MY NAME IS DREW BREMER, IT IS
AGAIN MY PLEASURE TO WELCOME YOU
TO THE THIRD MEETING FOR THE
AGRICULTURE AND DIET VALUE ADDED
FOR NUTRITION TRANSLATION,
ADAPTATION IN A GLOBAL ECOLOGY,
OR ADVANTAGE PROJECT.
MY CAT WELCOMES YOU AS WELL.
AS I MENTIONED AT THE KICKOFF
MEETING LAST WEEK, THE ADVANTAGE
PROJECT IS INTENDED TO AID THE
GLOBAL COMMUNITY IN ADDRESSING
THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF THE
INTERSECTION OF CLIMATES AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGES, FOOD
SYSTEMS, NUTRITION AND HEALTH,
BY FOCUSING ON THE EVIDENCE,
SPECIFICALLY WHAT IS KNOWN AND
WHAT IS NOT KNOWN, HOW GAPS AND
EVIDENCE MIGHT BE ADDRESSED, HOW
TO APPLY EVIDENCE EFFECTIVELY IN
SUPPORT OF A SUSTAINABLE OF
RESILIENT PROGRAMS.
TODAY WE'LL FOCUS ON IMPACT OF
CLIMBED AND CHANGE.
I WANT TO RECOGNIZE DR. DAN
RAITEN FROM THE EUNICE KENNEDY
SHRIVER NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF
THE CHILD HEALTH AND HUMAN
DEVELOPMENT AND DR. ALLISON
STIVER.
DEBBIE STEIN, DEBBIE BUCKIE AND
INDIVIDUALS WHO WORKED BEHIND
THE SCENES.
WE KNOW VIRTUAL MEETINGS DON'T
HAPPEN WITHOUT A LOT OF SUPPORT.
AGAIN, TO THE ENTIRE ADVANTAGE
TEAM, THANK YOU.
FOR THOSE JOINING US VIA
VIDEOCAST, THANK YOU, THANK YOU
FOR YOUR INTEREST IN THIS
PROJECT.
DO FEEL FREE TO SEND QUESTIONS
AND COMMENTS TO OUR E-MAIL.
I'LL PASS THE TORCH TO DAN
RAITEN TO GIVE AN OVERVIEW AND
INTRODUCE WORKING GROUP 3.
>> THANKS, DREW.
THANKS FOR YOUR LEADERSHIP AND
THE LEADERSHIP OF NICHD, DR.
BIANCHI AND DR. CERNICH FOR THIS
SUPPORT IN THIS PROJECT.
THIS PROJECT IS A PARTNERSHIP
BETWEEN MULTIPLE AGENCIES AND
WE'LL GO THROUGH THAT, INTRODUCE
THOSE AS WE MOVE FORWARD.
I WANT TO ONCE AGAIN REFRESH
EVERYBODY ABOUT WHAT WE'RE
TRYING TO DO WITH THIS PROJECT,
WHAT WE ARE AND AREN'T.
NEXT SLIDE.
WE'RE ALL COMMITTED TO THE
CONCEPT OF EVIDENCE-BASED
PROGRAMS, POLICIES, STANDARDS OF
CARE, AND WE UNDERSTAND OUR ROLE
AT NICHD AND NIH IS SUPPORTING
EXTRAMURAL RESEARCH COMMUNITY IN
THEIR EFFORTS TO GENERATE THE
EVIDENCE NEEDED TO GENERATE
THESE NEW PROGRAMS, POLICIES,
STANDARDS OF CARE, BUT WE ALSO
RECOGNIZE IMPORTANCE OF
TRANSLATION.
BEING AT THE TABLE FOR
CONVERSATIONS, AGENCIES,
ORGANIZATIONS INVOLVED IN
EFFORTS TO DEVELOP
INTERVENTIONS, PUBLIC HEALTH
INTERVENTIONS, AND THE LIKE.
SO, WE RECOGNIZE IMPORTANT
BALANCE BETWEEN THE RESEARCH,
BIOMEDICAL RESEARCH ENTERPRISE
AND TRANSLATION OF THAT EVIDENCE
BOTH IN TERMS OF DEVELOPMENT OF
NEW INTERVENTIONS, RANDOMIZED
CLINICAL TRIALS, DESIGN OF THOSE
TRIALS, AS WELL AS SUPPORT OF
THE COMMUNITIES AND THEIR
EFFORTS TO MESSAGE AND AVOID
CONFUSION ABOUT THIS NEW AND
EMERGING EVIDENCE.
NEXT SLIDE.
SO WHAT ARE WE TALKING ABOUT
HERE?
NEXT SLIDE.
WITH SPECIFIC REGARD TO
EVIDENCE-BASED PROGRAMS,
POLICIES, STANDARDS OF CARE,
RELATED TO THE ROLE OF DIET,
NUTRITION AND HEALTH, THERE'S
THREE MAIN BUCKETS OF EVIDENCE
THAT ARE EVALUATED.
THERE'S THE IMPACT ON HEALTH AND
RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN HEALTH AND
BIOLOGY OF HUMANS AND ROLE OF
NUTRITION IN THAT BIOLOGY.
THERE'S DIETARY PATTERNS, WHAT
PEOPLE EAT AND WHY.
AND THEN IN MANY CASES, MORE SO,
WE'LL LEARN MORE TODAY, IS THE
ROLE OF FOOD SYSTEMS, FOOD
SYSTEMS WRIT LARGE, IN THESE
RELATIONSHIPS.
THE CORE QUESTIONS HERE ARE
WHAT'S THE IMPACT OF CHANGING
ENVIRONMENT ON THESE THREE
BUCKETS?
IS THERE EVIDENCE TO INDICATE
THERE ARE CHANGES GOING ON,
CONSEQUENCES OF CHANGING
ENVIRONMENT INCLUDING CLIMATE
CHANGE?
CAN WE IMPROVE PRECISION AND
ATTRIBUTION IN THE ABSENCE OF
INCLUSION IN THIS INTERSECTION
OF CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CHANGE?
AND IF WE NEED TO INCLUDE THIS
INTERSECTION, HOW DO WE DO IT?
HOW DO WE REALLY SUPPORT THIS
ENTERPRISE TO DEVELOP
EVIDENCE-BASED CONTEXT-SPECIFIC
EQUITABLE PROGRAMS TO SUPPORT
THE DIET, HEALTH AND PUBLIC
HEALTH AGENDA?
NEXT SLIDE.
THERE'S SOME CORE DEFINITIONS
THAT WE'D LIKE TO INTRODUCE,
DRIVERS.
YOU'VE HEARD SOME OF THEM, THE
FIRST TWO WORKSHOPS WE'RE GOING
TO FOCUS ON FOOD SYSTEMS, BUT
UNDERLINING IS INTERACTION OF
COMPLEX BIOLOGICAL SYSTEM,
INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL
ENVIRONMENT.
THIS PROJECT IS DESIGNED TO
EXPLORE THAT ECOLOGY.
THE MULTIPLE ECOLOGIES THAT WE
NEED TO ADDRESS IN THIS CONTEXT.
HEALTH IS A PERFECT EXAMPLE OF
AN OUTCOME THAT'S IMPACTED BY
THIS ECOLOGICAL PERSPECTIVE.
OBVIOUSLY, HEALTH IS A RESULT OF
A COMBINED INTERACTION BETWEEN
THE INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL
ENVIRONMENT.
WITH REGARD TO THIS PROJECT, WE
ARE MORE FOCUSED ON FOOD, FOOD
BEING VEHICLES FOR NUTRIENTS AND
BIOACTIVE COMPONENTS TO SUPPORT
HEALTH.
AND DIET BEING POSITIVE FOODS
THAT WE CONSUME TO HELP SUPPORT
HEALTH.
WE MAKE A DISTINCTION HERE
THOUGH THAT FOOD AND DIET IS NOT
THE SAME AS NUTRITION.
AND NUTRITIONAL STATUS AS A
BIOLOGICAL VARIABLE THAT REALLY
IS THE RESULT, ONLY A I --
ACHIEVED AS A RESULT OF A SERIES
OF PROCESSES THAT STARTS WITH
DIGESTION, INCLUDES METABOLISM,
ABSORPTION, TRANSPORT, ET
CETERA, ALL AFFECTED BY
NUTRITIONAL STATUS AND AFFECT
NUTRITIONAL STATUS.
AND NUTRITIONAL STATUS IS BOTH
INPUT AND OUTCOME OF HEALTH.
THESE ARE IMPORTANT
DISTINCTIONS, IT'S NOT THE SAME,
THEY ARE NOT THE SAME AS FOOD.
WE WANT TO MAKE SURE WE
INTEGRATE THESE CONCEPTS INTO
OUR APPROACHES HERE.
NEXT SLIDE.
WE TALK ABOUT THE ENVIRONMENT.
THIS IS JUST A REPRESENTATION OF
THE HOLISTIC VIEW OF THE
ENVIRONMENT, RECOGNIZING THE
ENVIRONMENT IS NOT JUST THE
PHYSICAL ENVIRONMENT BUT
MULTIPLE COMPONENTS OF THIS
ENVIRONMENT INCLUDING HUMAN
COMPONENTS, SOCIAL, BEHAVIORAL,
ECONOMIC CONTEXT, ET CETERA.
NEXT SLIDE.
NEXT.
SO IN TERMS OF THE HEALTH
CONCEPT WE HEARD FROM WORKING
GROUP 1 ABOUT THE FOCUS, THE
THINGS THEY WILL FOCUS ON.
ONE OF THE CORE ISSUES IS
OBVIOUSLY BASIC CONCEPTS IN
NUTRITION, AND DIET, FOOD AND
NUTRITION SUPPLY.
THIS CARTOON REPRESENTS THIS
SORT OF VICIOUS CYCLE, WHAT
HAPPENS WHEN THERE'S A
PERTURBATION IN FOOD SYSTEMS AND
FOOD/DIET SUPPLY HAVING AN
IMPACT ON FOOD SECURITY.
PERTURBATION HAS AN IMPACT ON
FOOD INSECURITY, ADVERSE
OUTCOMES ON MALNUTRITION.
THAT ARROW REPRESENTS THE
RECIPROCAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN
CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CHANGE, AND THIS CORE
RELATIONSHIP WITH THE FOOD
SUPPLY.
OBVIOUSLY THEY ARE AFFECTED BY
EACH OTHER.
NEXT SLIDE.
THIS IS A REPRESENTATION OF THE
REALITY OF THE WORLD WE LIVE IN.
IT'S A COMPLEX REALITY, TOP LINE
REPRESENTS OUR SORT OF
TRADITIONAL NUTRITION COMMUNITY,
FOCUS ON THIS EFFORTS TO ADDRESS
UNDERNUTRITION.
WE'RE NOW RECOGNIZING THE
IMPORTANCE OF THE NUTRITION
TRANSITION THAT WE HEARD ABOUT
LAST WEEK, AND DIETARY PATTERNS
GROUP.
THE IMPACT OF THE IMPLICATIONS
OF THE NUTRITION TRANSITION ON
HEALTH, LIKE OBESITY, OVER/UNDER
NUTRITION AND DOUBLE BURDEN.
THAT'S HAPPENING AND
SUPERIMPOSED ON A COMPLEX HEALTH
CONTEXT INCLUDING INFECTIOUS
DISEASE, FOOD-BORNE DISEASE,
VECTOR-BORNE DISEASES, PANDEMIC
INFECTIONS, HIV, TB, MALARIA,
OBVIOUSLY COVID.
AND THE NEXT INFECTION THAT'S
GOING TO COME ALONG.
AND EXPLODING EPIDEMICS OF
NON-COMMUNICABLE DISEASES.
THAT IN THE MIDDLE IS
RECOGNITION OF THE BIOLOGY
COMMON ACROSS ALL THESE
CONDITIONS, THAT IS THE ROLE OF
THE MICROBIOME AND INFLAMMATION.
AT THE BOTTOM IS RECOGNITION
THIS IS ALL HAPPENING ACROSS THE
LIFE COURSE.
WE OF COURSE RECOGNIZE THE
IMPORTANCE OF THE DEVELOP
MESSAGE, THE DOHaD HYPOTHESIS,
BUT ALL THESE RELATIONSHIPS AND
ALL OF THESE CONDITIONS ARE
OCCURRING ACROSS THE LIFE
COURSE, MANY OF THE PROGRAMS AND
POLICIES THAT WE'RE TRYING TO
INFORM TAKE A LIFE COURSE
APPROACH.
NEXT SLIDE.
NEXT.
SO, SPECIFIC REGARD TO FOOD
SYSTEM THIS IS A REPRESENTATION
OF THE ECOLOGY OF A FOOD SYSTEM.
YOU'LL HEAR A LOT MORE ABOUT
THIS TODAY.
RECOGNITION OF THE IMPORTANCE OF
THE HUMAN CONTRIBUTION, THE
CONSUMER CHOICE, INFLUENCE OF
CONSUMER CHOICE, PATTERNS, ALL
THOSE FACTORS THAT INFLUENCE
PRODUCTION CHOICE AND THE HEALTH
OF A FOOD SYSTEM.
NEXT SLIDE.
WE WANT TO ACKNOWLEDGE THE
IMPORTANT RECIPROCAL RECIPROCITY
OF THIS RELATIONSHIP, CLIMATE,
IT'S NOT JUST A ONE-DIRECTIONAL
RELATIONSHIP.
CLIMATE JUST -- IT'S NOT JUST A
MATTER OF CLIMATE, ENVIRONMENTAL
CHANGE AFFECTING FOOD SYSTEM BUT
THE FOOD SYSTEMS HAVING AN
IMPACT ON CLIMATE.
IT'S NOT -- WE'RE LEARNING MORE
ABOUT THIS, WE'LL HEAR MORE
ABOUT THIS TODAY.
AGAIN, THERE'S ALSO A TEMPORAL
RELATIONSHIP WE HAVE TO
CONSIDER, NOT JUST THE LIFE
COURSE OF HUMANS BUT, YOU KNOW,
WITH REGARD TO A CHANGING
ENVIRONMENT, WE HAVE ACUTE
EVENTS THAT OBVIOUSLY HAVE
IMMEDIATE IMPACTS ON FOOD
SYSTEM, AND -- BUT WE ALSO HAVE
A LONG-TERM EFFECTS, LONG-TERM
EFFECTS OF CHANGING ENVIRONMENT
NEED TO BE FACTORED INTO OUR
ANALYSIS.
NEXT SLIDE.
NEXT.
SO, WHEN WE PUT THIS ALL
TOGETHER WE BRING IT BACK TO
THIS CONCEPT OF THE ECOLOGY,
THIS IS JUST A REPRESENTATION OF
THAT ECOLOGY.
BUT BEING INCLUSIVE OF ALL THE
THINGS WE TALKED ABOUT, BOTH THE
INTERNAL BIOLOGY, GENETICS,
HEALTH CONTEXT, ET CETERA, AND
EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT, FOOD
SYSTEMS, CLIMATE, PHYSICAL
ENVIRONMENT, ET CETERA.
AS WELL AS THE SOCIAL, ECONOMIC
CONTEXT.
IMPORTANT FACTORS THAT NEED TO
BE CONSIDERED AS WE MOVE FORWARD
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
EVIDENCE-BASED PROGRAMS AND
POLICIES AND HOW WE DO THAT IS
PART OF OUR CHALLENGE HERE WITH
ADVANTAGE.
NEXT SLIDE.
SO, WHAT IS ADVANTAGE?
PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER, NEXT
SLIDE, WHAT WE WANT TO BE CLEAR
AS DREW MENTIONED WE'RE FOCUSED
ON THE EVIDENCE.
THIS IS OUR PRIMARY AUDIENCE,
THE EXTRAMURAL RESEARCH
COMMUNITY.
WE WANT TO LEARN WHAT'S GOING
ON.
WE WANT TO LEARN WHAT EVIDENCE
EXISTS, AND WE WANT TO LEARN
WHERE THE GAPS ARE.
SO THAT WE CAN SUPPORT A
RESEARCH AGENDA THAT MOVES US
FORWARD.
WE WANT TO BE CLEAR WHAT WE'RE
NOT DOING.
WHAT WE'RE NOT DOING HERE IS
WE'RE NOT MAKING DIETARY
GUIDELINES, NOT DOING
RECOMMENDATIONS OR ANYTHING OF
THE SORT.
WE'RE HOPEFULLY SUPPORTING ALL
THOSE AGENCIES AND ORGANIZATIONS
THAT DO.
SO THAT'S OUR INTENTION HERE, TO
BRING THE EVIDENCE TO BEAR,
LEARN WHAT WE KNOW, WHAT WE
DON'T KNOW, HELP SUPPORT THOSE
EFFORTS THAT ARE DEVELOPING
EVIDENCE-BASED GUIDELINES.
NEXT SLIDE.
THIS REPRESENTS THE ORGANIZATION
OF THE ADVANTAGE PROJECT, DREW
MENTIONED OUR TEAM, AND NICHD
TEAM.
MARY ROSCO IS A KEY LINCHPIN OF
WORKING GROUP 3.
EACH HAS REPRESENTATION, NONE OF
THIS HAPPENS WITHOUT THEM, AS
DREW NOTED.
AT THE BEGINNING WE CONVENED
SCIENTIFIC STEERING COMMITTEE
THAT CONSISTED OF MULTIPLE
AGENCIES INCLUDING USDA, CDC,
USAID, FDA, ET CETERA, ALL THOSE
AGENCIES INVOLVED IN THIS
ENTERPRISE OF DEVELOPING
EVIDENCE-BASED PROGRAMS AND
POLICIES, SO THAT BY THIS INPUT
AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE PROJECT
CONCEPTUALIZATION OF THE PROJECT
AND IDENTIFICATION OF SOME FOLKS
AND CHAIRS YOU'LL MEET TODAY.
THE WORK OF THE PROJECT IS DONE
BY THE WORK GROUPS, YOU'LL LEARN
TODAY FROM WORKING GROUP 3 LED
BY ROBIN WHITE, VIRGINIA TECH,
WHAT THEY ARE DOING AND WHERE
THEY ARE GOING WITH THIS WORK
GROUP.
NEXT SLIDE.
WHEN WE PUT THIS APPROACH
TOGETHER THIS IS HOW THE PROJECT
IS ORGANIZED.
WE RECOGNIZE THESE THREE
BUCKETS, THEY ARE OVERLAPPING
BUCKETS.
WE RECOGNIZE THAT.
PART OF THE EFFORT OF THE
WORKSHOPS IS TO DISCUSS WHERE
THE OVERLAPS OCCUR, MAKE SURE
WE'RE COVERING THINGS THAT WE
NEED TO COVER, AND MAKE SURE
WE'RE NOT BEING REDUNDANT IN OUR
COVERAGE.
SO THAT'S THE POINT OF THESE
WORKSHOPS, TO SUPPORT THESE
WORKING GROUPS, AND THEIR
INTERACTIONS WITH EACH OTHER.
WE RECOGNIZE THOSE THREE BUCKETS
ARE BEING IMPACTED BY CLIMATE,
ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE, THAT'S ALL
BEEN BUILT INTO THESE ANALYSES.
WHEN WE COLLECT ALL THIS DATA
AND COLLECT ALL THIS NEW
EVIDENCE, WHAT DO DO YOU WITH
IT?
HOW DO YOU THEN TAKE THIS AND
MOVE FORWARD WITH THE RESEARCH
AGENDA AND SO IT'S A VERY
COMPLEX SET OF QUESTIONS.
IT'S A COMPLEX SET OF DATA.
THERE'S LOTS OF DIFFERENT KINDS
OF INDICATORS, BIOMARKERS,
WHATEVER THE TERM YOU WANT TO
USE, AND THERE'S DIFFERENT
ANALYTICAL APPROACHES.
THAT'S THE WORK OF WORKING GROUP
4, YOU'LL HEAR FROM ON MAY 11.
HOW DO WE TAKE THIS STUFF AND
DESIGN PROJECTS AND
SURVEILLANCE, ASSESS APPROACHES
TO CAPTURE THIS COMPLEX SYSTEM?
AND THE LAST BIT IS WORKING
GROUP 5, CONVENED ON JUNE 12,
TRANSLATION AND IMPLEMENTATION.
HOW DO WE TAKE THIS NEW EVIDENCE
AND TRANSLATING IT IN A
MEANINGFUL WAY TO SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF EQUITABLE, SAFE,
EFFICACIOUS, CONTEXT-SPECIFIC
PROGRAMS, PROGRAMS,
RECOMMENDATION, GUIDANCE, ET
CETERA, TO SUPPORT THIS DIET AND
HEALTH AGENDA?
IT'S A COMPLEX SET OF ISSUES.
WE HAVE TO BE CAREFUL HOW WE
TRANSLATE IT.
WE HAVE TO BE CAREFUL ABOUT HOW
WE MESSAGE IT.
AND HOW WE COMMUNICATE WITH OUR
PEERS, WITHIN THIS COMMUNITY AND
THE EXTERNAL COMMUNITY THAT
WE'RE SERVING.
NEXT SLIDE.
THIS IS JUST A LIST OF THE
WORKING GROUPS AND CHAIRS.
YOU'VE MET WORKING GROUPS 1 AND
2 ALREADY.
TODAY YOU'LL HEAR FROM WORKING
GROUP 3.
AND WE'RE VERY MUCH LOOKING
FORWARD TO TODAY'S PRESENTATION.
I WANT TO THANK EVERYBODY FOR
SUPPORT AND ESPECIALLY THANK AND
ACKNOWLEDGE WORKING GROUP
MEMBERS FROM ALL THE WORKING
GROUPS, VERY BUSY PEOPLE AND
WE'RE GRATEFUL FOR THEIR
WILLINGNESS TO TAKE THIS
COMPLICATED SET OF QUESTIONS ON.
SO WITH THAT, I THINK WE'LL MOVE
ON AND INTRODUCE DR. WHITE AND
MOVE INTO THE CONTENT OF TODAY'S
WORKSHOP.
THANK YOU.
>> THANKS FOR THE INTRODUCTION,
PROVIDING PERSPECTIVE AND
BACKGROUND ON THIS ENGAGING
PROJECT.
I'M HERE REPRESENTING OUR
WORKING GROUP 3, WHICH IS
FOCUSING ON THE IMPACT OF
CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE
ON FOOD SYSTEMS.
WHEN WE THINK ABOUT THE PROCESS
OF THIS ADVANTAGE EFFORT, I
THINK IN TERMS OF OUTCOMES AND
ACTIVITIES.
OUR GROUP TOWARD THE ADVANTAGE
GOAL OF IDENTIFYING THIS
KNOWLEDGE AND RESEARCH GAPS TO
TRY AND ADDRESS THE EMERGING
NEEDS OF THE INTERSECTION OF
FOOD, CLIMATE, SUSTAINABILITY,
HAS BEGUN THROUGH WORKING GROUP
DISCUSSION.
THESE STARTED WITH SCOPING THE
FOCUS OF OUR WORKING GROUP.
WE WENT THROUGH A NUMBER OF
TALKS ABOUT WHAT AN OUTLINE
MIGHT LOOK LIKE TO TRANSLATE
THAT SCOPE INTO PRACTICE BOTH
FOR OUR WORKSHOP TODAY AND FOR
THE EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF A
SYNTHESIS PAPER TRYING TO TIE
THIS SET OF GAPS AND
OPPORTUNITIES TOGETHER TO REPORT
OUR CURRENT STATUS OF KNOWLEDGE
IN THIS SPACE.
DAN WENT THROUGH THESE SO I'LL
SKIP THROUGH QUICKLY.
REMINDER, WE SIT AT THIS THIRD
STEP AMONG WORKING GROUPS,
TRYING TO DISCUSS THIS CLIMATE
ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE AND FOOD
SYSTEM INTERFACE.
