>> WELCOME
EVERYONE, TO FOURTH WORKSHOP OF
THE ADVANTAGE PROJECT, YOU SEE
THE ACRONYM ON THE SLIDE.
WE'RE EXCITED TO WELCOME YOU TO
THIS SESSION ON BEHALF OF THE
NICHD LEADERSHIP AND IN
PARTICULAR THE BRANCH CHIEF OF
THE PEDIATRIC GROWTH AND
NUTRITION BRANCH DR. DREW BREMER
WHO IS NOT ABLE TO JOIN US TODAY
BUT WISHES YOU ALL THE BEST.
I WANT TO GIVE A SHOUT OUT TO
OUR PARTNERS AT NUTRITION AND
DIETETICS, ALISON STEIBER, CHIEF
SCIENCE OFFICER.
>> YES, HELLO, EVERYONE.
I WANT TO EXTEND MY WELCOME AS
WELL AND I WANT TO SAY HOW
GRATEFUL WE ARE TO BE PARTNERS
ON THIS PROJECT.
THIS IS A PROJECT THAT I THINK
IS GOING TO HAVE LONG-REACHING
IMPLICATIONS FOR OUR MEMBERSHIP
AT THE ACADEMY OF NUTRITION AND
DIETETICS, ALSO FOR MANY, MANY
OTHERS IN THE SPACE OF
NUTRITION.
I WANT TO SAY THAT I THINK THE
FIRST THREE WORKSHOPS WHICH WERE
OUTSTANDING REALLY LAID A
FABULOUS GROUNDWORK FOR US, BUT
IT'S THIS PARTICULAR WORKSHOP
AND FOLLOWING THAT WILL TAKE US
FORWARD INTO THE NEXT -- THE
FUTURE OF HOW WE THINK ABOUT
THIS NEXUS BETWEEN AGRICULTURE
AND DIET.
I'M EXCITED FOR THE
PRESENTATIONS TODAY.
THANK YOU.
>>THANKS, ALLISON.
AND A PARTICULAR SHOUT OUT TO
ALLISON'S TEAM, AS YOU LEARNED
IN THE PREVIOUS WORKSHOPS ALL
THESE WORKING GROUPS ARE LED BY
A SECRETARY TEAM WITH MEMBERS
FROM THE A&D TEAM, ALISON'S
TEAM, DR. HANDU HAS BEEN
INSTRUMENTAL IN PULLING THIS
TOGETHER.
WE HAVE LOGISTICS TEAM HERE
THAT'S SUPPORTING THIS EFFORT
TODAY, TWO PLATFORMS, FOR THOSE
LISTENING ON THE WEBINAR
PLATFORM FEEL FREE MAKE COMMENTS
THROUGH THE SYSTEM, IF YOU HAVE
QUESTIONS LET US KNOW.
OTHERWISE WE'LL BEGIN THE
PROJECT, THE WORKSHOP TODAY.
SO, LET'S GO TO THE NEXT SLIDE.
I WANT TO SPEND A COUPLE MINUTES
GOING OVER MOTIVES, OBJECTIVES,
FRAMEWORK AND OBJECTIVES FOR
THIS PROJECT.
STARTING WITH THIS SLIDE, A
RECOGNITION OF HOW WE PERCEIVE
OUR ROLE AT NICHD, NIH MORE
BROADLY, THE BALANCE BETWEEN
RESEARCH, BIOMEDICAL RESEARCH
AND TRANSLATION OF THAT
RESEARCH.
THE TRANSLATION IS NOT JUST
MAKING POLICIES.
WE DON'T MAKE POLICIES OR
GUIDANCE BUT WE DO TRANSLATE THE
EVIDENCE TO SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF INTERVENTIONS,
PROGRAMS, POLICIES, ET CETERA.
THAT'S ALSO PART OF OUR RESEARCH
AGENDA HERE.
SO THERE'S A BALANCE HERE.
IT'S ALSO A RECOGNITION OF OUR
ROLE AS PROVIDING TECHNICAL
SUPPORT TO THOSE AGENCIES AND
ORGANIZATIONS THAT ARE INVOLVED
IN SURVEILLANCE, EVIDENCE
GATHERING, TO SUPPORT PROGRAMS,
POLICIES, STANDARDS OF CARE.
NEXT SLIDE.
THESE ARE THREE CORE STATEMENTS
TO HIGHLIGHT RIGHT OFF THE TOP.
THE FIRST IS AN IMPORTANT
RECOGNITION THAT WE'RE NOT
MAKING GUIDELINES HERE.
THIS IS INTENDED TO REALLY FOCUS
ON THE SCIENCE AND SUPPORT THAT
SCIENTIFIC AGENDA, RESEARCH
AGENDA TO SUPPORT PROGRAMS AND
POLICIES, AND THAT TRANSLATIONAL
AGENDA.
NEXT SLIDE.
NEXT.
I WANT TO GO THROUGH SOME CORE
CONCEPTS DRIVING THIS PROJECT.
THE FIRST ONE IS A RECOGNITION
THAT IRRESPECTIVE OF POLICY
STANDARD OF CARE, WHATEVER IT
HAPPENS TO BE, WHEN YOU'RE
LOOKING AT RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN
DIET, NUTRITION, HEALTH, THREE
CORE BUCKETS WE FOCUS ON.
ONE IS THE HEALTH PRIORITIES
THAT WE'RE INTERESTED IN, MOST
ARE REALLY DESIGNED TO PROMOTE
HEALTH AND PREVENT DISEASE.
WHAT ARE THE PRIORITY HEALTH
OUTCOMES OF INTEREST, WHAT DO WE
KNOW ABOUT THEM?
THE SECOND PIECE IS WHAT ARE THE
POPULATIONS OF INTEREST
CONSUMING AND WHY?
AND THE THIRD, GROWING IMPORTANT
COMPONENT OF THIS, IS WHAT IS
THE CAPACITY OF THE FOOD SYSTEM
TO MEET THOSE NEEDS, DIETARY
NEEDS?
SO THAT RAISES THREE CORE
QUESTIONS.
IN THIS CASE, WHAT IS THE IMPACT
OF A CHANGING ENVIRONMENT,
INCLUDING CLIMATE CHANGE, ON
THESE CORE QUESTIONS?
CAN WE IMPROVE PRECISION AND
ATTRIBUTION OF OUR ANALYSIS IF
WE DON'T INCLUDE A CONSIDERATION
OF CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CHANGE?
AND IF IT'S THE CASE WE NEED TO
INCLUDE CLIMATE AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE, HOW DO WE
DO THAT?
THAT WILL BE THE FOCUS OF WHAT
WE'RE TALKING ABOUT TODAY.
NEXT SLIDE.
THESE ARE JUST BASIC
DEFINITIONS.
THE FIRST IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE
IT'S REALLY AN OVERARCHING
CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK FOR WHAT
WE'RE DOING HERE, THAT IS OF
ECOLOGY.
ECOLOGY FROM OUR POINT OF VIEW
BEING A COMPLEX SYSTEM AND ITS
INTERACTIONS WITH ITS INTERNAL
AND EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT,
DESIGNED WITH ECOLOGICAL
APPROACH IN MIND.
HEALTH IS THE OUTCOME OF THAT
ECOLOGY.
IT RESULTS FROM INTERACTION OF
OUR INTERNAL BIOLOGY, GENETICS,
DIET, HEALTH CONDITIONS AND
CONTACTS, ET CETERA, AND
EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT, SOCIAL
DETERMINANTS OF HEALTH, ECONOMIC
SITUATION, MANY OF THESE ISSUES
YOU'LL HEAR MORE ABOUT TODAY.
IT'S IMPORTANT TO MAKE A
DISTINCTION BETWEEN FOOD, WHICH
ARE THE DELIVERY VEHICLES FOR
NUTRIENTS AND BIOACTIVE
COMPONENTS TO SUPPORT HEALTH,
DIET WHICH IS A COMPOSITE OF
FOODS, AND NUTRITION.
NUTRITION AND FOOD ARE NOT THE
SAME.
NUTRITION FROM OUR POINT OF VIEW
IS A BIOLOGICAL VARIABLE.
NUTRITIONAL STATUS IS ONLY
ACHIEVED THROUGH A SERIES OF
PROCESSES THAT STARTS WITH
INGESTION BUT INCLUDES MULTIPLE
OTHER PROJECTS WITHIN THAT
INTERNAL ECOLOGY.
THOSE PROCESSES ARE INTERACTIVE
NUTRITION, THAT ARE AFFECTED BY
NUTRITIONAL STATUS, AND IT'S
IMPORTANT TO RECOGNIZE
NUTRITIONAL STATUS IS AN INPUT
AND OUTCOME OF HEALTH.
THIS IS A KEY CONCEPT THAT'S
SOMETIMES LOST WHEN WE FOCUS ON
THIS RELATIONSHIP WITH DIET AND
HEALTH.
NEXT SLIDE.
SO WHEN YOU PUT THIS ALL
TOGETHER, THIS CARTOON
REPRESENTS THIS RELATIONSHIP.
WE PERCEIVE NUTRITION AS THE
GLUE THAT'S TYING THE FOOD
SYSTEM TO HEALTH.
YOU CAN'T HAVE HEALTH WITHOUT
NUTRITION.
AND YOU CAN'T HAVE NUTRITION
WITHOUT FOOD.
SO THESE ARE ALL INTERCONNECTED
WITH RECIPROCAL RELATIONSHIP.
THEY ARE ALL BEING AFFECTED AS
WE'RE LEARNING FROM THIS
PROJECT, ALL BEING AFFECTED BY
CLIMATE AND BIOLOGICAL CHANGE.
TALKING ABOUT THE ENVIRONMENT WE
WANT TO BE HOLE I.ISTIC AND
COMPREHENSIVE, THE ENVIRONMENT
AND ALL THE COMPONENTS IN THE
ENVIRONMENT, EXTERNAL
ENVIRONMENT AND INTERNAL
ENVIRONMENT AND HOW THEY
INTERACT.
NEXT SLIDE.
NEXT.
WHEN WE TALK ABOUT CLIMATE AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE WE HAVE TO
RECOGNIZE THERE ARE MULTIPLE
PATHWAYS THROUGH WHICH A
CHANGING ENVIRONMENT CAN HAVE
IMPACT.
THIS IS JUST A REPRESENTATION OF
THOSE PATHWAYS.
DISTAL, INTERMEDIARY, PROXIMAL
EFFECTS.
IT'S IMPORTANT TO KEEP THAT IN
MIND BECAUSE IT'S NOT
ONE-SIZE-FITS-ALL CONCEPT.
CLIMATE IS NOT JUST AFFECTING
EVERYTHING, THERE'S MULTIPLE
PATHWAYS, AND MULTIPLE WAYS WE
CAN INTERVENE IN TERMS OF THESE
PATHWAYS.
NEXT SLIDE.
THIS IS A CARTOON THAT WAS
CREATED BY CDC THAT PUTS THAT
TOGETHER, STARTING WITH
GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS,
CHANGES IN ENVIRONMENT,
SPREADING OUT TO MULTIPLE WAYS,
HAVING AN IMPACT ON THE WORLD WE
LIVE IN.
NEXT SLIDE.
THIS IS A LESS SPECIFIC EXAMPLE
OF PATHWAYS.
IN THIS CASE INTERACTION BETWEEN
CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE
AND WEATHER.
MAJOR GLOBAL HEALTH CHALLENGE,
MULTIPLE WAYS THESE THINGS
HAPPEN.
WHAT'S IMPORTANT, OBVIOUSLY ALL
THIS IS IMPORTANT BUT AT THE
BOTTOM WE WANTED TO HIGHLIGHT
VULNERABILITY OF SPECIFIC
POPULATIONS, WHICH IS WHY WE
HAVE TO PAY ATTENTION TO THE
LIFE COURSE AND SUSCEPTIBLITY OF
GROUPS AND THE ROLE OF
NUTRITION, THE BIOLOGY OF
NUTRITION AS INPUT AND OUTCOME
OF THESE PATHWAYS.
NEXT SLIDE.
AS WE HEARD IN THE LAST WORKSHOP
FOCUS ON FOOD SYSTEMS IS
CRITICAL, REPRESENTING A
CRITICAL ECOLOGY AND PART OF
THIS CONVERSATION.
AGAIN, WE'RE TAKING A
COMPREHENSIVE VIEW, RECOGNIZING
THE INPUTS FROM HUMANS, EXTERNAL
ENVIRONMENT, INTERNAL
ENVIRONMENT, ROLE OF CONSUMER
AND PRODUCER CHOICES, WHEN WE
TALK ABOUT FOOD SYSTEMS WE
REALLY ARE TALKING ABOUT SEED TO
MOUTH, SEED TO TABLE, AND
EVERYTHING IN BETWEEN.
SO, IT'S IMPORTANT TO TAKE THAT
COMPREHENSIVE VIEW AND WORKING
GROUP 3 HAS PRESENTED THAT VERY
NICELY.
NEXT SLIDE.
ONE OF THE THINGS THAT'S BEEN
HIGHLIGHTED THROUGHOUT THIS
PROCESS IS THE CONCEPT OF
RECIPROCITY, THE CASE OF FOOD
SYSTEMS AND CLIMATE THIS SLIDE
IS REPRESENTATION THAT IT'S NOT
JUST ONE DIRECTIONAL
RELATIONSHIP, NOT JUST CLIMATE
AFFECTING THE FOOD SYSTEM OR
FOOD SYSTEMS AFFECTING CLIMATE,
ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE.
IT'S BOTH.
WE NEED TO ACKNOWLEDGE BOTH OF
THOSE AND FIGURE OUT HOW TO
CREATE SOME SORT OF BALANCE.
NEXT.
WORKING GROUP 2 HERE GAVE US A
REALLY NICE FRAMEWORK FOR HOW WE
MIGHT VIEW CONSUMER CHOICE, THAT
SECOND PIECE, SECOND BUCK NET
THIS RELATIONSHIP, WHAT
CONSUMERS EAT AND WHAT PATTERNS
ARE.
AND THEY HAVE ORGANIZED THINKING
AROUND FOUR CORE BUCKETS.
IT'S REALLY HELPFUL WAY TO LOOK
AT THIS FROM ACQUISITION TO
PREPARATION TO ACTUALLY WHAT
PEOPLE ARE EATING, TO THE
CONTRIBUTIONS OF ISSUES AROUND
STORAGE AND WASTE.
THESE ARE ALL GOING TO BE
COVERED BY WORKING GROUP 2 HERE,
IT'S AN IMPORTANT CONCEPT.
AGAIN, THAT OVERLAPPING THEME OF
THE CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENT AND
ITS IMPACT ON THESE BUCKETS.
NEXT SLIDE.
NEXT.
SO WHEN WE TALK ABOUT THE FOOD
SYSTEM AND ITS INTERACTION
THERE'S A CORE RELATIONSHIP,
WE'RE GOING BACK TO THAT CONCEPT
OF FOOD, NUTRITION -- FOOD, DIET
AND NUTRITION.
WHEN THE FOOD SYSTEM IS IMPACTED
NEGATIVELY WE HAVE A NEGATIVE
IMPACT ON FOOD SECURITY AND
NUTRITION SECURITY WHICH HAS A
NEGATIVE IMPACT ON NUTRITIONAL
STATUS AND HEALTH.
THAT CREATES A VICIOUS CYCLE IN
THE FOOD SYSTEM, AND THAT
VICIOUS CYCLE IS ALSO IMPACTED
BY CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CHANGE.
NEXT SLIDE.
IT'S IMPORTANT TO RECOGNIZE THAT
IT'S NOT JUST WHAT WE'RE EATING.
IT'S NOT JUST A MATTER OF TOO
MUCH OR TOO LITTLE FOOD.
OTHER THINGS ARE GOING ON IN
THIS VERY COMPLEX GLOBAL HEALTH
CONTEXT, AND IT'S REPRESENTED BY
THIS CARTOON.
WE OBVIOUSLY CONTINUE TO HAVE
SIGNIFICANT ISSUES WITH
UNDERNUTRITION.
WE LEARNED IN WORKING GROUP 2,
WE HAD A NICE PRESENTATION ON
THE NUTRITION TRANSITION AND ITS
IMPACT ON THE GLOBAL NUTRITION
AND HEALTH CONTEXT.
THAT'S HAVING AN IMPACT ON
MULTIPLE ASPECTS OF MALNUTRITION
INCLUDING DOUBLE BURDEN.
ALL THAT'S HAPPENING WHILE WE
CONTINUE TO HAVE PANDEMIC
INFECTIONS, HIV, MALARIA, TB,
COVID, EBOLA, AND THE NEXT
INFECTION, AS WELL AS FOOD
SAFETY AND FOOD-BORNE ILLNESS.
VECTOR-BORNE ILLNESS.
WE HAVE GROWING PANDEMICS OF
NON-COMMUNICABLE DISEASES, ALL
HAPPENING SIMULTANEOUSLY, ALL
THESE HAVE BIDIRECTIONAL
RELATIONSHIP, ALL RELATED TO
NUTRITIONAL STATUS.
THE POINT IS IT'S NOT A MATTER
OF JUST TOO MUCH OR TOO LITTLE
FOOD.
IT'S HAPPENING IN THE CONTEXT OF
A INCORPORATE CHAING
ENVIRONMENT.
IT'S, AGAIN, IMPORTANT TO
RECOGNIZE THE ROLE OF THE LIFE
COURSE AND PAYING ATTENTION TO
THE IMPORTANCE OF DIFFERENT
STAGES, DEVELOPMENTAL STAGES,
HOW THEY ARE AFFECTED BY THESE
RELATIONSHIPS.
NEXT SLIDE.
NEXT.
WHEN WE PUT THIS ALL TOGETHER,
HERE'S WHAT WE REFER TO AS THE
NUTRITION ECOLOGY, AND THIS IS
SORT OF CONCEPTUALLY HOW WE'RE
ORGANIZING THINKING ON THIS
PROJECT AS WELL AS OTHER
PROJECTS THAT WE'VE BEEN DOING
RECENTLY.
WE HAVE A SERIES OF REPORTS
RELEASED YESTERDAY, AMERICAN
JOURNAL OF CLINICAL NUTRITION,
USED NUTRITIONAL ECOLOGY,
ECOLOGICAL APPROACH TO ADDRESS
INFANT FEEDING PRACTICES.
BUT IT'S AN APPLICABLE CONCEPT,
APPLICABLE TO MULTIPLE QUESTIONS
IN THE FIELD OF NUTRITION AND
HEALTH.
NEXT SLIDE.
NEXT.
THESE ARE CORE QUESTIONS WE'RE
HOPING TO ADDRESS.
HOW IS CLIMATE/ENVIRONMENTAL
CHANGE AFFECTING PRIORITIES.
THE SECOND QUESTION THERE WHAT
WE'RE GOING TO FOCUS ON TODAY,
HOW TO WE TAKE THIS INFORMATION
AND CREATE ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK
TO BE ABLE TO REALLY UNDERSTAND
IT MORE FULLY AND INTEGRATE THAT
UNDERSTANDING INTO WHAT WE DO IN
TERMS OF TRANSLATION, WHICH IS
THE LAST BULLET THERE, HOW DO WE
TRANSLATE.
HOW DO WE TAKE ALL THIS
INFORMATION AND TRANSLATE INTO
EVIDENCE-INFORMED RESEARCH TO
TEST INTERVENTIONS AND SUPPORT
AGENCIES DEVELOPING THE PROGRAMS
AND POLICIES.
ORGANIZATIONALLY THIS IS HOW THE
PROJECT HAS BEEN ORGANIZED.
WE MENTIONED THE SECRETARIAT,
CONSISTS OF NICHD STAFF AND A&D
STAFF.
SECOND IS SCIENTIFIC STEERING
COMMITTEE, REPRESENTATION FROM
MULTIPLE AGENCIES WITHIN THE
U.S. GOVERNMENT, A GROWING
INTEREST IN THIS INTERSECTION OF
CLIMATE AND HEALTH.
AND THE LAST CIRCLE IS OF COURSE
THE WORKING GROUPS DOING THE
REAL WORK OF THIS PROJECT.
NEXT SLIDE.
SO WE PUT THIS TOGETHER, THIS IS
HOW THE PROJECT HAS BEEN
ORGANIZED.
WE HAVE THREE CIRCLES.
WE'VE HEARD FROM THE FIRST THREE
GROUPS, ONE ON HEALTH, ONE ON
FOOD SYSTEMS AND ONE ON DIETARY
PATTERNS AND THEIR INTERACTIONS
WITH CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CHANGE.
TODAY WE'LL HEAR FROM THE GROUP
ON MEASURES, METRICS AND
ANALYTICS.
IN JUNE, JUNE 12, THE LAST GROUP
WILL PRESENT ON TRANSLATION OF
THE PATIENT ACTIVITIES.
THIS IS THE LISTING OF THE GROUP
AND CO-CHAIRS FROM EACH GROUP.
WE'RE GRATEFUL FOR ALL OF THE
SUPPORT WE'VE GOTTEN FROM ALL OF
THE CO-CHAIRS, AND WE'RE ALSO
NEEDING TO ACKNOWLEDGE THE WORK
OF ALL THE WORKING GROUP
MEMBERS, EACH HAVE 5 TO 8
MEMBERS IN THEM, AND IT'S BEEN A
TREMENDOUS COMMITMENT ON THEIR
PART TO BE INVOLVED IN THIS
PROJECT.
WE'RE GRATEFUL FOR THAT
COMMITMENT AND LOOK FORWARD TO
WORKING TO GET THESE PRODUCTS
OUT.
NEXT SLIDE.
THIS IS JUST A REMINDER THAT OUR
FINAL WORKSHOP IS JUNE 12.
THERE'S A LINK IF YOU'RE
INTERESTED.
WE HOPE YOU CAN JOIN US FOR THAT
ONE.
IT SHOULD BE AS GOOD AS THE REST
OF THEM HAVE BEEN, AND TODAY'S
WILL BE.
I THINK THAT'S IT.
WITH THAT I'LL TURN IT OVER TO
OUR CO-CHAIRS FOR TODAY, DR.
BRUCE LEE AND DR. ZAK CONRAD.
THANK YOU.
>> THANKS, DAN.
AND THANKS, DAN, AND DREW AND
ALISON AND DEEPA AND THE
SECRETARIAT FOR THIS OPPORTUNITY
TO REALLY CONTRIBUTE TO A VERY
IMPORTANT TOPIC.
ZACH AND I ARE THE CO-CHAIRS OF
THE WORKING GROUP.
AND OUR WORKING GROUP MEMBERS
HAVE BEEN WORKING VERY HARD TO
PUT TOGETHER THIS WORKSHOP.
SO, ZACH, WOULD YOU LIKE TO OPEN
WITH SOME COMMENTS?
>> SURE.
THIS IS THIS HAS BEEN REALLY THE
PRODUCT, WHAT YOU'RE SEEING NOW,
THE PRODUCT OF SEVERAL MONTHS OF
PLANNING, AMONGST THE WORKING
GROUP MEMBERS, BUT WITH THE
DIRECTION AND ASSISTANCE FROM
THE SECRETARIAT AND THE NUMBER
OF PEOPLE THAT HAVE ALREADY BEEN
MENTIONED.
SO BRUCE AND I JUST WANT TO SET
THE STAGE TODAY TO TALK ABOUT
JUST BRIEFLY AT THE OUTSET WHAT
THE OBJECTIVES ARE OF THIS
WORKSHOP, AND WHAT SOME OF THE
CROSS-CUTTING THEMES ARE.
SO, BRUCE, I'LL LET YOU TAKE IT
FROM THERE.
>> THANKS, ZACH.
AS DAN MENTIONED, THE CHARGE FOR
THIS WORKING GROUP, WORKING
GROUP 4 OF THE ADVANTAGE
PROJECT, IS TO REALLY LOOK AT
THE DIFFERENT TYPES OF METHODS,
METRICS, AND MEASURES.
THAT WILL BE INVOLVED IN BETTER
UNDERSTANDING THIS VERY COMPLEX
SYSTEM THAT CONNECTS CLIMATE,
ENVIRONMENT, NUTRITION, AND
HEALTH.
THE PREVIOUS WORKING GROUPS, THE
PREVIOUS WORKSHOPS, HAVE COVERED
SOME OF THESE IMPORTANT AND
COMPLEX RELATIONSHIPS.
ANYTIME YOU HAVE A COMPLEX
SYSTEM, YOU REALLY WANT TO
UNDERSTAND HOW TO BETTER
UNDERSTAND THAT SYSTEM, HOW TO
MEASURE DIFFERENT ASPECTS OF THE
SYSTEM, HOW TO DETERMINE WHAT
METRICS WILL BE VERY RELEVANT.
SO THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP
IS TO REALLY GET STARTED IN
UNDERSTANDING WHAT ARE THE
DIFFERENT METRICS AND METHODS
AND MEASURES THAT ARE AVAILABLE,
AND HOW CAN WE ORGANIZE THEM.
BECAUSE RATHER THAN HAVING A
LONG, VERY CONFUSING LIST OF
DIFFERENT WAYS THAT DIFFERENT
ASPECTS OF THE SYSTEM CAN BE
MEASURED, HOW DO WE START
DEVELOPING FRAMEWORKS,
ANALYTICAL APPROACHES THAT CAN
GET A BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF
THIS COMPLEX SYSTEM, THESE
COMPLEX SYSTEMS.
OR COURSE BY THE END OF THE
WORKSHOP, WE DON'T ANTICIPATE
HAVING ALL THE ANSWERS, BUT WHAT
WE'D LIKE TO DO IS GET STARTED
TO HELP EVERYONE UNDERSTAND HOW
DO WE APPROACH THESE DIFFERENT
METRICS, MEASURES, AND METHODS.
>> I'LL JUST SAY THAT THE --
SOMETHING WE WANT TO BE THINKING
ABOUT AS WE'RE MOVING FORWARD
WITH THIS WORKSHOP TODAY IS A
FEW CROSS-CUTTING THEMES.
WE'RE GOING TO BE TALKING
ABOUT -- WE STRUCTURED THIS SO
WE'RE DISCUSSING EACH OF THE
DOMAINS OF FOOD SYSTEM
SUSTAINABILITY.
WHAT IS GOING TO APPEAR TO BE
DISTINCTLY, BUT THAT'S JUST THE
NATURE HOW THIS TIME ALLOWS FOR
THIS WORKSHOP, BUT REALLY WE
WANT TO BE THINKING ABOUT WHAT
THE INTERACTIONS ARE.
SO I WANT TO ENCOURAGE ALL OF
THOSE OF YOU THAT ARE PROVIDING
COMMENTS AND FEEDBACK TO REALLY
CHIME IN AND TO BE THINKING
ABOUT WHAT ARE THE WAYS THAT
THESE DIFFERENT DOMAINS CAN BE
INTEGRATED.
AND WHAT ARE THE CAUSAL
DIRECTIONS THAT WE'RE TALKING
ABOUT, TO REALLY CONSIDER THAT.
IN SOME CASES, IT MIGHT BE VERY
CLEAR THAT ONE OF THE DOMAINS IS
REALLY CAUSING THE IMPACTS THAT
WE SEE ON ANOTHER DOMAIN, YOU
MIGHT THINK ABOUT SOMETHING LIKE
AGRICULTURE AND HOW THAT'S
IMPACTING CLIMATE CHANGE, BUT WE
ALSO WANT TO ENCOURAGE PEOPLE TO
BE THINKING ABOUT THE OTHER
CAUSAL DIRECTION, RIGHT?
HOW CLIMATE CHANGE MIGHT BE
IMPACTING AGRICULTURE.
AND HOW WE IMPORTANTLY, WHAT
THIS WORKSHOP IS ABOUT, HOW WE
MEASURE THAT, RIGHT? ALSO ABOUT
SCALE.
SO HOW WE THINK ABOUT WHAT'S
HAPPENING AT THE INDIVIDUAL
LEVEL, AT THE COMMUNITY LEVEL,
SUBNATIONAL, NATIONAL, AND THEN
OF COURSE AT THE GLOBAL LEVEL.
WE WANT TO BE ABLE TO BE FLUID
IN OUR THINKING ACROSS THOSE
DIFFERENT SCALES.
IMPLICATIONS, RIGHT?
WHETHER THAT'S IMPLICATIONS FOR
CLINICAL PRACTICE, FOR PUBLIC
HEALTH, AGAIN, WE'RE NOT MAKING
RECOMMENDATIONS.
