1 00:00:05,680 --> 00:00:06,280 MY NAME IS DREW BREMER, IT IS 2 00:00:06,280 --> 00:00:07,920 AGAIN MY PLEASURE TO WELCOME YOU 3 00:00:07,920 --> 00:00:08,480 TO THE THIRD MEETING FOR THE 4 00:00:08,480 --> 00:00:10,320 AGRICULTURE AND DIET VALUE ADDED 5 00:00:10,320 --> 00:00:11,960 FOR NUTRITION TRANSLATION, 6 00:00:11,960 --> 00:00:13,360 ADAPTATION IN A GLOBAL ECOLOGY, 7 00:00:13,360 --> 00:00:14,480 OR ADVANTAGE PROJECT. 8 00:00:14,480 --> 00:00:16,200 MY CAT WELCOMES YOU AS WELL. 9 00:00:16,200 --> 00:00:18,440 AS I MENTIONED AT THE KICKOFF 10 00:00:18,440 --> 00:00:20,000 MEETING LAST WEEK, THE ADVANTAGE 11 00:00:20,000 --> 00:00:22,160 PROJECT IS INTENDED TO AID THE 12 00:00:22,160 --> 00:00:23,480 GLOBAL COMMUNITY IN ADDRESSING 13 00:00:23,480 --> 00:00:25,560 THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF THE 14 00:00:25,560 --> 00:00:28,120 INTERSECTION OF CLIMATES AND 15 00:00:28,120 --> 00:00:29,320 ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGES, FOOD 16 00:00:29,320 --> 00:00:30,440 SYSTEMS, NUTRITION AND HEALTH, 17 00:00:30,440 --> 00:00:32,640 BY FOCUSING ON THE EVIDENCE, 18 00:00:32,640 --> 00:00:34,040 SPECIFICALLY WHAT IS KNOWN AND 19 00:00:34,040 --> 00:00:38,080 WHAT IS NOT KNOWN, HOW GAPS AND 20 00:00:38,080 --> 00:00:40,160 EVIDENCE MIGHT BE ADDRESSED, HOW 21 00:00:40,160 --> 00:00:44,680 TO APPLY EVIDENCE EFFECTIVELY IN 22 00:00:44,680 --> 00:00:47,080 SUPPORT OF A SUSTAINABLE OF 23 00:00:47,080 --> 00:00:51,160 RESILIENT PROGRAMS. 24 00:00:51,160 --> 00:00:53,840 TODAY WE'LL FOCUS ON IMPACT OF 25 00:00:53,840 --> 00:00:56,240 CLIMBED AND CHANGE. 26 00:00:56,240 --> 00:01:02,440 I WANT TO RECOGNIZE DR. DAN 27 00:01:02,440 --> 00:01:03,800 RAITEN FROM THE EUNICE KENNEDY 28 00:01:03,800 --> 00:01:04,880 SHRIVER NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF 29 00:01:04,880 --> 00:01:07,080 THE CHILD HEALTH AND HUMAN 30 00:01:07,080 --> 00:01:16,600 DEVELOPMENT AND DR. ALLISON 31 00:01:16,600 --> 00:01:20,120 STIVER. 32 00:01:20,120 --> 00:01:23,760 DEBBIE STEIN, DEBBIE BUCKIE AND 33 00:01:23,760 --> 00:01:25,680 INDIVIDUALS WHO WORKED BEHIND 34 00:01:25,680 --> 00:01:26,800 THE SCENES. 35 00:01:26,800 --> 00:01:28,800 WE KNOW VIRTUAL MEETINGS DON'T 36 00:01:28,800 --> 00:01:30,520 HAPPEN WITHOUT A LOT OF SUPPORT. 37 00:01:30,520 --> 00:01:32,840 AGAIN, TO THE ENTIRE ADVANTAGE 38 00:01:32,840 --> 00:01:33,920 TEAM, THANK YOU. 39 00:01:33,920 --> 00:01:36,160 FOR THOSE JOINING US VIA 40 00:01:36,160 --> 00:01:37,200 VIDEOCAST, THANK YOU, THANK YOU 41 00:01:37,200 --> 00:01:38,840 FOR YOUR INTEREST IN THIS 42 00:01:38,840 --> 00:01:39,080 PROJECT. 43 00:01:39,080 --> 00:01:42,000 DO FEEL FREE TO SEND QUESTIONS 44 00:01:42,000 --> 00:01:52,480 AND COMMENTS TO OUR E-MAIL. 45 00:01:53,240 --> 00:01:55,160 I'LL PASS THE TORCH TO DAN 46 00:01:55,160 --> 00:01:57,680 RAITEN TO GIVE AN OVERVIEW AND 47 00:01:57,680 --> 00:01:59,800 INTRODUCE WORKING GROUP 3. 48 00:01:59,800 --> 00:02:01,360 >> THANKS, DREW. 49 00:02:01,360 --> 00:02:03,200 THANKS FOR YOUR LEADERSHIP AND 50 00:02:03,200 --> 00:02:06,720 THE LEADERSHIP OF NICHD, DR. 51 00:02:06,720 --> 00:02:08,160 BIANCHI AND DR. CERNICH FOR THIS 52 00:02:08,160 --> 00:02:11,240 SUPPORT IN THIS PROJECT. 53 00:02:11,240 --> 00:02:13,200 THIS PROJECT IS A PARTNERSHIP 54 00:02:13,200 --> 00:02:14,640 BETWEEN MULTIPLE AGENCIES AND 55 00:02:14,640 --> 00:02:16,480 WE'LL GO THROUGH THAT, INTRODUCE 56 00:02:16,480 --> 00:02:18,480 THOSE AS WE MOVE FORWARD. 57 00:02:18,480 --> 00:02:20,240 I WANT TO ONCE AGAIN REFRESH 58 00:02:20,240 --> 00:02:21,320 EVERYBODY ABOUT WHAT WE'RE 59 00:02:21,320 --> 00:02:25,120 TRYING TO DO WITH THIS PROJECT, 60 00:02:25,120 --> 00:02:29,360 WHAT WE ARE AND AREN'T. 61 00:02:29,360 --> 00:02:29,680 NEXT SLIDE. 62 00:02:29,680 --> 00:02:31,680 WE'RE ALL COMMITTED TO THE 63 00:02:31,680 --> 00:02:33,440 CONCEPT OF EVIDENCE-BASED 64 00:02:33,440 --> 00:02:34,120 PROGRAMS, POLICIES, STANDARDS OF 65 00:02:34,120 --> 00:02:39,160 CARE, AND WE UNDERSTAND OUR ROLE 66 00:02:39,160 --> 00:02:41,760 AT NICHD AND NIH IS SUPPORTING 67 00:02:41,760 --> 00:02:42,720 EXTRAMURAL RESEARCH COMMUNITY IN 68 00:02:42,720 --> 00:02:45,040 THEIR EFFORTS TO GENERATE THE 69 00:02:45,040 --> 00:02:47,040 EVIDENCE NEEDED TO GENERATE 70 00:02:47,040 --> 00:02:48,080 THESE NEW PROGRAMS, POLICIES, 71 00:02:48,080 --> 00:02:51,160 STANDARDS OF CARE, BUT WE ALSO 72 00:02:51,160 --> 00:02:52,040 RECOGNIZE IMPORTANCE OF 73 00:02:52,040 --> 00:02:52,520 TRANSLATION. 74 00:02:52,520 --> 00:02:56,640 BEING AT THE TABLE FOR 75 00:02:56,640 --> 00:02:57,320 CONVERSATIONS, AGENCIES, 76 00:02:57,320 --> 00:02:59,360 ORGANIZATIONS INVOLVED IN 77 00:02:59,360 --> 00:03:01,040 EFFORTS TO DEVELOP 78 00:03:01,040 --> 00:03:02,680 INTERVENTIONS, PUBLIC HEALTH 79 00:03:02,680 --> 00:03:06,040 INTERVENTIONS, AND THE LIKE. 80 00:03:06,040 --> 00:03:07,600 SO, WE RECOGNIZE IMPORTANT 81 00:03:07,600 --> 00:03:09,640 BALANCE BETWEEN THE RESEARCH, 82 00:03:09,640 --> 00:03:10,360 BIOMEDICAL RESEARCH ENTERPRISE 83 00:03:10,360 --> 00:03:12,720 AND TRANSLATION OF THAT EVIDENCE 84 00:03:12,720 --> 00:03:15,880 BOTH IN TERMS OF DEVELOPMENT OF 85 00:03:15,880 --> 00:03:17,120 NEW INTERVENTIONS, RANDOMIZED 86 00:03:17,120 --> 00:03:18,840 CLINICAL TRIALS, DESIGN OF THOSE 87 00:03:18,840 --> 00:03:20,600 TRIALS, AS WELL AS SUPPORT OF 88 00:03:20,600 --> 00:03:22,240 THE COMMUNITIES AND THEIR 89 00:03:22,240 --> 00:03:23,560 EFFORTS TO MESSAGE AND AVOID 90 00:03:23,560 --> 00:03:26,000 CONFUSION ABOUT THIS NEW AND 91 00:03:26,000 --> 00:03:28,240 EMERGING EVIDENCE. 92 00:03:28,240 --> 00:03:28,720 NEXT SLIDE. 93 00:03:28,720 --> 00:03:32,120 SO WHAT ARE WE TALKING ABOUT 94 00:03:32,120 --> 00:03:32,320 HERE? 95 00:03:32,320 --> 00:03:32,760 NEXT SLIDE. 96 00:03:32,760 --> 00:03:34,960 WITH SPECIFIC REGARD TO 97 00:03:34,960 --> 00:03:35,960 EVIDENCE-BASED PROGRAMS, 98 00:03:35,960 --> 00:03:37,080 POLICIES, STANDARDS OF CARE, 99 00:03:37,080 --> 00:03:40,680 RELATED TO THE ROLE OF DIET, 100 00:03:40,680 --> 00:03:41,880 NUTRITION AND HEALTH, THERE'S 101 00:03:41,880 --> 00:03:44,800 THREE MAIN BUCKETS OF EVIDENCE 102 00:03:44,800 --> 00:03:46,800 THAT ARE EVALUATED. 103 00:03:46,800 --> 00:03:48,520 THERE'S THE IMPACT ON HEALTH AND 104 00:03:48,520 --> 00:03:50,840 RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN HEALTH AND 105 00:03:50,840 --> 00:03:53,960 BIOLOGY OF HUMANS AND ROLE OF 106 00:03:53,960 --> 00:03:55,920 NUTRITION IN THAT BIOLOGY. 107 00:03:55,920 --> 00:03:57,040 THERE'S DIETARY PATTERNS, WHAT 108 00:03:57,040 --> 00:03:58,440 PEOPLE EAT AND WHY. 109 00:03:58,440 --> 00:04:01,960 AND THEN IN MANY CASES, MORE SO, 110 00:04:01,960 --> 00:04:04,560 WE'LL LEARN MORE TODAY, IS THE 111 00:04:04,560 --> 00:04:08,080 ROLE OF FOOD SYSTEMS, FOOD 112 00:04:08,080 --> 00:04:10,160 SYSTEMS WRIT LARGE, IN THESE 113 00:04:10,160 --> 00:04:10,800 RELATIONSHIPS. 114 00:04:10,800 --> 00:04:12,000 THE CORE QUESTIONS HERE ARE 115 00:04:12,000 --> 00:04:13,560 WHAT'S THE IMPACT OF CHANGING 116 00:04:13,560 --> 00:04:14,960 ENVIRONMENT ON THESE THREE 117 00:04:14,960 --> 00:04:15,360 BUCKETS? 118 00:04:15,360 --> 00:04:17,680 IS THERE EVIDENCE TO INDICATE 119 00:04:17,680 --> 00:04:20,760 THERE ARE CHANGES GOING ON, 120 00:04:20,760 --> 00:04:22,000 CONSEQUENCES OF CHANGING 121 00:04:22,000 --> 00:04:23,040 ENVIRONMENT INCLUDING CLIMATE 122 00:04:23,040 --> 00:04:23,520 CHANGE? 123 00:04:23,520 --> 00:04:27,400 CAN WE IMPROVE PRECISION AND 124 00:04:27,400 --> 00:04:29,040 ATTRIBUTION IN THE ABSENCE OF 125 00:04:29,040 --> 00:04:30,640 INCLUSION IN THIS INTERSECTION 126 00:04:30,640 --> 00:04:32,520 OF CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENTAL 127 00:04:32,520 --> 00:04:32,760 CHANGE? 128 00:04:32,760 --> 00:04:34,720 AND IF WE NEED TO INCLUDE THIS 129 00:04:34,720 --> 00:04:36,760 INTERSECTION, HOW DO WE DO IT? 130 00:04:36,760 --> 00:04:40,280 HOW DO WE REALLY SUPPORT THIS 131 00:04:40,280 --> 00:04:43,200 ENTERPRISE TO DEVELOP 132 00:04:43,200 --> 00:04:43,920 EVIDENCE-BASED CONTEXT-SPECIFIC 133 00:04:43,920 --> 00:04:45,120 EQUITABLE PROGRAMS TO SUPPORT 134 00:04:45,120 --> 00:04:46,600 THE DIET, HEALTH AND PUBLIC 135 00:04:46,600 --> 00:04:49,200 HEALTH AGENDA? 136 00:04:49,200 --> 00:04:50,920 NEXT SLIDE. 137 00:04:50,920 --> 00:04:52,440 THERE'S SOME CORE DEFINITIONS 138 00:04:52,440 --> 00:04:54,640 THAT WE'D LIKE TO INTRODUCE, 139 00:04:54,640 --> 00:04:55,080 DRIVERS. 140 00:04:55,080 --> 00:04:57,680 YOU'VE HEARD SOME OF THEM, THE 141 00:04:57,680 --> 00:04:58,920 FIRST TWO WORKSHOPS WE'RE GOING 142 00:04:58,920 --> 00:05:06,840 TO FOCUS ON FOOD SYSTEMS, BUT 143 00:05:06,840 --> 00:05:09,320 UNDERLINING IS INTERACTION OF 144 00:05:09,320 --> 00:05:10,200 COMPLEX BIOLOGICAL SYSTEM, 145 00:05:10,200 --> 00:05:11,320 INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL 146 00:05:11,320 --> 00:05:11,800 ENVIRONMENT. 147 00:05:11,800 --> 00:05:13,840 THIS PROJECT IS DESIGNED TO 148 00:05:13,840 --> 00:05:15,760 EXPLORE THAT ECOLOGY. 149 00:05:15,760 --> 00:05:16,720 THE MULTIPLE ECOLOGIES THAT WE 150 00:05:16,720 --> 00:05:19,400 NEED TO ADDRESS IN THIS CONTEXT. 151 00:05:19,400 --> 00:05:21,240 HEALTH IS A PERFECT EXAMPLE OF 152 00:05:21,240 --> 00:05:24,320 AN OUTCOME THAT'S IMPACTED BY 153 00:05:24,320 --> 00:05:25,640 THIS ECOLOGICAL PERSPECTIVE. 154 00:05:25,640 --> 00:05:28,960 OBVIOUSLY, HEALTH IS A RESULT OF 155 00:05:28,960 --> 00:05:31,000 A COMBINED INTERACTION BETWEEN 156 00:05:31,000 --> 00:05:32,880 THE INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL 157 00:05:32,880 --> 00:05:33,560 ENVIRONMENT. 158 00:05:33,560 --> 00:05:37,160 WITH REGARD TO THIS PROJECT, WE 159 00:05:37,160 --> 00:05:41,640 ARE MORE FOCUSED ON FOOD, FOOD 160 00:05:41,640 --> 00:05:43,720 BEING VEHICLES FOR NUTRIENTS AND 161 00:05:43,720 --> 00:05:45,360 BIOACTIVE COMPONENTS TO SUPPORT 162 00:05:45,360 --> 00:05:46,920 HEALTH. 163 00:05:46,920 --> 00:05:51,520 AND DIET BEING POSITIVE FOODS 164 00:05:51,520 --> 00:05:53,160 THAT WE CONSUME TO HELP SUPPORT 165 00:05:53,160 --> 00:05:53,600 HEALTH. 166 00:05:53,600 --> 00:05:54,960 WE MAKE A DISTINCTION HERE 167 00:05:54,960 --> 00:05:57,640 THOUGH THAT FOOD AND DIET IS NOT 168 00:05:57,640 --> 00:05:59,680 THE SAME AS NUTRITION. 