WHEN THINKING ABOUT THAT AND
TRYING TO IDENTIFY THE SCOPE OF
OUR WORKING GROUP, WE REALLY DID
SORT OUT THAT WE HAVE A COUPLE
DIFFERENT ELEMENTS THAT ARE
CRITICAL FOR OUR WORKING GROUP
TO DEFINE OR CONSIDER, WHEN
WE'RE EXPRESSING THIS AREA AS A
FRAMEWORK FOR IDENTIFYING
CRITICAL RESEARCH GAPS.
AND NEXT STEPS.
THE FIRST WAS THE CONCEPT OF
CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CHANGE, AND SO AS WE ORGANIZED
OUR DISCUSSION TODAY, THAT WILL
BE A THEME THAT WE'LL FOCUS ON,
IS THE FRAMEWORK THAT WE'RE
USING TO TRY AND CHARACTERIZE
CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CHANGE.
THIS CAN BE DEFINED VERY
NARROWLY OR IT CAN BE DEFINED
QUITE BROADLY.
AND THANKS TO SOME WORKING GROUP
MEMBERS WE HAVE A NICE FRAMEWORK
TO BE ABLE TO ORGANIZE SOME OF
THOSE IMPACTS IN A LITTLE BIT OF
A MORE COHESIVE MANNER SO WE CAN
DIRECTLY MAP HOW THEY AFFECT
FOOD SYSTEMS.
WE ALSO THEN HAVE KIND OF THIS
CHALLENGE OF THESE CYCLIC
IMPACTS AT THE NEXUS, THIS HAS
BEEN HIGHLIGHTED BUT THE IDEA
THAT FOOD SYSTEMS CONTRIBUTE TO
CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE
JUST AS THEY ARE AFFECTED BY
THESE FACTORS, AND SO AS WE
CONSIDER THE FUTURE OF CLIMATE
SMART AGRICULTURE WHICH
CONTRIBUTES TO A SUSTAINABLE AND
SECURE FOOD SUPPLY, WE HAVE TO
THINK ABOUT NOT ONLY HOW WE
ADDRESS ENVIRONMENTAL CHALLENGES
EXISTING TODAY BUT HOW WE MIGHT
ADAPT AGRICULTURE AS THE CLIMATE
CONTINUES TO CHANGE.
SO IN TERMS OF OUR CORE
QUESTIONS, WE HAVE ONE FOCUSED
ON HOW CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CHANGE AFFECTS FOOD SYSTEMS, AND
WHAT DOES THIS SORT OF
RECIPROCAL RELATIONSHIP LOOK
LIKE BETWEEN CLIMATE
ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE AND FOOD
SYSTEMS, AND WE'VE BEEN TAPPED
WITH REALLY FOCUSED ON WHAT
CHOICES ARE AVAILABLE AT THE
FOOD SYSTEM LEVEL TO SUPPORT
THESE TIMES OF INTERVENTIONS.
THE THEME OF CHOICE IS ANOTHER
ELEMENT THAT WE'LL DISCUSS TODAY
AS WE LOOK AT EXAMPLES OF
DIFFERENT FOOD SYSTEMS AND ANDE
TYPES OF CHOICES THAT CAN BE
IMPLEMENTED.
IN TERMS OF THEMATIC AREAS, WE
HAVE A FRAMEWORK FOR CLIMATE AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE THAT
BECOMES FAIRLY IMPORTANT TO THE
REST OF OUR DISCUSSION TODAY SO
WE'LL BEGIN WITH THAT.
WE'LL ALSO HAVE A THEMATIC AREA
AROUND EXISTING DATA AT THIS
CYCLIC INTERSECTION OF CLIMATE
ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE AND FOOD
SYSTEMS.
WE'LL TALK A LITTLE BIT ABOUT
THE IMPLICATIONS OF INTERVENTION
CHOICES, CHOICES AVAILABLE AT
THE FOOD SYSTEM LEVEL TO TRY AND
ADDRESS AND ADAPT TO CLIMATE
ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE, AND AS WE
MOVE THROUGH THIS WE CONTINUE TO
TRY AND DEFINE GAPS AND RESEARCH
NEEDS.
I'LL HIGHLIGHT, WE HAVE FOUR
WORKING GROUP SPEAKERS TODAY.
WE'RE JOINED BY A GUEST SPEAKER
WHO HAS GRACIOUSLY AGREED TO
JOIN US DESPITE IMPENDING
RETIREMENT, FROM OREGON STATE
UNIVERSITY, OUR SECOND SPEAKER
TODAY, SHARING SOME OF HIS
PERSPECTIVES HOW WE CAN CONSIDER
ECONOMIC FRAMEWORKS WITHIN THIS
DISCUSSION AREA.
OUR WORKING GROUP SPEAKERS WILL
INCLUDE MYSELF, DR. ZISKA FROM
COLUMBIA, MATT SMITH, AND
KATHRYN FIORELLA.
WE HAVE OTHER GROUP MEMBERS
JOINING US TODAY.
UNFORTUNATELY THIS WILL BE THE
EXTENT OF OUR SPEAKER LIST.
IN TERMS OF OUR TASKS FOR THIS
WORKSHOP, WE'LL REVIEW SCOPE,
OUTLINE WE PROPOSED FOR OUR
WORKING GROUP.
WE WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE THROUGH
REFINING SOME FRAMEWORKS USED TO
DISCUSS THE INTERSECTION OF
CLIMATE ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE AND
OUR FOOD SYSTEMS, AND THEN
THROUGHOUT THE DISCUSSION WE'LL
ATTEMPT TO EXPLORE THESE VARIOUS
LINKAGES AS OVERLAPS WITH OTHER
WORKING GROUPS.
IN TERMS OF THE LAYOUT FOR
TODAY, WHICH ALSO ROUGHLY ALIGNS
WITH THE LAYOUT OF OUR INTENDED
OUTLINE WE'RE BEGINNING
OBVIOUSLY WITH THIS INTRODUCTION
TO THE WORKING GROUP AND TO THE
SCOPE FOR OUR PARTICULAR
SECTION.
OUR NEXT SPEAKER WILL ADDRESS
THIS FRAMEWORK FOR DEFINING
CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CHANGES.
WITH WE'LL THEN HEAR ABOUT THE
ECONOMICS OF CLIMATE AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE IN FOOD
SYSTEMS AND WE'LL HAVE MYSELF,
DR. FIORELLA DISCUSSING CLIMATE
AND ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGES AND
EXAMPLE FOOD SYSTEMS,
TERRESTRIAL ANIMAL SYSTEMS,
AQUATIC, PLANT-BASED SYSTEMS.
WE'LL FINISH OUR FORMAL
PRESENTATION WITH A SHORT
DISCUSSION OF THE TYPES OF
FRAMEWORKS TO TALK ABOUT
INTERVENTION AND TYPES OF
CHOICES THAT CAN BE USED TO
ADDRESS CLIMATE AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE AND ADAPT
OUR AGRICULTURE AND FOOD SYSTEMS
TO CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CHANGES.
WE'LL HAVE OPPORTUNITY FOR
QUESTIONS AND DISCUSSION
INTERSPERSED THROUGHOUT.
THE FIRST TIME AFTER DR. SMITH
TALKS ABOUT THE FRAMEWORK FOR
DEFINING CLIMATE ENVIRONMENTAL
CHANGES, A SECOND OPPORTUNITY
FOR DISCUSSION AFTER DR. ANTLE
PRESENTS SOME FEEDBACK ABOUT THE
FRAMEWORKS FOR CONSIDERING
ECONOMICKING, IMPACTS ON FOOD
SYSTEMS, AND A FINAL OPPORTUNITY
FOR QUESTIONS AND DISCUSSION AT
THE END OF OUR SESSION TODAY
AFTER WE'VE PRESENTED SOME OF
THE EXISTENT KNOWLEDGE IN
INDIVIDUAL FOOD SYSTEMS AND
FRAMEWORK FOR DISCUSSING
ADAPTATION AND CHOICE.
AT THIS TIME, I WILL GO AHEAD
AND TURN IT OVER TO DR. MATT
SMITH AND HARVARD TO BE ABLE TO
PROVIDE AN OVERVIEW OF THE
FRAMEWORK THAT WE EXPECT TO USE
FOR DEFINING CLIMATE AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGES.
MATT, IF YOU WANT TO GO AHEAD
AND SET YOURSELF UP TO SHARE
YOUR SCREEN I LOOK FORWARD TO
HEARING FROM YOU.
>> GREAT.
CAN YOU HEAR ME, ROBIN?
>> YES.
>> GREAT.
SO, YEAH, I'M DR. MATT SMITH,
RESEARCH SCIENTIST AT THE
HARVARD SCHOOL OF PUBLIC HEALTH,
HAPPY TO TALK TO EVERYONE.
YEAH, MY ROLE TODAY IS DESCRIBE
THIS FRAMEWORK FOR HOW WE HAVE
DEFINED CLIMATE AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE, HOW WE'VE
GOTTEN OUR HANDS AROUND THIS BIG
QUESTION, AND GIVEN IT AN
ORGANIZATION AND ALSO SOME IDEA
OF WHAT WE'RE INCLUDING AND WHAT
WE'RE EXCLUDING FROM THAT
FRAMEWORK.
SO SOME DISCLOSURES.
SO, OUR ROLE WAS TO DESCRIBE HOW
CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE
WILL AFFECT FOOD SYSTEMS.
WHICH IS A PRETTY BROAD TASK,
AND ONE YOU CAN REALLY ATTACK
FROM A LOT OF DIFFERENT ANGLES.
SO, FIRST, YOU COULD IMAGINE
DIFFERENT WAYS OF THINKING ABOUT
CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CHANGE.
SO THERE ARE CHANGES IN
TEMPERATURE, PRECIPITATION,
ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION,
DIFFERENT WAYS THE CLIMATE
AFFECTS DIFFERENT SYSTEMS,
PHYSICAL SYSTEMS, BIOLOGICAL
SYSTEMS.
DIFFERENT THINGS NOT RELATED TO
CLIMATE LIKE POLLUTION AND
DEGRADATION.
THERE ARE DIFFERENT -- MIGHT
AFFECT QUANTITY OF FOOD BY
HARMING YIELD, CHANGING WHERE
ARABLE LAND EXIST, WHERE
LOCATIONS OF WHERE FOOD IS
PRODUCED, METHODS, FOR EXAMPLE
HOW AQUA CULTURE MIGHT BECOME A
MORE PREVALENT WAY OF PRODUCING
AQUATIC FOODS IF WILD CAPTURE
FISHERIES BECOME MORE DIFFERENT,
YOU CAN CHANGE QUALITY OF
NUTRITIONAL DENSITY, AFFECT HOW
THEY ARE STORED, FRESHNESS, HOW
PERISHABLE THEY ARE.
AND THEN YOU CAN THINK ABOUT
JUST DIFFERENT FOOD SYSTEMS.
THIS IS SOME OF WHAT ROBIN WAS
TALKING ABOUT, CROP PRODUCTION,
LIVESTOCK, AQUATIC SYSTEMS.
DIFFERENT WAYS THEY ARE
TRANSPORTED, STORED,
DISTRIBUTED, YOU CAN THINK ABOUT
INDIGENOUS FOOD SYSTEMS WHICH
OPERATE -- TEND TO OPERATE ON
DIFFERENT TRACKS THAN ALL OF
THESE GENERALLY DO.
SO, THERE ARE MANY WAYS TO
APPROACH THIS WEIGHTY PROBLEM,
AND OUR GROUP REALLY BEGAN BY
HIGHLIGHTING THIS CLIMATE AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE PIECE.
THIS IS HOW WE DECIDED WE WANTED
TO ORGANIZE OUR THINKING HERE.
AND THAT LED US TO THIS
SCHEMATIC, GUIDING OUR THINKING
HERE, WHICH BEGINS AT THE TOP,
WITH THIS ORANGE BOX, WHICH IS
THE HUMAN INFLUENCE ON THE
GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT, AND YOU HAVE
ALL OF THESE ARROWS, FLOWING
DOWN THROUGH THAT, TO LEAD TO
BOTTOM OF HOW THAT IMPACTS THE
FOOD SYSTEM.
I WILL NOTE THAT -- AND ROBIN
MENTIONED THIS AS WELL, THERE IS
ONE ARROW THAT IS DASHED THAT
GOES FROM THE GREEN BOX BACK UP
TO THE ORANGE BOX, AND THAT IS
TO NOTE THAT FOOD SYSTEMS DO
RETURN TO IMPACT THE ENVIRONMENT
THEMSELVES.
SO THEY BOTH IMPACT IT DIRECTLY
THROUGH POLLUTION, AND
BIODIVERSITY, AND ABILITY TO
APPLY PESTICIDES AND THERE ARE
DIFFERENT WAYS THEY CAN IMPACT
THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT DIRECTLY,
ALSO THROUGH THEIR IMPACT OF
GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS THAT
THEY ALSO AFFECT CLIMATE CHANGE.
SO THIS IS NOT A ONE-WAY STREET
BUT THERE'S SOME RECIPROCITY
HERE.
THE MAIN FOCUS OF OUR TASK HERE
IS SHOWN IN THESE SOLID LINES.
AND WE HAVE ORGANIZED THOSE
PATHWAYS INTO FIVE MAIN GROUPS.
SO, I'M GOING TO WALK THROUGH
EACH OF THESE GROUPS, AND LIST
THE TYPES OF ENVIRONMENTAL
CHANGES THAT WE ARE INCLUDING
EACH OF THESE GROUPS TO GIVE AN
IDEA WHAT IS GOING TO BE
INCLUDED, WHAT WE'RE AIMING TO
INCLUDE IN THIS REVIEW, AND ALSO
ALLOW KIND OF DISCUSSIONS OF
THIS TO THE MEMBERS HERE TO GIVE
US SOME FEEDBACK ON WHETHER SOME
THINGS SHOULD BE INCLUDED,
SHOULD NOT BE INCLUDED, SHOULD
BE MOVED.
SO I'LL START WITH PATHWAY 1,
WHICH IS INDICATING HOW HUMANS
HAVE CAUSED CLIMATE CHANGE,
CLIMATE CHANGE IS ACCELERATING
AND HOW THAT CLIMATE CHANGE IS
GOING TO AFFECT FOOD SYSTEMS
DIRECTLY.
THIS WOULD INCLUDE THINGS LIKE
CHANGING NUTRITIONAL DENSITY OF
CROPS WHICH IS EVEN IN ITSELF A
CO2 AFFECT, NOT NECESSARILY A
CLIMATE CHANGE WRIT LARGE EFFECT
BUT STILL INCLUDED UNDER THAT
BUCKET E THERE'S CHANGES TO THE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE, RAINFALL,
MORE AND INTENSE EXTREME EVENTS,
THINGS LIKE FLOODS, DROUGHTS,
HEAT WAVE, CHANGES TO LIVESTOCK
MORTALITY AND PRODUCTIVITY, AND
EVEN CHANGING ALLERGEN
CONCENTRATIONS SOME CROPS MAY
AFFECT HEALTH.
GROUPS 2 THROUGH 4 ARE ALL THE
THINGS WHERE THEY ARE ALSO
AFFECTED, DIFFERENT SYSTEMS ARE
ALSO AFFECTED BY CLIMATE CHANGE
BUT SIMULTANEOUSLY BEING
AFFECTED BY HUMANS THEMSELVES.
SO THERE'S BOTH A KIND OF DIRECT
EFFECT AND AS WELL AS CLIMATE
CHANGE EFFECT, INFLECTED BY
CLIMATE CHANGE.
FIRST IS PHYSICAL SYSTEMS.
HERE WE WOULD BE TALKING ABOUT
SHIFTING OCEAN TEMPERATURES,
ACIDITY, SALINITY, ALSO SOIL
RUNOFF, BECAUSE OF CHANGING
TILLAGE PRACTICES, MORE INTENSE
STORMS, GROUND LEVEL OZONE
PRODUCTION, BECAUSE OF THE
EFFECT OF HUMAN EMISSIONS, AND
THE PHOTOCHEMICAL EFFECTS IN THE
ATMOSPHERE WHICH BECOME MORE --
WHICH PROCESS ACCELERATES UNDER
HIGHER TEMPERATURES, WOULD
HAPPEN MORE UNDER CLIMATE
CHANGE, ALL THE PHYSICAL SYSTEMS
PATHWAY.
THREE IS BIOLOGICAL SYSTEMS,
PEST WEED, PATHOGEN PRESSURE,
CHANGES TO WILD POLLINATOR
POPULATIONS BECAUSE OF CHANGES
OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND
ANTHROPOGENIC STRESSORS,
BIODIVERSITY AND POOL OF
AVAILABLE CROPS AVAILABLE FOR
RESILIENCY AGAINST CLIMATE
EFFECTS.
AND THEN PATHWAY 4 HERE IS HOW
AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIONS
THEMSELVES, SYSTEMS THEMSELVES,
ARE AFFECTED BY CLIMATE CHANGE
AND HUMANS.
HERE WOULD BE THINGS LIKE LESS
PRODUCTIVE LABOR, NUTRIENT
RUNOFF, WATER POLLUTION FROM
OVERFERTILIZING AND STORM
RUNOFF, DESTRUCTION TO SUPPLY
CHAIN BECAUSE OF EFFECTS ON
TRANSPORTATION NETWORK OR
POTENTIALLY COLD STORAGE.
LACK OF FRESH WATER IN
IRRIGATION STRUCTURE, COULD BE
AN ISSUE IN TERMS OF HIGHER
TEMPERATURES OR INSUFFICIENT
WATER TO BUFFER CHANGES AS WELL
AS OUR ABILITY TO KEEP YIELDS
INCREASING TO MEET DEMAND.
AND THEN SPOILAGE AND FOOD-BORNE
DISEASES.
THE FIFTH PATHWAY ON THE RIGHT
IS DIRECT LINE FROM HUMAN
INFLUENCE ON ENVIRONMENT TO FOOD
SYSTEMS, LIKE AIR POLLUTION,
NITROUS OXIDE, SULPHUR DIOXIDE,
HEAVY METAL CONTAMINATION OF
SOIL, SOIL DEGRADATION,
OVERWATERING, OVERFERTILIZING,
OVERDRAWING OF AQUIFERS WHICH
COULD HAVE EFFECTS ON FOOD SIS
TESSMENTS -- SYSTEMS E THERE AE
A LOT OF THINGS INCLUDED.
I SOUNDED 19 WHEN PREPARING.
A LOT OF BULLET POINTS HERE.
I WANTED TO NOTE THAT THERE ARE
SOME THAT HAVE BEEN COVERED
EXHAUSTISM.
THERE'S BEEN A LOT WRITTEN.
BUT A LOT HAVE VERY LITTLE DATA.
AND SO THE POINT OF OUR REVIEW
WOULD BE TO BE COMPREHENSIVE IN
THE CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CHANGES THAT ARE AFFECTING
THINGS AND AS WELL AS
HIGHLIGHTING THE BIG UNKNOWNS.
AND SO SOME OF THESE SECTIONS
MIGHT BE QUITE SPARSE BUT TO TRY
TO INCLUDE EVERYTHING WE THINK
IS A REASONABLE PATHWAY THAT
DOES HAVE SOME SCIENTIFIC
UNDERPINNING.
THIS IS ALSO A WORK IN PROGRESS.
THERE ARE THINGS ON HERE THAT
MIGHT BE DELETED, ADDED, MOVED.
SO I'M INTERESTED IN FEEDBACK
FROM PARTICIPANTS TODAY.
AND AS ROBIN SAID, THIS IS A BIG
CHUNK OF OUR PAPER BUT THIS IS
NOT THE WHOLE OF OUR PAPER.
THERE WILL BE OTHER SECTIONS AT
THE END TALKING ABOUT POTENTIAL
WAYS ADAPT TO SOME OF THESE
STRESSORS SO THAT THERE WILL BE
ADDITIONAL PIECES THERE.
SO, WE'LL PROBABLY BE RETURNING
TO THIS FRAMEWORK AS A
TOUCHSTONE THROUGHOUT THE
WORKSHOP TODAY.
BUT FOR NOW I HAVE A FEW
QUESTIONS THAT I'M SPECIFICALLY
TARGETING TOWARDS OTHER WORKING
GROUP MEMBERS BECAUSE AS WE WERE
GOING THROUGH BUILDING THIS
FRAMEWORK WE HAD A LOT OF
QUESTIONS CROP UP.
SO WE WERE HOPING TO GET
FEEDBACK ON THESE SPECIFIC
THINGS.
ONE IS HOW ARE YOU DEFINING
CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CHANGE?
SO WE HAVE THIS FRAME WORK
AROUND IT, BUT WHICH INCLUDES
BOTH CLIMATE, CLIMATE INFLICTED
STRESSORS AND THINGS THAT DON'T
NECESSARILY HAVE ANYTHING TO DO
WITH CLIMATE.
ARE OUR WORKING GROUPS DEFINING
MORE NARROWLY AROUND CLIMATE OR
MAYBE BROADER?
I DON'T KNOW IF WE HAVE TO BE
FULLY HARMONIZED AROUND THAT
DEFINITION BUT TO GET A SENSE
HOW CLOSE WE ARE.
ARE THERE ELEMENTS INCLUDED IN
YOUR FRAMEWORKS, IN OURS, ARE
THERE OVERLAPS THAT ONE US
SHOULD TAKE?
WE WERE THINKING ABOUT POTENTIAL
FOOD SAFETY ISSUES AROUND
SPOILAGE AND SOME OF THE TOXINS
THAT MIGHT AFFECT FOOD SAFETY OR
IS THERE ANYTHING YOU THOUGHT
BELONGED TO OUR WORKING GROUP
THAT WE'VE NEGLECTED TO INCLUDE?
YOU DID NOT INCLUDE IT IN YOUR
FRAMEWORK BECAUSE YOU THOUGHT IT
WOULD BE PICKED UP BY US BUT
DIDN'T SEE IT ON THAT FRAMEWORK,
THAT WOULD BE A GAP BETWEEN OUR
WORKING GROUPS.
I'M GOING TO TURN IT OVER TO,
MAYBE ROBIN WILL LEAD THE
QUESTION AND ANSWER QUESTIONS TO
DISCUSS THESE, AND ANYTHING
ELSE.
THANK YOU VERY MUCH.
>> THANK YOU FOR THE OVERVIEW,
MATT.
THAT WAS PERFECT.
THIS IS OUR FIRST OPPORTUNITY
FOR QUESTION AND ANSWER SESSION.
WE HAVE A GOOD BIT OF TIME TO
DIG INTO THAT FRAMEWORK.
I DO SEE WE HAVE OUR FIRST
QUESTION PLACED IN THE CHAT.
IS ONE OF THE WORKING GROUPS
FOCUSING MORE ON THE DASHED
LINE?
ISN'T THAT QUITE IMPORTANT AS
WELL?
ESPECIALLY IF THIS DOES TRICKLE
DOWN TO POLICY ONE DAY.
SO, I WILL TACKLE THAT ON BEHALF
OF THE WORKING GROUP AND SAY
THANK YOU FOR THE EXCELLENT
QUESTION.
IF YOU ARE ABLE TO STAY TUNED
FOR OUR FOOD SYSTEMS-CENTRIC
TRIAD THIS AFTERNOON, OR A
LITTLE LATER THIS MORNING,
YOU'LL NOTE THAT, YES, WHEN WE
GET INTO THE INDIVIDUAL FOOD
SYSTEMS WE'RE TALKING ABOUT THAT
RECIPROCAL RELATIONSHIP.
