1 00:00:05,960 --> 00:00:10,040 >> WELCOME TO THE 21st YEAR 2 00:00:10,040 --> 00:00:13,440 OF THE NIH COURSE IN DEMYSTIFING 3 00:00:13,440 --> 00:00:14,240 MEDICINE. 4 00:00:14,240 --> 00:00:17,520 THE GOAL OF THIS COURSE IS TO 5 00:00:17,520 --> 00:00:20,120 BRIDGE EXCITING DEVELOPMENTS IN 6 00:00:20,120 --> 00:00:22,800 BIOLOGIC AND ENGINEERING 7 00:00:22,800 --> 00:00:24,240 SCIENCES AND BRIDGE THAT WITH 8 00:00:24,240 --> 00:00:26,840 MEDICINE. 9 00:00:26,840 --> 00:00:29,120 THE LOGO IS THE BROOKLYN BRIDGE 10 00:00:29,120 --> 00:00:32,720 AND WE'RE LIKE THE TWO 11 00:00:32,720 --> 00:00:45,880 INDIVIDUALS ON THE BRIDGE TO 12 00:00:45,880 --> 00:00:46,320 COMMUNICATE. 13 00:00:46,320 --> 00:00:50,840 TODAY WE'RE GOING TO DISCUSS THE 14 00:00:50,840 --> 00:00:52,840 MAJOR HEALTH PROBLEM CONFRONTING 15 00:00:52,840 --> 00:00:54,400 US AND THE WORLD. 16 00:00:54,400 --> 00:00:56,480 THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC. 17 00:00:56,480 --> 00:01:03,240 WHICH HAS TAKEN OVER 5 MILLION 18 00:01:03,240 --> 00:01:05,240 CAUSED 5 MILLION DEATHS 19 00:01:05,240 --> 00:01:07,360 WORLDWIDE AND OVER 800,000 IN 20 00:01:07,360 --> 00:01:09,080 THE UNITED STATES ALONE AND HAS 21 00:01:09,080 --> 00:01:10,800 CHANGED LIFE FOR EVERYONE. 22 00:01:10,800 --> 00:01:13,560 WE'VE SEEN DURING THE PAST TWO 23 00:01:13,560 --> 00:01:18,400 YEARS EXTRAORDINARY ADVANCES IN 24 00:01:18,400 --> 00:01:20,280 SCIENCE, AT THE SAME TIME 25 00:01:20,280 --> 00:01:22,600 INEQUALITIES IN NATIONAL AND 26 00:01:22,600 --> 00:01:24,960 GLOBAL HEALTH SYSTEMS, 27 00:01:24,960 --> 00:01:28,800 EXTRAORDINARY COOPERATION AND 28 00:01:28,800 --> 00:01:30,320 EXAMPLES OF OUTSTANDING 29 00:01:30,320 --> 00:01:32,040 LEADERSHIP. 30 00:01:32,040 --> 00:01:34,840 OUR SPEAKERS TODAY ARE IN THAT 31 00:01:34,840 --> 00:01:36,800 GROUP. 32 00:01:36,800 --> 00:01:39,160 DR. ANTHONY FAUCI TRULY NEEDS NO 33 00:01:39,160 --> 00:01:40,200 INTRODUCTION TO US. 34 00:01:40,200 --> 00:01:42,240 HE HAS BEEN THE PUBLIC FACE OF 35 00:01:42,240 --> 00:01:44,320 THE COVID PANDEMIC RESPONSE 36 00:01:44,320 --> 00:01:46,000 SINCE JANUARY OF 2020. 37 00:01:46,000 --> 00:01:48,920 AND IS CURRENTLY THE CHIEF 38 00:01:48,920 --> 00:01:50,800 ADVISER TO THE PRESIDENT OF THE 39 00:01:50,800 --> 00:01:52,280 UNITED STATES. 40 00:01:52,280 --> 00:01:55,960 AND A LEAD MEMBER OF THE NIH 41 00:01:55,960 --> 00:02:01,040 COVID-19 RESPONSE TEAM. 42 00:02:01,040 --> 00:02:03,200 TONY WILL SPEAK FIRST AND HIS 43 00:02:03,200 --> 00:02:05,800 LECTURE IS ENTITLED COVID THEN, 44 00:02:05,800 --> 00:02:08,080 NOW AND THE FUTURE. 45 00:02:08,080 --> 00:02:11,160 OUR SECOND SPEAKER DR. ROGER 46 00:02:11,160 --> 00:02:15,120 GLASS IS THE DIRECTOR OF THE NIH 47 00:02:15,120 --> 00:02:16,920 FOGARTY INTERNATIONAL CENTER FOR 48 00:02:16,920 --> 00:02:20,760 GLOBAL HEALTH. 49 00:02:20,760 --> 00:02:22,320 HIS WORK HAS SPURRED 50 00:02:22,320 --> 00:02:24,760 INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION IN 51 00:02:24,760 --> 00:02:25,600 VACCINE DEVELOPMENT AND 52 00:02:25,600 --> 00:02:28,000 DISTRIBUTION AS WELL AS TRACING 53 00:02:28,000 --> 00:02:30,640 THE EPIDEMIOLOGY AND 54 00:02:30,640 --> 00:02:32,440 TRANSMISSION DYNAMICS OF THE 55 00:02:32,440 --> 00:02:34,640 PANDEMIC ON A GLOBAL SCALE AND 56 00:02:34,640 --> 00:02:37,840 ROGER WILL SPEAK ON THE GLOBAL 57 00:02:37,840 --> 00:02:40,240 CHALLENGE COVID-19 AND FUTURE 58 00:02:40,240 --> 00:02:42,160 PANDEMICS. 59 00:02:42,160 --> 00:02:45,640 TO BOTH OF YOU, WE THANK YOU 60 00:02:45,640 --> 00:02:47,080 ENORMOUSLY FOR YOUR 61 00:02:47,080 --> 00:02:50,520 PARTICIPATION IN THE DEMYSTIFING 62 00:02:50,520 --> 00:02:52,680 MEDICINE PRESENTATION TODAY AND 63 00:02:52,680 --> 00:02:54,920 FOR YOUR VALUABLE TIME AND 64 00:02:54,920 --> 00:02:55,840 CONTRIBUTIONS. 65 00:02:55,840 --> 00:02:58,240 OUR FIRST SPEAKER IS 66 00:02:58,240 --> 00:03:00,120 DR. ANTHONY FAUCI AND THANK YOU 67 00:03:00,120 --> 00:03:03,600 TONY FOR BEING WITH US. 68 00:03:03,600 --> 00:03:04,880 >> THANK YOU VERY MUCH. 69 00:03:04,880 --> 00:03:06,640 IT'S A GREAT PLEASURE TO JOIN 70 00:03:06,640 --> 00:03:08,320 YOU AGAIN FOR THIS IMPORTANT 71 00:03:08,320 --> 00:03:09,720 SERIES OF LECTURES. 72 00:03:09,720 --> 00:03:11,480 AS I MENTIONED IN YOUR 73 00:03:11,480 --> 00:03:13,280 INTRODUCTION I WILL BE TALKING 74 00:03:13,280 --> 00:03:15,960 ABOUT COVID-19 THEN, NOW AND IN 75 00:03:15,960 --> 00:03:16,760 THE FUTURE. 76 00:03:16,760 --> 00:03:18,200 SO LET'S GET RIGHT TO IT. 77 00:03:18,200 --> 00:03:21,520 AS WE KNOW NOW WITHOUT ANY DOUBT 78 00:03:21,520 --> 00:03:25,360 THIS IS ONE OF THE MOST 79 00:03:25,360 --> 00:03:27,040 IMPORTANT AND HISTORIC PANDEMICS 80 00:03:27,040 --> 00:03:29,560 IN HISTORY CERTAINLY THE MOST 81 00:03:29,560 --> 00:03:33,320 SEVERE OF ANY RESPIRATORY 82 00:03:33,320 --> 00:03:34,960 ILLNESS OF A PANDEMIC NATURE 83 00:03:34,960 --> 00:03:37,560 THAT WE'VE SEEN IN OVER 100 84 00:03:37,560 --> 00:03:38,560 YEARS. 85 00:03:38,560 --> 00:03:40,480 THE GLOBAL PANDEMIC IF YOU LOOK 86 00:03:40,480 --> 00:03:43,400 AT IT GLOBALLY IS ALMOST 87 00:03:43,400 --> 00:03:46,560 300 MILLION CASES AND AS WAS 88 00:03:46,560 --> 00:03:50,480 MENTIONED OVER 5 MILLION DEATHS 89 00:03:50,480 --> 00:03:50,880 GLOBALLY. 90 00:03:50,880 --> 00:03:53,640 IF YOU LOOK AT THE CONFIRMED 91 00:03:53,640 --> 00:03:56,360 CASES WORLDWIDE ONE CAN SEE THE 92 00:03:56,360 --> 00:03:59,280 SEVEN DAY ROLLING AVERAGE FROM 93 00:03:59,280 --> 00:04:02,280 THE LEFT TO THE RIGHT OF THE 94 00:04:02,280 --> 00:04:04,160 VARIOUS SURGES THAT DIFFERENT 95 00:04:04,160 --> 00:04:06,560 COUNTRIES HAVE EXPERIENCED TO 96 00:04:06,560 --> 00:04:08,640 VARYING DEGREES OVER THE LAST 97 00:04:08,640 --> 00:04:10,120 TWO YEARS. 98 00:04:10,120 --> 00:04:13,000 BUT NOTE THAT EXTRAORDINARY 99 00:04:13,000 --> 00:04:15,360 VERTICAL SPIKE THAT WE'RE NOW 100 00:04:15,360 --> 00:04:16,960 CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING WITH 101 00:04:16,960 --> 00:04:19,280 OMICRON WHICH I WILL GET BACK TO 102 00:04:19,280 --> 00:04:21,400 IN A MOMENT. 103 00:04:21,400 --> 00:04:22,480 UNFORTUNATELY FOR US HERE IN THE 104 00:04:22,480 --> 00:04:24,480 UNITED STATES WE'VE BEEN ONE OF 105 00:04:24,480 --> 00:04:26,680 THE WORST HIT COUNTRIES IN THE 106 00:04:26,680 --> 00:04:27,360 WORLD. 107 00:04:27,360 --> 00:04:29,840 WITH OVER 50 MILLION CASES AND 108 00:04:29,840 --> 00:04:34,720 NOW EXCEEDING 820,000 DEATHS. 109 00:04:34,720 --> 00:04:38,400 THE DISTRIBUTION OF CASES PER 110 00:04:38,400 --> 00:04:40,280 100,000 ARE MARKED BY THE 111 00:04:40,280 --> 00:04:42,560 DENSITY AND DARKNESS OF THE BLUE 112 00:04:42,560 --> 00:04:45,520 SHADE ON THIS SLIDE. 113 00:04:45,520 --> 00:04:46,880 CHILDREN ARE NOT SPARED FROM 114 00:04:46,880 --> 00:04:47,320 THIS. 115 00:04:47,320 --> 00:04:49,200 IF YOU LOOK AT IN THE UNITED 116 00:04:49,200 --> 00:04:51,080 STATES THERE HAVE BEEN ALMOST 117 00:04:51,080 --> 00:04:54,720 7 MILLION CASES IN CHILDREN WITH 118 00:04:54,720 --> 00:04:58,560 ABOUT 76,000 HOSPITALIZATIONS. 119 00:04:58,560 --> 00:05:01,680 SEVERAL HOUSE OF WHICH HAVE 120 00:05:01,680 --> 00:05:04,960 EXPERIENCED MULTI-SYSTEM 121 00:05:04,960 --> 00:05:06,640 INFLAMMATORY SYSTEM AND OVER 122 00:05:06,640 --> 00:05:08,480 1,000 DEATHS THUS FAR AMONG 123 00:05:08,480 --> 00:05:08,880 CHILDREN. 124 00:05:08,880 --> 00:05:10,920 THIS IS THE PATTERN THAT WE'VE 125 00:05:10,920 --> 00:05:12,960 ALL PAINFULLY EXPERIENCED OVER 126 00:05:12,960 --> 00:05:14,040 THE LAST TWO YEARS. 127 00:05:14,040 --> 00:05:16,560 AS YOU CAN SEE THE VARIOUS 128 00:05:16,560 --> 00:05:18,560 SPIKES IN THE SPRING OF 2020 THE 129 00:05:18,560 --> 00:05:21,520 SUMMER OF 2020 AND THEN THE FALL 130 00:05:21,520 --> 00:05:25,000 WINTER OF JUST THIS PAST YEAR 131 00:05:25,000 --> 00:05:26,600 WITH ANOTHER SURGE IN THE SUMMER 132 00:05:26,600 --> 00:05:27,280 WHICH WAS. 133 00:05:27,280 --> 00:05:29,920 COMING DOWN NICELY BUT THEN WE 134 00:05:29,920 --> 00:05:32,920 WERE HIT WITH YET AGAIN ANOTHER 135 00:05:32,920 --> 00:05:34,520 SURPRISE IF YOU WANT TO CALL IT 136 00:05:34,520 --> 00:05:36,560 THAT BUT WE'RE GETTING USED TO 137 00:05:36,560 --> 00:05:39,880 THEM NOW THAT THEY ARE NO LONGER 138 00:05:39,880 --> 00:05:41,520 SURPRISES. 139 00:05:41,520 --> 00:05:44,240 IS AN ALMOST VERTICAL SPIKE 140 00:05:44,240 --> 00:05:46,000 REFERRED TO BY SOME AS AN ICE 141 00:05:46,000 --> 00:05:47,760 PICK OF CASE THAT'S WE'RE SEEING 142 00:05:47,760 --> 00:05:49,760 RIGHT NOW IN THE UNITED STATES. 143 00:05:49,760 --> 00:05:52,640 OF NOTE AND I'LL GET BACK TO 144 00:05:52,640 --> 00:05:57,480 THIS IN A MOMENT THAT THE SPIKE 145 00:05:57,480 --> 00:06:01,560 IN CASES -- THERE HAS NOT BEEN A 146 00:06:01,560 --> 00:06:03,320 COMMENSURATE INCREASE IN 147 00:06:03,320 --> 00:06:05,080 HOSPITALIZATIONS OR DEATHS BUT 148 00:06:05,080 --> 00:06:07,640 REMEMBER BOTH OF THOSE ARE LATE 149 00:06:07,640 --> 00:06:09,360 LAGGING INDICATORS AND ALTHOUGH 150 00:06:09,360 --> 00:06:11,560 WE CAN TALK ABOUT THAT IN A FEW 151 00:06:11,560 --> 00:06:13,760 MINUTES WHEN I GET TO THAT 152 00:06:13,760 --> 00:06:16,880 NONETHELESS THIS IS SOMEWHAT 153 00:06:16,880 --> 00:06:19,440 COMFORTING NEWS ABOUT THE 154 00:06:19,440 --> 00:06:21,400 DISPARITY NOW BETWEEN CASES, 155 00:06:21,400 --> 00:06:23,000 HOSPITALIZATIONS AND DEATHS. 156 00:06:23,000 --> 00:06:25,120 LET'S TALK ABOUT SOME OF THE 157 00:06:25,120 --> 00:06:27,520 IMPORTANT ELEMENTS OF THIS 158 00:06:27,520 --> 00:06:28,760 HISTORIC OUTBREAK. 159 00:06:28,760 --> 00:06:32,200 FIRST THE VIE LOCAL GEE. 160 00:06:32,200 --> 00:06:35,600 THE HISTORY * IS VERY IMPORTANT 161 00:06:35,600 --> 00:06:38,960 TO OUR UNDERSTANDING. 162 00:06:38,960 --> 00:06:44,080 THE FONT IN RED ARE THE HUMAN 163 00:06:44,080 --> 00:06:45,040 CORONAVIRUS. 164 00:06:45,040 --> 00:06:48,560 THE HIGHLIGHTED YELLOW ARE THE 165 00:06:48,560 --> 00:06:51,360 PRECOVID SARS CO-V1 OUTBREAK IN 166 00:06:51,360 --> 00:06:52,160 2002. 167 00:06:52,160 --> 00:06:54,600 THESE ARE THE COMMON COLD 168 00:06:54,600 --> 00:06:59,200 VIRUSES THAT ACCOUNT FROM 5-30% 169 00:06:59,200 --> 00:07:01,520 DEPENDING ON WHERE YOU ARE OF 170 00:07:01,520 --> 00:07:05,960 THE COMMON COLD A USUALLY 171 00:07:05,960 --> 00:07:11,480 RELATIVELY BENIGN DECIDES. 172 00:07:11,480 --> 00:07:15,360 AND THEN THIS MAY HAVE HAPPENED 173 00:07:15,360 --> 00:07:17,760 -- WHICH ANTIDATED THE COMMON 174 00:07:17,760 --> 00:07:18,200 COLD. 175 00:07:18,200 --> 00:07:21,200 WE HAD A PANDEMIC OUTBREAK OF A 176 00:07:21,200 --> 00:07:23,240 CORONAVIRUS WITH THE FIRST SARS 177 00:07:23,240 --> 00:07:23,720 CO-V1. 178 00:07:23,720 --> 00:07:27,320 10 YEARS LATER THE SECOND NOT AS 179 00:07:27,320 --> 00:07:31,960 NEARLY AS IMPACTFUL AS SARS 180 00:07:31,960 --> 00:07:35,960 CO-V1 BUT THE MIDDLE-EAST 181 00:07:35,960 --> 00:07:37,160 RESPIRATORY SYNDROME. 182 00:07:37,160 --> 00:07:39,680 NOW WE'RE TALKING ABOUT NEW 183 00:07:39,680 --> 00:07:42,720 PANDEMIC VIRUSES THAT AS I 184 00:07:42,720 --> 00:07:46,120 MENTIONED BEGAN FROM 2002 AND 185 00:07:46,120 --> 00:07:46,320 2012. 186 00:07:46,320 --> 00:07:48,840 WHERE ARE WE NOW TODAY? 187 00:07:48,840 --> 00:07:52,320 THE THIRD PANDEMIC OUTBREAK. 188 00:07:52,320 --> 00:07:54,760 THIS ONE FAR SUPERSEDING ALL OF 189 00:07:54,760 --> 00:07:55,560 THE OTHERS. 190 00:07:55,560 --> 00:07:58,440 BEGINNING WITH A PATTERN OF AN 191 00:07:58,440 --> 00:08:02,480 OUTBREAK IN A MARKET, A SEAFOOD 192 00:08:02,480 --> 00:08:05,600 WET MARKET IN THE WUHAN DISTRICT 193 00:08:05,600 --> 00:08:07,160 OF CENTRAL CHINA. 194 00:08:07,160 --> 00:08:11,440 A FEW DAYS LATER THE PUBLICATION 195 00:08:11,440 --> 00:08:14,360 OF THE SEQUENCE ON A PUBLIC 196 00:08:14,360 --> 00:08:17,320 DATABASE TELLING US ALL WHAT WE 197 00:08:17,320 --> 00:08:18,960 ACTUALLY SUSPECTED THAT THIS WAS 198 00:08:18,960 --> 00:08:21,120 A CORONAVIRUS. 199 00:08:21,120 --> 00:08:23,160 BUT AN UNUSUAL CORONAVIRUS. 200 00:08:23,160 --> 00:08:27,040 ONE THAT IS VERY CLOSELY RELATED 201 00:08:27,040 --> 00:08:31,040 ON THE TREE TO SEVERAL BAT 202 00:08:31,040 --> 00:08:32,640 VIRUSES THAT CIRCULATE IN THE 203 00:08:32,640 --> 00:08:33,080 ENVIRONMENT. 204 00:08:33,080 --> 00:08:36,400 MAKING IT CLEAR THAT THIS VERY 205 00:08:36,400 --> 00:08:38,560 LIKELY THOUGH NOT PROVEN YET WAS 206 00:08:38,560 --> 00:08:40,560 A NATURAL OUTBREAK FROM AN 207 00:08:40,560 --> 00:08:43,160 ANIMAL MODEL TO A HUMAN. 208 00:08:43,160 --> 00:08:48,200 SO A CLOSER LOOK AT THE 209 00:08:48,200 --> 00:08:51,360 VIROLOGY. 210 00:08:51,360 --> 00:08:55,160 AS I MENTIONED SOME BAT 211 00:08:55,160 --> 00:08:59,960 CORONAVIRUSES AND AN RNA VIRUS 212 00:08:59,960 --> 00:09:04,880 WITH A LARGE GENOME. 213 00:09:04,880 --> 00:09:07,280 AND THE SPIKE PROTEIN WITH THE 214 00:09:07,280 --> 00:09:10,880 RECEPTOR BINDING DOMAIN THAT 215 00:09:10,880 --> 00:09:12,880 BINDS TO THE ACE 2 RECEPTORS 216 00:09:12,880 --> 00:09:14,360 THAT ARE DISTRIBUTED IN THE 217 00:09:14,360 --> 00:09:18,280 UPPER AIRWAY AND OTHER CELLS AND 218 00:09:18,280 --> 00:09:19,960 OTHER ORGAN SYSTEMS THROUGHOUT 219 00:09:19,960 --> 00:09:20,960 THE BODY. 220 00:09:20,960 --> 00:09:24,040 THE TRANSMISSION NOW IS VERY 221 00:09:24,040 --> 00:09:26,480 WELL CHARACTERIZED. 222 00:09:26,480 --> 00:09:28,560 EXPOSURE TO RESPIRATORY FLUIDS. 223 00:09:28,560 --> 00:09:31,160 FINE RESPIRATORY DROPLETS BUT 224 00:09:31,160 --> 00:09:32,560 VERY, VERY CLEAR NOW ALTHOUGH 225 00:09:32,560 --> 00:09:34,840 THIS WAS SOMEWHAT IN DOUBT EARLY 226 00:09:34,840 --> 00:09:37,560 ON THAT THIS IS AN AEROSOL 227 00:09:37,560 --> 00:09:38,840 SPREAD VIRUS. 228 00:09:38,840 --> 00:09:44,040 WITH DEPOSITION OF AEROSOL OR 229 00:09:44,040 --> 00:09:46,560 DROPLETS ON THE MEMBRANES. 230 00:09:46,560 --> 00:09:48,400 EARLIER THEY THOUGHT MAYBE THERE 231 00:09:48,400 --> 00:09:50,280 WAS TRANSMISSION WITH CONTACT 232 00:09:50,280 --> 00:09:52,320 WITH CONTAMINATED SURFACES. 233 00:09:52,320 --> 00:09:54,560 IF THIS OCCURS IT IS EXTREMELY 234 00:09:54,560 --> 00:09:55,080 RARE. 235 00:09:55,080 --> 00:09:59,400 THE RISK IS GREATEST IN POOR 236 00:09:59,400 --> 00:10:01,560 VENTILATED AREAS BUT WITH 237 00:10:01,560 --> 00:10:04,760 CERTAIN ACTIVITIES HENCE 238 00:10:04,760 --> 00:10:07,400 EXERCISE. 239 00:10:07,400 --> 00:10:10,080 SUCH AS IN CHOIRS OR CHORUSES. 240 00:10:10,080 --> 00:10:13,240 SOME RATHER UNIQUE ASPECTS OF 241 00:10:13,240 --> 00:10:16,640 THIS VIRUS THAT A VIRUS THAT HAS 242 00:10:16,640 --> 00:10:19,000 ALREADY KILLED 820,000 AMERICANS 243 00:10:19,000 --> 00:10:20,960 AT LEAST A THIRD OF PEOPLE HAVE 244 00:10:20,960 --> 00:10:24,400 ABSOLUTELY NO SYMPTOMS AND NEVER 245 00:10:24,400 --> 00:10:25,560 DEVELOP SYMPTOMS. 246 00:10:25,560 --> 00:10:27,360 ANOTHER UNUSUAL ASPECT THAT WE 247 00:10:27,360 --> 00:10:29,560 DID NOT FULLY APPRECIATE UNTIL A 248 00:10:29,560 --> 00:10:31,800 FEW MONTHS INTO THE OUTBREAK IN 249 00:10:31,800 --> 00:10:35,000 THE UNITED STATES THAT ALMOST 250 00:10:35,000 --> 00:10:37,520 60% OF ALL TRANSMISSION RELATE 251 00:10:37,520 --> 00:10:39,280 FROM SOMEONE WHO HAS NO 252 00:10:39,280 --> 00:10:40,360 SYMPTOMS. 253 00:10:40,360 --> 00:10:42,360 EITHER SOMEONE WHO NEVER 254 00:10:42,360 --> 00:10:44,760 DEVELOPED A SYMPTOM OR SOMEONE 255 00:10:44,760 --> 00:10:47,240 IN THE PRESYSTEMATIC STAGE. 256 00:10:47,240 --> 00:10:51,040 PREVENTION IS MULTI-FACETED. 257 00:10:51,040 --> 00:10:53,560 THE HALLMARK IS VACCINATION WITH 258 00:10:53,560 --> 00:10:55,960 A BOOST BUT AS SHOWN ON THIS 259 00:10:55,960 --> 00:10:57,120 SLIDE OTHER MEANS IMPORTANTLY 260 00:10:57,120 --> 00:11:00,160 THE WEARING OF MASKS AND TESTING 261 00:11:00,160 --> 00:11:05,280 AND ACTINGS ON RESULTS, PHYSICAL 262 00:11:05,280 --> 00:11:05,680 DISTANCING. 263 00:11:05,680 --> 00:11:06,960 HAND HYGIENE. 264 00:11:06,960 --> 00:11:10,120 STAYING OUT OF SAME IF YOU'RE 265 00:11:10,120 --> 00:11:11,080 SICK. 266 00:11:11,080 --> 00:11:13,760 CLINICAL COURSE: AS I MENTIONED 267 00:11:13,760 --> 00:11:16,360 MANY PEOPLE NEVER GET SYMPTOMS. 268 00:11:16,360 --> 00:11:19,160 FOR THOSE WHO DO PRESENT VERY 269 00:11:19,160 --> 00:11:25,440 MUCH LIKE A FLU-LIKE SYMPTOM 270 00:11:25,440 --> 00:11:29,160 WITH ONE EXCEPTION, A LOSS OF 271 00:11:29,160 --> 00:11:30,920 SMELL AND TASTE AND MIGHT LINGER 272 00:11:30,920 --> 00:11:33,240 FOLLOWING THE ACUTE PHASE. 273 00:11:33,240 --> 00:11:35,240 AGAIN FOR THOSE WHO DEVELOP 274 00:11:35,240 --> 00:11:38,280 SYMPTOMS ABOUT 80% ARE MILD TO 275 00:11:38,280 --> 00:11:39,760 MODERATE. 276 00:11:39,760 --> 00:11:43,440 ABOUT 15% TO 20% ARE SEVERE OR 277 00:11:43,440 --> 00:11:46,880 CRITICAL LEADING TO A WIDE RANGE 278 00:11:46,880 --> 00:11:48,960 OF CASE FATALITIES. 279 00:11:48,960 --> 00:11:53,200 UP TO 20% IN THOSE REQUIRING 280 00:11:53,200 --> 00:11:57,320 HOSPITAL VENTILATION I MEAN 281 00:11:57,320 --> 00:11:58,960 MECHANICAL VENTILATION. 282 00:11:58,960 --> 00:12:01,160 THOSE WHO GET SEVERE DISEASE 283 00:12:01,160 --> 00:12:03,760 FALL INTO A COUPLE OF CATEGORIES 284 00:12:03,760 --> 00:12:05,760 BASED ON THEIR INCREASE. 285 00:12:05,760 --> 00:12:08,840 OBVIOUSLY OLDER ADULTS, THE 286 00:12:08,840 --> 00:12:21,040 RATHER EXTREME ELDE EX-- EXTREME ELDERLY. 287 00:12:21,040 --> 00:12:24,120 THE MANIFESTATIONS ARE DOMINATED 288 00:12:24,120 --> 00:12:29,040 BY THE ACUTE RESPIRATORY 289 00:12:29,040 --> 00:12:30,120 DISTRESS SYNDROME. 290 00:12:30,120 --> 00:12:31,920 HOWEVER AS MORE EXPERIENCE 291 00:12:31,920 --> 00:12:35,160 ACCRUES WE KNOW THERE ARE 292 00:12:35,160 --> 00:12:37,360 NEUROLOGICAL, CARDIAC, ACUTE 293 00:12:37,360 --> 00:12:40,560 KIDNEY DISORDERS. 294 00:12:40,560 --> 00:12:43,720 PATHOGENIC EVENTS IN MULTIPLE 295 00:12:43,720 --> 00:12:46,960 ORGAN SYMPTOMS AND HYPER 296 00:12:46,960 --> 00:12:52,600 INFLAMMATION ALMOST AND HYPER 297 00:12:52,600 --> 00:12:54,360 INFLAMMATORY RESPONSE. 298 00:12:54,360 --> 00:12:59,760 AND I ALREADY MENTIONED THE 299 00:12:59,760 --> 00:13:02,040 MULTI-INFLAMMATORY SYSTEM IN 300 00:13:02,040 --> 00:13:02,560 CHILDREN. 301 00:13:02,560 --> 00:13:04,600 THERE ARE POST COVID CONDITIONS. 302 00:13:04,600 --> 00:13:06,760 SOME ARE READILY EXPLAINABLE. 303 00:13:06,760 --> 00:13:09,600 IF SOMEONE HAS A GREAT DEGREE OF 304 00:13:09,600 --> 00:13:11,880 ORGAN SYSTEM DYSFUNCTION 305 00:13:11,880 --> 00:13:16,840 REQUIRING PROLONGED 306 00:13:16,840 --> 00:13:18,120 HOSPITALIZATION. 307 00:13:18,120 --> 00:13:21,520 OFTEN ORGAN SYSTEM DAMAGE 308 00:13:21,520 --> 00:13:26,360 EXPLAINS A DIMINISHED PULMONARY 309 00:13:26,360 --> 00:13:26,760 FUNCTION. 310 00:13:26,760 --> 00:13:30,520 HOWEVER THERE ARE A CONSIDERABLE 311 00:13:30,520 --> 00:13:32,560 NUMBER OF PATIENTS WHO HAVE 312 00:13:32,560 --> 00:13:33,960 SIGNS AND SYMPTOMS THAT YOU 313 00:13:33,960 --> 00:13:36,560 CANNOT COMPLETELY EXPLAIN BY A 314 00:13:36,560 --> 00:13:40,560 READILY APPARENT PATHO BEGINIC 315 00:13:40,560 --> 00:13:40,800 PROCESS. 316 00:13:40,800 --> 00:13:43,440 THIS IS REFERRED TO AS LONG * 317 00:13:43,440 --> 00:13:44,360 COVID. 