169 00:05:59,680 --> 00:06:01,480 AND NUTRITIONAL STATUS AS A 170 00:06:01,480 --> 00:06:03,160 BIOLOGICAL VARIABLE THAT REALLY 171 00:06:03,160 --> 00:06:06,640 IS THE RESULT, ONLY A I -- 172 00:06:06,640 --> 00:06:09,680 ACHIEVED AS A RESULT OF A SERIES 173 00:06:09,680 --> 00:06:13,200 OF PROCESSES THAT STARTS WITH 174 00:06:13,200 --> 00:06:14,080 DIGESTION, INCLUDES METABOLISM, 175 00:06:14,080 --> 00:06:15,160 ABSORPTION, TRANSPORT, ET 176 00:06:15,160 --> 00:06:16,680 CETERA, ALL AFFECTED BY 177 00:06:16,680 --> 00:06:18,440 NUTRITIONAL STATUS AND AFFECT 178 00:06:18,440 --> 00:06:20,200 NUTRITIONAL STATUS. 179 00:06:20,200 --> 00:06:21,600 AND NUTRITIONAL STATUS IS BOTH 180 00:06:21,600 --> 00:06:24,120 INPUT AND OUTCOME OF HEALTH. 181 00:06:24,120 --> 00:06:24,800 THESE ARE IMPORTANT 182 00:06:24,800 --> 00:06:25,840 DISTINCTIONS, IT'S NOT THE SAME, 183 00:06:25,840 --> 00:06:27,280 THEY ARE NOT THE SAME AS FOOD. 184 00:06:27,280 --> 00:06:29,240 WE WANT TO MAKE SURE WE 185 00:06:29,240 --> 00:06:30,800 INTEGRATE THESE CONCEPTS INTO 186 00:06:30,800 --> 00:06:33,760 OUR APPROACHES HERE. 187 00:06:33,760 --> 00:06:34,640 NEXT SLIDE. 188 00:06:34,640 --> 00:06:36,160 WE TALK ABOUT THE ENVIRONMENT. 189 00:06:36,160 --> 00:06:38,240 THIS IS JUST A REPRESENTATION OF 190 00:06:38,240 --> 00:06:39,680 THE HOLISTIC VIEW OF THE 191 00:06:39,680 --> 00:06:40,880 ENVIRONMENT, RECOGNIZING THE 192 00:06:40,880 --> 00:06:42,280 ENVIRONMENT IS NOT JUST THE 193 00:06:42,280 --> 00:06:43,600 PHYSICAL ENVIRONMENT BUT 194 00:06:43,600 --> 00:06:45,560 MULTIPLE COMPONENTS OF THIS 195 00:06:45,560 --> 00:06:47,760 ENVIRONMENT INCLUDING HUMAN 196 00:06:47,760 --> 00:06:49,040 COMPONENTS, SOCIAL, BEHAVIORAL, 197 00:06:49,040 --> 00:06:54,800 ECONOMIC CONTEXT, ET CETERA. 198 00:06:54,800 --> 00:06:55,880 NEXT SLIDE. 199 00:06:55,880 --> 00:06:56,080 NEXT. 200 00:06:56,080 --> 00:06:57,960 SO IN TERMS OF THE HEALTH 201 00:06:57,960 --> 00:07:00,160 CONCEPT WE HEARD FROM WORKING 202 00:07:00,160 --> 00:07:01,560 GROUP 1 ABOUT THE FOCUS, THE 203 00:07:01,560 --> 00:07:02,640 THINGS THEY WILL FOCUS ON. 204 00:07:02,640 --> 00:07:05,720 ONE OF THE CORE ISSUES IS 205 00:07:05,720 --> 00:07:08,040 OBVIOUSLY BASIC CONCEPTS IN 206 00:07:08,040 --> 00:07:10,440 NUTRITION, AND DIET, FOOD AND 207 00:07:10,440 --> 00:07:11,560 NUTRITION SUPPLY. 208 00:07:11,560 --> 00:07:13,200 THIS CARTOON REPRESENTS THIS 209 00:07:13,200 --> 00:07:14,360 SORT OF VICIOUS CYCLE, WHAT 210 00:07:14,360 --> 00:07:17,000 HAPPENS WHEN THERE'S A 211 00:07:17,000 --> 00:07:21,520 PERTURBATION IN FOOD SYSTEMS AND 212 00:07:21,520 --> 00:07:22,360 FOOD/DIET SUPPLY HAVING AN 213 00:07:22,360 --> 00:07:28,280 IMPACT ON FOOD SECURITY. 214 00:07:28,280 --> 00:07:31,120 PERTURBATION HAS AN IMPACT ON 215 00:07:31,120 --> 00:07:37,160 FOOD INSECURITY, ADVERSE 216 00:07:37,160 --> 00:07:38,880 OUTCOMES ON MALNUTRITION. 217 00:07:38,880 --> 00:07:40,560 THAT ARROW REPRESENTS THE 218 00:07:40,560 --> 00:07:41,760 RECIPROCAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN 219 00:07:41,760 --> 00:07:42,720 CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENTAL 220 00:07:42,720 --> 00:07:44,040 CHANGE, AND THIS CORE 221 00:07:44,040 --> 00:07:47,760 RELATIONSHIP WITH THE FOOD 222 00:07:47,760 --> 00:07:49,000 SUPPLY. 223 00:07:49,000 --> 00:07:49,960 OBVIOUSLY THEY ARE AFFECTED BY 224 00:07:49,960 --> 00:07:50,880 EACH OTHER. 225 00:07:50,880 --> 00:07:52,400 NEXT SLIDE. 226 00:07:52,400 --> 00:07:54,240 THIS IS A REPRESENTATION OF THE 227 00:07:54,240 --> 00:07:56,880 REALITY OF THE WORLD WE LIVE IN. 228 00:07:56,880 --> 00:07:58,960 IT'S A COMPLEX REALITY, TOP LINE 229 00:07:58,960 --> 00:08:02,360 REPRESENTS OUR SORT OF 230 00:08:02,360 --> 00:08:04,640 TRADITIONAL NUTRITION COMMUNITY, 231 00:08:04,640 --> 00:08:07,480 FOCUS ON THIS EFFORTS TO ADDRESS 232 00:08:07,480 --> 00:08:07,840 UNDERNUTRITION. 233 00:08:07,840 --> 00:08:09,680 WE'RE NOW RECOGNIZING THE 234 00:08:09,680 --> 00:08:10,440 IMPORTANCE OF THE NUTRITION 235 00:08:10,440 --> 00:08:13,760 TRANSITION THAT WE HEARD ABOUT 236 00:08:13,760 --> 00:08:15,400 LAST WEEK, AND DIETARY PATTERNS 237 00:08:15,400 --> 00:08:16,040 GROUP. 238 00:08:16,040 --> 00:08:19,040 THE IMPACT OF THE IMPLICATIONS 239 00:08:19,040 --> 00:08:21,640 OF THE NUTRITION TRANSITION ON 240 00:08:21,640 --> 00:08:23,600 HEALTH, LIKE OBESITY, OVER/UNDER 241 00:08:23,600 --> 00:08:26,320 NUTRITION AND DOUBLE BURDEN. 242 00:08:26,320 --> 00:08:27,240 THAT'S HAPPENING AND 243 00:08:27,240 --> 00:08:29,720 SUPERIMPOSED ON A COMPLEX HEALTH 244 00:08:29,720 --> 00:08:31,920 CONTEXT INCLUDING INFECTIOUS 245 00:08:31,920 --> 00:08:34,240 DISEASE, FOOD-BORNE DISEASE, 246 00:08:34,240 --> 00:08:36,760 VECTOR-BORNE DISEASES, PANDEMIC 247 00:08:36,760 --> 00:08:38,360 INFECTIONS, HIV, TB, MALARIA, 248 00:08:38,360 --> 00:08:39,160 OBVIOUSLY COVID. 249 00:08:39,160 --> 00:08:40,720 AND THE NEXT INFECTION THAT'S 250 00:08:40,720 --> 00:08:42,760 GOING TO COME ALONG. 251 00:08:42,760 --> 00:08:45,720 AND EXPLODING EPIDEMICS OF 252 00:08:45,720 --> 00:08:46,680 NON-COMMUNICABLE DISEASES. 253 00:08:46,680 --> 00:08:50,680 THAT IN THE MIDDLE IS 254 00:08:50,680 --> 00:08:51,960 RECOGNITION OF THE BIOLOGY 255 00:08:51,960 --> 00:08:52,760 COMMON ACROSS ALL THESE 256 00:08:52,760 --> 00:08:54,520 CONDITIONS, THAT IS THE ROLE OF 257 00:08:54,520 --> 00:08:55,480 THE MICROBIOME AND INFLAMMATION. 258 00:08:55,480 --> 00:08:57,320 AT THE BOTTOM IS RECOGNITION 259 00:08:57,320 --> 00:09:01,040 THIS IS ALL HAPPENING ACROSS THE 260 00:09:01,040 --> 00:09:02,560 LIFE COURSE. 261 00:09:02,560 --> 00:09:04,880 WE OF COURSE RECOGNIZE THE 262 00:09:04,880 --> 00:09:09,360 IMPORTANCE OF THE DEVELOP 263 00:09:09,360 --> 00:09:10,880 MESSAGE, THE DOHaD HYPOTHESIS, 264 00:09:10,880 --> 00:09:12,080 BUT ALL THESE RELATIONSHIPS AND 265 00:09:12,080 --> 00:09:13,840 ALL OF THESE CONDITIONS ARE 266 00:09:13,840 --> 00:09:15,000 OCCURRING ACROSS THE LIFE 267 00:09:15,000 --> 00:09:18,120 COURSE, MANY OF THE PROGRAMS AND 268 00:09:18,120 --> 00:09:19,520 POLICIES THAT WE'RE TRYING TO 269 00:09:19,520 --> 00:09:23,200 INFORM TAKE A LIFE COURSE 270 00:09:23,200 --> 00:09:23,680 APPROACH. 271 00:09:23,680 --> 00:09:25,440 NEXT SLIDE. 272 00:09:25,440 --> 00:09:25,640 NEXT. 273 00:09:25,640 --> 00:09:26,640 SO, SPECIFIC REGARD TO FOOD 274 00:09:26,640 --> 00:09:28,200 SYSTEM THIS IS A REPRESENTATION 275 00:09:28,200 --> 00:09:29,720 OF THE ECOLOGY OF A FOOD SYSTEM. 276 00:09:29,720 --> 00:09:31,800 YOU'LL HEAR A LOT MORE ABOUT 277 00:09:31,800 --> 00:09:33,360 THIS TODAY. 278 00:09:33,360 --> 00:09:36,520 RECOGNITION OF THE IMPORTANCE OF 279 00:09:36,520 --> 00:09:38,600 THE HUMAN CONTRIBUTION, THE 280 00:09:38,600 --> 00:09:40,920 CONSUMER CHOICE, INFLUENCE OF 281 00:09:40,920 --> 00:09:42,960 CONSUMER CHOICE, PATTERNS, ALL 282 00:09:42,960 --> 00:09:43,960 THOSE FACTORS THAT INFLUENCE 283 00:09:43,960 --> 00:09:45,520 PRODUCTION CHOICE AND THE HEALTH 284 00:09:45,520 --> 00:09:50,320 OF A FOOD SYSTEM. 285 00:09:50,320 --> 00:09:51,080 NEXT SLIDE. 286 00:09:51,080 --> 00:09:56,760 WE WANT TO ACKNOWLEDGE THE 287 00:09:56,760 --> 00:09:58,640 IMPORTANT RECIPROCAL RECIPROCITY 288 00:09:58,640 --> 00:09:59,640 OF THIS RELATIONSHIP, CLIMATE, 289 00:09:59,640 --> 00:10:02,480 IT'S NOT JUST A ONE-DIRECTIONAL 290 00:10:02,480 --> 00:10:02,800 RELATIONSHIP. 291 00:10:02,800 --> 00:10:04,520 CLIMATE JUST -- IT'S NOT JUST A 292 00:10:04,520 --> 00:10:05,880 MATTER OF CLIMATE, ENVIRONMENTAL 293 00:10:05,880 --> 00:10:07,840 CHANGE AFFECTING FOOD SYSTEM BUT 294 00:10:07,840 --> 00:10:09,040 THE FOOD SYSTEMS HAVING AN 295 00:10:09,040 --> 00:10:11,080 IMPACT ON CLIMATE. 296 00:10:11,080 --> 00:10:12,760 IT'S NOT -- WE'RE LEARNING MORE 297 00:10:12,760 --> 00:10:13,840 ABOUT THIS, WE'LL HEAR MORE 298 00:10:13,840 --> 00:10:15,920 ABOUT THIS TODAY. 299 00:10:15,920 --> 00:10:17,600 AGAIN, THERE'S ALSO A TEMPORAL 300 00:10:17,600 --> 00:10:18,640 RELATIONSHIP WE HAVE TO 301 00:10:18,640 --> 00:10:20,600 CONSIDER, NOT JUST THE LIFE 302 00:10:20,600 --> 00:10:21,960 COURSE OF HUMANS BUT, YOU KNOW, 303 00:10:21,960 --> 00:10:24,720 WITH REGARD TO A CHANGING 304 00:10:24,720 --> 00:10:26,880 ENVIRONMENT, WE HAVE ACUTE 305 00:10:26,880 --> 00:10:28,640 EVENTS THAT OBVIOUSLY HAVE 306 00:10:28,640 --> 00:10:31,040 IMMEDIATE IMPACTS ON FOOD 307 00:10:31,040 --> 00:10:33,800 SYSTEM, AND -- BUT WE ALSO HAVE 308 00:10:33,800 --> 00:10:36,080 A LONG-TERM EFFECTS, LONG-TERM 309 00:10:36,080 --> 00:10:36,960 EFFECTS OF CHANGING ENVIRONMENT 310 00:10:36,960 --> 00:10:40,480 NEED TO BE FACTORED INTO OUR 311 00:10:40,480 --> 00:10:42,480 ANALYSIS. 312 00:10:42,480 --> 00:10:43,400 NEXT SLIDE. 313 00:10:43,400 --> 00:10:43,720 NEXT. 314 00:10:43,720 --> 00:10:45,040 SO, WHEN WE PUT THIS ALL 315 00:10:45,040 --> 00:10:46,520 TOGETHER WE BRING IT BACK TO 316 00:10:46,520 --> 00:10:47,480 THIS CONCEPT OF THE ECOLOGY, 317 00:10:47,480 --> 00:10:50,120 THIS IS JUST A REPRESENTATION OF 318 00:10:50,120 --> 00:10:51,120 THAT ECOLOGY. 319 00:10:51,120 --> 00:10:53,000 BUT BEING INCLUSIVE OF ALL THE 320 00:10:53,000 --> 00:10:56,560 THINGS WE TALKED ABOUT, BOTH THE 321 00:10:56,560 --> 00:10:57,800 INTERNAL BIOLOGY, GENETICS, 322 00:10:57,800 --> 00:10:59,960 HEALTH CONTEXT, ET CETERA, AND 323 00:10:59,960 --> 00:11:02,800 EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT, FOOD 324 00:11:02,800 --> 00:11:03,360 SYSTEMS, CLIMATE, PHYSICAL 325 00:11:03,360 --> 00:11:04,640 ENVIRONMENT, ET CETERA. 326 00:11:04,640 --> 00:11:08,760 AS WELL AS THE SOCIAL, ECONOMIC 327 00:11:08,760 --> 00:11:09,280 CONTEXT. 328 00:11:09,280 --> 00:11:10,040 IMPORTANT FACTORS THAT NEED TO 329 00:11:10,040 --> 00:11:11,480 BE CONSIDERED AS WE MOVE FORWARD 330 00:11:11,480 --> 00:11:12,880 IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF 331 00:11:12,880 --> 00:11:13,560 EVIDENCE-BASED PROGRAMS AND 332 00:11:13,560 --> 00:11:14,960 POLICIES AND HOW WE DO THAT IS 333 00:11:14,960 --> 00:11:18,120 PART OF OUR CHALLENGE HERE WITH 334 00:11:18,120 --> 00:11:18,680 ADVANTAGE. 335 00:11:18,680 --> 00:11:19,440 NEXT SLIDE. 336 00:11:19,440 --> 00:11:21,520 SO, WHAT IS ADVANTAGE? 337 00:11:21,520 --> 00:11:22,560 PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER, NEXT 338 00:11:22,560 --> 00:11:24,440 SLIDE, WHAT WE WANT TO BE CLEAR 339 00:11:24,440 --> 00:11:27,960 AS DREW MENTIONED WE'RE FOCUSED 340 00:11:27,960 --> 00:11:29,040 ON THE EVIDENCE. 341 00:11:29,040 --> 00:11:30,760 THIS IS OUR PRIMARY AUDIENCE, 342 00:11:30,760 --> 00:11:32,320 THE EXTRAMURAL RESEARCH 343 00:11:32,320 --> 00:11:32,600 COMMUNITY. 