SO, HOW ANIMALS, CROPS, AQUA
CULTURE ARE IMPACTING THE
ENVIRONMENT, HOW WE TRY TO ADAPT
THEM TO A CHANGING ENVIRONMENT,
HOW WE ATTEMPT TO MITIGATE WHILE
CHANGING, SOMETIMES A MORE
COMPLEX PROBLEM.
I DO BELIEVE THAT IS UNDER THE
PURVIEW OF OUR GROUP.
IF IT IS NOT AND IS BEING
ADDRESSED ELSEWHERE WE SHOULD BE
TALKING ABOUT WHERE THAT OVERLAP
EXISTS.
DO WE HAVE OTHER QUESTIONS OR
DISCUSSION FROM FOLKS ABOUT THIS
FRAMEWORK THAT WE'VE PROPOSED?
I THINK WE'RE HAPPY TO HAVE
THOSE EITHER PLACED IN THE CHAT
OR YOU'RE WELCOME TO UNMUTE
YOURSELF, TURN YOUR VIDEO ON AND
ASK DIRECTLY.
>> SORRY, DAN, GO AHEAD.
>> GO AHEAD.
>> THANKS SO MUCH.
THAT WAS MY QUESTION ABOUT THE
DASHED LINE TOO.
I MEAN, THERE'S BEEN SO MUCH
DONE ON THAT.
BUT OF COURSE IN TERMS OF
SUSTAINABLE DIETS, THEY ARE JUST
HEADING INTO THE LANCET TO,
DELVING INTO THAT MORE I THINK,
BUT I REALLY AGREED WITH YOUR --
I DON'T HAVE AN ANSWER FOR YOU
BUT I'M IN GROUP 4 ON THE
METRICS AND METHODS, AND I AGREE
WITH YOU ABOUT THE -- HOW SORT
OF SUSTAINABILITY OR CLIMATE
CHANGE OR ENVIRONMENTAL
DEGRADATION IS BEING DEFINED AND
WHERE WE'RE DRAWING PROGRAMMERS
PARAMETERS, WE'RE PROBABLY LESS
FAR ALONG.
I DIDN'T MANAGE TO SIT IN THE ON
THE GROUPS 1 AND 2, BUT WE DON'T
HAVE A WORKING DEFINITION, AND
IF YOU COME UP WITH ONE WE'LL
FOLLOW YOUR LEAD.
BECAUSE I REVIEW AND SYNTHESIZE
A LOT OF STUFF.
WE'RE DOING IT CURRENTLY AS
WELL.
IT'S VERY TRICKY.
I MEAN, EVEN WHEN YOU THINK
ABOUT THE DIRECT PATHWAYS
BETWEEN POLLUTION, WHETHER THEY
ARE GOING THROUGH CLIMATE CHANGE
OR NOT, AND THEN WHETHER TO
INCLUDE THEM OR NOT, WE'VE HAD
TO HAVE ACTUALLY SEVERAL EXPERT
CONSULTANTS ADVISE US HOW TO
CONCEPTUALIZE THIS BECAUSE
THERE'S NO STRAIGHT ANSWER.
THANKS.
>> SO I'M JUST CLARIFYING THAT,
THAT COMMENT THERE.
A WORKING DEFINITION AROUND
SPECIFICALLY THE DOTTED ARROW
THEN IS WHAT YOU'RE SAYING, HOW
--
>> NO.
YEAH, NO, TWO DIFFERENT THINGS.
I APPRECIATE THAT THE DOTTED
ARROW WILL BE COVERED.
AND THE EXPLANATION ON THAT.
AND TO PULL ON THE WORK THAT'S
BEEN DONE AND IS BEING DONE
AROUND DIETS DRIVING CLIMATE
CHANGE BUT THERE WAS A SECOND
PIECE AROUND THIS WORKING
DEFINITION.
ON THE BULLET POINTS THAT YOU
JUST MENTIONED, MATT, THERE WAS
THE SORT OF WORKING DEFINITION
OR PARAMETERS FOR
SUSTAINABILITY, CLIMATE CHANGE,
WHATEVER YOU WANT TO CALL IT.
I WOULD JUST SAY WE WOULD ALSO
BENEFIT FROM THAT IN OUR GROUP.
>> MAYBE WE HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY
TO TOUCH BASE BETWEEN GROUPS TO
MAKE SURE WE'RE ALIGNED ON
DEFINITIONS THERE.
I THINK DAN, IT LOOKS LIKE
YOU'VE GOT A QUESTION/COMMENT?
>> I WANTED TO RESPOND.
I THINK THE QUESTIONS YOU POSE
ARE REALLY IMPORTANT, AND I
THINK WE NEED TO SHARE THOSE
WITH THE OTHER WORKING GROUPS,
WHICH WE HAVE BUILT INTO THIS
PROCESS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR THE
WORKING GROUPS TO INTERACT, NOT
JUST IN WORKSHOPS BUT THROUGH
CONFERENCE CALLS TO THE WORKING
GROUP, IT'S IMPORTANT TO MAKE
THAT CLEAR.
I THINK WE CAN SAFELY SAY THAT
WORKING GROUPS 1 AND 2 WILL BE
DEALING WITH SOME OF THE
RECIPROCITY HERE.
SO TO THE EXTENT THAT THE HEALTH
CONTEXT HAS IMPACT OH
INTERVENTION CHOICES AND HOW
THAT MIGHT AFFECT WHAT WE DO
WITH THE FOOD SYSTEMS, THAT WILL
BE COVERED BY WORKING GROUP 1.
WORKING GROUP 2 OBVIOUSLY IS
FOCUSED ON CONSUMER CHOICE WHICH
OBVIOUSLY INFLUENCES -- IS A
DRIVER FOR PRODUCTION, AND
PRODUCTION CHOICES, SO I THINK
THAT RELATIONSHIP WILL BE
COVERED.
SO I THINKER THERE OPPORTUNITIES
FOR INTERSECTIONS ACROSS THE
GROUPS AND I THINK IT'S BUILT
INTO IT.
WE HEARD FROM WORKING GROUP 1
AND 2 HOW THEY ARE GOING TO
ADDRESS SOME OF THESE.
IT'S IMPORTANT TO SHARE THOSE
QUESTIONS WITH EVERYBODY.
THANK YOU.
>> ANY FURTHER DISCUSSION OR
QUESTIONS AROUND EITHER THE
DISCUSSION PROMPTS THAT MATT
PROVIDED OR AROUND THE FRAMEWORK
PRESENTATION.
>> ONE MORE QUESTION IN THE
CHAT TOO.
TALKING ABOUT THE WEIGHTING HOW
THE DIFFERENT -- HOW THE BULLET
POINTS ARE GOING AFFECT FOOD
SYSTEMS.
DO YOU WANT TO ANSWER THAT?
OR I CAN.
OKAY.
I MEAN, IN SOME WAYS THAT'S
GOING TO BE DRIVEN BY THE DATA.
AND WHAT RESEARCH IS OUT THERE.
WE HAVE -- THERE'S -- THERE'S
TONS OF THINGS PUBLISHED, ON
SOME VERY LITTLE.
OUR UNDERSTANDING OF HOW
IMPORTANT THE STRESSORS WILL BE
IS DRIVEN BY HOW MUCH IS KNOWN,
AND SO I'M NOT SURE THERE'S MUCH
INTERCOMPARISON THAT'S OUT THERE
THAT REALLY APPLES TO APPLES
COMPARES A LOT OF THESE THINGS,
I DON'T KNOW IF WE'LL BE ABLE TO
SUFFICIENTLY WEIGHT THEM BUT
TRYING TO DESCRIBE WHAT IS
KNOWN.
YEAH, WE'RE LIMITED BY THAT.
>> LET ME JUST SAY, THIS IS NOT
SYSTEMATIC REVIEW.
IT'S NOT BECAUSE WE DON'T WANT
TO DO SYSTEMATIC REVIEW.
IT'S A RESOURCE CONSTRAINT AT
THIS POINT.
THERE MAY BE AN OPPORTUNITY TO
DO THAT, IF SO WE WILL DO THAT,
BUT THAT'S SOMEWHAT RELATED TO
THE QUESTION I THINK.
TO THE EXTENT THAT WE CAN DO
THAT, WE WILL.
BUT AT THIS POINT WE'RE NOT ABLE
TO.
I THINK ONCE THESE REPORTS ARE
DEVELOPED AND OUT THERE,
HOPEFULLY THERE WILL BE A NEXT
STEP TO THE ADVANTAGE PROJECT,
AND THAT INCLUDE A MUCH MORE
SYSTEMATIC APPROACH. APPROACH.
>> EXCELLENT.
WELL, WE'VE NOT GOT ADDITIONAL
QUESTIONS HERE, OR INDIVIDUALS
POPPING UP FOR DISCUSSION.
SO AT THIS TIME I THINK WE CAN
TAKE A SHORT BREAK.
WE CAN RETURN JUST BEFORE 11:00
EASTERN, AT WHICH TIME WE'LL
HEAR FROM DR. ANTLE ABOUT
ECONOMIC CONSIDERATIONS HERE.
SO WE WILL SEE YOU ALL IN ABOUT
15 MINUTES. .
IT'S MY PLEASURE TO INTRODUCE
OUR GUEST SPEAKER DR. JOHN ANTLE
JOIN FROM OREGON STATE
UNIVERSITY TO PROVIDE
PERSPECTIVE ABOUT THE ECONOMIC
CHALLENGES OF THIS CLIMATE
ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE FARM SYSTEM
INTERFACE.
THANK YOU FOR JOINING US.
>> THANKS, ROBIN.
AND THANKS FOR THE OPPORTUNITY
TO PARTICIPATE IN GIVING THIS
REALLY IMPORTANT AND INTERESTING
PROJECT GOING.
I'M VOICE CHALLENGED, APOLOGIES,
I'LL BE SIPPING WATER AS I GO TO
HELP LUBRICATE THE VOCAL CORDS.
I NOTICE THAT WHEN YOU
INTRODUCED THIS SESSION THIS
MORNING YOU HAD MY TITLE
ECONOMICS OF CLIMATE AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE IN FOOD
SYSTEMS.
I THINK THE TITLE YOU GAVE ME
ORIGINALLY WAS ON FARMS.
SO THAT'S HOW I CRAFTED MY TALK.
OBVIOUSLY, THERE WILL BE A LOT
OF INTERFACE THERE BETWEEN THE
FARM LEVEL AND AGRICULTURAL
SYSTEMS LEVEL AND BROADER FOOD
SYSTEMS, AND I'LL TALK A BIT
ABOUT THAT BUT JUST SO YOU KNOW
THAT IS MY FOCUS IS MORE ON THE
AGRICULTURAL SYSTEM OR FARM
LEVEL.
I'M GOING TO TOUCH ON THREE
THEMES.
ONE I THINK IS WHAT WE
DISCUSSED, ROBIN, BY E-MAIL A
BIT, HOW CAN WE THINK ABOUT
WHAT'S THE FRAMEWORK FOR
THINKING ABOUT THE ECONOMICS OF
AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS OF FARMS
AND HOW THEY CONNECT TO FOOD
SYSTEMS AS WE MOVE FORWARD IN
THE 21ST CENTURY, AND THEN
I'LL -- A LITTLE BIT OF A
HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE THERE,
AND THEN I'LL TALK ABOUT A
COUPLE OF THE DEMAND SIDE AND
SUPPLY SIDE FORCES THAT
INFLUENCE WHAT FARMERS DO, AND
HOW THAT -- IMPLICATIONS THAT
HAS FOR CLIMATE AND MORE BROADLY
FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT, AND
SORT OF THE THIRD THEME OF MY
TALK IS THIS CONCEPT OF HOW WE
MOVE AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS AND
BROADER FOOD SYSTEM TOWARDS
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
PATHWAYS.
FIRST OF ALL, A FEW THOUGHTS
ABOUT JUST HOW SHOULD WE THINK
ABOUT THIS PROBLEM, AND I THINK
AS HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE IS
HELPFUL, IN THE 20th CENTURY I
THINK IT'S IMPORTANT FOR US TO
KEEP IN MIND AS WE THINK ABOUT,
YOU KNOW, WHERE WE'RE GOING FROM
HERE, HOW WE GOT HERE.
AND IN THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
20th CENTURY INTO THE '60s,
'70s, THERE WAS VERY SERIOUS
CONCERN THE WORLD WAS MOVING
INTO A MALTHUSIAN FUTURE WITH
FOCUS IN IN THE GREEN REVOLUTION
ERA, INCREASING CROP YIELDS,
BASIC GRAIN COMMODITIES,
CALORIES TO FEED THE
SPECTACULARLY GROWING HUMAN
POPULATION IN THE MID-20th
CENTURY.
THE GREEN REVOLUTION DELIVERED
THROUGH GENETIC, MECHANICAL
TECHNOLOGIES TO SUPPLY THAT, IN
FACT THE COST OF BASIC FOOD
COMMODITIES DECLINED IN REAL
TERMS, THROUGHOUT THE 20th
CENTURY, AND THAT CONTINUES
TODAY INTO THE 21st.
BUT OF COURSE, AS WE MOVED -- AS
THE GREEN REVOLUTION MATURED AND
WE MOVED INTO THE 21ST CENTURY,
AND NOT ONLY IN THE
INDUSTRIALIZED SO-CALLED
INDUSTRIALIZED WORLD, WHAT WOULD
REFER TO NOW AS THE POST
INDUSTRIALIZED WORLD
INCREASINGLY IN THE MIDDLE
INCOME PARTS OF THE WORLD AND
LOWER INCOME PARTS OF THE WORLD
WE SAW THIS ONGOING DEMOGRAPHIC
AND NUTRITIONAL TRANSITION WHICH
LET THAT SHIFT FROM JUST CHEAP
CALORIES TOWARDS WHAT I LIKE TO
THINK OF AS QUALITY
DIFFERENTIATED FOOD PRODUCTS.
WHAT I MEAN BY QUALITY ARE ALL
THESE OTHER ATTRIBUTES OF FOOD
AND FOOD SYSTEMS THAT WE ARE
CONCERNED ABOUT, ABOUT PRODUCING
BETTER NUTRITION AND HEALTH,
REDUCING ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS,
ANIMAL WELFARE, GOING DOWN THE
LIST OF ISSUES THAT WE NOW GROUP
UNDER THIS HEADING OF
SUSTAINABILITY, SPANNING FROM
THE ECONOMIC DIMENSIONS TO THE
ENVIRONMENTAL TO THE SOCIAL
DIMENSIONS.
THE OTHER THING ABOUT THE 21ST
CENTURY IS THE CONTINUED DRIVE
TOWARDS SPECIALIZATION.
I THINK AS WE THINK ABOUT THESE
ISSUES AND THESE CHALLENGES, ONE
OF THE MOST FUNDAMENTAL ECONOMIC
FACTORS THAT WE HAVE TO NOT
FORGET IS THAT THAT IS WHAT
IS -- ONE OF THE KEY ELEMENTS
DRIVING THE SYSTEMS, ECONOMICS
OF THESE SYSTEMS, IS THE
ECONOMIC IMPERATIVE TO BE
PRODUCTIVE, TO BE COMPETITIVE,
WHICH LEADS -- HAS LED TO
ONGOING AND SCALE OF PRODUCTION,
NOT JUST IN THE INDUSTRIALIZED
SYSTEMS OF THE U.S. AND EUROPE
AND SOME PARTS OF ASIA AND LATIN
AMERICA, AND OTHER PARTS OF THE
WORLD, BUT INCREASINGLY IN THE
MIDDLE AND LOWER INCOME PARTS OF
THE WORLD.
AND THAT -- THOSE FORCES ARE
SPREADING ACROSS THE FOOD SYSTEM
OF COURSE, NOT JUST AT THE
PRODUCTION LEVEL, BUT IN THE
SUPPLY CHAINS, AND OF COURSE HAS
LED TO THIS GLOBAL FOOD SYSTEM
WE NOW HAVE.
BUT THAT CONTINUED TO PUSH
TOWARDS SPECIALIZATION, WE COULD
SAY SORT OF ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY,
PROBABLY HAS LED TO WHAT WE
MIGHT NOW THINK OF AS A SORT OF
OVERGLOBALIZATION, MAYBE
OVERSPECIALIZATION, BOTH AT THE
FARM PRODUCTION SCALE AND ACROSS
THE SUPPLY CHAIN.
AND WE'VE SEEN OF COURSE WITH
THE PANDEMIC, WE SEE WITH THE
WAR IN UKRAINE, JUST AS RECENT
EXAMPLES, OF THAT SYSTEM THAT WE
HAVE NOW AS BEING VERY
VULNERABLE TO CLIMATE EXTREMES,
POLITICAL SHOCKS, AND NOT
SUSTAINABLE IN MANY RESPECTS.
AND SO THE REAL CHALLENGE IS HOW
WE CAN MOVE THESE SYSTEMS IN
MORE SUSTAINABLE DIRECTIONS.
WELL, ONE OF MY FAVORITE
GRAPHICS THAT I CAN'T RESIST
SHOWING BRIEFLY IS THIS IS A
GRAPH OF REAL U.S. WHEAT PRICES,
REAL MEANING ADJUSTED FOR
INFLATION OVER TIME.
AND JUST MAKING THIS POINT THAT
STARTING IN THE MIDDLE PART OF
THE 20th CENTURY WHICH WE HAD
THE BIG SPIKE, IF WE THINK THE
RECENT INSTABILITY IN FOOD
PRICES IS SHOCKING AND BIG, YOU
KNOW, YOU GO BACK AND LOOK AT
WHAT HAPPENED IN THE 1970s.
THAT DWARFS THE EXPERIENCE WE'VE
HAD MORE RECENTLY.
BUT NEVERTHELESS IF YOU FOOT A
TREND LINE TO THIS COURSE YOU
SEE REAL WHEAT PRICES AS ONE
EXAMPLE HERE HAVE DECLINED FROM
THIS INDEX VALUE OF ABOUT 400
DOWN TO IN THE RANGE OF 100 TO
200, BOUNCING AS WE GET
DIFFERENT SHOCKS AND SO FORTH.
ONE OF THE BIG QUESTIONS WE FACE
NOW ARE WE GOING TO CONTINUE
THIS DOWN TREND, ARE WE GOING TO
REVERSE THAT TRENDS AND GO BACK
UP BECAUSE OF EFFECTS OF CLIMATE
CHANGE AND OTHER THINGS
AFFECTING THE PRODUCTIVITY OF
OUR FOOD SYSTEMS?
BUT TO BRING IT TO THE FARM
LEVEL, THEN, THE WAY I LIKE TO
THINK ABOUT THIS IS HOW WE
IMPROVE THE SUSTAINABILITY OF
THESE HIGHLY DIVERSE
HETEROGENEOUS AND COMPLEX
DYNAMIC SYSTEMS.
THESE CHARACTERISTICS ARE TRUE
FROM WHAT ARE THE STILL VERY
SMALL SEMI SUBSISTENT SYSTEMS
FOR EXAMPLE IN MANY PARTS OF
AFRICA TO THESE VERY LARGE
INDUSTRIAL AGRICULTURAL
COMMODITY HIGHLY SPECIALIZED
COMMODITY PRODUCTION SYSTEMS IN
PLACES LIKE NORTH AMERICA.
I THINK IT'S REALLY INTERESTING
TO ASK YOURSELF WHICH OF THESE
SYSTEMS -- AND OF COURSE WE HAVE
EVERYTHING IN BETWEEN THESE TWO,
THESE TWO EXTREMES TODAY IN THE
WORLD, THAT'S THIS NOTION OF
DIVERSITY.
WHAT'S REALLY INTERESTING ALSO
IS THAT EVEN WITHIN EACH OF
THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS, THEY ARE
HIGHLY HETEROGENEOUS.
AND THEY ARE BOTH VERY COMPLEX
AND DYNAMIC.
BUT I THINK IT'S REALLY
INTERESTING TO ASK OURSELVES
WHICH OF THESE KINDS OF SYSTEMS
IS ACTUALLY MORE SUSTAINABLE?
WE THINK ACROSS DIMENSIONS OF
SUSTAINABILITY, AND I WON'T
SPEND A LOT OF TIME TO DIGRESS
ON THAT QUESTION HERE BUT I
WOULD SUGGEST IN FACT IN SOME
RESPECTS, THE SYSTEM ON THE LEFT
IS YOU MIGHT SAY MORE
SUSTAINABLE AND IN SOME RESPECTS
THE SYSTEM ON THE RIGHT IS MORE
SUSTAINABLE.
AND THIS IS JUST TO HIGHLIGHT
THE FACT THAT THERE ARE MANY
DIMENSIONS OF SUSTAINABILITY.
AND THERE ARE VERY COMPLEX
TRADEOFFS AND INTERACTIONS IN
SYSTEMS.
THAT'S WHAT MAKES IT SO
DIFFICULT FOR US TO UNDERSTAND
THEM AND IMPROVE THEM AND MOVE
THEM IN MORE SUSTAINABLE
DIRECTIONS, AND SO ONE OF THE
THEMES, IDEAS I WANT TO LEAVE
WITH YOU HERE IS THIS IDEA THAT
IF WE FOCUS ON ONE DIMENSION OF
THE SYSTEMS LIKE THE EARLY
20th CENTURY GREEN REVOLUTION
FOCUSED ON YIELD OR CHEAP
CALORIES WE'LL MAKE MISTAKES,
PRODUCE SYSTEMS NOT SUSTAINABLE
IN OUR DIMENSIONS.
LIKE TODAY IF WE FOCUS ON
CLIMATE ALONE WE'LL MAKE
MISTAKES BECAUSE THIS IS
MULTI-DIMENSIONAL, AND SOMETIMES
THE DISCUSSIONS THAT ARE VERY
CLIMATE CENTRIC CONCERN ME
BECAUSE THEY FAIL TO ACKNOWLEDGE
THE OTHER IMPORTANT DIMENSIONS
OF SUSTAINABILITY.
ON LEFT USES NO FOSSIL FUELS,
THIS ONE USES A LOT.
ORIOLES
ON THE OTHER HAND THE SYSTEM ON
THE RIGHT PRODUCES MORE FOOD
MUCH MORE CHEAPLY PER UNIT THAN
SYSTEM ON THE LEFT.
THE FOOD THAT THE WORLD NEEDS TO
FEED ITSELF.
THAT'S THE CHALLENGE WE FACE.
SOME OF THE WORK WE'VE DONE
RECENTLY, THIS IS FROM WORK I'VE
DONE WITH BRUNO BOSSO AT
MICHIGAN STATE UNIVERSITY AND
OTHER FOLKS, THIS DIAGRAM TO
MAKE THIS POINT AGAIN ABOUT THE
COMPLEXITY OF THE SYSTEMS, IS
TOO MUCH DETAIL, TO MAKE THE
POINT THERE ARE VARIOUS ENERGY
NUTRIENT CARBON, WATER, FLOWS
INTO -- THIS IS A CARTOON OF
WHAT YOU MIGHT CONSIDER A
TYPICAL MIDWESTERN SYSTEM THAT
INVOLVES PERHAPS MAYBE
CORN-SOYBEAN ROTATION WITH
PERHAPS LIVE STOCK THROWN IN,
THE VARIOUS WAYS THINGS FLOW OUT
OF THE SYSTEMS, A LOT OF THE
NUTRIENTS FLOW OUT THROUGH THE
GRAIN PRODUCT, OFF THE FARM, AND
THERE ARE EMISSIONS FROM THE
FARM IN TERMS OF CO2, NITROUS
OXIDE, METHANE, THINGS RUNNING
OFF IN TERMS OF WATER, ET
CETERA.
THEN CAN'T FUNCTION WITHOUT
THESE INPUTS AND OUTPUTS, AND
HOW DO WE MAKE THEM WORK BETTER
IN THE VARIOUS DIMENSIONS OF
SUSTAINABILITY.