318 00:13:44,360 --> 00:13:45,760 THESE ARE SOME OF THE SYMPTOMS 319 00:13:45,760 --> 00:13:48,960 AND SIGNS OF LONG COVID. 320 00:13:48,960 --> 00:13:53,760 DOMINATED BY EXTREME FATIGUE, 321 00:13:53,760 --> 00:13:59,320 MUSCLE ACHES, LIGHT HEADEDNESS, 322 00:13:59,320 --> 00:14:01,320 AUTONOMIC DISTURBANCES SUCH AS 323 00:14:01,320 --> 00:14:03,680 TEMPERATURE REGULATION, MOOD 324 00:14:03,680 --> 00:14:05,880 CHANGES, SLEEP DISORDERS AND 325 00:14:05,880 --> 00:14:08,200 BRAIN FOG OR COGNITIVE 326 00:14:08,200 --> 00:14:10,320 IMPAIRMENT PARTICULARLY THE 327 00:14:10,320 --> 00:14:13,200 INABILITY TO FOCUS OR 328 00:14:13,200 --> 00:14:14,160 CONCENTRATE. 329 00:14:14,160 --> 00:14:18,240 THE MEDICAL MANAGEMENT THE 330 00:14:18,240 --> 00:14:21,400 CONTROL OF SYMPTOMS SUCH AS WITH 331 00:14:21,400 --> 00:14:22,200 ANTIINFLAMMATORY. 332 00:14:22,200 --> 00:14:23,600 MOST PEOPLE WHO STAY AT HOME 333 00:14:23,600 --> 00:14:27,080 WITH FEVER OR ACHES ARE WELL 334 00:14:27,080 --> 00:14:28,520 CONTROLLED ON THIS. 335 00:14:28,520 --> 00:14:31,120 THOSE WHO HAVE MILD SYMPTOMS NOT 336 00:14:31,120 --> 00:14:32,760 REQUIRING END ORGAN SUPPORT 337 00:14:32,760 --> 00:14:34,240 WHICH MUST BE GIVEN IN THE 338 00:14:34,240 --> 00:14:34,920 HOSPITAL. 339 00:14:34,920 --> 00:14:38,200 USUALLY THINGS LIKE MECHANICAL 340 00:14:38,200 --> 00:14:39,880 VENTILATION, DIALYSIS AND OTHER 341 00:14:39,880 --> 00:14:42,200 SUPPORT OF ORGAN SYSTEMS THAT 342 00:14:42,200 --> 00:14:43,320 ARE FAILING. 343 00:14:43,320 --> 00:14:45,760 NOW WE'RE GOING TO FOCUS ON ONE 344 00:14:45,760 --> 00:14:51,720 OF THE THERAPIES APPROACHES. 345 00:14:51,720 --> 00:14:52,440 ANTIVIRALS. 346 00:14:52,440 --> 00:14:55,480 ONE CAN THINK OF THERAPY IN TWO 347 00:14:55,480 --> 00:14:56,640 MAJOR PILLARS. 348 00:14:56,640 --> 00:14:59,080 ONE, TARGETING THE VIRUS ITSELF. 349 00:14:59,080 --> 00:15:03,160 WE NOW HAVE A NUMBER OF APPROVED 350 00:15:03,160 --> 00:15:04,760 LIKE REMDESIVIR FULLY APPROVED 351 00:15:04,760 --> 00:15:09,640 BY THE FDA. 352 00:15:09,640 --> 00:15:16,560 RECENTLY PAXLOVID AND SEVERAL 353 00:15:16,560 --> 00:15:18,280 MONOCLONAL ANTIBODIES THAT HAVE 354 00:15:18,280 --> 00:15:20,160 BEEN USED SUCCESSFULLY AT LEAST 355 00:15:20,160 --> 00:15:22,560 WITH THE DELTA VARIENT. 356 00:15:22,560 --> 00:15:24,920 I'M GOING TO GET BACK TO OMICRON 357 00:15:24,920 --> 00:15:26,080 IN A MOMENT. 358 00:15:26,080 --> 00:15:28,440 BUT WITH PEOPLE WITH ADVANCED 359 00:15:28,440 --> 00:15:30,360 DISEASE OFTEN YOU HAVE TO 360 00:15:30,360 --> 00:15:31,800 MODERATE THE RESPONSE. 361 00:15:31,800 --> 00:15:34,560 SUCH AS WITH DEXAMETHASONE OR 362 00:15:34,560 --> 00:15:38,760 OTHER BLOCKERS OF PROCESSES SUCH 363 00:15:38,760 --> 00:15:42,880 AS -. 364 00:15:42,880 --> 00:15:45,160 NOW THE HALLMARK OF THE 365 00:15:45,160 --> 00:15:47,320 SUCCESSFUL RESPONSE. 366 00:15:47,320 --> 00:15:49,560 NAMELY VACCINES. 367 00:15:49,560 --> 00:15:51,960 RIGHT NOW IT'S VERY, VERY CLEAR 368 00:15:51,960 --> 00:15:56,840 WITH GOOD JUSTIFICATION THAT THE 369 00:15:56,840 --> 00:16:02,960 DEVELOPMENT OF VACCINES FOR SARS 370 00:16:02,960 --> 00:16:04,880 CO-V2 ARE THE MOST IMPORTANT 371 00:16:04,880 --> 00:16:06,440 BREAKTHROUGH OF THE YEAR OF 372 00:16:06,440 --> 00:16:07,040 2020. 373 00:16:07,040 --> 00:16:10,960 WHICH IS THE REASON WHY SCIENCE 374 00:16:10,960 --> 00:16:12,600 MAGAZINE DEEMED IT AS SUCH. 375 00:16:12,600 --> 00:16:15,360 IT WAS A COMBINATION OF MANY 376 00:16:15,360 --> 00:16:18,200 YEARS OF BASIC RESEARCH IN 377 00:16:18,200 --> 00:16:20,160 DEVELOPING PLATFORM TECHNOLOGIES 378 00:16:20,160 --> 00:16:24,680 SUCH AS THE mRNA TECHNOLOGY AS 379 00:16:24,680 --> 00:16:26,720 WELL AS DESIGN GETTING THE 380 00:16:26,720 --> 00:16:29,960 PROPER CONFIRMATION OF THE 381 00:16:29,960 --> 00:16:32,920 PREFUSION SPIKE PROTEIN TO ALLOW 382 00:16:32,920 --> 00:16:35,400 FOR A HIGH DEGREE. 383 00:16:35,400 --> 00:16:39,040 AND SO NOW IN THIS COUNTRY AND 384 00:16:39,040 --> 00:16:43,480 MORE WORLDWIDE WE NOW HAVE THREE 385 00:16:43,480 --> 00:16:46,560 SEPARATE PLATFORMS, FIVE OF THE 386 00:16:46,560 --> 00:16:51,680 SIX IMOGENS USE THE PROGRAM 387 00:16:51,680 --> 00:16:54,920 DEVELOPED BY BARNEY GRAHAM AND 388 00:16:54,920 --> 00:16:58,040 JOHN AND OTHERS IN THE VRC. 389 00:16:58,040 --> 00:17:00,520 THE DEVELOPERS ARE SHOWN INTO 390 00:17:00,520 --> 00:17:02,960 THE COLUMN NEXT TO THE LEFT AND 391 00:17:02,960 --> 00:17:06,720 THE STATUS AS YOU KNOW THE BIOIN 392 00:17:06,720 --> 00:17:09,160 TECH FULLY APPROVED WITH THE 393 00:17:09,160 --> 00:17:10,240 BLA. 394 00:17:10,240 --> 00:17:16,400 MODENA AND J & AJ AND OTHERS. 395 00:17:16,400 --> 00:17:19,960 ON THEIR WAY TO APPLYING FOR AN 396 00:17:19,960 --> 00:17:21,080 EUA. 397 00:17:21,080 --> 00:17:23,360 LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT THE HISTORY 398 00:17:23,360 --> 00:17:25,080 OF THESE VACCINES. 399 00:17:25,080 --> 00:17:27,520 FIRST THE EFFICACY IN CLINICAL 400 00:17:27,520 --> 00:17:29,760 TRIALS. 401 00:17:29,760 --> 00:17:31,960 THESE ARE THE ORIGINAL PAPERS. 402 00:17:31,960 --> 00:17:36,160 THE RATHER STRIKING AND VERY 403 00:17:36,160 --> 00:17:37,640 WELCOMED RESULTS OF THE 404 00:17:37,640 --> 00:17:39,200 MULTI-THOUSAND CLINICAL TRIALS 405 00:17:39,200 --> 00:17:45,760 DONE ON THE mRNAs WITH 95% 406 00:17:45,760 --> 00:17:50,040 AND 94% EFFICACY. 407 00:17:50,040 --> 00:17:53,120 J&J HAD A DIFFERENT PROFILE. 408 00:17:53,120 --> 00:17:55,120 DONE IN MANY DIFFERENT COUNTRIES 409 00:17:55,120 --> 00:17:58,920 AND SHOWED A 72% EFFICACY 410 00:17:58,920 --> 00:18:01,360 OVER-ALL VERSUS MODERATE TO 411 00:18:01,360 --> 00:18:05,960 SEVERE DISEASE IN COVID-19 WITH 412 00:18:05,960 --> 00:18:09,000 AN 85% EFFICACY IN ALL REGIONS 413 00:18:09,000 --> 00:18:11,960 OF THE WORLD STUDIED. 414 00:18:11,960 --> 00:18:14,000 THE THIN THAT IS MOST GRATIFYING 415 00:18:14,000 --> 00:18:17,520 ABOUT ALL OF THIS IS THE 416 00:18:17,520 --> 00:18:19,040 EXTRAORDINARY REAL WORLD 417 00:18:19,040 --> 00:18:21,720 EFFICACY WHICH REALLY IS NOW 418 00:18:21,720 --> 00:18:24,720 DEFINED AS EFFECTIVENESS NAMELY 419 00:18:24,720 --> 00:18:27,400 WHEN YOU DO A CLINICAL TRIAL 420 00:18:27,400 --> 00:18:29,680 OFTEN THE RESULTS OF THE TRIAL 421 00:18:29,680 --> 00:18:31,720 ARE ALWAYS BETTER AT WHAT 422 00:18:31,720 --> 00:18:33,360 HAPPENS IN THE WHEEL WORLD. 423 00:18:33,360 --> 00:18:37,120 BUT WE'RE * SEEING REAL WORLD 424 00:18:37,120 --> 00:18:38,160 EFFICACY THAT IS STRIKING. 425 00:18:38,160 --> 00:18:41,960 I CAN GIVE YOU PAPER AND PAPER 426 00:18:41,960 --> 00:18:43,560 BUT IT'S BEST SAID THAT IF YOU 427 00:18:43,560 --> 00:18:48,040 LOOK IN OCTOBER OF 2021 AND THE 428 00:18:48,040 --> 00:18:51,160 COMPARISON BETWEEN UNVACCINATED 429 00:18:51,160 --> 00:18:52,760 PEOPLE IN THE UNITED STATES 430 00:18:52,760 --> 00:18:55,160 COMPARED TO FULLY VACCINATED 431 00:18:55,160 --> 00:18:58,480 PEOPLE IS A 5 TIME INCREASE RISK 432 00:18:58,480 --> 00:19:00,360 OF TESTING POSITIVE. 433 00:19:00,360 --> 00:19:03,920 12 TIME INCREASED RISK OF BEING 434 00:19:03,920 --> 00:19:05,480 HOSPITALIZED AND 14 TIMES 435 00:19:05,480 --> 00:19:07,560 INCREASED RISK OF DYING IF 436 00:19:07,560 --> 00:19:09,440 YOU'RE UNVACCINATED COMPARED TO 437 00:19:09,440 --> 00:19:12,920 A FULLY VACCINATED PERSON. 438 00:19:12,920 --> 00:19:15,760 NOW WE'RE ALL AWARE OF THE 439 00:19:15,760 --> 00:19:20,440 IMPORTANCE OF BOOSTER SHOTS. 440 00:19:20,440 --> 00:19:22,360 WHY IS THAT THE CASE. 441 00:19:22,360 --> 00:19:26,040 IF YOU LOOK AT THE HIGH DEGREE 442 00:19:26,040 --> 00:19:28,480 OF EFFECTIVENESS IN THE 443 00:19:28,480 --> 00:19:31,600 COMMUNITY WHICH I JUST MENTIONED 444 00:19:31,600 --> 00:19:34,920 IN ALL THREE OF THE APPROVED OR 445 00:19:34,920 --> 00:19:38,200 AT LEAST EMERGENCY AUTHORIZED 446 00:19:38,200 --> 00:19:39,400 VACCINES IN THE UNITED STATES 447 00:19:39,400 --> 00:19:47,080 THE EFFICACY OR EFFECTIVENESS 448 00:19:47,080 --> 00:19:48,880 WANES OVER TIME. 449 00:19:48,880 --> 00:19:52,840 IT GOES DOWN FROM 88 TO 48%. 450 00:19:52,840 --> 00:19:55,720 AND AGAINST DEATH IT GOES DOWN 451 00:19:55,720 --> 00:19:56,520 ALSO. 452 00:19:56,520 --> 00:19:58,760 IT IS BETTER PROTECTIVE AGAINST 453 00:19:58,760 --> 00:20:04,440 SEVERE DISEASE BUT CLEARLY FIRST 454 00:20:04,440 --> 00:20:07,160 NOTICED IN ISRAEL AND NOW VERY 455 00:20:07,160 --> 00:20:09,360 CLEAR IN THE UNITED STATES THAT 456 00:20:09,360 --> 00:20:11,800 AS HIGH AS THE EFFECTIVENESS IS 457 00:20:11,800 --> 00:20:14,280 WE NEED A BOOST. 458 00:20:14,280 --> 00:20:16,240 NOW, LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT THE 459 00:20:16,240 --> 00:20:17,600 DATA OF BOOSTING. 460 00:20:17,600 --> 00:20:20,200 THERE ARE TWO THINGS THAT YOU 461 00:20:20,200 --> 00:20:20,640 MEASURE. 462 00:20:20,640 --> 00:20:25,880 ONE IS THE NEUTRALIZING ANTIBODY 463 00:20:25,880 --> 00:20:28,160 TIGHTERS AGAINST THE VACCINE 464 00:20:28,160 --> 00:20:31,920 MEASURED BY PSEUDO VIRUS ASSAYS 465 00:20:31,920 --> 00:20:34,480 OR WHOLE LIVE VIRUS ASSAYS OR 466 00:20:34,480 --> 00:20:36,280 THE CLINICAL PRESENTATIONS AND 467 00:20:36,280 --> 00:20:38,160 THE CLINICAL EFFECT. 468 00:20:38,160 --> 00:20:42,600 LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT THE INVITRO 469 00:20:42,600 --> 00:20:43,400 ANTIBODY STUDIES. 470 00:20:43,400 --> 00:20:46,320 THIS IS A SLIDE THAT LOOKS AT 471 00:20:46,320 --> 00:20:51,280 WHAT THE PREBOOSTER LEVEL OF 472 00:20:51,280 --> 00:20:53,000 ANTIBODIES ARE AGAINST DELTA. 473 00:20:53,000 --> 00:20:55,160 WHICH IS THE VARIENT THAT IS 474 00:20:55,160 --> 00:20:58,520 CAUSED THE MAJOR PROBLEM 475 00:20:58,520 --> 00:21:00,880 IMMEDIATELY PRIOR TO OMICRON. 476 00:21:00,880 --> 00:21:03,280 IT IS AT 55 IN THE YOUNGER 477 00:21:03,280 --> 00:21:07,120 INDIVIDUALS AND GOES WELL ABOVE 478 00:21:07,120 --> 00:21:09,960 800 -- 28 DAYS AFTER THE THIRD 479 00:21:09,960 --> 00:21:11,760 SHOT BOOST OF THE MODENA 480 00:21:11,760 --> 00:21:12,160 PRODUCT. 481 00:21:12,160 --> 00:21:14,880 IF YOU LOOK AT THE ELDERLY IT 482 00:21:14,880 --> 00:21:19,840 GOES UP FROM 32 TO 706. 483 00:21:19,840 --> 00:21:23,440 CLEARLY A MAJOR RECONSTITUTION. 484 00:21:23,440 --> 00:21:29,120 LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT THE PFIZER 485 00:21:29,120 --> 00:21:33,240 -- IN THE GREEN -- FOCUS ON 486 00:21:33,240 --> 00:21:35,200 B1617 WHICH IS ACTUALLY DELTA. 487 00:21:35,200 --> 00:21:40,360 AGAIN IN YOUNGER INDIVIDUALS 241 488 00:21:40,360 --> 00:21:42,360 ONE MONTH AFTER DOSE TWO WHICH 489 00:21:42,360 --> 00:21:48,160 SHOULD BE THE PEEK OF THEIR 490 00:21:48,160 --> 00:21:51,680 RESPONSE -- * IN THE ELDERLY 491 00:21:51,680 --> 00:21:56,360 AGAIN IN THE BLUE BARS IT GOES 492 00:21:56,360 --> 00:21:59,240 GREAT 123 TO 1479. 493 00:21:59,240 --> 00:22:00,960 NOW LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT SOME OF 494 00:22:00,960 --> 00:22:02,640 THE CLINICAL STUDIES THAT 495 00:22:02,640 --> 00:22:05,480 INDICATE THAT BOOSTER SHOTS 496 00:22:05,480 --> 00:22:08,240 RECONSTITUTE THE DIMINISHED 497 00:22:08,240 --> 00:22:15,160 PROTECTION AGAINST SYSTE SYSTEMATIC 498 00:22:15,160 --> 00:22:16,880 INFECTION, SEVERE DISEASE AND 499 00:22:16,880 --> 00:22:17,360 DEATH. 500 00:22:17,360 --> 00:22:19,040 THESE ARE REPRESENTATIVE SLIDES 501 00:22:19,040 --> 00:22:21,320 THAT ARE CLEARLY BEING REPEATED 502 00:22:21,320 --> 00:22:23,120 IN ANY COUNTRY THAT USES 503 00:22:23,120 --> 00:22:23,520 BOOSTER. 504 00:22:23,520 --> 00:22:27,880 IF YOU LOOK AT THE CALM LAIVE 505 00:22:27,880 --> 00:22:30,440 INCIDENTS * OF HOSPITALIZATIONS, 506 00:22:30,440 --> 00:22:33,320 SEVERE COVID AND DEATH LOOKING 507 00:22:33,320 --> 00:22:36,560 AT THE PINK TO RED IS WHAT YOU 508 00:22:36,560 --> 00:22:40,760 SEE AFTER TWO DOSES OF AN mRNA 509 00:22:40,760 --> 00:22:42,160 IN THIS CASE THE PFIZER. 510 00:22:42,160 --> 00:22:47,960 LOOK AT THE BLUISH LINES WHICH 511 00:22:47,960 --> 00:22:49,680 ARE AFTER THREE DOSES NAMELY A 512 00:22:49,680 --> 00:22:50,760 BOOST. 513 00:22:50,760 --> 00:22:54,160 IF YOU LOOK AGAIN HERE IN THIS 514 00:22:54,160 --> 00:22:56,520 STUDY THAT COMES FROM MULTIPLE 515 00:22:56,520 --> 00:23:00,040 DIFFERENT COUNTRIES AND IS 516 00:23:00,040 --> 00:23:02,680 CUMULATIVE INCIDENTS IT SAYS 517 00:23:02,680 --> 00:23:05,720 PLACEBO BUT THAT MEANS TWO DOSES 518 00:23:05,720 --> 00:23:08,800 AND A PLACEBO VERSUS TWO DOSES 519 00:23:08,800 --> 00:23:13,320 AND THEN THE THIRD BOOST OF AN 520 00:23:13,320 --> 00:23:13,760 mRNA. 521 00:23:13,760 --> 00:23:16,360 A STRIKING DIFFERENCE IN THE 522 00:23:16,360 --> 00:23:17,720 CUMULATIVE INCIDENCE OF 523 00:23:17,720 --> 00:23:19,000 INFECTION. 524 00:23:19,000 --> 00:23:22,280 FOR THAT REASON THE CDC IS NOW 525 00:23:22,280 --> 00:23:24,320 EXPANDED THE RECOMMENDATION FOR 526 00:23:24,320 --> 00:23:26,760 BOOSTERS WE'LL CROSS VIRTUALLY 527 00:23:26,760 --> 00:23:28,880 EVERYONE NOW THAT HAS BEEN GIVEN 528 00:23:28,880 --> 00:23:32,120 THE PRIMARY WITH SOME RECENT 529 00:23:32,120 --> 00:23:34,680 DECISIONS BY THE FDA TO EXPAND 530 00:23:34,680 --> 00:23:37,200 THAT EVEN TO YOUNGER 531 00:23:37,200 --> 00:23:37,920 INDIVIDUALS. 532 00:23:37,920 --> 00:23:38,480 OKAY. 533 00:23:38,480 --> 00:23:40,360 NOW WE HAVE THE CHALLENGE OF 534 00:23:40,360 --> 00:23:42,960 THESE VARIANTS WHICH REALLY 535 00:23:42,960 --> 00:23:44,760 RELATE A LITTLE BIT TO WHAT I 536 00:23:44,760 --> 00:23:47,360 SHOWED YOU ABOUT DELTA A MOMENT 537 00:23:47,360 --> 00:23:48,040 AGO. 538 00:23:48,040 --> 00:23:51,840 THESE ARE SOME OF THE VARIANTS 539 00:23:51,840 --> 00:23:56,240 THAT WE HAVE FACED. 540 00:23:56,240 --> 00:24:00,680 BETA THAT STARTED OFF IN SUB 541 00:24:00,680 --> 00:24:03,000 SAHARAN AFRICA AND THEN WE GOT 542 00:24:03,000 --> 00:24:03,800 DELTA. 543 00:24:03,800 --> 00:24:07,760 DELTA TOOK OVER BECAUSE ITS HIGH 544 00:24:07,760 --> 00:24:11,160 DEGREE OF ABILITY TO SPREAD FROM 545 00:24:11,160 --> 00:24:13,920 PERSON TO PERSON. 546 00:24:13,920 --> 00:24:17,160 IT WAS TWICE AS GREAT AS ALPHA 547 00:24:17,160 --> 00:24:19,040 WHICH IT BUMPED OFF THE TABLE 548 00:24:19,040 --> 00:24:23,640 AND THE VIRAL LOADS WERE UP TO A 549 00:24:23,640 --> 00:24:25,200 THOUSAND TIMES GREATER THAN 550 00:24:25,200 --> 00:24:26,440 ALPHA. 551 00:24:26,440 --> 00:24:30,360 LEADING TO ITS CLEAR-CUT 552 00:24:30,360 --> 00:24:32,000 INCREASED TRANSMISSION. 553 00:24:32,000 --> 00:24:34,400 IT RAPIDLY TOOK OVER THE WORLD. 554 00:24:34,400 --> 00:24:38,360 SEEN IN OVER 155 COUNTRIES. 555 00:24:38,360 --> 00:24:41,960 AND IT WENT WAY UP TO 99% OF ALL 556 00:24:41,960 --> 00:24:45,120 THE VARIANTS IN THE COUNTRY WERE 557 00:24:45,120 --> 00:24:45,640 DELTA. 558 00:24:45,640 --> 00:24:49,520 BUT NOW IF YOU LOOK FROM 559 00:24:49,520 --> 00:24:51,800 DECEMBER 4 THROUGH DECEMBER 25 560 00:24:51,800 --> 00:24:54,760 JUST A FEW WEEKS IT TELLS YOU 561 00:24:54,760 --> 00:24:58,600 WHAT WE ALL KNOW THAT IT IS 562 00:24:58,600 --> 00:25:00,880 BEING REPLACED BY OMICRON AND 563 00:25:00,880 --> 00:25:02,440 THAT IS THE VARIENT THAT WE'RE 564 00:25:02,440 --> 00:25:05,080 DEALING WITH NOW WHICH HAS SOME 565 00:25:05,080 --> 00:25:10,320 DIFFERENT CHARACTERISTICS. 566 00:25:10,320 --> 00:25:11,040 -- WHY 567 00:25:11,040 --> 00:25:12,880 IS OMICRON DIFFERENT? 568 00:25:12,880 --> 00:25:14,960 IF YOU LOOK AT THE SPIKE PROTEIN 569 00:25:14,960 --> 00:25:17,880 ON THE LEFT THE OMICRON ON THE 570 00:25:17,880 --> 00:25:19,760 RIGHT YOU SEE RIGHT OFF THAT 571 00:25:19,760 --> 00:25:21,640 THOSE LITTLE LINES THAT ARE 572 00:25:21,640 --> 00:25:26,360 COMING OUT ARE AMINO ACID 573 00:25:26,360 --> 00:25:28,120 SUBSTITUTIONS RESULTING FROM 574 00:25:28,120 --> 00:25:28,600 MUTATIONS. 575 00:25:28,600 --> 00:25:30,160 THERE ARE MANY MORE WITH 576 00:25:30,160 --> 00:25:30,960 OMICRON. 577 00:25:30,960 --> 00:25:32,480 50 IN TOTAL. 578 00:25:32,480 --> 00:25:34,960 30 IN THE SPIKE PROTEIN AND 10 579 00:25:34,960 --> 00:25:38,280 IN THE RECEPTOR BINDING DOMAIN 580 00:25:38,280 --> 00:25:42,560 WHICH LEADS TO DIFFERENCES IN 581 00:25:42,560 --> 00:25:45,120 TRANSMISSIBILITY, SEVERITY, 582 00:25:45,120 --> 00:25:47,760 VACCINE EVASION OF IMMUNITY AND 583 00:25:47,760 --> 00:25:49,800 POTENTIAL IMPACT ON 584 00:25:49,800 --> 00:25:50,760 THERAPEUTICS. 585 00:25:50,760 --> 00:25:52,160 LET'S TAKE A LOOK. 586 00:25:52,160 --> 00:25:53,560 THESE SLIDES SPEAK FOR 587 00:25:53,560 --> 00:25:54,360 THEMSELVES. 588 00:25:54,360 --> 00:25:58,280 IN EVERY COUNTRY THERE HAS BEEN 589 00:25:58,280 --> 00:26:00,760 A SHARP VERTICAL SPIKE AS SHOWN 590 00:26:00,760 --> 00:26:03,320 IN THE RED LINE WHICH IS OMICRON 591 00:26:03,320 --> 00:26:04,600 COMPARED TO THE BLUE LINE WHICH 592 00:26:04,600 --> 00:26:06,640 IS DELTA. 593 00:26:06,640 --> 00:26:11,760 NOTE SOUTH AFRICA SEEMS TO HAVE 594 00:26:11,760 --> 00:26:15,200 ALREADY PEAKED AND IS ON ITS WAY 595 00:26:15,200 --> 00:26:16,520 DOWN. 596 00:26:16,520 --> 00:26:18,280 HOPEFULLY THAT IS WHAT WE'LL SEE 597 00:26:18,280 --> 00:26:20,600 IN THE NEXT FEW WEEKS IN THIS 598 00:26:20,600 --> 00:26:21,440 COUNTRY. 599 00:26:21,440 --> 00:26:26,080 IT'S VERY CLEAR NOW FIRST HINTED 600 00:26:26,080 --> 00:26:28,160 AT IN SOUTH AFRICA BUT NOW 601 00:26:28,160 --> 00:26:31,720 CLEARLY IN THE UK AND ALREADY 602 00:26:31,720 --> 00:26:35,320 EVIDENCE IN THIS COUNTRY. 603 00:26:35,320 --> 00:26:38,400 BETA BLUE, DELL DO RED, OMICRON 604 00:26:38,400 --> 00:26:43,560 YELLOW AND COMPARE TO PORTION OF 605 00:26:43,560 --> 00:26:45,000 PEOPLE ADMITTED. 606 00:26:45,000 --> 00:26:46,400 ON OXYGEN. 607 00:26:46,400 --> 00:26:48,360 WITH SEVERE DISEASE. 608 00:26:48,360 --> 00:26:49,640 THE PROPORTION THAT DIED. 609 00:26:49,640 --> 00:26:54,400 THIS IS A LESS SEVERE VIRUS. 610 00:26:54,400 --> 00:26:57,160 LIKELY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF 611 00:26:57,160 --> 00:26:59,200 UNDERLYING IMMUNITY DUE TO 612 00:26:59,200 --> 00:27:04,760 INFECTION OR VACCINATION AS WELL 613 00:27:04,760 --> 00:27:12,000 AS A POSSIBLE DIMINUTION OF 614 00:27:12,000 --> 00:27:14,320 PATHOGENS OF THE VIRUS ITSELF. 615 00:27:14,320 --> 00:27:17,960 IT'S ALREADY SEEN IN THE UK, IN 616 00:27:17,960 --> 00:27:20,520 SCOTLAND, IN LONDON WHICH 617 00:27:20,520 --> 00:27:22,240 INTERESTINGLY WE HEARD TODAY 618 00:27:22,240 --> 00:27:24,520 THAT LONDON SEEMS TO HAVE 619 00:27:24,520 --> 00:27:27,760 ALREADY PEAKED WITH ITS VERTICAL 620 00:27:27,760 --> 00:27:28,280 SPIKE. 621 00:27:28,280 --> 00:27:30,720 THERE ARE EARLY SIGNALS THAT 622 00:27:30,720 --> 00:27:31,960 WE'RE SEEING THIS IN THE UPS 623 00:27:31,960 --> 00:27:34,480 FROM A STUDY IN HOUSTON. 624 00:27:34,480 --> 00:27:36,960 NOW IMPORTANTLY BACKING UP THE 625 00:27:36,960 --> 00:27:38,880 SUGGESTION THAT I MADE A LITTLE 626 00:27:38,880 --> 00:27:42,120 BIT AGO THAT THERE MAY BE 627 00:27:42,120 --> 00:27:57,400 ACTUALLY AN INHERENT LOWERING OF 628 00:27:57,400 --> 00:28:00,040 VIRALMENTS -- THAT WHEN YOU 629 00:28:00,040 --> 00:28:03,960 INFECT THEM THAT THE PATHOGENS 630 00:28:03,960 --> 00:28:06,240 IS MUCH DIFFERENT. 