344 00:11:32,600 --> 00:11:34,000 WE WANT TO LEARN WHAT'S GOING 345 00:11:34,000 --> 00:11:34,240 ON. 346 00:11:34,240 --> 00:11:36,240 WE WANT TO LEARN WHAT EVIDENCE 347 00:11:36,240 --> 00:11:37,640 EXISTS, AND WE WANT TO LEARN 348 00:11:37,640 --> 00:11:38,920 WHERE THE GAPS ARE. 349 00:11:38,920 --> 00:11:40,680 SO THAT WE CAN SUPPORT A 350 00:11:40,680 --> 00:11:42,440 RESEARCH AGENDA THAT MOVES US 351 00:11:42,440 --> 00:11:42,680 FORWARD. 352 00:11:42,680 --> 00:11:44,520 WE WANT TO BE CLEAR WHAT WE'RE 353 00:11:44,520 --> 00:11:44,880 NOT DOING. 354 00:11:44,880 --> 00:11:46,920 WHAT WE'RE NOT DOING HERE IS 355 00:11:46,920 --> 00:11:49,240 WE'RE NOT MAKING DIETARY 356 00:11:49,240 --> 00:11:49,880 GUIDELINES, NOT DOING 357 00:11:49,880 --> 00:11:51,320 RECOMMENDATIONS OR ANYTHING OF 358 00:11:51,320 --> 00:11:52,880 THE SORT. 359 00:11:52,880 --> 00:11:54,600 WE'RE HOPEFULLY SUPPORTING ALL 360 00:11:54,600 --> 00:11:55,520 THOSE AGENCIES AND ORGANIZATIONS 361 00:11:55,520 --> 00:11:56,480 THAT DO. 362 00:11:56,480 --> 00:11:59,440 SO THAT'S OUR INTENTION HERE, TO 363 00:11:59,440 --> 00:12:00,760 BRING THE EVIDENCE TO BEAR, 364 00:12:00,760 --> 00:12:02,520 LEARN WHAT WE KNOW, WHAT WE 365 00:12:02,520 --> 00:12:03,840 DON'T KNOW, HELP SUPPORT THOSE 366 00:12:03,840 --> 00:12:06,000 EFFORTS THAT ARE DEVELOPING 367 00:12:06,000 --> 00:12:07,680 EVIDENCE-BASED GUIDELINES. 368 00:12:07,680 --> 00:12:09,080 NEXT SLIDE. 369 00:12:09,080 --> 00:12:10,960 THIS REPRESENTS THE ORGANIZATION 370 00:12:10,960 --> 00:12:16,000 OF THE ADVANTAGE PROJECT, DREW 371 00:12:16,000 --> 00:12:26,720 MENTIONED OUR TEAM, AND NICHD 372 00:12:26,720 --> 00:12:27,320 TEAM. 373 00:12:27,320 --> 00:12:29,560 MARY ROSCO IS A KEY LINCHPIN OF 374 00:12:29,560 --> 00:12:34,280 WORKING GROUP 3. 375 00:12:34,280 --> 00:12:35,760 EACH HAS REPRESENTATION, NONE OF 376 00:12:35,760 --> 00:12:36,640 THIS HAPPENS WITHOUT THEM, AS 377 00:12:36,640 --> 00:12:37,240 DREW NOTED. 378 00:12:37,240 --> 00:12:39,120 AT THE BEGINNING WE CONVENED 379 00:12:39,120 --> 00:12:41,400 SCIENTIFIC STEERING COMMITTEE 380 00:12:41,400 --> 00:12:43,920 THAT CONSISTED OF MULTIPLE 381 00:12:43,920 --> 00:12:45,840 AGENCIES INCLUDING USDA, CDC, 382 00:12:45,840 --> 00:12:48,200 USAID, FDA, ET CETERA, ALL THOSE 383 00:12:48,200 --> 00:12:49,720 AGENCIES INVOLVED IN THIS 384 00:12:49,720 --> 00:12:51,360 ENTERPRISE OF DEVELOPING 385 00:12:51,360 --> 00:12:52,320 EVIDENCE-BASED PROGRAMS AND 386 00:12:52,320 --> 00:12:54,040 POLICIES, SO THAT BY THIS INPUT 387 00:12:54,040 --> 00:12:56,160 AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE PROJECT 388 00:12:56,160 --> 00:12:59,360 CONCEPTUALIZATION OF THE PROJECT 389 00:12:59,360 --> 00:13:00,920 AND IDENTIFICATION OF SOME FOLKS 390 00:13:00,920 --> 00:13:02,160 AND CHAIRS YOU'LL MEET TODAY. 391 00:13:02,160 --> 00:13:04,200 THE WORK OF THE PROJECT IS DONE 392 00:13:04,200 --> 00:13:07,160 BY THE WORK GROUPS, YOU'LL LEARN 393 00:13:07,160 --> 00:13:10,200 TODAY FROM WORKING GROUP 3 LED 394 00:13:10,200 --> 00:13:11,600 BY ROBIN WHITE, VIRGINIA TECH, 395 00:13:11,600 --> 00:13:13,640 WHAT THEY ARE DOING AND WHERE 396 00:13:13,640 --> 00:13:16,240 THEY ARE GOING WITH THIS WORK 397 00:13:16,240 --> 00:13:16,560 GROUP. 398 00:13:16,560 --> 00:13:17,680 NEXT SLIDE. 399 00:13:17,680 --> 00:13:18,440 WHEN WE PUT THIS APPROACH 400 00:13:18,440 --> 00:13:21,400 TOGETHER THIS IS HOW THE PROJECT 401 00:13:21,400 --> 00:13:22,400 IS ORGANIZED. 402 00:13:22,400 --> 00:13:25,560 WE RECOGNIZE THESE THREE 403 00:13:25,560 --> 00:13:27,200 BUCKETS, THEY ARE OVERLAPPING 404 00:13:27,200 --> 00:13:27,440 BUCKETS. 405 00:13:27,440 --> 00:13:28,000 WE RECOGNIZE THAT. 406 00:13:28,000 --> 00:13:31,120 PART OF THE EFFORT OF THE 407 00:13:31,120 --> 00:13:32,440 WORKSHOPS IS TO DISCUSS WHERE 408 00:13:32,440 --> 00:13:33,640 THE OVERLAPS OCCUR, MAKE SURE 409 00:13:33,640 --> 00:13:35,080 WE'RE COVERING THINGS THAT WE 410 00:13:35,080 --> 00:13:36,960 NEED TO COVER, AND MAKE SURE 411 00:13:36,960 --> 00:13:39,040 WE'RE NOT BEING REDUNDANT IN OUR 412 00:13:39,040 --> 00:13:39,440 COVERAGE. 413 00:13:39,440 --> 00:13:41,400 SO THAT'S THE POINT OF THESE 414 00:13:41,400 --> 00:13:43,320 WORKSHOPS, TO SUPPORT THESE 415 00:13:43,320 --> 00:13:44,720 WORKING GROUPS, AND THEIR 416 00:13:44,720 --> 00:13:46,480 INTERACTIONS WITH EACH OTHER. 417 00:13:46,480 --> 00:13:49,400 WE RECOGNIZE THOSE THREE BUCKETS 418 00:13:49,400 --> 00:13:51,280 ARE BEING IMPACTED BY CLIMATE, 419 00:13:51,280 --> 00:13:53,080 ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE, THAT'S ALL 420 00:13:53,080 --> 00:13:56,240 BEEN BUILT INTO THESE ANALYSES. 421 00:13:56,240 --> 00:13:57,520 WHEN WE COLLECT ALL THIS DATA 422 00:13:57,520 --> 00:13:59,360 AND COLLECT ALL THIS NEW 423 00:13:59,360 --> 00:14:00,680 EVIDENCE, WHAT DO DO YOU WITH 424 00:14:00,680 --> 00:14:01,040 IT? 425 00:14:01,040 --> 00:14:03,640 HOW DO YOU THEN TAKE THIS AND 426 00:14:03,640 --> 00:14:04,600 MOVE FORWARD WITH THE RESEARCH 427 00:14:04,600 --> 00:14:06,400 AGENDA AND SO IT'S A VERY 428 00:14:06,400 --> 00:14:07,800 COMPLEX SET OF QUESTIONS. 429 00:14:07,800 --> 00:14:09,880 IT'S A COMPLEX SET OF DATA. 430 00:14:09,880 --> 00:14:12,840 THERE'S LOTS OF DIFFERENT KINDS 431 00:14:12,840 --> 00:14:13,600 OF INDICATORS, BIOMARKERS, 432 00:14:13,600 --> 00:14:15,360 WHATEVER THE TERM YOU WANT TO 433 00:14:15,360 --> 00:14:17,080 USE, AND THERE'S DIFFERENT 434 00:14:17,080 --> 00:14:17,560 ANALYTICAL APPROACHES. 435 00:14:17,560 --> 00:14:19,400 THAT'S THE WORK OF WORKING GROUP 436 00:14:19,400 --> 00:14:22,240 4, YOU'LL HEAR FROM ON MAY 11. 437 00:14:22,240 --> 00:14:26,520 HOW DO WE TAKE THIS STUFF AND 438 00:14:26,520 --> 00:14:27,400 DESIGN PROJECTS AND 439 00:14:27,400 --> 00:14:29,160 SURVEILLANCE, ASSESS APPROACHES 440 00:14:29,160 --> 00:14:31,760 TO CAPTURE THIS COMPLEX SYSTEM? 441 00:14:31,760 --> 00:14:36,280 AND THE LAST BIT IS WORKING 442 00:14:36,280 --> 00:14:38,240 GROUP 5, CONVENED ON JUNE 12, 443 00:14:38,240 --> 00:14:39,040 TRANSLATION AND IMPLEMENTATION. 444 00:14:39,040 --> 00:14:41,560 HOW DO WE TAKE THIS NEW EVIDENCE 445 00:14:41,560 --> 00:14:42,840 AND TRANSLATING IT IN A 446 00:14:42,840 --> 00:14:44,960 MEANINGFUL WAY TO SUPPORT THE 447 00:14:44,960 --> 00:14:50,200 DEVELOPMENT OF EQUITABLE, SAFE, 448 00:14:50,200 --> 00:14:50,960 EFFICACIOUS, CONTEXT-SPECIFIC 449 00:14:50,960 --> 00:14:51,560 PROGRAMS, PROGRAMS, 450 00:14:51,560 --> 00:14:52,600 RECOMMENDATION, GUIDANCE, ET 451 00:14:52,600 --> 00:14:55,040 CETERA, TO SUPPORT THIS DIET AND 452 00:14:55,040 --> 00:14:55,640 HEALTH AGENDA? 453 00:14:55,640 --> 00:14:57,200 IT'S A COMPLEX SET OF ISSUES. 454 00:14:57,200 --> 00:14:58,720 WE HAVE TO BE CAREFUL HOW WE 455 00:14:58,720 --> 00:14:59,600 TRANSLATE IT. 456 00:14:59,600 --> 00:15:01,360 WE HAVE TO BE CAREFUL ABOUT HOW 457 00:15:01,360 --> 00:15:02,680 WE MESSAGE IT. 458 00:15:02,680 --> 00:15:05,440 AND HOW WE COMMUNICATE WITH OUR 459 00:15:05,440 --> 00:15:07,400 PEERS, WITHIN THIS COMMUNITY AND 460 00:15:07,400 --> 00:15:08,800 THE EXTERNAL COMMUNITY THAT 461 00:15:08,800 --> 00:15:11,200 WE'RE SERVING. 462 00:15:11,200 --> 00:15:11,520 NEXT SLIDE. 463 00:15:11,520 --> 00:15:13,960 THIS IS JUST A LIST OF THE 464 00:15:13,960 --> 00:15:15,640 WORKING GROUPS AND CHAIRS. 465 00:15:15,640 --> 00:15:16,800 YOU'VE MET WORKING GROUPS 1 AND 466 00:15:16,800 --> 00:15:17,360 2 ALREADY. 467 00:15:17,360 --> 00:15:19,440 TODAY YOU'LL HEAR FROM WORKING 468 00:15:19,440 --> 00:15:19,840 GROUP 3. 469 00:15:19,840 --> 00:15:22,400 AND WE'RE VERY MUCH LOOKING 470 00:15:22,400 --> 00:15:23,200 FORWARD TO TODAY'S PRESENTATION. 471 00:15:23,200 --> 00:15:25,840 I WANT TO THANK EVERYBODY FOR 472 00:15:25,840 --> 00:15:27,040 SUPPORT AND ESPECIALLY THANK AND 473 00:15:27,040 --> 00:15:29,320 ACKNOWLEDGE WORKING GROUP 474 00:15:29,320 --> 00:15:30,840 MEMBERS FROM ALL THE WORKING 475 00:15:30,840 --> 00:15:32,480 GROUPS, VERY BUSY PEOPLE AND 476 00:15:32,480 --> 00:15:33,680 WE'RE GRATEFUL FOR THEIR 477 00:15:33,680 --> 00:15:34,480 WILLINGNESS TO TAKE THIS 478 00:15:34,480 --> 00:15:36,280 COMPLICATED SET OF QUESTIONS ON. 479 00:15:36,280 --> 00:15:39,240 SO WITH THAT, I THINK WE'LL MOVE 480 00:15:39,240 --> 00:15:40,920 ON AND INTRODUCE DR. WHITE AND 481 00:15:40,920 --> 00:15:51,160 MOVE INTO THE CONTENT OF TODAY'S 482 00:15:51,160 --> 00:15:55,800 WORKSHOP. 483 00:15:55,800 --> 00:16:03,040 THANK YOU. 484 00:16:03,040 --> 00:16:03,680 >> THANKS FOR THE INTRODUCTION, 485 00:16:03,680 --> 00:16:04,240 PROVIDING PERSPECTIVE AND 486 00:16:04,240 --> 00:16:04,800 BACKGROUND ON THIS ENGAGING 487 00:16:04,800 --> 00:16:05,040 PROJECT. 488 00:16:05,040 --> 00:16:05,560 I'M HERE REPRESENTING OUR 489 00:16:05,560 --> 00:16:06,640 WORKING GROUP 3, WHICH IS 490 00:16:06,640 --> 00:16:07,840 FOCUSING ON THE IMPACT OF 491 00:16:07,840 --> 00:16:10,400 CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE 492 00:16:10,400 --> 00:16:12,440 ON FOOD SYSTEMS. 493 00:16:12,440 --> 00:16:19,320 WHEN WE THINK ABOUT THE PROCESS 494 00:16:19,320 --> 00:16:20,960 OF THIS ADVANTAGE EFFORT, I 495 00:16:20,960 --> 00:16:24,160 THINK IN TERMS OF OUTCOMES AND 496 00:16:24,160 --> 00:16:24,640 ACTIVITIES. 497 00:16:24,640 --> 00:16:27,680 OUR GROUP TOWARD THE ADVANTAGE 498 00:16:27,680 --> 00:16:28,760 GOAL OF IDENTIFYING THIS 499 00:16:28,760 --> 00:16:30,080 KNOWLEDGE AND RESEARCH GAPS TO 500 00:16:30,080 --> 00:16:31,280 TRY AND ADDRESS THE EMERGING 501 00:16:31,280 --> 00:16:35,440 NEEDS OF THE INTERSECTION OF 502 00:16:35,440 --> 00:16:36,840 FOOD, CLIMATE, SUSTAINABILITY, 503 00:16:36,840 --> 00:16:38,480 HAS BEGUN THROUGH WORKING GROUP 504 00:16:38,480 --> 00:16:39,040 DISCUSSION. 505 00:16:39,040 --> 00:16:40,480 THESE STARTED WITH SCOPING THE 506 00:16:40,480 --> 00:16:42,800 FOCUS OF OUR WORKING GROUP. 507 00:16:42,800 --> 00:16:46,400 WE WENT THROUGH A NUMBER OF 508 00:16:46,400 --> 00:16:50,760 TALKS ABOUT WHAT AN OUTLINE 509 00:16:50,760 --> 00:16:52,080 MIGHT LOOK LIKE TO TRANSLATE 510 00:16:52,080 --> 00:16:53,840 THAT SCOPE INTO PRACTICE BOTH 511 00:16:53,840 --> 00:16:57,640 FOR OUR WORKSHOP TODAY AND FOR 512 00:16:57,640 --> 00:16:59,840 THE EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF A 513 00:16:59,840 --> 00:17:01,160 SYNTHESIS PAPER TRYING TO TIE 514 00:17:01,160 --> 00:17:02,600 THIS SET OF GAPS AND 515 00:17:02,600 --> 00:17:03,600 OPPORTUNITIES TOGETHER TO REPORT 516 00:17:03,600 --> 00:17:06,640 OUR CURRENT STATUS OF KNOWLEDGE 517 00:17:06,640 --> 00:17:08,280 IN THIS SPACE. 518 00:17:08,280 --> 00:17:10,600 DAN WENT THROUGH THESE SO I'LL 519 00:17:10,600 --> 00:17:13,880 SKIP THROUGH QUICKLY. 