHERS. 2308 01:45:34,494 --> 01:45:38,165 BUT WHAT IS THE STATUS -- YOU 2309 01:45:38,231 --> 01:45:39,466 ALLUDED TO IT AND PRESENTED SOME 2310 01:45:39,533 --> 01:45:42,269 INFORMATION BUT YOU WANT TO 2311 01:45:42,335 --> 01:45:42,602 ELABORATE IT? 2312 01:45:42,669 --> 01:45:45,906 >> NOT SURE I FULLY UNDERSTAND 2313 01:45:45,972 --> 01:45:48,909 THE QUESTION AS FAR AS 2314 01:45:48,975 --> 01:45:50,510 LIMITATION BUT WE KNOW AND THERE 2315 01:45:50,577 --> 01:45:54,848 ARE MANY PAPERS OUT THERE FROM 2316 01:45:54,915 --> 01:45:58,518 ER ROOMS, PEOPLE WITH 2317 01:45:58,585 --> 01:46:01,922 CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASE, LUNGS, 2318 01:46:01,988 --> 01:46:05,759 YOU SEE ALL OF THESE INCREASING 2319 01:46:05,826 --> 01:46:06,893 BECAUSE OF STRESS. 2320 01:46:06,960 --> 01:46:09,296 BUT IT DOESN'T ALWAYS GO DOWN TO 2321 01:46:09,362 --> 01:46:16,670 THE HEAT ELEMENT, OKAY? 2322 01:46:16,737 --> 01:46:19,740 IT WILL CAUSE OTHER THINGS. 2323 01:46:19,806 --> 01:46:24,845 HEAT SHOCK, WHEN YOU PUT A SALAD 2324 01:46:24,911 --> 01:46:29,382 AT 41-1/2 1/2 DEGREES, SEE WHAT 2325 01:46:29,449 --> 01:46:30,684 IT WILL DO. 2326 01:46:30,751 --> 01:46:34,020 WHEN YOU TALK HEAT EXPOSURE, IT 2327 01:46:34,087 --> 01:46:36,056 NEEDS TO BE INTEGRATED AND GET 2328 01:46:36,123 --> 01:46:39,926 OFF OF THE RESPONSE BECAUSE AS 2329 01:46:39,993 --> 01:46:41,061 POINTED OUT WHAT MIGHT BE 2330 01:46:41,128 --> 01:46:42,996 UNCOMFORTABLE FOR ONE PERSON 2331 01:46:43,063 --> 01:46:44,831 MIGHT BE DEADLY FOR ANOTHER AND 2332 01:46:44,898 --> 01:46:47,834 THAT WE DON'T EXACTLY 2333 01:46:47,901 --> 01:46:48,135 UNDERSTAND. 2334 01:46:48,201 --> 01:46:53,840 WE UNDERSTAND HOW TO CLIMATETIZE 2335 01:46:53,907 --> 01:46:55,976 AN ATHLETE OR YOUNGER PERSON BUT 2336 01:46:56,042 --> 01:47:06,419 NOT HOW TO CLIMATIZE A 2337 01:47:11,258 --> 01:47:11,591 UNHEALTHY80-YEAR-OLD. 2338 01:47:11,658 --> 01:47:13,093 >> GABRIEL, COULD YOU COMMENT 2339 01:47:13,160 --> 01:47:15,796 THAT IT SEEMS LIKE 20, 25 YEARS 2340 01:47:15,862 --> 01:47:20,233 AGO GLOBAL WARMING WAS SOMETHING 2341 01:47:20,300 --> 01:47:23,036 PEOPLE TALKED ABOUT OVER COFFEE 2342 01:47:23,103 --> 01:47:23,470 AND COCKTAILS. 2343 01:47:23,537 --> 01:47:25,205 WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED TO BRING 2344 01:47:25,272 --> 01:47:29,376 US TO SUCH A HIGH STATE OF 2345 01:47:29,442 --> 01:47:33,980 PUBLIC AWARENESS AND FEAR? 2346 01:47:34,047 --> 01:47:36,550 >> WELL, I WOULD CAUTION AGAINST 2347 01:47:36,616 --> 01:47:36,783 FEAR. 2348 01:47:36,850 --> 01:47:39,319 I WOULD CAUTION AGAINST SORT OF 2349 01:47:39,386 --> 01:47:40,053 FEELING DESPARATION. 