WE'RE NOT MAKING STATEMENT ALSO
ABOUT POLICY.
BUT WHAT WE ARE THINKING ABOUT
IS HOW DO WE MEASURE THESE
THINGS SO THEY MIGHT HAVE
IMPLICATIONS FOR DIFFERENT
STAKEHOLDERS AND THINGS WE THINK
MATTER.
THE STRENGTHS AND LIMITATIONS,
WHAT GAPS WILL EMERGE FROM THIS
DISCUSSION TODAY, SO DIFFERENT
WAYS TO THINK CRITICALLY ABOUT
THE EXCELLENT PRESENTATION
THANKSGIVING YOU'RE ABOUT --
PRESENTATIONS THAT YOU'RE ABOUT
TO SEE FROM WORKING GROUP
MEMBERS AND KEY EXPERTS WE'VE
INVITED TO SPEAK.
THANK YOU.
>> THANK YOU, ZACH.
ZACH MENTIONED BRINGING THINGS
TOGETHER, MULTI-SCALE SYSTEM AND
COMPLEX SYSTEM.
I'LL KICK OFF THE WORKSHOP
TALKING ABOUT SYSTEM SCIENCE
APPROACHES TO REALLY BETTER
UNDERSTAND THIS COMPLEX SYSTEM
THAT CONNECTS THE ENVIRONMENT,
CLIMATE, NUTRITION, AND HEALTH.
OKAY.
SO, HOPEFULLY EVERYONE CAN SEE
MY SLIDE.
BASICALLY AS I MENTIONED THIS
WILL BE COVERING SYSTEM SCIENCE
APPROACHES FOR THE ENVIRONMENT,
CLIMATE, NUTRITION, AND HEALTH.
AND SO WE MENTIONED THE WORD
SYSTEM
WHAT IS A SYSTEM?
A SYSTEM IS BASICALLY
ACKNOWLEDGING THE FACT THAT
INDIVIDUALS ARE BASICALLY
ANYTHING IN SOCIETY, ANYTHING IN
THE WORLD, ANYTHING IN THE
UNIVERSE, DOESN'T EXIST IN
ISOLATION.
EVERYTHING IS PART OF MANY
DIFFERENT COMPLEX SYSTEMS SUCH
AS SOCIAL, POLITICAL, ECONOMIC,
AND ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS.
SO CLIMATE CHANGE, THE
ENVIRONMENT, NUTRITION, HEALTH,
AS DAN DEMONSTRATED IN THAT
PREVIOUS SLIDE DURING HIS
EARLIER PRESENTATION ARE REALLY
CONNECTED IN MANY COMPLEX
DIFFERENT WAYS.
AND, AGAIN, AS DAN EMPHASIZED,
IT'S NOT A ONE-DIRECTION
CONNECTION.
YOU REALLY HAVE NOT JUST
BIDIRECTIONAL BUT
MULTI-DIRECTIONAL CONNECTIONS
AND INFLUENCES IN WHICH THE
DIFFERENT COMPONENTS AFFECT EACH
OTHER.
AND THESE COMPLEX SYSTEMS CROSS
MULTIPLE SCALES, AS ZACH
MENTIONED.
THEY ALSO EVOLVE OVER TIME.
FOR INSTANCE, IF YOU HAVE A
PERSON, THAT PERSON'S AFFECTED
BY ENVIRONMENTAL INFLUENCES,
SOCIAL INFLUENCES, INDIVIDUAL
AND INDIVIDUAL BEHAVIORS THAT
AFFECT HIM OR HER.
THERE'S ALSO BIOLOGICAL SYSTEMS
WITHIN THAT PERSON.
AND OVER TIME, THOSE SYSTEMS
WILL CHANGE.
SO IT'S DIFFERENT WHEN SOMEONE'S
A NEWBORN OR PRENATAL, OR
IMMEDIATELY POST-NATAL, OR IF
SOMEONE'S A YOUNG CHILD VERSUS
ADOLESCENT VERSUS YOUNG OR OLDER
ADULT.
SO, THINGS WITHIN THE BODY WILL
CHANGE.
THINGS OUTSIDE THE PERSON WILL
CHANGE.
FOR INSTANCE, SOCIAL
INTERACTIONS THAT A PERSON HAS
AS A 20-YEAR-OLD, VERY DIFFERENT
FROM THE SOCIAL INTERACTIONS AS
A 5-YEAR-OLD, ET CETERA.
THESE ARE COMPLEX AND CHANGE
OVER TIME.
THE DANGERS OF NOT REALLY USING
SYSTEMS APPROACHES, AND NOT
ACKNOWLEDGING THESE COMPLEX
SYSTEMS ARE MULTI-FOLD.
FIRST OF ALL, YOU MAY COME UP
WITH BAND-AIDS RATHER THAN
SOLUTIONS.
YOU MIGHT SAY, OKAY, WELL,
THERE'S THIS SUPPOSED SINGLE
CAUSE, SINGLE EFFECT SITUATION,
AND LET'S COME UP WITH A
SOLUTION TO ADDRESS THAT.
BUT WHEN YOU DON'T ACCOUNT FOR
OTHER FACTORS IT'S NOT
SUSTAINABLE AND YOU MAY MISS
SECONDARY AND TERTIARY EFFECTS
THAT MAY BE OCCURRING, THAT'S
BOTH POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE.
SO POSITIVE IN THE SENSE IF HAVE
YOU POLICY OR INTERVENTION, AND
YOU DON'T REALLY INCORPORATE OR
UNDERSTAND ALL OF THE SECONDARY
AND TERTIARY EFFECTS YOU MAY BE
ACTUALLY UNDERESTIMATING THE
VALUE OF THE POLICY.
AT THE SAME TIME YOU MAY HAVE
UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES.
HISTORY IS FULL OF VERY
WELL-MEANING APPROACHES,
WELL-MEANING POLICIES AND
INTERVENTIONS THAT ACTUALLY TURN
TOUT HAVE NEGATIVE CONSEQUENCES.
WORSENING DISPARITIES.
THERE'S DISPARITIES WITHIN OUR
SOCIETY, IN TERMS OF HEALTH,
NUTRITION, IN TERMS OF
ENVIRONMENTAL EXPOSURES, AND
THIS CAN WORSEN IF YOU DON'T
REALLY ANTICIPATE OR ADDRESS THE
MANY FACTORS INVOLVED.
YOU CAN SPEND TIME, EFFORT,
RESOURCES FROM TRIAL AND ERROR.
IF YOU'RE TRYING WITHOUT
UNDERSTANDING CONSEQUENCES, THAT
CAN BE A TREMENDOUS WASTE OF
TIME AND EFFORT AND RESOURCES.
AND FINE YOU CAN INTRODUCE BIAS.
IF YOU DON'T FULLY UNDERSTAND
WHAT'S GOING ON, AND AREN'T
MEASURING APPROPRIATELY, THEN
YOU MAY HAVE A BIASED VIEW OF
WHAT ACTUALLY IS HAPPENING.
SO, THERE'S DIFFERENT APPROACHES
AND DIFFERENT METHODS TO BETTER
UNDERSTAND COMPLEX SYSTEMS.
ONE IS SYSTEMS MAPPING WHICH IS
ESSENTIALLY TAKING -- VISUAL
DISPLAY OR VISUALIZATION OF ALL
THE DIFFERENT FACTORS AND
PROCESSES THAT ARE INVOLVED IN
THE COMPLEX SYSTEM.
HERE'S AN EXAMPLE WHERE WE
BASICALLY SKETCH OUT SYSTEMS MAP
SHOWING DIFFERENT FACTORS THAT
AFFECT HOW AND WHERE AND WHEN A
PERSON GETS VACCINATED.
I'M NOT GOING THROUGH THIS IN
DETAIL BUT THIS SHOWS YOU AN
EXAMPLE OF SHOWING DIFFERENT
TYPES OF PROCESSES AND DIFFERENT
FACTORS INVOLVED.
IT GIVES A SENSE OF -- HELPS
PEOPLE UNDERSTAND EACH OTHER'S
CONCEPTUALIZATION BUT ALSO HELPS
YOU UNDERSTAND YOUR OWN
CONCEPTUALIZATION OF THE SYSTEM
BECAUSE MANY TIMES YOU MAY NOT
EVEN REALLY FULLY UNDERSTAND
WHAT YOU UNDERSTAND ABOUT THE
SYSTEM.
AND THERE ARE TECHNIQUES,
SYSTEMS MAPPING WORKSHOPPING
PULLING TOGETHER STAKEHOLDERS
AND DIFFERENT PARTS OF THE
SYSTEM, AND CONTRIBUTE TO A
SYSTEMS MAP.
AND THEN THERE'S SYSTEMS
MODELING.
SYSTEMS MODELING IS TAKING FOR
INSTANCE SYSTEMS MAP AND REALLY
MAKING IT LIVE.
SO YOU ESSENTIALLY ARE SAYING,
OKAY, I'M GOING TO DEVELOP A
REPRESENTATION, A LIVE
REPRESENTATION, OF THE STRUCTURE
OF THE SYSTEM AND FACTORS AND
PROCESSES, SOME OF THAT I CAN
SEE HOW THINGS MIGHT WORK
TOGETHER.
AND THIS CAN HELP YOU FORECAST
DIFFERENT POSSIBILITIES, HELP
YOU RUN DIFFERENT TYPES OF
SCENARIOS, LET'S CONSERVE AS
VIRTUAL LABORATORY TO TEST
DIFFERENT POLICIES AND
INTERVENTIONS.
SO COMPUTER-AIDED APPROACHES
HAVE REALLY TRANSFORMED MANY
OTHER FIELDS.
SO, FOR INSTANCE, IF YOU LOOK AT
THE SYSTEMS MAP OR MODEL OF ALL
THE FACTORS AND PROCESSES THAT
AFFECT THE WEATHER, SO IT BRINGS
TOGETHER BAROMETRIC PRESSURE
MEASUREMENTS, BRINGS TOGETHER
MEASUREMENTS OF THE RAIN, HOW
THE CLOUDS ARE MOVING, HOW THE
WINDS ARE CHANGING DIRECTION,
WHAT'S HAPPENING WITH THE
TEMPERATURE, AND REALLY BRINGS
EVERYTHING TOGETHER AND
SYNTHESIZES SO THAT YOU SEE THE
WEATHER MAPS THAT YOU SEE AND
DAILY FORECAST IN THE NEWS EACH
DAY.
THIS WAY, YOU CAN GET A SENSE OF
WHAT'S BEEN HAPPENING WITH THE
WEATHER, WHAT'S CURRENTLY
HAPPENING, AND WHAT MAY BE
HAPPENING AN HOUR, TWO HOUR,
SEVERAL DAYS OR MONTHS OR YEARS
FROM NOW.
AND SUCH SYSTEMS MODELING HAS
ALSO REALLY TRANSFORMED FIELDS
LIKE MANUFACTURING,
TRANSPORTATION, AEROSPACE
ENGINEERING, AIR TRAFFIC
CONTROL.
ALL THESE CASES, YOU HAVE THESE
COMPLEX COMPUTER MODELS, WHICH
REALLY HELPS PEOPLE UNDERSTAND
WHAT'S HAPPENING AND WHERE ARE
THE PLANES FLYING, HOW ARE
MANUFACTURING PROCESSES WORKING.
YOU CAN DO A SIMILAR THING WHEN
IT COMES TO THE ENVIRONMENT AND
NUTRITION AND HEALTH.
WHEN WE TALK ABOUT SYSTEMS
APPROACHES, WE CAN DIVIDE THEM
INTO TWO GENERAL TYPES.
TOP-DOWN AND BOTTOM-UP
APPROACHES.
TOP-DOWN APPROACHES OTHERWISE
KNOWN AS DATA DRIVEN APPROACH,
WE COVERED THIS IN A RECENT
PUBLICATION IN PLOS MEDICINE,
TOP-DOWN DATA-DRIVEN APPROACHES
TAKE A MASS OF DATA, AND IT'S
ALMOST LIKE HOVERING ABOVE THE
DATA AND LOOKING FOR PATTERNS OR
ASSOCIATIONS AND TRENDS.
THIS CAN BE HELPFUL WHEN IT
COMES TO DISCOVER WHEN YOU'RE
TRYING TO GET A SENSE OF WHAT
MIGHT BE GOING ON.
THESE TYPES OF APPROACHES DON'T
REALLY TEASE OUT CAUGHT AND
AFFECT OR SHOW WHAT MECHANISMS
MAY BE INVOLVED BUT CAN HELP YOU
SAY I CAN SEE ASSOCIATIONS AND
FACTORS MIGHT BE PLAYING A ROLE,
LET'S LOOK INTO THIS FURTHER.
AND BOTTOMS-UP ARE MECHANISTIC,
YOU TRY TO REBUILD THE SYSTEM,
TRYING TO RECREATE WHAT'S
HAPPENING AND TRY TO DETERMINE,
YOU KNOW, HOW THE DIFFERENT
CAUSES AND EFFECT ARE ACTUALLY
MECHANISTICALLY CONNECTED.
SO YOU REALLY NEED BOTH TYPES,
TO UNDERSTAND AND BUILD VIRTUAL
LABORATORIES.
TOP-DOWN APPROACHES INCLUDE
STATISTICAL MODELING LIKE
REGRESSION, MACHINE LEARNING,
DIFFERENT TYPES OF MACHINE
LEARNING, SUPERVISED AND
UNSUPERVISED, CLUSTERING DATA IN
DIFFERENT WAYS, ARRANGING THEM
IN DIFFERENT WAYS, DIFFERENT
TYPES OF DATA MANAGEMENT
APPROACHES, NEURAL NETWORKS.
AGAIN, THESE ARE USEFUL FOR
DISCOVERY, FOR GIVING A SENSE OF
WE SEE ASSOCIATIONS AND
CORRELATIONS BUT THEY DON'T
REALLY TELL YOU CAUSE AND
EFFECT.
AND THERE ARE BOTTOMS UP
MECHANISTIC APPROACHES, A WIDE
VARIETY.
I WOULD VIEW THEM AS A
CONTINUUM.
YOU MIGHT HAVE HEARD AGENT-BASED
MODELING, BUT IN TRUTH WHILE
THESE FORM DIFFERENT TIMES OF
CATEGORIES IT'S ACTUALLY A
CONTINUUM.
YOU CAN HAVE MANY TYPES OF
MODELING APPROACHES MIXED
TOGETHER, SO MODEL MAY HAVE
COMPARTMENT MODEL ELEMENTS OR
MIGHT HAVE AGENT-BASED ELEMENT
OR NETWORK MODEL.
IF YOU LOOK ON THE LEFT SIDE,
YOU HAVE DECISION ANALYTIC
MODELS, USEFUL WHEN YOU'RE
REPRESENTING A DECISION FOR A
SINGLE PERSON, ASSUMING THAT
SINGLE PERSON MAY NOT
NECESSARILY BE AFFECTED BY OTHER
THINGS, AND IS REALLY FOCUSED ON
I'M MAKING DECISIONS, YOU CAN
CREATE A TRAY SAYING OKAY, HERE
ARE THE OPTIONS, AND HERE ARE
THE POSSIBILITIES, AND THEN THAT
PERSON CAN PROGRESS DOWN THIS
DECISION TREE THAT YOU SEE, FOR
INSTANCE.
IF THE SAME DECISION IS REPEATED
OVER AND OVER AGAIN, OVER TIME,
THAT'S WHERE MARCOV MODELS ARE
USEFUL, REPRESENTATIONS OF
DECISION TREES, SAME DECISION
REPEATED OVER AND OVER.
INSTEAD OF SAYING THAT I'M GOING
TO THE MARKET OR GYM EACH DAY,
YOU SAY, OKAY, THIS DAY I'M IN
THE GYM STATE, THIS DAY I'M IN
THE MARKET STATE AND YOU MOVE
AMONG THE DIFFERENT STATES.
THERE ARE SITUATIONS WHERE
DECISIONS, YOUR DECISIONS, OR
WHAT'S HAPPENING, IS AFFECTED BY
WHAT'S HAPPENING WITH THE
OVERALL POPULATION OR GROUPS
AROUND YOU.
WHEN YOU WANT TO INCORPORATE
THESE GROUP EFFECTS, THAT'S WHEN
YOU START MOVING TOWARDS
COMPARTMENT MODELS, WHEN THE
PROPORTION OF A POPULATION
THAT'S DOING SOMETHING ACTUALLY
AFFECTS YOUR DECISION OR WHAT'S
HAPPENING TO YOU, SO THAT'S WHY
MANY INFECTIOUS DISEASE MODELS
ARE COMPARTMENT MODELS BECAUSE
IT DOESN'T JUST MATTER WHAT'S
HAPPENING WITH THE VIRUS AND
YOUR EXPOSURE.
THE PROPORTION OF THE POPULATION
THAT'S ACTUALLY INFECTED WITH
THE VIRUS IN TURN AFFECTS YOUR
RISK OF GETTING OR TRANSMITTING
THE VIRUS.
SO THAT'S WHEN WE HAVE
COMPARTMENT MODELS.
SYSTEMS DYNAMICS MODELS BRING IN
MORE COMPLEXITY IN TERMS OF
WHAT'S HAPPENING WITH DIFFERENT
PEOPLE OR ASPECTS OF THE
POPULATION OR ENVIRONMENT.
NETWORK MODELS REPRESENT THE
ACTUAL CONNECTIONS BETWEEN
DIFFERENT PEOPLE OR DIFFERENT
THINGS.
SO THIS IS WHEN YOU SEE THESE
PICTURES OF THESE NODES AND
CONNECTIONS BETWEEN THOSE.
NETWORK MODELS ARE USEFUL WHEN
YOU WANT TO REPRESENT HOW
DIFFERENT PEOPLE OR DIFFERENT
COMPONENTS IN A SYSTEM ARE
CONNECTED.
AND AGENT-BASED MODELS WHERE
WHATEVER YOU WANT TO REPRESENT,
TWO HALLMARKS OF AGENT-BASED
MODELS ARE REPRESENTING
AUTONOMOUS DECISION MAKING SO
WHEN DIFFERENT ASPECTS OF THE
SYSTEM, DIFFERENT PEOPLE HAVE
AUTONOMOUS DECISION MAKING, AND
YOU CAN REPRESENT COMPLEX
ADAPTIVE BEHAVIOR, WHERE
DIFFERENT PEOPLE OR COMPONENTS
WITHIN SYSTEMS LEARN OVER TIME,
CHANGE THEIR BEHAVIORS, CHANGE
THEIR DECISIONS OVER TIME.
SO THIS IS JUST A QUICK
REPRESENTATION OF HOW THESE
TYPES ARE DIFFERENT.
WE COULD GO INTO GREATER DETAIL
ABOUT EACH MODELING TYPE, AND
COMPONENTS, BUT JUST REMEMBER
THAT THERE'S THESE DIFFERENT
WAYS OF APPROACHING MODEL
BUILDING AND TYPE OF MODEL THAT
YOU USE REALLY DEPENDS ON WHAT
YOU'RE ACTUALLY TRYING TO
REPRESENT WITHIN THE SYSTEM.
THERE ARE MANY IMPORTANT
CONSIDERATIONS WHEN IT COMES TO
SYSTEMS MODEL.
FIRST, YOU HAVE TO CONSIDER WHAT
IS THE PERSPECTIVE.
FOR INSTANCE, A DECISION OR
ISSUE FROM A GOVERNMENT'S
PERSPECTIVE MAY BE DIFFERENT
FROM HEALTH INSURANCE
PERSPECTIVE, WHICH MAY BE VERY
DIFFERENT FROM AN INDIVIDUAL
PERSPECTIVE, OR SOCIETAL
PERSPECTIVE.
SO, FOR INSTANCE IF YOU'RE
TRYING TO MAXIMIZE YOUR GAIN OR
YOUR SITUATION, YOUR DECISION
MAY BE DIFFERENT FROM A
GOVERNMENT'S DECISION, WHO HAS
TO -- A GOVERNMENT HAS TO TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT EVERYONE IN SOCIETY
AND TRY TO MAXIMIZE THE
SITUATION OR OPTIMIZE THE
SITUATION FOR EVERYONE IN
SOCIETY.
SO IT'S VERY IMPORTANT WHEN YOU
DEVELOP A MODEL TO SAY, OKAY,
WHAT PERSPECTIVE ARE YOU TAKING
WITH THIS MODEL.
ALSO, IT'S IMPORTANT TO CONSIDER
THE TIME FRAME.
SO, CREATING A MODEL THAT
REPRESENTS WHAT'S HAPPENING OVER
THE NEXT DAY, NO LONGER THAN
THAT, IS VERY DIFFERENT FROM A
MODEL THAT RECOMMENDS WHAT'S
HAPPENING OVER SIX MONTHS, A
YEAR, TEN YEARS OR 20 YEARS.
WHEN YOU'RE DEALING WITH
SOMETHING LIKE CLIMATE CHANGE
AND YOU BUILD A MODEL AND SAY
WE'RE GOING TO REPRESENT WHAT'S
GOING TO HAPPEN OVER THE NEXT
FIVE HOURS, THAT'S GOING TO BE
LIMITED IN TERMS OF
UNDERSTANDING THE IMPACT OF
CLIMATE CHANGE.
YOU MIGHT WANT TO EXTEND AND SAY
WHAT'S GOING TO BE HAPPENING
OVER THE NEXT YEAR OR FIVE YEARS
OR TEN YEARS.
YOU CAN SEE HOW THAT CAN AFFECT
DECISION MAKING BECAUSE IF
YOU'RE MAKING A DECISION TO
OPTIMIZE WHAT'S GOING TO HAPPEN
OVER THE COURSE OF A DAY, THE
ANSWER CAN BE VERY DIFFERENT
FROM, YOU KNOW, OPTIMIZING
WHAT'S HAPPENING OVER THE COURSE
OF A YEAR, OR FIVE YEARS, OR TEN
YEARS.
SO TIME FRAME OF THE MODEL IS
VERY IMPORTANT.
AND AS ZACH ALLUDED TO, WHAT
SCALES ARE BEING INCORPORATED?
SIMPLY REPRESENTING WHAT'S
HAPPENING AT A BIOLOGICAL SCALE,
OR INDIVIDUAL SCALE, THAT'S NOT
GOING TO INCORPORATE WHAT'S
HAPPENING AT AN ENVIRONMENTAL
SCALE, FOR INSTANCE, WHICH IS A
BROADER, LARGER SCALE OR
ECONOMICS SCALE WHICH CAN BE --
ESPECIALLY DEALING WITH
MACRO-ECONOMICS.
IT'S IMPORTANT TO CONSIDER
OUTCOMES AND WHAT SENSITIVITY
ANALYSES ARE BEING RUN?
WHEN A MODEL GENERATES RESULTS
OR OUTCOMES, YOU ALSO WANT TO
LOOK AT OR EXPLORE WHAT MIGHT
HAPPEN IF YOU CHANGE A DIFFERENT
PARAMETER IN THE MODEL.
HOW ROBUST ARE THE OUTCOMES OR
RESULTS FROM THE MODEL THAT
CHANGES IN YOUR ASSUMPTION OR
DATA.
ANOTHER QUESTION IS D
ETERMINISTIC VERSES STOCHASTIC.
YOU FIX DATA OUTPUTS AND TURN
OUT A RESULT, TWO PLUS TWO
EQUALS FOR IS DETERMINISTIC
EQUATION OR MODEL.
STOCHASTIC INCORPORATE
VARIABILITY OR UNCERTAINTY.
SO IT MAY BE TWO MAY BE TWO PLUS
OR MINUS .5, AND YOU HAVE MORE
VARIABILITY, WHAT ACTUALLY
HAPPENS IN REAL LIFE.
YOU CAN DO THE SAME THING TEN
TIMES BUT MAY GET DIFFERENT
RESULTS EACH TIME.
AND HOW DOES THE MODEL PROCEED
IN TIME?
DOES IT PROCEED BY EVENTS OR BY
CERTAIN FIXED PERIODS OF TIME
LIKE FAST FORWARD BY DAYS OR
THIS EVENT IS GOING TO HAPPEN
AND THIS EVENT IS GOING TO SNAP
THERE ARE DIFFERENT WAYS MODELS
CAN WORK.
THESE ARE KEY QUESTIONS TO
ALWAYS ASK.
HERE IS AN EXAMPLE OF AN
AGENT-BASED MODEL LOOKING AT THE
IMPACT OF SUGAR-SWEETENED
BEVERAGE LEVEL ALSO IN THREE
CITIES, REPRESENTING EACH
INDIVIDUAL IN THE CITIES AND THE
PERSON'S FOOD ENVIRONMENT,
REPRESENTING GROCERY STORES,
CORNER STORES, MARKETS.
AND THROUGH THROUGHOUT THE
COURSE OF THE DAY HAD DIFFERENT
AGENTS, COMPUTATIONAL AGENTS
WHICH REPRESENT PEOPLE MOVING
AMONGST FOOD SOURCES, PURCHASING
DIFFERENT TYPES OF DRINKS AND
FOOD.
AND USING THIS WE DEVELOPED
MODELS OF BALTIMORE AND
PHILADELPHIA AND SAN FRANCISCO,
AND THIS IS AN EXAMPLE OF WHEN
YOU DEVELOP THESE DETAILED
MODELS OF POPULATIONS AND
LOCATIONS, YOU CAN ACTUALLY HAVE
A POLICY THAT YIELDS DIFFERENT
RESULTS BECAUSE THESE DIFFERENT
POPULATIONS AND ENVIRONMENTS ARE
HETEROGENEOUS AND DIFFERENT FROM
EACH OTHER.
WE FOUND, FOR INSTANCE, THE
BALTIMORE MODEL SHOWED
INTRODUCING SUGAR-SWEETENED
BEVERAGE LABELS ARE DIFFERENT
EFFECTS COMPARED TO PHILADELPHIA
AND SAN FRANCISCO.
ARE YOU REPRESENTING THE
HETEROGENEITY?
SOMETIMES IT'S USEFUL TO DEVELOP
A GENERAL MODEL, SOMETIMES IT'S
USEFUL TO DEVELOP MORE SPECIFIC
MODELS.
AND HERE'S ANOTHER EXAMPLE OF A
MODEL, THIS IS A DISCRETE EVENT
SIMULATION MODEL REPRESENTING
AGRICULTURAL SUPPLY CHAIN, IN
INDIA, AND THIS PAPER WAS LED BY
DR. SPIKER, WHO IS ONE OF OUR
WORKING GROUP MEMBERS, AND
YOU'LL BE HEARING FROM HER LATER
TODAY.
AND THIS BASICALLY REPRESENTED
THE DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM FOR
DIFFERENT TYPES OF VEGETABLES IN
INDIA, FINDING PARADOXICAL
RESULT.
WE FOUND USING THIS MODFUL YOU
INCREASE AGRICULTURAL
PRODUCTION, YOU ACTUALLY
DECREASE FOOD AVAILABILITY
BECAUSE YOU'RE PUSHING TOO MANY
VEGETABLE PRODUCTS DOWN A SUPPLY
CHAIN THAT CAN'T HANDLE ALL
THOSE VEGETABLE PRODUCTS AND
CHANGES THE SUPPLY CHAIN.
HERE IS A SITUATION WHERE YOU
GET A NON-LINEAR RELATIONSHIP
AND, YOU KNOW, NORMALLY YOU
WOULD EXPECT IF I INCREASE FOOD
PRODUCTION, I INCREASE AMOUNT OF
VEGETABLES I GROW, NASHVILLELY
I'LL BE ABLE TO PROVIDE MORE
--
NATURALLY I'LL PROVIDE MORE FOOD
BUT IF YOU DON'T CONSIDER THE
SUPPLY CHAIN YOU COULD GET IN
TROUBLE.
WE MENTIONED IMPORTANCE OF
CONSERVING SCALES, THIS IS JUST
AN EXAMPLE OF A CONSORTIUM,
MULTI-SCALE MODELING CONSORTIUM,
IMAG, HAVING OUR ANNUAL MEETING
LATER IN JUNE THAT THINKS ABOUT
THE DIFFERENT THINGS LIKE, YOU
KNOW, HOW DO YOU COMBINE
DIFFERENT SCALES AND HOW DO YOU
COMBINE WHAT'S HAPPENING IN
ENVIRONMENT WITH WHAT'S
HAPPENING AT THE BIOLOGICAL
LEVEL AND INDIVIDUAL BEHAVIORAL
LEVEL.