520 00:17:13,880 --> 00:17:16,040 REMINDER, WE SIT AT THIS THIRD 521 00:17:16,040 --> 00:17:18,320 STEP AMONG WORKING GROUPS, 522 00:17:18,320 --> 00:17:22,280 TRYING TO DISCUSS THIS CLIMATE 523 00:17:22,280 --> 00:17:23,800 ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE AND FOOD 524 00:17:23,800 --> 00:17:25,440 SYSTEM INTERFACE. 525 00:17:25,440 --> 00:17:27,560 WHEN THINKING ABOUT THAT AND 526 00:17:27,560 --> 00:17:29,280 TRYING TO IDENTIFY THE SCOPE OF 527 00:17:29,280 --> 00:17:32,200 OUR WORKING GROUP, WE REALLY DID 528 00:17:32,200 --> 00:17:35,080 SORT OUT THAT WE HAVE A COUPLE 529 00:17:35,080 --> 00:17:36,520 DIFFERENT ELEMENTS THAT ARE 530 00:17:36,520 --> 00:17:39,640 CRITICAL FOR OUR WORKING GROUP 531 00:17:39,640 --> 00:17:42,640 TO DEFINE OR CONSIDER, WHEN 532 00:17:42,640 --> 00:17:45,240 WE'RE EXPRESSING THIS AREA AS A 533 00:17:45,240 --> 00:17:46,320 FRAMEWORK FOR IDENTIFYING 534 00:17:46,320 --> 00:17:48,320 CRITICAL RESEARCH GAPS. 535 00:17:48,320 --> 00:17:49,840 AND NEXT STEPS. 536 00:17:49,840 --> 00:17:52,160 THE FIRST WAS THE CONCEPT OF 537 00:17:52,160 --> 00:17:52,920 CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENTAL 538 00:17:52,920 --> 00:17:55,600 CHANGE, AND SO AS WE ORGANIZED 539 00:17:55,600 --> 00:17:58,160 OUR DISCUSSION TODAY, THAT WILL 540 00:17:58,160 --> 00:18:00,040 BE A THEME THAT WE'LL FOCUS ON, 541 00:18:00,040 --> 00:18:02,760 IS THE FRAMEWORK THAT WE'RE 542 00:18:02,760 --> 00:18:04,560 USING TO TRY AND CHARACTERIZE 543 00:18:04,560 --> 00:18:05,960 CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENTAL 544 00:18:05,960 --> 00:18:06,160 CHANGE. 545 00:18:06,160 --> 00:18:07,920 THIS CAN BE DEFINED VERY 546 00:18:07,920 --> 00:18:10,760 NARROWLY OR IT CAN BE DEFINED 547 00:18:10,760 --> 00:18:11,080 QUITE BROADLY. 548 00:18:11,080 --> 00:18:12,600 AND THANKS TO SOME WORKING GROUP 549 00:18:12,600 --> 00:18:15,240 MEMBERS WE HAVE A NICE FRAMEWORK 550 00:18:15,240 --> 00:18:18,240 TO BE ABLE TO ORGANIZE SOME OF 551 00:18:18,240 --> 00:18:20,520 THOSE IMPACTS IN A LITTLE BIT OF 552 00:18:20,520 --> 00:18:23,400 A MORE COHESIVE MANNER SO WE CAN 553 00:18:23,400 --> 00:18:26,080 DIRECTLY MAP HOW THEY AFFECT 554 00:18:26,080 --> 00:18:28,120 FOOD SYSTEMS. 555 00:18:28,120 --> 00:18:31,760 WE ALSO THEN HAVE KIND OF THIS 556 00:18:31,760 --> 00:18:36,520 CHALLENGE OF THESE CYCLIC 557 00:18:36,520 --> 00:18:38,360 IMPACTS AT THE NEXUS, THIS HAS 558 00:18:38,360 --> 00:18:40,920 BEEN HIGHLIGHTED BUT THE IDEA 559 00:18:40,920 --> 00:18:42,400 THAT FOOD SYSTEMS CONTRIBUTE TO 560 00:18:42,400 --> 00:18:45,360 CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE 561 00:18:45,360 --> 00:18:47,600 JUST AS THEY ARE AFFECTED BY 562 00:18:47,600 --> 00:18:50,520 THESE FACTORS, AND SO AS WE 563 00:18:50,520 --> 00:18:52,840 CONSIDER THE FUTURE OF CLIMATE 564 00:18:52,840 --> 00:18:54,160 SMART AGRICULTURE WHICH 565 00:18:54,160 --> 00:18:56,480 CONTRIBUTES TO A SUSTAINABLE AND 566 00:18:56,480 --> 00:18:58,440 SECURE FOOD SUPPLY, WE HAVE TO 567 00:18:58,440 --> 00:19:02,360 THINK ABOUT NOT ONLY HOW WE 568 00:19:02,360 --> 00:19:03,240 ADDRESS ENVIRONMENTAL CHALLENGES 569 00:19:03,240 --> 00:19:07,960 EXISTING TODAY BUT HOW WE MIGHT 570 00:19:07,960 --> 00:19:10,280 ADAPT AGRICULTURE AS THE CLIMATE 571 00:19:10,280 --> 00:19:11,560 CONTINUES TO CHANGE. 572 00:19:11,560 --> 00:19:13,520 SO IN TERMS OF OUR CORE 573 00:19:13,520 --> 00:19:15,280 QUESTIONS, WE HAVE ONE FOCUSED 574 00:19:15,280 --> 00:19:17,240 ON HOW CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENTAL 575 00:19:17,240 --> 00:19:18,160 CHANGE AFFECTS FOOD SYSTEMS, AND 576 00:19:18,160 --> 00:19:21,440 WHAT DOES THIS SORT OF 577 00:19:21,440 --> 00:19:23,920 RECIPROCAL RELATIONSHIP LOOK 578 00:19:23,920 --> 00:19:24,680 LIKE BETWEEN CLIMATE 579 00:19:24,680 --> 00:19:26,800 ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE AND FOOD 580 00:19:26,800 --> 00:19:28,440 SYSTEMS, AND WE'VE BEEN TAPPED 581 00:19:28,440 --> 00:19:30,160 WITH REALLY FOCUSED ON WHAT 582 00:19:30,160 --> 00:19:31,800 CHOICES ARE AVAILABLE AT THE 583 00:19:31,800 --> 00:19:34,560 FOOD SYSTEM LEVEL TO SUPPORT 584 00:19:34,560 --> 00:19:36,120 THESE TIMES OF INTERVENTIONS. 585 00:19:36,120 --> 00:19:38,280 THE THEME OF CHOICE IS ANOTHER 586 00:19:38,280 --> 00:19:39,920 ELEMENT THAT WE'LL DISCUSS TODAY 587 00:19:39,920 --> 00:19:43,200 AS WE LOOK AT EXAMPLES OF 588 00:19:43,200 --> 00:19:47,000 DIFFERENT FOOD SYSTEMS AND ANDE 589 00:19:47,000 --> 00:19:50,720 TYPES OF CHOICES THAT CAN BE 590 00:19:50,720 --> 00:19:51,320 IMPLEMENTED. 591 00:19:51,320 --> 00:19:52,600 IN TERMS OF THEMATIC AREAS, WE 592 00:19:52,600 --> 00:19:54,680 HAVE A FRAMEWORK FOR CLIMATE AND 593 00:19:54,680 --> 00:19:57,560 ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE THAT 594 00:19:57,560 --> 00:19:58,960 BECOMES FAIRLY IMPORTANT TO THE 595 00:19:58,960 --> 00:20:01,680 REST OF OUR DISCUSSION TODAY SO 596 00:20:01,680 --> 00:20:04,080 WE'LL BEGIN WITH THAT. 597 00:20:04,080 --> 00:20:08,120 WE'LL ALSO HAVE A THEMATIC AREA 598 00:20:08,120 --> 00:20:10,520 AROUND EXISTING DATA AT THIS 599 00:20:10,520 --> 00:20:11,680 CYCLIC INTERSECTION OF CLIMATE 600 00:20:11,680 --> 00:20:13,400 ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE AND FOOD 601 00:20:13,400 --> 00:20:13,720 SYSTEMS. 602 00:20:13,720 --> 00:20:16,880 WE'LL TALK A LITTLE BIT ABOUT 603 00:20:16,880 --> 00:20:19,560 THE IMPLICATIONS OF INTERVENTION 604 00:20:19,560 --> 00:20:20,560 CHOICES, CHOICES AVAILABLE AT 605 00:20:20,560 --> 00:20:23,600 THE FOOD SYSTEM LEVEL TO TRY AND 606 00:20:23,600 --> 00:20:25,880 ADDRESS AND ADAPT TO CLIMATE 607 00:20:25,880 --> 00:20:26,960 ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE, AND AS WE 608 00:20:26,960 --> 00:20:29,040 MOVE THROUGH THIS WE CONTINUE TO 609 00:20:29,040 --> 00:20:34,280 TRY AND DEFINE GAPS AND RESEARCH 610 00:20:34,280 --> 00:20:34,600 NEEDS. 611 00:20:34,600 --> 00:20:36,080 I'LL HIGHLIGHT, WE HAVE FOUR 612 00:20:36,080 --> 00:20:38,680 WORKING GROUP SPEAKERS TODAY. 613 00:20:38,680 --> 00:20:42,840 WE'RE JOINED BY A GUEST SPEAKER 614 00:20:42,840 --> 00:20:45,720 WHO HAS GRACIOUSLY AGREED TO 615 00:20:45,720 --> 00:20:48,840 JOIN US DESPITE IMPENDING 616 00:20:48,840 --> 00:20:50,920 RETIREMENT, FROM OREGON STATE 617 00:20:50,920 --> 00:20:52,240 UNIVERSITY, OUR SECOND SPEAKER 618 00:20:52,240 --> 00:20:56,080 TODAY, SHARING SOME OF HIS 619 00:20:56,080 --> 00:20:58,600 PERSPECTIVES HOW WE CAN CONSIDER 620 00:20:58,600 --> 00:21:00,360 ECONOMIC FRAMEWORKS WITHIN THIS 621 00:21:00,360 --> 00:21:01,640 DISCUSSION AREA. 622 00:21:01,640 --> 00:21:04,840 OUR WORKING GROUP SPEAKERS WILL 623 00:21:04,840 --> 00:21:09,760 INCLUDE MYSELF, DR. ZISKA FROM 624 00:21:09,760 --> 00:21:14,040 COLUMBIA, MATT SMITH, AND 625 00:21:14,040 --> 00:21:15,440 KATHRYN FIORELLA. 626 00:21:15,440 --> 00:21:16,320 WE HAVE OTHER GROUP MEMBERS 627 00:21:16,320 --> 00:21:17,720 JOINING US TODAY. 628 00:21:17,720 --> 00:21:19,080 UNFORTUNATELY THIS WILL BE THE 629 00:21:19,080 --> 00:21:21,480 EXTENT OF OUR SPEAKER LIST. 630 00:21:21,480 --> 00:21:28,040 IN TERMS OF OUR TASKS FOR THIS 631 00:21:28,040 --> 00:21:29,800 WORKSHOP, WE'LL REVIEW SCOPE, 632 00:21:29,800 --> 00:21:31,320 OUTLINE WE PROPOSED FOR OUR 633 00:21:31,320 --> 00:21:32,000 WORKING GROUP. 634 00:21:32,000 --> 00:21:34,600 WE WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE THROUGH 635 00:21:34,600 --> 00:21:38,080 REFINING SOME FRAMEWORKS USED TO 636 00:21:38,080 --> 00:21:39,520 DISCUSS THE INTERSECTION OF 637 00:21:39,520 --> 00:21:41,720 CLIMATE ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE AND 638 00:21:41,720 --> 00:21:43,600 OUR FOOD SYSTEMS, AND THEN 639 00:21:43,600 --> 00:21:45,280 THROUGHOUT THE DISCUSSION WE'LL 640 00:21:45,280 --> 00:21:48,400 ATTEMPT TO EXPLORE THESE VARIOUS 641 00:21:48,400 --> 00:21:53,080 LINKAGES AS OVERLAPS WITH OTHER 642 00:21:53,080 --> 00:21:53,440 WORKING GROUPS. 643 00:21:53,440 --> 00:22:01,200 IN TERMS OF THE LAYOUT FOR 644 00:22:01,200 --> 00:22:02,400 TODAY, WHICH ALSO ROUGHLY ALIGNS 645 00:22:02,400 --> 00:22:04,360 WITH THE LAYOUT OF OUR INTENDED 646 00:22:04,360 --> 00:22:05,160 OUTLINE WE'RE BEGINNING 647 00:22:05,160 --> 00:22:05,880 OBVIOUSLY WITH THIS INTRODUCTION 648 00:22:05,880 --> 00:22:09,720 TO THE WORKING GROUP AND TO THE 649 00:22:09,720 --> 00:22:12,480 SCOPE FOR OUR PARTICULAR 650 00:22:12,480 --> 00:22:13,440 SECTION. 651 00:22:13,440 --> 00:22:15,520 OUR NEXT SPEAKER WILL ADDRESS 652 00:22:15,520 --> 00:22:19,040 THIS FRAMEWORK FOR DEFINING 653 00:22:19,040 --> 00:22:19,680 CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENTAL 654 00:22:19,680 --> 00:22:20,080 CHANGES. 655 00:22:20,080 --> 00:22:26,040 WITH WE'LL THEN HEAR ABOUT THE 656 00:22:26,040 --> 00:22:26,880 ECONOMICS OF CLIMATE AND 657 00:22:26,880 --> 00:22:28,000 ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE IN FOOD 658 00:22:28,000 --> 00:22:31,520 SYSTEMS AND WE'LL HAVE MYSELF, 659 00:22:31,520 --> 00:22:33,960 DR. FIORELLA DISCUSSING CLIMATE 660 00:22:33,960 --> 00:22:37,080 AND ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGES AND 661 00:22:37,080 --> 00:22:39,040 EXAMPLE FOOD SYSTEMS, 662 00:22:39,040 --> 00:22:43,840 TERRESTRIAL ANIMAL SYSTEMS, 663 00:22:43,840 --> 00:22:45,040 AQUATIC, PLANT-BASED SYSTEMS. 664 00:22:45,040 --> 00:22:46,480 WE'LL FINISH OUR FORMAL 665 00:22:46,480 --> 00:22:50,080 PRESENTATION WITH A SHORT 666 00:22:50,080 --> 00:22:57,240 DISCUSSION OF THE TYPES OF 667 00:22:57,240 --> 00:22:58,120 FRAMEWORKS TO TALK ABOUT 668 00:22:58,120 --> 00:22:59,040 INTERVENTION AND TYPES OF 669 00:22:59,040 --> 00:23:03,560 CHOICES THAT CAN BE USED TO 670 00:23:03,560 --> 00:23:04,680 ADDRESS CLIMATE AND 671 00:23:04,680 --> 00:23:06,160 ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE AND ADAPT 672 00:23:06,160 --> 00:23:08,080 OUR AGRICULTURE AND FOOD SYSTEMS 673 00:23:08,080 --> 00:23:12,560 TO CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENTAL 674 00:23:12,560 --> 00:23:13,560 CHANGES. 675 00:23:13,560 --> 00:23:15,760 WE'LL HAVE OPPORTUNITY FOR 676 00:23:15,760 --> 00:23:18,800 QUESTIONS AND DISCUSSION 677 00:23:18,800 --> 00:23:19,680 INTERSPERSED THROUGHOUT. 