2350 01:47:40,120 --> 01:47:46,393 IT IS A VERY SERIOUS SET OF 2351 01:47:46,459 --> 01:47:49,696 CONCERNS BUT I THINK, YOU KNOW, 2352 01:47:49,763 --> 01:47:52,732 SOMETIMES PEOPLE DO GEORGIA -- 2353 01:47:52,799 --> 01:47:56,436 AND IT IS NOT PRODUCTIVE TO 2354 01:47:56,503 --> 01:47:58,905 MAKING GOOD DECISIONS TO BE 2355 01:47:58,972 --> 01:47:59,806 FEARFUL OF IT. 2356 01:47:59,873 --> 01:48:02,442 WE NEED TO BE RATIONAL 2357 01:48:02,509 --> 01:48:08,215 ESPECIALLY WHEN DEALING WITH 2358 01:48:08,281 --> 01:48:08,849 SOMETHING SO CHALLENGING. 2359 01:48:08,915 --> 01:48:12,085 BUT I THINK THE EVIDENCE OF 2360 01:48:12,152 --> 01:48:14,454 GLOBAL WARMING OVER THE LAST 2361 01:48:14,521 --> 01:48:18,458 DECADE HAS BECOME SO COMPELLING 2362 01:48:18,525 --> 01:48:23,129 AND UNDENIABLE IN A REASONABLE 2363 01:48:23,196 --> 01:48:25,031 WAY THAT THOSE OF US WHO KNEW 2364 01:48:25,098 --> 01:48:27,767 THE EVIDENCE AND PREDICTIONS AND 2365 01:48:27,834 --> 01:48:31,605 SORT OF GROWING CONCERNS SAW IT 2366 01:48:31,671 --> 01:48:33,473 DECADES AGO BUT SOMETIMES, YOU 2367 01:48:33,540 --> 01:48:35,876 KNOW, YOU NEED TO ACTUALLY SEE 2368 01:48:35,942 --> 01:48:38,378 THE SORT OF MORE EXTREME 2369 01:48:38,445 --> 01:48:40,247 SYMPTOMS FOR PEOPLE TO REACT. 2370 01:48:40,313 --> 01:48:43,350 AND IN MANY WAYS, I THINK THERE 2371 01:48:43,416 --> 01:48:45,285 IS MAYBE ANALOGY BETWEEN THE 2372 01:48:45,352 --> 01:48:48,922 HEAT STRESS AND ALL THE WAY 2373 01:48:48,989 --> 01:48:50,690 GOING TO HEAT STROKE IN A 2374 01:48:50,757 --> 01:48:52,659 INDIVIDUAL AND SORT OF THIS 2375 01:48:52,726 --> 01:48:54,160 LARGER SCALE ISSUE ON THE 2376 01:48:54,227 --> 01:48:58,231 PLANET, RIGHT, WHEN SOMEBODY CAN 2377 01:48:58,298 --> 01:48:59,032 TELL YOU THAT EXERCISING 2378 01:48:59,099 --> 01:49:02,202 OUTDOORS IN THE HEAT MAY HAVE 2379 01:49:02,269 --> 01:49:03,970 VARIOUS IMPACTS ON YOU BY MAYBE 2380 01:49:04,037 --> 01:49:05,805 NOT TILL YOU SEE THE SYMPTOMS 2381 01:49:05,872 --> 01:49:06,773 WOULD YOU REACT AND SOMETIMES 2382 01:49:06,840 --> 01:49:09,175 THAT MIGHT BE A LITTLE TOO LATE. 2383 01:49:09,242 --> 01:49:11,378 I THINK UNFORTUNATELY FOR THE 2384 01:49:11,444 --> 01:49:13,513 PLANET, WE ARE SEEING THE 2385 01:49:13,580 --> 01:49:16,650 SYMPTOMS BUT ARE STILL AT THE 2386 01:49:16,716 --> 01:49:18,652 STAGE WHERE I THINK CORRECTIVE 2387 01:49:18,718 --> 01:49:21,721 MEASURES CAN BE TAKEN, NOT TO 2388 01:49:21,788 --> 01:49:23,290 AVOID GLOBAL WARMING ALTOGETHER 2389 01:49:23,356 --> 01:49:25,692 OR EVEN MORE GLOBAL WARMING OVER 2390 01:49:25,759 --> 01:49:28,528 THE NEXT FEW DECADES BUT YES TO 2391 01:49:28,595 --> 01:49:30,497 BRING IT WITHIN MANAGEABLE 2392 01:49:30,563 --> 01:49:31,731 LEVELS, RIGHT? 