631 00:28:06,240 --> 00:28:08,200 OMICRON SEEMS TO REPLICATE VERY 632 00:28:08,200 --> 00:28:11,640 WELL IN THE UPPER AIRWAY AND 633 00:28:11,640 --> 00:28:15,240 BROWN SKY BUT * POORLY IN THE 634 00:28:15,240 --> 00:28:16,520 LUNG WHICH AGAIN ALTHOUGH YOU 635 00:28:16,520 --> 00:28:18,600 HAVE TO PUT THE CAVEATS THAT YOU 636 00:28:18,600 --> 00:28:20,600 HAVE WITH AN ANIMAL STUDY THIS 637 00:28:20,600 --> 00:28:23,240 IS PERFECTLY COMPATIBLE WITH A 638 00:28:23,240 --> 00:28:26,360 VERY HIGH DEGREE OF 639 00:28:26,360 --> 00:28:27,840 TRANSMISSIBILITY AND A LOWER 640 00:28:27,840 --> 00:28:30,000 DEGREE OF PATHOGENESIS. 641 00:28:30,000 --> 00:28:32,840 DOES IT EVADE IMMUNITY? 642 00:28:32,840 --> 00:28:33,760 WITHOUT A DOUBT. 643 00:28:33,760 --> 00:28:36,160 IF YOU LOOK AT THE OMICRON WAVE 644 00:28:36,160 --> 00:28:39,680 THE EFFECTIVENESS AGAINST SARCO 645 00:28:39,680 --> 00:28:44,600 V2 INFECTION GOES DOWN TO 33% UP 646 00:28:44,600 --> 00:28:45,800 FROM 80% PREOMICRON. 647 00:28:45,800 --> 00:28:48,920 IF YOU LOOK AT HOSPITALIZATIONS 648 00:28:48,920 --> 00:28:51,680 IT GOES DOWN STILL A DEGREE OF 649 00:28:51,680 --> 00:28:52,560 PROTECTION. 650 00:28:52,560 --> 00:28:57,240 70 IS NOT BAD BUT CLEARLY IT 651 00:28:57,240 --> 00:28:59,000 GOES DOWN WHEN YOU TALK ABOUT 652 00:28:59,000 --> 00:29:00,280 HOSPITALIZATION. 653 00:29:00,280 --> 00:29:02,040 FORTUNATELY FOR US LOOK AT WHAT 654 00:29:02,040 --> 00:29:05,160 HAPPENS WHEN YOU GIVE A THIRD 655 00:29:05,160 --> 00:29:08,840 SHOT BOOST OF AN mRNA 656 00:29:08,840 --> 00:29:11,200 VACCINATION WHERE YOU HAVE THE 657 00:29:11,200 --> 00:29:16,120 LOWER -- AND THEN IT GOES UP BY 658 00:29:16,120 --> 00:29:17,520 38 FOLD WITH THE BOOSTER. 659 00:29:17,520 --> 00:29:19,760 AGAIN A VERY, VERY STRONG 660 00:29:19,760 --> 00:29:21,720 ARGUMENT FOR BOOSTING 661 00:29:21,720 --> 00:29:23,160 INDIVIDUALS WHO HAVE BEEN FULLY 662 00:29:23,160 --> 00:29:25,120 VACCINATED. 663 00:29:25,120 --> 00:29:28,160 AGAIN A STUDY FROM UK HEALTH 664 00:29:28,160 --> 00:29:30,880 SECURITY AGENCY IN ENGLAND A 665 00:29:30,880 --> 00:29:32,360 REDUCTION IN THE RISK OF 666 00:29:32,360 --> 00:29:34,360 HOSPITALIZATION OF 81% FOLLOWING 667 00:29:34,360 --> 00:29:36,640 THE THIRD SHOT AND REDUCTION 668 00:29:36,640 --> 00:29:38,040 AGAINST HOSPITALIZATION IN 669 00:29:38,040 --> 00:29:41,280 ANOTHER STUDY OF 88%. 670 00:29:41,280 --> 00:29:43,640 SO WHAT IS THE BOTTOM LINE WITH 671 00:29:43,640 --> 00:29:45,960 OMICRON. 672 00:29:45,960 --> 00:29:48,880 THE VARIANT COMPROMISES THE 673 00:29:48,880 --> 00:29:51,840 EFFECTS OF THE TWO DOSE RNA FOR 674 00:29:51,840 --> 00:29:54,480 SURE AND REDUCES OVER-ALL 675 00:29:54,480 --> 00:29:54,840 PROTECTION. 676 00:29:54,840 --> 00:29:58,320 EVEN THOUGH AS I SHOWED YOU THIS 677 00:29:58,320 --> 00:29:59,920 CONSIDERABLE PROTECTION STILL 678 00:29:59,920 --> 00:30:01,360 REMAINING AGAINST SEVERE 679 00:30:01,360 --> 00:30:03,000 DISEASE. 680 00:30:03,000 --> 00:30:05,200 EARLY STUDIES INDICATE THAT 681 00:30:05,200 --> 00:30:09,480 BOOSTERS RECONSTITUTE ANTI 682 00:30:09,480 --> 00:30:12,360 BODIES AND ENHANCE PROTECTION 683 00:30:12,360 --> 00:30:14,360 AGAINST OMICRON. 684 00:30:14,360 --> 00:30:17,360 SO OUR REGIMENS APPEAR TO BE 685 00:30:17,360 --> 00:30:19,040 WORKING AND RIGHT NOW ALTHOUGH 686 00:30:19,040 --> 00:30:22,320 WE'RE MAKING A SPECIFIC BOOSTER 687 00:30:22,320 --> 00:30:26,520 IT APPEARS THAT BOOSTER AGAINST 688 00:30:26,520 --> 00:30:28,920 STRAINS CAN BRING UP THE 689 00:30:28,920 --> 00:30:30,440 PROTECTION EVEN AGAINST OMICRON. 690 00:30:30,440 --> 00:30:32,760 WHAT ABOUT THE POTENTIAL IMPACT 691 00:30:32,760 --> 00:30:35,480 ON THERAPEUTICS? SOME BAD NEWS 692 00:30:35,480 --> 00:30:36,760 AND SOME GOOD NEWS 693 00:30:36,760 --> 00:30:40,320 THE BAD NEWS IS THAT THE LILY 694 00:30:40,320 --> 00:30:43,560 AND REGENERON MONOCLONAL 695 00:30:43,560 --> 00:30:45,400 ANTIBODIES THAT WAS SO EFFECTIVE 696 00:30:45,400 --> 00:30:48,040 AGAINST DELTA DO NOT APPEAR TO 697 00:30:48,040 --> 00:30:49,560 BE EFFECTIVE AGAINST OMICRON. 698 00:30:49,560 --> 00:30:54,880 THE NEW ANTIBODY FROM GSK 699 00:30:54,880 --> 00:30:56,800 APPEARS TO BE QUITE EFFECTIVE 700 00:30:56,800 --> 00:31:02,360 AGAINST OMICRON AND 701 00:31:02,360 --> 00:31:04,760 AstraZeneca MONOCLONAL FOR 702 00:31:04,760 --> 00:31:10,320 PEOPLE WHO ARE IMMUNO 703 00:31:10,320 --> 00:31:12,400 COMPROMISED LOOKS GOOD AGAINST 704 00:31:12,400 --> 00:31:14,720 OMICRON. 705 00:31:14,720 --> 00:31:19,040 LUCKILY SOME OF THE VIRALS -- 706 00:31:19,040 --> 00:31:22,520 REMDESIVIR SEEM TO BE QUITE GOOD 707 00:31:22,520 --> 00:31:27,920 AGAINST THIS AT LEAST IN AN 708 00:31:27,920 --> 00:31:29,040 INVITRO SITUATION. 709 00:31:29,040 --> 00:31:31,560 WHAT ABOUT THE FUTURE? 710 00:31:31,560 --> 00:31:35,000 AGAIN WHAT IS THE END AGAIN FOR 711 00:31:35,000 --> 00:31:36,480 2022 AND BEYOND? 712 00:31:36,480 --> 00:31:38,080 WHEN YOU THINK ABOUT OUTBREAKS 713 00:31:38,080 --> 00:31:40,760 THERE IS A PANDEMIC PHASE. 714 00:31:40,760 --> 00:31:43,280 A DECLINE IN ACCELERATION. 715 00:31:43,280 --> 00:31:45,440 THERE IS CONTROL. 716 00:31:45,440 --> 00:31:47,000 ELIMINATION AND ERADICATION. 717 00:31:47,000 --> 00:31:48,880 LET'S LOOK AT HISTORY. 718 00:31:48,880 --> 00:31:51,520 WE'VE ONLY ERADICATED ONE 719 00:31:51,520 --> 00:31:53,520 PARTICULAR PATHOGEN AND THAT IS 720 00:31:53,520 --> 00:31:54,880 SMALL POX. 721 00:31:54,880 --> 00:31:57,680 WE'VE ELIMINATED NAMELY DIDN'T 722 00:31:57,680 --> 00:32:00,040 WIPE IT OFF THE PHASE OF THE 723 00:32:00,040 --> 00:32:02,120 EARTH SEVERAL IMPORTANT 724 00:32:02,120 --> 00:32:04,320 PATHOGENS. 725 00:32:04,320 --> 00:32:06,840 BACK VACCINATION. 726 00:32:06,840 --> 00:32:08,560 POLIO, MEASLES. 727 00:32:08,560 --> 00:32:10,120 EXCEPT FOR SMALL POCKETS OF 728 00:32:10,120 --> 00:32:11,520 COMMUNITIES THAT ARE UNDER 729 00:32:11,520 --> 00:32:12,120 VACCINATED. 730 00:32:12,120 --> 00:32:14,880 SO WHAT ARE WE LOOKING AT? 731 00:32:14,880 --> 00:32:16,920 IT'S ONLY ASPIRATIONAL TO THINK 732 00:32:16,920 --> 00:32:19,800 THAT WE'RE GOING TO ELIMINATE 733 00:32:19,800 --> 00:32:22,200 SARS CO-V2 SO WE'RE GOING TO 734 00:32:22,200 --> 00:32:24,160 LIVE WITH IT AND THAT MEANS 735 00:32:24,160 --> 00:32:25,320 CONTROL. 736 00:32:25,320 --> 00:32:27,880 SO WHAT LEVEL OF CONTROL DO WE 737 00:32:27,880 --> 00:32:30,880 HAVE? 738 00:32:30,880 --> 00:32:33,040 CERTAINLY 90,000 739 00:32:33,040 --> 00:32:35,320 HOSPITALIZATIONS THAT WE HAVE AS 740 00:32:35,320 --> 00:32:38,440 OF YESTERDAY IN THE HOSPITAL. 741 00:32:38,440 --> 00:32:42,440 1300 DEATHS AND 400,000 CASES IS 742 00:32:42,440 --> 00:32:44,960 NOT ADEQUATE CONTROL. 743 00:32:44,960 --> 00:32:48,080 WE'VE GOT TO GET IT DOWN TO A 744 00:32:48,080 --> 00:32:49,520 LOW LEVEL WITH THE 745 00:32:49,520 --> 00:32:51,160 HOSPITALIZATIONS AND DEATHS ARE 746 00:32:51,160 --> 00:32:54,440 SO LOW THAT IT DOESN'T INSTILL 747 00:32:54,440 --> 00:32:56,120 FEAR IN SOCIETY AND DISRUPT 748 00:32:56,120 --> 00:32:58,440 EVERYTHING THAT WE DO AND GETS 749 00:32:58,440 --> 00:33:00,200 TO THE POINT WHERE WE HAVE 750 00:33:00,200 --> 00:33:03,160 ENOUGH PEOPLE PROTECTED WITH 751 00:33:03,160 --> 00:33:05,760 VACCINATION AND ARE PRIOR 752 00:33:05,760 --> 00:33:09,640 INFECTION THAT * WE HAVE A VIRUS 753 00:33:09,640 --> 00:33:14,200 THAT WILL ASSUME A MUCH LOWER 754 00:33:14,200 --> 00:33:14,560 LEVEL. 755 00:33:14,560 --> 00:33:17,080 I'LL STOP THERE AND I'M HAPPY TO 756 00:33:17,080 --> 00:33:17,920 ANSWER QUESTIONS 757 00:33:17,920 --> 00:33:19,240 >> THANK YOU VERY MUCH, TONY. 758 00:33:19,240 --> 00:33:21,000 ONE OF THE QUESTIONS THAT HAS 759 00:33:21,000 --> 00:33:23,560 POPPED UP IS -- IS THERE ANY WAY 760 00:33:23,560 --> 00:33:27,840 OF PREDICTING WHO IS LIKELY TO 761 00:33:27,840 --> 00:33:30,400 DEVELOP CHRONIC FORMS OF COVID 762 00:33:30,400 --> 00:33:32,480 INFECTION? 763 00:33:32,480 --> 00:33:35,800 EITHER GENDER, GENOME OR IS 764 00:33:35,800 --> 00:33:37,120 THERE ANY EVIDENCE THAT PROVIDES 765 00:33:37,120 --> 00:33:41,480 SOME OF THAT INFORMATION? 766 00:33:41,480 --> 00:33:44,040 >> THE ANSWER RIGHT NOW I WOULD 767 00:33:44,040 --> 00:33:45,960 NOT SAY CHRONIC FORM OF 768 00:33:45,960 --> 00:33:46,320 INFECTION. 769 00:33:46,320 --> 00:33:51,880 I WOULD SAY LONG COVID SYSTEM 770 00:33:51,880 --> 00:33:54,320 TOLOGY FOLLOWING THE CLEARANCE 771 00:33:54,320 --> 00:33:55,040 OF INFECTION. 772 00:33:55,040 --> 00:33:57,240 THERE ARE SOME STUDIES ONGOING 773 00:33:57,240 --> 00:33:58,080 RIGHT NOW. 774 00:33:58,080 --> 00:33:59,680 THERE DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE 775 00:33:59,680 --> 00:34:00,760 ANYTHING STRIKING. 776 00:34:00,760 --> 00:34:02,480 THERE ARE SOME PRELIMINARY 777 00:34:02,480 --> 00:34:04,400 EVIDENCE THAT MAYBE WOMEN ARE 778 00:34:04,400 --> 00:34:06,680 MORE INFECT WITH LONG COVID THAN 779 00:34:06,680 --> 00:34:08,760 MEN BUT IT'S GOING TO REQUIRE 780 00:34:08,760 --> 00:34:14,040 MUCH, MUCH LARGER STUDIES. 781 00:34:14,040 --> 00:34:16,520 >> AND ALSO CONSIDERABLE 782 00:34:16,520 --> 00:34:21,520 INTEREST -- HOW DO WE GO ABOUT 783 00:34:21,520 --> 00:34:24,720 DETERMINING WHETHER NEW VARIANTS 784 00:34:24,720 --> 00:34:27,800 APPEAR AND TO WHAT EXTENT HAS 785 00:34:27,800 --> 00:34:31,040 THE SYSTEM FOR THEIR DETECTION 786 00:34:31,040 --> 00:34:35,680 BEEN REVVED UP OR AMPLIFIED? 787 00:34:35,680 --> 00:34:37,920 >> A YEAR AGO, TWO YEARS AGO 788 00:34:37,920 --> 00:34:40,200 WHEN IT WAS TERRIBLE IN THE 789 00:34:40,200 --> 00:34:43,960 SENSE THAT WE REALLY DIDN'T HAVE 790 00:34:43,960 --> 00:34:47,080 ADEQUATE ENOUGH GENOMIC 791 00:34:47,080 --> 00:34:48,280 SURVEILLANCE TO BE ABLE TO DO 792 00:34:48,280 --> 00:34:48,880 SOMETHING. 793 00:34:48,880 --> 00:34:51,760 THE CDC HAS GREATLY IMPROVED 794 00:34:51,760 --> 00:34:55,640 THEIR ABILITY NOW TO SEQUENCE A 795 00:34:55,640 --> 00:34:57,680 SUBSTANTIAL PROPORTION OF 796 00:34:57,680 --> 00:34:59,720 ISOLATES TO GIVE A GOOD FEEL FOR 797 00:34:59,720 --> 00:35:01,680 WHAT IS OUT THERE IN THE 798 00:35:01,680 --> 00:35:02,040 COMMUNITY. 799 00:35:02,040 --> 00:35:05,480 WHICH IS THE REASON WHY WE NOW 800 00:35:05,480 --> 00:35:08,680 KNOW THAT ACTUALLY DELTA STARTED 801 00:35:08,680 --> 00:35:12,320 OFF AT 1% OR 2% AND HAD A 802 00:35:12,320 --> 00:35:15,640 DOUBLING TIME SO THAT WE WERE UP 803 00:35:15,640 --> 00:35:16,080 TO 90%. 804 00:35:16,080 --> 00:35:19,040 RIGHT NOW THE DOUBLING TIME OF 805 00:35:19,040 --> 00:35:21,320 OMICRON IS ABOUT TWO DAYS AND 806 00:35:21,320 --> 00:35:24,240 THE CDC IS SHOWING NOW THAT EVEN 807 00:35:24,240 --> 00:35:27,280 THOUGH IT'S ABOUT 70 PLUS 808 00:35:27,280 --> 00:35:28,640 PERCENT THROUGHOUT THE COUNTRY 809 00:35:28,640 --> 00:35:30,920 THERE ARE MANY REGIONS THAT HAVE 810 00:35:30,920 --> 00:35:34,680 WELL OVER 90% AND THAT IS DUE TO 811 00:35:34,680 --> 00:35:36,760 THE SURVEILLANCE THAT WE'RE 812 00:35:36,760 --> 00:35:40,440 TALKING ABOUT. 813 00:35:40,440 --> 00:35:42,560 >> IT'S ALSO BEEN AN INTEREST IN 814 00:35:42,560 --> 00:35:46,520 HOW DO WE KNOW WHEN A -- WHAT IS 815 00:35:46,520 --> 00:35:51,000 THE END OF A PANDEMIC LOOK LIKE? 816 00:35:51,000 --> 00:35:53,640 OR WHAT ARE THE DETERMINANTS 817 00:35:53,640 --> 00:35:55,680 THAT LEAD TO IDENTIFYING THE END 818 00:35:55,680 --> 00:35:57,240 OF THE PANDEMIC? 819 00:35:57,240 --> 00:35:59,160 >> WHEN I TRY TO -- THE ANSWER 820 00:35:59,160 --> 00:36:00,800 IS WE DON'T KNOW WHAT IT'S GOING 821 00:36:00,800 --> 00:36:01,600 TO BE. 822 00:36:01,600 --> 00:36:04,160 WE'LL KNOW IT WHEN IT HAPPENS. 823 00:36:04,160 --> 00:36:06,400 THAT DOESN'T SEEM LIKE A VERY 824 00:36:06,400 --> 00:36:08,120 SCIENTIFIC APPROACH BUT I TRY TO 825 00:36:08,120 --> 00:36:10,440 BREAK IT DOWN TO THE AUDIENCE BY 826 00:36:10,440 --> 00:36:14,040 GOING THROUGH WHAT WE KNOW 827 00:36:14,040 --> 00:36:15,880 HISTORICALLY ABOUTY 828 00:36:15,880 --> 00:36:17,840 RATIFICATION, ELIMINATION, 829 00:36:17,840 --> 00:36:18,080 CONTROL. 830 00:36:18,080 --> 00:36:19,680 IT'S SOMEWHERE IN THE CONTROL 831 00:36:19,680 --> 00:36:21,400 BOX BUT WHAT LEVEL OF CONTROL? 832 00:36:21,400 --> 00:36:23,960 I THINK IT WOULD HAVE TO BE 833 00:36:23,960 --> 00:36:26,680 WHERE IT DOESN'T DISRUPT 834 00:36:26,680 --> 00:36:27,320 SOCIETY. 835 00:36:27,320 --> 00:36:29,480 WE'RE GOING IS TO START AND 836 00:36:29,480 --> 00:36:31,360 YOU'LL PROBABLY HEAR ABOUT THIS 837 00:36:31,360 --> 00:36:32,760 REASONABLY SOON. 838 00:36:32,760 --> 00:36:35,320 PARTICULARLY WHEN YOU HAVE A 839 00:36:35,320 --> 00:36:37,040 VIRUS LIKE OMICRON WHICH HAS 840 00:36:37,040 --> 00:36:40,120 MUCH LESS SEVERITY THAN DELTA 841 00:36:40,120 --> 00:36:43,920 THAT WE'RE GOING TO BE FOCUSING 842 00:36:43,920 --> 00:36:46,200 MUCH OR ON HOSPITALIZATIONS AND 843 00:36:46,200 --> 00:36:48,480 DEATHS AS OPPOSED TO HOW MANY 844 00:36:48,480 --> 00:36:50,120 PEOPLE GET INFECTED. 845 00:36:50,120 --> 00:36:51,920 LIKE WE DON'T USUALLY COUNT THE 846 00:36:51,920 --> 00:36:54,120 NUMBER OF PEOPLE WHO GET A COLD 847 00:36:54,120 --> 00:36:56,760 THAT GET A PARA FLU. 848 00:36:56,760 --> 00:36:58,280 A RHINO VIRUS. 849 00:36:58,280 --> 00:37:01,120 BUT WE'RE GOING TO BE FOCUSING 850 00:37:01,120 --> 00:37:03,320 ON HOW MANY PEOPLE ARE SEVERELY 851 00:37:03,320 --> 00:37:03,840 IMPACTED. 852 00:37:03,840 --> 00:37:06,520 AND WHEN THAT NUMBER GETS TO A 853 00:37:06,520 --> 00:37:08,680 LOW LEVEL THAT THERE IS NO 854 00:37:08,680 --> 00:37:10,560 STRAIN ON THE HOSPITAL SYSTEM. 855 00:37:10,560 --> 00:37:11,720 NO STRAIN ON SOCIETY. 856 00:37:11,720 --> 00:37:15,200 THERE IS NOT A PERVASIVE FEAR 857 00:37:15,200 --> 00:37:19,560 THAT IF YOU'RE 80 YEARS OLD THAT 858 00:37:19,560 --> 00:37:22,920 YOU'RE GOING TO DIE IF YOU GET 859 00:37:22,920 --> 00:37:25,240 INFECTED THEN WE WILL BE ABLE TO 860 00:37:25,240 --> 00:37:26,160 LIVE WITH IT 861 00:37:26,160 --> 00:37:28,200 >> THERE ARE RECORDS IN ISRAEL 862 00:37:28,200 --> 00:37:31,600 THAT THEY ARE CONTEMPLATING OR 863 00:37:31,600 --> 00:37:38,640 HAVE BEGUN A SECOND ROUND OF 864 00:37:38,640 --> 00:37:39,800 BOOSTERS OR VACCINATION. 865 00:37:39,800 --> 00:37:41,960 I'M NOT SURE. 866 00:37:41,960 --> 00:37:42,640 WHICH. 867 00:37:42,640 --> 00:37:44,680 WELL IT'S A BOOSTER TO THE 868 00:37:44,680 --> 00:37:45,800 VACCINATION. 869 00:37:45,800 --> 00:37:48,440 IS THERE ANY EVIDENCE AS TO THE 870 00:37:48,440 --> 00:37:50,080 EFFECTIVENESS OF THAT. 871 00:37:50,080 --> 00:37:51,680 WOULD YOU ANTICIPATE SOMETHING 872 00:37:51,680 --> 00:37:54,360 LIKE THAT HAPPENING GLOBALLY? 873 00:37:54,360 --> 00:37:55,680 >> THE ISRAELIS ARE TALKING 874 00:37:55,680 --> 00:37:58,200 ABOUT A FOURTH SHOT ABOVE THE 875 00:37:58,200 --> 00:38:03,480 THIRD SHOT BOOST OF AN mRNA. 876 00:38:03,480 --> 00:38:09,840 THEY US ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY 877 00:38:09,840 --> 00:38:10,840 PFIZER. 878 00:38:10,840 --> 00:38:12,960 WITHOUT THE DURABILITY OF 879 00:38:12,960 --> 00:38:14,120 PROTECTION OF THE THIRD SHOT 880 00:38:14,120 --> 00:38:15,520 BEFORE WE START THINKING ABOUT 881 00:38:15,520 --> 00:38:16,480 THE FOURTH SHOT. 882 00:38:16,480 --> 00:38:18,920 WE MAY HAVE TO GET YET AGAIN 883 00:38:18,920 --> 00:38:19,600 ANOTHER SHOT. 884 00:38:19,600 --> 00:38:24,600 WE'RE USING THE TERMINOLOGY NOW 885 00:38:24,600 --> 00:38:26,800 KEEPING YOUR VACCINATIONS 886 00:38:26,800 --> 00:38:31,240 UP-TO-DATE RATHER THAN WHAT 887 00:38:31,240 --> 00:38:33,520 FULLY VACCINATED MEANS. 888 00:38:33,520 --> 00:38:35,280 OPTIMAL PROTECTION IS WITH A 889 00:38:35,280 --> 00:38:39,120 THIRD SHOT OF mRNA OR A SECOND 890 00:38:39,120 --> 00:38:42,320 SHOT OF A J&J. 891 00:38:42,320 --> 00:38:45,520 >> THERE IS INTEREST IN -- WHAT 892 00:38:45,520 --> 00:38:48,680 IS THE RELATIVE SENSITIVITY OF 893 00:38:48,680 --> 00:38:50,200 THE HOME KITS THAT ARE BEING 894 00:38:50,200 --> 00:38:53,040 USED FOR DETECTION OF THE 895 00:38:53,040 --> 00:38:59,680 ANTIGEN VERSUS THE PCR? 896 00:38:59,680 --> 00:39:04,760 AT ONE POINT IF SOMEONE HAS SOME 897 00:39:04,760 --> 00:39:07,240 SYMPTOMS THAT ARE SUGGESTIVE AND 898 00:39:07,240 --> 00:39:10,400 HAS A NEGATIVE ANTIGEN TEST IN 899 00:39:10,400 --> 00:39:13,360 ONE OF THE HOME KITS SHOULD THEY 900 00:39:13,360 --> 00:39:17,080 HAVE A PCR? 901 00:39:17,080 --> 00:39:19,160 >> IT DEPENDS ON WHAT YOU ARE 902 00:39:19,160 --> 00:39:20,760 USING THE TEST FOR. 903 00:39:20,760 --> 00:39:24,680 SO LET ME SEE IFIC LAY THIS OUT 904 00:39:24,680 --> 00:39:25,840 BECAUSE THERE IS ALWAYS 905 00:39:25,840 --> 00:39:27,760 UNDERSTANDABLY WHEN A LOT OF 906 00:39:27,760 --> 00:39:29,040 CONFUSION ABOUT THAT. 907 00:39:29,040 --> 00:39:33,080 WITHOUT A DOUBT THE PCR IS A 908 00:39:33,080 --> 00:39:34,880 HIGHLY SENSITIVE TEST. 909 00:39:34,880 --> 00:39:37,000 SO IF YOU REALLY WANT TO KNOW IF 910 00:39:37,000 --> 00:39:39,880 YOU'RE INFECTED THE PCR IS THE 911 00:39:39,880 --> 00:39:40,560 WAY TO GO. 912 00:39:40,560 --> 00:39:43,200 THAT IS USUALLY FOR SOMEONE WHO 913 00:39:43,200 --> 00:39:45,000 HAS SYMPTOMS AND NEEDS TO KNOW 914 00:39:45,000 --> 00:39:47,560 AM I INFECTED YOU WANT TO GET A 915 00:39:47,560 --> 00:39:48,480 PCR. 916 00:39:48,480 --> 00:39:50,080 IF YOU GO TO THE HOSPITAL AND 917 00:39:50,080 --> 00:39:51,760 YOU'RE COMING IN WITH SYMPTOMS 918 00:39:51,760 --> 00:39:55,520 THEY ARE GOING TO DO A PCR ON 919 00:39:55,520 --> 00:39:56,120 YOU. 920 00:39:56,120 --> 00:39:58,280 WHEN YOU RECOVER IT CAN STILL 921 00:39:58,280 --> 00:40:00,880 REMAIN POSITIVE BECAUSE IT PICKS 922 00:40:00,880 --> 00:40:03,840 UP FRAGMENTS OF THE VIRUS THAT 923 00:40:03,840 --> 00:40:06,520 MIGHT NOT BE REPLICATION 924 00:40:06,520 --> 00:40:07,320 COMPETENT. 925 00:40:07,320 --> 00:40:09,840 THEN THE ANTIGEN TEST. 926 00:40:09,840 --> 00:40:12,480 THERE ARE NOW 8 AND WILL SOON BE 927 00:40:12,480 --> 00:40:15,440 9 AND 10 APPROVED TESTS. 928 00:40:15,440 --> 00:40:18,120 THEIR SENSITIVITY IN GENERAL IS 929 00:40:18,120 --> 00:40:21,840 LESS THAN THE PCR. 930 00:40:21,840 --> 00:40:26,640 HOWEVER, IF YOU FOR EXAMPLE DO 931 00:40:26,640 --> 00:40:32,080 THE BAR NEXT NOW TEST IT IS 932 00:40:32,080 --> 00:40:33,920 DEPENDING UPON WHETHER YOU DO IT 933 00:40:33,920 --> 00:40:36,520 PROPERLY OR WHAT STAGE YOU'RE IN 934 00:40:36,520 --> 00:40:40,000 EARLY OR MID-INFECTION IT'S 935 00:40:40,000 --> 00:40:41,720 ABOUT 80 SOME ODD PERCENT 936 00:40:41,720 --> 00:40:42,400 SENSITIVE. 937 00:40:42,400 --> 00:40:47,280 IF YOU DO TWO OR THREE OF THEM 938 00:40:47,280 --> 00:40:48,880 SEQUENTIALLY IT BECOMES AS 939 00:40:48,880 --> 00:40:51,600 SENSITIVE AS THE PCR AND THAT IS 940 00:40:51,600 --> 00:40:53,160 WORK THAT HAS COME OUT FROM A 941 00:40:53,160 --> 00:40:54,320 NUMBER OF GROUPS. 942 00:40:54,320 --> 00:40:59,600 HOWEVER, IF YOU GET A POSITIVE 943 00:40:59,600 --> 00:41:02,120 ANTIGEN TEST IT MEANS THAT URINE 944 00:41:02,120 --> 00:41:02,480 AFFECTED. 945 00:41:02,480 --> 00:41:04,840 THERE ARE VERY FEW FALSE 946 00:41:04,840 --> 00:41:08,760 POSITIVES. 947 00:41:08,760 --> 00:41:13,040 AND NO TEST IS 100%. 948 00:41:13,040 --> 00:41:15,280 BUT IT IS MORE INDICATIVE IF 949 00:41:15,280 --> 00:41:17,080 IT'S POSITIVE YOU KNOW IT'S 950 00:41:17,080 --> 00:41:17,800 POSITIVE. 