678 00:23:19,680 --> 00:23:21,080 THE FIRST TIME AFTER DR. SMITH 679 00:23:21,080 --> 00:23:24,280 TALKS ABOUT THE FRAMEWORK FOR 680 00:23:24,280 --> 00:23:25,240 DEFINING CLIMATE ENVIRONMENTAL 681 00:23:25,240 --> 00:23:27,320 CHANGES, A SECOND OPPORTUNITY 682 00:23:27,320 --> 00:23:30,280 FOR DISCUSSION AFTER DR. ANTLE 683 00:23:30,280 --> 00:23:35,560 PRESENTS SOME FEEDBACK ABOUT THE 684 00:23:35,560 --> 00:23:36,320 FRAMEWORKS FOR CONSIDERING 685 00:23:36,320 --> 00:23:38,040 ECONOMICKING, IMPACTS ON FOOD 686 00:23:38,040 --> 00:23:40,560 SYSTEMS, AND A FINAL OPPORTUNITY 687 00:23:40,560 --> 00:23:42,000 FOR QUESTIONS AND DISCUSSION AT 688 00:23:42,000 --> 00:23:45,200 THE END OF OUR SESSION TODAY 689 00:23:45,200 --> 00:23:48,240 AFTER WE'VE PRESENTED SOME OF 690 00:23:48,240 --> 00:23:49,440 THE EXISTENT KNOWLEDGE IN 691 00:23:49,440 --> 00:23:52,040 INDIVIDUAL FOOD SYSTEMS AND 692 00:23:52,040 --> 00:23:54,480 FRAMEWORK FOR DISCUSSING 693 00:23:54,480 --> 00:23:55,320 ADAPTATION AND CHOICE. 694 00:23:55,320 --> 00:23:57,480 AT THIS TIME, I WILL GO AHEAD 695 00:23:57,480 --> 00:24:00,800 AND TURN IT OVER TO DR. MATT 696 00:24:00,800 --> 00:24:02,560 SMITH AND HARVARD TO BE ABLE TO 697 00:24:02,560 --> 00:24:04,000 PROVIDE AN OVERVIEW OF THE 698 00:24:04,000 --> 00:24:07,360 FRAMEWORK THAT WE EXPECT TO USE 699 00:24:07,360 --> 00:24:09,440 FOR DEFINING CLIMATE AND 700 00:24:09,440 --> 00:24:10,160 ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGES. 701 00:24:10,160 --> 00:24:13,280 MATT, IF YOU WANT TO GO AHEAD 702 00:24:13,280 --> 00:24:15,280 AND SET YOURSELF UP TO SHARE 703 00:24:15,280 --> 00:24:16,480 YOUR SCREEN I LOOK FORWARD TO 704 00:24:16,480 --> 00:24:26,800 HEARING FROM YOU. 705 00:24:30,000 --> 00:24:31,480 >> GREAT. 706 00:24:31,480 --> 00:24:34,000 CAN YOU HEAR ME, ROBIN? 707 00:24:34,000 --> 00:24:35,840 >> YES. 708 00:24:35,840 --> 00:24:36,120 >> GREAT. 709 00:24:36,120 --> 00:24:36,720 SO, YEAH, I'M DR. MATT SMITH, 710 00:24:36,720 --> 00:24:37,240 RESEARCH SCIENTIST AT THE 711 00:24:37,240 --> 00:24:37,880 HARVARD SCHOOL OF PUBLIC HEALTH, 712 00:24:37,880 --> 00:24:38,400 HAPPY TO TALK TO EVERYONE. 713 00:24:38,400 --> 00:24:39,040 YEAH, MY ROLE TODAY IS DESCRIBE 714 00:24:39,040 --> 00:24:39,680 THIS FRAMEWORK FOR HOW WE HAVE 715 00:24:39,680 --> 00:24:40,480 DEFINED CLIMATE AND 716 00:24:40,480 --> 00:24:41,960 ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE, HOW WE'VE 717 00:24:41,960 --> 00:24:46,360 GOTTEN OUR HANDS AROUND THIS BIG 718 00:24:46,360 --> 00:24:48,800 QUESTION, AND GIVEN IT AN 719 00:24:48,800 --> 00:24:50,320 ORGANIZATION AND ALSO SOME IDEA 720 00:24:50,320 --> 00:24:53,200 OF WHAT WE'RE INCLUDING AND WHAT 721 00:24:53,200 --> 00:24:58,760 WE'RE EXCLUDING FROM THAT 722 00:24:58,760 --> 00:24:59,160 FRAMEWORK. 723 00:24:59,160 --> 00:25:03,080 SO SOME DISCLOSURES. 724 00:25:03,080 --> 00:25:05,640 SO, OUR ROLE WAS TO DESCRIBE HOW 725 00:25:05,640 --> 00:25:07,400 CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE 726 00:25:07,400 --> 00:25:09,240 WILL AFFECT FOOD SYSTEMS. 727 00:25:09,240 --> 00:25:11,520 WHICH IS A PRETTY BROAD TASK, 728 00:25:11,520 --> 00:25:13,520 AND ONE YOU CAN REALLY ATTACK 729 00:25:13,520 --> 00:25:19,480 FROM A LOT OF DIFFERENT ANGLES. 730 00:25:19,480 --> 00:25:21,200 SO, FIRST, YOU COULD IMAGINE 731 00:25:21,200 --> 00:25:23,040 DIFFERENT WAYS OF THINKING ABOUT 732 00:25:23,040 --> 00:25:24,120 CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENTAL 733 00:25:24,120 --> 00:25:24,440 CHANGE. 734 00:25:24,440 --> 00:25:28,280 SO THERE ARE CHANGES IN 735 00:25:28,280 --> 00:25:28,960 TEMPERATURE, PRECIPITATION, 736 00:25:28,960 --> 00:25:29,440 ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION, 737 00:25:29,440 --> 00:25:30,920 DIFFERENT WAYS THE CLIMATE 738 00:25:30,920 --> 00:25:33,320 AFFECTS DIFFERENT SYSTEMS, 739 00:25:33,320 --> 00:25:36,280 PHYSICAL SYSTEMS, BIOLOGICAL 740 00:25:36,280 --> 00:25:36,880 SYSTEMS. 741 00:25:36,880 --> 00:25:39,040 DIFFERENT THINGS NOT RELATED TO 742 00:25:39,040 --> 00:25:46,800 CLIMATE LIKE POLLUTION AND 743 00:25:46,800 --> 00:25:47,280 DEGRADATION. 744 00:25:47,280 --> 00:25:48,760 THERE ARE DIFFERENT -- MIGHT 745 00:25:48,760 --> 00:25:53,240 AFFECT QUANTITY OF FOOD BY 746 00:25:53,240 --> 00:25:56,200 HARMING YIELD, CHANGING WHERE 747 00:25:56,200 --> 00:25:59,920 ARABLE LAND EXIST, WHERE 748 00:25:59,920 --> 00:26:02,560 LOCATIONS OF WHERE FOOD IS 749 00:26:02,560 --> 00:26:03,840 PRODUCED, METHODS, FOR EXAMPLE 750 00:26:03,840 --> 00:26:06,160 HOW AQUA CULTURE MIGHT BECOME A 751 00:26:06,160 --> 00:26:08,920 MORE PREVALENT WAY OF PRODUCING 752 00:26:08,920 --> 00:26:11,280 AQUATIC FOODS IF WILD CAPTURE 753 00:26:11,280 --> 00:26:12,480 FISHERIES BECOME MORE DIFFERENT, 754 00:26:12,480 --> 00:26:14,800 YOU CAN CHANGE QUALITY OF 755 00:26:14,800 --> 00:26:16,000 NUTRITIONAL DENSITY, AFFECT HOW 756 00:26:16,000 --> 00:26:17,520 THEY ARE STORED, FRESHNESS, HOW 757 00:26:17,520 --> 00:26:18,400 PERISHABLE THEY ARE. 758 00:26:18,400 --> 00:26:20,360 AND THEN YOU CAN THINK ABOUT 759 00:26:20,360 --> 00:26:20,960 JUST DIFFERENT FOOD SYSTEMS. 760 00:26:20,960 --> 00:26:24,120 THIS IS SOME OF WHAT ROBIN WAS 761 00:26:24,120 --> 00:26:26,320 TALKING ABOUT, CROP PRODUCTION, 762 00:26:26,320 --> 00:26:27,280 LIVESTOCK, AQUATIC SYSTEMS. 763 00:26:27,280 --> 00:26:29,480 DIFFERENT WAYS THEY ARE 764 00:26:29,480 --> 00:26:29,920 TRANSPORTED, STORED, 765 00:26:29,920 --> 00:26:32,400 DISTRIBUTED, YOU CAN THINK ABOUT 766 00:26:32,400 --> 00:26:33,520 INDIGENOUS FOOD SYSTEMS WHICH 767 00:26:33,520 --> 00:26:35,320 OPERATE -- TEND TO OPERATE ON 768 00:26:35,320 --> 00:26:37,360 DIFFERENT TRACKS THAN ALL OF 769 00:26:37,360 --> 00:26:38,360 THESE GENERALLY DO. 770 00:26:38,360 --> 00:26:41,760 SO, THERE ARE MANY WAYS TO 771 00:26:41,760 --> 00:26:44,240 APPROACH THIS WEIGHTY PROBLEM, 772 00:26:44,240 --> 00:26:46,760 AND OUR GROUP REALLY BEGAN BY 773 00:26:46,760 --> 00:26:47,720 HIGHLIGHTING THIS CLIMATE AND 774 00:26:47,720 --> 00:26:48,720 ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE PIECE. 775 00:26:48,720 --> 00:26:51,320 THIS IS HOW WE DECIDED WE WANTED 776 00:26:51,320 --> 00:26:54,960 TO ORGANIZE OUR THINKING HERE. 777 00:26:54,960 --> 00:27:01,120 AND THAT LED US TO THIS 778 00:27:01,120 --> 00:27:03,120 SCHEMATIC, GUIDING OUR THINKING 779 00:27:03,120 --> 00:27:06,000 HERE, WHICH BEGINS AT THE TOP, 780 00:27:06,000 --> 00:27:07,280 WITH THIS ORANGE BOX, WHICH IS 781 00:27:07,280 --> 00:27:08,640 THE HUMAN INFLUENCE ON THE 782 00:27:08,640 --> 00:27:10,320 GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT, AND YOU HAVE 783 00:27:10,320 --> 00:27:12,400 ALL OF THESE ARROWS, FLOWING 784 00:27:12,400 --> 00:27:13,840 DOWN THROUGH THAT, TO LEAD TO 785 00:27:13,840 --> 00:27:16,240 BOTTOM OF HOW THAT IMPACTS THE 786 00:27:16,240 --> 00:27:18,400 FOOD SYSTEM. 787 00:27:18,400 --> 00:27:20,400 I WILL NOTE THAT -- AND ROBIN 788 00:27:20,400 --> 00:27:21,720 MENTIONED THIS AS WELL, THERE IS 789 00:27:21,720 --> 00:27:23,480 ONE ARROW THAT IS DASHED THAT 790 00:27:23,480 --> 00:27:25,880 GOES FROM THE GREEN BOX BACK UP 791 00:27:25,880 --> 00:27:29,480 TO THE ORANGE BOX, AND THAT IS 792 00:27:29,480 --> 00:27:33,640 TO NOTE THAT FOOD SYSTEMS DO 793 00:27:33,640 --> 00:27:35,400 RETURN TO IMPACT THE ENVIRONMENT 794 00:27:35,400 --> 00:27:35,960 THEMSELVES. 795 00:27:35,960 --> 00:27:41,640 SO THEY BOTH IMPACT IT DIRECTLY 796 00:27:41,640 --> 00:27:43,480 THROUGH POLLUTION, AND 797 00:27:43,480 --> 00:27:44,960 BIODIVERSITY, AND ABILITY TO 798 00:27:44,960 --> 00:27:45,920 APPLY PESTICIDES AND THERE ARE 799 00:27:45,920 --> 00:27:48,320 DIFFERENT WAYS THEY CAN IMPACT 800 00:27:48,320 --> 00:27:51,360 THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT DIRECTLY, 801 00:27:51,360 --> 00:27:53,240 ALSO THROUGH THEIR IMPACT OF 802 00:27:53,240 --> 00:27:54,440 GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS THAT 803 00:27:54,440 --> 00:27:55,640 THEY ALSO AFFECT CLIMATE CHANGE. 804 00:27:55,640 --> 00:27:58,040 SO THIS IS NOT A ONE-WAY STREET 805 00:27:58,040 --> 00:28:00,240 BUT THERE'S SOME RECIPROCITY 806 00:28:00,240 --> 00:28:02,400 HERE. 807 00:28:02,400 --> 00:28:06,000 THE MAIN FOCUS OF OUR TASK HERE 808 00:28:06,000 --> 00:28:09,240 IS SHOWN IN THESE SOLID LINES. 809 00:28:09,240 --> 00:28:13,080 AND WE HAVE ORGANIZED THOSE 810 00:28:13,080 --> 00:28:15,360 PATHWAYS INTO FIVE MAIN GROUPS. 811 00:28:15,360 --> 00:28:17,760 SO, I'M GOING TO WALK THROUGH 812 00:28:17,760 --> 00:28:21,160 EACH OF THESE GROUPS, AND LIST 813 00:28:21,160 --> 00:28:22,800 THE TYPES OF ENVIRONMENTAL 814 00:28:22,800 --> 00:28:24,440 CHANGES THAT WE ARE INCLUDING 815 00:28:24,440 --> 00:28:25,840 EACH OF THESE GROUPS TO GIVE AN 816 00:28:25,840 --> 00:28:27,520 IDEA WHAT IS GOING TO BE 817 00:28:27,520 --> 00:28:30,560 INCLUDED, WHAT WE'RE AIMING TO 818 00:28:30,560 --> 00:28:34,200 INCLUDE IN THIS REVIEW, AND ALSO 819 00:28:34,200 --> 00:28:36,560 ALLOW KIND OF DISCUSSIONS OF 820 00:28:36,560 --> 00:28:38,040 THIS TO THE MEMBERS HERE TO GIVE 821 00:28:38,040 --> 00:28:39,840 US SOME FEEDBACK ON WHETHER SOME 822 00:28:39,840 --> 00:28:41,600 THINGS SHOULD BE INCLUDED, 823 00:28:41,600 --> 00:28:42,520 SHOULD NOT BE INCLUDED, SHOULD 824 00:28:42,520 --> 00:28:44,000 BE MOVED. 825 00:28:44,000 --> 00:28:48,200 SO I'LL START WITH PATHWAY 1, 826 00:28:48,200 --> 00:28:51,440 WHICH IS INDICATING HOW HUMANS 827 00:28:51,440 --> 00:28:53,120 HAVE CAUSED CLIMATE CHANGE, 828 00:28:53,120 --> 00:28:54,560 CLIMATE CHANGE IS ACCELERATING 829 00:28:54,560 --> 00:28:55,840 AND HOW THAT CLIMATE CHANGE IS 830 00:28:55,840 --> 00:28:57,480 GOING TO AFFECT FOOD SYSTEMS 831 00:28:57,480 --> 00:28:57,920 DIRECTLY. 832 00:28:57,920 --> 00:29:00,000 THIS WOULD INCLUDE THINGS LIKE 833 00:29:00,000 --> 00:29:01,320 CHANGING NUTRITIONAL DENSITY OF 834 00:29:01,320 --> 00:29:04,360 CROPS WHICH IS EVEN IN ITSELF A 835 00:29:04,360 --> 00:29:05,920 CO2 AFFECT, NOT NECESSARILY A 836 00:29:05,920 --> 00:29:07,560 CLIMATE CHANGE WRIT LARGE EFFECT 837 00:29:07,560 --> 00:29:10,360 BUT STILL INCLUDED UNDER THAT 838 00:29:10,360 --> 00:29:15,040 BUCKET E THERE'S CHANGES TO THE 839 00:29:15,040 --> 00:29:16,000 AVERAGE TEMPERATURE, RAINFALL, 840 00:29:16,000 --> 00:29:18,800 MORE AND INTENSE EXTREME EVENTS, 841 00:29:18,800 --> 00:29:19,800 THINGS LIKE FLOODS, DROUGHTS, 842 00:29:19,800 --> 00:29:22,240 HEAT WAVE, CHANGES TO LIVESTOCK 843 00:29:22,240 --> 00:29:28,120 MORTALITY AND PRODUCTIVITY, AND 844 00:29:28,120 --> 00:29:29,120 EVEN CHANGING ALLERGEN 845 00:29:29,120 --> 00:29:31,400 CONCENTRATIONS SOME CROPS MAY 846 00:29:31,400 --> 00:29:31,960 AFFECT HEALTH. 847 00:29:31,960 --> 00:29:34,160 GROUPS 2 THROUGH 4 ARE ALL THE 848 00:29:34,160 --> 00:29:36,440 THINGS WHERE THEY ARE ALSO 849 00:29:36,440 --> 00:29:37,880 AFFECTED, DIFFERENT SYSTEMS ARE 850 00:29:37,880 --> 00:29:39,840 ALSO AFFECTED BY CLIMATE CHANGE 851 00:29:39,840 --> 00:29:40,600 BUT SIMULTANEOUSLY BEING 852 00:29:40,600 --> 00:29:42,560 AFFECTED BY HUMANS THEMSELVES. 