2393 01:49:31,798 --> 01:49:34,234 SO I THINK IT IS ONE OF THESE, 2394 01:49:34,301 --> 01:49:37,237 YOU KNOW, THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE 2395 01:49:37,304 --> 01:49:38,204 PRACTICING DOCTORS, YOU PROBABLY 2396 01:49:38,271 --> 01:49:40,573 SEE THIS IN INDIVIDUALS ALL THE 2397 01:49:40,640 --> 01:49:40,941 TIME. 2398 01:49:41,007 --> 01:49:42,842 YOU WARN -- AND MYSELF, RIGHT? 2399 01:49:42,909 --> 01:49:45,512 I KNEW BEFORE I TURNED 40 I 2400 01:49:45,578 --> 01:49:47,447 NEEDED TO START EXERCISING MORE 2401 01:49:47,514 --> 01:49:50,750 BUT IT WAS ONLY AFTER YOUR 2402 01:49:50,817 --> 01:49:52,218 METABOLISM SLOWS DOWN ON YOU 2403 01:49:52,285 --> 01:49:54,521 THAT YOU BELIEVE YOU ARE LIKE 2404 01:49:54,587 --> 01:49:55,588 EVERY OTHER HUMAN BEING ON THE 2405 01:49:55,655 --> 01:49:57,824 PLANET AND THEN IT IS ONLY TILL 2406 01:49:57,891 --> 01:50:00,393 WE START SEEING THE TEMPERATURE 2407 01:50:00,460 --> 01:50:01,895 RECORDS AND ALL THESE THINGS 2408 01:50:01,962 --> 01:50:03,964 THAT WE REALIZE THAT YEAH, THERE 2409 01:50:04,030 --> 01:50:06,266 IS SORT OF AN ENERGY BALANCE TO 2410 01:50:06,333 --> 01:50:15,308 THE PLANET AND WE KNOW HOW IT 2411 01:50:15,375 --> 01:50:15,608 WORKS. 2412 01:50:15,675 --> 01:50:16,009 >> MARIE? 2413 01:50:16,076 --> 01:50:20,046 >> THE EFFECT OF THE MELTING 2414 01:50:20,113 --> 01:50:24,884 ICEBERGS AND RISING OCEAN DEPTH, 2415 01:50:24,951 --> 01:50:26,853 HOW DOES THAT PLAY WITH RESPECT 2416 01:50:26,920 --> 01:50:28,722 TO HEALTH? 2417 01:50:28,788 --> 01:50:31,257 HOW SERIOUS IS THE NOTION OF 2418 01:50:31,324 --> 01:50:34,961 FLOODING ON THE LAND? 2419 01:50:35,028 --> 01:50:37,731 >> SO WE -- IT IS VERY CLEAR 2420 01:50:37,797 --> 01:50:40,500 THAT SEA LEVEL HAS RISEN. 2421 01:50:40,567 --> 01:50:44,537 ANYBODY HERE IN COASTAL 2422 01:50:44,604 --> 01:50:46,206 MARYLAND, OF ALL PLACES, SHOULD 2423 01:50:46,272 --> 01:50:46,773 SEE THAT. 2424 01:50:46,840 --> 01:50:50,176 SO AS YOU WARM THE PLANET, TWO 2425 01:50:50,243 --> 01:50:52,812 KEY THINGS HAPPEN TO RISE SEA 2426 01:50:52,879 --> 01:50:53,146 LEVEL. 2427 01:50:53,213 --> 01:50:57,117 ONE, WATER EXPANDS AS YOU WARM 2428 01:50:57,183 --> 01:50:59,652 IT, LIKE ANY FLUID WOULD. 2429 01:50:59,719 --> 01:51:01,588 AND THE SECOND EFFECT IS YOU 2430 01:51:01,654 --> 01:51:04,024 MELT ICE ON LAND AND THAT RUNS 2431 01:51:04,090 --> 01:51:09,095 OFF INTO THE OCEANS AND THAT 2432 01:51:09,162 --> 01:51:12,499 RISES THE MASS OF THE OCEAN AND 2433 01:51:12,565 --> 01:51:16,036 BOTH OF THOSE WE HAVE OBSERVED 2434 01:51:16,102 --> 01:51:16,703 TO HAPPEN. 