951 00:41:17,800 --> 00:41:21,480 IF IT'S NEGATIVE IT MAY NOT BE 952 00:41:21,480 --> 00:41:23,360 SENSITIVE ENOUGH TO PICK UP YOUR 953 00:41:23,360 --> 00:41:24,080 INFECTION. 954 00:41:24,080 --> 00:41:26,080 DOES THAT MAKE SENSE? 955 00:41:26,080 --> 00:41:28,240 >> THAT IS VERY HOPEFUL. 956 00:41:28,240 --> 00:41:29,840 I'M SURE THERE IS SOME 957 00:41:29,840 --> 00:41:31,600 CONSIDERABLE CONFUSION. 958 00:41:31,600 --> 00:41:37,480 QUESTIONS ABOUT INDIVIDUALS WHO 959 00:41:37,480 --> 00:41:42,320 HAVE BEEN FULLY VACCINATED AND 960 00:41:42,320 --> 00:41:46,160 WHO HAVE SEVERE DISEASE OR DIE 961 00:41:46,160 --> 00:41:52,680 IN THE FATE A CASES THAT DIE DID 962 00:41:52,680 --> 00:41:55,360 THEY HAVE SOME IMMUNO 963 00:41:55,360 --> 00:41:57,480 DEFICIENCY. 964 00:41:57,480 --> 00:42:03,040 >> WELL YOU KNOW * AS WE'VE 965 00:42:03,040 --> 00:42:05,480 OFTEN SAID ALL OF LIFE IS A BELL 966 00:42:05,480 --> 00:42:08,280 SHAPED CURVE. 967 00:42:08,280 --> 00:42:11,880 IF YOU COMPARE THE UNVACCINATED 968 00:42:11,880 --> 00:42:15,960 TO THE VACCINATED THE DEATHS AND 969 00:42:15,960 --> 00:42:24,680 THE HOSPITALIZATIONS ARE OVER 970 00:42:24,680 --> 00:42:27,320 OVERWHELMINGLY MORE IN THE 971 00:42:27,320 --> 00:42:28,080 UNVACCINATED. 972 00:42:28,080 --> 00:42:30,160 IT'S VERY HEAVILY WEIGHTED 973 00:42:30,160 --> 00:42:33,240 TOWARD THE ELDERLY AND THOSE 974 00:42:33,240 --> 00:42:34,920 WITH UNDERLYING CONDITIONS THAT. 975 00:42:34,920 --> 00:42:38,080 DOES NOT MEAN THAT A 45-YEAR-OLD 976 00:42:38,080 --> 00:42:40,080 HEALTHY VACCINATED AND BOOSTED 977 00:42:40,080 --> 00:42:41,840 PERSON IS NOT GOING TO WIND UP 978 00:42:41,840 --> 00:42:44,280 IN THE HOSPITAL AND DIE BUT IT 979 00:42:44,280 --> 00:42:46,960 WOULD BE EXTREMELY UNUSUAL AS 980 00:42:46,960 --> 00:42:50,320 OPPOSED TO A 95-YEAR-OLD PERSON 981 00:42:50,320 --> 00:42:52,320 WHO IS VACCINATED AND BOOSTED. 982 00:42:52,320 --> 00:42:55,200 SO, ITS HEAVILY WEIGHTED TO THE 983 00:42:55,200 --> 00:42:56,760 ELDERLY AND THOSE WITH 984 00:42:56,760 --> 00:43:02,720 UNDERLYING CONDITIONS. 985 00:43:02,720 --> 00:43:06,680 >> WHAT DO YOU THINK ARE THE 986 00:43:06,680 --> 00:43:11,200 MAJOR PROBLEMS IN TRYING TO TAKE 987 00:43:11,200 --> 00:43:17,280 THE ADVANCES OF SCIENCE AND THE 988 00:43:17,280 --> 00:43:19,080 ANNUAL BODIES AND VACCINES TO 989 00:43:19,080 --> 00:43:21,680 THE PUBLIC AT LARGE TO HAVE A 990 00:43:21,680 --> 00:43:25,040 GREATER RESPONSE AND 991 00:43:25,040 --> 00:43:26,040 ACCESSIBILITY? WOULD YOU LIKE 992 00:43:26,040 --> 00:43:27,920 TO COMMENT ABOUT THAT? 993 00:43:27,920 --> 00:43:30,200 THERE IS A DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 994 00:43:30,200 --> 00:43:32,200 ACCESSIBILITY AND RESPONSE. 995 00:43:32,200 --> 00:43:35,080 BECAUSE THE VACCINES ARE 996 00:43:35,080 --> 00:43:36,400 OVERWHELMINGLY ACCESSIBLE IN 997 00:43:36,400 --> 00:43:37,600 THIS COUNTRY. 998 00:43:37,600 --> 00:43:42,240 AND YET WE HAVE ABOUT 34 MILLION 999 00:43:42,240 --> 00:43:44,760 PEOPLE WHO ARE ELIGIBLE TO BE 1000 00:43:44,760 --> 00:43:46,800 VACCINATED WHO ARE NOT GETTING 1001 00:43:46,800 --> 00:43:47,080 VACCINATED. 1002 00:43:47,080 --> 00:43:49,520 THAT IS A BIG, BIG PROBLEM. 1003 00:43:49,520 --> 00:43:53,960 AND THAT HAS TO DO WITH ANTIVAX 1004 00:43:53,960 --> 00:43:56,000 WITH MAKING DECISIONS ABOUT 1005 00:43:56,000 --> 00:44:00,000 PUBLIC HEALTH BASED ON POLITICAL 1006 00:44:00,000 --> 00:44:00,720 IDEOLOGY. 1007 00:44:00,720 --> 00:44:02,840 THAT IS IN MY MIND ONE OF THE 1008 00:44:02,840 --> 00:44:05,000 GREATEST STUMBLING BLOCKS TO AN 1009 00:44:05,000 --> 00:44:06,560 ADEQUATE RESPONSE IN THIS 1010 00:44:06,560 --> 00:44:07,880 COUNTRY. 1011 00:44:07,880 --> 00:44:10,680 IS THAT THERE IS A DEGREE OF 1012 00:44:10,680 --> 00:44:13,280 POLITICAL DIVISIVENESS THAT HAS 1013 00:44:13,280 --> 00:44:16,600 ENTERED INTO THE EQUATION OF 1014 00:44:16,600 --> 00:44:19,120 ADEQUATE INTERVENTIONS AND THE 1015 00:44:19,120 --> 00:44:22,680 PROPER UTILIZATION OF HIGHLY 1016 00:44:22,680 --> 00:44:23,280 EFFECTIVE TOOLS. 1017 00:44:23,280 --> 00:44:25,600 THAT IS A REAL PROBLEM. 1018 00:44:25,600 --> 00:44:27,840 THAT IS GOING TO KEEP THIS 1019 00:44:27,840 --> 00:44:29,880 LINGERING LONGER THAN IT NEEDS 1020 00:44:29,880 --> 00:44:31,400 TO. 1021 00:44:31,400 --> 00:44:33,800 >> ALL RIGHT. 1022 00:44:33,800 --> 00:44:36,080 I WANT TO THANK YOU ON BEHALF OF 1023 00:44:36,080 --> 00:44:39,840 ALL OF US VERY MUCH. 1024 00:44:39,840 --> 00:44:42,760 YOU'RE A VERY BUSY MAN AND WE 1025 00:44:42,760 --> 00:44:44,480 APPRECIATE YOU PROVIDING THIS 1026 00:44:44,480 --> 00:44:45,200 VALUABLE INFORMATION. 1027 00:44:45,200 --> 00:44:46,920 THANK YOU AGAIN. 1028 00:44:46,920 --> 00:44:47,760 >> THANK YOU. 1029 00:44:47,760 --> 00:44:49,080 IT'S ALWAYS A PLEASURE TO BE 1030 00:44:49,080 --> 00:44:51,760 WITH YOU. 1031 00:44:51,760 --> 00:44:53,200 >> YOU'RE WELCOMED. 1032 00:44:53,200 --> 00:44:56,160 NOW OUR SECOND SPEAKER IS ROGER 1033 00:44:56,160 --> 00:45:03,160 GLASS. 1034 00:45:03,160 --> 00:45:06,280 THE TITLE OF HIS TALK IS THE 1035 00:45:06,280 --> 00:45:09,400 GLOBAL CHALLENGE OF COVID AND 1036 00:45:09,400 --> 00:45:16,720 FUTURE EPIDEMICS. 1037 00:45:16,720 --> 00:45:17,720 >> THANK YOU. 1038 00:45:17,720 --> 00:45:20,920 AND LET ME START BY THANKING 1039 00:45:20,920 --> 00:45:22,680 TONY WHO HAS BEEN SO TERRIFIC 1040 00:45:22,680 --> 00:45:24,200 BOTH IN THE PRESENTATION AND IN 1041 00:45:24,200 --> 00:45:26,160 HIS LEADERSHIP AND SPEAKING 1042 00:45:26,160 --> 00:45:28,480 TRUTH TO POWER AND DELIVERING ON 1043 00:45:28,480 --> 00:45:31,160 THE SCIENCE AND REALLY 1044 00:45:31,160 --> 00:45:33,720 REPRESENTING US SO WELL, TONY. 1045 00:45:33,720 --> 00:45:36,280 WE OWE YOU A GREAT DEBT OF 1046 00:45:36,280 --> 00:45:37,280 THANKS. 1047 00:45:37,280 --> 00:45:46,040 LET ME GENUINE. 1048 00:45:46,040 --> 00:45:53,760 I'LBEGIN -- WIN. 1049 00:45:53,760 --> 00:45:55,480 >> I WANT TO TALK ABOUT THE 1050 00:45:55,480 --> 00:45:58,040 FUTURE. 1051 00:45:58,040 --> 00:46:01,200 THANKS TO TONY THE RIGHT MAN AT 1052 00:46:01,200 --> 00:46:03,400 THE RIGHT TIME WHO HAS HELPED US 1053 00:46:03,400 --> 00:46:05,680 ALL. 1054 00:46:05,680 --> 00:46:08,880 I ALSO WANT TO STATE THAT 1055 00:46:08,880 --> 00:46:13,080 DR. MYSELF AND DR. -- VOGEL HAVE 1056 00:46:13,080 --> 00:46:15,240 NO CONFLICTS OF INTEREST. 1057 00:46:15,240 --> 00:46:16,880 AND MY TALK WILL BE OUTLINED 1058 00:46:16,880 --> 00:46:19,640 FIRST TO DISCUSS THE IMPACT OF 1059 00:46:19,640 --> 00:46:22,360 COVID-19 PANDEMIC ON SOCIETY. 1060 00:46:22,360 --> 00:46:24,520 HOW THE SCIENTIFIC ENTERPRISE 1061 00:46:24,520 --> 00:46:25,560 HAS CHANGED. 1062 00:46:25,560 --> 00:46:27,280 THE IMPORTANCE OF BUILDING 1063 00:46:27,280 --> 00:46:29,400 RESEARCH CAPACITY AND GLOBAL 1064 00:46:29,400 --> 00:46:31,680 PARTNERSHIPS TO IMPROVE PANDEMIC 1065 00:46:31,680 --> 00:46:32,680 RESPONSES IN THE FUTURE. 1066 00:46:32,680 --> 00:46:37,680 AND FINALLY, A SPECIAL SECTION 1067 00:46:37,680 --> 00:46:47,000 ON THE VALUE OF MODELING. 1068 00:46:47,000 --> 00:46:48,920 AND WHAT DOES THE FUTURE HOLD 1069 00:46:48,920 --> 00:46:53,960 FOR BIOMEDICAL SEARCH. 1070 00:46:53,960 --> 00:46:56,120 IT'S BEEN OVER A HUNDRED YEARS 1071 00:46:56,120 --> 00:46:58,320 SINCE THE GREAT INFLUENZA. 1072 00:46:58,320 --> 00:47:00,080 WHAT HAVE WE LEARNED SINCE? 1073 00:47:00,080 --> 00:47:03,680 I FOUND IT INTERESTING THAT THE 1074 00:47:03,680 --> 00:47:05,960 PANDEMIC WAS TRULY HISTORIC BUT 1075 00:47:05,960 --> 00:47:08,320 OUR BASIC CONDITIONS AND CONTROL 1076 00:47:08,320 --> 00:47:11,400 MEASURES HAVE NOT CHANGED FOR A 1077 00:47:11,400 --> 00:47:14,280 HUNDRED YEARS. 1078 00:47:14,280 --> 00:47:14,640 MASKING. 1079 00:47:14,640 --> 00:47:16,160 SOCIAL DISTANCING. 1080 00:47:16,160 --> 00:47:18,800 NOT COUGHING AND SNEEZING IN 1081 00:47:18,800 --> 00:47:19,440 SOMEONE'S FACE. 1082 00:47:19,440 --> 00:47:22,680 IT'S AMAZING HOW LITTLE HAS 1083 00:47:22,680 --> 00:47:23,720 CHANGED EXCEPT FOR SOME OF THE 1084 00:47:23,720 --> 00:47:25,840 NEW SCIENCE. 1085 00:47:25,840 --> 00:47:28,720 THIS PANDEMIC MORE DEATHS THAN 1086 00:47:28,720 --> 00:47:32,080 THE SPANISH FLU. 1087 00:47:32,080 --> 00:47:35,000 ALTHOUGH A LOWER FATALITY RATE. 1088 00:47:35,000 --> 00:47:37,920 WE'VE SEEN ALL KINDS OF PROBLEMS 1089 00:47:37,920 --> 00:47:40,840 WITH IT IT'S BEEN HISTORIC. 1090 00:47:40,840 --> 00:47:43,760 OVER 5 MILLION DEATHS. 1091 00:47:43,760 --> 00:47:45,720 THE UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON HAS 1092 00:47:45,720 --> 00:47:46,920 SUBJECTED THAT THAT IS ONLY HALF 1093 00:47:46,920 --> 00:47:50,400 OF THE NUMBER OF DEATHS DUE TO 1094 00:47:50,400 --> 00:47:50,760 THIS. 1095 00:47:50,760 --> 00:47:53,080 AND ALSO STRIKING IS THE FACT 1096 00:47:53,080 --> 00:47:54,760 THAT THERE HAVE BEEN OVER 1097 00:47:54,760 --> 00:47:56,280 9 BILLION VACCINE DOSES 1098 00:47:56,280 --> 00:47:57,720 ADMINISTERED IN A LITTLE OVER A 1099 00:47:57,720 --> 00:47:59,960 YEAR. 1100 00:47:59,960 --> 00:48:01,560 REALLY A QUITE REMARKABLE 1101 00:48:01,560 --> 00:48:02,320 ACHIEVEMENT. 1102 00:48:02,320 --> 00:48:04,920 SO THE PANDEMIC HAS AFFECTED US 1103 00:48:04,920 --> 00:48:05,720 ALL. 1104 00:48:05,720 --> 00:48:07,040 WE'VE ALL LIVED THROUGH THIS. 1105 00:48:07,040 --> 00:48:08,800 THE SHUT DOWN OF TRAVEL. 1106 00:48:08,800 --> 00:48:10,480 BUSINESS LOCKDOWNS. 1107 00:48:10,480 --> 00:48:11,400 MENTAL HEALTH. 1108 00:48:11,400 --> 00:48:14,320 STRESS AND SCHOOLS AND 1109 00:48:14,320 --> 00:48:14,880 ENTERTAINMENT. 1110 00:48:14,880 --> 00:48:16,960 OUR LIVES HAVE ALL BEEN IMPACTED 1111 00:48:16,960 --> 00:48:19,440 AND AFTER TWO YEARS AS YOU CAN 1112 00:48:19,440 --> 00:48:23,720 SEE WITH OMICRON WE'RE STILL 1113 00:48:23,720 --> 00:48:25,280 LEARNING ABOUT THE VIRUS AND THE 1114 00:48:25,280 --> 00:48:26,240 CONSEQUENCES AND THINKING ABOUT 1115 00:48:26,240 --> 00:48:30,480 THE FUTURE. 1116 00:48:30,480 --> 00:48:33,600 LARRY AND DAVID AT HARVARD 1117 00:48:33,600 --> 00:48:35,920 ESTIMATED THE IMPACT IN ECONOMIC 1118 00:48:35,920 --> 00:48:37,760 TERMS AND FOR THE UNITED STATES 1119 00:48:37,760 --> 00:48:44,280 AND FELT THAT THE VACCINE WAS A 1120 00:48:44,280 --> 00:48:45,280 $16 TRILLION VIRUS. 1121 00:48:45,280 --> 00:48:47,920 ALSO THE COMMENT THAT SARS 1122 00:48:47,920 --> 00:48:50,120 PANDEMIC IS THE GREATEST THREAT 1123 00:48:50,120 --> 00:48:53,160 TO PROSPERITY AND WELL-BEING THE 1124 00:48:53,160 --> 00:48:55,440 U.S. HAS ENCOUNTERED SINCE THE 1125 00:48:55,440 --> 00:48:56,480 GREAT DEPRESSION. 1126 00:48:56,480 --> 00:48:58,080 THAT IS SOMETHING IMPORTANT. 1127 00:48:58,080 --> 00:49:02,080 DESPITE THE FACT THAT WE'VE USED 1128 00:49:02,080 --> 00:49:03,440 THAT 9.2 BILLION DOSES OF 1129 00:49:03,440 --> 00:49:05,400 VACCINE WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE 1130 00:49:05,400 --> 00:49:06,600 DISTRIBUTION OF THOSE IN THE 1131 00:49:06,600 --> 00:49:09,360 WORLD YOU CAN SEE IN AFRICA ONLY 1132 00:49:09,360 --> 00:49:11,840 8% OF ALL OF THESE VACCINES HAVE 1133 00:49:11,840 --> 00:49:15,440 REACHED THE AFRICAN CONTINENT. 1134 00:49:15,440 --> 00:49:17,960 A TROUBLING ISSUE ABOUT VACCINE 1135 00:49:17,960 --> 00:49:18,480 EQUITY. 1136 00:49:18,480 --> 00:49:19,960 AND SOMETHING THAT I WANT TO 1137 00:49:19,960 --> 00:49:21,640 DISCUSS IN THIS TALK. 1138 00:49:21,640 --> 00:49:24,200 AND THE PANDEMIC WE SEE AS A 1139 00:49:24,200 --> 00:49:24,880 WAKE-UP CALL. 1140 00:49:24,880 --> 00:49:26,320 A TEACHING MOMENT. 1141 00:49:26,320 --> 00:49:29,080 THE AFRICAN UNION HAS FOR A LONG 1142 00:49:29,080 --> 00:49:33,440 TIME ENCOURAGED CONSTITUENT 1143 00:49:33,440 --> 00:49:35,520 COUNTRIES 55 TO INVEST IN HEALTH 1144 00:49:35,520 --> 00:49:36,640 RESEARCH. 1145 00:49:36,640 --> 00:49:38,720 BUT VERY FEW HAVE PUT THE 1146 00:49:38,720 --> 00:49:40,760 INVESTMENTS IN AND NOW THEY ARE 1147 00:49:40,760 --> 00:49:42,520 IN A SITUATION WHERE ALL OF THE 1148 00:49:42,520 --> 00:49:44,360 COUNTRIES HAVE BEEN IMPACTED. 1149 00:49:44,360 --> 00:49:47,720 ALL PRESIDENTS IN AFRICA ARE 1150 00:49:47,720 --> 00:49:48,280 ENGAGED. 1151 00:49:48,280 --> 00:49:51,720 SOME VERY STRONGLY INVESTED IN 1152 00:49:51,720 --> 00:49:53,440 RESEARCH AND THE LIKE. 1153 00:49:53,440 --> 00:49:55,240 ALL ECONOMIES HAVE SUFFERED. 1154 00:49:55,240 --> 00:49:58,920 ALL PEOPLE'S HEALTH AND WELFARE 1155 00:49:58,920 --> 00:50:00,080 HAS BEEN IMPACTED. 1156 00:50:00,080 --> 00:50:01,680 THESE COUNTRIES HAVE FOUND 1157 00:50:01,680 --> 00:50:03,720 THEMSELVES NOW DEPENDENT UPON 1158 00:50:03,720 --> 00:50:06,320 THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY FOR 1159 00:50:06,320 --> 00:50:08,720 ITS DIAGNOSTICS, DRUGS AND 1160 00:50:08,720 --> 00:50:10,680 VACCINES AND PPE. 1161 00:50:10,680 --> 00:50:13,120 QUITE REMARKABLE. 1162 00:50:13,120 --> 00:50:15,440 WELL I JUST CAME BACK IN 1163 00:50:15,440 --> 00:50:18,960 DECEMBER FROM RWANDA WHERE 1164 00:50:18,960 --> 00:50:20,480 THINGS SEEM QUITE DIFFERENT. 1165 00:50:20,480 --> 00:50:22,240 I HAD TO BE SCREENED BEFORE I 1166 00:50:22,240 --> 00:50:25,960 GOT ON THE AIRPLANE GOING IN AND 1167 00:50:25,960 --> 00:50:28,280 GOING OUT AND QUARANTINED FOR 1168 00:50:28,280 --> 00:50:31,440 TWO DAYS UNTIL I WAS COVID 1169 00:50:31,440 --> 00:50:32,120 NEGATIVE. 1170 00:50:32,120 --> 00:50:34,480 THEY VACCINATED OVER 90% OF 1171 00:50:34,480 --> 00:50:36,200 THEIR POPULATION WITH TWO DOSES 1172 00:50:36,200 --> 00:50:38,840 AND THEY ARE IN THE PROCESS OF 1173 00:50:38,840 --> 00:50:40,720 VACCINATING EVERYONE IN THE 1174 00:50:40,720 --> 00:50:45,280 RURAL AREAS AND THEY ARE MASKING 1175 00:50:45,280 --> 00:50:46,840 PER WHERE EVEN IN PERSONAL 1176 00:50:46,840 --> 00:50:49,040 VEHICLES AND THEY ARE PLANNING 1177 00:50:49,040 --> 00:50:51,080 AN mRNA FACILITY IN THE 1178 00:50:51,080 --> 00:50:52,040 COUNTRY. 1179 00:50:52,040 --> 00:50:54,840 WORKING ON GRANTS FOR GENOMICS. 1180 00:50:54,840 --> 00:50:56,800 THEY HAVE AN ENGINEERING 1181 00:50:56,800 --> 00:51:01,160 INSTITUTE AND THEY ARE DOING 1182 00:51:01,160 --> 00:51:02,160 AMAZING THINGS. 1183 00:51:02,160 --> 00:51:06,080 SO I WAS HEARTENED TO SEE THE 1184 00:51:06,080 --> 00:51:10,240 RATES WERE LOWER THAN IN MOST 1185 00:51:10,240 --> 00:51:12,160 PLACES IN THE UNITED STATES. 1186 00:51:12,160 --> 00:51:14,840 KNOWLEDGE OF THE PANDEMIC IS 1187 00:51:14,840 --> 00:51:17,600 SPREAD IN EVOLUTION IMPACT HAS 1188 00:51:17,600 --> 00:51:18,960 COME FROM GLOBAL PARTNERSHIPS. 1189 00:51:18,960 --> 00:51:21,240 WE HAVE NOT DONE THIS ONLY ON 1190 00:51:21,240 --> 00:51:23,080 THE U.S. CONTINENT. 1191 00:51:23,080 --> 00:51:24,840 THE SURVEILLANCE MAPS AND THE 1192 00:51:24,840 --> 00:51:27,000 DATA ARE FROM AROUND THE WORLD. 1193 00:51:27,000 --> 00:51:30,600 THE CLINICAL TRIALS OF DRUGS AND 1194 00:51:30,600 --> 00:51:32,640 VACCINES HAVE BEEN UNIVERSE 58. 1195 00:51:32,640 --> 00:51:34,400 THEY'VE BEEN FROM ALL OVER. 1196 00:51:34,400 --> 00:51:35,600 *. 1197 00:51:35,600 --> 00:51:37,280 CLINICAL TRIAL SITES. 1198 00:51:37,280 --> 00:51:39,480 VACCINES HAVE BEEN PROVIDED FOR 1199 00:51:39,480 --> 00:51:41,840 MANY COUNTRIES AND MANUFACTURERS 1200 00:51:41,840 --> 00:51:43,680 INCLUDING THE SHY NIECE, 1201 00:51:43,680 --> 00:51:45,480 RUSSIANS AND INDIANS HAVE BEEN 1202 00:51:45,480 --> 00:51:48,040 STRIKING. 1203 00:51:48,040 --> 00:51:49,760 INDUSTRY AND FINANCIAL 1204 00:51:49,760 --> 00:51:50,480 INSTITUTIONS HAVE BEEN INVOLVED 1205 00:51:50,480 --> 00:51:55,280 TO SEE WHAT THEY COULD DO AND 1206 00:51:55,280 --> 00:51:57,480 INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS AND 1207 00:51:57,480 --> 00:52:00,040 ACADEMIC INSTITUTIONS ARE ALL 1208 00:52:00,040 --> 00:52:00,440 INVOLVED. 1209 00:52:00,440 --> 00:52:02,480 THEY ALL HAVE A ROLE TO PLAY. 1210 00:52:02,480 --> 00:52:04,400 THIS IS A PANDEMIC THAT IS 1211 00:52:04,400 --> 00:52:05,640 MOBILIZED EVERYONE. 1212 00:52:05,640 --> 00:52:07,400 BECAUSE WE'RE ALL IN THIS 1213 00:52:07,400 --> 00:52:09,200 TOGETHER AND THE PANDEMIC WON'T 1214 00:52:09,200 --> 00:52:11,200 GO AWAY ANYWHERE UNTIL IT'S 1215 00:52:11,200 --> 00:52:14,840 CONTROLLED EVERYWHERE. 1216 00:52:14,840 --> 00:52:16,320 WELL I HAD THE PLEASURE OF 1217 00:52:16,320 --> 00:52:19,800 SPENDING TIME WITH JOHN, THE 1218 00:52:19,800 --> 00:52:22,680 DIRECTOR OF THE AFRICAN CDC IN 1219 00:52:22,680 --> 00:52:23,680 RWANDA. 1220 00:52:23,680 --> 00:52:26,680 HE IS EXTRAORDINARY AND HE HAS 1221 00:52:26,680 --> 00:52:29,840 BEEN PUSHING PROGRAMS FOR FIVE 1222 00:52:29,840 --> 00:52:31,280 YEARS INCLUDING THIS PROGRAM. 1223 00:52:31,280 --> 00:52:33,760 THE PARTNERSHIP FOR VACCINE 1224 00:52:33,760 --> 00:52:37,320 MANUFACTURER IN AFRICA. 1225 00:52:37,320 --> 00:52:40,680 AND HE HAS WRITTEN RECENTLY THAT 1226 00:52:40,680 --> 00:52:44,160 TWO YEARS IN COVID LESSONS OF 1227 00:52:44,160 --> 00:52:46,720 THE WORLD AND NATURE AND HE 1228 00:52:46,720 --> 00:52:48,880 ARGUES THAT AFRICA NEEDS TO 1229 00:52:48,880 --> 00:52:50,400 GUARANTEE ITS OWN HEALTH 1230 00:52:50,400 --> 00:52:51,880 SECURITY. 1231 00:52:51,880 --> 00:52:55,760 FINDING AN AFRICAN SOLUTION TO 1232 00:52:55,760 --> 00:52:57,280 AN AFRICAN GLOBAL PROBLEM. 1233 00:52:57,280 --> 00:52:59,480 HE ALONG WITH CHRISTIAN HAPPY 1234 00:52:59,480 --> 00:53:04,080 HAVE COME UP WITH FIVE CRITICAL 1235 00:53:04,080 --> 00:53:05,400 ELEMENTS. 1236 00:53:05,400 --> 00:53:11,280 INVESTING IN HEALTH AND DISEASE. 1237 00:53:11,280 --> 00:53:13,800 BUILDING REGIONAL CONTROL AND 1238 00:53:13,800 --> 00:53:15,000 CAPABILITIES. 1239 00:53:15,000 --> 00:53:16,240 ACCELERATING TRANSLATIONAL 1240 00:53:16,240 --> 00:53:18,680 RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT. 1241 00:53:18,680 --> 00:53:22,440 THOSE DIAGNOSTICS AND VACCINES 1242 00:53:22,440 --> 00:53:25,920 AND DRUGS THAT NEED TO BE 1243 00:53:25,920 --> 00:53:27,720 TRANSLATED AND RESEARCHED IN 1244 00:53:27,720 --> 00:53:30,840 COUNTRY. 1245 00:53:30,840 --> 00:53:33,040 INVESTING IN SURVEILLANCE. 1246 00:53:33,040 --> 00:53:35,280 SO HE HAS BEEN VERY CLEAR. 1247 00:53:35,280 --> 00:53:37,480 AND I JUST WANT TO NOTE THAT 1248 00:53:37,480 --> 00:53:40,840 CHRISTIAN HAPPY AND JOHN ARE 1249 00:53:40,840 --> 00:53:42,560 BOTH INVOLVED WITH NIH. 1250 00:53:42,560 --> 00:53:46,440 CHRISTIAN HAPPY IS A RECIPIENT 1251 00:53:46,440 --> 00:53:50,880 OF THE AWARD WHO MADE THE FIRST 1252 00:53:50,880 --> 00:53:53,960 SEQUENCE OF A COVID STRAIN IN 1253 00:53:53,960 --> 00:54:02,440 NIGERIA WITHIN A FEW DAYS OF ITS -- 1254 00:54:02,440 --> 00:54:07,840 ITS EY IDENTIFICATION. 1255 00:54:07,840 --> 00:54:11,200 SO THEY BOTH HAVE STRONG 1256 00:54:11,200 --> 00:54:12,840 LEADERSHIP QUALITIES. 1257 00:54:12,840 --> 00:54:14,480 BORN LEADERS. 