WITH THAT, WE'RE IN THE HOME
STRETCH OF THE PRESENTATION,
WHERE WE WANT TO GO THROUGH SO
MANY PROCESSES WHERE YOU CAN
DEVELOP DIFFERENT TYPES OF
TOP-DOWN AND BOTTOM-UP
APPROACHES.
SO WE WANT TO EMPHASIZE HERE
THESE PROCESSES ARE ITERATIVE.
ESSENTIALLY FOR INSTANCE WITH
TOP-DOWN APPROACHES CAN IDENTIFY
DATASET, CONDUCT ANALYSES WITH
DIFFERENT ALGORITHMS, AND THAT
CAN IDENTIFY ASSOCIATIONS,
INSIGHTS, DETERMINE IMPORTANT
VARIABLES THAT CAN HELP THEN
GUIDE STUDY DESIGN, ADDITIONAL
RELATIONSHIPS TO EXPLORE,
PROVIDES MORE INFORMATION, YOU
CAN UPDATE YOUR ANALYSES.
YOU CAN MOVE IN THIS CIRCULAR
DIRECTION.
WITH BOTTOMS UP APPROACHES YOU
CAN DEVELOP INITIAL SYSTEMS MAP,
INITIAL SYSTEMS MODEL, RUN
EXPERIMENTS, THAT GIVES INSIGHTS
WHERE YOU CAN TEST POLICIES AND
INTERVENTIONS.
YOU CAN SHOW IMPACT OF DIFFERENT
RECOMMENDATIONS, FIND DIFFERENT
TYPES OF DRIVERS, AND THAT CAN
HELP YOU DESIGN AND IMPLEMENT
DIFFERENT TYPES OF CLINICAL
STUDIES, GIVES MORE INSIGHT, YOU
CAN UPDATE MODELS AND MAPS, AND
MOVE IN THIS ITERATIVE CIRCULAR
DIRECTION.
AND IN THIS DIAGRAM, HOW YOU CAN
INTEGRATE TOP-DOWN, TO HELP
IDENTIFY PATTERNS AND TRENDS,
HELP ORGANIZE DATA, IDENTIFY
ASSOCIATIONS, FILL IN MISSING
DATA, THAT CAN HELP DETERMINE
WHICH FACTORS AND COMPONENTS ARE
IMPORTANT IN THE SYSTEM.
THAT CAN THEN HELP GUIDE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF BOTTOMS UP
SYSTEMS MODELS WHERE YOU MAP OUT
RELATIONSHIPS, DEVELOP
MATHEMATICAL RELATIONSHIPS,
MECHANISMS OF REPRESENTATION OF
THE MECHANISMS IN THE SYSTEM,
USE THESE TO RUN SIMULATION
MODELS, AND THAT CAN IDENTIFY
DRIVERS AND OUTCOMES OF
INTEREST, GUIDE FUTURE DATA
COLLECTION, GUIDE STUDY DESIGN,
AND THAT CAN HELP DETERMINE WHAT
DATA IS ACTUALLY MISSING AND
THEN THAT CAN LEAD TO COLLECTING
MORE DATA, WHICH CAN FEED INTO
TOP-DOWN DATA-DRIVEN APPROACHES,
SO ITERATIVE APPROACHES TO
DEVELOPING DIFFERENT TYPES OF
SYSTEMS APPROACHES CAN HELP YOU
MOVE CLOSER AND CLOSER TO REALLY
UNDERSTANDING AND ADDRESSING
THESE COMPLEX SYSTEMS.
SO WITH THAT, I WANTED TO SEGUE
INTO THE WORKSHOP.
FIRST STEP HERE, THE GOAL, IS
I'M DESCRIBING KONDO-INGING
WHAT'S GOING ON, RIPPING OFF
MARIE KONDO
THE GURU.
DETERMINING THE METRICS AND
MEASURES OF THE DOMAINS THAT
ZACH MENTIONED.
WE WANT TO SAY, OKAY, RATHER
THAN APPROACH THESE COMPLEX
SYSTEMS, THAT'S JUST A MESS OF
DIFFERENT VARIABLES AND OUTCOMES
AND MEASURES AND THINGS LIKE
THAT, HOW DO WE START ORGANIZING
THESE THINGS, HOW DO WE START
THINKING ABOUT THESE THINGS IN A
STRUCTURED MANNER.
AGAIN, THE GOAL HERE IS NOT TO
COME UP WITH A COMPREHENSIVE
LIST OF EVERY POSSIBLE METRIC
AND MEASURE.
BECAUSE THOSE THING MAY CHANGE
OVER TIME.
SO THE TYPES OF OUTCOMES THAT WE
CAN -- AND MEASUREMENTS WE CAN
SEE IN FIVE YEARS IS PROBABLY
DIFFERENT FROM WHAT WE HAVE AT
OUR DISPOSAL CURRENTLY, CAN
CHANGE IN 10 YEARS, 20 YEARS.
BETTER TO THINK OF STRUCTURE,
HOW TO ORGANIZE AND MOVE
FORWARD.
THAT'S ONE OF THE KEY GOALS OF
THE WORKSHOP TODAY.
WITH THAT, I WANT TO CREDIT THE
TEAM THAT HELPED PUT TOGETHER
THESE SLIDES AS WELL AS MANY
STUDIES YOU'VE SHOWN, THAT
YOU'VE SEEN IN THIS
PRESENTATION.
AND WITH THAT WE CAN SEGUE TO
THE REST OF THE WORKSHOP.
AS I STOP SHARING MY SCREEN.
OKAY.
SO, WITH THAT, ZACH, I THINK
IT'S TIME FOR US TO MOVE ON TO
THE NEXT SEGMENT OF THE
WORKSHOP, AND, ZACH, YOU
MENTIONED EACH OF THESE
DIFFERENT SESSIONS ARE
ESSENTIALLY GOING TO COVER THE
FOUR DOMAINS OF SUSTAINABILITY.
SO DO YOU WANT TO OFFER SOME
SEGWAY WORDS ON THAT?
>> SURE.
SO, WE'RE GOING TO START WITH
LOOKING AT THE DOMAIN, THE
ENVIRONMENTAL DOMAIN.
AND THIS IS BEING LED BY EMILY
BIRCWHFIELD AND ALEX ROUND.
WE'LL SEGUE INTO ECONOMIC
MEASURES DOMAIN, NUTRITION AND
HEALTH MEASURES DOMAIN, WE'RE
GOING TO FINALIZE WITH SOCIAL
MEASURES DOMAIN.
WE'LL RETURN AND DISCUSS WITH
YOU ALL HOW WE CAN INTEGRATE ALL
OF THOSE DOMAINS TOGETHER AND
REALLY EXPLORE WHAT THE NEXT
STEPS WILL BE FOR THIS GROUP.
WE SHOULD TURN IT OVER TO THE
ENVIRONMENTAL DOMAIN.
>> ALL RIGHT.
HI, EVERYBODY.
I'M ALEX RUANE.
MY TASK WAS WORK WITH EMILY ON
THIS ENVIRONMENTAL DOMAIN AND
I'M GOING TO TRY TO SHARE SOME
SLIDES HERE.
LET ME SEE IF I CAN GET IT ALL
WORKING.
AND I SHOULD SAY UNFORTUNATELY
EMILY CAN'T JOIN.
SHE'S LITERALLY ON TRAVEL AT
PRESENT.
AND HOPEFULLY PEOPLE CAN SEE MY
SCREEN ALL RIGHT.
I'LL TAKE THAT AS A YES.
THE FIRST THING WE WANT TO KIND
OF GET AT HERE WAS THAT THERE'S
THIS QUADRUPLE CHALLENGE FOR THE
AGRICULTURAL SECTOR.
THIS IS KIND OF BY WAY OF
CONTEXT BUT VERY MUCH FITS IN
WITH WHAT BRUCE WAS JUST SAYING
IN TERMS OF THE OVERALL
COMPLEXITY OF THESE SYSTEMS.
SOMEHOW THE NUMBERING GOT THROWN
OFF WITH THE GOOGLE SLIDES BUT
THE IDEA IS THAT THE WORLD IS
ASKING THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
NOW TO SUSTAINABLY INCREASE
PRODUCTION TO PROVIDE HEALTHY
FOOD FOR GROWING AND DEVELOPING
POPULATIONS.
WHILE AT THE SAME TIME ADAPTING
TO CLIMATE CHANGE AND ONGOING
CLIMATE EXTREMES WHILE
MITIGATING EMISSION, NOT
POSSIBLE IF WE CAN'T MAINTAIN
FINANCIAL INCENTIVES FOR
AGRICULTURAL PRACTICE.
EVERY ONE OF THESE CHALLENGES IS
SUBSTANTIAL IN ITS OWN RIGHT BUT
WHEN YOU PUT THEM TOGETHER YOU
GET VERY COMPLEX CHALLENGES, AND
WICKED PROBLEMS, ALL OF THESE
SYSTEMS APPROACHES BECOME REALLY
IMPORTANT TO CONSIDER.
SO, JUST AS A KIND OF BOTTOM
LINE THIS HAS ALREADY BEEN SAID,
THE ENVIRONMENT AFFECTS FOOD,
FOOD AFFECTS THE ENVIRONMENT.
IF WE THINK OF LARGE FRAMEWORKS
IN WHICH WE RECOGNIZE THAT FOOD
IS -- AGRICULTURE IS KIND OF ONE
OF THE BIGGEST MANAGED
ECOSYSTEMS, MANAGED DOMAINS OF
LAND USE, WITH ALL KINDS OF
SOCIAL STRUCTURES AND MAJOR
ECONOMIC IMPACTS, RESPONSIBLE
FOR EMPLOYMENT AND FOOD AND FUEL
AND FIBER AND ALL THESE THINGS
THAT CONNECT, WE REALIZE HOW
INTEGRATED FOOD IS IN ALL THE
PARTS OF OUR LIVES.
IT'S ALSO A MAJOR FOOTPRINT ON
THE PLANET.
AND WHEN WE'RE LOOKING AT
METRICS IN THE ENVIRONMENTAL
SIDE WE'RE LOOKING AT THINGS
LIKE EROSION, SOIL QUALITY,
WATER RESOURCES, OVERALL
TRADEOFFS IN TERMS LAND USE WITH
NATURAL ECOSYSTEMS.
THAT LEADS TO ALL KINDS OF
NEGATIVE FLOWS THAT ARE
SOMETIMES OVERLOOKED, LIKE
HABITAT ENCROACHMENT, THE LOSS
OF ECOSYSTEM COMPLEXITY, EITHER
IN DEGRADATION OF NATURAL LANDS,
ALSO FARM ECOSYSTEM ENVIRONMENTS
AND SOME OF THE BIODIVERSITY
THAT IS PERSISTENT EVEN IN
AGRICULTURE LANDS, BUT CAN BE
THREATENED BY DIFFERENT TYPES OF
PRACTICES.
ANOTHER WAY OF THINKING ABOUT
THE FOOD SYSTEM THROUGH THE
DIAGRAM FROM THE ITCC,
INTERGOVERNMENT PLAN ON CLIMATE
CHANGE, WE HAVE THE IDEA OF FOOD
PRODUCTION, PROCESSING VALUE
CHAINS, MARKETS AND TRADE, AND
THEN DEMAND, CONSUMPTION AND
DIETS WITH LOSS AND WASTE ALL
ALONG THE WAY.
ALL KINDS OF FEEDBACK LOOPS
WITHIN THIS PROCESS.
BUT THE FOOD SYSTEM IS DRIVEN BY
THE CLIMATE SYSTEM.
INTERACTS WITH ECOSYSTEMS, AND
ALL KINDS OF SOCIOECONOMIC
SYSTEM INTERACTIONS THAT CREATE
POSSIBILITY AND ALSO DEMAND FOR
AGRICULTURAL PRACTICE.
AND THE OUTCOME, WE COULD SAY
THAT THE NUMBER ONE OUTCOME THAT
PEOPLE ARE AFTER IS FOOD
SECURITY BUT WE KNOW THERE ARE
MANY OTHER PEOPLE WITH HANDS IN
THIS POT TRYING TO GET ECONOMIC
OUTCOMES AND POLITICAL OUTCOMES,
OTHER THINGS LIKE THAT.
BUT EVEN ALONG THE WAY THERE ARE
EMISSIONS AND IMPACTS.
AND THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
COMPLEX INTERVENTIONS.
YOU CAN THINK OF THIS AS, YOU
KNOW, THE OVERWHELMING NATURE OF
THE FOOD SYSTEM SUGGESTS IT'S
HARD TO HAVE IMPACT BUT I PREFER
TO THINK AS THERE ARE SO MANY
POINTS OF ENTRY IN WHICH WE CAN
ACTUALLY MAKE SOMETHING A LITTLE
BIT BETTER AND ON AGGREGATE GO A
LOT FURTHER.
AS I SAID, OUR CHALLENGE HERE
WAS TO THINK ABOUT THE DIFFERENT
TYPES OF IMPACTS OF FOOD SYSTEMS
ON THE ENVIRONMENT.
AND ALSO HOW THE ENVIRONMENT
AFFECTS FOOD SYSTEMS.
BUT THERE ARE SO MANY METRICS
THAT WE RATHER THAN GIVE A
LAUNDRY LIST DECIDED TO SHARE
JUST THE HIGH LEVEL CATEGORIES.
SO IN TERMS OF THE OVERALL
BALANCE OF LAND COVER AND LAND
USE, PRESSURE, SOIL QUALITY,
HABITAT INTEGRITY, AVAILABILITY
AND BIODIVERSITY, AND DOMAIN OF
WATER RESOURCES INCLUDING
AVAILABILITY, QUALITY, AND, YOU
KNOW, RUNOFF FROM FARM SYSTEMS.
AS WELL AS LARGE SCALE SET OF
GREENHOUSE GAS EXCHANGES ON
AGRICULTURAL LANDS, AS WELL AS
POTENTIAL FOR CARBON STORAGE.
AND OF COURSE OUR MAJOR, MAJOR
AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS WITH HUGE
CLIMATE IMPLICATIONS INCLUDING
METHANE FROM RICE PADDY AND FROM
LIVESTOCK, AS WELL AS JUST HUGE
LAND HOLDINGS THAT COULD
POTENTIALLY BE USED IN SOME KIND
OF CARBON STORAGE.
SO, ONE OF THE THINGS WE WANTED
TO PUT SOME CAUTION ON IS A PUSH
IN RECENT YEARS TO FRAME MANY
ENVIRONMENT IMPACTS ON
NORMALIZED BASIS WHERE YOU MIGHT
USE AN ECONOMIC OUTCOME OR
ECONOMIC INDICATOR AS A
DENOMINATOR, WHAT IS
ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT PERFORM
RETURN, PER INCOME, PER OVERALL
PRODUCTIVITY, AND THAT HAS LED
TO METRICS LIKE, YOU KNOW,
TRYING TO INCREASE EFFICIENCY OF
CROP PER DROP IN IRRIGATION, OSH
WHAT IS THE OVERALL GREENHOUSE
GAS EFFICIENCY OF FARM SYSTEMS,
LOOKING AT LIFE CYCLE ANALYSIS.
WE WANTED TO HIGHLIGHT THE
POTENTIALLY PROBLEMATIC
APPROACH, YOU MIGHT CONVINCE
YOURSELF YOUR ACTIONS INCREASED
EFFICIENCY OF SMALL ELEMENT OF
THE OVERALL SYSTEM, BUT OF
COURSE THE PLANET IS RESPONDING
TO AGGREGATE IMPACT.
IF YOU SAY WE HAVE INCREASED OUR
CROP PER DROP, INCREASED OUR
GREENHOUSE GAS EFFICIENCY FOR
OVERALL NET RETURNS, IF THE
OVERALL TREND IN THAT
DENOMINATOR LIKE TOTAL AMOUNT OF
IRRIGATION OR TOTAL AMOUNT OF
FARM PRODUCT IS GOING UP YOU CAN
OF MOVING IN THE WRONG DIRECTION
ON A LARGER SCALE IN TERMS OF
OVERALL GREENHOUSE GASES, FOR
EXAMPLE, STILL GOING UP.
ALL RIGHT.
SO ONE OF THE THINGS THAT WE
WORKED ON, I WAS ONE OF THE
LEADERS IN IPCC CHAPTER ON
CLIMATE INFORMATION FOR
APPLICATIONS, AND ONE OF THE
THINGS WE DID WAS TRY TO BREAK
DOWN THIS IDEA THAT CLIMATE
CHANGE EQUALS, YOU KNOW, AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE AND RAINFALL SHIFTS.
THAT'S REALLY JUST A SMALL PIECE
OF A MUCH LARGER PUZZLE.
WE'LL NOTE HERE THERE ARE
INDICATORS ON THE CLIMATE SIDE,
IN TERMS OF ENVIRONMENTAL
PRESSURES, THAT ARE, YOU KNOW,
IN THESE MAJOR CATEGORIES OF
HEAT AND COLD OR WET AND DRY,
WINDSTORMS, SNOW AND ICE,
COASTAL, OPEN OCEAN, AND OTHER
CATEGORIES, AND WITHIN THIS WE
HAD ABOUT 35 DIFFERENT
CATEGORIES, DIFFERENT WAYS OF
COUNTING THEM.
BUT WE CAN ALSO LOOK IN THE FOOD
SYSTEM AND SEE THAT CROP SYSTEMS
ARE PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE TO
EXTREME HEAT, RIVER FLOODS,
SHIFTS IN TOTAL AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION.
BUT THIS OVERALL SET OF CLIMATE
RESPONSIVENESS IS QUITE HIGH FOR
FOOD SYSTEMS COMPARED TO OTHER
PARTS OF THE HUMAN AND NATURAL
SYSTEMS.
THERE ARE A LOT OF THINGS TO
LOOK AT HERE.
IN GENERAL, THOSE TYPES OF
MECHANISTIC MODELS WE WERE
HEARING ABOUT FROM BRUCE ARE
ONLY PARTIALLY ABLE TO CAPTURE
ALL OF THESE THINGS.
WE DO, FOR EXAMPLE, I RUN A
PROJECT LOOKING AT CROP MODELS,
AND WE CAN DO, YOU KNOW, AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE AND EXTREME HEAT AND
DROUGHT AND THINGS LIKE THAT.
BUT WE DON'T REALLY HAVE A
MECHANISM TO INCORPORATE HAIL
DAMAGE.
AND SOME OF THE OTHER THINGS
THAT WE KNOW ARE IMPORTANT LIKE
PERMAFROST AND OTHER AREAS ARE
OFTEN NEGLECTED IN MODELS.
WHEN WE'RE ON ASKING THESE
MODELS, IT'S A USE AND ART IN
TERMS OF INTERPRETING WHAT WE
FIND.
THIS IS A DIAGRAM I SHOW IN
ANIMATED WAY TO MAKE IT LESS
CRAZY.
BUT THE IDEA IS IT WOULD BE
REALLY NICE IF WE COULD THINK OF
A SIMPLE LINEAR SYSTEM WHERE
THERE'S SOME KIND OF GEO
PHYSICAL OR BIOLOGICAL HAZARD
LIKE A DROUGHT WHICH AFFECTS
AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION, FARM
OUTPUT IS TRADED THROUGH EXPORT
MARKET OR GLOBAL COMMODITY
EXCHANGES, WITH THE RESULTS
REACHING REGIONAL FOOD MARKETS
AROUND THE WORLD, IN TURN
AFFECTING HOUSEHOLD PURCHASES
AND CONSUMPTION THAT LEADS TO
HEALTH.
THIS WOULD BE A REPLACING NICE
PATTERN, SOMETHING WE MIGHT BE
ABLE TO MODEL.
MANY MODELING ACTIVITIES ARE
TRYING TO FIT ALONG THIS TYPE OF
PATTERN.
WE KNOW THERE ARE THINGS LIKE
GEO POLITICS AND GOVERNMENTS
LEANING ON THE FOOD SYSTEM AND
INTERACTIONS ALL THROUGHOUT.
WE KNOW THIS BECAUSE WE'VE SEEN
JUST IN RECENT YEARS MAJOR,
MAJOR CRISES EMERGE FROM
DIFFERENT PARTS.
HERE IS COVID-19 IN MY RED
OBJECT HERE THAT STARTED OUT IN
THE HEALTH SECTOR, AND BOUNCED
AROUND IN TERMS OF ALL OF THESE
OTHER IMPACTS IN THE FOOD
SYSTEM.
CLIMATE CHANGE OF COURSE STARTED
IN THE GEO PHYSICAL SIDE, HAD
IMPACTS THROUGHOUT.
SOMETHING LIKE UKRAINE CONFLICT
HAS COME OUT OF THIS SIDE AND
LED TO FOOD SECURITY CHALLENGES.
SO TRYING TO REPRESENT THIS
COMPLEX SYSTEM IS WHAT WE'RE
TRYING TO DO WITHIN OUR AG MIP
PROGRAM, AND OTHER GROUPS ARE
TRYING TO BUILD MODELS ON THE
LEVEL OF EACH OF THESE LABELS
BUT TRYING TO CAPTURE ALL OF
THESE INTERACTIONS REQUIRES
COORDINATION, AND AGREEMENT ON
KIND OF INPUT AND OUTPUT
EXPECTATIONS, AND METRICS, AND
FORMATS AND ALL THOSE TIMES --
TYPES OF THINGS.
COME COMMUNITIES ARE MORE
ADVANCED.
THERE'S A STRONG WELL-FUNDED
COMMUNITY LOOKING AT THINGS LIKE
GEOPHYSICS OF CLIMATE CHANGE,
SMALLER COMMUNITIES LOOKING AT
CROP PRODUCTION.
AND BY THE TIME WE GET INTO PINK
AT THIS LEVEL OTHER THAN THE
STUDY WE SAW FROM MARIE, THERE'S
JUST NOT AS MUCH OR AT LEAST
MAYBE I SHOULD SAY NOT AS MUCH
PENETRATING THE KIND OF INTER,
YOU KNOW, INTERSECTORAL AND
INTERDISCIPLINARY.
WE HAVE TO BUILD MODELS TO
HANDLE NORMAL SITUATIONS AND THE
NOT-NORMAL STRESSFUL SITUATIONS.
ONE OF THE LAST POINTS I'LL MAKE
IS THAT THERE'S ALSO A VERY
IMPORTANT ROLE HERE FOR STORY
LINES AND SCENARIOS.
THIS IS ANOTHER WAY OF SAYING
THAT WE KNOW WE CAN'T REPRESENT
EVERY SINGLE PART OF THE COMPLEX
SYSTEM IN SINGLE MODELS OR MODEL
FRAMEWORKS SO THERE'S ALWAYS
GOING TO BE THAT SYSTEMS
BOUNDARY AND OUTSIDE OF THAT
BOUNDARY WE GET INFORMATION FROM
STORY LINES AND SCENARIOS.
THERE'S A MAJOR PROCESS TO
DEVELOP SCENARIOS OF GLOBAL
CLIMATE CHANGE.
ONCE OF THE MOST SENSITIVE
PARAMETERS IS EVOLUTION OF
FARMING SYSTEMS, AND THEN WE ARE
TRYING TO GET THEM TO RECOGNIZE
THAT FUTURE DIETS AND
ALTERNATIVE SOURCES OF PROTEINS
ARE ALSO THE TYPES OF THINGS
THAT COULD DISRUPT AND CHANGE
THE COURSE OF SOCIOECONOMIC AND
GEOPOLITICAL FUTURES.
SO IN GENERAL WE WANT TO
UNDERSTAND THESE COMPLEX SHIFTS
IN THESE MANAGED AGRICULTURAL
SYSTEMS, THINKING ABOUT THE
NATURAL ENVIRONMENT BUT ALSO CAN
WE REPRESENT THE OVERALL SET OF
BIOGEO CHEMICAL FLOWS AROUND
FERTILIZERS AND RUNOFF AND
PESTICIDES AND ALL THOSE OTHER
THINGS.
SO, THIS IS MAYBE AN ADVICE TO
THE COMMUNITY, WE NEED TO ENGAGE
MORE WITH THE SCENARIO AND STORY
LINE GENERATION.
TO SUMMARIZE AND DISCUSSION
POINTS FOR THE NEXT
CONVERSATION, WE'VE SEEN MANY,
MANY METRICS POSSIBLE ACROSS
ASPECTS OF THE FOOD SYSTEMS AND
ENVIRONMENT, AND IN MANY CASES
THEY HAVE THEIR OWN UNIQUE
PATHWAYS AND PROCESSES THAT
CONNECT THEM.
THE COMPLEX FARM SYSTEM MAKES IT
DIFFICULT TO ATTRIBUTE IMPACTS
TO SPECIFIC SOURCES.
THAT'S ANOTHER REASON MODELS CAN
BE HELPFUL BECAUSE YOU CAN
SIMPLIFY AND HOLD MANY THINGS
CONSTANT TO DEVELOP THESE TYPES
OF PATHWAYS.
WE NEED THAT TO UNDERSTAND
NON-LINEARITY, THRESHOLDS.
BUT ALSO WE HAVE TO RECOGNIZE
THESE SCALE PROBLEMS BECAUSE
THERE'S HUGE HETEROGENEITY IN
FOOD SYSTEMS WITH HIGHLY
CONTEXTUAL DECISIONS AROUND
REGIONAL FOOD SYSTEMS.
THERE ARE MANY SCALE CHALLENGES
ON THE BIOPHYSICAL AND
SOCIOECONOMIC OR GEOPOLITICAL
SIDE, AND TIME HORIZONS OF DATA
AND PRO-ACTIVE PLANNING HAVE TO
BE INTENTIONAL OR AT LEAST
RECOGNIZED AS DECISIONS ARE
BEING MADE.
THERE'S HYPOTENSION TO INTEGRATE
MULTIPLE SUSTAINABILITY METRICS
WITH AWARENESS OF SYNERGIES AND
TRADEOFFS.
WE WANT TO TRACK RESPONSE RISK
AND UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES AS
BRUCE POINTED OUT AS REQUIRING
SYSTEMS TYPES APPROACHES.
THIS IS ANOTHER THING NOW A HOT
TOPIC AS PEOPLE THINK ABOUT
ADAPTATION MITIGATION TO CLIMATE
CHANGE, WHAT IS THE RESPONSE
RISK IN THOSE INTERVENTIONS.
WE WANT TO ENGAGE THE STORY LINE
AND SCENARIO PROCESS.
I'LL CLOSE AND PASS BACK TO
BRUCE AND ZACH.
>> ALEX, THANKS FOR THAT.
I WANT TO BE MINDFUL OF OUR
TIME.
WE HAVE A LITTLE BIT OF CATCHING
UP TO DO BUT WE HAVE A FEW
MINUTES TO GET INTO SOME
DISCUSSION AND I THOUGHT THAT I
COULD JUST GET US STARTED OFF
WITH SOMETHING THAT'S BEEN ON MY
MIND IS WHAT IS THE VALUE DO YOU
THINK, GIVEN ALL THE
ENVIRONMENTAL INDICATORS THAT WE
HAVE, WHAT DO YOU THINK THE
VALUE OF DEVELOPING AN INDEX IS
THAT WOULD CAPTURE HOLISTICALLY
OR COMPREHENSIVELY A BUNCH OF
INDICATORS AT THE SAME TIME?
THERE'S A LOT OF DOWN SIDES TO
THAT, RIGHT?
A LOT OF RISKS THAT ARE
PRESENTED IN DEVELOPING INDEX,
BUT THERE MIGHT BE BENEFITS AS
WELL.
COULD YOU SPEAK TO THAT?
>>YEAH.
THANKS FOR THE QUESTION.
INDICES CAN BE PRACTICAL.
IF YOU HAVE A SPECIFIC QUESTION,
YOU PROBABLY WANT TO ZOOM IN ON
A SPECIFIC METRIC.
ONE OF THE WORRIES I HAVE WITH
AGGREGATE TYPE INDICES, WHEN
YOU'RE COMBINING THINGS WITH
DIFFERENT UNITS, PEOPLE ARE
OFTEN -- OFTEN GET THEMSELVES IN
TROUBLE BY TRYING TO NORMALIZE
OR COME UP WITH SOMETHING,
REALIZING MULTI-METRICS INDEX IS
DOMINATED BY ONE OR TWO OF THE
TEN, LET'S SAY.