2435 01:51:16,770 --> 01:51:19,105 WE HAVE ROBUST EXPANSION OF THE 2436 01:51:19,172 --> 01:51:21,408 OCEAN, MEASURED TEMPERATURE AND 2437 01:51:21,474 --> 01:51:23,043 DENSITY AND THEN WE HAVE 2438 01:51:23,109 --> 01:51:24,744 SATELLITES THAT CAN MEASURE THE 2439 01:51:24,811 --> 01:51:25,545 MASS OF THE OCEAN. 2440 01:51:25,612 --> 01:51:28,014 SO WE HAVE SEEN SEA LEVEL RISE 2441 01:51:28,081 --> 01:51:29,582 AND SEEN THINGS THAT ARE 2442 01:51:29,649 --> 01:51:32,986 REFERRED TO AS NUISANCE FLOODING 2443 01:51:33,053 --> 01:51:36,756 OR SUNNY DAY FLOODING, YOU KNOW, 2444 01:51:36,823 --> 01:51:41,428 IN PLACES ESPECIALLY IN SOME 2445 01:51:41,494 --> 01:51:43,029 COASTAL MARYLAND, COASTAL 2446 01:51:43,096 --> 01:51:43,830 VIRGINIA, DELAWARE, BECAUSE THAT 2447 01:51:43,897 --> 01:51:47,434 IS A HOT SPOT FOR SEA LEVEL RISE 2448 01:51:47,500 --> 01:51:51,771 AND NOW THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF 2449 01:51:51,838 --> 01:51:54,507 UNCERTAINTY AS SORT OF WHAT THE 2450 01:51:54,574 --> 01:51:56,109 STABLE LEVEL OR OVER THE NEXT 2451 01:51:56,176 --> 01:51:58,978 CENTURY HOW MUCH SEA LEVEL RISE 2452 01:51:59,045 --> 01:51:59,679 WE WILL GET. 2453 01:51:59,746 --> 01:52:02,215 UP TILL NOW, IT HAS BEEN ON THE 2454 01:52:02,282 --> 01:52:03,283 ORDER OF CENTIMETERS. 2455 01:52:03,349 --> 01:52:05,585 WE THINK OVER THE COMING 2456 01:52:05,652 --> 01:52:09,823 CENTURY, IT COULD BE METERS OF 2457 01:52:09,889 --> 01:52:14,260 SEA LEVEL RISE SO IF YOU LIVE 2458 01:52:14,327 --> 01:52:17,630 WHERE THE ELEVATION IS ABOVE 2459 01:52:17,697 --> 01:52:20,700 MANY METERS, MAYBE THAT IS NOT A 2460 01:52:20,767 --> 01:52:23,103 CONCERN BUT MANY CITIES WITH 2461 01:52:23,169 --> 01:52:25,305 CRUCIAL PIECES OF INFRASTRUCTURE 2462 01:52:25,371 --> 01:52:26,940 ARE BUILT WITHIN METERS OF 2463 01:52:27,006 --> 01:52:28,608 CURRENT SEA LEVEL ESPECIALLY IF 2464 01:52:28,675 --> 01:52:30,643 YOU START THINKING ABOUT STORM 2465 01:52:30,710 --> 01:52:33,079 SURGE ON TOP OF SEA LEVEL RISE. 2466 01:52:33,146 --> 01:52:36,316 SO CHANGING SEA LEVELS ARE A BIG 2467 01:52:36,382 --> 01:52:43,189 CONCERN AND HOW TO DEAL WITH THE 2468 01:52:43,256 --> 01:52:47,193 FLOODING EFFECTS OF RISING SEES 2469 01:52:47,260 --> 01:52:48,027 REQUIRES ENGINEERING AND IS A 2470 01:52:48,094 --> 01:52:49,696 POLITICAL CHALLENGE. 2471 01:52:49,762 --> 01:52:51,764 IT MAY REQUIRE RELOCATING PEOPLE 2472 01:52:51,831 --> 01:52:53,900 AND HOW DO YOU SORT OF DO IT IN 2473 01:52:53,967 --> 01:52:59,405 A WAY THAT IS JUST AND NOT VERY 2474 01:52:59,472 --> 01:53:00,173 ECONOMICALLY DISRUPTIVE, IS THE 2475 01:53:00,240 --> 01:53:01,474 KEY QUESTION. 