1258 00:54:14,480 --> 00:54:17,800 AS TONY MENTIONED THE OUTBREAK 1259 00:54:17,800 --> 00:54:19,920 BEGAN IN CHINA SO WE HAVE TO 1260 00:54:19,920 --> 00:54:22,400 THANK THE CHINESE FOR PUTTING 1261 00:54:22,400 --> 00:54:25,880 THE SEQUENCE EARLY ON AS A 1262 00:54:25,880 --> 00:54:28,040 PUBLICATION WHICH WAS THE 1263 00:54:28,040 --> 00:54:29,640 BLUEPRINT FOR MOST VACCINES SO 1264 00:54:29,640 --> 00:54:31,480 THAT TYPE OF INTERNATIONAL 1265 00:54:31,480 --> 00:54:34,080 COLLABORATION IS KEY. 1266 00:54:34,080 --> 00:54:36,560 THOSE SEQUENCES HAVE NOW BEEN 1267 00:54:36,560 --> 00:54:38,520 FOLLOWED AND ARE BEING LOOKED AT 1268 00:54:38,520 --> 00:54:40,280 AROUND THE WORLD AND TONY 1269 00:54:40,280 --> 00:54:41,840 MENTIONED HOW THAT HAS HAPPENED 1270 00:54:41,840 --> 00:54:43,480 BUT WHAT IS INTERESTING IN 1271 00:54:43,480 --> 00:54:46,120 AFRICA IS THAT AT THE BEGINNING 1272 00:54:46,120 --> 00:54:47,800 OF THE PANDEMIC ONLY THREE 1273 00:54:47,800 --> 00:54:50,240 COUNTRIES IN AFRICA ONLY THREE 1274 00:54:50,240 --> 00:54:53,000 SITES COULD SEQUENCE STRAINS IN 1275 00:54:53,000 --> 00:54:53,640 THE FIRST WEEKS. 1276 00:54:53,640 --> 00:54:55,640 SOMETHING THAT REALLY HAS TO BE 1277 00:54:55,640 --> 00:54:58,160 REMEDIED AS WE GO FORWARD AND 1278 00:54:58,160 --> 00:54:59,080 THINKING ABOUT GLOBAL 1279 00:54:59,080 --> 00:55:00,880 SURVEILLANCE. 1280 00:55:00,880 --> 00:55:06,360 AS AN EXAMPLE WE HAD A FELLOW 1281 00:55:06,360 --> 00:55:10,040 JESSICA MANNING AT FOGARTY HAS 1282 00:55:10,040 --> 00:55:12,640 MOVED TO NIAID AND IS ASSIGNED 1283 00:55:12,640 --> 00:55:15,080 TO THE NATIONAL CAMBODIAN 1284 00:55:15,080 --> 00:55:15,760 NATIONAL LAB. 1285 00:55:15,760 --> 00:55:19,080 SHE AND HER GROUP SEQUENCED THE 1286 00:55:19,080 --> 00:55:21,640 FIRST STRAINS OF COVID CAMBODIA. 1287 00:55:21,640 --> 00:55:24,760 SO EXTENDING THAT GLOBAL 1288 00:55:24,760 --> 00:55:25,600 NETWORK. 1289 00:55:25,600 --> 00:55:27,920 WHEN OMICRON EMERGED IN NOVEMBER 1290 00:55:27,920 --> 00:55:30,760 YOU CAN SEE HERE THE NUMBER OF 1291 00:55:30,760 --> 00:55:32,080 STRAINS AND THEIR MIGRATION 1292 00:55:32,080 --> 00:55:33,440 AROUND THE WORLD. 1293 00:55:33,440 --> 00:55:37,800 QUITE IMPRESSIVE AND THIS ALSO 1294 00:55:37,800 --> 00:55:40,760 HAS A LINK TO FOGARTY WHERE YOU 1295 00:55:40,760 --> 00:55:47,560 CAN SEE THE IN INVESTOR * WAS IN 1296 00:55:47,560 --> 00:55:49,280 TRAINING IN OUR AIDS PROGRAM 1297 00:55:49,280 --> 00:55:53,280 BEFORE AND IS NOW THE LABORATORY 1298 00:55:53,280 --> 00:55:56,480 DIRECTOR IN BOTSWANA. 1299 00:55:56,480 --> 00:55:59,440 THIS BEGAN AND THE IDEA OF 1300 00:55:59,440 --> 00:56:00,760 GETTING LEADERSHIP IN THE FIELD 1301 00:56:00,760 --> 00:56:03,000 IN AFRICA AND BUILDING AROUND 1302 00:56:03,000 --> 00:56:06,360 THOSE LEADERS IS ABSOLUTELY 1303 00:56:06,360 --> 00:56:11,120 ESSENTIAL GOING FORWARD. 1304 00:56:11,120 --> 00:56:12,640 THE ABILITY TO DO THE SEQUENCES 1305 00:56:12,640 --> 00:56:13,280 HAS BEEN A RAPID ADVANCE OF 1306 00:56:13,280 --> 00:56:15,240 TECHNOLOGIES THAT BECOME LESS 1307 00:56:15,240 --> 00:56:17,440 COSTLY. 1308 00:56:17,440 --> 00:56:18,560 PORTABLE. 1309 00:56:18,560 --> 00:56:20,240 SMALL SCALE AND ACCESSIBLE TO 1310 00:56:20,240 --> 00:56:23,560 ALL AND WITH THAT AT FOGARTY 1311 00:56:23,560 --> 00:56:26,240 ALONG WITH MANY PARTNERS JOHNS 1312 00:56:26,240 --> 00:56:28,920 HOPKINS AND THE AFRICAN CDC 1313 00:56:28,920 --> 00:56:30,440 WORKING TO TRAIN PEOPLE IN 1314 00:56:30,440 --> 00:56:31,840 SEQUENCES SO THEY WOULD BE 1315 00:56:31,840 --> 00:56:34,240 PREPARED FOR THE NEXT PANDEMIC 1316 00:56:34,240 --> 00:56:36,200 OR FROM WATCHING THIS PANDEMIC 1317 00:56:36,200 --> 00:56:39,080 AS IT GOES ON. 1318 00:56:39,080 --> 00:56:41,120 WE'VE DEVELOPED THIS AS A COURSE 1319 00:56:41,120 --> 00:56:43,040 WHICH HAVE BEEN USED THROUGHOUT 1320 00:56:43,040 --> 00:56:46,320 AFTER AT DEVELOPING WORLD AND 1321 00:56:46,320 --> 00:56:47,920 WHERE EVER IT IS NEEDED WITH 1322 00:56:47,920 --> 00:56:49,800 PACKAGES AND SOFTWARE TOGETHER 1323 00:56:49,800 --> 00:56:51,760 WITH JOHNS HOPKINS AND YOU CAN 1324 00:56:51,760 --> 00:56:53,920 SEE SOME OF THE INVESTIGATORS IN 1325 00:56:53,920 --> 00:56:55,160 PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR THIS. 1326 00:56:55,160 --> 00:56:56,480 THIS IS SOMETHING THAT WILL BE 1327 00:56:56,480 --> 00:56:58,560 AN ESSENTIAL TOOL IN PUBLIC 1328 00:56:58,560 --> 00:57:00,080 HEALTH LABORATORIES HENCEFORTH. 1329 00:57:00,080 --> 00:57:03,440 I WANT TO NOW BECAUSE THIS 1330 00:57:03,440 --> 00:57:04,920 SURVEILLANCE HAS BEEN SO 1331 00:57:04,920 --> 00:57:08,600 INTERESTING MODELING IN THIS 1332 00:57:08,600 --> 00:57:11,600 PANDEMIC HAS BECOME A NICHE 1333 00:57:11,600 --> 00:57:15,960 FIELD IN THE PAST. 1334 00:57:15,960 --> 00:57:23,720 AND CECILE LEADS A GROUP AND I 1335 00:57:23,720 --> 00:57:26,040 WILL GIVE HER A FEW MINUTES TO 1336 00:57:26,040 --> 00:57:27,440 DESCRIBE THE IMPORTANCE OF 1337 00:57:27,440 --> 00:57:31,440 MODELING AND HOW THIS COULD HELP 1338 00:57:31,440 --> 00:57:35,240 ANY COUNTRY IN ACCESSING THE 1339 00:57:35,240 --> 00:57:41,120 BURDEN OF THE DISEASE. 1340 00:57:41,120 --> 00:57:42,040 >> THANK YOU. 1341 00:57:42,040 --> 00:57:47,440 GO BACK. 1342 00:57:47,440 --> 00:57:47,800 PERFECT. 1343 00:57:47,800 --> 00:57:52,240 THANKS. 1344 00:57:52,240 --> 00:57:54,600 SO OUR CENTER HAS MAINTAINED A 1345 00:57:54,600 --> 00:57:59,440 GLOBAL NETWORK ON INFLUENZA AND 1346 00:57:59,440 --> 00:58:04,240 RESPIRATORY VIRUSES FOR TWO 1347 00:58:04,240 --> 00:58:08,480 DECADES NOW. 1348 00:58:08,480 --> 00:58:11,120 AND WE'VE USED THIS RELATIONSHIP 1349 00:58:11,120 --> 00:58:14,320 BUILT IN PEACETIME TO STUDY THE 1350 00:58:14,320 --> 00:58:15,840 COVID-19 PANDEMIC. 1351 00:58:15,840 --> 00:58:17,640 SO I WILL SHOW YOU A LITTLE BIT 1352 00:58:17,640 --> 00:58:19,760 OF OUR WORK WITH COLLEAGUES IN 1353 00:58:19,760 --> 00:58:23,800 SOUTH AFRICA AND CHINA TODAY. 1354 00:58:23,800 --> 00:58:27,480 SO VERY EARLY ON THERE WAS VERY 1355 00:58:27,480 --> 00:58:30,040 LITTLE DATA ON THE PATIENT LEVEL 1356 00:58:30,040 --> 00:58:31,200 ON COVID-19. 1357 00:58:31,200 --> 00:58:34,840 SO WE RELIED ON DIGITAL 1358 00:58:34,840 --> 00:58:37,520 SURVEILLANCE WHICH IS AN 1359 00:58:37,520 --> 00:58:41,000 APPROACH -- SUCH AS THE WEB OR 1360 00:58:41,000 --> 00:58:42,720 SOCIAL NETWORK TO MONITOR 1361 00:58:42,720 --> 00:58:46,160 INFECTIOUS DISEASE. 1362 00:58:46,160 --> 00:58:49,840 -- -- USED THE CHINESE SOCIAL 1363 00:58:49,840 --> 00:58:51,560 MEDIA WHICH IS TARGETED AT 1364 00:58:51,560 --> 00:58:56,080 MEDICAL PROFESSIONALS AND 1365 00:58:56,080 --> 00:58:56,840 AGGREGATES LOCAL NEWS FROM 1366 00:58:56,840 --> 00:58:57,880 [ INDISCERNIBLE ] 1367 00:58:57,880 --> 00:59:00,960 BUT ALSO LOCAL DOCTORS TO CREATE 1368 00:59:00,960 --> 00:59:05,240 A DATABASE OF PATIENT DATA. SO 1369 00:59:05,240 --> 00:59:08,080 WE HAD AT THE TIME IN 1370 00:59:08,080 --> 00:59:09,720 JANUARY 2020 A FEW HUNDRED CASES 1371 00:59:09,720 --> 00:59:12,200 BUT YOU COULD ALSO SEE 1372 00:59:12,200 --> 00:59:13,240 INTERESTING INFORMATION. 1373 00:59:13,240 --> 00:59:15,600 YOU CAN SEE THE AGE DISTRIBUTION 1374 00:59:15,600 --> 00:59:17,640 OF THESE CASES WITH THE BLUE 1375 00:59:17,640 --> 00:59:21,440 CURVE OF PRESENTING THE RELATED 1376 00:59:21,440 --> 00:59:24,840 RISK OF BEING DISEASESSED BY AGE 1377 00:59:24,840 --> 00:59:29,240 AND INCREASING IN OLDER AGE 1378 00:59:29,240 --> 00:59:32,320 GROUP WHICH IS A DEFINING ISSUE. 1379 00:59:32,320 --> 00:59:33,840 AND ON THE RIGHT-HAND SIDE YOU 1380 00:59:33,840 --> 00:59:35,920 CAN SEE HOW THE SOCIAL MEDIA 1381 00:59:35,920 --> 00:59:40,080 BASED DATA IN LIGHT BLUE 1382 00:59:40,080 --> 00:59:42,560 CORRESPONDS TO GROUND TROOP DATA 1383 00:59:42,560 --> 00:59:47,440 THAT WAS RELEASED BY THE CHINESE 1384 00:59:47,440 --> 00:59:47,640 CDC. 1385 00:59:47,640 --> 00:59:49,480 WE MADE THIS DATABASE. 1386 00:59:49,480 --> 00:59:52,640 IT WAS ONE OF THE FIRST TO BE 1387 00:59:52,640 --> 00:59:54,320 AVAILABLE TO THE PUBLIC AND 1388 00:59:54,320 --> 00:59:57,240 WE'VE NOW EXPANDED ON THE 1389 00:59:57,240 --> 00:59:59,200 DIGITAL SURVEILLANCE IDEAS WITH 1390 00:59:59,200 --> 01:00:00,560 COLLABORATORS WHERE WE'RE 1391 01:00:00,560 --> 01:00:04,040 LOOKING AT BOTH COVID-19 BUT 1392 01:00:04,040 --> 01:00:06,600 ALSO SOME OF THE DISEASES SUCH 1393 01:00:06,600 --> 01:00:09,160 AS MEASLES. 1394 01:00:09,160 --> 01:00:10,360 THROUGHOUT THE PANDEMIC WE'VE 1395 01:00:10,360 --> 01:00:13,040 BEEN WORKING CLOSELY WITH CHINA 1396 01:00:13,040 --> 01:00:16,760 AND PARTICULARLY WITH OUR 1397 01:00:16,760 --> 01:00:22,080 LONG-TERM COLLABORATOR ON FLU. 1398 01:00:22,080 --> 01:00:24,480 IT HAS MANY LABORS OF 1399 01:00:24,480 --> 01:00:25,640 INTERVENTION. 1400 01:00:25,640 --> 01:00:27,440 AND ONE OF THE INTERESTING 1401 01:00:27,440 --> 01:00:30,960 STUDIES WAS TO MONITOR CONTACTS 1402 01:00:30,960 --> 01:00:31,400 CLOSELY. 1403 01:00:31,400 --> 01:00:34,280 SO YOU SEE A CONTACTS BETWEEN 1404 01:00:34,280 --> 01:00:37,120 DIFFERENT AGE GROUPS. 1405 01:00:37,120 --> 01:00:39,080 WITH RED REPRESENTING HIGH 1406 01:00:39,080 --> 01:00:42,160 INTENSITY OF CONTACTS. 1407 01:00:42,160 --> 01:00:44,680 ON BASELINE YOU CAN SEE FREQUENT 1408 01:00:44,680 --> 01:00:46,040 CONTACTS BETWEEN CHILDREN IN 1409 01:00:46,040 --> 01:00:48,000 SCHOOLS AS WELL AS BETWEEN 1410 01:00:48,000 --> 01:00:50,280 ADULTS AND THEIR CHILDREN AND 1411 01:00:50,280 --> 01:00:52,200 THEN THE SQUARE IN THE MIDDLE 1412 01:00:52,200 --> 01:00:54,320 REPRESENTS CONTACTS AT WORK. 1413 01:00:54,320 --> 01:00:57,560 AND THE MIDDLE GRAPH YOU SEE 1414 01:00:57,560 --> 01:00:59,600 CONTACTS DURING THE LOCKDOWN 1415 01:00:59,600 --> 01:01:02,440 PERIOD WHICH WAS VERY STRICT IN 1416 01:01:02,440 --> 01:01:04,200 CHINA AND YOU CAN SEE A LOT OF 1417 01:01:04,200 --> 01:01:06,720 CONTACTS THAT HAVE DISAPPEARED 1418 01:01:06,720 --> 01:01:08,200 THAT YOU CAN SEE ON THE 1419 01:01:08,200 --> 01:01:10,520 RIGHT-HAND SIDE. 1420 01:01:10,520 --> 01:01:13,080 THE CHANGES IN CONTACTS -- 1421 01:01:13,080 --> 01:01:14,040 [ INDISCERNIBLE ] 1422 01:01:14,040 --> 01:01:16,880 AS MONITORED BY GPS PHONES WHICH 1423 01:01:16,880 --> 01:01:20,120 IS ONE OF THE INDICATORS OF 1424 01:01:20,120 --> 01:01:22,640 CONTACTS AND PREVENTION USE FOR 1425 01:01:22,640 --> 01:01:24,440 OTHER PANDEMICS. 1426 01:01:24,440 --> 01:01:27,720 WE COULD USE THEM TO -- MODELS 1427 01:01:27,720 --> 01:01:30,480 AND LOOK AT THE DIFFERENT IMPACT 1428 01:01:30,480 --> 01:01:31,640 OF TRANSMISSION. 1429 01:01:31,640 --> 01:01:37,520 WE SEE AN UNCONTROLLED 1430 01:01:37,520 --> 01:01:43,680 EPIDEMILOGICA--EPIDEMIC IN RED. 1431 01:01:43,680 --> 01:01:45,960 WE DO NOT INTERRUPT TRANSMISSION 1432 01:01:45,960 --> 01:01:49,240 AND ALSO THE TOTAL SIZE OF THE 1433 01:01:49,240 --> 01:01:49,640 OUTBREAK IS 1434 01:01:49,640 --> 01:01:50,240 [ INDISCERNIBLE ] 1435 01:01:50,240 --> 01:01:57,680 SO CLOSING SCHOOL IS NOT ENOUGH. 1436 01:01:57,680 --> 01:02:01,040 SO WITH CHINA STILL WITH -- 1437 01:02:01,040 --> 01:02:03,440 WE'VE BEEN ABLE TO LOOK AT 1438 01:02:03,440 --> 01:02:05,880 DETAILED CONTACT TRACING DATA 1439 01:02:05,880 --> 01:02:10,360 THAT THEY HAD FROM WUHAN 1440 01:02:10,360 --> 01:02:12,160 PROVINCE AND THIS WAS AT THE 1441 01:02:12,160 --> 01:02:14,800 VERY BEGINNING OF THE OUT BLACK. 1442 01:02:14,800 --> 01:02:16,920 THE NETWORK ON THE RIGHT 1443 01:02:16,920 --> 01:02:18,760 PRESENTED TRANSMISSION OF 1444 01:02:18,760 --> 01:02:23,080 COVID-19 CASES FROM ABOUT 1100 1445 01:02:23,080 --> 01:02:24,520 COVID-19 INFECTIONS. 1446 01:02:24,520 --> 01:02:27,320 THE DIFFERENT COLORS 1447 01:02:27,320 --> 01:02:28,600 REPRESENTING DIFFERENT CITIES 1448 01:02:28,600 --> 01:02:31,440 WITHIN THE PROVINCE. 1449 01:02:31,440 --> 01:02:35,080 AND YOU CAN SEE A HISTOGRAM. 1450 01:02:35,080 --> 01:02:39,360 YOU CAN SEE THAT ABOUT 70% OF 1451 01:02:39,360 --> 01:02:43,240 CASES -- -- SECONDARY INFECTION. 1452 01:02:43,240 --> 01:02:45,760 THERE WAS STRICT CONTACT TRACING 1453 01:02:45,760 --> 01:02:48,440 AND QUARANTINE AS WELL AS SOCIAL 1454 01:02:48,440 --> 01:02:51,360 DISTANCING BUT SOME CASES 1455 01:02:51,360 --> 01:02:52,240 [ INDISCERNIBLE ] 1456 01:02:52,240 --> 01:03:11,720 SO A LOT OF PE -- PET HETEROGENEITY. 1457 01:03:11,720 --> 01:03:13,760 WE ALSO SEE THAT CASES WITH 1458 01:03:13,760 --> 01:03:16,880 FEVER ARE COMING FROM WUHAN WAS 1459 01:03:16,880 --> 01:03:19,640 THE EPICENTER OF THE OUTBREAK. 1460 01:03:19,640 --> 01:03:22,440 THEY WERE SUSPECTINGS THEY HAD 1461 01:03:22,440 --> 01:03:24,880 COVID AND ALSO A LOT OF 1462 01:03:24,880 --> 01:03:26,080 TRANSMISSION OF THE HOUSEHOLD 1463 01:03:26,080 --> 01:03:30,880 AND THE FAMILY OF OVER 80% IS IN 1464 01:03:30,880 --> 01:03:36,080 THAT SETTING BECAUSE -- SO NOT 1465 01:03:36,080 --> 01:03:38,640 MUCH CONTACT IS HAPPENING 1466 01:03:38,640 --> 01:03:41,040 OUTSIDE OF THE FAMILY. 1467 01:03:41,040 --> 01:03:47,320 SO WE CAN ALSO USE THIS DATA ON 1468 01:03:47,320 --> 01:03:49,640 CONTACTS AND TRANSMISSION. 1469 01:03:49,640 --> 01:03:52,240 HERE WE WERE INTERESTED IN DOING 1470 01:03:52,240 --> 01:03:54,080 JUST CASE BASED INTERVENTION 1471 01:03:54,080 --> 01:03:55,440 WHICH WE SEE ON THE LEFT AND 1472 01:03:55,440 --> 01:03:57,760 THAT MEANS DETECTING CASES 1473 01:03:57,760 --> 01:03:59,840 ISOLATING THEM AND QUARANTINING 1474 01:03:59,840 --> 01:04:01,480 CONTACTS AND THEN ON THE 1475 01:04:01,480 --> 01:04:03,880 RIGHT-HAND SIDE WE LAYER CASE 1476 01:04:03,880 --> 01:04:05,160 INTERVENTIONS WITH SOME LEVEL OF 1477 01:04:05,160 --> 01:04:07,000 SOCIAL DISTANCING AND WE CAN SEE 1478 01:04:07,000 --> 01:04:08,800 THAT BECAUSE THERE IS A HIGHER 1479 01:04:08,800 --> 01:04:11,440 RATE OF TRANSMISSION BUT ALSO A 1480 01:04:11,440 --> 01:04:16,400 LOT OF OF THE TRANSMISSION IS IN 1481 01:04:16,400 --> 01:04:19,440 THE PRESYSTEMATIC PHASE IT'S 1482 01:04:19,440 --> 01:04:20,440 VERY DIFFICULT. 1483 01:04:20,440 --> 01:04:23,440 SO YOU WANT TO BE IN THE BLUE 1484 01:04:23,440 --> 01:04:25,240 AREA WHICH IS WHERE THE 1485 01:04:25,240 --> 01:04:26,840 REPRODUCTION NUMBER IS BELOW ONE 1486 01:04:26,840 --> 01:04:30,840 AND YOU'RE NOT ABLE TO SUSTAIN A 1487 01:04:30,840 --> 01:04:31,160 PANDEMIC. 1488 01:04:31,160 --> 01:04:33,880 IF YOU LOOK ON THE RIGHT -- AND 1489 01:04:33,880 --> 01:04:36,720 LAYER IT WITH SOCIAL DISTANCING 1490 01:04:36,720 --> 01:04:40,640 -- YOU THEN ARE BETTER ABLE TO 1491 01:04:40,640 --> 01:04:41,720 REALLY INTERRUPT TRANSMISSION 1492 01:04:41,720 --> 01:04:43,840 AND THIS IS A STRATEGY THAT A 1493 01:04:43,840 --> 01:04:45,440 NUMBER OF COUNTRIES HAVE TRIED 1494 01:04:45,440 --> 01:04:49,200 TO ADOPT. 1495 01:04:49,200 --> 01:04:50,920 SO WE'VE BEEN WORKING WITH 1496 01:04:50,920 --> 01:04:54,720 COLLEAGUES IN SOUTH AFRICA AND 1497 01:04:54,720 --> 01:04:58,320 AT THE NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF 1498 01:04:58,320 --> 01:05:00,040 COMMUNICABLE DISEASE. 1499 01:05:00,040 --> 01:05:02,040 AND WHAT IS INTERESTING ABOUT 1500 01:05:02,040 --> 01:05:06,960 SOUTH AFRICA IS THAT MOST OF THE 1501 01:05:06,960 --> 01:05:08,960 EPIDEMIC HAS BEEN DRIVEN BY 1502 01:05:08,960 --> 01:05:10,960 NATURAL INFECTION. 1503 01:05:10,960 --> 01:05:12,760 THE VACCINE HAS BEEN LATE 1504 01:05:12,760 --> 01:05:13,920 COMING. 1505 01:05:13,920 --> 01:05:18,000 BUT IT'S VERY INTERESTING TO TRY 1506 01:05:18,000 --> 01:05:22,080 TO UNDERSTAND NATURAL IMMUNITY. 1507 01:05:22,080 --> 01:05:26,280 SO TO HAVE A STRONG COHORT -- 1508 01:05:26,280 --> 01:05:28,440 FOLLOWING PARTICIPANTS FOR OVER 1509 01:05:28,440 --> 01:05:30,040 A YEAR THROUGH THREE DIFFERENT 1510 01:05:30,040 --> 01:05:32,000 WAYS OF INFECTION WHICH YOU CAN 1511 01:05:32,000 --> 01:05:41,880 SEE HERE IN GRAY. 1512 01:05:41,880 --> 01:05:46,720 AND THEN PEOPLE ARE PCR'D EVERY 1513 01:05:46,720 --> 01:05:51,640 THREE DAYS AND THEN TESTED EVERY 1514 01:05:51,640 --> 01:05:53,440 THREE MONTHS. 1515 01:05:53,440 --> 01:05:55,240 AND YOU CAN SEE THAT AT THE END 1516 01:05:55,240 --> 01:06:01,160 OF THE DELTA WAVE MAY OF 2021 WE 1517 01:06:01,160 --> 01:06:04,440 SEE ABOUT 60% OF PARTICIPANTS 1518 01:06:04,440 --> 01:06:06,720 HAD BEEN NATURALLY INFECTED AND 1519 01:06:06,720 --> 01:06:11,160 MODELING THE RISK WE SEE THAT 1520 01:06:11,160 --> 01:06:16,480 PRIOR INFECTION IS 85% PROTECTED 1521 01:06:16,480 --> 01:06:18,280 BY ANY VARIENT. 1522 01:06:18,280 --> 01:06:21,520 IT WOULD BE QUITE DIFFERENT WITH 1523 01:06:21,520 --> 01:06:22,200 OMICRON. 1524 01:06:22,200 --> 01:06:25,320 AND WE ALSO SEE -- 1525 01:06:25,320 --> 01:06:26,080 [ INDISCERNIBLE ] 1526 01:06:26,080 --> 01:06:27,760 SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SEE OF 1527 01:06:27,760 --> 01:06:30,240 VACCINATION. 1528 01:06:30,240 --> 01:06:32,720 SO WE CAN USE THIS CAREFUL 1529 01:06:32,720 --> 01:06:37,840 LEHMAN TOWARD COHORT TO MAKE 1530 01:06:37,840 --> 01:06:39,120 PROJECTIONING OF WHAT WILL 1531 01:06:39,120 --> 01:06:39,880 HAPPEN NEXT. 1532 01:06:39,880 --> 01:06:40,840 *. 1533 01:06:40,840 --> 01:06:46,360 WE'RE MAKING PROJECTION OF THE 1534 01:06:46,360 --> 01:06:49,200 OMICRON WAVE. 1535 01:06:49,200 --> 01:06:53,840 AND THE RELATED TRANSMISSIBILITY 1536 01:06:53,840 --> 01:06:54,840 TRANSMISSIBILITY. 1537 01:06:54,840 --> 01:06:57,840 THEN WE'RE LOOKING AT THE 1538 01:06:57,840 --> 01:07:00,640 PROJECTED ATTACK RATE IN SOUTH 1539 01:07:00,640 --> 01:07:03,080 AFRICA WHICH WE PROTECT TO BE 1540 01:07:03,080 --> 01:07:05,440 AROUND 70%. 1541 01:07:05,440 --> 01:07:10,400 THE FOURTH GRAPH PRESENTS THE 1542 01:07:10,400 --> 01:07:14,040 OUTBREAK AND ON THE RIGHT-HAND 1543 01:07:14,040 --> 01:07:17,440 SIDE THE PORTION OF INFECTIONS. 1544 01:07:17,440 --> 01:07:18,960 [ INDISCERNIBLE ] 1545 01:07:18,960 --> 01:07:22,240 SO IN ADDITION TO DOING THIS 1546 01:07:22,240 --> 01:07:24,240 SHELTER IN PROTECTION OF OMICRON 1547 01:07:24,240 --> 01:07:27,200 WE CAN USE THIS DATA TO THINK 1548 01:07:27,200 --> 01:07:30,200 ABOUT THE LONGER TERM 1549 01:07:30,200 --> 01:07:34,120 CONSEQUENCES. 1550 01:07:34,120 --> 01:07:35,880 WHAT COULD BE THE CONSEQUENCES 1551 01:07:35,880 --> 01:07:39,640 OF IMPRINTING WHICH IS THE IDEA 1552 01:07:39,640 --> 01:07:41,320 6 WHAT HAVE WHAT YOU'VE SEEN IN 1553 01:07:41,320 --> 01:07:45,480 THE PAST WILL DRIVE THE FUTURE 1554 01:07:45,480 --> 01:07:46,360 VARIANTS. 1555 01:07:46,360 --> 01:07:46,720 *. 1556 01:07:46,720 --> 01:07:49,120 SO WE'VE ALSO BEEN ABLE TO LOOK 1557 01:07:49,120 --> 01:07:51,840 AT SOUTH AFRICA DATA TO 1558 01:07:51,840 --> 01:07:54,360 UNDERSTAND THE IN DIRECT 1559 01:07:54,360 --> 01:07:55,240 CONSEQUENCES OF THE PANDEMIC AND 1560 01:07:55,240 --> 01:07:57,120 THAT IS THE CONSEQUENCES ON A 1561 01:07:57,120 --> 01:07:58,560 RANGE OF CHRONIC INFECTION. 1562 01:07:58,560 --> 01:08:01,600 THIS IS A TOPIC THAT IS STUDIED 1563 01:08:01,600 --> 01:08:05,760 A LOT. 1564 01:08:05,760 --> 01:08:08,200 BUT WE RELIED ON THE 1565 01:08:08,200 --> 01:08:11,240 SURVEILLANCE FROM THE PRIVATE 1566 01:08:11,240 --> 01:08:12,560 HEALTH CARE SYSTEM WHICH IS 1567 01:08:12,560 --> 01:08:18,480 CALLED MED CARE. 1568 01:08:18,480 --> 01:08:21,480 AND WE SEE THOSE AT THE BOTTOM 1569 01:08:21,480 --> 01:08:22,280 GRAPHS HERE. 1570 01:08:22,280 --> 01:08:24,640 WHAT IS GOOD IS THEY HAVE 1571 01:08:24,640 --> 01:08:27,040 HISTORICAL DATA BEFORE COVID-19 1572 01:08:27,040 --> 01:08:29,440 WHICH IS IN BLUE WHICH ALLOWS US 1573 01:08:29,440 --> 01:08:34,280 TO CREATE A BASELINE LEVEL OF 1574 01:08:34,280 --> 01:08:37,320 HOSPITALIZATION MIRRORING WHAT 1575 01:08:37,320 --> 01:08:39,480 COULD HAVE HAPPENED IF COVID-19 1576 01:08:39,480 --> 01:08:40,800 WAS NOT CIRCULATING. 