853 00:29:42,560 --> 00:29:44,880 SO THERE'S BOTH A KIND OF DIRECT 854 00:29:44,880 --> 00:29:47,960 EFFECT AND AS WELL AS CLIMATE 855 00:29:47,960 --> 00:29:49,560 CHANGE EFFECT, INFLECTED BY 856 00:29:49,560 --> 00:29:50,080 CLIMATE CHANGE. 857 00:29:50,080 --> 00:29:51,360 FIRST IS PHYSICAL SYSTEMS. 858 00:29:51,360 --> 00:29:54,920 HERE WE WOULD BE TALKING ABOUT 859 00:29:54,920 --> 00:29:57,240 SHIFTING OCEAN TEMPERATURES, 860 00:29:57,240 --> 00:30:00,240 ACIDITY, SALINITY, ALSO SOIL 861 00:30:00,240 --> 00:30:03,480 RUNOFF, BECAUSE OF CHANGING 862 00:30:03,480 --> 00:30:05,600 TILLAGE PRACTICES, MORE INTENSE 863 00:30:05,600 --> 00:30:07,320 STORMS, GROUND LEVEL OZONE 864 00:30:07,320 --> 00:30:09,880 PRODUCTION, BECAUSE OF THE 865 00:30:09,880 --> 00:30:12,560 EFFECT OF HUMAN EMISSIONS, AND 866 00:30:12,560 --> 00:30:14,800 THE PHOTOCHEMICAL EFFECTS IN THE 867 00:30:14,800 --> 00:30:17,840 ATMOSPHERE WHICH BECOME MORE -- 868 00:30:17,840 --> 00:30:19,160 WHICH PROCESS ACCELERATES UNDER 869 00:30:19,160 --> 00:30:21,040 HIGHER TEMPERATURES, WOULD 870 00:30:21,040 --> 00:30:22,000 HAPPEN MORE UNDER CLIMATE 871 00:30:22,000 --> 00:30:31,400 CHANGE, ALL THE PHYSICAL SYSTEMS 872 00:30:31,400 --> 00:30:32,040 PATHWAY. 873 00:30:32,040 --> 00:30:33,640 THREE IS BIOLOGICAL SYSTEMS, 874 00:30:33,640 --> 00:30:36,960 PEST WEED, PATHOGEN PRESSURE, 875 00:30:36,960 --> 00:30:38,960 CHANGES TO WILD POLLINATOR 876 00:30:38,960 --> 00:30:40,800 POPULATIONS BECAUSE OF CHANGES 877 00:30:40,800 --> 00:30:43,520 OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND 878 00:30:43,520 --> 00:30:44,320 ANTHROPOGENIC STRESSORS, 879 00:30:44,320 --> 00:30:47,160 BIODIVERSITY AND POOL OF 880 00:30:47,160 --> 00:30:48,920 AVAILABLE CROPS AVAILABLE FOR 881 00:30:48,920 --> 00:30:50,200 RESILIENCY AGAINST CLIMATE 882 00:30:50,200 --> 00:30:50,760 EFFECTS. 883 00:30:50,760 --> 00:30:54,040 AND THEN PATHWAY 4 HERE IS HOW 884 00:30:54,040 --> 00:30:54,960 AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIONS 885 00:30:54,960 --> 00:30:55,760 THEMSELVES, SYSTEMS THEMSELVES, 886 00:30:55,760 --> 00:30:57,200 ARE AFFECTED BY CLIMATE CHANGE 887 00:30:57,200 --> 00:30:57,680 AND HUMANS. 888 00:30:57,680 --> 00:31:01,160 HERE WOULD BE THINGS LIKE LESS 889 00:31:01,160 --> 00:31:01,920 PRODUCTIVE LABOR, NUTRIENT 890 00:31:01,920 --> 00:31:05,640 RUNOFF, WATER POLLUTION FROM 891 00:31:05,640 --> 00:31:06,440 OVERFERTILIZING AND STORM 892 00:31:06,440 --> 00:31:07,440 RUNOFF, DESTRUCTION TO SUPPLY 893 00:31:07,440 --> 00:31:09,920 CHAIN BECAUSE OF EFFECTS ON 894 00:31:09,920 --> 00:31:13,760 TRANSPORTATION NETWORK OR 895 00:31:13,760 --> 00:31:16,200 POTENTIALLY COLD STORAGE. 896 00:31:16,200 --> 00:31:19,160 LACK OF FRESH WATER IN 897 00:31:19,160 --> 00:31:19,800 IRRIGATION STRUCTURE, COULD BE 898 00:31:19,800 --> 00:31:22,600 AN ISSUE IN TERMS OF HIGHER 899 00:31:22,600 --> 00:31:23,440 TEMPERATURES OR INSUFFICIENT 900 00:31:23,440 --> 00:31:26,880 WATER TO BUFFER CHANGES AS WELL 901 00:31:26,880 --> 00:31:28,800 AS OUR ABILITY TO KEEP YIELDS 902 00:31:28,800 --> 00:31:30,840 INCREASING TO MEET DEMAND. 903 00:31:30,840 --> 00:31:39,760 AND THEN SPOILAGE AND FOOD-BORNE 904 00:31:39,760 --> 00:31:40,040 DISEASES. 905 00:31:40,040 --> 00:31:42,840 THE FIFTH PATHWAY ON THE RIGHT 906 00:31:42,840 --> 00:31:44,320 IS DIRECT LINE FROM HUMAN 907 00:31:44,320 --> 00:31:47,400 INFLUENCE ON ENVIRONMENT TO FOOD 908 00:31:47,400 --> 00:31:49,280 SYSTEMS, LIKE AIR POLLUTION, 909 00:31:49,280 --> 00:31:52,440 NITROUS OXIDE, SULPHUR DIOXIDE, 910 00:31:52,440 --> 00:31:58,160 HEAVY METAL CONTAMINATION OF 911 00:31:58,160 --> 00:31:59,760 SOIL, SOIL DEGRADATION, 912 00:31:59,760 --> 00:32:01,960 OVERWATERING, OVERFERTILIZING, 913 00:32:01,960 --> 00:32:02,560 OVERDRAWING OF AQUIFERS WHICH 914 00:32:02,560 --> 00:32:07,200 COULD HAVE EFFECTS ON FOOD SIS 915 00:32:07,200 --> 00:32:13,480 TESSMENTS -- SYSTEMS E THERE AE 916 00:32:13,480 --> 00:32:15,160 A LOT OF THINGS INCLUDED. 917 00:32:15,160 --> 00:32:18,480 I SOUNDED 19 WHEN PREPARING. 918 00:32:18,480 --> 00:32:22,560 A LOT OF BULLET POINTS HERE. 919 00:32:22,560 --> 00:32:24,120 I WANTED TO NOTE THAT THERE ARE 920 00:32:24,120 --> 00:32:30,040 SOME THAT HAVE BEEN COVERED 921 00:32:30,040 --> 00:32:30,360 EXHAUSTISM. 922 00:32:30,360 --> 00:32:31,560 THERE'S BEEN A LOT WRITTEN. 923 00:32:31,560 --> 00:32:34,600 BUT A LOT HAVE VERY LITTLE DATA. 924 00:32:34,600 --> 00:32:37,800 AND SO THE POINT OF OUR REVIEW 925 00:32:37,800 --> 00:32:39,840 WOULD BE TO BE COMPREHENSIVE IN 926 00:32:39,840 --> 00:32:41,000 THE CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENTAL 927 00:32:41,000 --> 00:32:42,040 CHANGES THAT ARE AFFECTING 928 00:32:42,040 --> 00:32:43,840 THINGS AND AS WELL AS 929 00:32:43,840 --> 00:32:46,200 HIGHLIGHTING THE BIG UNKNOWNS. 930 00:32:46,200 --> 00:32:49,240 AND SO SOME OF THESE SECTIONS 931 00:32:49,240 --> 00:32:51,320 MIGHT BE QUITE SPARSE BUT TO TRY 932 00:32:51,320 --> 00:32:53,440 TO INCLUDE EVERYTHING WE THINK 933 00:32:53,440 --> 00:32:55,080 IS A REASONABLE PATHWAY THAT 934 00:32:55,080 --> 00:32:57,360 DOES HAVE SOME SCIENTIFIC 935 00:32:57,360 --> 00:32:57,720 UNDERPINNING. 936 00:32:57,720 --> 00:32:59,120 THIS IS ALSO A WORK IN PROGRESS. 937 00:32:59,120 --> 00:33:02,400 THERE ARE THINGS ON HERE THAT 938 00:33:02,400 --> 00:33:04,840 MIGHT BE DELETED, ADDED, MOVED. 939 00:33:04,840 --> 00:33:08,000 SO I'M INTERESTED IN FEEDBACK 940 00:33:08,000 --> 00:33:09,080 FROM PARTICIPANTS TODAY. 941 00:33:09,080 --> 00:33:10,800 AND AS ROBIN SAID, THIS IS A BIG 942 00:33:10,800 --> 00:33:12,000 CHUNK OF OUR PAPER BUT THIS IS 943 00:33:12,000 --> 00:33:13,800 NOT THE WHOLE OF OUR PAPER. 944 00:33:13,800 --> 00:33:15,440 THERE WILL BE OTHER SECTIONS AT 945 00:33:15,440 --> 00:33:18,440 THE END TALKING ABOUT POTENTIAL 946 00:33:18,440 --> 00:33:22,200 WAYS ADAPT TO SOME OF THESE 947 00:33:22,200 --> 00:33:25,280 STRESSORS SO THAT THERE WILL BE 948 00:33:25,280 --> 00:33:28,240 ADDITIONAL PIECES THERE. 949 00:33:28,240 --> 00:33:30,600 SO, WE'LL PROBABLY BE RETURNING 950 00:33:30,600 --> 00:33:33,040 TO THIS FRAMEWORK AS A 951 00:33:33,040 --> 00:33:34,880 TOUCHSTONE THROUGHOUT THE 952 00:33:34,880 --> 00:33:36,120 WORKSHOP TODAY. 953 00:33:36,120 --> 00:33:40,800 BUT FOR NOW I HAVE A FEW 954 00:33:40,800 --> 00:33:42,320 QUESTIONS THAT I'M SPECIFICALLY 955 00:33:42,320 --> 00:33:45,400 TARGETING TOWARDS OTHER WORKING 956 00:33:45,400 --> 00:33:46,840 GROUP MEMBERS BECAUSE AS WE WERE 957 00:33:46,840 --> 00:33:48,000 GOING THROUGH BUILDING THIS 958 00:33:48,000 --> 00:33:48,880 FRAMEWORK WE HAD A LOT OF 959 00:33:48,880 --> 00:33:50,240 QUESTIONS CROP UP. 960 00:33:50,240 --> 00:33:52,040 SO WE WERE HOPING TO GET 961 00:33:52,040 --> 00:33:57,200 FEEDBACK ON THESE SPECIFIC 962 00:33:57,200 --> 00:33:57,440 THINGS. 963 00:33:57,440 --> 00:33:58,640 ONE IS HOW ARE YOU DEFINING 964 00:33:58,640 --> 00:33:59,920 CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENTAL 965 00:33:59,920 --> 00:34:00,360 CHANGE? 966 00:34:00,360 --> 00:34:03,880 SO WE HAVE THIS FRAME WORK 967 00:34:03,880 --> 00:34:09,920 AROUND IT, BUT WHICH INCLUDES 968 00:34:09,920 --> 00:34:11,000 BOTH CLIMATE, CLIMATE INFLICTED 969 00:34:11,000 --> 00:34:12,160 STRESSORS AND THINGS THAT DON'T 970 00:34:12,160 --> 00:34:12,960 NECESSARILY HAVE ANYTHING TO DO 971 00:34:12,960 --> 00:34:14,200 WITH CLIMATE. 972 00:34:14,200 --> 00:34:19,000 ARE OUR WORKING GROUPS DEFINING 973 00:34:19,000 --> 00:34:22,920 MORE NARROWLY AROUND CLIMATE OR 974 00:34:22,920 --> 00:34:23,240 MAYBE BROADER? 975 00:34:23,240 --> 00:34:28,840 I DON'T KNOW IF WE HAVE TO BE 976 00:34:28,840 --> 00:34:29,880 FULLY HARMONIZED AROUND THAT 977 00:34:29,880 --> 00:34:31,360 DEFINITION BUT TO GET A SENSE 978 00:34:31,360 --> 00:34:33,680 HOW CLOSE WE ARE. 979 00:34:33,680 --> 00:34:39,000 ARE THERE ELEMENTS INCLUDED IN 980 00:34:39,000 --> 00:34:46,040 YOUR FRAMEWORKS, IN OURS, ARE 981 00:34:46,040 --> 00:34:47,160 THERE OVERLAPS THAT ONE US 982 00:34:47,160 --> 00:34:48,240 SHOULD TAKE? 983 00:34:48,240 --> 00:34:50,400 WE WERE THINKING ABOUT POTENTIAL 984 00:34:50,400 --> 00:34:55,600 FOOD SAFETY ISSUES AROUND 985 00:34:55,600 --> 00:34:59,400 SPOILAGE AND SOME OF THE TOXINS 986 00:34:59,400 --> 00:35:01,560 THAT MIGHT AFFECT FOOD SAFETY OR 987 00:35:01,560 --> 00:35:02,680 IS THERE ANYTHING YOU THOUGHT 988 00:35:02,680 --> 00:35:04,080 BELONGED TO OUR WORKING GROUP 989 00:35:04,080 --> 00:35:06,520 THAT WE'VE NEGLECTED TO INCLUDE? 990 00:35:06,520 --> 00:35:08,120 YOU DID NOT INCLUDE IT IN YOUR 991 00:35:08,120 --> 00:35:09,080 FRAMEWORK BECAUSE YOU THOUGHT IT 992 00:35:09,080 --> 00:35:11,400 WOULD BE PICKED UP BY US BUT 993 00:35:11,400 --> 00:35:12,720 DIDN'T SEE IT ON THAT FRAMEWORK, 994 00:35:12,720 --> 00:35:19,560 THAT WOULD BE A GAP BETWEEN OUR 995 00:35:19,560 --> 00:35:20,560 WORKING GROUPS. 996 00:35:20,560 --> 00:35:29,040 I'M GOING TO TURN IT OVER TO, 997 00:35:29,040 --> 00:35:29,600 MAYBE ROBIN WILL LEAD THE 998 00:35:29,600 --> 00:35:31,240 QUESTION AND ANSWER QUESTIONS TO 999 00:35:31,240 --> 00:35:32,040 DISCUSS THESE, AND ANYTHING 1000 00:35:32,040 --> 00:35:32,640 ELSE. 1001 00:35:32,640 --> 00:35:33,320 THANK YOU VERY MUCH. 1002 00:35:33,320 --> 00:35:35,520 >> THANK YOU FOR THE OVERVIEW, 1003 00:35:35,520 --> 00:35:36,600 MATT. 1004 00:35:36,600 --> 00:35:37,160 THAT WAS PERFECT. 1005 00:35:37,160 --> 00:35:39,000 THIS IS OUR FIRST OPPORTUNITY 1006 00:35:39,000 --> 00:35:41,640 FOR QUESTION AND ANSWER SESSION. 1007 00:35:41,640 --> 00:35:45,240 WE HAVE A GOOD BIT OF TIME TO 1008 00:35:45,240 --> 00:35:46,320 DIG INTO THAT FRAMEWORK. 1009 00:35:46,320 --> 00:35:50,360 I DO SEE WE HAVE OUR FIRST 1010 00:35:50,360 --> 00:35:52,400 QUESTION PLACED IN THE CHAT. 1011 00:35:52,400 --> 00:35:54,760 IS ONE OF THE WORKING GROUPS 1012 00:35:54,760 --> 00:35:56,960 FOCUSING MORE ON THE DASHED 1013 00:35:56,960 --> 00:35:57,280 LINE? 1014 00:35:57,280 --> 00:35:59,120 ISN'T THAT QUITE IMPORTANT AS 1015 00:35:59,120 --> 00:35:59,320 WELL? 1016 00:35:59,320 --> 00:36:01,000 ESPECIALLY IF THIS DOES TRICKLE 1017 00:36:01,000 --> 00:36:03,960 DOWN TO POLICY ONE DAY. 1018 00:36:03,960 --> 00:36:05,840 SO, I WILL TACKLE THAT ON BEHALF 1019 00:36:05,840 --> 00:36:07,560 OF THE WORKING GROUP AND SAY 1020 00:36:07,560 --> 00:36:10,720 THANK YOU FOR THE EXCELLENT 1021 00:36:10,720 --> 00:36:11,160 QUESTION. 