2476 01:53:01,541 --> 01:53:07,680 SO YES, RISING SEA LEVELS ARE A 2477 01:53:07,747 --> 01:53:08,548 BIG DEAL. 2478 01:53:08,615 --> 01:53:14,220 >> JUST TO ASK, COULD YOU LANE 2479 01:53:14,287 --> 01:53:17,323 EXPLAIN THE EL NINO EFFECT 2480 01:53:17,390 --> 01:53:18,224 AGAIN? 2481 01:53:18,291 --> 01:53:26,366 >> WELL, TOO -- TO FULLY EXPLAIN 2482 01:53:26,432 --> 01:53:30,036 IT TAKES QUITE A BIT OF TIME BUT 2483 01:53:30,103 --> 01:53:34,741 EVERY FEW YEARS THE EASTERN 2484 01:53:34,807 --> 01:53:35,942 EQUATORIAL TEMPERATURE GETS 2485 01:53:36,009 --> 01:53:38,778 WARMER THAN IT USUALLY IS AND 2486 01:53:38,845 --> 01:53:41,181 THAT IS ASSOCIATED THE RAINFALL 2487 01:53:41,247 --> 01:53:43,316 PATTERNS AT THE TROPICAL PACIFIC 2488 01:53:43,383 --> 01:53:44,918 OCEAN AND HAS LARGE SCALE 2489 01:53:44,984 --> 01:53:46,653 EFFECTS AROUND THE PLANET. 2490 01:53:46,719 --> 01:53:49,355 YOU CAN THINK OF IT AS WEATHER 2491 01:53:49,422 --> 01:53:52,258 THAT LASTS A LOT LONGER THAN 2492 01:53:52,325 --> 01:53:53,693 DAYS BUT LASTS MONTHS. 2493 01:53:53,760 --> 01:53:57,130 SORT OF THE WAY THAT EL NINO 2494 01:53:57,197 --> 01:53:59,666 HAPPENS, ONE OF THE CONSEQUENCES 2495 01:53:59,732 --> 01:54:01,401 OF IT IS IS THAT RAINFALL MOVES 2496 01:54:01,467 --> 01:54:09,576 FROM LAND TO THE OCEAN AND THAT 2497 01:54:09,642 --> 01:54:11,177 DRIES TROPICAL LAND AND ONE OF 2498 01:54:11,244 --> 01:54:13,613 THE CONSEQUENCES OF THAT IS YOU 2499 01:54:13,680 --> 01:54:15,448 WARM THE PLANET. 2500 01:54:15,515 --> 01:54:18,251 SO EL NINO, THE SYMPTOM OF IT IS 2501 01:54:18,318 --> 01:54:19,619 A WARMING YOU HAVE PLANET THAT 2502 01:54:19,686 --> 01:54:21,654 LASTS ON THE ORDER OF A FEW 2503 01:54:21,721 --> 01:54:23,456 SEASONS TO A YEAR AND THEN IS 2504 01:54:23,523 --> 01:54:26,292 FOLLOWED BY A RELATIVE COOLING. 2505 01:54:26,359 --> 01:54:29,329 SO IF WE HAD HAD LONG-TERM 2506 01:54:29,395 --> 01:54:30,496 MEASUREMENTS OF TEMPERATURES 2507 01:54:30,563 --> 01:54:33,433 THOUSANDS OF YEARS AGO, WE WOULD 2508 01:54:33,499 --> 01:54:35,268 HAVE SEEN ON TIME SCALES OF 2509 01:54:35,335 --> 01:54:36,436 SEASONS AND YEARS, TEMPERATURES 2510 01:54:36,502 --> 01:54:39,672 GOING UP AND DOWN BY A FEW 2511 01:54:39,739 --> 01:54:40,707 TENTHS OF CELSIUS. 2512 01:54:40,773 --> 01:54:42,542 UNDER THE CURRENT WARMING, WE 2513 01:54:42,609 --> 01:54:44,844 HAVE THIS LONG-TERM TREND AND ON 2514 01:54:44,911 --> 01:54:48,481 TOP OF IT, YOU HAVE THESE 2515 01:54:48,548 --> 01:54:49,983 LONG-TERM CYCLES AS TEMPERATURES 2516 01:54:50,049 --> 01:54:51,017 CHANGE. 