SO THIS CARTOON IS A
REPRESENTATION OF SOME OF THE
TECHNOLOGYES WE HAVE NOW AND
THAT ARE ONLINE TO HELP US TRY
MANAGE THESE COMPLEX SYSTEMS IN
BETTER WAYS.
KEEPING IN MIND THAT IN DOING
THAT, THEY ALSO HAVE TO BE
GENERATING ENOUGH INCOME TO BE
PROFITABLE TO KEEP FARMS IN
BUSINESS AND FARMERS WILLING TO
CONTINUE TO WORK IN THESE KINDS
OF SYSTEMS.
SO, TO TALK A BIT MORE ABOUT THE
ECONOMICS, THE FARMONOMICS OF
THESE SYSTEMS AND CHALLENGES, I
WAS HAPPY TO HEAR IN YOUR
PROJECT YOU'VE GOT SOME OTHER
WORKING GROUPS FOCUSING ON OTHER
ELEMENTS BUT I LIKE TO THINK OF
SIMPLE ECONOMIC WAY, DEMAND AND
SUPPLY SIDE FACTORINGS.
AND ON THE DEMAND SIDE REALLY
ARE, YOU KNOW, THESE, YOU KNOW,
LOCAL TO NATIONAL TO GLOBAL
SUPPLY CHAINS THAT ARE REALLY
DRIVING THESE FOOD SYSTEMS.
LIKE I SAID, THIS DEMAND FOR
QUALITY BROADLY CONCEIVED AS
THIS WHOLE ARRAY OF ATTRIBUTES
THAT WE CARE ABOUT.
PRICE, QUANTITY, CONVENIENCE,
VERY IMPORTANT, YOU KNOW,
INCREASINGLY AS PEOPLE'S INCOMES
RISE, THEIR TIME IS MORE AND
MORE VALUABLE TO THEM,
CONVENIENCE IS AN INCREDIBLY
IMPORTANT ATTRIBUTE OF FOOD.
VARIETY, NUTRITION, ENVIRONMENT,
ET CETERA.
AND NOTICE THAT WERE MANY OF
THESE ATTRIBUTES OF QUALITY ARE
WHATN MY WORLD, WE OFTEN
REFERRED TO AS A CREDENC
ATTRIBUTE, MANY HARD TO DIRECTLY
OBSERVE, MANY ATTRIBUTES OF FOOD
SAFETY WHEN YOU TAKE YOUR BITE
OF YOUR, YOU KNOW, MEDIUM RARE
HAMBURGER, YOU DON'T KNOW
WHETHER THOSE E. COLI ARE
WORKING THERE OR NOT.
AND EVEN IF YOU GET SICK LATER,
YOU MAY NOT ASSOCIATE THAT WITH
THAT MEDIUM RARE HAMBURGER THAT
YOU ATE.
AND SO FORTH.
MANY OF THESE ATTRIBUTES ARE
PRODUCTION ATTRIBUTES.
WE CARE ABOUT -- I WOULD LIKE TO
BUY FOOD THAN SUSTAINABLY
PRODUCED BUT HOW DO I KNOW IT'S
SUSTAINABLY PRODUCED?
SO THERE'S A HUGE INFORMATION
PROBLEM HERE.
AS WE MOVE FROM THIS PURE
QUANTITY SORT OF CALORIE-BASED
SYSTEM TO I HAD MORE COMPLEX
MULTI-ATTRIBUTE FOOD SYSTEM, ONE
OF THE MOST CHALLENGING ASPECTS
IS HOW WE CONVEY IN AN EFFICIENT
WAY INFORMATION ABOUT THESE
VARIOUS ATTRIBUTES OF FOOD SO
THAT CONSUMERS CAN MAKE INFORMED
DECISIONS AND THROUGH THEIR
CHOICES HELP DRIVE THE SUPPLY
SIDE TOWARDS MORE SUSTAINABLE
SYSTEMS.
ON THE SUPPLY SIDE IS GLOBAL
COMPETITION PUSHING INCREASED
SCALE EFFICIENCIES AND
PRODUCTION AND PROCESSING AND
MARKETING TO THE SUPPLY CHAIN.
ALSO COMMODITIES CROPS LIKE
WHEAT AND MAIZE AND LIVESTOCK,
TO MORE SPECIALIZED LARGER SCALE
OFTEN FARMS WITH CONTRACTUAL
ARRANGEMENTS WITH BUYERS THAT
DEFINE MANY ATTRIBUTES THEY
SHOULD BE ACHIEVING BESIDES JUST
QUANTITY.
BUT OF COURSE THE CHALLENGE THE
GROWERS FIND THE PRODUCERS IS
THERE ARE A LOT OF VERY COMPLEX
TRADEOFFS IN COMPLEX SYSTEMS
BETWEEN THE DRIVE FOR
SPECIALIZATION AND ECONOMIC
EFFICIENCY AND RISKINESS,
RESILIENCE OF THESE SYSTEMS.
YOU COULD SAY GENERALLY THERE'S
A TRADEOFF.
THAT'S ONE OF THE GREAT
CHALLENGES, THAT THE FARM
MANAGERS FACE.
AT THE SAME TIME, MARKETS ARE
DEMANDING THIS SUFFICIENCY IS
LOW COST PER UNIT OF OUTPUT PLUS
THESE OTHER ATTRIBUTES, FOR
EXAMPLE, YOU KNOW, TO SELL TO,
YOU KNOW, A CERTAIN SUPPLY CHAIN
YOU MAY REQUIRE -- MEET A
CERTAIN KIND OF SUSTAINABILITY
CERTIFICATION SO AGAIN NOT ONLY
THIS TRADEOFF AT THE FARM LEVEL
BETWEEN EFFICIENCY AND
RESILIENCE, BUT BETWEEN THOSE
ATTRIBUTES AND THESE OTHER
QUALITY ATTRIBUTES THAT ARE
BEING DEMANDED.
SO, JUST TO WRAP UP, SO HOW DO
WE MOVE AGRICULTURE SYSTEMS IN
THE 21ST CENTURY TOWARDS MORE
SUSTAINABLE OUTCOMES, WHAT I
LIKE TO CALL SUSTAINABLE
DEVELOPMENT PATHWAYS?
RECOGNIZING THAT WE HAVE THESE,
YOU KNOW, JUST SIMPLISTIC TERMS
THREE BROAD DIMENSIONS OF
SUSTAINABILITY, AND AGAIN TO IT
RATE THIS APPOINT UNIDIMENSIONAL
APPROACHES THAT FOCUS ON A FEW
DIMENSIONS BUT IGNORE OTHER
IMPORTANT ASPECTS WILL FAIL TO
BE SUSTAINABLE IN THOSE OTHER
RESPECTS IN MANY CASES, YOU
KNOW, AS ILLUSTRATED BY, YOU
KNOW, THE GREEN REVOLUTION
EMPHASIS ON HIGH YIELD AND I
WOULD SAY EVEN TODAY IN OUR
DISCUSSIONS OF CLIMATE SMART
AGRICULTURE, WE MAY BE FOCUSING,
FOR EXAMPLE, ON, YOU KNOW,
MITIGATION OF GREENHOUSE GASES
TO THE EXCLUSION OF OTHER
IMPORTANT ASPECTS OF THE
SYSTEMS, OTHER IMPORTANT QUALITY
ASPECTS OF FOOD, FOR EXAMPLE,
LIKE NUTRITIONAL CONTENT.
AND FINALLY, I'LL JUST MAKE THE
CASE FOR, YOU KNOW, HOW DO WE --
IN THE POLICY DOMAIN HOW DO WE
REALLY GET THERE?
AND TO ME THE GREATEST CHALLENGE
IS THE LACK OF POLITICAL WILL WE
HAVE TO REALLY INVEST IN
DEVELOPING MORE SUSTAIN ANALYSIS
ITEMS.
WE KNOW A LOT ABOUT WHAT WE NEED
TO DO.
WE HAVE A LOT OF THE SCIENCE.
AND TO YOUR PROJECT'S POINT
ABOUT, YOU KNOW, EVIDENCE-BASED
AND WHERE DO WE NEED MORE DATA,
CLEARLY ONE OF OUR BIG
CHALLENGES NOW, YOU KNOW, KIND
OF THE THEME OF MY TALK, IS HOW
WE UNDERSTAND THE INTERACTIONS
AMONG THESE DIFFERENT DIMENSIONS
OF SUSTAINABILITY AT THE
PRODUCTION SYSTEM LEVEL IS THE
GREAT -- I WOULD SAY ONE OF THE
GREAT SCIENTIFIC CHALLENGES WE
FACE RIGHT NOW.
AND THEN THE SECOND PART IN THE
POLICY DOMAIN IS THE POLITICAL
WILL TO ACTUALLY TAKE THE
COLLECTIVE ACTIONS NEEDED TO
HELP INCENTIVIZE AND MOVE THESE
SYSTEMS EVEN IF WE KNOW WHAT --
YOU KNOW, HOW TO DESIGN AND
CREATE MORE SUSTAINABLE SYSTEMS
WE HAVE TO CREATE A SYSTEM THAT
WILL BE ADOPTED BY FARMERS AND
USED, AND THAT'S ALSO A BIG
CHALLENGE.
A FINAL COMMENT, ONE EXAMPLE
THAT PICTURE I SHOWED EARLIER OF
THAT VERY LARGE MACHINE, THAT'S
ACTUALLY A FARMER WHO IS
PRODUCING WHEAT USING A VERY,
YOU KNOW, SUSTAINABLE SYSTEM,
PRODUCING WHEAT SO THE SOIL
DOESN'T HAVE TO BE TILLED WHICH
INCREASES AND MAINTAINS MORE
CARBON IN THE SOIL AND HELPS
MITIGATE GREENHOUSE GAS
EMISSIONS FROM THOSE KINDS OF
AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS.
WHEN WE LOOK AT THOSE SYSTEMS
WHAT WE FIND IS TO IMPROVE THEIR
ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE AS WELL AS
THEIR SUSTAINABILITY IN TERMS OF
GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS, THOSE
KINDS OF MORE SUSTAINABLE
SYSTEMS ARE NOT COMPETITIVE WITH
JUST THE SIMPLE, YOU KNOW,
SIMPLER MORE CONVENTIONAL
TILLAGE, MONO-CROP SYSTEMS.
AND EITHER HIGHER PRICES, FOR
EXAMPLE, FOR THE BIOFUEL CROP
THAT COULD BE ROTATED WITH THAT
WHEAT OR SOMETHING LIKE PAYING
FORMERS FOR THE CARBON
SEQUESTERED IN THE SYSTEMS IS
NEEDED VERSUS THE MORE
CONVENTIONAL SYSTEM.
THAT'S THE ECONOMIC CHALLENGE WE
FACE AT THE FARM LEVEL TO NOT
ONLY HAVE THE SCIENCE TO DEVELOP
THE TECHNOLOGIES AND SYSTEMS
THAT CAN BE MORE SUSTAINABLE BUT
ALSO MAKING THEM ECONOMICALLY
VIABLE FOR THE FARMERS WHO NEED
TO ADOPT THEM.
WELL, SO I'M JUST GOING TO STOP
THERE.
THANKS FOR THE OPPORTUNITY TO
SHARE SOME OF MY IDEAS WITH YOU,
AND JUST TO LIST A FEW OF THE
SOURCES THAT I DREW ON FOR THIS
PRESENTATION AND I LOOK FORWARD
TO THE DISCUSSION.
>> EXCELLENT.
WE HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY HERE,
JUST AS BEFORE, FOR SOME
DISCUSSION BASED ON DR. ANTLE'S
CONTRIBUTION.
IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS YOU'RE
WELCOME TO UNMUTE YOURSELF, AND
ASK THOSE DIRECTLY.
TO SEND THEM VIA E-MAIL OR TO
PUT THEM IN THE CHAT.
IT LOOKS LIKE DAN IS GOING TO
START US OFF.
DAN, WOULD YOU LIKE TO START?
>> THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR THAT
PRESENTATION.
THAT WAS GREAT.
IT REALLY THINK DOES IN MANY
RESPECTS REINFORCE THE NEED FOR
THIS PROJECT.
PARTICULARLY I THINK REINFORCES
THE NOTION OF ECOLOGY, AND YOUR
POINT ABOUT EMPHASIZING ONE
COMPONENT OF THE SUSTAINABILITY
PICTURE TO THE EXCLUSION OF
OTHERS.
THE QUESTION THAT I HAVE FOR YOU
WITH REGARD TO THIS SPECIFIC
CHALLENGE OF OUR PROJECT IS WHAT
SORT OF MEASURES AND METRICS CAN
WE USE TO GET AT THE PUTTING
THIS ECOLOGICAL APPROACH INTO
APPLICATION?
>> SURE.
ACTUALLY WE'VE PUT TOGETHER SOME
TABLE ALSO OF INDICATORS WE CAN
USE FOR AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS AND
I COULD SHARE SOME OF THOSE WITH
YOU.
SO THERE'S STANDARD ONES IN THE
ECONOMIC REALM, YOU KNOW, LIKE I
MENTIONED CROP YIELD,
PROFITABILITY, FARM INCOME, AND
SO FORTH, THE ECONOMIC
DIMENSION, AND DATA TO VARYING
DEGREES ARE OUT THERE TO
QUANTIFY THOSE.
OF COURSE IN THE ENVIRONMENTAL
DIMENSION, WE HAVE METRICS ON
BOTH AT THE FARM LEVEL AND SORT
OF WHAT GOES OFF THE FARM.
FOR EXAMPLE, THAT STUDY I WAS
JUST MENTIONING ON WHEAT SYSTEMS
IN THE NORTHWEST, WE
INCORPORATED A LIFE CYCLE
ANALYSIS THAT LOOKED AT THE SORT
OF NET GREENHOUSE GAS
CONTRIBUTION OF THAT TYPE OF
SYSTEM AT THE FARM AND KIND OF
ALSO EXTENDING OUT, YOU KNOW,
SORT OF THE INPUTS GOING INTO
THE SYSTEM AND ALSO THE PRODUCTS
GOING OUT INTO THE SUPPLY CHAIN.
I THINK -- AND MANY MODELS AND
METRICS OUT THERE NOWADAYS IN
THE ENVIRONMENTAL DIMENSION THAT
CAN BE INCORPORATED, AND WE
ACTUALLY DID A PROJECT A YEAR OR
TWO AGO FOR THE INTERNATIONAL
AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH PROGRAMS
WHERE WE WERE LOOKING AT SOME OF
THESE QUESTIONS, AND WE MADE THE
POINT THAT THE PLACE WHETHER WE
REALLY -- THAT THE BIGGER
CHALLENGES I THINK IN THE
METRICS ARE -- AND THIS IS WHAT
YOU FOLKS KNOW ABOUT, MORE THAN
I, BUT WHEN WE GET INTO THE, YOU
KNOW, HUMAN NUTRITION, AND FOOD
QUALITY ASPECTS RELATED TO THAT,
THAT THE DATA CHALLENGES GET
PRETTY DIFFICULT.
AND EVEN MORE SO IF YOU WANT TO
TALK ABOUT SOME OTHER
ATTRIBUTES, YOU MIGHT CALL THEM
SOCIAL ATTRIBUTES, RELATED TO
THINGS LIKE ANIMAL WELFARE,
GENDER-RELATED ISSUES, FOR
EXAMPLE, WHERE WE REALLY DON'T
HAVE MODELS.
YOU KNOW, WE HAVE WAYS TO
MEASURE SOME OF THE THINGS WE
THINK ARE IMPORTANT, BUT AS YOU
KNOW, FOR EXAMPLE, LOOK AT THE
NUTRITIONAL ISSUES RELATED TO
PRODUCTION SYSTEMS IN MOST SMALL
SCALE FARMING SYSTEMS IN UGANDA
LIKE THAT PICTURE I SHOWED YOU,
TO HAVE THE KIND OF DATA WE NEED
ABOUT WHAT PEOPLE ACTUALLY
CONSUME AND HOW DIFFERENT
SYSTEMS IMPACT THEIR NUTRITION,
YOU KNOW, IS VERY CHALLENGING.
SO THE DATA CHALLENGE THERE IS
VERY HIGH.
>> THANKS SO MUCH FOR THAT
RESPONSE.
WE HAVE ANOTHER QUESTION IN THE
CHAT.
CAN YOU GIVE A PERSPECTIVE ON
THE ROLE OF ANIMALS IN BROAD
FARM ECOLOGY?
FOR EXAMPLE SMALL SCALE VERSUS
INDUSTRIALIZED APPROACHES.
>> HMM.
WELL, I CAN TRY.
AND I HAVE A FEELING ROBIN, YOU
COULD PROBABLY ANSWER THAT
QUESTION BETTER THAN I CAN.
I'LL TRY TO COMMENT ON IT A BIT
MORE FROM THE ECONOMIC SIDE.
SO, I THINK IT REALLY -- YOU
KNOW, ONE OF THE THINGS THAT'S
BEING DISCUSSED A LOT TODAY, I'M
SURE YOU GUYS KNOW, IS DIFFERENT
LABELS, BUT I'LL USE THE TERM
REGENERATIVE AGRICULTURE, ONE
THAT'S POPULAR TODAY BUT WE
HAVE, YOU KNOW, CALL IT
SUSTAINABLE, WE CAN CALL IT
OTHER THINGS.
AGAIN, THIS POINT THAT I WOULD
EMPHASIZE HAS TO DO WITH SCALE.
AND WE KNOW THAT IN SOME
RESPECTS -- WELL, YOU KNOW, WE
ALL KNOW THAT THERE ARE MANY
PROBLEMS WITH LARGE SCALE LIVE
STOCK PRODUCTION NOW IN TERMS OF
SUSTAINABILITY, AND PARTICULARLY
GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS,
METHANE EMISSIONS IN PARTICULAR.
AND THEN CARRY THAT OVER TO THE
HEALTH SIDE, ON CONSUMPTION SIDE
IN TERMS OF DIETS AND SO FORTH.
JUST SPEAKING ON THE
ENVIRONMENTAL SIDE OF THE
PRODUCTION SYSTEMS, I THINK BIG
CHALLENGE IS THAT AT VERY SMALL
SCALE THE AGRICULTURE SYSTEMS
ARE VERY INEFFICIENT.
WE GET A LITTLE BIT LARGER SCALE
WHERE ACTUALLY HAVING MIXED CROP
LIVESTOCK SYSTEMS ARE VERY
SUSTAINABLE, IN A LOT OF THE
ENVIRONMENTAL DIMENSIONS,
ALTHOUGH THEY ARE STILL
RELATIVELY SMALL AND THEREFORE
NOT PRODUCING INCOMES THAT ARE
VERY HIGH, BUT THEN WHEN WE WANT
TO GO BEYOND THAT TO IMPROVE THE
INCOMES THAT THOSE SYSTEMS
PRODUCE FOR PEOPLE, THEY BECOME
LESS SUSTAINABLE BECAUSE THEY
BECOME LESS -- THEY BECOME MORE
SPECIALIZED, LESS INTEGRATED.
AND SO I THINK THE CHALLENGE WE
FACE TODAY IN TRYING TO, YOU
KNOW, TAKE, YOU KNOW, WHAT HAS
BECOME THESE VERY, VERY LARGE
SCALE, HIGHLY SPECIALIZED
SYSTEMS, AND MAKE THEM MORE
SUSTAINABLE, IS THAT WE'RE --
YOU KNOW, WE'RE TRYING TO BRING
THEM BACK TO THE THE GOOD OLD S
BUT THE GOOD OLD DAYS HAD
ISSUES, DIDN'T PRODUCE HIGH
INCOMES FOR PEOPLE ON THE FARM
SO THAT'S NOT VERY ACCEPTABLE.
WHAT WE NEED TO DO I THINK
RATHER THAN TRYING TO
NECESSARILY GO BACK TO THE OLD
DAYS IS TO TRY TO USE THE
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY WE HAVE
TODAY TO MAKE, YOU KNOW, LARGE
SCALE EFFICIENCIES ITEMS MORE
SUSTAINABLE IF THAT'S --
EFFICIENT SYSTEMS MORE
SUSTAINABLE.
WE NEED TO RECOGNIZE THERE'S
GOING TO BE AN ECONOMIC COST TO
SIMPLY BRINGING THOSE SYSTEMS
BACK AND MAKING THEM SOMEWHAT
MORE ENVIRONMENTALLY AND MORE
SUSTAINABLE IN OTHER DIMENSIONS,
MAYBE THAT'S JUST THE PRICE WE
HAVE TO PAY.
AGAIN, THERE ARE SOME TRADEOFFS
THERE.
WE HAVE TO RECOGNIZE AND ACCEPT
THEM AND DEAL WITH.
IMPORTANT POINT IN RELATION TO
THE FARM PEOPLE WE HAVE TO
RECOGNIZE, WE THE CONSUMERS,
URBAN CONSUMERS, HAVE TO
UNDERSTAND THAT'S IMPOSING A
COST ON THEM, ECONOMIC COST,
THAT HAS TO BE PAID BY SOMEONE.
IF IT'S JUST TO BE PAID BY THEM,
IT'S GOING TO BE A HARD --
YOU'LL HAVE A HARD TIME
CONVINCING THEM THAT THEY SHOULD
DO IT.
I DON'T FLOW -- I DON'T KNOW IF
THAT ANSWERED YOUR QUESTION.
>> YOU GOT A THANK UP IN THE
CHAT.
>> CAME CLOSE.
VETS COMPLICATED.
THIS IS NANCY KREBS.
I POSED THE QUESTION.
BUT I THINK IT'S SO TRUE THAT
THE MARKET AND HAVING THE
FARMERS BE ABLE TO HAVE A
SUSTAINABLE LIFE, YOU KNOW, FOR
THEMSELVES, ALSO PLAYS INTO
THIS.
AND SO WHAT I'M THINKING ABOUT
IS ALL THE MESSAGES ABOUT NO
MEAT, BUT IT'S REALLY MORE ABOUT
NO MEAT THE WAY WE'RE CURRENTLY
PRODUCING IT, AND WOULD WE BE
BETTER OFF HAVING REGENERATIVE
AGRICULTURE THAT HAS A WHOLE
ECOLOGY ITSELF, YOU KNOW, WE'VE
LOST A LOT OF THE ECOLOGY IN
FARMING AS IT IS CURRENTLY.
>> EXACTLY.
NO, I TOTALLY AGREE WITH THAT,
BUT IF IT'S LESS PROFITABLE FOR
THE FARMER.
>> YEAH.
>> WE'VE GOT TO UNDERSTAND
THAT.
>> RIGHT.
>> AND DEAL WITH THAT.
>> YES.
>> SO JUST A QUICK ANECDOTE,
YOU KNOW, SO A FEW YEARS AGO I
WAS WORKING WITH AN ORGANIZATION
CALLED WORLD FISH, WHICH, YOU
KNOW, ONE OF THEIR BIG
TECHNOLOGIES IS INTEGRATING POND
AQUACULTURE WITH SMALL-SCALE
LIVESTOCK AND CROP PRODUCTION,
YOU KNOW, IN AFRICA, SOUTH ASIA,
THOSE PARTS OF THE WORLD.
WHAT YOU FIND WITH THOSE SYSTEMS
AT A SMALL SCALE BY RECYCLING
NUTRIENTS IN THE SYSTEMS THEY
CAN BE MORE EFFICIENT AND MORE
SUSTAINABLE, NO QUESTION.
DATA SHOW THAT CLEARLY.