THE OTHER THING, AS WE'VE SEEN,
SOME OF THESE SYSTEMS ELEMENTS,
I'LL GO BACK TO THE EARLIER
SLIDE THAT TALKED ABOUT THE
INCREASING INEQUALITIES, FOR
EXAMPLE, RIGHT?
IF THERE'S A METRIC THAT ON
AGGREGATE SUGGESTS A BENEFIT BUT
SOMEWHERE INSIDE THAT AGGREGATE
SET OF METRICS IN THAT INDEX
THERE IS A GROUP THAT IS
SUFFERING SUBSTANTIALLY, THAT
CAN BE PROBLEMATIC.
I GUESS MY ADVICE TO SUMMARIZE,
IF YOU'RE TRYING TO GET A
STARTING POINT, YOU KNOW,
RECOGNITION OF HOT SPOTS OR SOME
KIND OF SETS OF CHALLENGES,
THOSE INDICES CAN GET YOU
STARTED.
BUT AS YOU GET CLOSER TO THE
PROBLEM, THE THINGS THAT YOU'RE
AGGREGATING OR CONNECTING TO
COMMON INDICES HAVE TO BE CLOSER
TO EACH OTHER, TO GET -- WE
COULD HAVE A, FOR EXAMPLE,
AGGREGATE INDEX OF SOIL HEALTH,
BUT BY THE TIME YOU'RE COMBINING
SOIL HEALTH WITH ECOSYSTEM
BIODIVERSITY AND SOMETHING ELSE
YOU MAY BE GOING TOO FAR.
>> I WANT TO THANK YOU FOR A
GREAT PRESENTATION, GREAT
OVERVIEW OF REALLY THE WHOLE
TOPIC.
ZACH MENTIONED, I KNOW WE'RE
SHORT ON TIME BUT I WANTED TO
ASK ONE THING THAT DAN ALLUDED
TO IN HIS OPENING PRESENTATION.
VECTORS.
VARIOUS TYPE OF ANIMAL VECTORS,
INSECT VECTORS, AND WE KNOW
ANIMALS CAN AFFECT FOOD
PRODUCTION OR AFFECT THE SOIL,
THE LAND, ET CETERA.
HOW MUCH EFFORTS HAVE THERE BEEN
INTEGRATING ANIMAL POPULATIONS
OR OTHER TYPES OF ORGANISMS INTO
ALL THIS?
>> SO, WE HAVE A WHOLE TEAM IN
AG-NET LOOKING AT PEST AND
MODELING.
ONE COMPONENT, WHEN THERE'S
LET'S SAY A PATHOGEN ON A PLANT
HOW MUCH DAMAGE DOES IT DO?
THE SECOND IS HOW SUSCEPTIBLE IS
A FIELD A PATHOGEN SHOULD IT
ARRIVE?
THIRD IS VECTORS BY WHICH
PATHOGENS ARRIVE, YOU COULD MAKE
THE SAME ARGUMENTS FOR PESTS.
SOME ARE WEATHER BASED, SPORES
BLOWN IN THE WIND.
SOME ARE SUITABILITY BASED
METRICS, A CERTAIN INSECT CAN
ONLY SURVIVE A WINTER THAT IS AT
A CERTAIN TEMPERATURE.
SO THERE ARE A COUPLE DIFFERENT
APPROACHES ON THAT.
I WOULD SAY THAT IT IS ALREADY
MAYBE A SECOND OR THIRD LEVEL
TYPE IMPACT, AND FUNDING
REFLECTS THAT.
WE NEED MORE BECAUSE WHAT WE
HAVE SEEN IS IN REALITY HUGE
AMOUNTS OF CROP LOSS AND OVERALL
FOOD LOSSES CAN COME FROM THESE
VECTORS.
SO WHEN THEY DO HIT, THEY
DOMINATE.
SO WE NEED THAT REQUEST.
>> THANKS, ALEX.
DAN HAS HIS HAND RAISED.
>> TERRIFIC, ALEX.
SPOT ON.
I GUESS MY QUESTION IS
SIMPLISTIC AND NAIVE.
ONE OF THE GOALS IS TO FIGURE
OUT HOW DO WE INTEGRATE THESE
KINDS OF MEASURES, INDICATORS,
ET CETERA, INTO OUR SESSION OF
HEALTH OUTCOMES.
WE HAVE A GLOBAL SURVEILLANCE
PROGRAM, UNITED STATES WE HAVE
NHANES, INTERNATIONALLY
DEMOGRAPHIC AND HEALTH SURVEYS.
THEY ARE RUN AT NATIONAL LEVEL.
IF POSSIBLE TO INTEGRATE THESE
KINDS OF WHAT YOU'RE TALKING
ABOUT INTO THAT KIND OF
SURVEILLANCE SO THAT WE CAN
ACTUALLY MORE ACCURATELY THROUGH
ATTRIBUTION, TEND TO INTEGRATE
THESE THINGS ON THE
IMPLEMENTATION SIDE I THINK,
MORE THAN ON THE SORT OF EARLIER
END.
>> YEAH, AND, YOU KNOW, I THINK
THERE ARE WAYS WE CAN IMPROVE
IT.
IT'S NOT AN EASY SOLUTION.
YOU KNOW, THERE ARE -- AS I
THINK PEOPLE ON THIS CALL LIKELY
KNOW, FOOD SECURITY IS A LOT
MORE THAN JUST THERE BEING A LOT
OF FOOD.
ALL THE SOCIAL SYSTEMS,
CONSUMPTION AND UTILITY AND
OTHER THINGS THAT CAN COME INTO
PLAY.
YOU KNOW, VERY EARLY ON IN MY
CAREER I WENT BACK LOOKING FOR
SOME OF THE FAMOUS FAMINES AND
SAID, OKAY, I'LL FIND THE
DROUGHT AND FAMINE THAT CAUSED
IT.
IT'S NOT THAT SIMPLE.
THERE'S, YOU KNOW, SOME OF THE
FAMINES WERE VERY MUCH
SOCIOECONOMIC, GEO POLITICALLY
CAUSED.
THERE ARE LAGS THAT ARE
DIFFICULT TO UNDERSTAND.
YOU HAVE TO LOOK AT FOOD STOCKS
AND EFFICIENCY OF FOOD AID AND
REACHING THE RIGHT POPULATIONS,
SO MANY THINGS LIKE THAT.
BUT I THINK THE WAY YOU DISSEN
TANGEL IS CREATING LINKAGES FOR
TOP-DOWN AND BOTTOM-UP APPROACH
TO START TO SEE DIFFERENT
ELEMENTS AND THE SENSITIVITY OF
PEOPLE AND OVERALL SYSTEM TO
THOSE ELEMENTS AS THEY CHANGE.
WHAT I REALLY LIKE ABOUT THE
APPROACH THAT MY COMMUNITY IS
WORKING ON IN TERMS OF THIS
BOTTOM-UP MECHANISTIC MODEL IS
THAT IT ALLOWS YOU TO EXPLORE
ALTERNATIVE SYSTEMS.
IT'S NOT JUST SAYING WHAT DO WE
SEE OUT THERE, BUT DO WE
UNDERSTAND SYSTEM WELL ENOUGH WE
CAN CHANGE SOMETHING AND
ANTICIPATE HOW IT WILL GO, THE
SAME CONCEPT OF VIRTUAL
INNOVATION LAB, IF WE CAN BUILD
STRONG ENOUGH MODELS OR DIGITAL
TWINS, WHATEVER YOU CALL THEM,
WE CAN EXPLORE INTERVENTIONS
BEFORE WE ROLL OUT A BILLION
DOLLAR PLAN OR PUT REAL LIVES ON
THE LINE FOR FOOD AID OR SOME
OTHER CAUSE LIKE THAT.
I'M NOT SURE IF I ANSWERED YOUR
QUESTION BUT I DO THINK WE NEED
TO START TO GET A GRIP ON
SENSITIVITY TO PROGRAMMERS TO
TRACE THROUGH OUR OBSERVATIONAL
NETWORKS.
>> I WANT TO REINFORCE THE
NOTION FOOD SECURITY AND
NUTRITION SECURITY IS A SUPPLY
ISSUE.
IT'S NOT THE SAME AS NUTRITION
AND HEALTH.
AND SO WE NEED TO KEEP THAT IN
MIND.
WE'RE TRYING TO MAKE THESE
CONNECTIONS BETWEEN THE FOOD
SYSTEM AND HEALTH AND NEED TO
RECOGNIZE THE IMPORTANCE OF THE
BIOLOGY AND THE HEALTH CONTEXT,
BUT THANK YOU.
>> THANK YOU, ALEX.
AGAIN, THIS IS AN OPEN-ENDED
TOPIC.
WE COULD TALK FOR HOURS, LOTS OF
THINGS TO DISCUSS.
THANK YOU, AGAIN, ALEX, FOR
OPENING UP THE DISCUSSION.
THIS WILL BE A CONTINUING
DISCUSSION.
WITH THAT, TO KEEP TO THE
SCHEDULE WE'LL MOVE TO THE NEXT
SESSION, SO THAT'S GOING TO BE
LED BY JAMES THURLOW, SENIOR
RESEARCH FELLOW, INTERNATIONAL
FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE.
HE WILL BE TALKING ABOUT THE
ECONOMIC DOMAIN.
THANK YOU, JAMES, FOR JOINING
US.
WE'RE LOOKING FORWARD TO YOUR
PRESENTATION.
>> THANKS, BRUCE.
JUST TO SAY I'M STANDING IN FOR
MY COLLEAGUE VALERIA PINERO.
WE'RE BOTH MODELERS, I HEAD UP
ONE GROUP.
OUR LIVES ARE FILLED TRYING TO
PUT THINGS TOGETHER AND MEASURE
TO CAPTURE LONG-TERM CHANGE.
ALL OF THE THINGS YOU'VE
DISCUSSED ARE VERY MUCH ALONG
THE SAME LINES OF THE SAME
THINGS WE'RE CONCERNED ABOUT
HERE.
I WAS GOING TO SHOOT THROUGH
DIMENSIONS AND MAKE A FEW
POINTS.
I'M NOT FULLY AWARE OF THE
ENTIRE AGENDA OF THE WORKING
GROUP SO FORGIVE ME IF I DON'T
QUITE STAY EXACTLY ON THE TOPIC
YOU WOULD HAVE LIKED.
I WANT TO START BY EMPHASIZING,
WE WERE TOUCHING ON IT TALKING
ABOUT FOOD SECURITY VERSUS
NUTRITION, WHAT IS A FOOD SYSTEM
FROM AN ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVE?
AND I THINK WE'VE GOT A COUPLE
METRICS OUT THERE TRYING TO
CAPTURE THE BROADER PERSPECTIVE
OF THE FOOD SYSTEM, ECONOMICS OF
THE FOOD SYSTEM.
WE'VE GOT OUR AGRI FOOD AND GDP
THAT WE USE, THERE'S WORK CHRIS
AND PAT AND OTHERS HAVE DURN ON
FOOD DOLLARS LOOKING FROM THE
DEMAND SIDE AND JUST FOCUSING ON
FOOD.
THE KEY THING HERE IS WE'RE
TRYING TO GO BEYOND AGRICULTURE.
BOTTOM LINE FOOD SYSTEMS
TRANSFORM, AS AGRICULTURE
TRANSFORMS, MORE AND MORE OF THE
ACTIVITY IN THE FOOD SYSTEM,
AGRI FOOD SYSTEM IS HAPPENING
OFF THE FARM.
ON THE RIGHT-HAND SIDE YOU CAN
SEE A REPRESENTATION, THE
AGRIFOOD MET WICK WE USE AT OF
IT IFPRI, WE NEED ADD
RESTAURANTS, HOTELS, INPUT
SUPPLIERS, FERTILIZER PROVIDERS,
AND MEASURE USING AVAILABLE
STATISTICS.
THIS IS A SNAPSHOT FOR 10 20*
19N LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES
AGRICULTURE DOMINATES, BUT
OTHERS FARM COMPONENTS MAKE UP A
SIGNIFICANT PART OF THAT LINK
BETWEEN WHERE FOOD IS INTRODUCED
AND WHETHER IT IS SUPPLIED AND
EVENTUALLY CONSUMED, THE VALUE
OF THE FOOD CONSUMED BY THE
FINAL HOUSEHOLD OR CONSUMER.
AGRICULTURE BECOMES SMALLER AS
COUNTRIES DEVELOPED, YOU CAN SEE
THE AGRI FOOD SYSTEM IS OFF THE
FARM.
WE HAVE THE METRICS TO TRACK,
WHETHER OUR METRICS OR CHRIS AND
PAT'S METRICS, WE'RE GETTING A
BETTER INDICATION OF OVERAL
COMPLEXITY AND PARTS THAT MAKE
UP THE AGRIFOOD FOOD SYSTEM.
WHEN I MENTION NUTRITION I'M
TALKING ABOUT DIETS, WE HAVE A
WHOLE NUTRITION GROUP HERE AT
IFPRI, THIS ALLOWS US TO MAKE A
TIGHTER LINK.
AND ALLOWS US TO THINK ABOUT
CLIMATE.
WE TALK ABOUT RISKS TO
AGRICULTURE BUT RISKS TO THE
FOOD SYSTEM REQUIRE US TO THINK
ABOUT WHAT'S HAPPENING BEYOND
THE FARM AS WELL, TO KEY
COMPONENTS.
I'LL COME BACK TO THAT IN A
SECOND.
THINKING ABOUT FOOD
AVAILABILITY, FIRST I MENTION
FOOD SECURITY.
THERE'S A LOT OF WORK AROUND
AVAILABILITY AND PRICES.
TYPICAL METRICS AT IFPRI, CROP
YIELDS, CLIMATE CHANGE, FLOOD
SUPPLY, DOMESTIC AND NET
IMPORTS, THINKING ABOUT FOOD
RISKS, RISKS TO THE SYSTEM,
MAYBE INPUT DEPENDENCY IS A KEY
INDICATOR.
BECAUSE OF UKRAINE IN THE LAST
YEAR, A LOT OF ATTENTION, AND
INFLATION, ATTENTION ON FOOD
PRICE INDICES AFFECTING
CONSUMERS AND ABILITY TO PUSH
FOODS.
ALEX TALKED ABOUT MODELS WITH
THE AG NETWORK, BIOPHYSICAL
TRACKING PRODUCTIVITY, MOST
RECENT WORK HERE AT IFPRI,
TRANSLATING TO CROP YIELDS.
WE'VE GOT THE IMPACT MODEL,
GLOBAL MULTI-MARKET, ALLOWS US
TO CONNECT TO CONSUMER DEMAND,
PRICES AT GLOBAL COUNTRY,
SUBNATIONAL SCALES, SO ON.
THE KEY THING WITH THESE MODELS
AND METRICS THEY ARE FOCUSING ON
JUST A PARTICULAR ASPECT OF THE
FOOD SYSTEM, FOOD SUPPLY, FOOD
PRICES.
BUT THESE KINDS OF MODELS AND
TOOLS ALLOW US TO DIG DEEPLY
INTO INDIVIDUAL PRODUCTS, FAR
MORE DEEPLY THAN MOST OTHER
MODELS CAN.
TYPICALLY WHEN IT COMES TO FOOD
SECURITY THESE KIND OF MODELS
PERHAPS TYPICALLY, FORGIVE ME IF
I'M WRONG ABOUT YOUR MODELS,
TYPICALLY STOP TRACKING NATIONAL
CALORIE AVAILABILITY OR
COUNTING, A LOT OF WORK COUNTING
MICRONUTRIENTS, NOT QUITE DIE
ELSE BUT COUNTING MICRONUTRIENT
AVAILABILITY AND AT THE NATIONAL
LEVEL TYPICALLY.
HOW DO WE GET DOWN TO THE
HOUSEHOLD LEVEL, TALK ABOUT FOOD
ACCESS, FOOD AVAILABILITY,
AFFORDABILITY AND STABILITY?
WE'RE MOVING INTO TRADITIONAL
ECONOMIC MECHANISMS, HOW
HOUSEHOLDS EARN INCOMES, HOW
THEY CHOOSE TO SPEND INCOMES ON
FOOD.
INDICATORS LIKE PER CAPITA
INCOME, FOOD CONSUMPTION, THESE
ARE MORE MACRO AGGREGATE LEVEL
INDICATORS, ONCE WE GET DOWN TO
THE HOUSEHOLD LEVEL WE TRACK
POVERTY, FOOD SECURITY,
PREVALENCE OF UNDERNOURISHMENT
AND AND DIET QUALITY.
WE'RE WORRIED ABOUT FOOD
CONSUMPTION VARIABILITY.
THAT'S WHERE WE START TO GET
LINK TO CLIMATE.
KINDS OF MODELS WE NEED AT THIS
LEVEL ARE FAR MORE TYPICALLY
ECONOMY-WIDE BECAUSE WE NEED TO
LOOK AT HOUSEHOLD INCOME, NOT
ALL INCOMES COME FROM THE FARM.
MOST DON'T.
SO WE NEED TO THINK BROADLY
ABOUT ECONOMIC ACTIVITY AND
ECONOMY, AND THE BROADER FARM
COMPONENTS OF THE AGRIFOOD
SYSTEM, WE'VE GOT TOOLS, LINKED
TO HOUSEHOLD MICROSIMULATION,
HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS, CAN TRACK
POVERTY AND FOOD SECURITY AND SO
ON.
THE CLIMATE LINK WITH THIS AREA
OF WORK IS TYPICALLY AROUND
LOOKING AT CLIMATE-DRIVEN
VARIABILITY, WE TALKED ABOUT
EXTREME EVENTS, SHOCKS AND SO
ON.
CAPTURING THOSE IMPACTS BEYOND
THE FARM.
YOU CAN SEE ONE LITTLE EXAMPLE
OF THE FRAMEWORK FOR LOOKING AT
NOT JUST IMPACTS OF CLIMATE ON
AGRICULTURE BUT ENERGY AND
AGRICULTURE, YOU CAN SEE ONE
RECENT EXAMPLE WHERE WE'RE
LOOKING AT WHAT DOES CLIMATE
VARIABILITY MEAN IN THE 2040s
UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE
PROJECTIONS, M.I.T.
PROBABILISTIC MODEL.
YOU CAN SEE THE BLUE LINE IS 1.5
CELSIUS SCENARIO, YOU CAN SEE A
WIDE RANGE FROM CLIMATE
VARIABILITY.
CLIMATE CHANGE, REFERENCE
SCENARIO IS WITHOUT GLOBAL
ACTION REALLY GOING TO WORSEN
POVERTY OVER TIME.
AND THEN JUST LOOKING AT THE
BOTTOM GRAPH, SAME APPROACH, THE
BLUE LINE IS IMPACT ON
AGRICULTURE WHICH CLEARLY CAUSE
LOSS IN NATIONAL GDP RELATIVE TO
NO CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO,
100%.
BUT ONCE WE BRING IN ROAD
INFRASTRUCTURE FOR EXAMPLE AND
DAMAGES TO HYDROPOWER AND
FLOODING AND SEA LEVEL RISE,
OTHER FACTORS, THOSE IMPACTS GET
MUCH LARGER, IN MOZAMBIQUE ROAD
DAMAGE WITH OUTWEIGH DIRECT
IMPACT ON AGRICULTURE AND BE
MORE DETRIMENTAL.
AND LINKS TO HEALTH, I'M NOT
TALKING ABOUT NUTRITION, I'M
TALKING ABOUT HEALTH.
IT'S REALLY THROUGH DIET.
FROM AN ECONOMICS PERSPECTIVE
THE STRUCTURAL MODELERS CAN GET
YOU AS AS FAR AS DIET QUALITY
AND AFTER THAT IT'S ALL REDUCED
FORM STATISTICAL RELATIONSHIPS
WITHOUT STRONG UNDERSTANDING AS
BRUCE WAS SAYING ON THE SORT OF
MECHANISMS AT PLAY.
ONE QUICK THING ON DIET COST,
THERE'S A COTTAGE INDUSTRY ABOUT
MEASURING COST OF A HEALTHY
DIET, MUCH BETTER PEOPLE TO
SPEAK ABOUT THIS LIKE WILL
MASTERS AND OTHERS WHO CAN TALK
ABOUT MEASURING COST OF
REFERENCE HEALTHY DIET.
WE DO THE SAME, WE'VE GOT
MULTIPLE GROUPS DOING THE SAME
AT IFPRI.
WE FOUND AS YOU WORK IN THE
POOREST PARTS OF THE WORLD IN
MALAWI 95% CAN'T AFFORD IT, NOT
A GOOD METRIC FOR ADVISING
POLICY BECAUSE SO MANY PEOPLE
DON'T HAVE INCOME TO AFFORD THE
DIET.
SOMETHING WE'RE PUSHING FOR IS
MOVING TO THE DIET GAP MEASURE
SO YOU CAN SHOW YOU MAY NOT
QUITE ALLOW HOUSEHOLDS TO
ACHIEVE HEALTHY DIET BUT MOVING
CLOSER, LIKE A POVERTY GAP
MEASURE.
THAT'S WHERE WE NEED TO BE GOING
THINKING ABOUT DIETS.
AS I SAID WE CAN'T TAKE IT MUCH
PAST DIETS WHEN IT COMES TO
LINKING TO HEALTH AND NUTRITION
BUT THIS IS SOMETHING THAT WE
CAN MOVE TOWARDS IN THE FUTURE.
ONE OTHER THING, I'VE ADDED THIS
SLIDE, WE TALKED ABOUT HOW DO WE
WEIGH OFF THE TRADEOFFS.
ALL OF THESE OUTCOMES, ECONOMIC
OUTCOMES INTERCONNECT, JOBS
AFFECT POVERTY, AGRI FOOD SYSTEM
GDP, INCOME, IS AFFECTING
INCOMES FOR INDIVIDUAL
HOUSEHOLDS AND THEIR POVERTY
STATUS.
WE'RE FINDING THIS TIME AND
AGAIN, COUNTRY AFTER COUNTRY,
THESE TRADEOFFS WITH
UNAVOIDABLE.
WE CAN USE TOOLS TO MEASURE THE
SIZE OF THOSE TRADEOFFS.
THERE'S ONE EXAMPLE ON THE
RIGHT-HAND SIDE WE DID FOR THE
LONDON GOVERNMENT LOOK TOCK
DECIDE WHICH PRODUCTS TO INVEST
IN, WHICH VALUE CHAINS.
THESE ARE DIFFERENT OUTCOMES,
WHICH VALUE CHAIN'S GROWTH IS
MOST EFFECTIVE AND ACHIEVING
WHICH OUTCOMES?
BECAUSE YOU'RE GOOD AT REDUCING
POVERTY DOESN'T MEAN YOU'RE MOST
EFFECTIVE AT IMPROVING DIET
QUALITY.
TOOLS ARE USEFUL FOR US NOT ONLY
ASSESSING WHAT THE TRADEOFFS ARE
BUT HELPING MAKE DECISIONS.
LET ME END BY SAYING I'VE GONE
THROUGH A BUNCH OF ECONOMIC
CONSIDERATIONS, SUGGESTED THAT
WE DO NEED TO ACKNOWLEDGE THE
FACT IN OUR METRICS AND METHODS
THAT FOOD SYSTEMS GO BEYOND THE
FARM.
THAT CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS FOOD
SYSTEMS DIRECTLY THROUGH CROP
MODELS, IT'S IMPORTANT TO LOOK
AT IMPACTS DIRECTLY ON
AGRICULTURE BUT INDIRECT IMPACTS
THROUGH THE ROAD NETWORKS,
TRANSPORT COSTS, SORT OF WHAT'S
AFFECTING HOUSEHOLD INCOMES,
AFFECTING FOOD SYSTEMS
INDIRECTLY.
CLIMATE VARIABILITY IS A MAJOR
DIE MENTION OF FOOD INSECURITY
BUT ONE THAT DOESN'T GET ENOUGH
ATTENTION.
WE NEED TO LOOK AT STABILITY,
NOT JUST AVAILABILITY AND
ACCESS.
DIETS ARE A VERY EFFECTIVE
INTERSECTION OF CLIMATE FOOD
SYSTEMS AND NUTRITION, PREACHING
TO THE CHOIR WHEN I SAY THAT BUT
BOTTOM LINE WE'RE NOT GOING TO
COME UP WITH ANY SINGLE
INDICATOR THAT'S GOING TO
CAPTURE ALL THESE DIMENSIONS
I'VE TALKED ABOUT.
THERE ARE TWO THAT WE'RE
GRAVITATING TOWARDS, ONE IS
BROADER ACRIFOOD GDP MEASURE,
KEY THING IT ALLOWS YOU TO
CAPTURE AVAILABILITY AND
VARIABILITY, FORCES US TO THINK
WHAT'S HAPPENING BEYOND THE
FARM.
SECOND IS AROUND DIET ADEQUACY,
OUTCOMES OF MANY DRIVERS, SO
THESE ARE THE TWO WE'RE FOCUSING
IN ON IN SOME OF OUR RESEARCH IN
THE AREAS YOU'RE WORKING IN BUT
WE RECOGNIZE MUCH IS MISSING.
THANKS VERY MUCH.
>> THANK YOU, JAMES.
EXCELLENT PRESENTATION.
A GREAT OVERVIEW OF ALL OF THE
DIFFERENT TYPES OF ECONOMIC
CONSIDERATIONS.
ONE INITIAL QUESTION THAT CAME
TO MIND, OPERATIONAL ISSUES, SO
REPRESENTING, YOU KNOW, THE
DETAILS OF THE OPERATIONS THAT
IN TURN WILL CONNECT THESE
DIFFERENT SCALES, HOW MUCH OF
THAT TYPE OF WORK IS BEING DONE,
RANGING FROM SUPPLY CHAINS TO
DIFFERENT OTHER MORE SPECIFIC
PROCESSES OR MECHANISMS, BECAUSE
ONE OF THE CHALLENGES YOU'RE
OPERATING AT THE ECONOMIC SCALE
MANY TIMES, AND SORT OF THESE
ARE BROAD IMPACTS BUT THEN HOW
DO YOU START DIALING DOWN TO THE
INDIVIDUAL SCALE OR INDIVIDUAL
LEVEL?
>> IT'S A GREAT QUESTION.
IT'S SOMETHING WE SPEND MOST OF
OUR TIME BANGING OUR HEADS
AGAINST.
TYPICAL TOOLS WE USE, THAT ALEX
WAS TALKING ABOUT, CONSORTIUM
TYPE MODELS, ECONOMY-WIDE
MODELS.
VERY STRUCTURAL, BETWEEN NET
NETWORK, NEAR AGENT-BASED.
THE ADVANTAGES IS ECONOMY-WIDE
MODELS, THEY DO CAPTURE ALL OF
THESE STRUCTURAL LINKAGES FROM
PRODUCTION THROUGH SUPPLY, VALUE
CHAINS WITHIN THE COUNTRY AND
THE WORKERS AND PEOPLE WHO ARE
DEPENDENT ON THEM.
OF COURSE IT COMES WITH -- AND
IT'S EXTREMELY USEFUL BECAUSE
IT'S A DETERMINISTIC MODEL.
PEOPLE CALL IT A BLACK BOX BUT
THERE ARE WORSE BLACK BOXES TO
ADVISE POLICY WITH.
OF COURSE, THERE'S A DOWN SIDE.
THE HIGHER THE LEVEL WE WANT TO
LOOK AT ECONOMY FROM, YOU KNOW,
MORE ASSUMPTIONS WE HAVE TO
MAKE, LESS GRANULAR THE DATA IS
WE CAN WORK WITH AND SO ON.
SO I THINK MY FEELING IS WE'VE
GOT A LOT TO BUILD ON IN
ECONOMICS, TO THINK ABOUT THE
STRUCTURAL RELATIONSHIPS,
DIFFERENT PARTS OF THE ECONOMY,
PRODUCERS THROUGH TO HOUSEHOLDS
AND CONSUMERS.
THERE'S GOING TO BE NO SINGLE
MODEL THAT'S GOING TO TELL THE
WHOLE STORY.
SO WE NEED TO WORK TOGETHER AS
WE ALWAYS DO WITH THE VALUE
CHAIN SPECIALISTS DIGGING DEEPLY
INTO THE MECHANISMS AT PLAY AND
PARTICULAR PART OF THE COUNTRY
OR PARTICULAR SECTOR WITHIN THE
ECONOMY.
AND SO WE HAVE TO SORT OF MERGE
THE TWO TOGETHER.