2517 01:54:51,084 --> 01:54:53,920 SO EL NINO IS THE WEATHER THAT 2518 01:54:53,987 --> 01:54:56,956 LASTS LONGER TIME PERIODS. 2519 01:54:57,023 --> 01:54:58,725 >> SO WE'RE ALMOST RUNNING OUT 2520 01:54:58,791 --> 01:55:00,960 OF TIME BUT WE HAVE A VERY 2521 01:55:01,027 --> 01:55:02,895 IMPORTANT QUESTION THAT IS 2522 01:55:02,962 --> 01:55:04,964 PARTICULARLY RELEVANT HERE AT 2523 01:55:05,031 --> 01:55:06,733 THE NATIONAL INSTITUTES OF 2524 01:55:06,799 --> 01:55:07,267 HEALTH. 2525 01:55:07,333 --> 01:55:09,469 WHAT DO YOU BOTH THINK IS THE 2526 01:55:09,535 --> 01:55:11,871 ROLE AND WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 2527 01:55:11,938 --> 01:55:21,848 NEAR FUTURE OF WHAT YOU MAY CALL 2528 01:55:21,914 --> 01:55:24,050 BASIC BIOLOGY, MOLECULAR BIOLOGY 2529 01:55:24,117 --> 01:55:26,853 AND SO FORTH IN UNDERSTANDING 2530 01:55:26,919 --> 01:55:31,324 HOW CELLS, ORGANS AND SPECIES 2531 01:55:31,391 --> 01:55:36,663 REACT TO CHANGES IN THE 2532 01:55:36,729 --> 01:55:38,998 ENVIRONMENT INCLUDING THE HEAT? 2533 01:55:39,065 --> 01:55:42,101 SO UNDERSTANDING THIS ACTIVE 2534 01:55:42,168 --> 01:55:47,307 AREA OF VEST TKPWAEUGS AND -- 2535 01:55:47,373 --> 01:55:48,574 INVESTIGATION AND HOW IMPORTANT 2536 01:55:48,641 --> 01:55:50,276 YOU THINK IT MIGHT BE IN TERMS 2537 01:55:50,343 --> 01:55:52,378 OF FUTURE DECISIONS WE HAVE TO 2538 01:55:52,445 --> 01:55:52,979 MAKE. 2539 01:55:53,046 --> 01:55:56,516 >> SO I AM NOT -- I WILL LET 2540 01:55:56,582 --> 01:55:58,484 MIKE TALK ABOUT THE CELLS AND 2541 01:55:58,551 --> 01:55:59,819 THE PEOPLE. 2542 01:55:59,886 --> 01:56:02,188 WHAT I WILL SAY IS AT THE GLOBAL 2543 01:56:02,255 --> 01:56:04,724 SCALE, UNDERSTANDING SORT OF 2544 01:56:04,791 --> 01:56:06,392 ECOSYSTEM RESPONSE TO CLIMATE 2545 01:56:06,459 --> 01:56:07,860 CHANGE AND UNDERSTANDING EVEN 2546 01:56:07,927 --> 01:56:09,629 BASICS OF CLIMATE CHANGE, 2547 01:56:09,696 --> 01:56:11,264 THERE'S A LOT OF FUNDAMENTAL 2548 01:56:11,331 --> 01:56:15,034 RESEARCH THAT NEEDS TO BE DONE. 2549 01:56:15,101 --> 01:56:18,171 OUR ABILITY TO MAKE ACCURATE 2550 01:56:18,237 --> 01:56:19,872 PREDICTIONS AT A REGIONAL SCALE 2551 01:56:19,939 --> 01:56:23,042 DEPENDS ON THINGS THAT WE DON'T 2552 01:56:23,109 --> 01:56:24,477 FULLY UNDERSTAND YET, THE 2553 01:56:24,544 --> 01:56:27,313 PROCESS AT THE MICRO SCALE AND 2554 01:56:27,380 --> 01:56:30,383 NANOSCALE THAT LEAD TO CLOUD 2555 01:56:30,450 --> 01:56:33,386 FORMATION, HOW ORGANISMS TAKE UP 2556 01:56:33,453 --> 01:56:35,655 CARBON DIOXIDE AND THEN HOW THAT 2557 01:56:35,722 --> 01:56:36,923 GETS SEQUESTERED DEEPER IN THE 