BUT WHAT I FOUND HAVING WHEN YOU
GO TO BANGLADESH, GO ON FARMS,
TALK TO FARMERS, WHAT YOU FIND
IS THAT TO GO BEYOND A CERTAIN
SCALE AS THEY WANT TO SCALE UP
AND MAKE BETTER INCOMES FOR
THEMSELVES, THAT INTEGRATED
SYSTEM DOESN'T WORK
ECONOMICALLY.
AND SO THAT, TO ME, THAT WAS
JUST A WONDERFUL ILLUSTRATION OF
THIS CHALLENGE.
YOU KNOW, AND SO HERE WE HAVE
THIS GREAT RESEARCH SHOWS HERE
IS HOW TO TAKE SUPER SMALL
REALLY OR NOT VERY SUSTAINABLE
FARMS, PUT THE PONDS ON THEM,
MAKE THEM MORE SUSTAINABLE, AND
WE TRY TO GO THE NEXT STEP UP
AND IT FALLS APART.
SO, THESE ARE THE COMPLEX
CHALLENGES WE FACE IN TRYING TO
DEAL WITH THESE PROBLEMS.
>> THANK YOU.
>> WE'LL GO OVER TO MATT NOW.
>> GREAT.
THANKS, JOHN.
I HAVE TWO QUESTIONS BUT I'LL
START WITH ONE AND IF I HAVE
TIME I'LL ASK THE SECOND ONE.
YOU WERE SAYING A LOT OF PEOPLE
FOCUS TOO NARROWLY ON CLIMATE TO
THE EXCLUSION OF OTHER THINGS, I
AGREE, AND PART OF OUR FRAMEWORK
IS BROADENING THAT LENS TO
THINGS BEYOND CLIMATE.
BUT I WONDER IF WE WERE ALSO
TALKING ABOUT TWO DIFFERENT
THINGS IN THAT YOU'RE SAYING THE
OVERFOCUS ON CLIMATE IS REALLY
TALKING ABOUT THE OVERFOCUS ON
SUSTAINABILITY OF A FARM AND THE
LOWERING THE FOOTPRINT OF HOW
MUCH A FARM WILL FEEDBACK TO THE
GLOBAL EITHER CLIMATE SYSTEM OR
ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEM WRIT LARGE.
AND, YOU KNOW, THAT'S GOING TO
BE A PART OF WHAT WE'RE DOING,
PART OF OUR WORKING GROUP.
A LOT OF IT IS REALLY FOCUSED ON
HOW CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENT THT
IS OUTSIDE THE FARM IS COMING TO
IMPACT THE FARM.
HOW CLIMATE CHANGE AND OTHER
ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGES MIGHT
IMPACT ON FARM OPERATIONS OR
SUSTAINABILITY OF FARMING
OPERATIONS.
SO FROM YOUR ECONOMICS
PERSPECTIVE DO YOU FEEL LIKE
THERE ARE ANY THINGS THERE THAT
WE SHOULD INCLUDE IN TERMS OF
THE BREADTH OF THE TYPES OF
STRESSORS THAT MIGHT AFFECT A
FARM, OR IN TERMS OF DISCUSSION,
THINGS WE MIGHT WANT TO INCLUDE
FOR CONTEXT, SO WAYS THAT A
FARMER MIGHT, YOU KNOW, NEED TO
ADAPT OR NOT ADAPT TO A LOT OF
THESE DIFFERENT STRESSORS BASED
ON ECONOMIC FORCES?
>> HMM.
SO, YEAH, I WILL SAY JUST A
QUICK THOUGHT, TO SOME DEGREE
THAT COMMENT OF MINE ABOUT, YOU
KNOW, FOCUSING, BEING TOO
CLIMATE CENTRIC IS MORE ON THE
MITIGATION SIDE.
YOUR DASHED ARROW.
THAT FEEDBACK PART FROM THE PART
FROM AGRICULTURE TO THE CLIMATE.
WHERE THE CONCERN I'VE HAD IS
THAT PEOPLE WHO FOCUS POLICY
JUST ON GREENHOUSE GAS
EMISSIONS, FOR EXAMPLE, TO THE
EXCLUSION OF OTHER
CONSIDERATIONS.
BUT IN TERMS OF HOW THE WORLD
IMPACTS -- CLIMATE CHANGE
IMPACTS AGRICULTURE, YOU KNOW, I
THINK, YOU KNOW, WE'RE
INCREASINGLY GETTING A PRETTY
GOOD GRIP ON THE SCIENCE OF
THAT.
AND SO IN THAT -- THAT'S THE
GOOD NEWS PROBABLY FROM THE --
AT LEAST IN TERMS OF THE -- SOME
OF THE BASIC PRODUCTION ASPECTS,
BUT THERE'S SOME IMPORTANT
ASPECTS THAT ARE NOT REALLY WELL
UNDERSTOOD AT ALL NOW, MAYBE
THIS IS A LITTLE BIT TO ANSWER
YOUR QUESTION.
SO, FOR EXAMPLE, THE PEST AND
DISEASE ASPECTS OF AGRICULTURAL
SYSTEMS, HOW THEY ARE IMPACTED
BY CLIMATE, IS LARGELY NOT
UNDERSTOOD I WOULD ARGUE.
PARTLY BECAUSE OF THE MODELS
DON'T INCORPORATE THAT, THAT WE
HAVE TODAY.
LIVESTOCK -- AND CROP -- AND
CROP SYSTEMS, ROBIN MAYBE --
INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT ROBIN
THINKS ABOUT THIS, CROPPING
SYSTEMS ARE PROBABLY UNDERSTOOD
BETTER THAN LIVE STOCK SYSTEMS
IN TERMS OF CLIMATE IMPACTS
AGAIN BECAUSE MODELS WE HAVE FOR
ANIMAL SYSTEMS ARE JUST NOT AS
WELL DEVELOPED AS THE CROP-BASED
SYSTEMS, BUT THERE ARE A NUMBER
OF IMPORTANT CROPS WE DON'T HAVE
GOOD MODELS FOR EITHER.
JUST IN THE LAST TEN YEARS OR
SO, FOR EXAMPLE, THIS GROUP I'M
INVOLVED WITH HAS MADE A LOT OF
ADVANCES AND IMPROVING
UNDERSTANDING HOW TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIP AND CARBON AND OTHER
THINGS INTERACT IN CROPS AND
IMPROVE THE WAY THOSE MODELS
WORK TO, FOR EXAMPLE, REPRESENT
CLIMATE EXTREMES BUT I THINK THE
LIVESTOCK MODELS ARE STILL WAY
BEHIND CROP MODELS.
ROBIN, WHAT DO YOU THINK?
>> IN GENERAL MOST OF LIVESTOCK
IS 10 TO 15 YEARS BEHIND CROP
TECHNOLOGY, A FAIR BUT
UNFORTUNATE STATEMENT.
>> SO, MATT, I DON'T KNOW IF I
ANSWERED YOUR QUESTION.
>> YEAH, NO, I APPRECIATE THAT.
YEAH, THANK YOU.
I'M HAPPY TO ASK MY SECOND
QUESTION, OR IF SOMEONE ELSE
WANTS TO ASK.
>> GO AHEAD, MATT.
>> THIS IS A LITTLE BIT
DIFFERENT.
I GUESS I WANT TO GO BACK TO THE
POINT THAT WAS SURPRISING TO ME.
YOU WERE SAYING THAT YOU THOUGHT
THAT THE WORLD HAD KIND OF MOVED
TOWARD SPECIALIZATION AND
GLOBALIZATION AND WE MIGHT BE
TIPPING TOWARDS
OVERGLOBALIZATION, SORT OF
INCREASING OUR VULNERABILITY TO
SHOCKS, POLITICAL SHOCKS,
CLIMATE SHOCKS.
AND THAT, I HADN'T HEARD THAT
BEFORE BECAUSE I OFTEN HEARD
THAT GLOBALIZATION WAS SORT OF
THIS INSULATION AGAINST THOSE
KINDS OF SHOCKS BECAUSE IF YOU
HAVE A SHOCK IN, YOU KNOW,
SOMEWHERE IN THE WORLD THAT YOU
HAVE THIS GLOBAL TRADE THAT'S
ABLE TO FLOW TO HEAL THAT.
I WONDER IF YOU COULD SAY MORE
ABOUT WHAT YOU THINK THE
VULNERABILITIES ARE FOR
GLOBALIZATION?
>> SURE.
RIGHT, WHAT YOU JUST DESCRIBED
IS WHAT A LOT OF ECONOMISTS
WOULD SAY.
OH, TRADE, YOU KNOW, ALLOWS US
TO, YOU KNOW -- SO WHEAT IS
PRODUCED IN MANY PARTS OF THE
WORLD, AND SO WE GET A WAR IN
UKRAINE BUT THE REST OF THE
WORLD CAN MAKE UP FOR THAT.
SO THAT'S TRUE.
BUT AT THE SAME TIME, WE'VE, YOU
KNOW, MOVED -- YOU KNOW, AS WE
MAKE OURSELVES INCREASINGLY
DEPENDENT ON THAT GLOBAL SYSTEM,
THAT GLOBALIZED SYSTEM, YOU
KNOW, WHAT IT MEANS IS THAT IF
WE DO GET, YOU KNOW, AN
INCREASINGLY SPECIALIZED AND
INCREASINGLY SORT OF, YOU KNOW,
JUST-IN-TIME KIND OF INVENTORIES
AND ALL THIS SORT OF THING, THAT
KIND OF SYSTEM -- AS WE SAW IN
THE PANDEMIC, THE SUPPLY CHAINS
ACTUALLY ARE MUCH MORE FRAGILE
THAN WE REALIZED IN MANY
RESPECTS.
NOT JUST FOOD BUT OTHER THINGS
AS WELL.
ONE OF MY EXPERIENCES, YOU KNOW,
THIS WASN'T EXACTLY FOOD BUT DO
YOU REMEMBER THE VOLCANOS THAT
HAPPENED IN ICELAND BACK, I
DON'T KNOW, TEN YEARS AGO OR SO?
AND WHEN IN A HAPPENED I JUST
HAPPENED TO BE IN NAIROBI, AND
SO THE FLOWERS THAT WERE BEING
SHIPPED FROM NAIROBI TO EUROPE
WERE BEING SOLD ON THE STREETS
OF NAIROBI FOR NOTHING BECAUSE
THE 747s COULDN'T FLY.
SO, YOU KNOW, I DON'T THINK WE
REALIZE HOW ACTUALLY VULNERABLE
IN MANY WAYS THESE GLOBALIZED
SYSTEMS ARE BECOMING TO THOSE
KINDS OF DISRUPTIONS AND SHOCKS.
AND SO I DO THINK THAT THAT PLUS
POLITICS AND OTHER THINGS, YOU
KNOW, ALSO TO SOME DEGREE
SUSTAINABILITY CONSIDERATIONS
LIKE, YOU KNOW, COST OF
TRANSPORT AND ALL THAT ARE
ENCOURAGING, YOU KNOW, MORE
THINKING -- YOU KNOW, THE WHOLE
LOCAL FOOD MOVEMENT, ALL OF
THAT.
WE KNOW, YES, THAT'S NICE IN
SOME RESPECTS BUT IN SOME
RESPECTS IT'S REALLY NICE TO GET
MY, YOU KNOW, TOMATOES FROM
MEXICO IN THE WINTER WHEN WE
CAN'T GROW THEM HERE IN OREGON.
AND SO, YOU KNOW, YEAH WE DON'T
WANT TO PUSH -- WE DON'T WANT TO
GO TOO FAR FROM THE GLOBALIZED
SYSTEM EITHER BECAUSE ITS THAT
MANY GREAT ADVANTAGES BUT I
THINK WE'RE NOW STARTING TO
UNDERSTAND THAT IT HAS MANY
VULNERABILITIES, AND WE NEED TO
BE MORE CAREFUL ABOUT HOW WE,
YOU KNOW, DEAL WITH THOSE
VULNERABILITIES.
>> EXCELLENT.
MATT, DID YOU HAVE MORE
QUESTIONS OR IS THAT GOOD?
>> NO, I'M DONE.
THANK YOU.
>> ALL RIGHT.
WE HAD A BIT OF A LONGER FIRST
BREAK SO I'M GOING TO BE SELFISH
HERE AND EAT INTO OUR SECOND
BREAK JUST A LITTLE BIT WITH
MAYBE ONE FINAL QUESTION, I
WONDER IF YOU CAN COMMENT ABOUT
THE ECONOMIC -- I'LL CALL THEM
STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES OF
RELYING ON SUPPLY SIDE
INTERVENTION FOR ENHANCING FOOD
SYSTEMS SECURITY OR FOOD
SUSTAINABILITY VERSUS DEMAND
SIDE INTERVENTION.
>> HMM.
WELL, I GUESS THE WAY I WOULD
PUT IT IS WE NEED BOTH.
SO MAYBE THAT'S SAYING WE DON'T
WANT TO RELY JUST ON SUPPLY
SIDE.
BECAUSE I THINK THE DEMAND SIDE
OF COURSE IS VERY IMPORTANT.
WE NEED TO SEND THE MARKET
SIGNALS FROM THE DEMAND SIDE
LIKE I WAS DESCRIBING IN MY
PRESENTATION.
BUT THERE ARE BIG CHALLENGES TO
DO THAT ALSO.
SO, WHETHER IT'S MORE SUPPORT
FOR FOOD -- FOR QUALITY
CERTIFICATION, OTHER KINDS OF
APPROACHES, BUT LIKE I SAID IT'S
THIS BIG INFORMATION PROBLEM FOR
THE CONSUMER, SO WE NEED TO HELP
ADDRESS THAT CHALLENGE.
BUT AT THE SAME TIME, WE NEED
INVESTMENT ON THE SUPPLY SIDE
FOR THE TECHNOLOGIES AND WE
NEED, WHEN NECESSARY, THE
ECONOMIC SUPPORT ON SUPPLY SIDE
TO MAKE THOSE TECHNOLOGIES
ECONOMICALLY VIABLE, COMPETITIVE
FOR PRODUCERS.
YOU KNOW, THAT KIND OF CARRIES
SUPPLY CHAIN AS WELL.
SO, I THINK BOTH ARE ESSENTIAL
IF WE REALLY -- YOU KNOW,
BECAUSE, YOU KNOW, MOVING THE
FOOD SYSTEM IN A MORE
SUSTAINABLE DIRECTION IS JUST AS
MUCH A CHALLENGE, MAYBE MORE, AS
MOVING OUR ENERGY SYSTEM IN A
SUSTAINABLE DIRECTION.
THESE ARE BOTH LARGE COMPLEX
SYSTEMS WITH HUGE AMOUNTS OF
EXISTING SORT OF INVESTMENT IN
INFRASTRUCTURE THAT HAS TO BE
MOVED AND CHANGED.
AND SO WE NEED TO ATTACK IT FROM
BOTH SIDES TO BE ABLE TO REALLY
MOVE IT EFFICIENTLY AND
EFFECTIVELY AND AS QUICKLY AS WE
CAN AND IN BETTER DIRECTIONS.
>> THANK YOU FOR THE
PERSPECTIVE.
WE'RE GOING TO GO AHEAD AND
SWITCH GEARS NOW AND MOVE INTO
OUR SHORT DISCUSSIONS OF THE
DIFFERENT EXAMPLE FOOD SYSTEMS
SO THAT WE CAN EXPLORE ANIMALS,
AQUATIC SYSTEMS, CROPPING
SYSTEMS, AND HOW THEY WORK INTO
OUR WORKING GROUP'S PURVIEW AND
INTO THE FRAMEWORK WE'VE
DISCUSSED.
SO WE'LL GO AHEAD AND START WITH
ANIMAL SYSTEMS, SO WE'LL TALK
PRIMARILY ABOUT TERRESTRIAL
LIVESTOCK HERE.
WHEN WE THINK ABOUT INTERPLAY,
EXCUSE ME, SOME DISCLOSURES, OUR
LAB RECEIVED FUNDING TO PROVIDE
RESEARCH.
WHEN WE THINK ABOUT THIS
INTERSECTION OF CLIMATE
ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE AND FOOD
SYSTEMS, LIVESTOCK I WOULD ARGUE
ARE PERHAPS HIGHLY CENTRAL AND
HIGHLY DEBATED TO THIS
PARTICULAR CYCLE.
ON ONE END OF THE SPECTRUM, WE
ACKNOWLEDGE THAT, FOR EXAMPLE,
IN THE CONTEXT OF UNITED STATES
GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS, WHICH
ARE JUST OVER 6 MILLION METRIC
TONS OF CO2 EQUIVALENCE
ANNUALLY, LIVESTOCK ACCOUNTS FOR
4% BUT GLOBALLY ESTIMATES ARE
MUCH LARGER THAN THAT,
SUGGESTING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 7
AND 14% OF GLOBAL GREENHOUSE GAS
EMISSIONS.
ONE OF THE MAJOR CHALLENGES WITH
LICHES IN
-- LIVESTOCK IN THE U.S. IS
NOT HOW THEY COMPARE TO TOTAL
EMISSIONS PROFILE BUT THE FACT
EMISSIONS FROM ANIMAL
AGRICULTURE HAVE INCREASED 20%
SINCE 1990.
AND TO PUT IT IN A LITTLE BIT
DIFFERENT CONTEXT, IF WE RANKED
U.S. ANIMAL AGRICULTURE AS ITS
OWN COUNTRY, IT WOULD RANK 23RD
GLOBALLY.
WE HAVE A LOT TO TALK BECOME IN
THE ANIMAL AGRICULTURE SPACE, ON
THE DASHED SIDE.
IN TERMS OF THE VERTICAL FLOW
THROUGH THE FRAMEWORK THAT WE
DESCRIBED PREVIOUSLY, WE
ESTIMATE OR RECENT ESTIMATES
SUGGEST THAT JUST LOOKING AT
BEEF, DAIRY, SHEEP, GOATS,
ANNUAL LOSSES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND $40 BILLION ASSOCIATED
WITH IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
ON RUMINANT LIVESTOCK.
WE DON'T TALK ABOUT THAT SIDE OF
THE ARROW WHEN DISCUSSING STABLE
FOOD SYSTEMS IT BECOMES QUITE
CRITICAL.
IN TERMS OF OUR FRAMEWORK, HOW
WE CAN APPLY WITH SOME SPECIFIC
EXAMPLES TO LIVESTOCK, MUCH OF
OUR KNOWLEDGE CENTERS IN THE
FIRST BOX ON HOW THINGS LIKE
CHANGES IN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE
AND RAINFALL ARE GOING TO
INFLUENCE ANIMAL PRODUCTIVITY,
MORTALITY, AND HOW ANIMALS
RESPOND TO MORE AND INTENSE
EXTREME EVENTS.
SO LIVE STOCK ARE MAMMALS,
RUMINANT IN PARTICULAR ARE
MAMMALS, AND THEY RELY ON
TRADITIONAL HEAT ABATEMENT
MECHANISMS TO MAINTAIN BODY
TEMPERATURE IN A VERY NARROW
RANGE JUST LIKE HUMANS DO.
THEY LEVERAGE CONDUCTIVE AND
EVAMP A ACTIVE -- EVAPORATIVE
AND CONDUCTIVE HEAT LOSS,
MAINTAINING IN THE NARROWLY
DEFINED PHYSIOLOGICALLY
APPROPRIATE RANGE.
FOR LIVESTOCK WE HAVE INDICES
WHICH HELP US UNDERSTAND
COMPOUNDING E EFFECT OF
TEMPERATURE AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AND MOVING FROM NOT
EXPERIENCING STRESS TO A
SITUATION WHERE WE HAVE SUDDEN
DEATH EVENTS, AND WE'VE HAD A
NUMBER OF THESE FAIRLY HIGHLY
PUBLICIZED IN THE U.S. RECENTLY
AS WE'VE HAD HEAT WAVES GO
THROUGH FEED LOT PLAGUESS
CHANGES LEADING TO LOSS.
THINGS LIKE RESPIRATION
RESPONSES TO THERMAL TEMPERATURE
WILL BE -- OR CHANGE IN
RESPIRATORY RESPONSES WILL BE
DOUBLED WHEN YOU EXPOSE THEM TO
A RAPID CHANGE IN THERMAL
ENVIRONMENT COMPARED TO GRADUAL
CHANGE IN THERMAL ENVIRONMENT.
AS WE'RE EXPECTING TEMPERATURE
CHANGES AND INCREASING INCIDENTS
IN SEVERITY OF EXTREME EVENTS,
THIS IS A MAJOR CHALLENGE.
NOW, ONE OF THE ADAPTATION
MECHANISMS WE HAVE IS TO MOVE
ANIMALS TOWARD INTENSIVE INDOOR
PRODUCTION SYSTEMS.
BUT THERE IS CHALLENGES THERE
WITH THINGS LIKE CONCENTRATING
IN ONE PARTICULAR AREA, AND WE
HAVE A MASS BALANCE CHALLENGE IN
TERMS OF NITROGEN AND
PHOSPHOROUS PRODUCED IN MANURE
AND IN TERMS OF THINGS LIKE
METHANE PRODUCED FROM
FERMENTATION OF MANURE.
ON THE OPPOSITE SIDE WE HAVE
EXTENSIVE PRODUCTION SYSTEMS
WHERE WE HAVE LESS OF A MASS
BALANCE CHALLENGE WITH ANIMALS.
HOWEVER, WE HAVE SOME TRADEOFFS
THERE IN THAT ANIMALS, WE CAN'T
CONTROL AND MITIGATE THE
ENVIRONMENT IN EXTENSIVE
PRODUCTION SYSTEMS AND HAVE TO
RELY ON THE ANIMAL'S PHYSIOLOGY
WHICH AS WE SEE OCCASIONALLY
DOES FAIL TO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
MECHANISMS TO ENSURE EFFECTIVE
MITIGATION AND PREVENT REALLY
SEVERE HEAT STRESS THAT
EVENTUALLY LEADS TO DEATH.
ANIMALS ARE ALSO SENSITIVE TO
RAINFALL CHANGES, MOST IMPORTANT
IN EXTENSIVE PRODUCTION SYSTEMS,
ANIMALS ARE DEPENDENT ON WATER
AVAILABILITY AND RAINFALL.
96% OF WATER USED IN PRODUCTION
GLOBALLY IS GOING TO BE GREEN
WATER, VAST MAJORITY IS USED FOR
THINGS LIKE CROP AND FORAGE
PRODUCTION.
SO IT'S THE WATER REQUIREMENTS
FOR OUR FEED STUFF THAT DRIVES
MAJORITY OF THE WATER FOOTPRINT
OF LIVESTOCK.
VERY LITTLE OF THAT WATER IS
ASSOCIATED WITH ANIMALS DRINKING
WATER DIRECTLY AND DEPENDING ON
THE SYSTEM OCCASIONALLY HAVE
MORE NOTABLE USES OF WATER FOR
WHAT I'LL CALL MANAGEMENT.
ONE EXAMPLE IS WHAT YOU'RE
SEEING IN THE PHOTO HEREE WHERE
WE USE SPRINKLERS AS A STRATEGY
TO HELP DAIRY CATTLE IN THIS
INDICATION MAINTAIN AN
APPROPRIATE THERMAL ENVIRONMENT
ON PARTICULARLY HOT DAYS.
SO, AS WE EXPECT MORE CHALLENGES
WITH HEAT STRESS WE CAN ALSO
EXPECT A COMPOUNDING DEMAND FOR
INCREASED MANAGEMENT WATER AND
FOR INCREASED DRINKING WATER DUE
TO SHIFTS IN ANIMALS'
PHYSIOLOGY.
AGAIN THERE'S TRADEOFFS HERE
BETWEEN INTENSIVE AND EXTENSIVE
PRODUCTION SYSTEMS AND THEIR
DEMAND OR RELIANCE ON THINGS
LIKE PRECIPITATION.