WE HAVE TO -- BUT IT CREATES A
CHALLENGE.
IF YOU CAN SETTLE ON KEY
METRICS, EVERYONE AGREES THEY
ARE CONCERNED WITH, IT BECOMES A
USEFUL WAY OF BUILDING
COLLABORATION AND FOCUSING THE
RESEARCH TOWARDS A COMMON GOAL.
SO I REALLY SUPPORT THE IDEA OF
FINDING THE METRICS THAT
RESONATE WITH EVERYONE, EVEN IF
THEY DON'T SATISFY EVERYONE
ENTIRELY, AND THAT BECOMES A
REAL FRAMING DEVICE FOR
COLLABORATION.
>> THANKS.
>> I WAS GOING TO JUMP IN VERY
BRIEFLY.
AND, JAMES, THANKS FOR THAT
PRESENTATION.
EXCELLENT.
I WANTED TO ENCOURAGE PEOPLE WHO
ARE JOINING US THAT IF YOU PUT
YOUR HAND UP, YOUR ZOOM HAND,
WE'LL BE SURE TO ALLOW YOU TO
ASK JAMES A QUESTION, THAT GOES
FOR ALL THE SPEAKERS TODAY.
WITH SOME WORK THAT WE DO IN THE
UNITED STATES, WHICH IS REALLY
WHERE MY WORK, I'M MOST
FAMILIAR, WE'RE INTERESTED IN
THIS RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FOOD
COSTS, I SHOULD SAY DIET COST,
AND DIET QUALITY, RIGHT?
WHAT WE SEE WHEN WE LOOK AT, FOR
EXAMPLE, NHANES DATA WE SEE AS
PEOPLE ARE INCREASING IN THEIR
DIET QUALITY, THEY END UP
SPENDING MORE ON THEIR FOOD, AND
THEN THE CONCLUSION IS OFTEN
REACHED THAT A HIGHER QUALITY
DIET IS MORE EXPENSIVE.
ALSO WHAT WE CAN SEE FROM THE
DATA IS THIS IS MORE
THEORETICAL, THAT WE CAN
CONSTRUCT A HEALTHY DIET THAT'S
ALSO AFFORDABLE, RIGHT?
I'M THINKING ABOUT THE THRIFTY
FOOD PLAN AT USDA.
SO THOSE TWO CONCEPTS ARE
OPPOSED, RIGHT?
ONE IS ACTUAL, WHAT PEOPLE ARE
ACTUALLY EATING AND PAYING.
THE OTHER IS THEORETICALLY
WHAT'S POSSIBLE.
AND WE'RE OFTEN STRANGE TO MAKE
CONCLUSIONS BASED ON WHAT SEEMS
LIKE INCOMPATIBLE RESULTS, I
DON'T KNOW IF YOU COULD SAY
ANYTHING ABOUT HOW BEST DO YOU
THINK WE SHOULD BE THINKING
ABOUT THAT AND APPROACHING THAT.
>> THERE ARE MUCH BETTER PEOPLE
TO ANSWER SOME QUESTIONS YOU'RE
RAISING.
BUT TO MY MIND, I THINK YOU'RE
ABSOLUTELY RIGHT.
I THINK WE'VE GOT THESE BIG
GLOBAL DIETS WITH QUITE A LARGE
COMPONENT, ASSIGNED TO PROTEIN
ANIMAL-SOURCE FOODS, THEY ARE
MORE EXPENSIVE.
IT DOES RAISE THE COST OF FOOD
FOR MANY HOUSEHOLDS PARTICULARLY
IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES WHERE
THEY ARE SO FAR FROM WHAT COULD
BE A HEALTHY DIET.
WHERE WE NEED TO MOVE TO THOUGH,
AND SO WE CAN CONSTRUCT A
CHEAPER DIET, CHEAPER HEALTHY
DIET BUT OFTEN THAT REQUIRES A
SHIFT IN CONSUMER PREFERENCES.
WE HAVE WAYS TO NUDGE CONSUMER
BEHAVIOR.
BUT I THINK WE NEED TO BE
REALISTIC ABOUT WHAT IS ACTUALLY
POSSIBLE AND SO ON.
SO, THIS IDEA WE'RE GOING TO
ELIMINATE ANIMAL-BASED DIET IS
PROBABLY UNREALISTIC ACROSS THE
GLOBE.
THERE WILL BE MOMENTS OF SUCCESS
AND MOVEMENTS IN THE RIGHT
DIRECTION BUT PROBABLY
UNREALISTIC, PARTICULARLY IN
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES.
I THINK AS A FIELD WE CAN
INCREASINGLY RECOGNIZE THAT
PEOPLE ALREADY ARE REVEALING
PREFERENCE, GIVEN LOCAL FOOD
ENVIRONMENT, PRICES, TIMES OF
FOOD AVAILABLE.
RATHER THAN COMING UP WITH THIS
IS THE SINGLE DIET THAT WE NEED
ALL HOUSEHOLDS TO STRIVE TOWARDS
WE CAN TAKE AS A STARTING POINT
THE DIETS THAT HOUSEHOLDS
ALREADY HAVE, INADEQUATE, BUT
USE THAT AS A STARTING POINT TO
FIND THEM THE SHORTEST DISTANCE
TO THE DIET THAT PERHAPS
SATISFIES MICRONUTRIENT
REQUIREMENTS AND OTHER THINGS.
THE SHORTEST FROM WHERE THEY
CURRENTLY ARE.
THERE ARE EFFORTS UNDERWAY TO
COME UP WITH HOUSEHOLD-SPECIFIC
HEALTHY DIETS CLOSEES TO WHERE
THEY ARE RIGHT NOW.
IF WE MOVE THE FIELD IN THAT
DIRECTION, I THINK WE ARE
PROBABLY MOST LIKELY SORT OF
CLOSER TO OUR GOAL THAN HAVING
THESE INCREDIBLY EXPENSIVE
DIETS.
THERE'S MORE WORK THAT NEEDS TO
BE DONE THERE, AND IT'S GOING TO
BE A LOT MORE POLITICALLY EASIER
TO SELL TO A DIVERSE GLOBAL
POPULATION THAN EAT LANCET 1.
>> I WANT TO GIVE DAN AN
OPPORTUNITY TO ASK A QUESTION.
>> GREAT PRESENTATION.
THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR STEPPING
IN AND BEING INVOLVED.
WE VERY MUCH APPRECIATE THAT.
WE HAD A PRESENTATION AT THE
LAST WORKSHOP FOCUSING ON THE
ECONOMICS FROM A PRODUCER
PRODUCTION POINT OF VIEW.
WE ALSO HAD THE WORKING GROUP 2
FOCUSED ON DIETARY PATTERNS, IN
FACT ON SOME ISSUES YOU JUST
RAISED.
I'M WONDERING IF FOLKS -- I SAW
ONE ON THE CALL, AND I THINK
SYLVIA FROM WORKING GROUP 2, IF
ANY PEOPLE FROM WORKING GROUPS 2
OR 3 WOULD LIKE TO COMMENT ABOUT
THE CONTENT, YOU KNOW, PUTTING
WHAT WE'VE HEARD TODAY INTO
CONTEXT OF WHAT YOU GUYS ARE
DOING?
NO?
I THINK IT'S REALLY IMPORTANT TO
NOTE THAT THE ULTIMATE GOAL HERE
IS TO AFFECT CHANGE AND
BEHAVIOR, WITH REGARD TO CHOICES
OF PEOPLE MAKE ON THE PRODUCTION
SIDE AND YOUR POINT ABOUT THE
COMPREHENSIVE FOOD SYSTEM IS
IMPORTANT.
AND THE CONSUMER SIDE.
AND THIS ISSUE OF DIET QUALITY,
AGAIN, IS NOT SUFFICIENT TO GET
US WHERE WE NEED TO GO WITH
REGARD TO PROGRAMS, POLICIES,
INTERVENTIONS TO ADDRESS DIET
AND HEALTH.
WE REALLY NEED TO INTEGRATE THE
CONTRIBUTION OF THE HEALTH
CONTEXT.
HAVE YOU GUYS BEEN DEALING --
I'VE DONE SOME WORK WITH JEFF
LEROY AND OTHER FOLKS AT IFPRI
ABOUT SPECIFIC HEALTH ISSUES OF
CONCERN.
HAVE YOU INTEGRATED THOSE THINGS
INTO YOUR ANALYSES?
>> GREAT QUESTION.
JEFF IS A REAL NUTRITIONIST, I'M
CERTAINLY NOT.
I'M A DEVELOPMENT ECONOMIST, NOT
EVEN AGRICULTURAL ECONOMIST.
NUTRITION GOAL WOULD BE TO GET
TO STUNTING AND WASTING AND
REPORT ON SOMETHING CLOSER TO
NUTRITION.
LET ME SAY I DIDN'T EVEN MENTION
EFFECT OF HEAT STRESS AND LABOR,
I SHOULD HAVE EMPHASIZED THAT.
THERE'S A LOT OF INTERESTING
WORK LOOKING AT THE IMPACT
CHANNEL.
>> IN THE SENSE OF THE WORK
FORCE, IN ADDITION TO PREGNANCY
OUTCOMES.
>> EXTREME HEAT, YES, EXACTLY.
AFFECTING PEOPLE WORKING IN
CONSTRUCTION, AGRICULTURE, SO
ON.
IN TERMS OF STUNTING AND WASTING
WE DO -- THERE ARE MODELS,
ECONOMIC MODELS THAT WILL TELL
YOU THIS MUCH INCREASE IN
AGRICULTURE PRODUCTION WILL LEAD
TO THIS MUCH REDUCTION IN
STUNTING AND WASTING.
THERE'S A LOT OF STRUCTURE UNTIL
THAT FINAL STEP WHERE THEY GET
TO THE STUNTING AND WASTING.
THAT'S WHEN WE JUMP TO
STATISTICAL RELATIONSHIPS AND
SAY -- WASH OUR HANDS OF
UNDERSTANDING THE MECHANISM
BECAUSE I DON'T THINK WE HAVE A
STRONG, PLEASE CORRECT ME IF I'M
WRONG, A STRONG ENOUGH ECONOMIC
THEORY UNDERPINNING THE FINAL
DRIVERS OF STUNTING AND WASTING
TO ALLOW US TO MODEL THE
STRUCTURAL RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN
THE ECONOMY AND THOSE PARTICULAR
OUTCOMES.
SO IT'S WHY THE STRUCTURAL
MODELERS AT IFPRI, LIKE ME, STOP
AT DIETS.
THAT WAS A RECOMMENDATION FROM
JEFF'S PREVIOUS BOSS MARIE WHO
SAID DIET QUALITY, HEALTHY
DIETS, HEALTHY AND SUSTAINABLE
DIETS IS PROBABLY AS FAR AS YOU
SHOULD TRY AND PUSH OUR
PARTICULAR RESEARCH AGENDA.
YEAH.
>> I'VE HAD THAT CONVERSATION
WITH MARIE AS WELL.
I'M WONDERING, I SAW NANCY KREBS
FROM WORKING GROUP 1.
PART OF THE ISSUE WHEN YOU TAKE
ISSUES LIKE STUNTING WHICH IS A
MULTI-DIMENSIONAL HEALTH ISSUE,
WE DON'T DEAL WITH IT AS
MULTI-DIMENSIONAL BUT A GLOBAL
TARGET AND MAKE ASSUMPTIONS
ABOUT THE ROLE OF DIET AND
NUTRITION, AND THAT'S AS FAR AS
WE GO, BUT WE DON'T INTEGRATE
THE COMPLEXITY OF THE BIOLOGY OF
THESE DISEASES INTO THIS
APPROACH.
NANCY, ARE YOU THERE?
>> I AM.
I WAS ACTUALLY AGREEING WITH
JAMES ON STOPPING AT MAYBE WITH
DIETS AND MARIA'S RECOMMENDATION
BECAUSE WE DON'T EXACTLY KNOW
WHAT FIXES STUNTING EXCEPT
ECONOMIC STATUS AND BETTER
ENVIRONMENTS, REDUCED POVERTY,
SOMEHOW MAKE STUNTING BETTER.
SO IT'S VERY COMPLEX, AS DAN IS
SAYING.
>> THANKS, NANCY.
THANKS, DAN.
AND AS DAN AND ZACH MENTIONED,
WE WELCOME QUESTIONS.
SO PLEASE FEEL FREE TO RAISE
YOUR HAND OR JUMP INTO THE
CONVERSATION.
BUT WE HAVE PLENTY OF THINGS TO
ASK JAMES AND HIS EXPERTISE.
FEEL FREE TO RAISE YOUR HAND.
NANCY, YOU'VE GOT YOUR HAND
RAISED.
>> YES, THANK YOU.
THIS IS A VERY NAIVE QUESTION.
SO FASCINATING AND OUT OF MY
LANE.
START WITH THAT.
JAMES, IN YOUR MODELS ABOUT
SHOWING THE DIFFERENT OUTSIDE OF
AGRICULTURE ITSELF, THE
PRODUCTION, SO IN HIGH-INCOME
COUNTRIES, IT'S MUCH MORE ABOUT
THE PROCESS, ALL THE MIDDLEMEN,
IF YOU WILL, WHERE THE COST IS
ASSOCIATED AND PROFITS, AND
SOMEBODY MENTIONED THRIFTY FOOD
PLAN, WHICH IMPLIES MORE COOKING
AND HOME-BASED KINDS OF
PROCESSES.
AND THAT'S NOT WHERE CONSUMER
BEHAVIOR IS.
BUT I WONDERED IF YOUR MODELS IF
YOU'RE THINKING ABOUT IMPACT OF
MORE LOCALLY OR REGIONAL
PRODUCTION, VERSUS THE MORE
CENTRALIZED PROCESSES WE HAVE
NOW, AND HOW THAT COULD IMPACT
THOSE COSTS, THOSE BAR GRAPHS
YOU SHOWED AT THE DIFFERENT
COMPONENTS OF THE EXPENSE OF
FOODS, AND WOULD THAT MAKE
HEALTHIER DIETS -- WOULD CHANGES
MAKE HEALTHIER DIETS MORE
ACCESSIBLE TO MORE PEOPLE?
>> JUST TO SAY I'M NEVER IN MY
LANE, EVER, RIGHT? I'M A MASTER
OF NOTHING.
NO, I THINK THE -- WHAT'S REALLY
INTERESTING ABOUT THE FOOD
SYSTEM IN THE HIGH INCOME GROUP,
I'M GOING TO QUICKLY SHARE THAT,
IF I CAN.
WHAT'S INTERESTING ABOUT THESE
HIGH INCOME GROUPS ACTUALLY IF
YOU LOOK, IT'S FOOD SERVICES
THAT REALLY INCREASE.
THOSE ARE EATING OUT, PREPARED
MEALS, OUTSIDE OF THE HOME.
THAT'S RESTAURANTS, THAT'S
HOTELS, MAINLY RESTAURANTS AND
FAST FOOD AND OTHER THINGS LIKE
THAT.
AND SO REALLY THE TRADEOFF THERE
IN LOWER INCOME COUNTRIES
THERE'S A LOT LESS EATING OUT, A
LOT MORE HOME COOKING.
ONE REASON PEOPLE EAT OUT MORE,
NOT JUST VARIETY, A VALID
DESIRE, BUT TO SAVE TIME.
SO I THINK WHEN WE THINK ABOUT A
CHEAPER DIET, THRIFTY DIET, THIS
IDEA WE NEED TO DO MORE HOME
COOKING WHICH IS TRUE, IT COSTS
US LESS IN TERMS OF MONEY BUT
DOESN'T COST LESS IN TERMS OF
TIME.
WE DON'T VALUE CHILD CARE AND
COOKING AND THINGS LIKE THAT IN
HOUSES, ANY SERVICES DONE INSIDE
THE HOUSEHOLD DOESN'T GET ADDED
TO GDP, NOT IN THE THESE
METRICS, JUST NOT COUNTED.
THAT TIME COST IS SIGNIFICANT.
WE ALL KNOW THAT.
AND SO I THINK IF WE TALK ABOUT
SHIFTING TO THRIFTY DIET
INVOLVING MORE COOKING WITHIN
THE HOME, THERE ARE SOME SERIOUS
BENEFITS BUT I THINK WE ALSO
HAVE TO FACTOR IN THE TIME COST
OF THAT DIMENSION, WHICH WILL
MAKE IT LOOK CHEAPER, BECAUSE
YOU'RE SPENDING LESS, NOT PAYING
FOR RESTAURANT SERVICES.
BUT YOU ARE STILL SPENDING THE
TIME, IF THAT MAKES SENSE.
>>WELL, IT DOES.
AS WOMEN GET MORE EDUCATED AND
HAVE FEWER CHILDREN AND GO MORE
INTO THE WORKFORCE, THE TREND IS
NOT GOING TO BE FOR DOING MORE
COOKING AT HOME.
YOU KNOW, IN GENERAL.
THOSE REALLY NEED -- THOSE
PENSIONS NEED TO BE BUILT INTO
YOUR -- INTO THESE MODELS TO
FIGURE OUT HOW DO WE MEET DIET,
THINKING GLOBALLY, THOSE ARE
TRENDS, WOMEN ARE HOPEFULLY
GETTING MORE EDUCATED ON A
GLOBAL BASIS, NOT JUST HIGH
INCOME SETTINGS, SO THOSE TRENDS
WE NEED TO INCORPORATE IT SEEMS
LIKE IN OUR THINKING.
>> VERY QUICKLY, IT'S A
CONTENTIOUS AREA WITHIN OUR
DEVELOPMENT MODELERS, WE HAVE
MODELS THAT ACT FOR CHILD CARE,
HOME COOKING, ADD TO GDP,
AUGMENT AND ADD THIS HOME SECTOR
AS PART OF THE INCOME, IMPUTED
INCOME PEOPLE EARN.
THE PROBLEM WITH THOSE MODELS IS
THAT THEY LEAD TO SOME PRETTY
STRANGE CONCLUSIONS THAT MAKE US
UNCOMFORTABLE, WHICH IS ACTUALLY
ONCE YOU VALUE WHAT LET'S SAY
WOMEN DO WITHIN THE HOUSEHOLD,
YOU WANT THEM TO STAY THERE.
AND SO YOU END UP WITH THESE
VERY PERVERSE RECOMMENDATIONS
WHICH IS ACTUALLY WE DON'T WANT
WOMEN PARTICIPATING IN THE LABOR
MARKET, WE QUITE LIKE THEM BEING
LOWLY PAID OR UNPAID.
>> RIGHT.
>> PEOPLE IN THE HOUSEHOLD.
WE HAVE TO BE CAREFUL ABOUT
THAT, ABOUT HOW WE BALANCE THAT.
>> YES.
>> IT'S A TOUGH NUT TO CRACK.
>> YES.
IT'S GOOD IT'S ON YOUR RADAR.
WE'LL GO WITH THAT.
>> THAT'S A GREAT SEGUE INTO
OUR NEXT SESSION AFTER THE BREAK
TALKING ABOUT SOCIAL MEASURES
AND OUTCOMES, ET CETERA.
THIS IS AN EXAMPLE OF WHERE IF
YOU TRY TO OPTIMIZE A PARTICULAR
MEASURE, IGNORING ALL OTHER
MEASURES OR OTHER CONSEQUENCES,
CAN YOU COME UP WITH AS JAMES
DESCRIBED PERVERSE FINDINGS AND
OUTCOMES THAT REALLY ARE NOT
NECESSARILY OPTIMIZING OUR
FURTHERING SOCIETY IN GENERAL.
SO, GREAT POINTS.
AGAIN, WE COULD DISCUSS THIS
CERTAINLY, JAMES, WE VERY MUCH
ENJOY TALKING TO YOU AND GETTING
ALL OF YOUR EXPERTISE AND
WONDERFUL PRESENTATION.
BUT WE DO HAVE TO MOVE TO THE
NEXT SEGMENT WHICH IS ACTUALLY
THE BREAK.
SO, JUST A COUPLE THINGS.
KEEP THE QUESTIONS COMING.
WE DID HAVE A QUESTION FROM THE
PREVIOUS SESSION FOR ALEX, SO
WE'LL KEEP THAT IN MIND.
MANY WE'LL TRY TO GET THAT
ANSWERED LATER IN THE DAY.
BUT RIGHT NOW WE'RE GOING TO
TAKE A QUICK FIVE-MINUTE BREAK.
I BELIEVE FIVE MINUTES, AND
WE'LL START THE NEXT SESSION AT
11:45.
ZACH, DO YOU WANT TO BRING US
INTO THE BREAK?
>> I THINK THAT'S A GREAT PLACE
TO SEGUE.
I THINK THAT THROUGHOUT AS WELL
THROUGHOUT THE CONVERSATION THAT
WE'RE HAVING TODAY, JUST WANT TO
ENCOURAGE PEOPLE TO IDENTIFY
GAPS, DATA GAPS, AND I WANTED TO
VERY BRIEFLY MENTION ONE OF OUR
DATA GAPS IS TO BE ABLE TO
ESTIMATE INDIVIDUAL LEVEL FOOD
COSTS, FOOD PRICES, FOR FOODS
CONSUMED AWAY FROM HOME.
WITH THAT, MAYBE THAT'S
SOMETHING TO CHEW ON, SO TO
SPEAK, AS WE GET OUR SNACKS AND
DO WHAT NEED TO DO TO GET BACK
AND REENERGIZE NOR THE NEXT
SESSION, SO THANK YOU.
>> 11:45 EASTERN TIME WE'LL GET
RESTARTED.
WE'RE READY TO PROCEED TO THE
NEXT SESSION WHICH IS LED BY OUR
WORKING GROUP 4 MEMBER MARIE
SPIKER, AN ASSISTANT PROFESSOR
OF EPIDEMIOLOGY AT THE
UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON, AND
DOES A RANGE OF TERRIFIC WORK IN
NUTRITION, FOOD SUPPLY AND SO
WE'RE FORTUNATE TO HAVE HER
LEADING THE NEXT SESSION, SO
PASSING THE VIRTUAL MICROPHONE
TO DR. SPIKER TO TALK ABOUT
NUTRITION AND HEALTH.
>>THANK YOU FOR THE
INTRODUCTION.
LET ME GET MY SCREEN SHARING
GOING HERE, A QUICK THUMBS UP IN
THE CHAT.
>>WE SEE YOUR SCREEN, NUTRITION
AND HEALTH.
>>PERFECT.
THANK YOU.
SO, IN TALKING ABOUT THIS
DOMAIN, I AM NOT AIMING TO BE
FULLY COMPREHENSIVE AND CAPTURE
EVERY DETAIL BECAUSE THERE'S SO
MUCH TO COVER.
WE HAVE A LOT OF EXPERTS IN
NUTRITION AND HEALTH HERE IN THE
ROOM, AS PART OF OUR WORKING
GROUP.
BUT THE GOAL IS TO DO HIGH LEVEL
INTRODUCTION IN THIS DOMAIN,
SOME LEVEL SETTING WITH
TERMINOLOGY, KNOWING WE DO HAVE
AN INTERDISCIPLINARY GROUP HERE.
AND TO GIVE SOMETHING TO REACT
TO AND BUILD ON AS A GROUP.
I APPRECIATED THE FRAMING OF THE
MARIE KONDO BUCKETS, CONTAINERS
I'M LAYING OUT, JUST SOMETHING
FOR US TO REACT TO.
I'M GOING TO TALK ABOUT METRICS
AND SHIFT MORE INTO METHODS.
RELATED TO NUTRITION AND HEALTH,
THERE'S THIS WHOLE KIND OF
SPECTRUM.
HERE I'M LAYING THEM OUT ROUGHLY
IN TERMS OF FROM THE MORE
PROXIMAL METRIC TO MORE DISTAL,
THAT DAN MENTIONED AS WELL.
THERE'S TREMENDOUS DIVERSITY IN
HOW WE ARE CONCEPTUALIZING AND
MEASURING THINGS, AT VARIETY OF
SCALES.
NOT AIMING TO BE EXHAUSTIVE BUT
ILLUSTRATIVE.
A WHOLE RANGE OF HEALTH OUTCOMES
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH BURDENS OF
MALNUTRITION, RANGE OF HEALTH
OUTCOMES ASSOCIATED WITH
UNDERNUTRITION, MICRONUTRIENT
DEFICIENCY, OVERWEIGHT AND
OBESITY, OVERLAPS, AND DIFFERENT
WAYS THAT WE MEASURE THESE, LIKE
WE MIGHT BE TALKING ABOUT
PREVALENCE, INCIDENCE,
DISABILITY ADJUSTED LIFE YEARS
TO STANDARDIZE AND COMPARE THE
BURDEN OF DISEASES.
WHEN IT COMES TO NUTRITIONAL
STATUS, AND DAN I APPRECIATE THE
FRAMING, WE CAN THINK OF BOTH AN
INPUT AND OUTPUT RELATED TO
HEALTH, RIGHT?
WE HAVE MULTIPLE FORMS OF
ASSESSMENT FROM ANTHROPO METRIC
TO BIOCHEMICAL MARKERS, CLINICAL
OBSERVATIONS, AND DIETARY
INTAKE.
AND DIETARY INTAKE I WANT TO GO
INTO MORE DETAILS, BUILDING ON
WHAT WE WERE JUST TALKING ABOUT
BEFORE THE BREAK, GOING INTO
MORE DETAIL HERE.
YOU CAN THINK OF DIETARY INTAKE
AS A WAY OF ASSESSING
NUTRITIONAL STATUS BUT IT'S A
WHOLE WORLD OF ITS OWN.
THERE'S A METHODOLOGICAL
CONVERSATION TO BE HAD ABOUT HOW
WE UNDERSTAND WHAT PEOPLE'S
DIETARY INTAKE IS OR HOW WE
MIGHT BE CONSTRUCTING AND
BUILDING DIFFERENT TYPES OF
DIETARY PATTERNS, WE MIGHT BE
DOING DETAILED ASSESSMENT OF
DIETARY INTAKE ON AN INDIVIDUAL
LEVEL THROUGH THINGS LIKE 24
HOUR DIET RECALLS, QUESTIONS,
TRY TO ASSESS IN DETAIL WHAT
INDIVIDUAL LEVEL DIETARY
PATTERNS ARE.
WE CAN LOOK AT THINGS LIKE DIET
DIVERSITY SCORES WHICH CAN BE AT
INDIVIDUAL LEVEL OR HOUSEHOLD
LEVEL.
WE ALSO SEE FOOD SUPPLY DATA
BEING USED AS A ROUGH PROXY,
IT'S NOT PERFECT BUT YOU DO SEE
IT BEING USED IN THAT WAY.
SPENDING ANOTHER MOMENT ON
DIETARY INTAKE, IT BECOMES
IMPORTANT WHEN WE'RE TALKING
ABOUT THE BROADER INTERSECTION
OF NUTRITION, FOOD SYSTEMS,
CLIMATE, AND SUSTAINABILITY
BECAUSE DIETARY INTAKE IS THE
LINCHPIN HERE, THE THING THAT IS
IMPLICATED IN THIS TWO-WAY
RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CLIMATE AND
HEALTH.
WE USES EPIDEMIOLOGIC METHODS,
WHICH DIETARY PATTERNS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH LOWER INCIDENCE
OF CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASE, BUT
WE NOW ALSO SEE IN THE PAST TEN
YEARS A HUGE PROLIFERATION OF
RESEARCH USING METHODS LIKE LIFE
CYCLE ASSESSMENT TO UNDERSTAND
HOW DIETARY PATTERNS COMPARE IN
THEIR, FOR EXAMPLE, GREENHOUSE
GAS EMISSIONS OR WATER USE.
SO, THERE'S A WHOLE
METHODOLOGICAL CONVERSATION THAT
COULD BE HAD IN TERMS OF EACH OF
THESE PIECES, IMPACT OF DIETARY
INTAKE, HEALTH OUTCOMES, HOW
WE'RE MEASURE THEM, AS WELL AS
METHODOLOGICAL CONVERSATIONS
ABOUT HOW WE ASSESS THESE
LINKAGES, LIKE WHAT ARE THE BEST
PRACTICES IN TERMS OF THOSE
EPIDEMIOLOGICAL LINKAGES, WHEN
IT COMES TO ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT
ASSESSMENT WHAT ARE SOME BEST
PRACTICES THERE.