1577 01:08:40,800 --> 01:08:43,120 AND THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE 1578 01:08:43,120 --> 01:08:45,920 BLUE LINE VERSUS THE BLACK WHICH 1579 01:08:45,920 --> 01:08:47,440 IS WHAT HAPPENED WE CAN SEE THE 1580 01:08:47,440 --> 01:08:49,120 IMPACT OF THE PANDEMIC. 1581 01:08:49,120 --> 01:08:52,840 SO HERE WE'RE LOOKING AT THE 1582 01:08:52,840 --> 01:08:55,200 IMPACT OF RESPIRATORY 1583 01:08:55,200 --> 01:08:55,840 ADMISSIONS. 1584 01:08:55,840 --> 01:08:58,880 AND WITH CHILDREN WE'RE SEEING 1585 01:08:58,880 --> 01:09:00,920 FEWER HOSPITALIZATION THAN IN 1586 01:09:00,920 --> 01:09:01,840 NORMAL YEARS. 1587 01:09:01,840 --> 01:09:04,160 HOWEVER IN ADULTS WE'RE SEEING 1588 01:09:04,160 --> 01:09:06,560 MORE HOSPITALIZATIONS THAN IN 1589 01:09:06,560 --> 01:09:10,560 NORMAL YEARS DUE TO COVID-19 AND 1590 01:09:10,560 --> 01:09:13,120 WE THINK SOME OF THE CHANGES 1591 01:09:13,120 --> 01:09:15,640 THAT ARE EXPLAINED. 1592 01:09:15,640 --> 01:09:20,120 IN BLUE WE HAVE THE VIRUSES AND 1593 01:09:20,120 --> 01:09:35,000 IN ORANGE WE HAVE THE COVID-19. 1594 01:09:35,000 --> 01:09:36,840 SO THIS WAS COVID-19 BUT THE 1595 01:09:36,840 --> 01:09:39,440 INTEREST WAS TO LOOK AT OTHER 1596 01:09:39,440 --> 01:09:41,400 CONDITIONS NOT RELATED TO 1597 01:09:41,400 --> 01:09:41,840 COVID-19. 1598 01:09:41,840 --> 01:09:44,200 WE'RE LOOKING AT 19 DIFFERENT 1599 01:09:44,200 --> 01:09:45,600 CONDITIONS THAT LEAD PEOPLE TO 1600 01:09:45,600 --> 01:09:46,240 THE HOSPITAL. 1601 01:09:46,240 --> 01:09:47,280 SOME ACUTE. 1602 01:09:47,280 --> 01:09:48,760 SOME CHRONIC. 1603 01:09:48,760 --> 01:09:50,640 WE'LL FOCUS ON THE TOP LEFT FOR 1604 01:09:50,640 --> 01:09:51,400 A SECOND. 1605 01:09:51,400 --> 01:09:55,160 THIS IS FOR NONCOVID-19 1606 01:09:55,160 --> 01:09:57,800 PNEUMONIA AND INFLUENZA 1607 01:09:57,800 --> 01:10:05,000 HOSPITALIZATIONS. 1608 01:10:05,000 --> 01:10:05,920 PRELOCKDOWN IS THE REFERENCE 1609 01:10:05,920 --> 01:10:09,160 BEFORE COVID-19 AND ON THE Y 1610 01:10:09,160 --> 01:10:12,600 AXIS WE HAVE DIFFERENT PHASES 1611 01:10:12,600 --> 01:10:22,680 LINED UP CHRONOLOGICALLY. 1612 01:10:22,680 --> 01:10:25,840 AND YOU CAN SEE THAT FOR 1613 01:10:25,840 --> 01:10:29,040 PNEUMONIA AND INFLUENZA WE SEE A 1614 01:10:29,040 --> 01:10:31,880 SUBSTANTIAL DECREASE MORE THAN 1615 01:10:31,880 --> 01:10:33,120 50% FOR SOME OF THE PERIOD 1616 01:10:33,120 --> 01:10:34,440 RELATED TO PAST YEARS. 1617 01:10:34,440 --> 01:10:38,120 BECAUSE WE THINK THERE HAVE BEEN 1618 01:10:38,120 --> 01:10:43,920 FEWER RESPIRATORY VI VIRUSES BEYOND 1619 01:10:43,920 --> 01:10:51,040 COVID-19. 1620 01:10:51,040 --> 01:10:53,200 BUT WE ALSO SEE SOME OF THE 1621 01:10:53,200 --> 01:10:57,200 CHANGES FOR A RANGE OF 1622 01:10:57,200 --> 01:11:00,120 CARDIOVASCULAR CONDITIONS AND 1623 01:11:00,120 --> 01:11:04,160 CANCERS AND INJURY. 1624 01:11:04,160 --> 01:11:07,800 THOSE CHANGES ARE BECAUSE PEOPLE 1625 01:11:07,800 --> 01:11:10,080 AVERTED THE HEALTH CARE SYSTEM 1626 01:11:10,080 --> 01:11:11,840 DURING LOCKDOWN AND PERHAPS 1627 01:11:11,840 --> 01:11:14,680 13469 CONDITIONS ARE BEING 1628 01:11:14,680 --> 01:11:17,440 MISDIAGNOSISSED OR MISTREATED 1629 01:11:17,440 --> 01:11:19,000 BECAUSE PEOPLE DIDN'T REALLY 1630 01:11:19,000 --> 01:11:21,960 CARE FOR IT AND THAT MIGHT 1631 01:11:21,960 --> 01:11:23,040 TRANSLATE INTO -- 1632 01:11:23,040 --> 01:11:24,640 [ INDISCERNIBLE ] 1633 01:11:24,640 --> 01:11:26,560 IN THOSE CONDITIONS AFTER 1634 01:11:26,560 --> 01:11:27,920 COVID-19. 1635 01:11:27,920 --> 01:11:29,600 THIS IS MY LAST SLIDE. 1636 01:11:29,600 --> 01:11:31,800 I HOPE TO GIVE YOU AN OVERVIEW 1637 01:11:31,800 --> 01:11:34,840 OF WHAT MODELING HAS BECOME AS A 1638 01:11:34,840 --> 01:11:35,240 TOOL. 1639 01:11:35,240 --> 01:11:38,840 TO HELP US ANTICIPATE THE 1640 01:11:38,840 --> 01:11:41,240 PROGRESSION OF THE PANDEMIC AND 1641 01:11:41,240 --> 01:11:43,160 ALSO THE CONSEQUENCES OF THE 1642 01:11:43,160 --> 01:11:44,520 PANDEMIC ON A RANGE OF 1643 01:11:44,520 --> 01:11:47,360 CONDITIONS AND WE THINK IT'S 1644 01:11:47,360 --> 01:11:53,240 VERY IMPORTANT IN BUILDING SO 1645 01:11:53,240 --> 01:11:54,520 THAT PEOPLE CAN LOOK AND 1646 01:11:54,520 --> 01:11:57,160 UNDERSTAND THE DATA AND MONITOR 1647 01:11:57,160 --> 01:11:59,960 THE PROGRESS OF THE PANDEMIC. 1648 01:11:59,960 --> 01:12:03,440 THANK YOU ROGER AND BACK TO YOU. 1649 01:12:03,440 --> 01:12:14,080 >> THANK YOU VER CECIL. 1650 01:12:14,080 --> 01:12:16,960 WE THINK DATA SCIENCE IS 1651 01:12:16,960 --> 01:12:19,840 IMPORTANT FOR ALL KINDS OF 1652 01:12:19,840 --> 01:12:21,720 HEALTH INTERVENTIONS AND ALL 1653 01:12:21,720 --> 01:12:23,400 KINDS OF RESEARCH. 1654 01:12:23,400 --> 01:12:26,880 IT'S ESSENTIAL TO GO ALONG WITH 1655 01:12:26,880 --> 01:12:27,280 INNOVATION. 1656 01:12:27,280 --> 01:12:31,160 THIS IS LAUNCHED. 1657 01:12:31,160 --> 01:12:33,040 $5 MILLION TO 12 AFRICAN 1658 01:12:33,040 --> 01:12:35,440 COUNTRIES WITH 15 OTHER 1659 01:12:35,440 --> 01:12:37,320 INSTITUTES BESIDES THE FOUR OF 1660 01:12:37,320 --> 01:12:38,120 US. 1661 01:12:48,720 --> 01:12:50,680 OTHER CHANGES THAT HAVE OCCURRED 1662 01:12:50,680 --> 01:12:51,640 THROUGH SCIENCE. 1663 01:12:51,640 --> 01:12:52,880 THE FACT THAT ALL OF THE 1664 01:12:52,880 --> 01:12:54,640 RESEARCH THAT IS GOING ON NOW 1665 01:12:54,640 --> 01:12:58,440 MUCH OF THE RESEARCH IS FOUND IN 1666 01:12:58,440 --> 01:13:01,280 PREPRINTS AS OPPOSED TO THE PEER 1667 01:13:01,280 --> 01:13:03,200 REVIEW LITERATURE WHICH HAS THE 1668 01:13:03,200 --> 01:13:04,960 ADVANTAGE OF GETTING SEEN 1669 01:13:04,960 --> 01:13:09,000 RAPIDLY WHEN IT'S VALUABLE AND 1670 01:13:09,000 --> 01:13:11,520 ALSO THAT NONPEER REVIEWED 1671 01:13:11,520 --> 01:13:12,320 THINGS CAN BE SEEN. 1672 01:13:12,320 --> 01:13:17,360 BUT IT'S THE SPEEDED UP REVIEW 1673 01:13:17,360 --> 01:13:19,120 THAT CAN BE VIEWED QUICKLY. 1674 01:13:19,120 --> 01:13:21,160 THE EMERGENCY USE AUTHORIZATION 1675 01:13:21,160 --> 01:13:22,760 THAT WAS PIONEERED IN THE UNITED 1676 01:13:22,760 --> 01:13:23,920 STATES HAS GONE THROUGHOUT THE 1677 01:13:23,920 --> 01:13:25,880 WORLD AND MANY COUNTRIES NOW 1678 01:13:25,880 --> 01:13:28,520 LIKE INDIA HAVE GIVEN EMERGENCY 1679 01:13:28,520 --> 01:13:30,800 USE AUTHORIZATIONS TO NEW 1680 01:13:30,800 --> 01:13:32,520 VACCINES BEFORE THE FULL-TIME TO 1681 01:13:32,520 --> 01:13:35,680 MONITOR FOR SEVERAL YEARS TO SEE 1682 01:13:35,680 --> 01:13:37,800 VACCINE LONG-TERM ADVERSE 1683 01:13:37,800 --> 01:13:39,240 CONSEQUENCES OF VACCINE. 1684 01:13:39,240 --> 01:13:42,160 WE'VE SEEN IN THE U.S. ELEVATION 1685 01:13:42,160 --> 01:13:43,800 OF SCIENCE IN THE U.S. 1686 01:13:43,800 --> 01:13:44,760 GOVERNMENT. 1687 01:13:44,760 --> 01:13:47,960 ERIC LANDER IN THE CABINET AND 1688 01:13:47,960 --> 01:13:49,920 TONY AS THE CHIEF MEDICAL 1689 01:13:49,920 --> 01:13:51,880 ADVISOR WE WOULD LOVE TO SEE 1690 01:13:51,880 --> 01:13:54,120 CABINET MINISTERS IN AFRICAN 1691 01:13:54,120 --> 01:13:54,960 COUNTRIES WHO ARE CONCERNED 1692 01:13:54,960 --> 01:13:56,880 ABOUT SCIENCE, RESEARCH AND 1693 01:13:56,880 --> 01:13:57,240 HEALTH. 1694 01:13:57,240 --> 01:14:00,640 BUT SCIENCE AND RESEARCH AND 1695 01:14:00,640 --> 01:14:02,320 SPECIFICALLY. 1696 01:14:02,320 --> 01:14:05,520 THIS WOULD CHANGE THE WAY WE 1697 01:14:05,520 --> 01:14:06,080 VIEW THINGS. 1698 01:14:06,080 --> 01:14:07,040 THIS IS SO IMPORTANT. 1699 01:14:07,040 --> 01:14:08,760 THE PANDEMIC AND DEALING WITH 1700 01:14:08,760 --> 01:14:14,640 THE EQUITY ISSUES THAT THE G-7 1701 01:14:14,640 --> 01:14:17,800 SPECIFICALLY GOT TOGETHER JUST 1702 01:14:17,800 --> 01:14:19,640 RECENTLY AND DECIDED THAT 1703 01:14:19,640 --> 01:14:21,640 SEVERAL INTERVENTIONS WERE 1704 01:14:21,640 --> 01:14:22,880 CLEARLY IMPORTANT 1705 01:14:22,880 --> 01:14:24,200 TRYING TO GET GLOBAL 1706 01:14:24,200 --> 01:14:25,840 SURVEILLANCE AND DETECTION OF 1707 01:14:25,840 --> 01:14:28,320 NEW OUTBREAKS BY A SURVEILLANCE 1708 01:14:28,320 --> 01:14:30,160 NETWORK THAT COULD IDENTIFY 1709 01:14:30,160 --> 01:14:32,480 OUTBREAKS WITHIN A WEEK. 1710 01:14:32,480 --> 01:14:34,040 DEVELOPING NEW VACCINES WITH A 1711 01:14:34,040 --> 01:14:37,400 TARGET OF LESS THAN 100 DAYS. 1712 01:14:37,400 --> 01:14:39,240 CONSTRUCTING VACCINE CONSTRUCTS 1713 01:14:39,240 --> 01:14:42,120 FOR 20 FAMILIES OF VIRUSES SO WE 1714 01:14:42,120 --> 01:14:45,000 CAN TAKE THEM OFF THE SHELF WHEN 1715 01:14:45,000 --> 01:14:48,240 A NEW PANDEMIC OCCURS. 1716 01:14:48,240 --> 01:14:50,120 THIS WOULD PROTECT THE PLANET 1717 01:14:50,120 --> 01:14:52,800 AND EMBRACE THE FUTURE. 1718 01:14:52,800 --> 01:14:55,720 BEYOND THAT WE'VE HAD AN ISSUE 1719 01:14:55,720 --> 01:14:58,040 OF DISINFORMATION AND I WAS 1720 01:14:58,040 --> 01:15:02,440 STRUCK IN ROWS WANDA HOW LITTLE 1721 01:15:02,440 --> 01:15:04,480 VACCINE HESITANCY THERE WAS. 1722 01:15:04,480 --> 01:15:08,120 PEOPLE WERE EXCITED TO GET THE 1723 01:15:08,120 --> 01:15:08,480 VACCINE. 1724 01:15:08,480 --> 01:15:09,960 THEY WERE PREPARED TO RECEIVE IT 1725 01:15:09,960 --> 01:15:15,360 WHEN IT WA IT WAS THERE. 1726 01:15:15,360 --> 01:15:16,880 SOMETHING THAT NEEDS TO BE 1727 01:15:16,880 --> 01:15:17,640 STUDIED. 1728 01:15:17,640 --> 01:15:19,400 VACCINE MANDATES ARE BEING USED 1729 01:15:19,400 --> 01:15:20,680 IN SOME COUNTRIES AND NOT 1730 01:15:20,680 --> 01:15:21,160 OTHERS. 1731 01:15:21,160 --> 01:15:22,920 SOMETHING THAT WE'RE CONSIDERING 1732 01:15:22,920 --> 01:15:25,360 HERE BUT WOULD LOVE TO SEE HOW 1733 01:15:25,360 --> 01:15:26,960 THE OTHER COUNTRIES RESPOND TO 1734 01:15:26,960 --> 01:15:30,040 THIS. 1735 01:15:30,040 --> 01:15:32,760 HAS COVID TAUGHT US ANYTHING 1736 01:15:32,760 --> 01:15:34,360 ABOUT PANDEMIC PREPAREDNESS. 1737 01:15:34,360 --> 01:15:36,640 WE HAVE TO STUDY THIS CAREFULLY 1738 01:15:36,640 --> 01:15:40,520 BECAUSE WE HAVE TO KNOW HOW TO 1739 01:15:40,520 --> 01:15:42,640 DO THINGS BETTER NEXT TIME. 1740 01:15:42,640 --> 01:15:45,160 MY SON IS A MEDICAL STUDENT. 1741 01:15:45,160 --> 01:15:47,120 HE SPENT TWO YEARS IN VIRTUAL 1742 01:15:47,120 --> 01:15:49,960 LEARNING SO I HOPE THAT VIRTUAL 1743 01:15:49,960 --> 01:15:52,240 LEARNING IS AS QUALITY AS THE 1744 01:15:52,240 --> 01:15:53,160 REAL THING. 1745 01:15:53,160 --> 01:15:54,440 MAYBE IT'S BETTER. 1746 01:15:54,440 --> 01:15:56,080 BUT THAT IS SOMETHING THAT WE'RE 1747 01:15:56,080 --> 01:15:57,960 GOING TO SEE MORE OF. 1748 01:15:57,960 --> 01:16:01,320 BUT IT'S CERTAINLY PORTABLE TO 1749 01:16:01,320 --> 01:16:02,000 OTHER COUNTRIES. 1750 01:16:02,000 --> 01:16:04,280 THE GLOBAL RESPONSE OF THE 1751 01:16:04,280 --> 01:16:06,080 PANDEMIC HAS BEEN EXTRAORDINARY. 1752 01:16:06,080 --> 01:16:08,720 EVERYONE IS INVOLVED IN TRYING 1753 01:16:08,720 --> 01:16:10,480 TO HELP BRING ABOUT AN END TO 1754 01:16:10,480 --> 01:16:12,040 THIS PANDEMIC BECAUSE WE'RE ALL 1755 01:16:12,040 --> 01:16:14,960 IN THIS TOGETHER. 1756 01:16:14,960 --> 01:16:18,040 PHO -- THE GLOBAL ALLIANCE FOR 1757 01:16:18,040 --> 01:16:19,240 VACCINES. 1758 01:16:19,240 --> 01:16:22,800 THE AFRICAN UNION. 1759 01:16:22,800 --> 01:16:25,040 PRIVATE SECTOR, INDUSTRY ARE ALL 1760 01:16:25,040 --> 01:16:27,440 LOOKING IN INVESTING IN AFRICA 1761 01:16:27,440 --> 01:16:29,360 IN DIFFERENT WAYS. 1762 01:16:29,360 --> 01:16:30,840 AFRICAN GOVERNMENTS ARE ALL 1763 01:16:30,840 --> 01:16:31,360 ON-BOARD. 1764 01:16:31,360 --> 01:16:34,280 THE G-7. 1765 01:16:34,280 --> 01:16:35,440 THE ACADEMIC CENTER. 1766 01:16:35,440 --> 01:16:38,160 WHAT CAN WE DO? 1767 01:16:38,160 --> 01:16:39,720 THE TWO OF THINGS THAT WE CAN 1768 01:16:39,720 --> 01:16:42,040 PROVIDE IN THIS SETTING ARE 1769 01:16:42,040 --> 01:16:43,840 TRAINING AND RESEARCH AND I 1770 01:16:43,840 --> 01:16:46,240 THINK THE EXPANSION OF THESE IN 1771 01:16:46,240 --> 01:16:48,520 AFRICA AS WE'VE DONE WITH AIDS 1772 01:16:48,520 --> 01:16:50,520 AND HAS BEEN SO EFFECTIVE IN THE 1773 01:16:50,520 --> 01:16:52,320 PAST 30 YEARS. 1774 01:16:52,320 --> 01:16:56,960 PETER MY DEPUTY AND I MADE A 1775 01:16:56,960 --> 01:17:01,840 COMMENTARY WHICH STATES THAT 1776 01:17:01,840 --> 01:17:03,880 [ INDISCERNIBLE ] 1777 01:17:03,880 --> 01:17:06,880 OF HEALTH RESEARCH CAPACITY AS 1778 01:17:06,880 --> 01:17:11,400 AN ESSENTIAL ELEMENT OF PANDEMIC 1779 01:17:11,400 --> 01:17:11,840 PREPAREDNESS. 1780 01:17:11,840 --> 01:17:14,240 WHEN WE LOOK AT THE LEADERS IN 1781 01:17:14,240 --> 01:17:16,600 AFRICA AND BEYOND JOHN LEADING 1782 01:17:16,600 --> 01:17:20,760 THE AFRICAN CDC, LINDA GRAY IS 1783 01:17:20,760 --> 01:17:22,640 HEAD OF THE SOUTH AFRICAN 1784 01:17:22,640 --> 01:17:24,200 MEDICAL RESEARCH COUNCIL WORKING 1785 01:17:24,200 --> 01:17:29,000 TO GET VACCINE MANUFACTURERS IN 1786 01:17:29,000 --> 01:17:33,840 AFRICA. 1787 01:17:33,840 --> 01:17:44,640 SLIM -- -- WORKING TO GET 1788 01:17:44,640 --> 01:17:46,120 DIAGNOSTICS WITH THE AFRICAN 1789 01:17:46,120 --> 01:17:51,000 UNION. 1790 01:17:51,000 --> 01:17:57,280 JEAN NACHEGA WORKING ON SIM POSE 1791 01:17:57,280 --> 01:18:03,360 YAM US JUST LIKE THIS ONE. 1792 01:18:03,360 --> 01:18:06,200 AND DR. WU. 1793 01:18:06,200 --> 01:18:09,040 THOSE FOREIGN LEADERS TRAIN 1794 01:18:09,040 --> 01:18:11,560 THROUGH NIH AND FOGARTY PROGRAMS 1795 01:18:11,560 --> 01:18:14,240 ARE REALLY OUR LINK TO THE WORLD 1796 01:18:14,240 --> 01:18:16,880 TO BUILD BACK THE FUTURE. 1797 01:18:16,880 --> 01:18:19,040 CHALLENGES GOING FORWARD. 1798 01:18:19,040 --> 01:18:21,440 BUILDING THAT EPIDEMIC 1799 01:18:21,440 --> 01:18:24,000 SURVEILLANCE SYSTEM TO IDENTIFY 1800 01:18:24,000 --> 01:18:26,240 NEW OUTBREAKS. 1801 01:18:26,240 --> 01:18:28,920 ESTABLISHING CENTERS TO MAKE 1802 01:18:28,920 --> 01:18:33,160 VACCINES, DRUG SUPPLIES AND 1803 01:18:33,160 --> 01:18:35,920 DEVICES LOCALLY. 1804 01:18:35,920 --> 01:18:38,880 MULTIPLE PROVIDERS OF KEY 1805 01:18:38,880 --> 01:18:41,240 INGREDIENTS THAT ARE AVAILABLE. 1806 01:18:41,240 --> 01:18:42,520 ACCELERATE RESEARCH UNDER 1807 01:18:42,520 --> 01:18:44,840 VACCINE GROUPS. 1808 01:18:44,840 --> 01:18:48,920 ACCESSING COLLATERAL DAMAGE. 1809 01:18:48,920 --> 01:18:51,640 CAN WE GRANT BIOSECURITY. 1810 01:18:51,640 --> 01:18:53,760 THE SAME PRIORITY AS MILITARY 1811 01:18:53,760 --> 01:18:54,600 SECURITY. 1812 01:18:54,600 --> 01:18:56,800 SO HOW DO WE PREPARE FOR THE 1813 01:18:56,800 --> 01:18:57,600 NEXT PANDEMIC? 1814 01:18:57,600 --> 01:18:58,920 WELL FIRST WE HAVE TO RECOGNIZE 1815 01:18:58,920 --> 01:19:01,120 THAT WE WON'T BE SAFE UNTIL WE 1816 01:19:01,120 --> 01:19:03,560 ALL ARE SAFE AND THIS INCLUDES 1817 01:19:03,560 --> 01:19:05,760 PEOPLE IN LOW AND MIDDLE INCOME 1818 01:19:05,760 --> 01:19:07,360 COUNTRIES WHO DON'T YET HAVE 1819 01:19:07,360 --> 01:19:09,840 ACCESS TO VACCINES AND 1820 01:19:09,840 --> 01:19:11,600 DIAGNOSTICS AND DRUGS AND THAT 1821 01:19:11,600 --> 01:19:13,920 WILL BEGIN WITH SETTING UP THE 1822 01:19:13,920 --> 01:19:15,480 GLOBAL SURVEILLANCE AND MODELING 1823 01:19:15,480 --> 01:19:15,840 SUPPORT. 1824 01:19:15,840 --> 01:19:19,920 WE HAVE TO GET THE AFRICAN 1825 01:19:19,920 --> 01:19:23,240 LEADERS AND UNION WHO ARE NOW 1826 01:19:23,240 --> 01:19:26,760 MOTIVATED TO RESPOND TO BUILD ON 1827 01:19:26,760 --> 01:19:29,200 THEIR PLAN THROUGH THE AFRICAN 1828 01:19:29,200 --> 01:19:32,240 CDC AND DEFINITELY A BIOTECH 1829 01:19:32,240 --> 01:19:33,880 INDUSTRY WHICH SOME OF THE 1830 01:19:33,880 --> 01:19:39,960 COUNTRIES HAVE JUST BEGUN TO DO. 1831 01:19:39,960 --> 01:19:42,200 PEOPLE ARE INTUNE TO DO THINGS. 1832 01:19:42,200 --> 01:19:45,480 THE GLOBAL COMMUNITY IS TRYING 1833 01:19:45,480 --> 01:19:48,960 TO HELP IN ALL SORTS OF WAYS. 1834 01:19:48,960 --> 01:19:51,000 NOT ALWAYS WELL COORDINATED BUT 1835 01:19:51,000 --> 01:19:52,240 THE SPIRIT IS THERE. 1836 01:19:52,240 --> 01:19:54,480 AND ULTIMATELY GLOBAL 1837 01:19:54,480 --> 01:19:56,680 COLLABORATIONS HAVE DEMONSTRATED 1838 01:19:56,680 --> 01:19:59,480 AS WITH HIV THAT THESE 1839 01:19:59,480 --> 01:20:01,320 DISCOVERIES IN SCIENCE CAN LEAD 1840 01:20:01,320 --> 01:20:02,520 TO INDUSTRY AND FUNDING 1841 01:20:02,520 --> 01:20:03,840 PARTNERSHIPS THAT HAVE TURNED 1842 01:20:03,840 --> 01:20:06,040 THAT PANDEMIC OF HIV INTO A 1843 01:20:06,040 --> 01:20:07,520 CHRONIC DISEASE. 1844 01:20:07,520 --> 01:20:11,680 WE HAVE A WAYS TO GO WITH COVID 1845 01:20:11,680 --> 01:20:13,120 BUT THIS IS SOMETHING THAT WE 1846 01:20:13,120 --> 01:20:15,040 MUST PURSUE TODAY. 1847 01:20:15,040 --> 01:20:19,120 I WANT TO GIVE A BIG SHOUT OUT 1848 01:20:19,120 --> 01:20:23,480 TO WIN -- WHO HAS DEVELOPED THIS 1849 01:20:23,480 --> 01:20:25,000 INCREDIBLE PROGRAM. 1850 01:20:25,000 --> 01:20:27,360 AND DAN KASTNER. 1851 01:20:27,360 --> 01:20:29,320 YOU'VE DONE A GREAT SERVICE TO 1852 01:20:29,320 --> 01:20:30,400 THE MEDICAL COMMUNITY AND THE 1853 01:20:30,400 --> 01:20:32,440 WORLD TO PUT THESE ON THE WEB 1854 01:20:32,440 --> 01:20:34,560 AND ARCHIVE THEM. 1855 01:20:34,560 --> 01:20:37,360 AND DAN YOU HAVE BIG SHOES TO 1856 01:20:37,360 --> 01:20:37,680 FILL. 1857 01:20:37,680 --> 01:20:39,560 THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR LETTING ME 1858 01:20:39,560 --> 01:20:43,280 SPEAK TO YOU TODAY. 1859 01:20:43,280 --> 01:20:44,840 >> THANK YOU, THANK YOU VERY 1860 01:20:44,840 --> 01:20:45,920 MUCH ROGER. 1861 01:20:45,920 --> 01:20:54,200 .-- IT'S EXCITING TO SEE HOW THIS 1862 01:20:54,200 --> 01:20:59,640 TRULY IS BEING TRANSLATED INTO A 1863 01:20:59,640 --> 01:21:01,240 PLAN OF GLOBAL ACTION RATHER 1864 01:21:01,240 --> 01:21:06,520 THAN JUST GLOBAL RECOGNITION 1865 01:21:06,520 --> 01:21:12,840 WHICH BECAME APPARENT DURING THE 1866 01:21:12,840 --> 01:21:13,360 EPIDEMIC. 1867 01:21:13,360 --> 01:21:17,600 WE HAD A GLITCH IN THE 1868 01:21:17,600 --> 01:21:18,920 SUBMITTING OF QUESTIONS. 1869 01:21:18,920 --> 01:21:21,840 SO NOT ALL OF THE QUESTIONS THAT 1870 01:21:21,840 --> 01:21:24,640 WERE SUBMITTED WAS IT POSSIBLE 1871 01:21:24,640 --> 01:21:26,840 TO PRESENT TO HIM WHILE HE WAS 1872 01:21:26,840 --> 01:21:30,840 WITH US BUT WE'LL FORWARD THEM 1873 01:21:30,840 --> 01:21:35,080 TO HIM. 1874 01:21:35,080 --> 01:21:41,000 WE APOLOGIZE. 1875 01:21:41,000 --> 01:21:43,240 WITH SPECIFICALLY ROGER WHAT DO 1876 01:21:43,240 --> 01:21:46,560 YOU THINK -- WHY DO YOU THINK 1877 01:21:46,560 --> 01:21:49,240 THE PEAK OF INFECTION IS 1878 01:21:49,240 --> 01:21:51,480 DECREASING SO RAPIDLY IN SOUTH 1879 01:21:51,480 --> 01:21:53,480 AFRICA? 1880 01:21:53,480 --> 01:21:55,560 WHAT DO YOU BELIEVE -- WHAT ARE 1881 01:21:55,560 --> 01:21:57,440 THE MECHANISMS THAT COULD BE 1882 01:21:57,440 --> 01:21:59,880 RESPONSIBLE FOR THAT AND IS PART 1883 01:21:59,880 --> 01:22:03,440 OF THAT DUE TO VAC NATION? 1884 01:22:03,440 --> 01:22:06,200 AND THE * PUBLIC HEALTH 1885 01:22:06,200 --> 01:22:07,000 RESPONSE. 1886 01:22:07,000 --> 01:22:12,120 >> THAT IS A QUESTION FOR THE 1887 01:22:12,120 --> 01:22:12,480 MODELER. 