WE THINK ABOUT THE BROADER
IMPACTS OF THESE FACTORS ON
PRODUCTIVITY AND PHYSIOLOGY HEAT
STRESS AND WATER SHORTAGE WILL
IMPAIR IMMUNE SYSTEM, AFFECT AT
ANIMAL BEHAVIOR, IMPAIR
DIGESTION, WITH IMPACT ON
PRODUCTIVITY AND ENVIRONMENTAL
IMPACT AND MANURE PRODUCTION.
THESE CHARTS HERE ARE FROM THIS
PAPER ESTIMATING A SEVERAL
BILLION DOLLAR IMPACT OF HEAT
STRESS ON RUMINANT LIVESTOCK,
THE AREAS WHERE WE EXPECT SEVERE
CHARGES, DARKER COLORED BROWN
AND RED, ARE HIGHLY CENTRALIZED
IN OUR DEVELOPING REGIONS.
SO WE ALSO NEED TO CONSIDER THE
REGIONAL SPECIFICITY OF THIS
SUSCEPTIBILITY OF LIVE STOCK TO
CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CHANGES.
WHEN WE THINK ABOUT SOME THINGS
LIKE PHYSICAL AND BIOLOGICAL
SYSTEMS AND HOW THEY IMPACT
ANIMALS I'VE HIGHLIGHTED A
COUPLE AREAS THAT BECOME
IMPORTANT, LIKE SOIL RUNOFF
CERTAINLY ARE CRITICAL, WHEN WE
THINK ABOUT THE HEALTH OF OUR
GRASSLANDS AND OUR GRAZING
SYSTEMS.
BUT AS OUR PREVIOUS SPEAKER
HIGHLIGHTED, ONE OF THE EMERGING
AREAS THAT WE'RE BEGINNING TO
UNDERSTAND AS POTENTIALLY HIGHLY
DAMAGING IS THE EXPANSION OF OUR
VECTOR-BORNE DISEASES.
SO THIS IS JUST A USE CASE OR A
CASE STUDY I SUPPOSE THAT WE'RE
EXPERIENCING RIGHT NOW IN MY
REGION OF THE COUNTRY, WHERE WE
HAVE AN INVASIVE SPECIES OF TICK
THAT HAS MIGRATED GLOBALLY, AND
THERE'S A COUPLE DIFFERENT
THEORIES ON POTENTIAL ROUTES OF
INTRODUCTION, THE UNITED STATES,
SHOWN ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE
SLIDE, BUT WHAT WE'RE SEEING ON
THE LEFT SIDE OF THE SLIDE IS
INCREASING NUMBERS OF REPORTS OF
THE DISEASE THAT THIS PARTICULAR
TICK IS RESPONSIBLE FOR.
AND THE CHALLENGE HERE IS THAT
MORTALITY RATES EVER ANIMALS
INFECTED RANGE FROM 5 TO 90%,
AND UNFORTUNATELY IN MANY CASES
WE'RE CLOSER TO THE UPPER END OF
THAT RANGE.
SO AS WE HAVE INCREASED DISEASE
VECTORS THAT ARE INTRODUCED INTO
NEW AREAS, WE HAVE TO THINK
ABOUT POTENTIAL IMPACT THAT HAS
ON OUR ANIMAL POPULATION BECAUSE
CERTAINLY WHEN WE HAVE 90%
MORTALITY THE ENVIRONMENTAL
IMPACT OF OUR PRODUCTION SYSTEM
SKYROCKETS PRETTY QUICKLY
RELATIVE TO THE AMOUNT OF FOOD
WE'RE ABLE TO SUCCESSFULLY
PRODUCE.
SO THESE TYPES OF CHALLENGES ARE
AN EMERGING AREA OF CONCERN WHEN
WE THINK ABOUT THIS FRAMEWORK.
I DID WANT TO DEVOTE A LITTLE
TIME TO DOTTED ARROW.
THAT BECOMES A PRETTY IMPORTANT
PART OF THE ANIMAL DISCUSSION.
IF WE LOOK AT THE EPA DATA, U.S.
ANIMAL AGRICULTURE BECOMES A
PRETTY IMPORTANT CONTRIBUTOR TO
AGRICULTURAL EMISSIONS.
SO WHEN WE LOOK AT THINGS LIKE
FERMENTATION, THE RED PORTION,
MANURE MANAGEMENT, THE PURPLE
PORTION OF THE BAR, LIVESTOCK
ACCOUNT FOR CLOSE TO HALF OF OUR
AGRICULTURAL EMISSIONS,
DEPENDING HOW YOU SLICE THE PIE
ABOUT AGRICULTURAL SOIL
MANAGEMENT, THE BLUE PORTION.
WHEN WE BREAK IT DOWN , I FOCUS
ON RUMINANT ANIMALS BECAUSE THEY
ARE THE MAJOR CONTRIBUTORS TO
DASHED LINE.
LIGHT TAN AND BLUE AREAS SHOW
BEEF AND DAIRY CATTLE, AND THEIR
CONTRIBUTION TO U.S. ANIMAL
AGRICULTURE EMISSIONS, AND ALL
THE WAY BACK FROM 1990 UP TO
2001 HERE WE CAN SEE THAT THEY
HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN THE MAJOR
CONTRIBUTORS.
MOST OF THAT IS IN THE FORM OF
ENTERIC METHANE.
TO THE QUESTION I ASKED A MINUTE
AGO, PART OF THE CHALLENGE IS
OFTENTIMES THE PROPOSED SOLUTION
THROUGH USE CONSUMPTION OF
ANIMAL PRODUCTS.
ONE OF THE ISSUES IN THE
AGRICULTURE INDUSTRY WE'RE
HIGHLY SEGMENTED.
THERE ARE INPUTS TO THESE
INDUSTRIES, A NUMBER OF
ECONOMICALLY DISTINCT OPERATIONS
THAT OWN ANIMALS THROUGHOUT THE
PRODUCTION PROCESS.
ANIMALS ARE BORN ON A DIFFERENT
OPERATION THAN THEY ARE GROWN,
AND THEY ARE GROWN ON A
DIFFERENT OPERATION THAN THEY
ARE FINISHED.
AND THEN THEY ARE SOLD TYPICALLY
TO A PACKING OR PROCESSING
PLANT, PERHAPS SOLD AGAIN TO A
FURTHER PROCESSOR, SOLD AGAIN TO
A WHOLESALER, SOLD AGAIN TO A
SUPERMARKET, SOLD AGAIN PERHAPS
TO A RESTAURANT OR FOOD
SUPPLIER.
SO, TRYING TO CONNECT THE DOTS
BETWEEN A PURCHASING CHOICE AND
BACK TO OFTENTIMES THE AREA
WHERE WE NEED TO MAKE THE
DECISIONS WHICH IS WHEN WE'RE
BREEDING ANIMALS, BECOMES
SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING.
THIS IS ALSO A CHALLENGE WE HAVE
WHEN THINKING ABOUT USING LABELS
OR INCENTIVE PROGRAMS TO TRY AND
GET PAYMENTS BACK TO THE FARM
LEVEL TO SUPPORT ADOPTION OF
SUSTAINABILITY OR GREENHOUSE GAS
MITIGATING TECHNOLOGIES.
CONSIDERING THIS SEGMENTATION OF
THE INDUSTRY BECOMES REALLY
IMPORTANT.
I WANTED TO HIGHLIGHT WORK MAYBE
ADDRESSING THE ISSUE OF
OVERGLOBALIZATION.
THIS IS WORK THAT LUSK AND
COLLEAGUES DID LAST YEAR
EXPLORING THE IMPACT OF
PLANT-BASED MEAT ALTERNATIVES ON
CATTLE INVENTORY.
WHAT THEY FOUND IS A 10%
INCREASE IN DEMANDS FOR THESE
PLANT-BASED MEAT ALTERNATIVES
ACTUALLY CHANGES CATTLE SUPPLIES
BY LESS THAN -- WELL, LESS THAN
HALF A PERCENT, .15%, REALLY NOT
VERY SUBSTANTIAL.
THEY SEE A DECREASE IN ANIMAL
PRODUCER WELFARE, INCREASE IN
CONSUMER WELFARE, THE NEXT SHIFT
DRIVING THESE RESPONSES TO THIS
INCREASE IN PLANT-BASED MEAT
ALTERNATIVES IS REDUCED IMPORT
OF MEAT AND INCREASED EXPORT.
SO, ONE OF THE CHALLENGES THAT
WE HAVE WITH THESE TYPES OF
GLOBAL ECONOMIES IS A SHIFT IN
DEMAND ISN'T ALWAYS NECESSARILY
GUARANTEED TO SHIFT PRODUCTION
PATTERNS, WHEN WE JUST HAVE THE
OPPORTUNITY TO INCREASE EXPORTS.
NOW, THEY ALSO CONCLUDED THIS
HAD A PRETTY INTERESTING IMPACT
ON GLOBAL EMISSIONS, I THINK IT
WAS CLOSE TO A 2% REDUCTION IN
GLOBAL EMISSIONS, BUT THAT'S DUE
TO THE FACT THAT U.S. CATTLE
PRODUCTION IS SUBSTANTIALLY MORE
EFFICIENT THAN IN OTHER AREAS OF
THE WORLD SO AS YOU SUPPLANT
LOCAL PRODUCTION SYSTEMS THAT
ARE NOT AS PRODUCTIVE YOU SEE A
REDUCTION IN EMISSIONS.
BUT THERE'S A REALLY IMPORTANT
SOCIAL CHALLENGE THERE WHEN WE
START TO TALK ABOUT FOOD
IMPERIALISM AND NEED FOR
INDIVIDUAL COUNTRIES TO HAVE
SOME DEGREE OF FOOD SOVEREIGNTY,
ALSO PART OF THE GLOBALIZATION
ISSUE.
ONE LAST PIECE OF DATA I'LL
HIGHLIGHT, WE HAVE TREMENDOUS
VARIABILITY IN THE EMISSIONS
INTENSITIES OF ANIMAL PRODUCTS.
AND SO THIS IS AN AREA WHERE
THERE'S A LOT OF OPPORTUNITY.
THESE ARE SOME FAO DATA
HIGHLIGHTING THE 90% RANGE
AROUND PRODUCTION, 50% RANGE
AROUND PRODUCTION, THE MEAN
GLOBALLY.
ON THE RIGHT WHAT WOULD HAPPEN
IN A REGION IF PRODUCERS APPLIED
PRACTICES OF THE LOWEST TENTH
PERCENTILE MAINTAINING CONSTANT
OUTPUT LOOK LIKE IT'S MOST
ENVIRONMENTALLY EFFICIENT FARM
IN THE AREA AND WHAT THEY ARE
SHOWING VISUALLY WHERE THESE
CUTOUTS OF THE CLOUDS IS THE NEW
FOOTPRINT OF PRODUCTION UNDER
THOSE TYPES OF SCENARIOS.
SO, ON FARMING SYSTEMS,
LIVESTOCK SYSTEM WE HAVE A
NUMBER OF CHOICE HOUSE WE ADAPT
TO CLIMATE CHANGE AND HOW WE
ATTEMPT TO MITIGATE
ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS.
THOSE INCLUDE THINGS LIKE
DEPOPULATING ANIMALS, THAT'S
ALWAYS AN OPTION.
BUT DOING SO HAS SOCIAL
ACCEPTABILITY CHALLENGES, AND
IMPLICATIONS FOR OUR BROADER
ECOSYSTEM.
WE ALSO HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO
CHANGE HOUSING TO SHIFT TO
INTENSIVE SYSTEMS BUT THERE'S
TRADEOFFS THAT WE'VE TALKED
ABOUT.
GENETICS IS A PROMISING
STRATEGY, MAIN DRIVER OF
HISTORICAL IMPACT SHIFTS.
IT'S CRITICAL FOR ADAPTATION TO
CLIMATE ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE BUT
IT DOES TAKE TIME AND DEPENDS ON
ACCURATE PHENOTYPING WHICH CAN
BE A CHALLENGE FOR SOME ANIMALS.
WE ALSO HAVE NUTRITIONAL
INTERVENTIONS WHICH CAN AFFECT
PRETTY RAPID SHIFTS IN
ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT.
THEY ARE CRITICAL FOR ADAPTION
TO CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CHANGE BUT RELATIVE TO THINGS
LIKE THE TYPE OF LONG-TERM
IMPACTS WE CAN ACHIEVE WITH
GENETICS OR SHORT-TERM IMPACT
WITH TECHNOLOGY, THE IMPACT OF
NUTRITION TENDS TO BE SOMEWHAT
MARGINAL AND ECONOMICAL
INTENSIVE.
WE CAN SHIFT REPRODUCE PATTERNS,
ACHIEVING RAPID CHANGES IN THE
ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT OF OUR
PRODUCTION SYSTEM, BUT
TECHNOLOGY IS NECESSARY TO
EFFECT THOSE CHANGE, NOT ALWAYS
SOCIALLY ACCEPTABLE.
ANT SHIFTING REPRODUCTION DOES
VERY LITTLE TO SUPPORT
ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE.
FINALLY WE HAVE A WHOLE BOAT OF
OPPORTUNITIES THAT I PUT UNDER
THE BROAD CATEGORY OF PRODUCTION
ENHANCING TECHNOLOGIES.
THESE CAN AFFECT VERY RAPID
SHIFTS IN ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS,
CAN EITHER IMPROVE OR REDUCE
ADAPTABILITY TO CLIMATE AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE DEPENDING
ON TECHNOLOGY BUT HISTORICALLY
WE'VE SEEN A LOT OF DISTRUST AND
POOR SOCIAL ACCEPTABILITY AROUND
THE USE OF TECHNOLOGIES IN LIVE
STOCK PRODUCTION.
THESE ARE SOME OPPORTUNITIES,
LIMITATIONS WE THOUGHT OF IN THE
CONTEXT OF THIS SYSTEM AND A
LITTLE BIT ABOUT THAT RECIPROCAL
NATURE OF THE SYSTEM.
AT THIS POINT I'LL GO AHEAD AND
TRANSITION OVER TO OUR NEXT
SPEAKER.
THIS WILL BE KATHERINE FIORELLA
FROM CORNELL ADDRESSING AQUATIC
ELEMENTS OF THESE TYPE OF
SYSTEMS.
>> HI, EVERYONE.
THANK YOU FOR THE WONDERFUL
PRESENTATIONS TODAY.
I'LL GET MY SCREEN SHARED.
THIS IS ENLIGHTENING AND SUPER
USEFUL FOR OUR GROUP.
I'M GOING TO TALK ABOUT CLIMATE
AND ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGES IN
AQUATIC CONTEXT.
IN MY TALK I'M GOING TO PROVIDE
CONTEXT FOR CURRENT HARVEST OF
AQUATIC FOODS FROM WILD
FISHERIES AND AQUACULTURE AND
DISCUSS CLIMATE CHANGES
AFFECTING THE SYSTEMS.
SO FOCUSING ON AQUATIC FOODS, WE
TALKED ABOUT FISH BUT THERE'S
BEEN A REAL EFFORT TO BROADEN
TERMINOLOGY TO THINK ABOUT NOT
JUST FISH THAT DOMINATE THE
SECTOR BUT DIFFERENT TIMES OF
AQUATIC FOODS, MOLLUSKS,
BIVALVES
SNAILS, FROGS, THE LIKE.
THINKING BROADLY ABOUT THE
SYSTEM ENCOMPASSING DIFFERENT
FOODS THAT COME FROM THESE
SYSTEMS.
THE HARVEST OF WILD AQUATIC
FOODS IS DOMINATED BY SMALL
SCALE SECTOR, 100 MILLION PEOPLE
INTRODUCE TWO-THIRDS, THOSE ARE
OVERWHELMINGLY IN THE GLOBAL
SOUTH, ABOUT 90% OF THEM, THEY
ARE FISHING ON SMALL VESSELS
LIKE HERE ON LAKE VICTORIA.
FOR EXAMPLE, THEY HARVEST 8% OF
THE WORLD'S GLOBAL INLAND FISH.
WE HAVE AN IMAGE OF MARINE
INDUSTRIAL FISHING, BUT THE
SMALL SCALE SECTOR IS
SUBSTANTIAL.
FISHING TAKES PLACE IN OUR
GLOBAL OCEANS BUT ALSO IN LAKES,
RIVERS, COASTLINES IN ADDITION
TO HIGH SEAS.
THE HARVEST OF FISH PROVIDES
FOOD LOCALLY BUT REACHES FAR
AFIELD, AMONG THE MOST WIDELY
TRADED.
WE THINK ABOUT DIET IMPLICATIONS
IT'S NOT ALL STAYING LOCALLY OF
COURSE.
THIS GRAPH SHOWS AQUATIC FOOD
CONSUMPTION OVER TIME, THE GRAY
LINE HERE.
SHIFTS HAPPENING ALONG
CONSUMPTION OF OTHERS.
SIMILARLY TO SEVERAL OTHER
ANIMAL SOURCE FOODS AQUATIC FOOD
CONSUMPTION IS GROWING RAPIDLY.
AND, AGAIN, AS WITH OTHER ANIMAL
SOURCE FOODS AROUND THE WORLD
THERE ARE BIG DISPARITIES.
AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA
CONSUMING FAR LESS THAN GLOBAL
AVERAGE, ASIA, OCEANIA MUCH
LARGER CONSUMERS.
COLORS SHOW AQUATIC FOODS BEING
CONSUMED.
FOR EXAMPLE, SOME OF THE BIG
TRADEOFFS HAPPENING TO NOTICE
BETWEEN FRESH WATER FISH, YELLOW
PART OF THE BAR, AND THE GREEN
PART, DEMERSAL FISH.
IN ASIA THE SHARE OF FRESH WATER
FISH IS SUBSTANTIAL, AND THAT IS
THINGS LIKE YOUR TILAPIA,
CATFISH, CARP, COMPARED TO
DERMS, COD, HALIBUT.
LINKED TO ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGES
AND CLIMATE IMPACT, PART OF THE
POINT IS DIVERSITY REALLY TIES
INTO THE DIFFERENT TYPES OF WAYS
THESE FOOD SYSTEMS WILL BE
IMPACTED.
AND SO A MIDDLE OF THE GROWTH,
GLOBAL REPORTS INCREASINGLY
SUGGESTING WE SHOULD BE EATING
EVEN MORE FISH.
FISH IS BOTH A PARTICULARLY
SUSTAINABLE FOOD SOURCE AND
PARTICULARLY NUTRITIOUS ONE, AND
A LOT OF THESE ANALYSES IN THIS
GRAPH FROM THE EAT-LANCET REPORT
SHOWS CONTRIBUTION, IN MOST
REGIONS BELOW WHAT IS OPTIMAL,
GLOBAL SPECTRUM FOR CONSUMPTION
OF MORE FISH.
WHERE WILL THAT COME FROM?
FILLING THAT GAP IS GOING TO
REQUIRE A LOT MORE PRODUCTION.
FISH WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO BE
HARVESTED IN VERY LARGE
QUANTITIES FROM WILD FISHERIES
WHICH YOU SEE IN BLUE BUT WILL
ALSO NEED TO COME FROM
AQUACULTURE IN YELLOW, NOW
COMPRISES HALF OF GLOBAL FISH
PRODUCED.
IT'S REALLY RAPIDLY EXPANDING AS
A SHARE OF PRODUCTION.
SO IT'S THE FASTEST GROWING FOOD
SYSTEM SEGMENT TODAY, 7.5% PER
CAPITA GROWTH, SUPPLY INCREASED
FROM 9 KILOGRAMS TO 20.5 IN
2018.
SO THE CONTRAST HERE TO WILD
FISH PRODUCTION, BASICALLY SET
FOR THE LAST 30 YEARS, WE'RE
HARVESTING AT CAPACITY, DOING A
GOOD JOB OF REACHING THAT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINABLE YIELD BUT
ALSO MEANS THERE'S NOT MUCH ROOM
FOR GROWTH IN PRODUCTION.
ANY DOWN TURNS WILL IMPACT
AQUATIC FOOD ACCESS.
PRODUCTION GROWTH IS GOING TO
COME AND IS COMING FROM
AQUACULTURE, THE LARGE MAJORITY
OF PRODUCTION IS IN ASIA
PARTICULARLY CHINA BUT ALSO
INDIA, INDONESIA, VIETNAM,
BANGLADESH, CAMBODIA.
AQUACULTURE PRODUCTION PRIMARILY
IS SERVING DOMESTIC URBAN
MARKETS AT THE MOMENT.
62% IS FRESHWATER PRODUCTION,
AND 4% -- SORRY, FOUR SPECIES
MAKE UP A THIRD OF PRODUCTION.
REALLY BROADLY SPEAKING FISH
DIVERSITY IS TREMENDOUS.
THERE ARE MANY, MANY THOUSANDS
OF FISH SPECIES DESCRIBED.
WHEN WE LEAK AT CONSUMPTION IN
THE U.S., THIS IS DATA FROM
NHANES, 17 FISH SPECIES, 8
SHELLFISH SPECIES ARE THE U.S.
SPECTRUM OF CONSUMPTION RATE.
SO REALLY DIFFERENT LEVELS OF
DIVERSITY AROUND THE WORLD BUT
NONETHELESS NUMBERS THAT EXCEED
A LOT OF OTHER ANIMALS OR FOODS
WE CONSUME IN TERMS OF DIVERSITY
WHICH COMPLICATES THE
ENVIRONMENTAL PICTURE.
SO AROUND THE WORLD PEOPLE
EATING EVEN A MUCH WIDER
DIVERSITY OF FISH AVAILABLE IN
THE ECOSYSTEMS.
THIS IS AMALGAMATION BY MEN AND
WOMEN FROM FISHING HOUSEHOLDS IN
CANDLING BOD -- CAMBODIA THAT
SHOWS DIFFERENCE.
THEY ARE POTENTIALLY USING
DIFFERENT GEARS, DIFFERENT
PEOPLE INVOLVED IN THE HARVEST
OF THESE SPECIES, SUGGESTING A
LOT OF SPECIES-SPECIFIC
DIFFERENCES.
FOR EXAMPLE, THERE'S A LOT OF
VARIATION IN THERMAL TOLERANCE,
AFFECTED
AFFECT -- AFFECTED BROADLY
DIFFERENTLY.
BEFORE WE LOOK AT CLIMATE
ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE IMPACT ON
AQUATIC FOOD PRODUCTION I WANT
TO UNDERLINE PRODUCTION SYSTEM
HAS BROAD ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS,
MOST OF THE PUSH FOR AQUATIC
FOODS ARISES FROM LOW GREENHOUSE
GAS EMISSION, LAND USE PRESSURE,
STACKING UP FAVORABLY BUT THERE
ARE LOTS OF OTHER DIMENSIONS WE
MIGHT BE INTERESTED IN
ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT OF AQUATIC
FOOD.
BLUE, CAPTURE OR WILD, AND
AQUACULTURE IN GREEN.
ALSO ESPECIALLY IN AQUACULTURE
OVERLAP WITH AGRICULTURE MORE
BROADLY AS WELL.
I THINK HAVE THE IMPACT ON
AQUATIC FOODS I HIGHLIGHTED HERE
TOUCH MANY THINGS, MAYBE NOT
EXACTLY ALL BUT REALLY A
CROSS-SECTION OF THESE
DIMENSIONS AS WELL.
I'LL DISCUSS THEM A LITTLE BIT
FURTHER.
A REALLY BIG ONE IS IMPACT OF
RISING TEMPERATURES.
RESEARCH IS SHOWING EFFECT OF
WARMING ON FISH AVAILABILITY SO
FREE ET AL. EXAMINED CHANGES
SINCE 1930 DRIVEN BY TEMPERATURE
ALREADY.