THERE'S CONVERSATION AROUND
SHOULD WE HAVE JOINT METRICS,
FOR EXAMPLE SOMETHING LIKE
SUSTAINABLE DIET INDEX THAT HAS
DIMENSIONS OF BOTH ENVIRONMENTAL
IMPACT AND HEALTH OUTCOMES,
BUILT INTO THAT.
AND A QUESTION THAT COMES TO
MIND FOR ME ESPECIALLY SEEING
THE PRESENTATIONS FROM EARLIER
THIS MORNING IS THAT SINGLE
INDEX MEASURE WHAT WE WANT TO
MOVE TOWARDS OR ARE WE REALLY
WANTING TO LEAN INTO METHODS
THAT HELP US TO UNDERSTAND SOME
OF THE COMPLEXITIES AND DYNAMICS
OF WHAT'S GOING ON IN THESE
SYSTEMS.
DIETARY INTAKE HAS BACK METRIC,
ONE THAT'S PARTICULARLY A WHOLE
WORLD OF METRICS, PARTICULARLY
IMPORTANT IN THIS, THIS LARGER
SPACE, THAT WE'RE TALKING ABOUT.
AND THEN GETTING INTO EVEN SOME
MORE DISTAL MEASURES HERE, FOOD
SECURITY IS SOMETHING WE CAN
MEASURE AT MULTIPLE SCALES,
RIGHT?
AND WHEN WE'RE MEASURING
DIFFERENT SCALES AND WITH
DIFFERENT TOOLS, WE'RE OFTEN
PICKING UP ON REALLY DIFFERENT
ASPECTS WITHIN FOOD SECURITY, SO
SOMETIMES WE'RE REPLACING
PICKING UP ON THE ELEMENTS OF
QUANTITY, RIGHT?
JUST LIKE ADEQUACY OF FOOD IN
THE FOOD SUPPLY, CALORIC PROTEIN
SUFFICIENCY, MONITORING SYSTEMS
LIKE FEWS NET, AGRICULTURE
PRODUCTION, WEATHER AND CLIMATE
RISK, POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC
STABILITY, WE ALSO HAVE THIS
WHOLE WORLD OF MEASURING FOOD
SECURITY AT THE HOUSEHOLD LEVEL
WHERE THE IDEA OF QUANTITY AND
SUFFICIENCY CERTAINLY IS PART OF
THAT, A LOT OF TOOLS HERE ALSO
ARE PICKING UP ON ECONOMIC
ACCESS TO FOOD, AFFORDABILITY,
TRYING TO PICK UP ON CHANGES IN
DIET QUALITY, MEAL SIZE, SKIPPED
MEALS, AS WELL AS PSYCHOLOGICAL
DIMENSIONS LIKE WORRY AND
ANXIETY ABOUT WHERE FOOD IS
GOING TO COME FROM.
I'M NOT COVERING EVERY BUCKET OF
METRICS BUT WITH FOOD
ENVIRONMENT AS WITH ALL THE REST
THERE'S NOT A SINGLE METRIC THAT
TELLS US EVERYTHING ABOUT A FOOD
ENVIRONMENT.
BUT WITHIN ANY OF THESE
CHARACTERISTICS WHETHER TALKING
ABOUT VENDOR, QUALITY, LABELING,
PLACEMENT, PRICES, MARKETING
REGULATIONS, AND WE CAN THINK
ABOUT THE EXTERNAL DEMAIN OF
FOOD ENVIRONMENT FACTORS AS WELL
AS PERSONAL DOMAIN LIKE THE
CONVENIENCE AND DESIRABILITY OF
THE THINGS WITHIN THE
ENVIRONMENT.
FOR EACH OF THESE MULTIPLE WAYS
WE CAN BE MEASURING HERE.
AND THEN FOOD LOSS AND WASTE,
WORKING GROUP 2 IS COVERING THIS
BUT I WANT TO EMPHASIZE LINKAGE
BETWEEN FOOD WASTE AND
NUTRITION.
BASE LEVEL, FOOD LOOSE AND WASTE
HINDERS BASE AVAILABILITY OF
NUTRITIOUS FOODS IN THE FOOD
SUPPLY, FOOD LOOSE AND WASTE
REPRESENTS MISSED OPPORTUNITIES
FOR NUTRITION SO WE CAN EVEN
QUANTIFY IT LIKE GLOBALLY,
ANNUAL PER CAPITA WASTE TO
PROVIDE A HEALTHY DIET FOR ONE
PERSON FOR 17 DAYS.
ALSO THE VALUE OF THE WHOLE
ADVANTAGE PROJECT HERE IS THAT
WE ARE LOOKING AT THE
BIDIRECTIONAL RELATIONSHIPS,
CLIMATE IMPLICATION, AND WHEN WE
THINK ABOUT FOOD WASTE
PRODUCTION A LOT OF CLIMATE
IMPLICATIONS HERE, PROJECT
DRAWDOWN, THEY DO RANKINGS OF
THE POTENTIAL -- WHAT ARE THE
TOP CLIMATE MITIGATION
STRATEGIES WITH THE BIGGEST
IMPACT.
MANAGEMENT OF REFRIGERANTS OFTEN
CONSISTENTLY APPEARS IN ONE OF
THE TOP FIVE POTENTIAL CLIMATE
MITIGATION SOLUTIONS, THIS IS
REFERRING TO LEAKAGE OF
CHLORINATED GASES, FLEUROCARBONS
FROM REFRIGERANT SYSTEMS, OLDER
COOLING SYSTEMS ESPECIALLY.
IF WE THINK ABOUT LOW-RESOURCE
SETTINGS, NEED FOR MORE COLD
STORAGE IN THESE SETTINGS, MORE
COLD STORAGE IS GOING TO HELP
REDUCE WASTE ESPECIALLY FOR
PERISHABLE FOODS LIKE FRUITS AND
VEGETABLES, COMING WITH
POTENTIAL LEAKAGE OF GREENHOUSE
GAS, BUT WE'RE NOT GOING THINGS
TO REDUCE LOSS AND WASTE, FOOD
IS DECOMPOSING IN LANDFILLS
RELEASING METHANE AS WELL, A LOT
OF INTERESTING RELATIONSHIPS
HERE BETWEEN FOOD LOSS AND
WASTE, CLIMATE, NUTRITION, AND
OVERALL SUSTAINABILITY OF FOOD
SYSTEM.
I WANT TO NOTE, GETTING MORE
INTO METHODS, THERE ARE JUST
SOME FANTASTIC TOOLS OUT THERE
THAT ALREADY EXIST TO HELP US TO
NAVIGATE, WE DON'T NEED TO
RECREATE THE WHEEL HERE.
THIS IS A SCREEN SHOT OF A TOOL
I LOVE, EVIDENCE GAP MAP FROM
IMMANA, THIS WORK LED BY
SPERLING, ON THE CALL TODAY.
THIS SPECIFICALLY IN THE CONTEXT
OF AGRICULTURE AND NUTRITION
RESEARCH, REALLY BRILLIANT WORK
HERE THAT FOR A VARIETY OF
METRICS ACROSS DIFFERENT
DOMAINS, TALKS ABOUT METHODS
CURRENTLY BEING USED, AS WELL AS
GETTING INTO THE TOOLS, RIGHT?
HOW ARE WE ACTUALLY COLLECTING
DATA AND WHAT ARE THE TOOLS
WE'RE USING TO MAKE THESE
MEASUREMENTS.
I WANT TO NOTE JUST THE
TREMENDOUS EFFORT THAT WENT INTO
THIS AND THIS GREAT RESOURCE
THAT WE CAN BE DRAWING FROM.
AND THEN THINKING ABOUT METHODS,
THIS FIGURE COMES FROM A PAPER
THAT I WORKED ON WITH JEFF FONZO
ON GROUP 5 AND BELLOWS ON GROUP
1.
WE TRIED TO LAY OUT A RESEARCH
AGENDA.
ONE THING WE TRIED TO SHOW HERE
IS THAT WE REALLY NEED TO BE
USING A DIVERSE RANGE OF
RESEARCH METHODS.
SO, BASIC SCIENCE, CLINICAL
RESEARCH, EPIDEMIOLOGY ARE
IMPORTANT, ESSENTIAL, BUT WHEN
WE'RE DEALING WITH COMPLEX
SYSTEMS WE NEED TO BE DRAWING
FROM THIS FULL RANGE OF METHODS.
TO ILLUSTRATE HOW THESE METHODS
ARE COMPLEMENTARY I WANT TO
PROVIDE EXAMPLES USING MULTIPLE
METHODS IN ADDRESSING A QUESTION
LIKE HOW MIGHT CLIMATE CHANGE
EFFECT NUTRITIONAL STATUS
THROUGH IMPACT ON TERRESTRIAL
CROPS?
WE MIGHT BE ASKING BASIC SCIENCE
QUESTIONS, HOW DOES THAT CARBON
DIOXIDE AFFECT CROP NUTRIENT
CONTENT?
IN SOME CASES THIS IS HUMAN
BIOLOGY, IN SOME CASES
BIOGEOCHEMISTRY, THERE'S A
TREMENDOUS DIVERSITY IN RANGE OF
DISCIPLINES TO DRAW FROM.
YOU CAN SEE EXAMPLES OF
SURVEILLANCE, NUTRITION AND
HEALTH, THINKING OF MONITORING
AND SURVEILLANCE THAT WE MIGHT
DO FOR THINGS LIKE RISK FACTORS,
DIETARY INTAKE, HEALTH OUTCOMES,
SURVEILLANCE ALSO THAT WE CAN BE
DOAK -- DOING RELATED TO WEATHR
AND IMPACTS OF CLIMATE AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE.
WE'VE BEEN TALKING THIS MORNING
ABOUT SYSTEMS MODELING AND JUST
THE TREMENDOUS WORK THAT'S
HAPPENING IN THAT SPACE
ESPECIALLY IN THE WORLD OF THE
CROP MODELING, A LOT OF
POTENTIAL TO BE BRINGING SYSTEMS
MODELING TOOLS LIKE FURTHER INTO
THE FOOD SYSTEM AND INTO THE
WORLD OF NUTRITION AND HEALTH.
WE KNOW THERE'S A ROLE HERE OF
OBSERVATIONAL AND EXPERIMENTAL
EPIDEMIOLOGICAL METHODS TO HELP
US DO THAT ATTRIBUTIONAL WORK
AND UNDERSTAND THOSE LINKAGES,
INTO NUTRITION HEALTH STATUS.
I WANT TO EMPHASIZE QUALITATIVE
RESEARCH HERE, RESEARCH
QUESTIONS THAT WE ASK USING THE
OTHER METHODS THAT ARE GOING TO
BE MORE MEANINGFUL AND MAKE MORE
SENSE IF THEY ARE
COMPLEMENTEDDED BY FORMATIVE
WORK AND IN DEPTH AND RIGOROUS
QUALITATIVE RESEARCH THROUGHOUT
ALL STAGES AND IMPORTANCE OF
IMPLEMENTATION SCIENCE, META
RESEARCH, TO WHAT EXTENT ARE WE
COMING TOGETHER IN
INTERDISCIPLINARY AND
TRANSDISCIPLINARY WAYS TO DO
THIS WORK.
ONE MORE STEP OF EXAMPLES HERE,
CLIMATE, NUTRITION, HEALTH AND
FOOD SYSTEMS.
WE COULD LOOK AT IMPACT ON
AQUATIC FOODS, SO I WON'T READ
THROUGH ALL OF THESE BUT I WHEN
WE HAVE THIS GOAL TRYING IMPROVE
HUMAN HEALTH, IMPROVE THE SHARED
ENVIRONMENT THAT ENABLES HUMAN
HEALTH, THIS NEEDS TO BE DRIVEN
BY THE PROBLEM SPACE RATHER THAN
BY METHODS.
RIGOROUS METHODS ARE ESSENTIAL
BUT WE NEED TO TAKE A PRAGMATIC
APPROACH THAT RECOGNIZES
MULTIPLE METHODS.
ANY QUESTIONS HERE REPRESENT THE
WHOLE SPECK ATTRIBUTIONAL WORK,
I WANT TO EMPHASIZE WHEN IT
COMES TO IMPLEMENTATION PIECE
THERE'S A SCIENCE TO THAT, TO
THINKING ABOUT IMPLEMENTATION,
DISSEMINATION, TRANSLATION,
POLICY, THAT NEEDS TO BE PART OF
OUR RESEARCH PIPELINE AND
AGENDA.
AND ONE MORE VIEW, TRYING TO
DISTILL DOWN WHY IS IT THAT WE
DO NUTRITION RESEARCH, TO WHAT
PURPOSE?
IN MODE 1 WE'RE GENERATING
FOUNDATIONAL KNOWLEDGE, IN 2
TRYING TO GENERATE ACTIONABLE
KNOWLEDGE, DRAWING FROM A
GREATER RANGE OF METHODS,
TALKING ABOUT SYSTEMS METHODS,
AND METHODS THAT CONSIDER
STAKEHOLDERS AND POLICY.
A FEW QUESTIONS TO POSE TO THE
GROUP, I KNOW WE HAVE A LOT OF
NUTRITION AND HEALTH EXPERTS ON
THE WORKING GROUP, I INVITE
EVERYONE TO TAKE PART IN
DISCUSSION HERE THINKING ABOUT
NUTRITION AND HEALTH METRICS,
DEVELOPING METHODS TO CONNECT
NUTRITION AND HEALTH TO DOMAINS
IN BROADER CONTEXT OF CLIMATE
AND SUSTAINABILITY, SO THE
QUESTION I HAVE FOR THE GROUP TO
DISCUSS HERE IS WHAT CHALLENGES
DO WE FACE IN DOING THIS, AND
WHAT IS THE ROOT?
IS IT ABOUT OUR DATA, TRAINING,
ABILITY TO BE COLLABORATING
ACROSS DISCIPLINES, SOMETHING
ELSE?
AND THE RANGE OF METRICS THAT
MIGHT BE PROXIMAL OR DISTAL,
WHERE DOES NUTRITION END AND
HEALTH BEGIN?
WE'RE WILLING TO -- WE CAN MAKE
THE LEAP BUT TO WHAT EXTENT DO
WE ACCEPT SUBOPTIMAL, THAT TELLS
US ABOUT HEALTH STATUS.
IN NUTRITION TO WHAT EXTENT DO
WE GRAPPLE, NOT NECESSARILY
MEDIATED BY DIETARY INTAKE AND
WHAT DO WE RISK BY NOT ENGAGING
WITH COMPLEX PATHWAYS BETWEEN
CLIMATE FOOD SYSTEMS AND HEALTH.
I'LL STOP HERE AND WELCOME
QUESTIONS AND CONVERSATION WAS
BRUCE AND ZACH BUT AGAIN ANYONE
ELSE IN THE WORKING GROUP WHO
WANTS TO JUMP INTO THE
CONVERSATION, I WELCOME THAT.
GREAT OVERVIEW, GENERATES SOME
VERY INTERESTING QUESTIONS AND
IMPORTANT INSIGHTS.
ONE QUESTION OFF THE BAT WAS HOW
DO WE DEAL WITH THE
HETEROGENEITY OF THE POPULATION?
THIS IS ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT
SINCE WE DO KNOW THAT THERE ARE
TREMENDOUS DISPARITIES WHEN IT
COMES TO NUTRITION, HEALTH
STATUS, AND ON TOP OF THAT IF
YOU THROW THE ENVIRONMENT AND
CLIMATE ON TOP OF THAT, THE
CONTINUING CONCERN, THERE'S BEEN
DISPROPORTIONATE AFFECTS OF
ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGES ON
DIFFERENT MEMBERS OF THE
POPULATION.
WHEN WE'RE MEASURING THOSE
THINGS, HOW DO WE ADDRESS THAT
TO A POINT WHERE IF WE GO TOO
GRANULAR WE'RE HAVING EXTREMELY
COMPLEX SET OF METRICS, BUT AT
THE SAME POINT IF WE GO TOO
BROAD BASED, ONE-SIZE-FITS-ALL,
WE OVERLOOK HETEROGENEITY THAT
EXISTS WITHIN THE POPULATION,
POTENTIAL EFFECTS AND
DISPARITIES, INEQUITY, THINGS
LIKE THAT.
>> YEAH, THINKING ABOUT HOW WE
ADDRESS HETEROGENEITY, LIKE IN
ALL THESE DIFFERENT
METHODOLOGICAL APPROACHES WE NEW
ENGLAND OF IT DIFFERENTLY,
STATISTICAL MODELING, BREAK DOWN
DISPARITIES THAT MIGHT BE
HAPPENING, OUTCOMES, MIGHT HAVE
DIFFERENT OUTCOMES DEPENDING ON
RACE/ETHNICITY, INCOME.
THERE'S WAYS TO LOOK INTO
HETEROGENEITY THERE AND
STATISTICAL MODELING.
WHEN WE'RE DOING SYSTEMS
MODELING WE DO HAVE THE ABILITY
TO LOOK AT NOT JUST LIKE IS
THERE A DIFFERENCE IN TERMS OF
OVERALL IMPACT BUT ARE THERE
DIFFERENT LIKE PATHWAYS OF
IMPACT, DIFFERENT MECHANISMS OF
IMPACT THAT ARE HAPPENING FOR
DIFFERENT GROUPS OF PEOPLE.
AND THEN QUALITATIVE RESEARCH IS
SO IMPORTANT FOR UNDERSTANDING
HETEROGENEITY, WHERE IT EXISTS,
WHAT WE MIGHT NEED TO BE
ADJUSTING FOR IN STATISTICAL
MODELS OR WHAT NEEDS TO BE
DIFFERENT PATHWAYS AND
MECHANISMS OF IMPACT THAT WE
REPRESENT IN OUR SYSTEMS
MODELING SINCE WE AREN'T TALKING
TO PEOPLE AND DOING RIGOROUSLY
THROUGH QUALITATIVE RESEARCH WE
MAY NOT EVEN BE AWARE OF WHAT
SOME OF THAT HETEROGENEITY MIGHT
BE.
>>ANY QUESTIONS, ZACH?
>>THANKS AGAIN FOR THAT GREAT
PRESENTATION.
I KNOW YOU HAVE BEEN DOING A LOT
OF THINKING AND WORK AS SOME
OTHER PEOPLE HERE IN THIS GROUP
HAVE BEEN AS WELL.
HOW DO WE TRAIN THE NEXT
GENERATION OF SCIENTISTS TO
THINK ACROSS DOMAINS WHILE STILL
RECOGNIZING THAT THERE'S THIS
INSTITUTIONAL STRUCTURE THAT
NEEDS TO BE ARGUABLY SOMEWHAT
SILOED IN ORDER TO MEET
STANDARDS, CURRICULAR STANDARDS.
BUT ALSO THAT ENCOURAGES
INCENTIVIZES STUDENTS BUT ALSO
FACULTY TO BE WORKING AND
THINKING ACROSS DOMAINS AND TO
BE TRAINED IN MULTIPLE DIFFERENT
AREAS WHILE NOT COMPROMISING
THEIR KNOWLEDGE BASE AND ANY ONE
PARTICULAR AREA.
IT'S JUST SUCH A HARD ISSUE TO
GRAPPLE WITH AND SO WONDERING IF
YOU COULD SPEAK TO THE BROAD
STATEMENT OR QUESTION.
>> YEAH.
SO MUCH TO UNPACK HERE.
ONE MODEL I LIKE TO THINK ABOUT
I'VE HEARD PEOPLE DESCRIBE --
I'VE DONE A LOT OF WORK THINKING
ABOUT PROFESSIONAL CAPACITY
BUILDING, NUTRITION, DIETETICS,
PEOPLE TALK ABOUT NUTRITION
PROFESSIONALSING A HAVING A
T-SHAPED EXPERTISE, THIS IS THE
CORE DISCIPLINARY OR
PROFESSIONAL SKILL SET BUT AT
THE TOP OF THE T HAVE YOUR
BREADTH OF LIKE -- THAT'S THE
BREADTH THAT ALLOWS YOU TO BE IN
COMMUNICATION WITH OTHER
DISCIPLINES, FIGURE OUT WHERE
ARE THOSE INTERESTING AREAS, MY
EXPERTISE AND YOURS NEED COME
TOGETHER.
AND I THINK A LOT ABOUT WORKING
IN HIGHER EDUCATION AND THINKING
ABOUT LIKE HOW DO WE GET
STUDENTS TO KIND OF FIGURE OUT
LIKE HOW THEY WANT TO BUILD
THEIR OWN T SHAPE, RIGHT?
YOU MIGHT BE PICKING UP DEPTH OF
EXPERTISE THROUGH YOUR
BACHELOR'S DEGREE, PROFESSIONAL
TRAINING, BUT AT SOME POINT YOU
NEED EXPOSURE TO
INTERDISCIPLINARY -- YOU NEED TO
BE LEARNING AND TRAINING
ALONGSIDE AND TALKING TO
RESEARCHERS FROM OTHER
DISCIPLINES.
AND BUNCHING UP AGAINST
COMMUNICATIONS ISSUES, WAIT A
MINUTE, WE'VE BEEN TALKING ABOUT
THE SAME THING WITH TWO SETS OF
LANGUAGES.
YOU NEED TO LIKE HAVE THOSE
EXPERIENCES SO THINKING ABOUT
LIKE PRO GRAYLINGS WHERE IS THE
BEST POINT IN YOUR TRAJECTORY TO
BE PICKING UP OF THAT UP AN
CULTIVATE THOSE EXPERIENCES,
SOMETHING WE SHOULD BAKE INTO
THE UNDERGRADUATE LEVEL OR PICK
UP LATER?
AND POINT WELL TAKEN ABOUT JUST
HOW SOME INSTITUTIONAL
STRUCTURES AND INCENTIVES
SOMETIMES WORK AGAINST US DOING
THAT.
I'M GLAD TO SEE SORT OF A BIG --
PEOPLE ARE CALLING FOR TEAM
SCIENCE AND COLLABORATIVE AND
INTERDISCIPLINARY SCIENCE.
BUT THEN AT THE END OF THE DAY
SOMETIMES THE THING THAT'S OF
VALUE, PROMOTION, FOR EXAMPLE,
NOT THAT YOU DID A LOT OF GREAT
INTERDISCIPLINARY CLACK A --
COLLABORATIVE SCIENCE BUT DID
STUFF BY YOURSELF, THINKING
ABOUT SOME TENSION THERE SO I DO
THINK THERE ARE SHIFTS WE CAN
MAKE LIKE IN PROMOTION CRITERIA,
FOR EXAMPLE, CAN WE LIKE REALLY,
REALLY VALUE TEAM SCIENCE AND IN
CONCRETE WAYS, THERE'S A LOT OF
SHIFTS HOW WE LINE INCENTIVES
THAT COULD HELP
INTERDISCIPLINARY TRAINING THAT
WE NEED.
>> AND THERE'S SO MUCH MORE TO
SAY ABOUT THAT, MAYBE SOME MORE
WILL BUBBLE UP TO THE SURFACE IN
SOME MORE DISCUSSION.
LET'S TURN TO DAN AND THEN
THALIA HAS A HAND UP AS WELL.
>> THANK YOU, MARIE.
THERE ARE EFFORTS TO DO EXACTLY
WHAT YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT WITH
REGARD TO TRAINING, WE CAN TALK
ABOUT THAT.
THE SCOPE HERE, HOPEFULLY WHAT
WE'RE DOING HERE WILL INFORM AND
INCENTIVIZE PEOPLE TO DO MORE
INTERDISCIPLINARY PROGRAMS.
WE HAVE INSTITUTIONAL TRAINING
GRANTS HERE, A NUMBER OF
EXAMPLES HOW THAT'S WORKING
PARTICULARLY IN THIS SPACE.
I WANTED TO FOCUS MORE ON YOUR
ISSUES WITH REGARD TO
NUTRITIONAL ASSESSMENT.
>> YEAH.
>> NUTRITIONAL ASSESSMENT
REALLY DOES REPRESENT THIS
ECOLOGY, AND WE SPENT QUITE A
BIT OF TIME FOCUSING ON THIS.
THERE'S A NUMBER OF QUESTIONS.
ONE IS THAT NUTRITIONAL
ASSESSMENT DOESN'T JUST INCLUDE
DIETARY INTAKE.
IT DOESN'T JUST INCLUDE
BIOCHEMICAL INDICATED
BIOMARKERS, IT HAS TO INCLUDE
ALL.
YOU
CAN'T INTERPRET ONE WITHOUT THE
AREA.
IF YOU MEASURE DIETARY INTAKE
YOU CAN'T DETERMINE TRUE
NUTRITIONAL STATUS, THESE
PROCESSES OF NUTRITION, MORE
GOES ON AFTER SOMEONE PUTS FOOD
IN THEIR MOUTH THAT NEEDS TO BE
CONSIDERED, HOW WE ACHIEVE
NUTRITIONAL STATUS IF THAT'S OUR
TARGET, MARGINAL, ADEQUATE,
SUFFICIENT.
REALLY DEMANDS AN INCLUSION OF
THAT.
OUR ASSESSMENT IS ALSO -- USERS
OF THOSE ASSESSMENTS DIFFER.
SO THERE'S A DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
SOMEONE WHO IS WORKING IN A
LABORATORY VERSUS A PRIMARY CARE
SETTING IN MALAWI VERSUS MAKING
PROGRAMS AND POLICIES.
SO HOW DO WE VERY MANY DATA THAT
THOSE USER COMMUNITIES WILL NEED
TO MAKE DECISIONS IN THE CONTEXT
WHICH THEY EXIST IS GOING TO BE
IMPORTANT.
THE QUESTION IS HOW DO WE
INTEGRATE THESE MYRIAD FACTORS
INVOLVED IN NUTRITIONAL
ASSESSMENT, CONTEXT SPECIFIC
NUTRITIONAL ASSESSMENT INTO WHAT
WE'RE TRYING TO DO HERE.
>> UH-HUH.
YEAH, THESE ARE GREAT POINTS.
YEAH, APPRECIATE YOUR POINT, YOU
MENTIONED EARLIER NUTRITIONAL
STAT IS MULTI-DIMENSIONAL, WHEN
WE TEND TO THINK AS A SINGULAR
GLOBAL TARGET THAT WORKS AGAINST
IT, THE MULTI-DIMENSIONAL THING,
AND YOU BRING UP A GOOD POINT
ABOUT WHO IS THE AUDIENCE OR WHO
IS THE USER OR WHO IS THE PERSON
COLLECTING, ENSURING METRICS.
SO IT MAKES ME THINK ABOUT A
TOPIC OF DISCUSSION FOR WORKING
GROUP 4, STARTING TO SHAPE UP
OUR REPORT, TO REALLY THINK
ABOUT THE WHO, RIGHT?
AND SO IF WE ARE THINKING ABOUT
METRICS AND METHODS, ARE WE
THINKING PURELY FROM LIKE A
RESEARCH PERSPECTIVE OR ARE WE
THINKING AS YOU'VE MENTIONED,
DAN, ABOUT IMPLEMENTERS,
PROVIDERS, CLINICIANS, OR ALSO
THINKING ABOUT POLICYMAKERS,
RIGHT?
FOR WHOM LIKE THEIR VIEW ON
METRICS AND METRICS THAT THEY
CARE ABOUT ARE GOING TO BE
REALLY DIFFERENT.
APPRECIATE ALL THE POINTS YOU
RAISED DAN.
>> WORKING GROUP 5 IS VERY MUCH
FOCUSED ON THE ISSUES OF
IMPLEMENTATION SCIENCE,
TRANSLATION SCIENCE, HOW WE DO
ALL THAT.
LAYING A SET OF PRINCIPLES THAT
CAN GUIDE US ALONG THOSE LINES.
YOU GUYS AND WORKING GROUP 5,
YOUR INTERACTIONS WILL BE
CRITICAL.
>> DEFINITELY.
ALL THE WORKING GROUPS ARE
LINKED TOGETHER REALLY NICELY.
>>OUR DISCUSSION ABOUT
CURRICULUM AND TRAINING THE NEXT
GENERATION OF SCIENTISTS IS A
DISCUSSION MARIE AND THALIA AND
MYSELF CAN HAVE OFFLINE.
LET'S TURN TO OTHER QUESTIONS
PEOPLE MAY HAVE HAD MAYBE
RELATED TO SOME QUESTIONS THAT
MARIE POSED AS WELL.
ANY QUESTIONS FOR DR. SPIKER?