1022 00:36:11,160 --> 00:36:16,080 IF YOU ARE ABLE TO STAY TUNED 1023 00:36:16,080 --> 00:36:18,080 FOR OUR FOOD SYSTEMS-CENTRIC 1024 00:36:18,080 --> 00:36:22,000 TRIAD THIS AFTERNOON, OR A 1025 00:36:22,000 --> 00:36:23,640 LITTLE LATER THIS MORNING, 1026 00:36:23,640 --> 00:36:25,160 YOU'LL NOTE THAT, YES, WHEN WE 1027 00:36:25,160 --> 00:36:27,160 GET INTO THE INDIVIDUAL FOOD 1028 00:36:27,160 --> 00:36:30,480 SYSTEMS WE'RE TALKING ABOUT THAT 1029 00:36:30,480 --> 00:36:34,000 RECIPROCAL RELATIONSHIP. 1030 00:36:34,000 --> 00:36:36,560 SO, HOW ANIMALS, CROPS, AQUA 1031 00:36:36,560 --> 00:36:37,640 CULTURE ARE IMPACTING THE 1032 00:36:37,640 --> 00:36:39,640 ENVIRONMENT, HOW WE TRY TO ADAPT 1033 00:36:39,640 --> 00:36:46,480 THEM TO A CHANGING ENVIRONMENT, 1034 00:36:46,480 --> 00:36:49,720 HOW WE ATTEMPT TO MITIGATE WHILE 1035 00:36:49,720 --> 00:36:50,560 CHANGING, SOMETIMES A MORE 1036 00:36:50,560 --> 00:36:51,320 COMPLEX PROBLEM. 1037 00:36:51,320 --> 00:36:56,080 I DO BELIEVE THAT IS UNDER THE 1038 00:36:56,080 --> 00:36:58,480 PURVIEW OF OUR GROUP. 1039 00:36:58,480 --> 00:36:59,960 IF IT IS NOT AND IS BEING 1040 00:36:59,960 --> 00:37:01,320 ADDRESSED ELSEWHERE WE SHOULD BE 1041 00:37:01,320 --> 00:37:03,080 TALKING ABOUT WHERE THAT OVERLAP 1042 00:37:03,080 --> 00:37:06,360 EXISTS. 1043 00:37:06,360 --> 00:37:08,640 DO WE HAVE OTHER QUESTIONS OR 1044 00:37:08,640 --> 00:37:14,920 DISCUSSION FROM FOLKS ABOUT THIS 1045 00:37:14,920 --> 00:37:19,480 FRAMEWORK THAT WE'VE PROPOSED? 1046 00:37:19,480 --> 00:37:21,240 I THINK WE'RE HAPPY TO HAVE 1047 00:37:21,240 --> 00:37:24,520 THOSE EITHER PLACED IN THE CHAT 1048 00:37:24,520 --> 00:37:27,360 OR YOU'RE WELCOME TO UNMUTE 1049 00:37:27,360 --> 00:37:28,800 YOURSELF, TURN YOUR VIDEO ON AND 1050 00:37:28,800 --> 00:37:39,040 ASK DIRECTLY. 1051 00:37:45,520 --> 00:37:47,360 >> SORRY, DAN, GO AHEAD. 1052 00:37:47,360 --> 00:37:47,920 >> GO AHEAD. 1053 00:37:47,920 --> 00:37:48,640 >> THANKS SO MUCH. 1054 00:37:48,640 --> 00:37:50,200 THAT WAS MY QUESTION ABOUT THE 1055 00:37:50,200 --> 00:37:51,920 DASHED LINE TOO. 1056 00:37:51,920 --> 00:37:53,760 I MEAN, THERE'S BEEN SO MUCH 1057 00:37:53,760 --> 00:37:56,600 DONE ON THAT. 1058 00:37:56,600 --> 00:38:00,240 BUT OF COURSE IN TERMS OF 1059 00:38:00,240 --> 00:38:02,760 SUSTAINABLE DIETS, THEY ARE JUST 1060 00:38:02,760 --> 00:38:05,760 HEADING INTO THE LANCET TO, 1061 00:38:05,760 --> 00:38:07,960 DELVING INTO THAT MORE I THINK, 1062 00:38:07,960 --> 00:38:09,680 BUT I REALLY AGREED WITH YOUR -- 1063 00:38:09,680 --> 00:38:12,120 I DON'T HAVE AN ANSWER FOR YOU 1064 00:38:12,120 --> 00:38:13,920 BUT I'M IN GROUP 4 ON THE 1065 00:38:13,920 --> 00:38:16,480 METRICS AND METHODS, AND I AGREE 1066 00:38:16,480 --> 00:38:20,520 WITH YOU ABOUT THE -- HOW SORT 1067 00:38:20,520 --> 00:38:23,600 OF SUSTAINABILITY OR CLIMATE 1068 00:38:23,600 --> 00:38:24,800 CHANGE OR ENVIRONMENTAL 1069 00:38:24,800 --> 00:38:26,160 DEGRADATION IS BEING DEFINED AND 1070 00:38:26,160 --> 00:38:30,960 WHERE WE'RE DRAWING PROGRAMMERS 1071 00:38:30,960 --> 00:38:32,120 PARAMETERS, WE'RE PROBABLY LESS 1072 00:38:32,120 --> 00:38:33,520 FAR ALONG. 1073 00:38:33,520 --> 00:38:36,200 I DIDN'T MANAGE TO SIT IN THE ON 1074 00:38:36,200 --> 00:38:39,480 THE GROUPS 1 AND 2, BUT WE DON'T 1075 00:38:39,480 --> 00:38:40,240 HAVE A WORKING DEFINITION, AND 1076 00:38:40,240 --> 00:38:42,240 IF YOU COME UP WITH ONE WE'LL 1077 00:38:42,240 --> 00:38:46,720 FOLLOW YOUR LEAD. 1078 00:38:46,720 --> 00:38:48,200 BECAUSE I REVIEW AND SYNTHESIZE 1079 00:38:48,200 --> 00:38:49,360 A LOT OF STUFF. 1080 00:38:49,360 --> 00:38:51,440 WE'RE DOING IT CURRENTLY AS 1081 00:38:51,440 --> 00:38:51,760 WELL. 1082 00:38:51,760 --> 00:38:52,960 IT'S VERY TRICKY. 1083 00:38:52,960 --> 00:38:55,360 I MEAN, EVEN WHEN YOU THINK 1084 00:38:55,360 --> 00:38:57,920 ABOUT THE DIRECT PATHWAYS 1085 00:38:57,920 --> 00:38:59,000 BETWEEN POLLUTION, WHETHER THEY 1086 00:38:59,000 --> 00:39:00,680 ARE GOING THROUGH CLIMATE CHANGE 1087 00:39:00,680 --> 00:39:03,440 OR NOT, AND THEN WHETHER TO 1088 00:39:03,440 --> 00:39:06,520 INCLUDE THEM OR NOT, WE'VE HAD 1089 00:39:06,520 --> 00:39:08,720 TO HAVE ACTUALLY SEVERAL EXPERT 1090 00:39:08,720 --> 00:39:11,200 CONSULTANTS ADVISE US HOW TO 1091 00:39:11,200 --> 00:39:13,960 CONCEPTUALIZE THIS BECAUSE 1092 00:39:13,960 --> 00:39:16,280 THERE'S NO STRAIGHT ANSWER. 1093 00:39:16,280 --> 00:39:16,520 THANKS. 1094 00:39:16,520 --> 00:39:18,800 >> SO I'M JUST CLARIFYING THAT, 1095 00:39:18,800 --> 00:39:22,720 THAT COMMENT THERE. 1096 00:39:22,720 --> 00:39:24,840 A WORKING DEFINITION AROUND 1097 00:39:24,840 --> 00:39:25,880 SPECIFICALLY THE DOTTED ARROW 1098 00:39:25,880 --> 00:39:29,400 THEN IS WHAT YOU'RE SAYING, HOW 1099 00:39:29,400 --> 00:39:29,520 -- 1100 00:39:29,520 --> 00:39:30,800 >> NO. 1101 00:39:30,800 --> 00:39:33,760 YEAH, NO, TWO DIFFERENT THINGS. 1102 00:39:33,760 --> 00:39:35,720 I APPRECIATE THAT THE DOTTED 1103 00:39:35,720 --> 00:39:38,040 ARROW WILL BE COVERED. 1104 00:39:38,040 --> 00:39:40,000 AND THE EXPLANATION ON THAT. 1105 00:39:40,000 --> 00:39:42,760 AND TO PULL ON THE WORK THAT'S 1106 00:39:42,760 --> 00:39:49,200 BEEN DONE AND IS BEING DONE 1107 00:39:49,200 --> 00:39:50,280 AROUND DIETS DRIVING CLIMATE 1108 00:39:50,280 --> 00:39:52,160 CHANGE BUT THERE WAS A SECOND 1109 00:39:52,160 --> 00:39:53,400 PIECE AROUND THIS WORKING 1110 00:39:53,400 --> 00:39:53,680 DEFINITION. 1111 00:39:53,680 --> 00:39:56,680 ON THE BULLET POINTS THAT YOU 1112 00:39:56,680 --> 00:39:59,240 JUST MENTIONED, MATT, THERE WAS 1113 00:39:59,240 --> 00:40:04,880 THE SORT OF WORKING DEFINITION 1114 00:40:04,880 --> 00:40:05,840 OR PARAMETERS FOR 1115 00:40:05,840 --> 00:40:06,480 SUSTAINABILITY, CLIMATE CHANGE, 1116 00:40:06,480 --> 00:40:07,600 WHATEVER YOU WANT TO CALL IT. 1117 00:40:07,600 --> 00:40:09,560 I WOULD JUST SAY WE WOULD ALSO 1118 00:40:09,560 --> 00:40:15,160 BENEFIT FROM THAT IN OUR GROUP. 1119 00:40:15,160 --> 00:40:16,800 >> MAYBE WE HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY 1120 00:40:16,800 --> 00:40:18,560 TO TOUCH BASE BETWEEN GROUPS TO 1121 00:40:18,560 --> 00:40:19,760 MAKE SURE WE'RE ALIGNED ON 1122 00:40:19,760 --> 00:40:20,560 DEFINITIONS THERE. 1123 00:40:20,560 --> 00:40:23,160 I THINK DAN, IT LOOKS LIKE 1124 00:40:23,160 --> 00:40:25,960 YOU'VE GOT A QUESTION/COMMENT? 1125 00:40:25,960 --> 00:40:27,640 >> I WANTED TO RESPOND. 1126 00:40:27,640 --> 00:40:30,040 I THINK THE QUESTIONS YOU POSE 1127 00:40:30,040 --> 00:40:31,440 ARE REALLY IMPORTANT, AND I 1128 00:40:31,440 --> 00:40:33,040 THINK WE NEED TO SHARE THOSE 1129 00:40:33,040 --> 00:40:34,560 WITH THE OTHER WORKING GROUPS, 1130 00:40:34,560 --> 00:40:36,200 WHICH WE HAVE BUILT INTO THIS 1131 00:40:36,200 --> 00:40:37,520 PROCESS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR THE 1132 00:40:37,520 --> 00:40:41,280 WORKING GROUPS TO INTERACT, NOT 1133 00:40:41,280 --> 00:40:42,600 JUST IN WORKSHOPS BUT THROUGH 1134 00:40:42,600 --> 00:40:43,760 CONFERENCE CALLS TO THE WORKING 1135 00:40:43,760 --> 00:40:44,960 GROUP, IT'S IMPORTANT TO MAKE 1136 00:40:44,960 --> 00:40:46,200 THAT CLEAR. 1137 00:40:46,200 --> 00:40:48,920 I THINK WE CAN SAFELY SAY THAT 1138 00:40:48,920 --> 00:40:50,320 WORKING GROUPS 1 AND 2 WILL BE 1139 00:40:50,320 --> 00:40:51,960 DEALING WITH SOME OF THE 1140 00:40:51,960 --> 00:40:53,440 RECIPROCITY HERE. 1141 00:40:53,440 --> 00:40:57,240 SO TO THE EXTENT THAT THE HEALTH 1142 00:40:57,240 --> 00:40:58,200 CONTEXT HAS IMPACT OH 1143 00:40:58,200 --> 00:40:59,520 INTERVENTION CHOICES AND HOW 1144 00:40:59,520 --> 00:41:03,160 THAT MIGHT AFFECT WHAT WE DO 1145 00:41:03,160 --> 00:41:07,240 WITH THE FOOD SYSTEMS, THAT WILL 1146 00:41:07,240 --> 00:41:09,480 BE COVERED BY WORKING GROUP 1. 1147 00:41:09,480 --> 00:41:11,240 WORKING GROUP 2 OBVIOUSLY IS 1148 00:41:11,240 --> 00:41:14,760 FOCUSED ON CONSUMER CHOICE WHICH 1149 00:41:14,760 --> 00:41:17,040 OBVIOUSLY INFLUENCES -- IS A 1150 00:41:17,040 --> 00:41:19,240 DRIVER FOR PRODUCTION, AND 1151 00:41:19,240 --> 00:41:20,960 PRODUCTION CHOICES, SO I THINK 1152 00:41:20,960 --> 00:41:23,040 THAT RELATIONSHIP WILL BE 1153 00:41:23,040 --> 00:41:23,600 COVERED. 1154 00:41:23,600 --> 00:41:25,560 SO I THINKER THERE OPPORTUNITIES 1155 00:41:25,560 --> 00:41:26,640 FOR INTERSECTIONS ACROSS THE 1156 00:41:26,640 --> 00:41:28,520 GROUPS AND I THINK IT'S BUILT 1157 00:41:28,520 --> 00:41:29,520 INTO IT. 1158 00:41:29,520 --> 00:41:30,720 WE HEARD FROM WORKING GROUP 1 1159 00:41:30,720 --> 00:41:33,000 AND 2 HOW THEY ARE GOING TO 1160 00:41:33,000 --> 00:41:34,960 ADDRESS SOME OF THESE. 1161 00:41:34,960 --> 00:41:36,080 IT'S IMPORTANT TO SHARE THOSE 1162 00:41:36,080 --> 00:41:36,920 QUESTIONS WITH EVERYBODY. 1163 00:41:36,920 --> 00:41:47,080 THANK YOU. 1164 00:41:48,960 --> 00:41:50,720 >> ANY FURTHER DISCUSSION OR 1165 00:41:50,720 --> 00:41:51,760 QUESTIONS AROUND EITHER THE 1166 00:41:51,760 --> 00:41:52,880 DISCUSSION PROMPTS THAT MATT 1167 00:41:52,880 --> 00:42:00,080 PROVIDED OR AROUND THE FRAMEWORK 1168 00:42:00,080 --> 00:42:00,400 PRESENTATION. 1169 00:42:00,400 --> 00:42:02,720 >> ONE MORE QUESTION IN THE 1170 00:42:02,720 --> 00:42:06,520 CHAT TOO. 1171 00:42:06,520 --> 00:42:10,040 TALKING ABOUT THE WEIGHTING HOW 1172 00:42:10,040 --> 00:42:14,920 THE DIFFERENT -- HOW THE BULLET 1173 00:42:14,920 --> 00:42:16,360 POINTS ARE GOING AFFECT FOOD 1174 00:42:16,360 --> 00:42:16,800 SYSTEMS. 1175 00:42:16,800 --> 00:42:19,560 DO YOU WANT TO ANSWER THAT? 1176 00:42:19,560 --> 00:42:22,600 OR I CAN. 1177 00:42:22,600 --> 00:42:22,920 OKAY. 1178 00:42:22,920 --> 00:42:28,360 I MEAN, IN SOME WAYS THAT'S 1179 00:42:28,360 --> 00:42:30,480 GOING TO BE DRIVEN BY THE DATA. 1180 00:42:30,480 --> 00:42:33,560 AND WHAT RESEARCH IS OUT THERE. 1181 00:42:33,560 --> 00:42:38,800 WE HAVE -- THERE'S -- THERE'S 1182 00:42:38,800 --> 00:42:39,600 TONS OF THINGS PUBLISHED, ON 1183 00:42:39,600 --> 00:42:40,640 SOME VERY LITTLE. 1184 00:42:40,640 --> 00:42:41,600 OUR UNDERSTANDING OF HOW 1185 00:42:41,600 --> 00:42:42,800 IMPORTANT THE STRESSORS WILL BE 1186 00:42:42,800 --> 00:42:45,360 IS DRIVEN BY HOW MUCH IS KNOWN, 1187 00:42:45,360 --> 00:42:48,680 AND SO I'M NOT SURE THERE'S MUCH 1188 00:42:48,680 --> 00:42:50,520 INTERCOMPARISON THAT'S OUT THERE 1189 00:42:50,520 --> 00:42:51,680 THAT REALLY APPLES TO APPLES 1190 00:42:51,680 --> 00:42:52,840 COMPARES A LOT OF THESE THINGS, 1191 00:42:52,840 --> 00:42:57,520 I DON'T KNOW IF WE'LL BE ABLE TO 1192 00:42:57,520 --> 00:42:59,160 SUFFICIENTLY WEIGHT THEM BUT 1193 00:42:59,160 --> 00:43:02,000 TRYING TO DESCRIBE WHAT IS 1194 00:43:02,000 --> 00:43:02,200 KNOWN. 