DRIVING SHIFTS IN OCEAN
TEMPERATURE AS WELL AS SALINITY
AND ACIDITY THAT IMPACT HABITAT
SUITABILITY.
THE GRAPH HERE, 19 NEGATIVELY
AFFECTED, 19 TOX POSITIVELY
INFLUENCED.
POSITIVE INFLUENCE WE SEE ARE
DUE TO INCREASES IN NET PRIMARY
PRODUCTIVITY.
AND FOR THE AGGREGATE SUGGESTING
WARMING OCEAN TEMPERATURES HAVE
ALREADY DRIVEN A 4.1% REDUCTION
IN MAXIMUM SUSTAINABLE YIELD.
THERE'S IMPORTANT DISPARITIES
ACROSS SETTINGS THOUGH.
MODELS ARE COMBINING HABITAT
SUITABILITY BASED ON TEMPERATURE
CONDITIONS WITH CHANGES IN NET
PRIMARY PRODUCTIVITY TO PROJECT
IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE INTO
THE FUTURE.
AND THEY ALSO PROJECT
SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES ON FISH
AVAILABILITY, THIS IS JUST
LOOKING AT MARINE SPECIES.
WARMER COLORS PROJECTED TO
EXPERIENCE INCREASING DECLINES,
SUGGESTING 6% REDUCTION AND
RESEARCH ON NUTRITIONAL IMPACT
SUGGESTS 10% OF THE POPULATION
COULD BE AT RISK OF NUTRITIONAL
DEFICIENCIES AS A RESULT.
WE'RE THINKING OF MICRONUTRIENT
AND FATTY ACID DEFICIENCY, NOT
PROTEIN.
PROTEIN IS A FACTOR AS WELL.
THESE ARE PROJECTIONS,
SUBSTANTIAL CONSEQUENCES FOR
GLOBAL FISH PRODUCTION,
ESPECIALLY IN CONTEXT OF THE
FACT WE WOULD LIKE IT TO
INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AND
THINKING ABOUT INTERACTIONS
ACROSS FOOD SYSTEMS.
THIS MAP SHOWS HAZARDS SCORES
FOR COMBINED IMPACTS OF CLIMATE
CHANGE ON MARINE AND FRESH WATER
WILD FISHERIES AND AQUACULTURE
BY 2050, UNDER HIGH EMISSION
CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO.
THEY DID A NICE JOB OF PULLING
TOGETHER IMPACTS.
THE IMPACTS ARE FELT EVERYWHERE.
BUT THERE'S ALSO A BIT OF DOUBLE
JEOPARDY, GREATER DEPENDENCE IN
THE TROPICS ON AQUATIC FOODS FOR
FOOD AND LIVELY HOODS COINCIDES
WITH RISK OF HAZARDS IN THE
TROPICS.
WITH WARMING GREATEST ON
CONTINENTAL LAND MASSES COMPARED
TO OCEANS MEANING THAT THERE
WILL BE ESPECIALLY LARGE IMPACTS
ON INLAND AND IN SHORE
FISHERIES, BUT ACROSS THE BOARD
AND I THINK ONGOING THEME OF
THIS TALK IS THE MECHANISMS OF
IMPACT DIFFER WIDELY.
AND BY SECTOR.
FOR EXAMPLE, PILAGIC FISHERIES
HAVE TO CONTENT WITH CHANGES,
BIVALVE, INLAND WITH TIMING, BED
AQUACULTURE INTERACTING WITH
TERRESTRIAL CROP LOSS AND FEED
AVAILABILITY AS WELL.
I'M GOING TO SHOW A PICTURE OF
THE CLIMATE CHANGE AND
FRESHWATER FISHERIES IMPACTS
WE'RE THINKING ABOUT IN THE
TONLE SAP REGION.
THIS WATER BODY LEER IS THETON
SAP LAKE IN CAMBODIA, THIS IS
THE MEKENG RIVER.
THIS SHOWS THE FLOOD PULSE OF
THE TONLE SAP LAKE ANNUALLY.
AND THIS UNDERLINES THE SCALE
FRESH WATER DRIVES, THIS
INCREASE IS DRIVEN BY RAIN WATER
AND WATER FROM THE MEKONG RIVER,
WITH IMPLICATIONS OF CHANGING
WATER AVAILABILITY HERE.
FRESH WATERS ARE SHALLOWER,
HYDROLOGICALLY DISTINCT, HIGHLY
INFLUENCED BY SEASONAL SHIFTS,
EVAPORATION.
FISH ARE STUCK IN THE WATER BODY
THEY ARE IN.
IF THERE'S LESS WATER THAT
ENTERS THE SYSTEM ENTIRELY, THE
ENTIRE PRODUCTION SYSTEM HINGES
ON THE HABITAT THAT BECOMES
AVAILABLE IN THIS PULSE, AND
LIKEWISE REALLY EXTREME
CONSEQUENCES COULD MEAN THAT
THIS PULSE DOESN'T HAPPEN IN
NEARLY THE SAME WAY.
AND THE HISTORY OF THE FISH IS
INTEGRATED WITH THE SYSTEM.
THE CLIMATE CHANGE HAS POTENTIAL
HERE IN EXTREME CASES TO JUST
FUNDAMENTALLY SHIFT SYSTEMS
ENTIRELY, IN WAYS THAT HAVE BEEN
REALLY HARD FOR SCIENTISTS TO
PREDICT WHAT WILL HAPPEN.
AND SO ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGES
PROJECTED TO IMPACT AQUATIC FOOD
PRODUCTION, LOTS OF POTENTIAL
INDIRECT IMPACTS TO TEMPERATURE
CHANGES, CLIMATE, ENVIRONMENTAL
IMPACTS THAT INTERACT HERE.
SO, LONGSTANDING CHALLENGES IN A
LOT OF SYSTEMS ARE DUE TO
INVASIVE SPECIES, DISEASE,
HABITAT LOSS, DEGRADATION,
BIODIVERSITY LOSS INTERACTING
WITH CLIMATE CHANGE AS WELL.
FOR EXAMPLE, HABITATS LIKE
MANGROVES THAT BUFFER COASTLINES
AND POTENTIALLY ALSO CORAL REEF
HABITATS WILL BE AN INTERACTIVE
EFFECT ON PRODUCTION IN SOME
CORAL SYSTEMS IF WE'RE SEEING
BIODIVERSITY LOSS ALONGSIDE
CLIMATE CHANGE.
ANOTHER EXAMPLE, POLLUTION TO
AQUATIC SYSTEMS IS POTENTIALLY
EXACERBATED BY INTERACTING WITH
CLIMATES CHANGE.
POLLUTION AROUND LAKE VICTORIA
WHERE THIS PICTURE IS TAKEN,
CONTRIBUTE TO THE EXPANSION OF
HARMFUL ALGAL BLOOMS,
INTENSIFYING AROUND THE WORLD.
TEMPERATURE CHANGES ARE MAKING
THESE WORSE BUT THERE ARE
FEEDBACKS HERE TO OTHER
AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS AND THE
BROADER FOOD SYSTEM.
SO THE BLOOMS NOT ONLY
POTENTIALLY HAVING AN IMPACT ON
DRINKING WATER, IRRIGATION
WATER, AND WATER THAT MIGHT BE
USED WITH LIVE STOCK IN VARIOUS
WAYS, BUT ALSO THE CONTAMINANTS
THEY ARE PRODUCING ACCUMULATING
IN FISH.
SO TRYING TO THINK ABOUT SORT OF
THESE INTERACTIONS WITH OTHER
ASPECTS OF THE FOOD SYSTEM AND
DIMENSIONS OF FOOD SAFETY HERE.
MERCURY METHYLATION LIKELY TO BE
IMPACTED BY CLIMATE CHANGE AS
WELL.
THE OTHER BIG ONE HERE TO
MENTION IS COMPETING DEMANDS FOR
FRESH WATER.
ENERGY PRODUCTION, A TREMENDOUS
ONE, AS WE SEE CLIMATE SHIFTS,
LIKE DAMS THAT ARE POTENTIALLY
HAVING A HUGE IMPACT ON THE
MEKONG RIVER, WHETHER FLOWS
REACH THE CAMBODIAN ECOSYSTEM
LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY CLIMATE
CHANGE, NEED FOR IRRIGATION
WATER AS WELL.
ON THE AQUACULTURE SIDE THIS IS
AN AREA WHERE THERE'S
POTENTIALLY A LOT OF RESIDENCE
WITH OTHER AGRICULTURE SYSTEMS
BUT BECAUSE IT'S NEW AND -- NOT
NEW BUT GROWING VERY FAST
THERE'S ALSO A LOT OF MOVEMENT
HERE.
SO, AQUACULTURE ENCOMPASSES A
CONTINUUM OF PRODUCTION, THERE'S
A RANGE OF PRACTICES FROM DOING
THINGS LIKE STOCKING RICE FIELD
FISHERIES TO INTENSIVE
AQUACULTURE SYSTEMS
RECIRCULATING USING VERY LITTLE
WATER TO PRODUCE FISH RELATIVE
TO OTHER SYSTEMS BY REAR
CIRCULATE -- RECIRCULATING AND
CLEANING PROCESS.
MORE CONTROLLED FLEXIBLE CITING
PROVIDES INSULATION YET THEY
HAVE INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENTS
ESPECIALLY ALONG COASTLINES
VULNERABLE TO EXTREME WATER AND
LOTS OF INNOVATION IN GENERAL.
PARTICULARLY AROUND THE FEED.
AT THE MOMENT THERE'S
SUBSTANTIAL DEPENDENCE ON WILD
FISHERIES, ANOTHER POINT
THINKING ABOUT INTERACTION, SO
IT'S TEMPTING TO THINK OF
AQUACULTURE AS A SOLUTION FOR
CHALLENGES WILD FISHERIES WILL
FACE BUT THEY ARE INTERTWINED.
I'LL HIGHLIGHT ONE LAST POINT,
THAT WHEN WE BRING PEOPLE INTO
THE EQUATION, FISH CATCH IS A
FUNCTION OF WHAT'S GOING ON WITH
THE FISH POPULATION BUT WHAT
PEOPLE ARE DOING.
ARE THEY GOING AFTER FISH, ARE
THEY -- HOW MUCH TIME ARE THEY
SPENDING, AND WHAT WE FOUND IN
CAMBODIA, ESPECIALLY THE
ALTERNATIVE FACTORS AS
TEMPERATURES RISE HAD A BIG
IMPACT.
ESPECIALLY FOR DIVERSIFIED HOUSE
HOLDS DOING LOTS OF THINGS
FISHING MILD BE -- MIGHT BE ONE
BUT LIKELY FARMING TOO.
CLIMATE CHANGES ARE GOING TO
AFFECT THEIR WHOLE PORTFOLIO OF
LIVELIHOODS AT ONCE.
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION.
I'M GOING TO PASS TO LEW ZISKA
TO TAKE US THROUGH THE CROP
SYSTEMS AS WELL.
>> THANK YOU, KATIE.
I WANT TO DO IT FROM CROP
SYSTEMS PERSPECTIVE TO CONTINUE
THIS SORT OF DIFFERENT SYSTEMS
APPROACH THAT WE'VE DONE SO FAR.
SPECIFICALLY, LOOKING AT IT FROM
NOT ONLY A CLIMATE PERSPECTIVE
BUT ALSO FROM A ROLE OF CARBON
DIOXIDE PLAYS IN FOOD SYSTEMS IN
REGARD TO NUTRITION.
SO WE ALL RECOGNIZE THAT THE
RESOURCES PLANTS NEED IN ORDER
TO GROW, KEEP IN MIND THAT ONE
OF THESE RESOURCES, CARBON
DIOXIDE, LAST INCREASED BY 30%
ALREADY.
LIKELY TO INCREASE ANOTHER 50%
IN THE NEAR TERM.
WHEN YOU LOOK AT THAT INCREASE
AS IN ANY PLANT SYSTEM, WHETHER
MANAGED OR UNMANAGED, THERE'S
GOING TO BE A DIFFERENTIAL
RESPONSE TO IT.
THIS PICTURE IS ACTUALLY NOT A
LANDING SITE FOR UFOs.
BUT WHAT IT IS IS A FREE AIR CO2
ENRICHMENT SITE.
THESE ARE LOB LOLLY PINE GROWING
IN THE CENTER OF THE DUKE
FOREST.
YOU HAVE CO2 COMING IN, ALL THE
BELLS AND WHISTLES CONTROLLING
CO2 WHEN THE WIND CHANGES.
WHEN I INCREASE CO2 IN HERE, IT
ISN'T JUST THE PINES THAT ARE
GOING TO RESPOND.
IT WAS THIS SPECIES THAT SHOWED
GREATEST RELATIVE RESPONSE TO
THE CHANGE IN IN CARBON DIOXID.
SOME OF YOU ARE SPECIAL
EXPERIENCE WITH THIS VINE,
POISON IVY.
WHEN WE LOOK AT THIS IN A LARGER
CONTEXT WITH RESPECT TO FOOD, WE
RECOGNIZE THE ISSUE.
IN EAST AFRICA A PURPOSE DIE --
A PERSON DIES OF HUNGER EVERY 30
SECONDS, RISING EVEN PRIOR TO
THE PANDEMIC, THERE ARE PLACES
IN EAST AFRICA SEVERE FOOD
WARNING.
WHEN IT'S TIME TO LOOK AT FOOD
SECURITY AND CARBON DIOXIDE,
THERE ARE ASPECTS, WATER,
TEMPERATURE, ENERGY, EXTREME
ENVIRONMENTS.
THE BIOTIC ASPECT, DIFFERENT
PESTS.
I WON'T HAVE TIME TO FOCUS ON
THOSE.
I'LL EMPHASIZE WHEAT ISSUES.
AND QUALITY AND SAFETY, THEY
DON'T GET ENOUGH ATTENTION.
A LITTLE BIT OF TALK LOOKING AT
DISTRIBUTION IN TERMS OF EXTREME
EVENTS.
SO, WHEN IT COMES TIME TO LOOK
AT IRRIGATION WE RECOGNIZE THAT
70% OF THE WATER THAT WE
CURRENTLY USE IN PUBLIC SYSTEMS
GOES TO AG.
22% IS INDUSTRIAL.
8% IS MUNICIPAL.
BUT THAT REALLY MEANS 80% OF ALL
THE IRRIGATION NOT IRRIGATED
RELIES ON RAIN FED AND PATTERNS
AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE
PROBLEMATIC AT THE MOMENT.
AND THEN FOR THE 20% OF LAND
THAT IS IRRIGATED, ABOUT 75% IS
FLOOD IRRIGATED, ABOUT 20% IS
SPRINKLERS, ONLY A VERY SMALL
PERCENT IS USED IN
MICROIRRIGATION, OR SURFACE DRIP
OR VARIED DRIP.
WHEN YOU LOOK AT CLIMATE AND
WATER AVAILABILITY, EXTREME
RAINFALL IS OCCURRING OVER THE
CONTIGUOUS U.S. THAT'S BEEN
DOCUMENTED.
WE HAVE AREAS THAT ARE BECOMING
DRYER PARTICULARLY THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES THAT ARE NOT
SEEING NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
AND THE END RESULT IS THAT MANY
RIVERS THAT WE CONSIDER SORT OF
PART AND PARCEL OF THE COUNTRY
SUCH AS THE MISSISSIPPI ARE
DRYING UP TO THE POINT WHERE
BARGE TRAFFIC IS ACTUALLY BEING
AFFECTED.
THIS OCCURRED, THIS IS FROM
2022, BUT BACK IN 2012 THERE WAS
SIMILAR EFFECTS OF DROUGHT ON
THE MISSISSIPPI.
AND THIS IS THE COLORADO.
BASICALLY NOW I THINK FOUR OUT
OF FIVE YEARS IT DOESN'T FLOW TO
THE OCEAN, ALL THE WATER IS
TAKEN OUT BEFORE IT GETS THERE.
THAT ISSUE WITH RESPECT TO WATER
IS VERY IMPORTANT IN TERMS OF
CROP SYSTEMS.
WE LOOK AT TEMPERATURE AND
FLORAL STABILITY THERE'S ANOTHER
ISSUE THAT IS DIFFERENT ORGANS
OF THE PLANT RESPOND TO
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIALLY.
PARTICULAR AREA IS THE FLOWERING
ASPECT, POLLEN CAN BECOME
STERILE AT LOW TEMPERATURES,
EVEN IF THE PLANT LOOKS GREEN
FLOWERS ARE AFFECTED IN SUCH A
WAY THERE'S NO SEED SET.
YOU CAN SEE OVER HERE LOOKING AT
SOMETHING LIKE RICE OR PEANUT, A
ONCE THE TEMPERATURE GOES UP A
COUPLE DEGREES YOU'LL SEE A
LARGE DROP-OFF IN TERMS OF SEED
SET AND JUST TO GIVE SOME SEM
PICTURES OF WHAT POLLEN LOOKS
LIKE IF TEMPERATURE IS EXCEEDED.
IN TERMS OF ENERGY, ENERGY IS
NECESSARY TO PROVIDE AMOUNTS OF
NITROGEN NECESSARY FOR THINGS
LIKE CORN, IT'S PROVIDED BY A
PROCESS THAT IN TURN IS RELATED
TO ENERGY WHEN YOU STOP LOOKING
AT THE FOOD INDEX CRISIS, WHAT
HAPPENED TO CRUDE OIL PRICES.
ENERGY NEEDED TO PRODUCE
NITROGEN IS VERY MUCH TIED INTO
THAT.
WHEN YOU LOOK AT RECENT CHANGES,
PARTICULARLY UKRAINIAN WAR, THAT
HAS CAUSED INCREASE FERTILIZER
TO SKYROCKET IN PART BECAUSE
RUSSIA, A MAJOR SOURCE OF CHEAP
ENERGY, AND ALSO MAJOR SOURCE OF
FERTILIZER NECESSARY.
SO THOSE ARE SOME OF THE ISSUES
RELATED TO ENERGY, CLIMATE
EXTREMES ARE ALSO IMPORTANT.
WHEN YOU LOOK AT WHERE
MCDONALD'S GETS ITS FRIES,
POTATOES THAT ARE GROWN THERE,
THE AMOUNTS OF WHAT HAPPENS
THERE IS BASED ON A LIMITED SET
OF GENETICS FOR POTATO, THE TYPE
TO MAKE FRIES.
LIMITING GENETIC VARIABILITY OF
THOSE POTATOES WHEN THE CLIMATE
CHANGES YOU'RE GOING TO NOT HAVE
THE GENETIC VERSATILITY
NECESSARY TO ADAPT.
WHEN YOU LOOK AT POTATO
PRODUCTION IN THE UNITED STATES
IT'S STARTING TO GO DOWN.
MONO CULTURES DON'T HAVE
SUFFICIENT GENETIC DIVERSITY TO
ADAPT TO EXTREMES.
THIS IS SIMILAR, KANSAS WHEAT
PRODUCTION.
THIS IS BECOMING MORE ENDEMIC.
YOU CAN TYPE IN PARTICULAR
COMMODITY FOR A COUNTRY, APPLES
FOR WASHINGTON, COTTON FOR
TEXAS, WHATEVER, YOU'LL SEE
SIMILAR TYPE ARRANGEMENT.
YOU SEE THAT THERE'S A LOT OF
UPS AND DOWNS REFLECTING CHANGES
IN CLIMATE AND LACK OF GENETIC
DIVERSITY.
IN TERMS OF BIOTIC LIMITATIONS,
WEEDS, WITHIN THE U.S. 10% LOSS
OF PRODUCTION ASSOCIATED WITH
WEEDS, EVEN WITH HERBICIDE
APPLICATION THAT INCREASES TO
25% UNDER BEST MANAGEMENT
PRACTICE.
IF KNOW EFFORT IS MADE IT GOES
TO 100%.
WEEDS ARE PROBABLY THE GREATEST
BIOTIC CONSTRAINT TO CROP
PRODUCTION ESPECIALLY IN
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, RECOGNIZED
GLOBALLY AS ONE OF THE PRIMARY
SOURCES OF HUMAN LABOR BECAUSE
IT TAKES A LOT OF HUMAN LABOR TO
CONTROL WEEDS.
SO, WHEN YOU LOOK AT CO2 IN
CONTEXT OF, WELL, HOW DOES THIS
IN TERN AFFECT OUR ABILITY TO
CONTROL PESTS, FOCUSING ON
HERBICIDE EFFICACY PARTICULARLY
FOR ROUNDUP, THIS WAS CANADA
THISTLE UNDER DIFFERENT CARBON
DIOXIDE CONCENTRATIONS, HERE 80%
CONTROL.
HERE WE USED RECOMMENDED DOSAGE
AND GOT ZERO CONTROL.
DIFFERENCE IS RELATED TO CARBON
DIOXIDE, ADDITIONAL GROWTH FOR
THE WEED MADE THE WEED HEARTER
TO MANAGE.
WHEN YOU LOOK AMOUNT BIOMASS
RELATED TO AMBIENT CO2, WE
DIDN'T SEE A BIG EFFECT ON
SHOOTS BUT WHAT WE DID SEE IS
BIG EFFECT WITH RESPECT TO ROOT
GROWTH.
THAT'S IMPORTANT BECAUSE WHEN
CO2 STIMULATES ROOTS OVER
LEAVES, ROOTS ARE CAPABLE OF
REGENERATING NEW PLANTS AND AS A
RESULT OF THIS DILUTION
BASICALLY WE WEREN'T ABLE TO
CONTROL THE WEED.
IS THIS THE MECHANISM FOR OTHER
REPORTS OF REDUCTION IN EFFICACY
WITH PESTICIDES OR HERBICIDES?
NOT SURE.
BUT IT'S CERTAINLY ONE OF THE
THINGS TO KEEP IN MIND.
THERE'S ALSO THE ISSUE OF CO2
REDUCING NUTRITIONAL CONTENT.
WE'VE SEEN THIS IN A NUMBER OF
CONTEXTS.
MATT IS THE WORLD EXPERT ON
THIS.
I'LL BRIEFLY TOUCH ON SOME WORK
THAT WAS DONE BY DANIEL LOOKING
AT ONE OF THE FIRST
META-ANALYSES FOR CROP STAPLES,
PERCENT CHANGE OF PROTEIN, ZERO
MEANS NO EFFECT, SOYBEAN IT WAS
A MINOR CHANGE BUT FOR MANY OF
THE STAPLES LIKE BARLEY, RICE,
WHEAT, IT WAS SIGNIFICANT.
AND THEN THIS IS FROM e-LIFE
ARTICLE, BASICALLY THE POINT IS
JUST TO SAY AS CARBON INCREASES
RAPIDLY IN THE ATMOSPHERE WE'LL
SEE THIS CHANGE IN TERMS OF
PLANT STOICHIOMETRY, SOIL BASED
NOT MAKING PACE, WE'RE SEEING
IMBALANCE OCCURRING ACROSS THE
RANGE OF DIFFERENT MACRO AND
MICRO NUTRIENTS.
SO, CO2 IS LIKELY TO IMPACT
GLOBAL NUTRITION.
CHANGE IN PROTEIN IS ONGOING.
THIS IS JUST SOME WORK LOOKING
AT RICE FOR THE CHANGE IN CO2
THAT'S ALREADY OCCURRED WHERE WE
HAD 7 OUT OF 8 RICE LINES FAIRLY
BROUGHT IN TERMS OF GENETICS
SHOWING SIGNIFICANT DECLINE IN
PROTEIN CONCENTRATION.
IT'S HAPPENING IN REAL TIME, NOT
SOMETHING THAT WILL HAPPEN IN
THE FUTURE.
FOOD SAFETY, WE'VE ALL HAD THAT
EXPERIENCE OF EATING
CONTAMINATED FOOD.