1888 01:22:12,480 --> 01:22:15,120 IT IS SO BIG THAT IT'S GOING TO 1889 01:22:15,120 --> 01:22:20,040 COME QUICKLY AND GO QUICKLY. 1890 01:22:20,040 --> 01:22:22,520 CECIL CAN YOU COMMENT ON THAT? 1891 01:22:22,520 --> 01:22:23,040 >> YEAH. 1892 01:22:23,040 --> 01:22:27,720 BUT YOU ANSWERED IT WONFULLY, 1893 01:22:27,720 --> 01:22:28,640 ROGER. 1894 01:22:28,640 --> 01:22:32,800 * WE DON'T THINK IT'S 1895 01:22:32,800 --> 01:22:34,640 INTERVENTIONS OR VACCINATION. 1896 01:22:34,640 --> 01:22:36,040 BECAUSE WHAT WE HEAR ON THE 1897 01:22:36,040 --> 01:22:37,960 GROUND IS NOTHING REALLY 1898 01:22:37,960 --> 01:22:38,960 HAPPENED IN TERMS OF 1899 01:22:38,960 --> 01:22:44,040 INTERVENTION AND THE VACCINE 1900 01:22:44,040 --> 01:22:45,560 ROLLOUT IS STILL RELATIVELY 1901 01:22:45,560 --> 01:22:46,520 SLOW. 1902 01:22:46,520 --> 01:22:49,000 WITH THE HIGH TRANSMISSION RATE 1903 01:22:49,000 --> 01:22:51,800 YOU WOULD EXPECT IT TO BE SPIKEY 1904 01:22:51,800 --> 01:22:55,440 AND BURN ITSELF OUT QUICKLY 1905 01:22:55,440 --> 01:22:57,360 WHICH IT HAS. 1906 01:22:57,360 --> 01:22:58,880 >> CAN WE BELIEVE THAT WE'RE 1907 01:22:58,880 --> 01:23:00,640 GOING TO BE BETTER IN THE U.S. 1908 01:23:00,640 --> 01:23:01,840 BY FEBRUARY OR MARCH? 1909 01:23:01,840 --> 01:23:05,840 THAT IS A QUESTION FOR TONY? 1910 01:23:05,840 --> 01:23:08,440 >> YES. 1911 01:23:08,440 --> 01:23:18,640 WE HOPE SO. 1912 01:23:18,640 --> 01:23:20,240 >> DO YOU THINK IT WILL BE GOING 1913 01:23:20,240 --> 01:23:23,240 AWAY IN THE U.S. BY FEBRUARY OR 1914 01:23:23,240 --> 01:23:26,040 MARCH, CECIL. 1915 01:23:26,040 --> 01:23:28,640 WHAT ANSWERS DO THEY PROVIDE? 1916 01:23:28,640 --> 01:23:31,080 >> WE'RE RUNNING PREDICTIONS 1917 01:23:31,080 --> 01:23:33,080 COMBINING RESULTS FROM DIFFERENT 1918 01:23:33,080 --> 01:23:34,800 MODELS IN THE U.S. WHICH 1919 01:23:34,800 --> 01:23:36,600 PREDICTIONS IS WHAT WAS RELEASED 1920 01:23:36,600 --> 01:23:39,880 TODAY AND OUR PREDICTION IS THE 1921 01:23:39,880 --> 01:23:43,200 PEAK OF THE EPIDEMIC WILL BE 1922 01:23:43,200 --> 01:23:44,840 REACHED WITHIN ONE TO THREE 1923 01:23:44,840 --> 01:23:45,720 WEEKS. 1924 01:23:45,720 --> 01:23:46,640 VERY SOON. 1925 01:23:46,640 --> 01:23:49,840 DEFINITELY BY JANUARY. 1926 01:23:49,840 --> 01:23:54,680 ALIGNING WITH TONY'S 1927 01:23:54,680 --> 01:23:58,240 PROJECTSESES IT WILL BE MUCH 1928 01:23:58,240 --> 01:23:59,360 BETTER BY FEBRUARY. 1929 01:23:59,360 --> 01:24:03,400 BUT THE SEVERITY OF THE DISEASE 1930 01:24:03,400 --> 01:24:03,520 -- 1931 01:24:03,520 --> 01:24:05,440 [ INDISCERNIBLE ] 1932 01:24:05,440 --> 01:24:07,880 AND THAT WILL LEAD TO 1933 01:24:07,880 --> 01:24:09,640 HOSPITALIZATIONS IN UNVACCINATED 1934 01:24:09,640 --> 01:24:12,800 PEOPLE. 1935 01:24:12,800 --> 01:24:16,360 >> THANK YOU. 1936 01:24:16,360 --> 01:24:19,760 >> THE QUESTION IS -- THE USE OF 1937 01:24:19,760 --> 01:24:23,680 MODELING IS DEPENDENT UPON THE 1938 01:24:23,680 --> 01:24:27,040 RELIABILITY ACCURACY OF THE 1939 01:24:27,040 --> 01:24:28,840 INFORMATION THAT IS PROVIDED FOR 1940 01:24:28,840 --> 01:24:31,520 THE MODELING SYSTEM. 1941 01:24:31,520 --> 01:24:36,120 TO WHAT EXTENT, ARE THERE 1942 01:24:36,120 --> 01:24:38,160 PROBLEMS IN ACCESSING THAT KIND 1943 01:24:38,160 --> 01:24:39,720 OF INFORMATION PARTICULARLY IN 1944 01:24:39,720 --> 01:24:42,640 MANY OF THE COUNTRIES IN AFRICA 1945 01:24:42,640 --> 01:24:47,720 THAT YOU REFERRED TO? 1946 01:24:47,720 --> 01:24:50,040 >> SO YES AND NO. 1947 01:24:50,040 --> 01:24:53,000 HAVING WORKED ON A LOT OF DATA I 1948 01:24:53,000 --> 01:24:55,800 WILL SAY THAT THE U.S. IS 1949 01:24:55,800 --> 01:24:59,880 ACTUALLY A DATA POOL COUNTRY 1950 01:24:59,880 --> 01:25:04,640 COMPARED TO WHAT WE SEE IN 1951 01:25:04,640 --> 01:25:06,080 EUROPE. 1952 01:25:06,080 --> 01:25:08,480 VERY DETAILED DATA AND THE 1953 01:25:08,480 --> 01:25:11,360 ABILITY TO RUN THESE COHORTS OF 1954 01:25:11,360 --> 01:25:13,960 FIFA THAT ARE FOLLOWED CLOSELY. 1955 01:25:13,960 --> 01:25:16,840 PERHAPS SOMEHOW WE DON'T SEEM TO 1956 01:25:16,840 --> 01:25:17,640 HAVE IN THE U.S. 1957 01:25:17,640 --> 01:25:19,600 IT'S A COMPLICATED SYSTEM IN THE 1958 01:25:19,600 --> 01:25:21,040 U.S. 1959 01:25:21,040 --> 01:25:22,920 BUT WE CAN FIND VERY DETAILED 1960 01:25:22,920 --> 01:25:30,440 AND GOOD DAT DATE -- DATA 1961 01:25:30,440 --> 01:25:31,880 [ INDISCERNIBLE ] 1962 01:25:31,880 --> 01:25:36,080 WHERE DATA IS MUCH FASTER AND 1963 01:25:36,080 --> 01:25:39,240 THE WAY TO TRY TO USE THIS IS TO 1964 01:25:39,240 --> 01:25:41,680 USE MODELS FROM NEIGHBORING 1965 01:25:41,680 --> 01:25:44,760 COUNTRY OR TO DO SCENARIOS. 1966 01:25:44,760 --> 01:25:47,880 IF MY PARAMETER IS THIS OR THAT 1967 01:25:47,880 --> 01:25:50,400 WOULD THAT CHANGE MY 1968 01:25:50,400 --> 01:25:50,720 PROJECITONSES? 1969 01:25:50,720 --> 01:25:53,360 THERE IS A WAY TO HANDLE THE 1970 01:25:53,360 --> 01:25:55,280 UNCERTAINTY OF THE DATA 1971 01:25:55,280 --> 01:26:01,080 >> A QUESTION ROGER, WHAT IS THE 1972 01:26:01,080 --> 01:26:03,200 INVOLVEMENT OF FOGARTY WITH 1973 01:26:03,200 --> 01:26:05,760 RESPECT TO THE COVID PROBLEM IN 1974 01:26:05,760 --> 01:26:10,240 LATIN AMERICA? 1975 01:26:10,240 --> 01:26:13,280 >> LATIN AMERICA HAS BEEN IN 1976 01:26:13,280 --> 01:26:14,920 SOME WAYS SPECIAL. 1977 01:26:14,920 --> 01:26:16,760 BECAUSE THEIR HIGH RATES OF 1978 01:26:16,760 --> 01:26:18,920 VACCINATION. 1979 01:26:18,920 --> 01:26:21,760 FOR COVID. 1980 01:26:21,760 --> 01:26:24,600 SO WE HAVE HAD LIMITED 1981 01:26:24,600 --> 01:26:26,640 INVOLVEMENT IN LATIN AMERICA 1982 01:26:26,640 --> 01:26:28,280 BECAUSE THE SETTING IN AFRICA IS 1983 01:26:28,280 --> 01:26:30,800 SO MUCH DIFFERENT AND SO MUCH 1984 01:26:30,800 --> 01:26:33,000 UNDER RESOURCED. 1985 01:26:33,000 --> 01:26:35,560 SO I CANNOT GIVE YOU A FULL 1986 01:26:35,560 --> 01:26:37,840 UPDATE WITHOUT GOING TO OUR 1987 01:26:37,840 --> 01:26:38,640 RECORDS. 1988 01:26:38,640 --> 01:26:42,040 WE HAVE GRANTS IN LATIN AMERICA 1989 01:26:42,040 --> 01:26:44,680 BUT NOT AS MANY AS WE HAVE IN 1990 01:26:44,680 --> 01:26:46,240 AFRICA AND LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES. 1991 01:26:46,240 --> 01:26:48,480 7 1992 01:26:48,480 --> 01:26:51,840 >> SO IS THAT TRUE FOR MEXICO AS 1993 01:26:51,840 --> 01:26:53,240 WELL? 1994 01:26:53,240 --> 01:26:56,160 >> MEXICO HAS DONE NICE WORK 1995 01:26:56,160 --> 01:26:59,160 WITH AND HAS GOOD EPIDEMIOLOGY. 1996 01:26:59,160 --> 01:27:02,280 AND HAS DONE NICE WORK WITH 1997 01:27:02,280 --> 01:27:07,640 COVID IN COLLABORATION WITH 1998 01:27:07,640 --> 01:27:09,280 CECIL'S GROUP IN MODELING. 1999 01:27:09,280 --> 01:27:15,080 78 2000 01:27:15,080 --> 01:27:17,240 >> WHAT IS THE CURRENT STATUS OF 2001 01:27:17,240 --> 01:27:18,320 PET FAR. 2002 01:27:18,320 --> 01:27:24,680 IS IT STILL ACTIVE IN AFRICA OR 2003 01:27:24,680 --> 01:27:28,000 IS ITS FUNDING CONTINUING? 2004 01:27:28,000 --> 01:27:29,240 >> FUNDING IS CONTINUING. 2005 01:27:29,240 --> 01:27:31,720 THE PRISON IS NOT YET A SIGNED A 2006 01:27:31,720 --> 01:27:34,480 NEW DIRECTOR BUT JOHN THE HEAD 2007 01:27:34,480 --> 01:27:42,640 OF THE AFRICAN CDC HAS BEEN 2008 01:27:42,640 --> 01:27:44,640 OFFERED THE POSITION BUT IT 2009 01:27:44,640 --> 01:27:45,640 REQUIRES SENATE CLEARANCE. 2010 01:27:45,640 --> 01:27:47,840 SO, THAT IS UP IN THE AIR RIGHT 2011 01:27:47,840 --> 01:27:48,040 NOW. 2012 01:27:48,040 --> 01:27:50,240 THERE IS A POSITION THAT WILL BE 2013 01:27:50,240 --> 01:27:51,440 FILLED AND THE PROGRAM WILL BE 2014 01:27:51,440 --> 01:27:52,280 CONTINUING. 2015 01:27:52,280 --> 01:27:54,720 THE ADDITIONAL QUESTION IS 2016 01:27:54,720 --> 01:27:56,400 WHETHER THERE WILL BE A 2017 01:27:56,400 --> 01:27:58,800 BROADENING OF MANDATE TO INCLUDE 2018 01:27:58,800 --> 01:28:02,640 COVID ACTIVITIES AS WELL AS HIV. 2019 01:28:02,640 --> 01:28:04,920 AND IT'S REMARKABLE TO US THAT 2020 01:28:04,920 --> 01:28:08,240 HAVING INVESTED FOR SO LONG IN 2021 01:28:08,240 --> 01:28:09,880 HIV RESEARCH IN MANY COUNTRIES 2022 01:28:09,880 --> 01:28:11,760 THAT THOSE PEOPLE WHO HAVE THAT 2023 01:28:11,760 --> 01:28:14,640 EXPERIENCE IN TRAINING AND 2024 01:28:14,640 --> 01:28:17,600 HISTORY IN RESEARCH HAVE BEEN SO 2025 01:28:17,600 --> 01:28:20,800 READY TO ADAPT TO WORKING NOW 2026 01:28:20,800 --> 01:28:24,080 WITH ANOTHER PANDEMIC AND TO 2027 01:28:24,080 --> 01:28:25,160 ASSUME THOSE LEADERSHIP 2028 01:28:25,160 --> 01:28:25,640 POSITIONS. 2029 01:28:25,640 --> 01:28:28,840 ANYTHING THAT WE DO IN CAPACITY 2030 01:28:28,840 --> 01:28:31,800 BUILDING FOR COVID WILL HAVE 2031 01:28:31,800 --> 01:28:36,880 RETURNS IN THE FUTURE. 2032 01:28:36,880 --> 01:28:38,240 >> VALERIE ASKED WOULD YOU SAY 2033 01:28:38,240 --> 01:28:40,200 THAT THE UNITED STATES HAS THE 2034 01:28:40,200 --> 01:28:43,160 RESPONSIBILITY OF SHARING 2035 01:28:43,160 --> 01:28:46,440 VACCINE PATENTS AND INCREASING 2036 01:28:46,440 --> 01:28:49,560 ACCESSIBILITY OF VACCINATIONS 2037 01:28:49,560 --> 01:28:52,040 UNTIL AFRICA IS UP AND RUNNING 2038 01:28:52,040 --> 01:28:56,720 ON ITS OWN? 2039 01:28:56,720 --> 01:29:00,040 >> THAT IS A QUESTION THAT IS 2040 01:29:00,040 --> 01:29:01,160 CURRENTLY UNDER DISCUSSION. 2041 01:29:01,160 --> 01:29:04,080 I THINK BIG PHARMA FEELS THAT 2042 01:29:04,080 --> 01:29:07,160 THEY CAN TURN UP THE NOTCH AND 2043 01:29:07,160 --> 01:29:09,000 PRODUCE MORE VACCINES. 2044 01:29:09,000 --> 01:29:12,520 THE EVIDENCE IS THAT SO FAR VERY 2045 01:29:12,520 --> 01:29:15,760 FEW AS YOU SAW LESS THAN 8% OF 2046 01:29:15,760 --> 01:29:18,040 THE VACCINES PRODUCED HAVE GONE 2047 01:29:18,040 --> 01:29:20,240 TO AFRICA. 2048 01:29:20,240 --> 01:29:22,880 AND EVEN COMPANIES LIKE MODENA 2049 01:29:22,880 --> 01:29:25,880 HAVE BEEN SLOW TO EMBRACE A 2050 01:29:25,880 --> 01:29:27,400 GLOBAL AGENDA. 2051 01:29:27,400 --> 01:29:29,840 SO THAT IS ONE OF THE REASONS 2052 01:29:29,840 --> 01:29:32,800 WHY AFRICANS WANT TO DEVELOP A 2053 01:29:32,800 --> 01:29:33,800 MANUFACTURING CAPACITY. 2054 01:29:33,800 --> 01:29:38,840 SOME OF THAT WILL BE WITH DECK 2055 01:29:38,840 --> 01:29:39,320 TRANSFER. 2056 01:29:39,320 --> 01:29:45,240 THERE IS DISCUSSION UNDERWAY. 2057 01:29:45,240 --> 01:29:46,800 FOR RESEARCH INSTITUTE THAT CAN 2058 01:29:46,800 --> 01:29:48,520 WORK WITH NEW VACCINES THAT 2059 01:29:48,520 --> 01:29:49,920 MIGHT BE OF PARTICULAR INTEREST 2060 01:29:49,920 --> 01:29:51,760 IN AFRICA SO I THINK WE HAVE A 2061 01:29:51,760 --> 01:29:53,880 LONG WAY TO GO THERE BUT 2062 01:29:53,880 --> 01:29:56,320 SHORT-TERM THE FACT THAT WE'VE 2063 01:29:56,320 --> 01:29:58,560 GOTTEN 9 BILLION DOSES OF 2064 01:29:58,560 --> 01:30:00,200 VACCINE OUT IN THE PAST YEAR 2065 01:30:00,200 --> 01:30:02,640 WITH NEW PRODUCTION COMING 2066 01:30:02,640 --> 01:30:06,320 ON-BOARD IN INDIA AND IN THE 2067 01:30:06,320 --> 01:30:08,760 UNITED STATES AND THAT MEANS 2068 01:30:08,760 --> 01:30:10,840 THERE WILL BE A GOOD SUPPLY OF 2069 01:30:10,840 --> 01:30:12,600 VACCINES FOR THE NEXT TWO OR 2070 01:30:12,600 --> 01:30:16,960 THREE YEARS. 2071 01:30:16,960 --> 01:30:19,640 >> CHRIS ASKED HOW ARE THE 2072 01:30:19,640 --> 01:30:21,640 CROWDED POOR CITIES SUCH AS 2073 01:30:21,640 --> 01:30:24,640 THOSE IN INDIA, PAKISTAN 2074 01:30:24,640 --> 01:30:26,040 RELATIVELY SPARED WHEN THEY HAVE 2075 01:30:26,040 --> 01:30:27,600 NO VACCINES? 2076 01:30:27,600 --> 01:30:29,400 I KNOW THERE HAVE BEEN BAD DAYS 2077 01:30:29,400 --> 01:30:32,800 IN INDIA BUT WHY IS THE DEATH 2078 01:30:32,800 --> 01:30:34,880 RATE IN THE UNITED STATES WITH 2079 01:30:34,880 --> 01:30:37,880 ITS 70% VACCINATION HIGHER THAN 2080 01:30:37,880 --> 01:30:42,360 IN COUNTRIES WITH 5% TO 10% 2081 01:30:42,360 --> 01:30:44,200 VACCINATION? 2082 01:30:44,200 --> 01:30:46,960 >> AT LEAST I DON'T KNOW IN 2083 01:30:46,960 --> 01:30:52,040 INDIA EXACTLY BUT IN AFRICA THE 2084 01:30:52,040 --> 01:30:53,640 AGE DISTRIBUTION IS SUCH THAT 2085 01:30:53,640 --> 01:30:55,920 THERE ARE FEWER OLDER PEOPLE AND 2086 01:30:55,920 --> 01:30:58,120 THOSE ARE THE PEOPLE MOST LIKELY 2087 01:30:58,120 --> 01:30:59,480 TO DIE FROM COVID. 2088 01:30:59,480 --> 01:31:02,040 SO THE YOUNGER THE HEALTHIER YOU 2089 01:31:02,040 --> 01:31:04,240 ARE THE LESS LIKELY YOU ARE OF 2090 01:31:04,240 --> 01:31:05,000 DYING. 2091 01:31:05,000 --> 01:31:07,320 SO THAT MAY EXPLAIN SOME OF IT. 2092 01:31:07,320 --> 01:31:10,600 ALSO THE INDIANS HAVE BEEN 2093 01:31:10,600 --> 01:31:13,440 EXTRAORDINARY WHILE THEY MISSED 2094 01:31:13,440 --> 01:31:16,920 THE FIRST PANDEMIC OR THE% PEAK 2095 01:31:16,920 --> 01:31:19,040 THE SECOND PEAK WAS TERRIBLE. 2096 01:31:19,040 --> 01:31:21,280 DESPITE THE FACT THAT THEY MADE 2097 01:31:21,280 --> 01:31:24,720 LOTS OF VACCINES. 2098 01:31:24,720 --> 01:31:27,480 MODI REQUEST THAT THE VACCINE 2099 01:31:27,480 --> 01:31:29,440 COMPANIES IN INDIA NOT EXPORT 2100 01:31:29,440 --> 01:31:32,280 THEIR VACCINES UNTIL THE INDIAN 2101 01:31:32,280 --> 01:31:33,960 POPULATION WAS IMMUNIZED AND 2102 01:31:33,960 --> 01:31:35,760 THAT CHANGED IMMUNIZATION 2103 01:31:35,760 --> 01:31:36,920 COVERAGE. 2104 01:31:36,920 --> 01:31:40,040 INDIA WAS A DARKER PINK BUT NOT 2105 01:31:40,040 --> 01:31:43,440 A RED SO THE COVERAGE IS -- THEY 2106 01:31:43,440 --> 01:31:46,320 ARE IMMUNIZING SEVERAL MILLION 2107 01:31:46,320 --> 01:31:47,640 PEOPLE A DAY. 2108 01:31:47,640 --> 01:31:55,360 IT IS EXTRAORDINARY. 2109 01:31:55,360 --> 01:31:57,040 >> DAN ASKS WHETHER THERE IS 2110 01:31:57,040 --> 01:31:59,640 SOME CONJECTURE REGARDING THE 2111 01:31:59,640 --> 01:32:01,880 POSSIBLE EVOLUTION OF COVID-19 2112 01:32:01,880 --> 01:32:06,040 IN THE SETTING OF INDIVIDUALS 2113 01:32:06,040 --> 01:32:08,600 WITH INCOMPLETELY TREATED HIV AS 2114 01:32:08,600 --> 01:32:12,440 IS SEEN IN SOME AREAS OF SUB 2115 01:32:12,440 --> 01:32:15,440 SAHARAN AFRICA HAS THE MODELING 2116 01:32:15,440 --> 01:32:17,440 PROVIDED ANY INSIGHTS ON THESE 2117 01:32:17,440 --> 01:32:18,200 RELATIONSHIPS? 2118 01:32:18,200 --> 01:32:20,280 >> LET ME START WITH THAT AND 2119 01:32:20,280 --> 01:32:23,160 THEN I ASK CECIL. 2120 01:32:23,160 --> 01:32:25,320 WHAT IS INTERESTING IN THIS 2121 01:32:25,320 --> 01:32:27,160 OMICRON STRAIN IS IT WAS FIRST 2122 01:32:27,160 --> 01:32:29,560 SEEN QUITE A WHILE AGO AND THEN 2123 01:32:29,560 --> 01:32:31,440 THERE IS NO EVOLUTION OF THIS 2124 01:32:31,440 --> 01:32:33,440 STRAIN UNTIL JUST RECENTLY UNTIL 2125 01:32:33,440 --> 01:32:34,040 NOVEMBER. 2126 01:32:34,040 --> 01:32:35,040 A FLAT LINE. 2127 01:32:35,040 --> 01:32:37,480 SO YOU HAVE A VIRUS THAT HAS NOT 2128 01:32:37,480 --> 01:32:40,640 CHANGED FOR A YEAR AND A HALF. 2129 01:32:40,640 --> 01:32:44,040 HOW COULD THAT BE? 2130 01:32:44,040 --> 01:32:45,840 WHERE CAN IT HIDE? 2131 01:32:45,840 --> 01:32:49,720 AND ONE OF THE HYPOTHESIS IS 2132 01:32:49,720 --> 01:32:53,600 SOMEONE WHO WAS IMMUNO 2133 01:32:53,600 --> 01:32:58,120 COMPROMISED WHO CARRIED THAT 2134 01:32:58,120 --> 01:32:59,640 TRAIN FOR THE DURATION. 2135 01:32:59,640 --> 01:33:02,000 IT IS AN INTERESTING 2136 01:33:02,000 --> 01:33:03,160 SPECULATION. 2137 01:33:03,160 --> 01:33:06,320 ANY OTHER INSIGHTS TO THIS, 2138 01:33:06,320 --> 01:33:06,880 CECIL? 2139 01:33:06,880 --> 01:33:10,360 >> THAT IS THE PRIMARY -- THERE 2140 01:33:10,360 --> 01:33:16,040 IS ALSO A SECOND -- PRESUMABLY 2141 01:33:16,040 --> 01:33:18,640 OF THAT SAME PATIENT. 2142 01:33:18,640 --> 01:33:19,480 [ INDISCERNIBLE ] 2143 01:33:19,480 --> 01:33:22,080 AND THE MODELING THAT ALLOWS YOU 2144 01:33:22,080 --> 01:33:24,400 TO UNDERSTAND THE RELATIONSHIP. 2145 01:33:24,400 --> 01:33:27,400 IT'S NOT THE TRANSMISSION THAT 2146 01:33:27,400 --> 01:33:29,880 WE TALKED ABOUT TODAY. 2147 01:33:29,880 --> 01:33:32,840 THERE IS SOME EVOLUTIONARY WORK 2148 01:33:32,840 --> 01:33:35,000 BEING DONE AT THE UNIVERSITY OF 2149 01:33:35,000 --> 01:33:36,240 WASHINGTON ON THIS AND THIS IS 2150 01:33:36,240 --> 01:33:38,800 ALSO SOMETHING THAT WE SEE IN 2151 01:33:38,800 --> 01:33:42,240 THE FLU WHERE PEOPLE WHO ARE 2152 01:33:42,240 --> 01:33:46,120 IMMUNO COMPROMISED GENERATE 2153 01:33:46,120 --> 01:33:49,120 STRAINS THAT ARE SEEN IN THE 2154 01:33:49,120 --> 01:33:51,440 POPULATION. 2155 01:33:51,440 --> 01:33:57,520 [ INDISCERNIBLE ] 2156 01:33:57,520 --> 01:34:00,520 >> THE QUESTION ASKED BY -- HOW 2157 01:34:00,520 --> 01:34:02,760 DO YOU JUSTIFY THE WIDE 2158 01:34:02,760 --> 01:34:05,280 AVAILABILITY OF BOOSTERS IN THE 2159 01:34:05,280 --> 01:34:07,480 UNITED STATES WHILE LOW AND 2160 01:34:07,480 --> 01:34:10,560 MIDDLE INCOME COUNTRIES HAVE 2161 01:34:10,560 --> 01:34:12,720 VERY LOW VACCINATION COVERAGE 2162 01:34:12,720 --> 01:34:15,640 DUE TO LACK OF SUPPLY? 2163 01:34:15,640 --> 01:34:17,120 YOU WANT TO COMMENT ABOUT THE 2164 01:34:17,120 --> 01:34:18,920 QUESTION OF SUPPLY AND 2165 01:34:18,920 --> 01:34:21,080 AVAILABILITY? 2166 01:34:21,080 --> 01:34:22,240 REGARDING BOOSTERS PARTICULARLY 2167 01:34:22,240 --> 01:34:25,240 IN AFRICA? 2168 01:34:25,240 --> 01:34:27,120 OR LATIN AMERICA. 2169 01:34:27,120 --> 01:34:28,960 >> THAT IS REALLY WHERE THE 2170 01:34:28,960 --> 01:34:32,360 ISSUE OF EQUITY IN VACCINE 2171 01:34:32,360 --> 01:34:33,480 DISTRIBUTION COMES ABOUT. 2172 01:34:33,480 --> 01:34:36,400 AND I THINK MOST RECENTLY AS 2173 01:34:36,400 --> 01:34:39,840 SUPPLY HAS GOTTEN GREATER WE CAN 2174 01:34:39,840 --> 01:34:43,680 BE MORE GENEROUS IN THE SUPPLIES 2175 01:34:43,680 --> 01:34:46,200 PRESENTED TO THE CO-VAX 2176 01:34:46,200 --> 01:34:47,240 FACILITY. 2177 01:34:47,240 --> 01:34:49,240 THE GROUP THAT IS RECEIVING 2178 01:34:49,240 --> 01:34:51,120 VACCINES AND DONATIONS FROM 2179 01:34:51,120 --> 01:34:54,280 MULTIPLE COUNTRIES WITH THE IDEA 2180 01:34:54,280 --> 01:34:57,240 THAT THIS WOULD GO OUT TO AFRICA 2181 01:34:57,240 --> 01:34:59,560 AND LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES TO 2182 01:34:59,560 --> 01:35:01,760 TARGET 20% OF THE POPULATION WHO 2183 01:35:01,760 --> 01:35:03,160 ARE AT HIGHEST RISK. 2184 01:35:03,160 --> 01:35:05,360 THE ELDERLY AND HEALTH CARE 2185 01:35:05,360 --> 01:35:06,840 WORKERS. 2186 01:35:06,840 --> 01:35:08,800 THAT HAS NOT HAPPENED YET. 2187 01:35:08,800 --> 01:35:11,560 COUNTRIES MAY MAKE VACCINE ARE 2188 01:35:11,560 --> 01:35:13,840 HARD PReSED TO GIVE UP THEIR 2189 01:35:13,840 --> 01:35:17,880 VACCINES UNTIL THEIR OWN 2190 01:35:17,880 --> 01:35:19,480 POPULATIONS HAVE BEEN FULLY 2191 01:35:19,480 --> 01:35:22,520 IMMUNIZED BUT NOW THAT WE HAVE A 2192 01:35:22,520 --> 01:35:24,800 SURPLUS IN THE U.S. WE'RE 2193 01:35:24,800 --> 01:35:25,760 CONTRIBUTING MORE TO THE 2194 01:35:25,760 --> 01:35:26,120 CONTINENT. 2195 01:35:26,120 --> 01:35:28,120 ONE OF THE PROBLEMS IS THE 2196 01:35:28,120 --> 01:35:30,840 INABILITY TO HAVE THE 2197 01:35:30,840 --> 01:35:33,280 REFRIGERATION FOR THE LOW 2198 01:35:33,280 --> 01:35:35,640 TEMPERATURE PFIZER VACCINE. 2199 01:35:35,640 --> 01:35:39,280 VACCINES THAT ARE SUITABLE AT 2200 01:35:39,280 --> 01:35:41,600 REFRIGERATED TEMPERATURES ARE 2201 01:35:41,600 --> 01:35:43,800 MUCH MORE SUCCESSFUL AND SINGLE 2202 01:35:43,800 --> 01:35:46,000 DOSE VACCINES WOULD BE OPTIMAL 2203 01:35:46,000 --> 01:35:47,640 IF THEY DIDN'T NEED TO BE 2204 01:35:47,640 --> 01:35:51,560 BOOSTED. 