2558 01:56:36,989 --> 01:56:38,591 OCEAN AND A NUMBER OF OTHER 2559 01:56:38,658 --> 01:56:42,061 THINGS AND I THINK BASIC 2560 01:56:42,128 --> 01:56:46,499 RESEARCH THAT SPANS TRADITIONAL 2561 01:56:46,566 --> 01:56:48,568 DISCIPLINES IS GOING TO BE IT. 2562 01:56:48,634 --> 01:56:51,671 AND ON THE LARGER SCALE, WE NEED 2563 01:56:51,738 --> 01:56:53,239 MORE BASIC RESEARCH AND I THINK 2564 01:56:53,306 --> 01:56:56,209 EVEN AT THE SMALLER LEVEL. 2565 01:56:56,275 --> 01:56:59,178 >> ON THE MOLECULAR LEVEL, WE 2566 01:56:59,245 --> 01:57:00,446 DESCRIBED THE SURFACE AND I 2567 01:57:00,513 --> 01:57:02,749 TOUCHED ON A MEMORY OF THINGS 2568 01:57:02,815 --> 01:57:04,717 THAT ARE EXTREMELY IMPORTANT AND 2569 01:57:04,784 --> 01:57:06,552 THAT IS UNDERSTANDING THE 2570 01:57:06,619 --> 01:57:07,920 MECHANISMS OF CELL PROTECTION, 2571 01:57:07,987 --> 01:57:11,457 HOW TO OPTIMIZE THAT. 2572 01:57:11,524 --> 01:57:13,059 UNDERSTANDING RECOVERY FROM 2573 01:57:13,126 --> 01:57:14,560 ILLNESS AND LOOKING AT THE 2574 01:57:14,627 --> 01:57:16,295 FUTURE, WE HAVE TO BE CARRYING 2575 01:57:16,362 --> 01:57:19,031 ON THE PROBLEMS, ADAPTIVE 2576 01:57:19,098 --> 01:57:19,365 MEMORY. 2577 01:57:19,432 --> 01:57:22,168 AND TO MY KNOWLEDGE, THERE ARE 2578 01:57:22,235 --> 01:57:24,137 ONLY A HANDFUL OF LABS THAT ARE 2579 01:57:24,203 --> 01:57:25,405 STUDYING THIS THROUGHOUT THE 2580 01:57:25,471 --> 01:57:26,038 WORLD. 2581 01:57:26,105 --> 01:57:30,476 BUT I THINK THROUGH THIS, IT 2582 01:57:30,543 --> 01:57:31,477 REQUIRES AN INTERDISCIPLINARY 2583 01:57:31,544 --> 01:57:31,944 APPROACH. 2584 01:57:32,011 --> 01:57:34,981 RETURN TO DUTY, RETURN TO WORK, 2585 01:57:35,047 --> 01:57:36,182 LONG-TERM RECOVERY. 2586 01:57:36,249 --> 01:57:40,553 THAT IS WHY I THINK THERE IS AN 2587 01:57:40,620 --> 01:57:41,320 INTERDISCIPLINARY AND 2588 01:57:41,387 --> 01:57:44,090 INTERAGENCY PROBLEM THAT PEOPLE 2589 01:57:44,157 --> 01:57:45,925 HAVE TO WORK THROUGH TOGETHER. 2590 01:57:45,992 --> 01:57:48,161 >> WELL, I THINK WE HAVE 2591 01:57:48,227 --> 01:57:50,763 EXHAUSTED MOST OF THE QUESTIONS 2592 01:57:50,830 --> 01:57:52,231 THAT WERE SUBMITTED AND I JUST 2593 01:57:52,298 --> 01:57:55,668 WANT TO THANK YOU BOTH ON BEHALF 2594 01:57:55,735 --> 01:57:58,137 OF THE FOLKS HERE AND THE MANY, 2595 01:57:58,204 --> 01:58:00,139 MANY, MANY AROUND THE WORLD WHO 2596 01:58:00,206 --> 01:58:03,376 ARE LISTENING AND BENEFITTING 2597 01:58:03,443 --> 01:58:04,911 FROM YOUR WONDERFUL 2598 01:58:04,977 --> 01:58:08,481 PRESENTATION, SO THANK YOU VERY 2599 01:58:08,548 --> 01:58:08,748 MUCH. 2600 01:58:08,815 REALLY HAS BEEN AN EXCITING