IT'S NOT PLEASANT, E. COLI,
CLOSTRIDIUM, SALMONELLA.
WHEN YOU LOOK AT OTHER ISSUES
RELATED TO FOOD SAFETY
MYCOTOXINS COME TO MIND,
AFLOTOXIN RECOGNIZED AS
CARCINOGEN, RIGHT NOW PRIMARILY
IN AFRICA BECAUSE OF THE CLIMATE
BUT OF
CLIMATE BUT WE ANTS ANTICIPATE
SOUTHERN EUROPE WILL BE AT RISK.
HURRICANE SANDY IN TERMS OF
INFRASTRUCTURE, ABILITY TO
ACCESS FOOD FOLLOWING MAJOR
EVENTS OR TYPHOON HAIYAN, BEING
ABLE TO GET HOLD OF ADEQUATE
FOOD, SAFE FOOD, AND WATER AFTER
THESE CATEGORY 4 OR 5 STORMS IS
SOMETHING THAT IS BECOMING MORE
EVIDENT ON PEOPLE'S RADAR.
SO, WHEN YOU LOOK AT CLIMATE
CHANGE AND CO2, IMPACT ON FOOD
SECURITY, PHYSICAL AND
BIOLOGICAL THREATS, NUTRITIONAL
CHANGES, THESE ARE ALL IMPORTANT
IN TERMS OF LOOKING AT HOW
CLIMATE CHANGE AND CO2 IMPOSES
EFFECT ON THIS ISSUE.
SO THERE ARE CHOICES.
A LOT OF CHOICES IN TERMS OF
LOOKING AT HOW TO DEAL WITH
THIS.
I WON'T GO THROUGH ALL OF THESE.
BRIEFLY I'LL MENTION SOME OFF
THE OFF
THE SHELF STUFF, SOLAR PANELS,
IMPROVING EFFICACY USING HUMAN
WASTE AS A MEANS TO IMPROVE SOIL
HEALTH AFTER IT'S BEEN PROPERLY
TREATED, CHANGES IN WATER
CONTENT, CHANGES IN CELL PHONE
ACCESS, CHANGES IN
INFRASTRUCTURE, DO IT YOURSELF
CHANGES, CONVERTING URINE INTO
FERTILIZER, CHANGES IN CELL
PHONES, SO FORTH AND SO ON.
CHANGES IN FOOD WASTE, HOW WE
APPROACH IT.
LOOKING AT FOOD RECOVERY, NOT
JUST AS WE THROW IT AWAY BUT HOW
DO WE BEGIN TO SORT OF
CATEGORIZE IT IN TERMS OF, YOU
KNOW, HOW CAN IT BE USED TO FEED
HUNGRY PEOPLE, TO PROVIDE FOOD
BANKS, ANIMALS, WHAT NEEDS TO BE
DONE WITH POLICY CHANGES AND
THOSE CIRCUMSTANCES.
CORN AS ETHANOL, ALSO A BIG
CHANGE AS WELL.
THIS NEEDS TO BE ADDRESSED
BECAUSE CORN IS NOT THE BEST
BIOFUEL.
IN FACT, THE BEST BIOFUEL IS
SWEET POTATO.
IF YOU LOOK AT IT IN TERMS OF
ITS COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS, I
WILL POINT OUT THAT THE ANALYSIS
WE DID WE WERE ABLE TO GET
ALMOST THREE TIMES THE AMOUNT,
AT LEAST TWICE THE AMOUNT.
THE REASON WHY IS THAT SWEET
POTATO IS NOT NORMALLY GROWN THE
WAY WE WOULD GROW IT FOR FUEL.
THAT'S HOW YOU GROW INDUSTRIAL
SWEET POTATOES.
YOU WOULD NOT BE ABLE TO EAT
THAT IN A SINGLE SITTING BUT
IT'S GOOD IN TERMS OF LOOKING AT
IT AS A POTENTIAL CROP OR
REPLACEMENT FOR BIOFUELS.
POLY CULTURE, GROWING DIFFERENT
THINGS, RICE AND CORN.
SORRY, RICE AND DUCKS TOGETHER,
SELECTING FOR GREATER YIELD
RESPONSES, HERE SHOWING CLEAR
FIELD IN STUTTGART, CDO FOR CO2
THAT'S ALREADY OCCURRED SHOWING
THAT STUTTGART DOES MUCH BETTER.
THERE'S NO EVIDENCE BREEDERS
HAVE SELECTED FOR CO2 AS
ADDITIONAL RESOURCE, OBVIOUSLY
AN OPPORTUNITY TO BEGIN TO LOOK
AT THIS.
MORE WORK WITH THE WEEDY RICE,
LOOKING AT DIVERSITY AND THAT
USING THAT DIVERSITY, GENETIC
DIVERSITY AS A MEANS TO BEGIN TO
ADAPT TO ALL THE DIFFERENT
TEMPERATURES AND CO2, HERE ALONG
THE X-AXIS AND TEMPERATURES,
HERE DOING THE SAME THING BUT
HIGH TEMPERATURE, 37 DEGREES AT
FLOURING, TALKED ABOUT THE
FLORAL STERILITY, DIDN'T SEE
THAT FOR WEEDY LINES, USING
GENETICS TO ADAPT AND TRYING TO
GET BEYOND THE SORT OF MONO
CULTURE TYPE FRAMEWORK THAT WE
CURRENTLY HAVE IN PLACE.
I'LL POINT OUT SOME THINGS
HAPPENING IN POTATO FIELDS IN
PERU.
THEY GROW POTATOES DIFFERENTLY.
THEY PLANT WEEDS ALONG THE EDGES
WHEN THEY GROW POTATOES AND LOOK
AT THE END OF THE SEASON FOR
INTERCOMPARISONS, SOME WEEDING
POTATOES WILL CROSS WITH
DOMESTICATED, ANALYZED TO
DETERMINE BENEFITS AND
DETRIMENTS AMONG NEW LINES
FORMED, BECAUSE IN PERU THE
CONDITIONS CHANGE SO FREQUENTLY.
BUT THIS APPROACH IS SOMETHING
THAT I THINK WOULD BE
POTENTIALLY A MEANS PARADIGM
GOING FORWARD, BEGIN TO ANALYZE.
OF COURSE, POTATO PRODUCTION
DOESN'T SHOW UPS AND DOWNS WE DO
HERE IN THE UNITED STATES.
SO, GMOs, SEED SAVERS, MINI
HABERS ARE IMPORTANT, IN THE
RAINBOWS AND UNICORN CATEGORY.
WE NEED TO SAVE SEEDS, THE NEED
IS SELF-EVIDENT.
THINKING ABOUT INDUSTRIALIZATION
PROCESS OF CONVERTING NITROGEN
GAS TO FERTILIZER IS SOMETHING
THAT NEEDS TO BE REASSESSED AND
PERHAPS MINIATURIZED, BIO-CHAR
HAS HAD SOME SUCCESS ADDING HIGH
BAR CARBON SOURCE TO SOIL AND
SEEING WHAT HAPPENS.
IT'S EXPENSIVE.
IT'S $2,500 A TON AS OPPOSED TO
COAL WHICH TURNS OUT IS IN FACT
ALSO KIND OF LIKE CHARCOAL, A
SOURCE OF CARBON THAT COULD BE
ADDED TO THE SOIL BUT OF COURSE
IT HAS ITS OWN PREJUDICE AGAINST
USING COAL IN THE LONG TERM.
I OF PRECISION FERMENTATION HAS
GOTTEN A LOT OF ATTENTION USING
MICROBES FOR GENETIC
ENGINEERING, PROTEINS FOR MILK,
BEER.
HERE IS REMILK, A NEW INDUSTRY,
PRECISION FERMENTATION,
PRODUCING SAME PRODUCTS IN ONE
FACTORY, 50,000 COWS.
IF THIS COMES TO PASS NEW
FACTORY JUST OPENED IN DENMARK,
WHAT DOES IT MEAN IN TERMS OF
DAIRY INDUSTRY IN EUROPE AND
U.S.?
A WAIT AND SEE BUT CERTAINLY IN
TERMS OF ITS POTENTIAL IS REALLY
REMARKABLE.
RETHINKING PEST MANAGEMENT,
TRYING TO KEEP TRACK THROUGH
CELL PHONES OF WHAT'S HAPPENING
GLOBALLY.
BEING ABLE TO KEEP TRACK OF
PERTHINEUM IS ONE APPROACH ON A
GLOBAL BASIS, USING IPM, NEW
METHODS SUCH AS DRONES AND EVEN
KILLER WEED ROBOTS WHERE YOU
DON'T HAVE TO USE PESTICIDES.
WE'RE TRYING TO PUT TOGETHER THE
FACT ALLIANCE, DIFFERENT GROUPS
ARE JOINING AS A MEANS TO BEGIN
ASSIMILATING OUR DISCIPLINES SO
IT'S NOT A ONE-SIZE-FITS-ALL
APPROACH, WE THINK CHALLENGES IN
CLIMATE ARE SUCH THAT IT'S NOT A
ONE UNIVERSITY THAT WILL BE ABLE
TO ADDRESS THOSE, WE WANT TO PUT
TOGETHER A YELLOW PAGES FOR
DIFFERENT FOLKS TO CONTACT THE
FACT ALLIANCE AND BEGIN TO THEN
ASSESS THEIR PROBLEMS BUT THEN
COME INTO OR LINK TO THOSE
ACADEMICS THAT ARE EXPERTS IN
THEIR FIELD.
THESE ARE SOME JOINERS WE'VE
GOTTEN SO FAR.
RESEARCH IN TERMS OF SHARING
RESEARCH, LOOK FOR WIN-WIN
COMMONALITIES, GLOBAL SCIENCE
PLATFORMS, GERM PLASM, EDUCATION
FOR AGRONOMIC MEANS, INVESTING
IN PUBLIC RESEARCH TO SUSTAIN
AND IMPROVE AGRICULTURE, ALL
THESE ARE IMPORTANT AND JUST TO
GIVE YOU SOME SENSE OF WHAT'S
HANG HERE, THE DEPARTMENT OF
DEFENSE IS SHOWN ON THE LEFT,
THAT'S LOOKING AT RESEARCH AND
DEVELOP.
MILLIONS OF DOLLARS.
AG DEPARTMENT, NIH, ALSO SHOWN.
THE AG DEPARTMENT IS TINY
COMPARED TO WHAT IS HAPPENING
WITH RESPECT TO DoD.
SO GETTING THE MESSAGE OUT,
TALKING TO POLICYMAKERS,
UNDERSTANDING SCIENCE VERSUS
GOVERNMENT, DIFFERENCES THERE,
ABILITY TO COMMUNICATE, FARM
BILL AND CLIMATE, INCREASED
PRODUCTIVITY, ENHANCED
RESILIENCE, REDUCED EMISSIONS.
PART OF WHAT'S CALLED SMART
AGRICULTURE, CLIMATE SMART
AGRICULTURE, BUT UNFORTUNATELY
THERE'S BEEN A LOT OF NEW FUNDS
MADE AVAILABLE, AREN'T
NECESSARILY GOING TO FARMERS,
AND WHEN YOU START LOOKING AT
WHAT NEEDS TO HAPPEN IN TERMS OF
MONITORING AND MEASURING
GREENHOUSE GASES IT'S SOMETHING
WE ALSO NEED TO DO.
I'LL WRAP UP THERE, FINISH BY
SAYING THAT FOOD SECURITY
PRODUCTION QUALITY AND SAFETY
ARE ALL IMPACTED BY CLIMATE
CHANGE, SPECIFICALLY RISE IN CO2
AND TEMPERATURE, BUT MANY MEANS,
SCIENTIFIC, ECONOMIC, SOCIAL,
EVEN RAINBOW MEANS TO MINIMIZE
THIS IMPACT BUT TO SUSTAIN AND
IT'S JUST A QUESTION OF MOVING
FORWARD.
I'LL STOP THERE.
I THINK WE'RE GOING SEGUE INTO
QUESTIONS.
>> THANKS, LEW.
WE HAVE ONE LAST SET HERE WHICH
WE WANTED TO TALK THROUGH BEFORE
WE OPEN BACK UP TO QUESTIONS.
THIS IS ONLY GOING TO TAKE ABOUT
TWO MINUTES BECAUSE WE'RE A
LITTLE BIT BEHIND, THROUGH MY
OWN FAULT.
THIS IS OUR FRAMEWORK FOR
THINKING ABOUT INTERVENTIONS.
AND HOW WE CHARACTERIZE THOSE.
DISCLOSURES BUT THIS IS WHAT I
WANT TO FOCUS ON.
OUR TEAM IS THINKING ABOUT
CHARACTERIZING POTENTIAL CHOICES
OR INTERVENTIONS UNDER THE GUISE
OF NORMATIVE FRAMEWORK PROPOSED
IN THE U.N. FOOD SUMMIT
DISCUSSIONS IN 2021.
THE IDEA HERE IS THAT THERE'S
TWO STRATEGIES THROUGH WHICH WE
CAN VIEW FOOD SYSTEMS.
ONE IS TO LOOK AT SYSTEMS AS
THEY CURRENTLY ARE, IDENTIFY
WHERE WE CAN INTRODUCE DESIRABLE
CHANGE.
THE OTHER IS WE CAN POSTULATE
WHAT IDEAL SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE AND
SHAPE SYSTEMS TO SERVE THOSE
OBJECTIVES.
BOTH HAVE SOME OPPORTUNITIES AND
LIMITATIONS BUT ALSO GIVE US A
LENS THROUGH WHICH WE CAN THINK
ABOUT POTENTIAL INTERVENTIONS.
TO THINK ABOUT THINGS LIKE
FORTIFICATION, SUPPLEMENTATION,
MANAGEMENT PRACTICES, GENETICS,
THESE ARE THINGS THAT PROBABLY
FALL UNDER THIS POSITIVE
FRAMEWORK, FOR FOOD SYSTEM
INTERVENTIONS AND UNDER
NORMATIVE FRAMEWORK THINGS LIKE
SHIFTING OUR PRODUCTION
PATTERNS, SHIFTING DIETS OR FOOD
DEMAND, GENERATION OF NEW FOODS,
AND GENERATION OF NEW FOOD
SYSTEMS.
IN FACT SOME CONTROLLED
ENVIRONMENT AGRICULTURE, SOME
EXAMPLES OF WHAT WE MEAN.
WHAT OUR TEAM IS HOPING TO DO IS
CONTEXTUALIZE CHOICES WE'VE
TALKED ABOUT, UNDER THE CONTEXT
OF POSITIVE AND NORMATIVE
FRAMEWORKS, AND SORT OUT
INTERSECTION OF THE TWO WAYS OF
THINKING TO HELP FURTHER
IDENTIFY GAPS IN OPPORTUNITIES,
WHAT WE NEED TO KNOW MORE ABOUT
AS WE POSTULATE OUR ABILITY TO
ADAPT TO CLIMATE CHANGE.
WE'LL GO AHEAD AND OPEN UP FOR
OUR FINAL DISCUSSION SESSION.
PLEASE FEEL FREE TO RAISE YOUR
HAND, UNMUTE AND ASK THOSE
DIRECTLY, OR WE'RE HAPPY TO TAKE
THOSE QUESTIONS THROUGH THE
CHAT.
IS THERE ANYBODY THAT WOULD LIKE
TO START US OFF?
GO AHEAD, DAN.
>> THANK YOU.
TREMENDOUS SET OF PRESENTATIONS.
SPOT ON, I THINK, MAKING
TREMENDOUS PROGRESS.
I HAVE A SPECIFIC QUESTION FOR
LEW.
I MAY HAVE ASKED IN THE PAST BUT
STILL DON'T HAVE A GOOD ANSWER.
TALKING ABOUT INTERVENTIONS,
LOTS OF DRIVERS, HOW WE MAKE
CHOICES, SPECIFIC REGARD TO FOOD
FORTIFICATION AND EXPECTATIONS
WITH REGARD TO THE ABILITY OF
FORTIFIED FOOD SUPPLY TO ADDRESS
GLOBAL MICRONUTRIENT NEEDS, ARE
THERE DATA THAT INDICATE THAT
EFFORTS LIKE HARVEST PLUS AND
OTHERS DOING BIOFORTIFICATION OF
FOODS ARE ADDRESSING THIS
INTERSECTION, ARE WE ABLE TO
MEET OUR EXPECTATIONS WITH
REGARD TO FORTIFIED FOODS AND
ADDRESSING THINGS LIKE
MICRONUTRIENT DEFICIENCY?
>> I THINK IT'S A GOOD
QUESTION, DAN.
THANK YOU.
WHAT LOOMS OVER THAT IS SORT OF
ECONOMIC INCENTIVE TO MOVE
FORWARD.
RIGHT NOW THERE'S NO INCENTIVE
FOR A FARMER TO GROW A CROP WITH
HIGHER LEVEL OF PROTEIN OR IRON.
UNTIL THAT INCENTIVE BECOMES
PART OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH
POLICY CHANGES OR PRESSURE FROM
DIFFERENT GROUPS OR FROM THE
PUBLIC AS A WHOLE, I DON'T SEE
MUCH CHANGING IN THAT REGARD.
WITH RESPECT TO EFFORTS THAT ARE
CURRENTLY UNDERWAY, WITH RESPECT
TO BIOFORTIFICATION OR GENETIC
SELECTION, OR GMOs, THERE'S A
LOT OF OPPORTUNITY TO ADDRESS
THAT BUT RIGHT NOW THERE'S NO
ONE-SIZE-FITS-ALL APPROACH GOING
FORWARD.
>> THE CURRENT INFERENCE WE
HAVE, CURRENT ENTERPRISE ONGOING
TO ADDRESS MICRONUTRIENT
INSUFFICIENCY GLOBALLY, WE DON'T
REALLY KNOW WHETHER OR NOT WE'RE
MEETING THOSE EXPECTATIONS?
>> CORRECT.
RIGHT NOW IF YOU LOOKED ONLY AT
CARBON DIOXIDE EFFECTS PER SE IN
TERMS OF MICRONUTRIENTS,
PARTICULARLY IRON AND ZINC,
WE'RE GOING TO FALL BELOW WHAT'S
NEEDED FROM A DIETARY
NUTRITIONAL POINT OF VIEW.
>> NANCY, ARE YOU STILL THERE?
>> YES.
>> ANY THOUGHTS?
>> WELL, I THINK THAT'S JUST A
REALLY KEY QUESTION CAN WE MAKE
UP THE DIFFERENCE?
AS ALLUDED TO EARLIER, FARMERS
HAVE TO MAKE A LIVING, AND SO
THERE HAS TO BE INCENTIVES TO --
ECONOMIC INCENTIVES TO CHANGE
WHAT THEY ARE GROWING BUT I
THINK STILL IT'S VERY MUCH AN
OPEN QUESTION WHETHER
BIOFORTIFICATION CAN REALLY
COVER THE NEEDS THAT ARE GOING
TO BE -- YOU KNOW,
COUNTER-BALANCING AS FAR AS
COMPOSITION.
I DON'T HAVE ANY ANSWERS.
>> THIS IS GOING TO BE A GREAT
OPPORTUNITY, SEVERAL WORKING
GROUPS HAVE DISCUSSED USE OF
CASE STUDIES.
THIS MIGHT BE ONE OF THOSE CASE
STUDIES THAT MIGHT TIE ALL THIS
UP TOGETHER.
WE HAVE A GLOBAL ENTERPRISE TO
ADDRESS IRON DEFICIENCY, FOR
EXAMPLE, AND OUR DECISIONS ABOUT
WHAT INTERVENTIONS WE CAN USE IS
GOING TO BE CONTINGENT ON ALL OF
THESE FOOD SYSTEMS AND THIS
INTERSECTION.
>> WELL, OF COURSE THAT'S
WHY -- IT'S ALWAYS IN THE BACK
OF MY MIND THINKING ABOUT TOTAL
MOVE AWAY FROM ANIMAL SOURCE
FOODS THAT HAS TREMENDOUS
IMPLICATION FOR MICRONUTRIENT
NEEDS PARTICULARLY FOR CERTAIN
PORTIONS OF THE POPULATIONS.
SO, FINE FOR US AS ADULTS NOT IN
THE REPRODUCTIVE CYCLE AND NOT
INFANTS AND TODDLERS BUT QUITE A
DIFFERENT STORY FOR THEM.
>> THANKS, NANCY.
YOU GOT NOTHING ELSE TO DO.
[LAUGHTER]
>> DO WE HAVE ANY OTHER FINAL
QUESTIONS FOR THE TEAM?
GREAT.
HEARING NONE --
>> WE CAN ASK ONE QUESTION AS
LONG AS WE'RE TALKING ABOUT
MICRONUTRIENTS, THE DRIVERS FOR
FISH, OMEGA 3s AND VALUE OF OH
MAKE A 3s.
I BELIEVE THERE'S DATA THAT
INDICATES THERE ARE CHANGES IN
THE COMPOSITION OF OMEGA 3s IN
FISH BOTH WILD CAUGHT AND
DOMESTICALLY RAISED.
ANY THOUGHTS ON THAT?
>> YEAH, YEAH.
THAT'S A GOOD QUESTION.
SO, I THINK IN TERMS OF THE
AQUACULTURE SPECIES, THEY ARE
WHAT THEY EAT, RIGHT?
WE HAVE A LOT OF -- WE, THE
AQUACULTURE PRODUCERS HAVE A LOT
OF CONTROL OVER THE DEGREE TO
WHICH THEY ARE FED FISH
IMPACTING THE CONTENT.
WE HAVE SOME RELATIVELY RECENT
ANALYSES FROM COMPARING CAGED
FISH RAISED IN LAKE VICTORIA TO
WILD FISH TO POND FISH, AND YOU
CAN REALLY SEE THE SIGNATURE OF
THE FEED IN THE FATTY ACID
COMPOSITION OF THE RESULTING
FISH, RIGHT?
SO THAT AQUACULTURE SYSTEM I
THINK THERE IS A BIG QUESTION
ABOUT WHAT THE FATTY ACID
COMPOSITION OF THE FISH WILL
LOOK LIKE ACROSS THE BOARD,
THERE'S LIKELY -- FEED IS A BIG
ISSUE IN AQUACULTURE IN GENERAL.
FARMER STRUGGLE TO GET HIGH
QUALITY FEED.
THAT'S A TREMENDOUS AREA FOR
INNOVATION AND IT WILL REALLY
AFFECT THE RESULTING NUTRIENT
COMPOSITION OF THE FISH THAT ARE
PRODUCED THROUGH THOSE SYSTEMS
FOR SURE.
IN THE WILD SYSTEM, THE FATTY
ACID COMPOSITION ARISES FROM
WHAT THE FISH EAT AS WELL.
SO THERE ARE POTENTIALLY SHIFTS
THAT WILL HAPPEN DUE TO ALGAE
SPECIES IN THE FOOD WEB, FOR
EXAMPLE, AND HOW THAT SHIFTS
RELATED TO CLIMATE AS WELL.
I'M NOT AWARE OF ANY SYSTEMATIC
INVESTIGATION OF THAT BUT IT'S
CERTAINLY VERY MUCH OF CONCERN
AS WELL.
>> EXCELLENT.
WELL, IF WE DON'T HAVE FURTHER
DISCUSSION, FURTHER QUESTIONS,
WE'LL PULL OUR WORKING GROUP 3
WORKSHOP TO A CLOSE AND THANK
YOU ALL FOR YOUR ATTENTION.
THREE-HOUR SESSIONS CAN BE QUITE
THE MARATHON.
THOSE THAT STUCK THROUGH THE
WHOLE THING, YOU'RE MUCH
APPRECIATED.
THANKS EVERYONE.