2205 01:35:51,560 --> 01:35:55,160 >> WE HAVE AN IMPORTANT QUESTION 2206 01:35:55,160 --> 01:35:58,840 FROM A PRIMARY CARE PHYSICIAN. 2207 01:35:58,840 --> 01:36:02,360 HOW DO I DECIDE WHETHER TO 2208 01:36:02,360 --> 01:36:06,400 RECOMMEND ANTIVIRAL VERSUS 2209 01:36:06,400 --> 01:36:09,400 MONOCLONAL THERAPY IN THIS TIME 2210 01:36:09,400 --> 01:36:10,720 OF OMICRON. 2211 01:36:10,720 --> 01:36:14,040 WOULD A STANDARD PCR 2212 01:36:14,040 --> 01:36:15,640 DIFFERENTIATE OMICRON FROM 2213 01:36:15,640 --> 01:36:16,040 DELTA? 2214 01:36:16,040 --> 01:36:22,000 CAN YOU COMMENT ABOUT THAT? 2215 01:36:22,000 --> 01:36:26,120 >> THE -- RIGHT NOW THAT IS A 2216 01:36:26,120 --> 01:36:27,640 DIFFICULT DECISION. 2217 01:36:27,640 --> 01:36:31,040 IF SOMEONE HAS AN INFECTION AND 2218 01:36:31,040 --> 01:36:38,920 THEY AR IMMUNO COMPROMISED -- 2219 01:36:38,920 --> 01:36:42,120 WHETHER THERE IS A SUITABLE 2220 01:36:42,120 --> 01:36:45,200 MONOCLONAL FOR THAT STRAIN OR 2221 01:36:45,200 --> 01:36:48,880 WHETHER REMDESIVIR AND THE 2222 01:36:48,880 --> 01:36:51,560 OTHERS ARE MORE APPROPRIATE BUT 2223 01:36:51,560 --> 01:36:54,240 I'M NOT A CLINICIAN. 2224 01:36:54,240 --> 01:36:56,960 >> WE'LL FORWARD THAT TO TONY 2225 01:36:56,960 --> 01:37:00,880 AND HAVE HIM RESPOND. 2226 01:37:00,880 --> 01:37:04,560 >> AMELIA ASKS THAT YOU 2227 01:37:04,560 --> 01:37:08,040 PREDICTED 34 DAYS OF OMICRON 2228 01:37:08,040 --> 01:37:09,920 OUTBREAK IN SOUTH AFRICA THE 2229 01:37:09,920 --> 01:37:11,280 PEAK HAS PASSED. 2230 01:37:11,280 --> 01:37:13,480 DOES IT APPEAR THAT YOUR 2231 01:37:13,480 --> 01:37:20,440 PREDICTIONS WERE VERY CLOSE? 2232 01:37:20,440 --> 01:37:21,040 >> YES. 2233 01:37:21,040 --> 01:37:24,640 THE EPIDEMIC IS IS NOT OVER YET. 2234 01:37:24,640 --> 01:37:27,960 IT IS ON ITS WAY DOWN AS HAS 2235 01:37:27,960 --> 01:37:30,920 BEEN MENTIONED BUT I THINK WE'RE 2236 01:37:30,920 --> 01:37:33,120 GOING TO BE CLOSE. 2237 01:37:33,120 --> 01:37:34,640 >> OKAY. 2238 01:37:34,640 --> 01:37:37,360 SO WE ANXIOUSLY WILL SEE AND 2239 01:37:37,360 --> 01:37:38,640 HOPE THAT THINGS WILL 2240 01:37:38,640 --> 01:37:46,440 FOLLOW-THROUGH. 2241 01:37:46,440 --> 01:37:52,120 A COUPLE OF INQUIRIES AS TO 2242 01:37:52,120 --> 01:37:58,720 WHETHER THERE IS -- WHETHER 2243 01:37:58,720 --> 01:38:04,040 FOGARTY -- HOW DOES FOGARTY 2244 01:38:04,040 --> 01:38:09,920 APPROACH VACCINE EQUITY ISSUES? 2245 01:38:09,920 --> 01:38:11,440 AND YOUR PROGRAMS. 2246 01:38:11,440 --> 01:38:14,440 IS THERE A SPECIAL APPROACH TO 2247 01:38:14,440 --> 01:38:16,400 THAT IMPORTANT PROBLEM? 2248 01:38:16,400 --> 01:38:22,880 OR I IS THIS IS A LOCAL PROBLEM 2249 01:38:22,880 --> 01:38:24,240 >> EQUITY IS QUITE SPECIFIC. 2250 01:38:24,240 --> 01:38:26,800 WE'RE INTERESTED IN TRAINING 2251 01:38:26,800 --> 01:38:29,240 LOCAL PEOPLE. 2252 01:38:29,240 --> 01:38:31,760 TO PROVIDE LOCAL ANSWERS AND TO 2253 01:38:31,760 --> 01:38:33,560 MAKE LOCAL DECISIONS. 2254 01:38:33,560 --> 01:38:36,240 SO WE'VE TRAINED PEOPLE FOR 2255 01:38:36,240 --> 01:38:38,520 INSTANCE LIKE -- SLIM WHO'S HEAD 2256 01:38:38,520 --> 01:38:40,880 OF THE COVID ADVISORY COMMITTEE 2257 01:38:40,880 --> 01:38:43,560 FOR THE MINISTRY OF HEALTH IN 2258 01:38:43,560 --> 01:38:44,040 SOUTH AFRICA. 2259 01:38:44,040 --> 01:38:45,440 THIS IS A DECISION THAT THEY 2260 01:38:45,440 --> 01:38:47,320 HAVE TO MAKE FOR THEIR OWN 2261 01:38:47,320 --> 01:38:51,200 PEOPLE. 2262 01:38:51,200 --> 01:38:52,440 -- BUT OUR CONTRIBUTION IS TO 2263 01:38:52,440 --> 01:38:53,680 HELP TRAIN LEADERS TO ADDRESS 2264 01:38:53,680 --> 01:38:54,800 THESE. 2265 01:38:54,800 --> 01:38:56,800 SOMETHING THAT WE'RE ALL 2266 01:38:56,800 --> 01:38:59,480 CONCERNED WITH WHEN WE SEE THE 2267 01:38:59,480 --> 01:39:01,800 INEQUITY AND HOW WE CAN ADDRESS 2268 01:39:01,800 --> 01:39:02,280 THAT. 2269 01:39:02,280 --> 01:39:06,240 AN ISSUE THAT WE HAVE AT HOME AS 2270 01:39:06,240 --> 01:39:06,840 WELL. 2271 01:39:06,840 --> 01:39:09,040 GETTING VACCINES TO THE POOREST 2272 01:39:09,040 --> 01:39:10,760 COMMUNITIES. 2273 01:39:10,760 --> 01:39:13,680 >> ROGER IN YOUR OPINION WHAT 2274 01:39:13,680 --> 01:39:17,560 COUNTRY OR COUNTRIES HAVE HAD 2275 01:39:17,560 --> 01:39:19,800 THE MOST EFFECTIVE PUBLIC HEALTH 2276 01:39:19,800 --> 01:39:22,440 RESPONSE AGAINST THE COVID 2277 01:39:22,440 --> 01:39:24,480 PANDEMIC AND WHAT LESSONS COULD 2278 01:39:24,480 --> 01:39:27,800 WE LEARN AS A GLOBAL 2279 01:39:27,800 --> 01:39:30,400 COMMUNITY-BASED UPON THOSE 2280 01:39:30,400 --> 01:39:33,000 INDIVIDUAL COUNTRY EXPERIENCES? 2281 01:39:33,000 --> 01:39:35,440 >> WELL FOR HIGH INCOME 2282 01:39:35,440 --> 01:39:38,640 COUNTRIES I WAS ON THE PHONE 2283 01:39:38,640 --> 01:39:41,080 YESTERDAY WITH A SENIOR 2284 01:39:41,080 --> 01:39:42,800 VIROLOGIST IN AUSTRALIA WHO SAID 2285 01:39:42,800 --> 01:39:44,880 THEY'VE DONE WELL IN CONTROLLING 2286 01:39:44,880 --> 01:39:45,520 THE PANDEMIC. 2287 01:39:45,520 --> 01:39:47,640 THEY HAVE HIGH LEVELS OF 2288 01:39:47,640 --> 01:39:48,000 IMMUNIZATION. 2289 01:39:48,000 --> 01:39:51,280 THEY HAVE VERY FEW DEATHS SO 2290 01:39:51,280 --> 01:39:53,000 THEY'VE DONE ALL OF THE RIGHT 2291 01:39:53,000 --> 01:39:55,280 THINGS. 2292 01:39:55,280 --> 01:39:58,120 AND I MUST SAY I WAS IMPRESSED 2293 01:39:58,120 --> 01:39:59,920 IN RWANDA. 2294 01:39:59,920 --> 01:40:02,560 A POOR COUNTRY WITH HOW MUCH 2295 01:40:02,560 --> 01:40:05,760 THEY'VE DONE FROM THE ONSET TO 2296 01:40:05,760 --> 01:40:07,680 NOT LET FOREIGNERS 2297 01:40:07,680 --> 01:40:10,960 >>> THE COUNTRY WITHOUT BEING 2298 01:40:10,960 --> 01:40:12,600 SCREENED AT THE BORDERS. 2299 01:40:12,600 --> 01:40:19,640 PUTTING MESS CA -- MASKING IN AND 2300 01:40:19,640 --> 01:40:20,560 SHUTTING DOWN SOCIAL DISTANCING. 2301 01:40:20,560 --> 01:40:25,160 7 AND WHEN THEY PREPARED TO HAVE 2302 01:40:25,160 --> 01:40:27,800 VACCINES THEY WENT RIGHT INTO 2303 01:40:27,800 --> 01:40:33,120 THE -- POPULATIONS AND THEY 2304 01:40:33,120 --> 01:40:35,640 COULD ABSORB AND USE THEM 2305 01:40:35,640 --> 01:40:36,400 IMMEDIATELY. 2306 01:40:36,400 --> 01:40:39,640 IT WAS QUITE A UNIQUE SITUATION 2307 01:40:39,640 --> 01:40:42,640 AND WITH A COUNTRY THAT IS 2308 01:40:42,640 --> 01:40:44,480 HIGHLY COMMITTED TO ITS PUBLIC 2309 01:40:44,480 --> 01:40:48,320 HEALTH SYSTEM. 2310 01:40:48,320 --> 01:40:50,200 >> IN AUSTRALIA I BELIEVE THAT 2311 01:40:50,200 --> 01:40:53,280 INDIVIDUALS HAVE BEEN PREVENTED 2312 01:40:53,280 --> 01:40:57,000 FROM MOVING FROM ONE STATE AREA 2313 01:40:57,000 --> 01:41:00,800 TO ANOTHER. 2314 01:41:00,800 --> 01:41:04,680 WHICH IN THE FACE OF LOW 2315 01:41:04,680 --> 01:41:06,960 INFECTION RATES LOW CLINICAL 2316 01:41:06,960 --> 01:41:09,680 INFECTION RATES AND DIFFERENT 2317 01:41:09,680 --> 01:41:11,800 COMMUNITIES IT CAN CAUSE QUITE 2318 01:41:11,800 --> 01:41:15,800 AN UPROAR. 2319 01:41:15,800 --> 01:41:18,520 THE AUSTRAILIAN PUBLIC -- DO YOU 2320 01:41:18,520 --> 01:41:23,040 HAVE ANY COMMENTS ABOUT HOW 2321 01:41:23,040 --> 01:41:26,080 POLICIES, HOW DO YOU BALANCE 2322 01:41:26,080 --> 01:41:32,040 WHAT INDIVIDUALS WANT TO DO AND 2323 01:41:32,040 --> 01:41:35,000 WHAT REGULATIONS REQUIRE THEM TO 2324 01:41:35,000 --> 01:41:35,400 DO? 2325 01:41:35,400 --> 01:41:38,240 IS IT POSSIBLE TO GO TOO FAR 2326 01:41:38,240 --> 01:41:40,080 WITH REGULATIONS? 2327 01:41:40,080 --> 01:41:42,600 >> WHEN WE'RE HAVING THE SAME 2328 01:41:42,600 --> 01:41:43,840 PROBLEM IN THE UNITED STATES OF 2329 01:41:43,840 --> 01:41:46,600 WHAT CAN WE MANDATE? 2330 01:41:46,600 --> 01:41:50,360 WE CAN MANDATE FEDERAL EMPLOYEES 2331 01:41:50,360 --> 01:41:53,760 AND EMPLOYEES OF COMPANIES MORE 2332 01:41:53,760 --> 01:41:56,560 THAN 100 TO BE IMMUNIZED AND TO 2333 01:41:56,560 --> 01:41:58,440 BE TAKEN CARE OF BUT WE CANNOT 2334 01:41:58,440 --> 01:41:59,760 MANDATE EVERYONE. 2335 01:41:59,760 --> 01:42:02,080 THAT IS A REAL CONTROVERSY. 2336 01:42:02,080 --> 01:42:05,160 IF WE HAD OUR WAY AS PUBLIC 2337 01:42:05,160 --> 01:42:08,840 HEALTH PHYSICIANS WE WOULD SAY 2338 01:42:08,840 --> 01:42:10,200 EVERYONE SHOULD WANT TO BE 2339 01:42:10,200 --> 01:42:12,320 VACCINATED SO WE WOULDN'T HAVE 2340 01:42:12,320 --> 01:42:13,560 TO MANDATE. 2341 01:42:13,560 --> 01:42:16,080 PEOPLE ARE HESITANT AND 2342 01:42:16,080 --> 01:42:19,640 UNCERTAIN AND IF YOU MANDATE IT 2343 01:42:19,640 --> 01:42:22,360 WILL ONLY THE BELIEF IS THAT IT 2344 01:42:22,360 --> 01:42:24,440 WILL ONLY LEAD TO A NEGATIVE 2345 01:42:24,440 --> 01:42:28,000 RESPONSE. 2346 01:42:28,000 --> 01:42:30,560 A RESPONSE THAT WE REALLY DON'T 2347 01:42:30,560 --> 01:42:30,960 WANT. 2348 01:42:30,960 --> 01:42:34,800 SITES HOW YOU LOOK AT PRIVATE 2349 01:42:34,800 --> 01:42:38,800 RIGHTS OR INDIVIDUAL RIGHTS AND 2350 01:42:38,800 --> 01:42:40,520 THAT IS ONE THAT WE HAVE NOT 2351 01:42:40,520 --> 01:42:41,120 SOLVED HERE IN THE UNITED 2352 01:42:41,120 --> 01:42:42,880 STATES. 2353 01:42:42,880 --> 01:42:44,720 >> WHEN DID THAT DEVELOP 2354 01:42:44,720 --> 01:42:45,600 HISTORICALLY IN THE UNITED 2355 01:42:45,600 --> 01:42:47,400 STATES? 2356 01:42:47,400 --> 01:42:50,400 I SEEM TO RECALL THAT THE PUBLIC 2357 01:42:50,400 --> 01:42:54,000 HEALTH RESPONSE FOR EXAMPLE TO 2358 01:42:54,000 --> 01:42:56,400 TYPHOID IF SOMEONE WAS A CARRIER 2359 01:42:56,400 --> 01:43:01,440 THEY COULD BE LITERALLY PUT AWAY 2360 01:43:01,440 --> 01:43:02,400 IN ISOLATION. 2361 01:43:02,400 --> 01:43:04,920 I BELIEVE DURING THE POLIO 2362 01:43:04,920 --> 01:43:08,720 EPIDEMIC THERE WERE MANDATES 2363 01:43:08,720 --> 01:43:10,960 WITHIN -- I'M NOT SURE IF THEY 2364 01:43:10,960 --> 01:43:12,680 WERE FEDERAL OR NOT. 2365 01:43:12,680 --> 01:43:14,960 BUT CHILDREN COULD NOT GO TO 2366 01:43:14,960 --> 01:43:16,600 SCHOOL IF THEY WERE NOT 2367 01:43:16,600 --> 01:43:17,120 VACCINATED. 2368 01:43:17,120 --> 01:43:18,400 ALL OF THAT. 2369 01:43:18,400 --> 01:43:20,400 WHEN DID IT CHANGE? 2370 01:43:20,400 --> 01:43:22,880 >> ONE THING THAT CHANGED WAS IN 2371 01:43:22,880 --> 01:43:30,000 THE CARTER ERA THE MANDATE TO BE 2372 01:43:30,000 --> 01:43:31,880 IMMUNIZED BEFORE CHILDREN WENT 2373 01:43:31,880 --> 01:43:33,720 TO SCHOOL WAS PUT IN PLACE. 2374 01:43:33,720 --> 01:43:38,400 THAT YOU USED TO BE ABLE TO OPT 2375 01:43:38,400 --> 01:43:39,520 OUT. 2376 01:43:39,520 --> 01:43:44,560 YOU WERE IN UNTIL YOU PROTESTED 2377 01:43:44,560 --> 01:43:48,720 BUT THAT LAW REALLY ALLOWED FOR 2378 01:43:48,720 --> 01:43:50,680 CONTROL OF MEASLES IN THE UNITED 2379 01:43:50,680 --> 01:43:52,080 STATES. 2380 01:43:52,080 --> 01:44:00,320 IT WAS FLUF -- INFLUENCAL AND 2381 01:44:00,320 --> 01:44:00,720 SUCCESSFUL. 2382 01:44:00,720 --> 01:44:04,040 NOW WE'RE ALL IMMUNIZED AGAINST 2383 01:44:04,040 --> 01:44:06,600 POLIO EXCEPT FOR A FEW. 2384 01:44:06,600 --> 01:44:10,360 AND WE'VE PERIODICALLY HAVE HAD 2385 01:44:10,360 --> 01:44:11,240 TINY OUTBREAKS. 2386 01:44:11,240 --> 01:44:16,160 I HAVE NOT HEARD OF ANY IN THE 2387 01:44:16,160 --> 01:44:17,800 RECENT PAST BUT THEY STILL WERE 2388 01:44:17,800 --> 01:44:25,000 A PROBLEM. 2389 01:44:25,000 --> 01:44:29,200 >> SO IF YOU WOULD ENGAGE IN A 2390 01:44:29,200 --> 01:44:31,000 LITTLE PERHAPS SPECULATION 2391 01:44:31,000 --> 01:44:36,360 CERTAINLY OPINION -- IN TODAY'S 2392 01:44:36,360 --> 01:44:39,840 MEDICAL POSSIBILITIES WE CAN 2393 01:44:39,840 --> 01:44:43,160 VACCINATE TO BASICALLY PREVENT 2394 01:44:43,160 --> 01:44:48,360 HELP -- HEPATITIS B VIRUS. 2395 01:44:48,360 --> 01:44:51,200 WE CAN TREAT HEPATITIS "C." WE 2396 01:44:51,200 --> 01:44:54,280 HAVE DRUGS THAT CONVERT HIV INTO 2397 01:44:54,280 --> 01:44:57,200 A CHRONIC LIVABLE DISEASE AND 2398 01:44:57,200 --> 01:44:59,480 WITH COVID WE SEEM TO HAVE 2399 01:44:59,480 --> 01:45:00,920 EVERYTHING IN THE WAY OF 2400 01:45:00,920 --> 01:45:01,880 PREVENTION, TREATMENT AND SO 2401 01:45:01,880 --> 01:45:05,600 FORTH. 2402 01:45:05,600 --> 01:45:08,200 BUT IN YOUR VIEW HOW DO WE GET 2403 01:45:08,200 --> 01:45:12,000 TO THE POINT WHERE ALL OF THESE 2404 01:45:12,000 --> 01:45:14,080 THINGS BECOME AVAILABLE TO 2405 01:45:14,080 --> 01:45:16,560 POPULATIONS RICH AND POOR AROUND 2406 01:45:16,560 --> 01:45:21,520 THE WORLD. 2407 01:45:21,520 --> 01:45:28,000 TO WHAT OBSERVES -- EXTENT DOES 2408 01:45:28,000 --> 01:45:29,480 THE SCIENTIFIC COMMUNITY HAVE TO 2409 01:45:29,480 --> 01:45:33,720 WORK WITH THE POLITICAL 2410 01:45:33,720 --> 01:45:34,560 REALITIES. 2411 01:45:34,560 --> 01:45:37,400 WHAT IS YOUR PERSONAL VIEW AS TO 2412 01:45:37,400 --> 01:45:39,400 WHAT DO YOU THINK THE FUTURE IS 2413 01:45:39,400 --> 01:45:42,520 GOING TO HOLD FOR MAKING THESE 2414 01:45:42,520 --> 01:45:45,920 THERAPIES TRULY AVAILABLE TO 2415 01:45:45,920 --> 01:45:48,920 EVERYBODY AT A COST THAT CAN BE 2416 01:45:48,920 --> 01:45:50,160 HANDLED? 2417 01:45:50,160 --> 01:45:53,360 IS THIS A DREAM OR IS THERE 2418 01:45:53,360 --> 01:45:58,200 REALLY A REASONABLE POSSIBILITY? 2419 01:45:58,200 --> 01:45:59,600 >> GREAT QUESTION. 2420 01:45:59,600 --> 01:46:01,840 WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE HIV 2421 01:46:01,840 --> 01:46:04,400 EXPERIENCE THOSE DRUGS THAT WERE 2422 01:46:04,400 --> 01:46:07,200 TENS OF THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS IN 2423 01:46:07,200 --> 01:46:13,440 THE U.S. 25 YEARS AGO ARE NOW 2424 01:46:13,440 --> 01:46:15,160 INEXPENSIVE, THEY ARE MADE IN 2425 01:46:15,160 --> 01:46:18,360 INDIA AT LOW COST AND NOT FOR 2426 01:46:18,360 --> 01:46:19,240 REIMPORTATION TO THE UNITED 2427 01:46:19,240 --> 01:46:20,280 STATES. 2428 01:46:20,280 --> 01:46:22,840 THERE HAS BEEN A SHARING OF 2429 01:46:22,840 --> 01:46:23,760 INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY SO THEY 2430 01:46:23,760 --> 01:46:25,680 COULD BE MADE OFFSHORE AT LOW 2431 01:46:25,680 --> 01:46:27,320 COST FOR THE DEVELOPING WORLD 2432 01:46:27,320 --> 01:46:30,120 AND THEY ARE SUPPLIED THROUGH 2433 01:46:30,120 --> 01:46:33,560 PET FAR FOR EXAMPLE. 2434 01:46:33,560 --> 01:46:37,000 WE DON'T UNDERSTAND THE 2435 01:46:37,000 --> 01:46:39,360 BEHAVIORAL -- THE BEHAVIOR OF 2436 01:46:39,360 --> 01:46:41,240 PEOPLE TAKING DRUGS. 2437 01:46:41,240 --> 01:46:43,160 PETER SMALL SAID THE BIGGEST 2438 01:46:43,160 --> 01:46:45,400 PROBLEM IN MEDICINE OF DRUG 2439 01:46:45,400 --> 01:46:47,200 ABUSE IS PEOPLE FAILING TO TAKE 2440 01:46:47,200 --> 01:46:48,560 THEIR DRUGS. 2441 01:46:48,560 --> 01:46:50,680 IF SOMEONE WERE TO TAKE THEIR 2442 01:46:50,680 --> 01:46:54,200 DRUGS ROUTINELY FOR HIV THEY 2443 01:46:54,200 --> 01:46:56,600 WOULD HAVE A CHRONIC DISEASE AND 2444 01:46:56,600 --> 01:46:58,640 LIVE AN ALMOST NORMAL LIFE. 2445 01:46:58,640 --> 01:47:00,840 YET SO MANY PEOPLE FOR REASONS 2446 01:47:00,840 --> 01:47:03,280 OF DEPRESSION, MENTAL HEALTH 2447 01:47:03,280 --> 01:47:06,400 PROBLEMS STOP TAKING THEIR DRUGS 2448 01:47:06,400 --> 01:47:07,920 AT DIFFERENT TIMES AND SET 2449 01:47:07,920 --> 01:47:08,640 THEMSELVES UP. 2450 01:47:08,640 --> 01:47:11,560 THERE IS A WHOLE AREA OF 2451 01:47:11,560 --> 01:47:13,840 BEHAVIORAL RESEARCH ABOUT TAKING 2452 01:47:13,840 --> 01:47:15,400 DRUGS. 2453 01:47:15,400 --> 01:47:16,920 WITH HEPATITIS "C" THERE ARE 2454 01:47:16,920 --> 01:47:18,520 COUNTRIES NOW THAT ARE IN THE 2455 01:47:18,520 --> 01:47:21,200 PROCESS OF TRYING TO HAVE A 2456 01:47:21,200 --> 01:47:23,960 ROLLOUT A SCREENING AND 2457 01:47:23,960 --> 01:47:24,360 TREATMENT. 2458 01:47:24,360 --> 01:47:27,640 AND THAT IS AVAILABLE NOW IN 2459 01:47:27,640 --> 01:47:32,240 MANY COUNTRIES OF THE ANTIVIRALS 2460 01:47:32,240 --> 01:47:33,800 OF DIFFERENT BRANDS ARE 2461 01:47:33,800 --> 01:47:36,600 AVAILABLE AT A LOW COST IN SOME 2462 01:47:36,600 --> 01:47:38,840 COUNTRIES AND THERE ARE NATIONAL 2463 01:47:38,840 --> 01:47:40,200 ROLLOUTS WITH SCREENING AND 2464 01:47:40,200 --> 01:47:41,160 TREATMENT. 2465 01:47:41,160 --> 01:47:44,160 SO I THINK THAT WE ALWAYS START 2466 01:47:44,160 --> 01:47:45,720 HERE IN THE UNITED STATES WITH 2467 01:47:45,720 --> 01:47:48,520 HIGH COST VACCINES AND DRUGS. 2468 01:47:48,520 --> 01:47:53,280 AND AFTER WE'VE SATURATED OUR 2469 01:47:53,280 --> 01:47:55,080 MARKET THERE IS A REAL EFFORT TO 2470 01:47:55,080 --> 01:47:55,800 MOVE ON. 2471 01:47:55,800 --> 01:47:59,200 I THINK THAT IS WHERE WHO HAS 2472 01:47:59,200 --> 01:48:01,320 DEVELOPED THIS INTERNATIONAL 2473 01:48:01,320 --> 01:48:04,240 PATENTS POOL TO ADDRESS THAT. 2474 01:48:04,240 --> 01:48:08,280 THERE ARE ECONOMIC ISSUES AND 2475 01:48:08,280 --> 01:48:09,400 BEHAVIORAL ISSUE ABOUT TAKING 2476 01:48:09,400 --> 01:48:11,400 THE DRUGS AND VACCINES WHEN YOU 2477 01:48:11,400 --> 01:48:12,200 HAVE THEM. 2478 01:48:12,200 --> 01:48:14,600 IT JUST TAKES TIME. 2479 01:48:14,600 --> 01:48:16,600 AND THAT IS A REAL CHALLENGE IN 2480 01:48:16,600 --> 01:48:17,200 GLOBAL HEALTH. 2481 01:48:17,200 --> 01:48:19,720 HOW DO WE DEAL WITH EXACTLY 2482 01:48:19,720 --> 01:48:22,560 THOSE ISSUES. 2483 01:48:22,560 --> 01:48:23,240 >> ALL RIGHT. 2484 01:48:23,240 --> 01:48:27,240 I WANT TO THANK YOU ON BEHALF OF 2485 01:48:27,240 --> 01:48:29,640 ALL OF THOSE LISTENING AROUND 2486 01:48:29,640 --> 01:48:33,280 THE WORLD FOR YOUR PRESENTATION 2487 01:48:33,280 --> 01:48:37,520 TO YOU AND YOUR COLLEAGUE AND 2488 01:48:37,520 --> 01:48:37,680 ALSO 2489 01:48:37,680 --> 01:48:42,200 [ INDISCERNIBLE ] 2490 01:48:42,200 --> 01:48:44,600 >> THANK YOU VERY MUCH. 2491 01:48:44,600 --> 01:48:50,040 THIS HAS BEEN A REAL -- PLEASURE 2492 01:48:50,040 --> 01:48:54,120 >> BEFORE WE GO OFF THE AIR NEXT 2493 01:48:54,120 --> 01:48:57,760 TUESDAY WE HAVE WHAT IS AN 2494 01:48:57,760 --> 01:48:59,800 EXTRAORDINARY OPPORTUNITY TO 2495 01:48:59,800 --> 01:49:03,560 DISCUSS ONE OF THE MOST EXCITING 2496 01:49:03,560 --> 01:49:05,600 DISCOVERIES IN MEDICINE PROBABLY 2497 01:49:05,600 --> 01:49:09,000 IN THE LAST 50 YEARS OR MORE. 2498 01:49:09,000 --> 01:49:14,960 AND IS THAT WAS THE DISCOVERY OF 2499 01:49:14,960 --> 01:49:19,080 HILOCOBACTOR AS THE AGENT IN 2500 01:49:19,080 --> 01:49:23,600 PEPTIC ULCER DISEASE. 2501 01:49:23,600 --> 01:49:28,040 SPEAKER WILL BE WITH US FROM 2502 01:49:28,040 --> 01:49:30,680 PERTH, AUSTRALIA AND MARTIN 2503 01:49:30,680 --> 01:49:34,960 BLAZER WHO HAS WORKED FURTHER ON 2504 01:49:34,960 --> 01:49:37,680 THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN 2505 01:49:37,680 --> 01:49:40,400 ORGANISMS LIKE THIS AND THE HOST 2506 01:49:40,400 --> 01:49:42,720 AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF CHRONIC 2507 01:49:42,720 --> 01:49:45,960 DISEASE INCLUDING CANCER WILL BE 2508 01:49:45,960 --> 01:49:48,040 WITH US TO BE THE SECOND 2509 01:49:48,040 --> 01:49:48,480 SPEAKER. 2510 01:49:48,480 --> 01:49:52,240 AND THE OFFICIAL TITLE IS THE 2511 01:49:52,240 --> 01:49:56,720 SPLIT PERSONALITY OF 2512 01:49:56,720 --> 01:49:57,400 HELEOBACTOR-PYORLI. 2513 01:49:57,400 --> 01:50:01,760 THANK YOU ALL AND WE'LL SEE 2514 01:50:01,760 --> 01:52:26,000 YOU NEXT WEEK.