>> ONE QUESTION, MARIE, THE
FOOD ENVIRONMENT, DEFINING THE
FOOD ENVIRONMENT IS GETTING MORE
CHALLENGING GIVEN THAT PEOPLE
ORDER FOOD ONLINE, AND THERE'S
ALSO EVIDENCE THAT PEOPLE'S FOOD
ENVIRONMENTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY
IMMEDIATE AROUND THE HOUSEHOLD.
PEOPLE TRAVEL FOR WORK, TRAVEL
FOR FOR RECREATION, AND, AGAIN,
PEOPLE ARE NOW ORDERING FOOD
ONLINE AND THEN YOU START
BRINGING IN ECONOMIC FACTORS
SUCH AS INTERNET ACCESS, THINGS
LIKE THAT.
HOW DO YOU SEE MEASURES OF THE
FOOD ENVIRONMENT POTENTIALLY
CHANGING OVER TIME?
>>GREAT QUESTION.
FOOD ENVIRONMENT, EXACTLY WHAT
YOU JUST MENTIONED, QUESTION OF
SCALE.
I NOTED THERE'S THE TURNER
FRAMEWORK THAT SAYS THERE'S
EXTERNAL FACTORS AS WELL AS LIKE
PERMANENT FACTORS.
SO THINGS LIKE CONVENIENCE,
THAT'S A COMBINATION OF WHAT
OPTIONS ARE OUT THERE IN THE
WORLD AS WELL AS WHAT YOUR LIFE
IS LOOKING LIKE AND WHAT WOULD
BE CONVENIENT TO YOU IN THAT
MOMENT.
PERSONAL FACT ORS, NEIGHBORHOOD,
GEOGRAPHIC WORK, QUESTIONS OF
FOOD DESERTS, FOOD SWAMPS,
NEIGHBORHOOD LEVEL, WITHIN A
NEIGHBORHOOD WE CAN ZERO IN ON
PARTICULAR MARKETS AND THINK
ABOUT WHAT AVAILABILITY IS,
NUTRITIOUS FOODS THERE, OR LOOK
AT SPECIFIC SITES LIKE SCHOOLS
OR WORKPLACES SO THAT'S THE
CHALLENGE, WE WE ARE PASSING
THROUGH ALL OF THOSE.
WE'RE IN OUR HOMES, IN OUR
NEIGHBORHOODS, VISITING MULTIPLE
SPECIFIC SITES, SITES ARE
LOOKING AT PRODUCT PLACEMENT,
SEEING THE LABELING BUT WE ALSO
ARE TAKING IN VAST AMOUNTS OF
INFORMATION ABOUT THOSE PRODUCTS
THAT INFLUENCE QUALITY AND
DESIRABILITY AND CONVENIENCE
THROUGH MEDIA, ADVERTISING ON
THE SIDE OF A BUS, SOCIAL MEDIA.
THE WHOLE FOOD ENVIRONMENT SPACE
IS A REALLY INTERESTING ONE
BECAUSE IT'S LIKE WHAT IS IT
EXACTLY WE'RE TRYING TO CAPTURE
AND HOW DO YOU EVEN PIN DOWN AND
CHARACTERIZE, WHEN THE WAY WE
INTERACT IS VERY DYNAMIC,
GEOSPATIALLY AND TEMPORALLY AS
WELL.
>> THANKS, MARIE.
ONE MORE CALL FOR QUESTIONS
BEFORE WE MOVE TO THE NEXT
SESSION.
AGAIN, THERE'S A LOT OF THINGS
WE CAN TALK ABOUT.
I THINK YOU STARTED THE
CONVERSATION GOING WITH WHAT YOU
LAID OUT AND QUESTIONS AT THE
END.
THOSE ARE OPEN DISCUSSIONS THAT
WE SHOULD HAVE GOING FORWARD.
I THINK DAN HAD A QUESTION,
WE'LL TAKE YOUR QUESTION, DAN
AND SEGUE TO THE NEXT SESSION
AFTER THAT.
DAN?
>>THANKS.
WHAT WE LOSE BY TAKING A
MULTI-DISCIPLINARY APPROACH.
IT'S AN IMPORTANT OPPORTUNITY TO
USE CASE STUDIES TO ADDRESS THAT
SPECIFIC ISSUE.
EXAMPLE WOULD BE ANEMIA.
WHAT DO WE LOSE BY CHANGING OUR
FOCUS FROM ANEMIA BEING IRON
DEFICIENCY TO RECOGNIZING THAT
ANEMIA HAS MULTI-ETIOLOGIES, THE
ONLY WAY TO MOVE THE NEEDLE IS
TO BE MULTI-DISCIPLINARY, HOW DO
WE INTEGRATE MULTIPLE DIMENSIONS
OF CONDITIONS LIKE ANEMIA IN OUR
ANALYSIS TO REALLY GET ANSWERS
TO MEET THE CHARGE DAVID AND
LYNETTE MADE WITH REGARD TO WHY
WE DO THESE THINGS.
>> UH-HUH.
THAT'S A GREAT POINT.
YEAH, WITH WITHOUT QUESTION, I
WAS GETTING AT -- ONCE WE
REALIZE THAT THERE ARE FACTORS
OUR OUTCOMES SEPARATE FROM MY
DISCIPLINARY EXPERTISE, THERE'S
A WAY OF SAYING THAT THING ISN'T
NUTRITION, THAT'S NOT MY
EXPERTISE OR PROBLEM, SOMEBODY
ELSE CAN DEAL WITH IT.
SO MUCH OF WHAT WE'RE TALKING
ABOUT CROSSES ALL THESE
DISCIPLINES, AND SO THERE'S A
GREAT RISK IF WE SAY THAT
DOESN'T CONCERN ME, WE'RE AT
RISK BECAUSE WE WON'T BE MOVING
TOWARDS A SOLUTION TO THE
PROBLEM.
PART IS LIKE YOU NEED TO BE
GETTING COMFORTABLE WITH WORKING
A LITTLE BIT OUTSIDE OF OUR
COMFORT ZONES, NOT ADVOCATING
DOING RESEARCH WE'RE NOT
EQUIPPED TO DO, WE HAVE TO
RECOGNIZE BOUNDARIES OF OUR
EXPERTISE, HOW WE COMMUNICATE
AND COLLABORATE WITH EACH OTHER,
TO YOUR POINT, DAN.
>> WE SHOULD MOVE TO SOCIAL
DOMAIN.
DAN, I SEE YOU HAD YOUR HAND UP.
DO YOU WANT TO CONCLUDE WITH
SOMETHING?
>> I THOUGHT I LOWERED IT.
SORRY.
THANK YOU.
>> ALL RIGHT.
THANK YOU VERY MUCH, MARIE.
GREAT PRESENTATION.
NOW WE'LL TRANSITION INTO THE
SOCIAL DOMAIN.
THIS IS PARTICULARLY INTERESTING
DOMAIN BECAUSE THERE'S BEEN SOME
RECENT STUDIES THAT HAVE COME
OUT THAT CALLED THIS OUT,
PARTICULARLY CHALLENGING DOMAIN
TO GET OUR HANDS AROUND AND
IDENTIFY INDICATORS AND METRICS
AND HOW DO WE INCORPORATE THIS
INTO SOME OVERALL SUSTAINABILITY
MODELING.
WE HAVE EXPERTS TO DISCUSS THAT,
THEY CAN CORRECT ME WHERE I'M
MISTAKEN.
WE HAVE MEG BRUENIGN, PROFESSOR
OF NUTRITION SCIENCE, CHAIR OF
DEPARTMENT AT PENN STATE
UNIVERSITY.
SHE'S LEADING THIS SECTION.
WE'RE FORTUNATE TO HAVE AN
INVITED SPEAKER JOINING US, WHO
IS A SENIOR RESEARCH ASSOCIATE
AT CORNELL.
I'LL TURN IT OVER TO MEG.
THANK YOU.
>> THANKS, ZACH.
I'M THRILLED TO BE HERE THIS
AFTERNOON.
WE WERE CHATTING ABOUT HOW
EXCITING THIS WORK IS HAPPENING,
AND THAT NIH AND THE ACADEMY ARE
COMING TOGETHER TO FOCUS ON
THESE ISSUES AND SPECIFICALLY
PERSONAL PASSIONS AS IT RELATES
TO THE SOCIAL ENVIRONMENT.
I WANT TO MAKE SURE EVERYBODY
CAN SEE THE SLIDES.
>>YES, IT SAYS SOCIAL.
>> GREAT.
TODAY I WANTED TO TALK THROUGH
THE DIFFERENT CONSTRUCTS OF HOW
IT RELATES TO SUSTAINABILITY AND
CLIMATE CHANGE, AND THERE'S
SEVERAL CONSTRUCTS INVOLVED IN
THE SOCIAL ASPECT OF THE WORK.
GENERALLY THESE SOCIAL ASPECTS
ARE HOW GROUPS OF PEOPLE ARE
DIFFERENTIALLY AFFECTED BY ANY
MITIGATION ADAPTATION AND
RESILIENCE INTERVENTIONS.
FOR THE PURPOSE OF TODAY'S
DISCUSSION WE'VE GROUPED THESE
SOCIAL ASPECTS INTO FIVE
DIFFERENT BUCKETS OF CONSTRUCTS,
OTHERS MAY DO IT DIFFERENTLY,
FOR US THIS IS HOW WE WANTED TO
GROUND THE CONVERSATION.
THERE ARE A NUMBER OF
INDICATORS, METRICS, MARKS.
AS WE'VE HEARD THESE ARE
COUNTLESS AND CONTINUE TO GROW,
IT'S IMPORTANT TO ACKNOWLEDGE WE
NEED TO KEEP ASSESSING WAYS IN
WHICH WE CAN DO THIS BETTER.
THE FIRST BUCKET TO TALK ABOUT
WAS SOCIAL DETERMINANTS OF
HEALTH, THIS IS HOW PEOPLE LIVE,
LEARN, GROW, PLAY, AND PRAY IN
THEIR COMMUNITY.
AND HERE YOU SEE SOME DIFFERENT
EXAMPLES WITHIN THE CONSTRUCT.
WE MIGHT LOOK AT EDUCATION OR
INCOME, FOOD AND NUTRITION
SECURITY WHICH WE'VE TALKED
ABOUT TODAY, ACCESS AND
AFFORDABILITY, HEALTH CARE
ACCESS, COUNTLESS MEASURES HERE.
IN ADDITION WE CAN LOOK AT
CULTURAL DIVERSITY, CULTURAL
SENSITIVITY, FOOD SOVEREIGNLY,
AS WE LOOK ACROSS THE GLOBE HE'S
ARE IMPORTANT CONSTRUCTS TO BE
ASSESSING.
AND SO IT'S LOOKING AT THE
AVAILABILITY OF CULTURALLY
APPROPRIATE FOODS, AND LOOKING
AT DECOLONIZATION OF
METHODOLOGY, ACCESS TO SEEDS,
POLICIES FOR MAINTENANCE OF
TRADITIONAL WAYS OF BEING AND
EATING AND EXPERIENCING
NUTRITION.
INCLUSIVITY AND GOVERNANCE IS
CRITICAL AS WE EXAMINE SOCIAL
FACTORS.
THESE ARE EXPRESSED IN DIFFERENT
WAYS IN TERMS OF PUBLIC POLICY,
CASE STUDIES, CONSUMER ADVOCACY,
VOICE AND ACCOUNTABILITY, HOW
PEOPLE ARE ENGAGED IN THE
GOVERNANCE PROJECTS AND HOW THAT
CHANGES WITHIN OUR CHANGING
CLIMATE.
AND WORKERS RIGHTS, FAIR
COMPENSATION, WORKING CONDITIONS
IN FOOD AND WATER SYSTEMS.
INDICATORS IN THIS CONSTRUCT
INCLUDE EXAMINING FAIR WAGES,
MODERN SLAVERY, THE FOOD SYSTEM.
AND INCREASINGLY THE SOCIAL
ASPECT IS NOT LIMITED TO HUMANS
BUT HOW HUMANS INTERACT WITH
ANIMALS TO ENSURE HUMANE
TREATMENT.
AND THIS CAN INCLUDE MEASURING
CORTISOL LEVELS WITHIN ANIMALS,
INDICATORS OF REPORT OF INJURY
AND MORTALITY.
HERE ON THIS SLIDE WE WANTED TO
WALK THROUGH SOME METRIC
EXAMPLES, GIVEN DIVERSITY OF
SCALE AND SCOPE OF THE SOCIAL
MEASURES, YOU CAN SEE THAT
THERE'S SIMILAR SCALE AND SCOPE
AS WE LOOK AT THE INDICATORS.
THEY ARE OVERLAPPED IN THE
METRICS, THE OTHER DEMAINS OF
FOOD SYSTEMS AND CLIMATE CHANGE,
FOR EXAMPLE FOOD SECURITY,
DIETARY DIVERSITY AT THE
POPULATION LEVEL ALSO IMPORTANT
IN THIS DOMAIN.
AS MARIE OUTLINED ANYPLACE STUDY
DESIGN CAN BE EMPLOYED TO LOOK
AT THESE CHANGES IN SOCIAL
RELATED INDICATORS AS WELL.
THE MEASUREMENT, METHODS IN
SOCIAL AREAS SECONDARY DATA
OFTEN COLLECTED BY
GOVERNMENT-RELATED ORGANIZATIONS
OR MAY INCLUDE CONTENT ANALYSES
OR SURVEYS OR INTERVIEWS.
BUT THE POINT I WANTED TO MAKE
THEY ARE COLLECTED FOR THE
PRIMARY PURPOSE OF ASSESSING
IMPACT MUCH SUSTAINABILITY,
CLIMATE CHANGE ON SOCIAL
STRUCTURES OR INDICATORS,
METHODS WE HAVE NOW MAY NOT BE
IDEAL TO LOOK AT THESE SOCIAL
IMPACTS OVER TIME.
AS ZACH ALLUDED TO THERE'S
RECENT WORK TO SHOW THE SOCIAL
FACTORS AS RELATES TO
SUSTAINABILITY AND CLIMATE
CHANGE IS UNDERSTUDIED.
THIS WAS CONDUCTED, PUBLISHED IN
FRONTIERS BY WEBB ET AL. LOOKING
AT FOUR PILLARS ACROSS TIME.
YOU CAN SEE RELATIVE PUBLISHING
RATE OF STUDIES LOOKING AT
ASSOCIATE FACTORS IS RELATIVELY
LOW OVER THE PAST FIVE OR SIX
YEARS, AND SO WE REALLY NEED
INCREASED INVESTMENT IN
UNDERSTANDING HOW THE SOCIAL
PILLAR INTERACTION WORKS ON ITS
OWN BUT IMPORTANTLY HOW IT
INTERACTS WITH THE OTHER
DOMAINS.
AND SO I THINK THERE'S SOME KEY
OPPORTUNITIES THAT WE'RE GOING
TO TALK ABOUT MORE.
BUT THE EMPHASIS ON THE SOCIAL
MINIMUM AIR -- PILLAR, MEASURES
NEED MORE IMPLEMENTATION AND
VALIDATION ACROSS ALL FOOD
SYSTEM DOMAINS, AND ACROSS ALL
DIFFERENT ANALYSES AS WE'VE
DISCUSSED TODAY.
>> CAN I INTERRUPT?
WE'RE SEEING YOUR NOTES VERSION
RATHER THAN THE SLIDE SHOW.
>>I'M SO SORRY.
>> YOU WERE INITIALLY SHOWING
SLIDE SHOW PRESENTATION BUT IT
SWITCHED OVER.
WE SEE THE SLIDES BUT NOT THE
SLIDE SHOW.
>> I'M TURNING THAT BOOK.
>>I THINK WE SEE THE SLIDE SHOW
NOW.
YOU SWITCHED BACK TO THE NOTES.
>> THERE WE GO.
>> OKAY.
>> ALL RIGHT.
I'M ALMOST DONE.
THE OTHER THING I THINK THE LAG
IN WHICH THE DATA IN WHICH
SOCIAL DATA ARE CURRENTLY
AVAILABLE IS IMPORTANT, IT'S
HARD TO ASSESS REALTIME IMPACTS,
AND THAT'S REALLY IMPORTANT TO
BE ABLE TO ASSESS WITH SOCIAL
FACTORS.
THERE HAS BEEN EMPHASIS ON
CERTAIN AREAS, REALLY IMPORTANT
AS WE'RE GOING TO HEAR ABOUT
FROM RAMIAH BUT GOING BEYOND
SOCIAL CONDITIONS AND GENDER
EFFECTS TO LOOK AT ASPECTS OF
THE SOCIAL EXPERIENCE AS RELATES
TO SUSTAINABILITY AND CLIMATE
CHANGE IS DESPERATELY NEEDED.
THIS IS SOMETHING WE TALKED
ABOUT, DEPENDING ON THE CONTEXT,
LENS WHICH PEOPLE ARE
EXPERIENCING THESE SOCIAL
FACTORS MATTERS AND THE
CONVERSATION IS STARKLY
DIFFERENT PARTICULARLY IF YOU'RE
LOOKING FROM AN LMIC VERSE U.S.
U.S. OR EUROPEAN VIEWPOINT.
AND REALLY UNDERSTANDING THAT WE
NEED TO COME TOGETHER A LITTLE
BIT BETTER AS WE ASSESS THESE
DIFFERENT SOCIAL FACTORS.
I HAVE THE PLEASURE OF TURNING
THE SLIDE SHOW OVER TO RAMIAH,
WHO HAS BEEN DOING SOME REALLY
IMPORTANT WORK LOOKING AT GENDER
AND ITS IMPACT ON CLIMATE
CHANGE, IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE
ON GENDER AND OTHER SOCIAL
FACTORS.
RAMYA, PLEASE.
>>HI.
LET ME SEE IF I -- YOU DON'T SEE
MY NOTES, RIGHT?
>>YES, WE'RE SEEING THE SLIDE
SHOW.
>> GREAT.
THANK YOU, BRUCE.
HI, I'M SO EXCITED TO BE HERE.
IT'S A BIT LAST MINUTE, I JUST
CAME ON.
REALLY EXCITED THAT NIH IS DOING
THIS.
I'M RAMYA AMBIKAPATHI, GLOBAL
CHANGE GROUP, CORNELL
UNIVERSITY, TALKING ABOUT THE
BIG GNAR -- NARRATIVES AND
SUSTAINABLE, IMPLICATION ON
METHODS, METRICS AND TOOLS AS
WELL.
FROM THE PREVIOUS WORKING GROUP
IT SEEMS LIKE IT'S BEEN WELL
ESTABLISHED, THERE'S A
BIDIRECTIONAL RELATIONSHIP WITH
CLIMATE CHANGE, NUTRITION
OUTCOMES, BURDENS OF NUTRITION
OUTCOMES, ALSO CLIMATE CHANGE,
CONTRIBUTE TO CLIMATE CHANGE.
IN TURN CLIMATE CHANGE ALSO
AFFECTS NUTRITION, FOOD PRICES,
OTHER MECHANISMS.
FOR THE PURPOSE OF THIS
PRESENTATION I'LL JUST FOCUS ON
THE BIDIRECTIONAL RELATIONSHIP.
IF YOU LOOK AT THE COMMON
NARRATIVES, THERE'S THE CAUSES
OF CLIMATE CHANGE, IN TERMS OF
SUSTAINABILITY, THERE'S HIGH
INCOME COUNTRY NARRATIVE
TYPICALLY FROM THE U.S. OR
EUROPEAN NARRATIVE, WE NEED TO
THINK ABOUT SUSTAINABILITY.
SO YOU HAVE EAT LANCET DIET,
AFFORDABILITY, FOOD WASTE, AND
THEN YOU HAVE THIS OTHER
NARRATIVE WHICH IS MOSTLY WHERE
I WORK, CONSEQUENCE OF CLIMATE
CHANGE, IMPACT, SEA LEVEL RISE,
TEMPERATURE, DROUGHT, FLOODING,
SOIL EROSION, THE IMPACTS THAT
AFFECT FOOD PRODUCTION, ACCESS
TO BASIC SERVICES.
THOSE NARRATIVES, IF YOU ASK
WHAT SUSTAINABILITY MEANS, AN
AFRICAN COUNTRY, SOUTHEAST ASIA,
YOU WILL HAVE WIDELY DIFFERENT
DEFINITIONS IN TERMS OF WHAT THE
GOVERNANCE OF THINGS IS, FOOD
SOVEREIGNTY, FOOD SECURITY, FOOD
ACCESS, FOOD CHOICE, FOCUSING
MORE ON FOOD LOSS WHICH IS A
DIFFERENT ASPECT OF THE FOOD
SYSTEMS.
SO THERE IS A STANDARD A STANDD
DEFINITION, SUSTAINABILITY, BUT
WHAT IT REALLY MEANS TO
DIFFERENT COUNTRIES AND
DIFFERENT CONTEXTS IS VERY
DIFFERENT.
THAT ACTUALLY FOR THINKING ABOUT
ONE MEASURE ACROSS HIGH AND LOW
INCOME COUNTRY, I THINK WE JUST
HAVE TO THINK ABOUT WHAT THAT
REALLY MEANS AND WHAT WE'RE
TRYING TO CAPTURE IN TERMS OF IF
IT'S AN INDEX OR TOOL, A MEASURE
CAPTURED ACROSS DIFFERENT
CONTEXTS.
SO, I'M GOING TO FOCUS ON JUST
CONSEQUENCES OF CLIMATE CHANGE,
PRIMARILY ON DIETS.
ACCESS TO DIET, ACCESS TO
HEALTHY DIET, MY BACKGROUND.
I'M GOING TO FOCUS ON THAT.
WHEN WE THINK ABOUT ACCESS TO
DIETS, FOOD CHOICE, WHAT ARE THE
DIFFERENT DRIVERS OF FOOD
CHOICE, THIS IS, AGAIN, I LOVE
THAT MARIE SET THE STAGE FOR THE
TURNER GRAHAM -- TURNER
FRAMEWORK.
WE LOOKED AT OPERATIONALIZED FOR
THE FAMILY AT THE HOUSEHOLD
LEVEL, BRINGING TOGETHER
HOUSEHOLD INTERACTION, THINKING
ABOUT THINGS THAT AFFECT GENDER
ROLES, SOMEONE IS WORKING AT THE
HOUSE, YOU KNOW, THE WOMAN IS
WORKING AT THE HOUSE WHERE YOU
START TO SEE THE DIFFERENCES IN
TERMS OF LIKE ACCESS TO FOOD,
KIND OF PREPARATION, TIMING
ISN'T EVERYTHING.
WE DID THIS WORK IN TANZANIA.
A LOT OF THIS, SOME IS REALLY
UNIVERSAL ACROSS HIGH-INCOME
COUNTRIES.
THE FOOD CHOICE WITH ONE OF
THOSE INDICATORS ESPECIALLY THE
TIME USED, WE HAVE THIS
GLOBALIZED NINE TO FIVE
SCHEDULE, SCHOOL, WORK, WE HAVE
THIS TIMING IS CONSTRAINED OR
CONVENIENCE FACTOR THAT WE'RE
JUST TRYING EXPRESS.
IT COMES OUT IN OUR FOOD CHOICE.
ESPECIALLY THE CHANGES IN GENDER
ROLES, CLASSIC NUTRITION
TRANSITION, YOU START SEEING
LIKE WHEN WOMEN STARTED TO WORK
OUTSIDE THE HOME WHEN YOU
STARTED TO SEE, OKAY, YOU NEED
MORE CONVENIENCE FOOD, PREPARED
FOODS.
ONE OF THE KEY THINGS THAT WE
GOT OUT OF THE STUDY THAT WE
LEARNED FROM THE STUDY IS THAT
THE AMOUNT YOU SPEND FOR HEALTH
EXPENDITURE AFFECTS HOW MUCH YOU
HAVE FOR FOOD EXPENDITURE, HOW
MUCH HAVE YOU IN TERMS OF ACCESS
TO HEALTHY DIETS.
IN TERMS OF THINKING ABOUT BROAD
TRENDS WITH THE EXPECTED SORT OF
INCREASE IN NON-COMMUNICABLE
DISEASES, IF IT'S HAPPENING AT
THE FAMILY LEVEL, IT'S GOING TO
BE INCREASED PREVALENCE,
INCREASED BUDGETARY, ESPECIALLY
THINKING ABOUT HEALTH AND FOOD
EXPENDITURE, IT'S AN IMPORTANT
INDICATOR TO BE THINKING ABOUT
AS WE THINK ABOUT ACCESS TO
HEALTHY DIETS.
AND THEN JUST REALLY THERE'S SO
MUCH I WANT TO TALK ABOUT, FOCUS
ON BROAD BIG POINTS THAT ARE
REALLY IMPORTANT, REALLY
VALUABLE FOR METHODS
CONSIDERATIONS.
THERE ISN'T ONE FOOD SYSTEM,
EVEN IN THE INDIANA -- INDIA IS
GREAT EXAMPLE, HIGHLY DIVERSE
AND CONTEXTUAL.
IN TERMS OF SHOCKS FELT LIKE THE
DROUGHT VERSUS FLOODS, THEY HAVE
DIFFERENT SORT OF SLOW VERSUS
RAPID ONSET OF SHOCK, DIFFERENT
IMPACT IN TERMS OF FOOD.
THE BIGGEST FOR LOW- AND
MIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIES LARGEST
SOURCES OF MICRO NUTRIENTS COMES
FROM STAPLES, LARGER IMPACT.
THE KIND OF CHANGES THAT HAPPENS
VARIES BY SHOCKS.
THINKING ABOUT THE DIVERSITY OF
CONTEXT REALLY MATTERS IN TERMS
OF FOOD ACCESS, ALSO IN TERMS OF
MICRONUTRIENT STATUS.
YOU'RE STILL DEALING WITH ISSUES
OF SEASONALITY, UNFORTUNATELY I
DON'T THINK WE HAVE NOT FULLY
SOLVED SEASONAL CONSUMPTION THAT
STILL HAPPENS, NOW YOU HAVE MORE
EXTREME SEASONALITY TYPE EVENTS
THAT CAN UNDERTAKE THAT WILL
PROBABLY HAPPEN UNDER THESE
CLIMATE SHOCKS, OR ARE HAPPENING
UNDER CLIMATE SHOCKS.
I TALKED ABOUT GENDER ROLES.
THIS IS A VERY BIG LILT A --
LITERATURE WELL STUDIED.
GENDERED IMIMPACT, WOMEN,
ESPECIALLY IN AGRICULTURE, THEY
WERE IN THE LOWER WAGES, LOWER
PRODUCTIVITY, HIGHER ENERGY
EXPENDITURE, THEY REALLY HAVE A
VERY VARIED IMPACT UNDER CLIMATE
CHANGE AND THINKING ABOUT, OKAY,
THIS IS HAPPENING, WE'VE SEEN
THIS.
IT'S GOING TO AFFECT SAMPLING
DESIGN, INCLUDING MARGINALIZED
WOMEN WHO HAVE MORE ROAMS WHEN
THERE'S A HIGH MALE MIGRATION,
CHANGES IN GENDER ROLES, IT'S
REALLY GOING TO IMPACT IN TERMS
OF SAMPLING.
I'LL TALK MORE ABOUT WHAT I MEAN
BY SAMPLING DESIGN.
THE MIGRATION LITERATURE UNDER
CLIMATE CHANGE, THE BIG PICTURES
IS THAT PEOPLE WHO ARE ABLE TO
MOVE WILL MOVE.
IN THE SAME PLACE YOU CAN GO AND
YOU'LL REPEATEDLY FIND MORE AND
MORE AND MORE MARGINALIZED
COMMUNITIES, MORE MARGINALIZED
POPULATION, THROUGH MIGRATION
YOU SEE CHANGES IN POPULATION
DEMOGRAPHICS.
SAME COMMUNITY, YOU GO BACK
EVERY TWO OR THREE YEARS,
CHANGES EPIDEMIOLOGY OF LIKE
THINKING ABOUT KNEW TRYINGS --
NUTRITION, ALSO IN DISEASE.
YOU GO BACK TO THE COMMUNITY,
DEMOGRAPHIC CONSTANTLY CHANGES
AND BECOMES IN PLACES WITH
CLIMATE SHOCKS OR HOT SPOTS,
PEOPLE ABLE TO LEAVE ARE
LEAVING.
PEOPLE WHO ARE NOT ABLE TO
LEAVE, REALLY MARGINALIZED ARE
STAYING BEHIND.
WHEN WE THINK ABOUT
INTERSECTIONALITY RESPONSE RATES
EVEN IN NHANES, VERY DIFFERENT
RESPONSE RATE BETWEEN NON-WHITE
AND WHITE SAMPLES.
THAT SORT OF THINKING OF
INCLUSIVE SAMPLING DESIGN HOW TO
TARGET THE POPULATION IS GOING
TO BE VERY IMPORTANT.
ANOTHER BROAD TREND, SPATIAL AND
SUBURBANIZATION THAT'S
HAPPENING, THERE'S DIFFERENT
TERMS FOR THIS, RURAL
URBANIZATION IS ANOTHER, IT'S
THIS PREDICTION THE LARGEST
GROWTH IN LOW AND MIDDLE INCOME
COUNTRIES IS SECONDARY CITIES
AND TOWNS, ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN
AFRICA, SOUTHEAST ASIA.
YOU'RE NOT SEEING TOWARDS BIG
URBAN POPULATION CENTERS BUT
SECONDARY SMALLER TOWNS.
THERE'S GOING TOSH A REALLY BIG
NEED FOR NATIONAL DATA.
I'M SURE THAT'S EXPRESSED IN THE
LAST COUPLE WORKING GROUPS AS
WELL.
A LOT OF INDICATORS AND TOOLS,
IT'S AT THE NATIONAL LEVEL WHICH
TENDS TO BE BIASED FROM URBAN,
PROBABLY REPRESENTING MORE OF
THE URBAN AREAS.
INDICATORS, LOOKING AT NATIONAL
INDICATORS, REFERENCES URBAN
AREAS WITHIN A COUNTRY THAN THE
SECONDARY CITIES AND TOWNS.
THINKING ABOUT WHAT AN INDICATOR
REPRESENTS IS GOING TO BE
DIFFERENT.
THERE'S LOTS OF REASONS WE NEED
NATIONAL DATA.
A LOT OF VULNERABILITY
RESILIENCY THINKING HAS POB TO
BE -- TO BE BROUGHT IN, IN TERMS
OF IMPACT, SO VULNERABILITY IS
CAPACITY TO ADAPT, EXPOSURE TO
SHOCKS, A LOT OF VULNERABILITY
ASSESSMENTS ARE VERY HIGHER
SPATIAL LEVEL, NOT DONE AT THE
COMMUNITY LEVEL WHICH VARIES
WITHIN A COMMUNITY TO COMMUNITY,
VILLAGE TO VILLAGE, HOUSEHOLD TO
HOUSEHOLD SO A NEED FOR GRANULAR
VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT.
LASTLY, I THINK MARIE TOUCHED
UPON THIS, WHEN WE'RE LOOKING AT
SOCIAL OUTCOMES, IT IS A VERY
TRANSDISCIPLINARY AND
INTERDISCIPLINARY VERY -- IT'S
NOT ONE SORT OF METHOD THAT
REALLY GRASPS AT WHAT'S GOING
ON.
FROM MY EXPERIENCE FROM DOING
STUDIES WHERE WE LOOKED AT
CLIMATE CHANGE HOT SPOTS, IT'S
REALLY -- MULTIPLE METHODS
ELUCIDATE A LOT MORE WHAT'S
HAPPENING ON THE GROUND.
AND THEN I KIND OF MENTIONED
THIS BUT GENERALLY METRICS
INDICATORS THAT CAPTURE ACROSS
HIGH INCOME AND LOW INCOME VERY
LIMITED.
SOMETHING THAT'S ACROSS LIKE THE
CAPTURE OF THE NEED, POPULATION
NEEDS ACROSS HIGH AND LOW AND
MIDDLE INCOME LOW- AND
MIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIES ARE
LIMITED.
COST OF HEALTHY DIET IS CLOSER.
I THINK GENERALLY THINKING
ACROSS CONTEXT, UNIVERSAL
INDICATORS TEND TO BE BIASED TO
URBAN AREAS, HIGH INCOME COUNTRY
OR DIFFERENT KINDS OF
DEFINITIONS THAT ARE NOT
GENERALIZABLE.
AND THEN I LOVE THIS QUOTE.
SOMEONE MENTIONED THIS EARLIER
AS WELL.
THERE'S SORT OF THIS FOOD AND
DIET AND NUTRITION, TWO DIVIDING
CULTURES, PRE-SWALLOWING DOMAIN,
THERE'S A HUGE NUMBER OF
DISCIPLINES THAT GO INTO IT,
EVEN THINKING ABOUT -- FOOD IS
PERSONAL AND POLITICAL.
IT'S AN EXPRESSION OF IDENTITY,
FAMILY VALUES, EXPRESSION OF A
LOT OF THINGS.
STATUS, CLASS, CULTURE.
TO BE THINKING ABOUT THOSE
THINGS NEEDS A WIDE VARIETY OF
DISCIPLINES THAT I THINK -- AND
WIDE VARIETY OF PERSPECTIVES IN
TERMS -- NOT EVEN IN TERMS OF
LIKE, YOU KNOW, DISCIPLINES BUT
ALSO IN TERMS OF LIKE
METHODOLOGICAL APPROACHES, IT'S
GOING TO BE VERY IMPORTANT.
THAT'S ALL I HAVE.
SORRY, THAT WAS VERY JAM-PACKED
BECAUSE I DID NOT HAVE TIME BUT
I'M HAPPY TO ANSWER ANY
QUESTIONS.
>> THANK YOU SO MUCH, RAMIYA,
THAT WAS FANTASTIC.
>> THANK YOU.
>> JAM-PACKED, EXPECTING YOU TO
COVER SOCIAL INFLUENCES AROUND
THE WORLD, FABULOUS DISTILLATION
OF SOME KEY ISSUES AND REALLY A
GREAT CONVERSATION AND
DISCUSSION OPENER, BOTH OF YOU
REALLY PROVIDED A LOT OF
QUOTE/UNQUOTE FOOD FOR THOUGHT.
ZACH, INITIAL THOUGHTS?
>> YOU KNOW, SOMETHING I'VE
BEEN WONDERING MORE ABOUT AS
WE'VE SEEN SOCIAL LIFE CYCLE
ASSESSMENTS COME OUT, YOU KNOW,
WONDERING WHAT YOU THINK ABOUT
THE VALUE OF THOSE AND WHETHER
WE COULD USE THOSE TO GENERATE
MORE METRICS FOR SOME OF THESE
INDICATORS OF SOCIAL
SUSTAINABILITY THAT MIGHT HAVE
PREVIOUSLY BEEN HARD TO GRASP,
REALLY HARD TO QUANTIFY,
WONDERING IF YOU THINK THAT'S A
VALUABLE APPROACH OR SOME
INDICATORS WE WOULDN'T BE ABLE
TO CAPTURE IN A SOCIAL LCA?
>> I'M GOING TO LET MEG ANSWER.
I'LL JUST SAY EVEN ASKING WHAT
SUSTAINABILITY MEANS TO
DIFFERENT INSTITUTIONS, LIKE A
NUTRITION INSTITUTION IN INDIA,
WHAT DOES SUSTAINABILITY MEAN TO
YOU, EVEN ASKING THAT QUESTION
ACROSS INSTITUTIONS, ACROSS LIKE
DIFFERENT INTEREST GROUPS AND
ADVOCACY GROUPS COULD GO A LONG
WAY HOW WE DEFINE SOCIAL
SUSTAINABILITY OR SOCIAL ASPECTS
OF SUSTAINABILITY.
I DON'T KNOW MUCH ABOUT SOCIAL
LCA.
I HAVE TO READ MORE, I'M GOING
TO GO SOMEONE ELSE.
>> I'M ALSO NOT FAMILIAR, ZACH.
MAYBE YOU COULD ELUCIDATE FOR
US.
>> YEAH, THERE WAS EVEN BETTER
PEOPLE THAN ME TO SPEAK IT TO
BUT BASICALLY EVALUATING --
COMING UP WITH SYSTEMATIC WAY TO
EVALUATE THROUGH QUANTIFICATION
IN THE FOOD SYSTEM, WHAT ARE
THE -- FOR ANY GIVEN INDICATOR
WHAT ARE THE QUANTIFIED IMPACTS
THAT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
MULTIPLE STAGES THROUGHOUT THE
FOOD SYSTEM OR TO WHATEVER
BOUNDARIES WE WANT TO BOUND OR
ANALYSES ON.
ONE RECENT EXAMPLE IS FORCED
LABOR, RIGHT?
MAYBE THIS IS A QUESTION THAT I
SHOULD REACH OUT TO THE AUTHORS
OF THAT WORK FOR ABOUT HOW
EXACTLY DO YOU MOVE FROM
SOMETHING LIKE A CONCEPT LIKE
FORCED LABOR TO SOMETHING YOU
CAN QUANTIFY, RIGHT?
SO AS WE THINK MORE AND DISCUSS
MORE ABOUT INDICATORS AND
METRICS TO MEASURE THOSE
INDICATORS AS PART OF THIS
WORKING GROUP THAT WAS JUST
SOMETHING, A LINGERING QUESTION
THAT I HAD, JUST WANTED TO THROW
TO THE GROUP.
>> YEAH, I SAW A RECENT PAPER,
I THINK NATURE, RISK OF FORCED
LABOR IN DIFFERENT COMMODITY
PRODUCTS, OBVIOUSLY THE SMALLER
THE CROPS, THE HERBS,
STRAWBERRIES, LITTLE THINGS THAT
REQUIRE LITTLE PEOPLE HANDS HAVE
HIGHER FORCED LABOR, THEY WERE
ABLE TO TRACK FORCED LABOR
ACROSS COMMODITIES EXPORTED,
FROM PERU, ECUADOR.
IT'S GREAT WE'RE ABLE TO TRACK
SOME OF THIS.
A LOT OF -- I'M CURIOUS HOW
EVERYBODY DOES FOOD SYSTEMS
WORK.
ESPECIALLY IN VALUE CHAIN,
EVALUATING PRACTICE, THE LEAST
TRANSPARENT, YOU HAVE SO MUCH
DATA ON AGRICULTURE, SO MUCH ON
PRODUCTION, AND SO MUCH ON THE
OTHER END.
BUT YOU HAVE VERY LITTLE SO IN
TERMS OF WHO IS PROCESSING AND
DOING IT, WHO IS DOING SOME OF
THIS I THINK WOULD BE VERY
VALUABLE.
IT'S JUST A GIANT BLACK BOX, A
LOT IS PROPRIETARY, FOOD
INDUSTRIES DON'T WANT TO SHARE
THESE THINGS.
ALSO THINKING ABOUT DO CONSUMERS
VALUE THIS.
IF I TELL YOU CASHEWS LEAD TO
HORRIBLE CHEMICALS, PEOPLE HAVE
DISMEMBERED HANDS AND FINGERS,
WOULD THAT CHANGE YOUR FOOD
CHOICE?
I THINK THAT'S ALSO VERY
VALUABLE.
I DON'T KNOW LIKE IT MIGHT VARY
BY SOCIOECONOMIC STATUS, WHAT
SOME OF THESE FACTORS AFFECT,
HOW SOME SOCIAL ASPECTS VARIES
PROBABLY BY SOCIOECONOMIC STATUS
BUT IT IS A TOPIC THAT'S
BEING -- THIS IS THE U.S.,
RIGHT?
I'M IN CORNELL, YOU GO 30
MINUTES AWAY, YOU CAN SEE
UNDOCUMENTED WORKERS, THOSE
STRUGGLES STILL EXIST IN THE
U.S., NOT JUST SOMETHING WE SEE
IN LOW- AND MIDDLE-INCOME
COUNTRIES.
WE HAVE THESE SOCIAL THINGS BUT
DOES THAT AFFECT CONSUMER
CHOICES, FOOD CHOICE?
SO WHAT?
WE KNOW IT'S MORALLY BAD BUT
WHAT CAN WE DO?
CAN WE CHANGE IT?
YOU KNOW, I'LL LEAVE THAT AS MY
TWO CENTS.
>> AFTER A QUICK GOOGLE THERE'S
SOMETHING WE SHOULD EXPLORE AS
PART OF THIS WORK GROUP AS AN
ANALYTIC TOOL FOR THE SOCIAL
ASPECTS FOR SURE.
>> ONE QUESTION THAT HAS BEEN
COMING UP IS SORT OF LIKE THE
UNIT OF MEASURES AND HOW TO
GROUP DIFFERENT ELEMENTS OR
COMPONENTS IN THE DIFFERENT
SYSTEMS.
TRADITIONALLY THERE'S BEEN
CERTAIN DEMOGRAPHIC GROUPS OR
PARAMETERS USED BUT MANY TIMES
THEY CAN BE OVERSIMPLIFICATION,
DON'T REPRESENTATIVE
HETEROGENEITY.
MANY TIMES HETEROGENEITY IS
GREATER ACROSS DEMOGRAPHIC
GROUPS.
SO, I GUESS ONE QUESTION IS HOW
DO WE -- SIMILAR TO BEFORE, HOW
DO WE DIAL DOWN TO WHERE WE'RE
CAPTURING EACH OF THESE
UNIQUE -- EACH PERSON HAS HIS OR
HER UNIQUE FACTORS, INFLUENCES,
AND POSITION WITHIN SOCIETY OR
THE POPULATION, BUT ALSO HAVE
BROAD ENOUGH MEASURES TO REFLECT
POLICIES AND INTERVENTIONS AND
THOSE THINGS LIKE THAT.
I WANTED TO SEE IF YOU HAD
IMMEDIATE THOUGHTS ABOUT THAT.
AND PLUS IN ADDITION WE DO KNOW
A LOT OF THESE THINGS ARE
EVOLVING SO WE'RE STARTING TO
SEE, YOU KNOW, NEW POCKETS OF
DISADVANTAGED GROUPS OR GROUPS
FACING CHALLENGES THAT PEOPLE
DIDN'T EVEN REALIZE TEN YEARS
AGO, TWENTY YEARS AGO,
ESPECIALLY AS SOCIETY CHANGES.
>> I CAN TAKE A STAB.
I THINK MARIE ANSWERED
ELOQUENTLY.
I THINK YOU'RE ABSOLUTELY RIGHT,
THERE'S -- SYSTEMS ARE DYNAMIC,
AFFECTING INDIVIDUALS VERSUS
POPULATIONS IS REAL ACROSS THE
ENTIRE SPECTRUM.
AND I THINK WORK GROUPS AND
EFFORTS LIKE THIS WHERE WE CAN
COME TOGETHER AND IDENTIFY
COMMON METRICS ACROSS
POPULATIONS AND ANALYTIC TOOLS
MAY BE AN APPROACH TO GET AT
PRECISION OF INDIVIDUAL LEVEL,
ALSO AT THE ECOLOGICAL LEVEL AS
WELL.
MY INITIAL THOUGHTS.
>> I THINK THE DATA NEEDS, LIKE
ROUTINE DATA COLLECTION, FOR AT
LEAST NUTRITION, ACTUAL DIETARY
INTAKE, BUT IT'S GOING TO BE
REALLY, REALLY IMPORTANT.
I KNOW AS MARIE MENTIONED, FAO,
FOOD SUPPLY DATA, IT'S A
MISNOMER.
THEY SAY CONSUMPTION, IT'S
NOT -- THERE'S SO MUCH ERROR, O
I THINK IN TERMS OF THE DATA
NEEDS, EVEN THE BASIC DATA
DESCRIPTIVE NEEDS IS GOING TO BE
REALLY MORE VALUABLE AND
COLLECTING MORE ROUTINELY IS
GOING TO BE VALUABLE SO WE CAN
DETECT THESE LIKE HOW IS
POPULATION CHANGING, HOW IS
CONSUMPTION CHANGING, SO I KNOW
IT SOUNDS BASIC BUT INVESTMENT
INTO BASIC DATA INFRASTRUCTURE
IS GOING TO BE VERY CRITICAL.
>> I AGREE WITH THAT.
I HAD TO HOP OFF FOR A BIT,
THAT'S EXACTLY WHAT THE CALL WAS
ABOUT.
EVERYBODY ON THIS GROUP WOULD
AGREE THAT BETTER ASSESSMENT OF
DIETARY INTAKE IS NEEDED IN
EVERY SCALE, EVERY ASPECT.
THANK YOU FOR RAISING THAT,
RAMIYA.
>> THANK YOU, MEGAN AND RAMIY
IS.
THIS IS ANOTHER CONVERSATION
THAT COULD GO ON LONGER, SO MUCH
TO SAY.
FANTASTIC JOB OF REALLY TACKLING
A VERY BROAD SUBJECT WITH SO
MUCH COMPLEXITY AND DISTILLING
DOWN TO KEY ISSUES OR KEY
INSIGHTS THAT WE NEED TO
CONSIDER.
WE'RE AT THE END OF THE
WORKSHOP, CLOSING IN FIVE
MINUTES.
I THINK IT'S TIME FOR US TO DO
SOME WRAP-UP, MAYBE CLOSING
THOUGHTS AND THEN QUICK MENTION
OF WHAT THE NEXT STEPS OF OUR
WORKING GROUP MIGHT BE.
ZACH, DO YOU HAVE ANY CLOSING
THOUGHTS?
>> YEAH, YOU KNOW, WHAT WE
TALKED ABOUT TODAY I WANT TO
REEMPHASIZE WE TALKED IN FOUR
DIFFERENT DOMAINS, WHILE AT THE
SAME TIME EVERY ONE OF OUR
SPEAKERS REALLY EMPHASIZED THE
NEED TO BE INTEGRATING THESE
DOMAINS.
SO, I THINK THAT WE NEED TO BE
THINKING ABOUT NOT JUST HOW
WE'RE INTEGRATING TWO DOMAINS
TOGETHER.
I'VE BEEN SPEAKING MYSELF, SOME
QUESTIONS, FOR EXAMPLE, WHAT'S
THIS RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN DIET
QUALITY AND, FOR EXAMPLE, THE
PRICE OF FOOD OR AMOUNT OF MONEY
WE'RE SPENDING ON FOOD, RIGHT?
WE CAN ASK THE SAME QUESTIONS
ABOUT RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ANY
OF THE TWO DOMAINS BUT SOMETHING
THAT'S BEEN COMING OUT MORE IN
THE LITERATURE IS WHAT HAPPENS
WHEN WE CAN'T MAXIMIZE EVERY
DOMAIN AT THE SAME TIME, RIGHT?
AND SO WHAT ARE THE DIFFERENT
SOCIETAL VALUES THAT WE SHOULD
BE PLACING AT ANY GIVEN TIME,
ARE WE MOSTLY FOCUSED FOR ONE
PARTICULAR POLICY QUESTION ON
MAXIMIZING HEALTH OUTCOMES AND
ARE WE WILLING TO SETTLE FOR
MAYBE SUBOPTIMAL OUTCOMES?
IN A DEPEND ON POLICY RELEVANCE
OF THAT QUESTION.
I'M JUST MENTIONING THAT TO GET
US TO ALSO BE THINKING ABOUT
WE'VE BEEN TALKING ABOUT DY
NAMISM.
WE SHOULD APPLY THE CONCEPT TO
HOW WE'RE GOING TO USE THOSE
MODELS TO ANSWER POLICY
QUESTIONS.
MAYBE WE REALLY NEED TO BE
THINKING HOW WE USE THE SAME
MODEL, SAME METRICS, IN
DIFFERENT WAYS DEPENDING ON
CONTEXT, A BIT OF A WRINKLE BUT
NEXT STEPS WE NEED TO THINK
ABOUT AS WE MOVE FORWARD WITH
THIS WORK.
>> EXCELLENT POINT.
YOU MENTION THE DYNAMISM WE HAVE
TO CONSIDER, THERE'S NO
SITUATION WHERE WE'RE SAYING
THIS IS THE ONE METRIC WE WANT
TO OPTIMIZE.
THERE'S GOING TO BE A RANGE OF
LOCAL MINIMAL AND LOCAL MAXIMAL,
OVERLAPPING IN EXCEEDINGLY
COMPLEX WAYS, WHICH BRINGS UP
ANOTHER ISSUE THAT'S COME UP
REPEATEDLY THROUGHOUT EACH OF
THE SESSIONS, THE QUESTION OF
SCALE.
SO, YOU'RE DEALING WITH MULTIPLE
SCALES, AND SO HOW DO YOU LINK
SCALES, A OF IN TERMS OF DATA
COLLECTION, IF YOU'RE MEASURING
SOMETHING LIKE GDP AT COUNTRY
LEVEL WE KNOW THAT DOESN'T
NECESSARILY -- CERTAINLY DOESN'T
REFLECT
REFLECT HETEROGENEITY, DIFFERENT
SUBPOPULATIONS IN THE OVERALL
POPULATION, THEY ARE
EXPERIENCING DIFFERENT ECONOMIC
REALITIES.
THERE'S VALUE IN TERMS OF
COALESCING SO IT CAN REFLECT
NATIONAL POLICY MAKING, LOOKING
AT SCALES WILL BE A CONTINUING
ISSUE TO THINK ABOUT.
ALSO THEN ALSO HOW DO YOU THEN
MATCH UP DATA COLLECTION.
THROUGHOUT THIS DAY WE'VE
IDENTIFIED THERE'S CERTAIN AREAS
THAT ARE BETTER TRODDEN THAN
OTHERS, SO FOR INSTANCE ALEX
MENTIONED PARTICULAR AREAS
WITHIN ENVIRONMENTAL MODELING
THAT ARE MORE ADVANCED THAN
OTHER AREAS, AND THERE ARE AREAS
WHERE THERE'S BEEN LESS
ACTIVITY, AND PROBABLY NEED FOR
MORE LINKAGES.
FOR INSTANCE, CERTAIN GAPS IN
TERMS OF OPERATIONAL MODEL, ET
CETERA.
ONE THING WE CAN DO IS DETERMINE
WHERE ARE THOSE GAPS AND WHERE
ARE LINKAGES, CRUCIAL IN
INTEGRATING ALL THESE THINGS.
OKAY.
WITH THAT WE HAVE ABOUT A
MINUTE.
AND SO WE WANT TO GIVE OTHERS
OPPORTUNITY TO CHIME IN BEFORE
NEXT STEPS.
DAN, YOU OPENED UP THE DAY.
ANY THOUGHTS IN TERMS OF CLOSING
THOUGHTS OR CONSIDERATIONS?
>> I THANK EVERYBODY FOR A
FABULOUS SESSION, SPOTO -- SPOT
ON AND COVERED WHAT WE NEEDED TO
COVER, SET OUT A ROAD MAP TO
PROCEED.
I MIGHT PUT A DIFFERENT SPIN
JUST TO BE CONTROVERSIAL.
WE'VE REALLY FOCUSED ON
SUSTAINABILITY OF FOOD SYSTEMS
AND THE FOUR DOMAINS, REALLY
TARGETING FOOD SYSTEMS.
I MIGHT SUGGEST THAT WE THINK
ABOUT SUSTAINABILITY OF HEALTH
AND NUTRITION AS WE POINTED OUT
EARLY NUTRITION BEING, YOU KNOW,
A KEY COMPONENT OF HEALTH AND
REALLY TIED TO THE BIOLOGY OF
HEALTH.
I DON'T THINK THAT'S BEEN DONE.
I THINK ALL THE DOMAINS ARE
RELEVANT.
EVERYTHING DISCUSSED TODAY IS
RELEVANT TO THAT BUT TO FOCUS ON
PROGRAMS, POLICIES,
INTERVENTIONS, THAT ARE
ADDRESSING THE RELATIONSHIP
BETWEEN DIET AND NUTRITION AND
HEALTH, SO IT'S JUST MAYBE A
DIFFERENCE WAY OF LOOKING AT IT,
SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT.
I THINK WHAT YOU PRESENTED TODAY
REALLY DOES REINFORCE THE NOTION
OF ECOLOGICAL POINT OF VIEW,
YOU'VE MADE A TREMENDOUS CASE
FOR THE IMPORTANCE OF TAKING
ECOLOGICAL POINT OF VIEW, AND
BEING ABLE TO ACTUALIZE, HOW WE
DO THESE ANALYSES IS GOING TO BE
CRITICAL.
IT'S A DAUNTING SET OF ISSUES.
BUT WHAT WE'VE HEARD TODAY IS
CLEARLY AN INDICATION WE'RE NOT
DAUNTED BY IT, WE'RE MOVING
FORWARD IN AN EFFECTIVE WAY, I'M
GRATEFUL FOR EVERYBODY'S EFFORTS
HERE TODAY.
WITH THAT I WANT TO CLOSE BY
THANKING BRUCE, YOU, ZACH, AND
YOUR WHOLE TEAM, DEEPA, AND ALL
OF HER EFFORTS, ALL THE PEOPLE
WHO HAVE TUNED IN TODAY TO HELP
MAKE THIS A SUCCESS, SO THANK
YOU.
>> THANKS, DAN.
WE ALWAYS APPRECIATE YOUR
EFFORTS AND ALSO YOUR EFFORTS TO
EXPAND OUR THINKING AND THAT'S A
GREAT ADDITIONAL FOOD FOR
THOUGHT IN TERMS OF CONSIDERING
NUTRITION AND HEALTH
SUSTAINABILITY, VERY IMPORTANT
ISSUES, SOMETHING OUR WORKING
GROUP SHOULD KEEP IN MIND.
ZACH, ANY OTHER CLOSING
COMMENTS?
>>NO, THERE'S ALWAYS MORE TO
SAY, MORE I ALWAYS HAVE TO SAY
BUT WE CAN SAVE THAT FOR FURTHER
WORKING GROUP DISCUSSIONS AND
VERY OPEN TO THE FEEDBACK THAT
EVERYBODY PROVIDED AND WILL
PROVIDE IN THE FUTURE.
THANK YOU, EVERYBODY, WHO
CONTRIBUTED.
>>THANKS, ZACH.
AGAIN, WE'D LIKE TO THANK OUR
SECRETARIAT, DAN, DEEPA, ALISON,
FOR THIS OPPORTUNITY REALLY TO
EXPLORE IMPORTANT ISSUES AND
IMPORTANT QUESTIONS, WANTED TO
THANK OUR ENTIRE WORKING GROUP.
SO IN TERMS OF THE SPEAKERS, YOU
SAW MEMBERS LEADING DIFFERENT
SECTIONS OF THE WORKING GROUP,
BUT AS ZAK MENTIONED NOT
EVERYONE COULD BE HERE.
SO WE WANTED TO THANK THOSE WHO
HAVE BEEN CONTINUING TO
PARTICIPATE, AND CONTRIBUTING TO
THE EFFORTS THAT YOU'VE SEEN
TODAY, AND WORKING GROUP IN
GENERAL.
THANK YOU ALL.
AND CERTAINLY LAST BUT NOT LEAST
I'D LIKE TO THANK MY FANTASTIC
CO-CHAIR, ZACH.
CONTINUES TO BE GREAT PLEASURE
WORKING WITH ZACH, REALLY ENERGY
AND FORCE BEHIND MOVING OUR
WORKING GROUP ACTIVITIES
FORWARD.
THANKS AGAIN, ZACH.
IT'S BEEN TERRIFIC BEING A
CO-CHAIR WITH YOU.
WE ALSO WANT TO THANK THE FOLKS
BEHIND THE SCENES, AMY AND
OTHERS WHO PUT ON THIS
PRODUCTION AND VIDEO, ALLOWED
YOU TO SEE IT.
THANK YOU FOR HELPING ORGANIZE
THIS WORKSHOP.
AND NEXT STEPS, ARE WE GOING TO
MOVE FORWARD WITH THINGS
DISCUSSED, CONTINUE TO HASH OUT
DIFFERENT METRICS AND
MEASUREMENTS, METHODOLOGIES,
MODELS, THOSE THINGS, TO BETTER
UNDERSTAND THESE COMPLEX SYSTEMS
AND CONTINUE TO INTERFACE WITH
THE OTHER WORKING GROUPS, SO
THAT THERE CAN BE A FRESH
EXCHANGE OF DIFFERENT TIMES OF
IDEAS.
ZACH, SHALL WE CLOSE IT UP?
>>LET'S CLOSE IT UP.
THANK YOU, EVERYBODY.
>> WE ENCOURAGE EVERYBODY TO
TUNE IN JUNE 11, OR JUNE 12, FOR
THE FINAL WORKSHOP, WORKING
GROUP 5 WILL COVER A LOT OF
ISSUES THAT WERE RAISED TODAY
AND WILL BE AN IMPORTANT
CONCLUSION TO THIS SERIES.
THANK YOU, EVERYBODY.