1195 00:43:02,200 --> 00:43:06,160 YEAH, WE'RE LIMITED BY THAT. 1196 00:43:06,160 --> 00:43:09,680 >> LET ME JUST SAY, THIS IS NOT 1197 00:43:09,680 --> 00:43:10,400 SYSTEMATIC REVIEW. 1198 00:43:10,400 --> 00:43:12,000 IT'S NOT BECAUSE WE DON'T WANT 1199 00:43:12,000 --> 00:43:14,200 TO DO SYSTEMATIC REVIEW. 1200 00:43:14,200 --> 00:43:15,360 IT'S A RESOURCE CONSTRAINT AT 1201 00:43:15,360 --> 00:43:16,040 THIS POINT. 1202 00:43:16,040 --> 00:43:18,000 THERE MAY BE AN OPPORTUNITY TO 1203 00:43:18,000 --> 00:43:20,520 DO THAT, IF SO WE WILL DO THAT, 1204 00:43:20,520 --> 00:43:21,520 BUT THAT'S SOMEWHAT RELATED TO 1205 00:43:21,520 --> 00:43:22,480 THE QUESTION I THINK. 1206 00:43:22,480 --> 00:43:24,680 TO THE EXTENT THAT WE CAN DO 1207 00:43:24,680 --> 00:43:25,680 THAT, WE WILL. 1208 00:43:25,680 --> 00:43:29,160 BUT AT THIS POINT WE'RE NOT ABLE 1209 00:43:29,160 --> 00:43:29,320 TO. 1210 00:43:29,320 --> 00:43:33,000 I THINK ONCE THESE REPORTS ARE 1211 00:43:33,000 --> 00:43:34,760 DEVELOPED AND OUT THERE, 1212 00:43:34,760 --> 00:43:35,800 HOPEFULLY THERE WILL BE A NEXT 1213 00:43:35,800 --> 00:43:37,480 STEP TO THE ADVANTAGE PROJECT, 1214 00:43:37,480 --> 00:43:39,440 AND THAT INCLUDE A MUCH MORE 1215 00:43:39,440 --> 00:43:48,440 SYSTEMATIC APPROACH. APPROACH. 1216 00:43:48,440 --> 00:43:49,400 >> EXCELLENT. 1217 00:43:49,400 --> 00:43:53,000 WELL, WE'VE NOT GOT ADDITIONAL 1218 00:43:53,000 --> 00:43:54,040 QUESTIONS HERE, OR INDIVIDUALS 1219 00:43:54,040 --> 00:43:55,640 POPPING UP FOR DISCUSSION. 1220 00:43:55,640 --> 00:43:58,640 SO AT THIS TIME I THINK WE CAN 1221 00:43:58,640 --> 00:44:01,240 TAKE A SHORT BREAK. 1222 00:44:01,240 --> 00:44:04,520 WE CAN RETURN JUST BEFORE 11:00 1223 00:44:04,520 --> 00:44:09,080 EASTERN, AT WHICH TIME WE'LL 1224 00:44:09,080 --> 00:44:10,320 HEAR FROM DR. ANTLE ABOUT 1225 00:44:10,320 --> 00:44:12,280 ECONOMIC CONSIDERATIONS HERE. 1226 00:44:12,280 --> 00:44:15,240 SO WE WILL SEE YOU ALL IN ABOUT 1227 00:44:15,240 --> 00:44:21,360 15 MINUTES. . 1228 00:44:21,360 --> 00:44:23,720 IT'S MY PLEASURE TO INTRODUCE 1229 00:44:23,720 --> 00:44:26,160 OUR GUEST SPEAKER DR. JOHN ANTLE 1230 00:44:26,160 --> 00:44:28,600 JOIN FROM OREGON STATE 1231 00:44:28,600 --> 00:44:30,680 UNIVERSITY TO PROVIDE 1232 00:44:30,680 --> 00:44:32,440 PERSPECTIVE ABOUT THE ECONOMIC 1233 00:44:32,440 --> 00:44:33,880 CHALLENGES OF THIS CLIMATE 1234 00:44:33,880 --> 00:44:35,480 ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE FARM SYSTEM 1235 00:44:35,480 --> 00:44:35,840 INTERFACE. 1236 00:44:35,840 --> 00:44:43,200 THANK YOU FOR JOINING US. 1237 00:44:43,200 --> 00:44:45,560 >> THANKS, ROBIN. 1238 00:44:45,560 --> 00:44:49,840 AND THANKS FOR THE OPPORTUNITY 1239 00:44:49,840 --> 00:44:51,720 TO PARTICIPATE IN GIVING THIS 1240 00:44:51,720 --> 00:45:01,080 REALLY IMPORTANT AND INTERESTING 1241 00:45:01,080 --> 00:45:03,400 PROJECT GOING. 1242 00:45:03,400 --> 00:45:04,280 I'M VOICE CHALLENGED, APOLOGIES, 1243 00:45:04,280 --> 00:45:08,640 I'LL BE SIPPING WATER AS I GO TO 1244 00:45:08,640 --> 00:45:14,240 HELP LUBRICATE THE VOCAL CORDS. 1245 00:45:14,240 --> 00:45:15,760 I NOTICE THAT WHEN YOU 1246 00:45:15,760 --> 00:45:17,720 INTRODUCED THIS SESSION THIS 1247 00:45:17,720 --> 00:45:19,680 MORNING YOU HAD MY TITLE 1248 00:45:19,680 --> 00:45:20,720 ECONOMICS OF CLIMATE AND 1249 00:45:20,720 --> 00:45:24,120 ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE IN FOOD 1250 00:45:24,120 --> 00:45:24,360 SYSTEMS. 1251 00:45:24,360 --> 00:45:26,560 I THINK THE TITLE YOU GAVE ME 1252 00:45:26,560 --> 00:45:29,640 ORIGINALLY WAS ON FARMS. 1253 00:45:29,640 --> 00:45:34,000 SO THAT'S HOW I CRAFTED MY TALK. 1254 00:45:34,000 --> 00:45:36,560 OBVIOUSLY, THERE WILL BE A LOT 1255 00:45:36,560 --> 00:45:39,200 OF INTERFACE THERE BETWEEN THE 1256 00:45:39,200 --> 00:45:40,600 FARM LEVEL AND AGRICULTURAL 1257 00:45:40,600 --> 00:45:42,680 SYSTEMS LEVEL AND BROADER FOOD 1258 00:45:42,680 --> 00:45:44,280 SYSTEMS, AND I'LL TALK A BIT 1259 00:45:44,280 --> 00:45:47,160 ABOUT THAT BUT JUST SO YOU KNOW 1260 00:45:47,160 --> 00:45:49,800 THAT IS MY FOCUS IS MORE ON THE 1261 00:45:49,800 --> 00:45:52,960 AGRICULTURAL SYSTEM OR FARM 1262 00:45:52,960 --> 00:45:53,280 LEVEL. 1263 00:45:53,280 --> 00:45:56,800 I'M GOING TO TOUCH ON THREE 1264 00:45:56,800 --> 00:45:57,520 THEMES. 1265 00:45:57,520 --> 00:46:00,600 ONE I THINK IS WHAT WE 1266 00:46:00,600 --> 00:46:03,240 DISCUSSED, ROBIN, BY E-MAIL A 1267 00:46:03,240 --> 00:46:06,080 BIT, HOW CAN WE THINK ABOUT 1268 00:46:06,080 --> 00:46:08,960 WHAT'S THE FRAMEWORK FOR 1269 00:46:08,960 --> 00:46:11,240 THINKING ABOUT THE ECONOMICS OF 1270 00:46:11,240 --> 00:46:12,360 AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS OF FARMS 1271 00:46:12,360 --> 00:46:15,280 AND HOW THEY CONNECT TO FOOD 1272 00:46:15,280 --> 00:46:18,880 SYSTEMS AS WE MOVE FORWARD IN 1273 00:46:18,880 --> 00:46:20,640 THE 21ST CENTURY, AND THEN 1274 00:46:20,640 --> 00:46:24,480 I'LL -- A LITTLE BIT OF A 1275 00:46:24,480 --> 00:46:25,800 HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE THERE, 1276 00:46:25,800 --> 00:46:31,160 AND THEN I'LL TALK ABOUT A 1277 00:46:31,160 --> 00:46:33,200 COUPLE OF THE DEMAND SIDE AND 1278 00:46:33,200 --> 00:46:34,400 SUPPLY SIDE FORCES THAT 1279 00:46:34,400 --> 00:46:39,760 INFLUENCE WHAT FARMERS DO, AND 1280 00:46:39,760 --> 00:46:41,000 HOW THAT -- IMPLICATIONS THAT 1281 00:46:41,000 --> 00:46:43,200 HAS FOR CLIMATE AND MORE BROADLY 1282 00:46:43,200 --> 00:46:44,040 FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT, AND 1283 00:46:44,040 --> 00:46:47,240 SORT OF THE THIRD THEME OF MY 1284 00:46:47,240 --> 00:46:51,960 TALK IS THIS CONCEPT OF HOW WE 1285 00:46:51,960 --> 00:46:54,680 MOVE AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS AND 1286 00:46:54,680 --> 00:46:57,880 BROADER FOOD SYSTEM TOWARDS 1287 00:46:57,880 --> 00:47:00,280 SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT 1288 00:47:00,280 --> 00:47:00,720 PATHWAYS. 1289 00:47:00,720 --> 00:47:03,080 FIRST OF ALL, A FEW THOUGHTS 1290 00:47:03,080 --> 00:47:07,320 ABOUT JUST HOW SHOULD WE THINK 1291 00:47:07,320 --> 00:47:09,880 ABOUT THIS PROBLEM, AND I THINK 1292 00:47:09,880 --> 00:47:13,920 AS HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE IS 1293 00:47:13,920 --> 00:47:15,120 HELPFUL, IN THE 20th CENTURY I 1294 00:47:15,120 --> 00:47:16,320 THINK IT'S IMPORTANT FOR US TO 1295 00:47:16,320 --> 00:47:17,840 KEEP IN MIND AS WE THINK ABOUT, 1296 00:47:17,840 --> 00:47:20,840 YOU KNOW, WHERE WE'RE GOING FROM 1297 00:47:20,840 --> 00:47:23,640 HERE, HOW WE GOT HERE. 1298 00:47:23,640 --> 00:47:26,720 AND IN THE MIDDLE PART OF THE 1299 00:47:26,720 --> 00:47:32,000 20th CENTURY INTO THE '60s, 1300 00:47:32,000 --> 00:47:34,360 '70s, THERE WAS VERY SERIOUS 1301 00:47:34,360 --> 00:47:43,560 CONCERN THE WORLD WAS MOVING 1302 00:47:43,560 --> 00:47:47,200 INTO A MALTHUSIAN FUTURE WITH 1303 00:47:47,200 --> 00:47:52,800 FOCUS IN IN THE GREEN REVOLUTION 1304 00:47:52,800 --> 00:47:56,200 ERA, INCREASING CROP YIELDS, 1305 00:47:56,200 --> 00:47:57,840 BASIC GRAIN COMMODITIES, 1306 00:47:57,840 --> 00:48:00,680 CALORIES TO FEED THE 1307 00:48:00,680 --> 00:48:03,280 SPECTACULARLY GROWING HUMAN 1308 00:48:03,280 --> 00:48:13,040 POPULATION IN THE MID-20th 1309 00:48:13,040 --> 00:48:14,760 CENTURY. 1310 00:48:14,760 --> 00:48:18,560 THE GREEN REVOLUTION DELIVERED 1311 00:48:18,560 --> 00:48:19,160 THROUGH GENETIC, MECHANICAL 1312 00:48:19,160 --> 00:48:20,280 TECHNOLOGIES TO SUPPLY THAT, IN 1313 00:48:20,280 --> 00:48:25,080 FACT THE COST OF BASIC FOOD 1314 00:48:25,080 --> 00:48:28,840 COMMODITIES DECLINED IN REAL 1315 00:48:28,840 --> 00:48:30,880 TERMS, THROUGHOUT THE 20th 1316 00:48:30,880 --> 00:48:33,560 CENTURY, AND THAT CONTINUES 1317 00:48:33,560 --> 00:48:35,080 TODAY INTO THE 21st. 1318 00:48:35,080 --> 00:48:39,200 BUT OF COURSE, AS WE MOVED -- AS 1319 00:48:39,200 --> 00:48:41,400 THE GREEN REVOLUTION MATURED AND 1320 00:48:41,400 --> 00:48:43,880 WE MOVED INTO THE 21ST CENTURY, 1321 00:48:43,880 --> 00:48:47,320 AND NOT ONLY IN THE 1322 00:48:47,320 --> 00:48:47,800 INDUSTRIALIZED SO-CALLED 1323 00:48:47,800 --> 00:48:50,280 INDUSTRIALIZED WORLD, WHAT WOULD 1324 00:48:50,280 --> 00:48:56,040 REFER TO NOW AS THE POST 1325 00:48:56,040 --> 00:48:56,800 INDUSTRIALIZED WORLD 1326 00:48:56,800 --> 00:48:58,920 INCREASINGLY IN THE MIDDLE 1327 00:48:58,920 --> 00:49:00,120 INCOME PARTS OF THE WORLD AND 1328 00:49:00,120 --> 00:49:02,200 LOWER INCOME PARTS OF THE WORLD 1329 00:49:02,200 --> 00:49:07,800 WE SAW THIS ONGOING DEMOGRAPHIC 1330 00:49:07,800 --> 00:49:09,200 AND NUTRITIONAL TRANSITION WHICH 1331 00:49:09,200 --> 00:49:11,880 LET THAT SHIFT FROM JUST CHEAP 1332 00:49:11,880 --> 00:49:14,720 CALORIES TOWARDS WHAT I LIKE TO 1333 00:49:14,720 --> 00:49:16,320 THINK OF AS QUALITY 1334 00:49:16,320 --> 00:49:17,920 DIFFERENTIATED FOOD PRODUCTS. 1335 00:49:17,920 --> 00:49:21,760 WHAT I MEAN BY QUALITY ARE ALL 1336 00:49:21,760 --> 00:49:23,640 THESE OTHER ATTRIBUTES OF FOOD 1337 00:49:23,640 --> 00:49:26,320 AND FOOD SYSTEMS THAT WE ARE 1338 00:49:26,320 --> 00:49:28,240 CONCERNED ABOUT, ABOUT PRODUCING 1339 00:49:28,240 --> 00:49:31,560 BETTER NUTRITION AND HEALTH, 1340 00:49:31,560 --> 00:49:33,560 REDUCING ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS, 1341 00:49:33,560 --> 00:49:35,240 ANIMAL WELFARE, GOING DOWN THE 1342 00:49:35,240 --> 00:49:39,080 LIST OF ISSUES THAT WE NOW GROUP 1343 00:49:39,080 --> 00:49:43,360 UNDER THIS HEADING OF 1344 00:49:43,360 --> 00:49:44,680 SUSTAINABILITY, SPANNING FROM 1345 00:49:44,680 --> 00:49:47,640 THE ECONOMIC DIMENSIONS TO THE 1346 00:49:47,640 --> 00:49:49,720 ENVIRONMENTAL TO THE SOCIAL 1347 00:49:49,720 --> 00:49:50,600 DIMENSIONS. 1348 00:49:50,600 --> 00:49:54,400 THE OTHER THING ABOUT THE 21ST 1349 00:49:54,400 --> 00:49:58,120 CENTURY IS THE CONTINUED DRIVE 1350 00:49:58,120 --> 00:49:58,760 TOWARDS SPECIALIZATION. 1351 00:49:58,760 --> 00:50:03,000 I THINK AS WE THINK ABOUT THESE 1352 00:50:03,000 --> 00:50:06,120 ISSUES AND THESE CHALLENGES, ONE 1353 00:50:06,120 --> 00:50:08,200 OF THE MOST FUNDAMENTAL ECONOMIC 1354 00:50:08,200 --> 00:50:13,320 FACTORS THAT WE HAVE TO NOT 1355 00:50:13,320 --> 00:50:16,400 FORGET IS THAT THAT IS WHAT 1356 00:50:16,400 --> 00:50:19,360 IS -- ONE OF THE KEY ELEMENTS 1357 00:50:19,360 --> 00:50:22,320 DRIVING THE SYSTEMS, ECONOMICS 1358 00:50:22,320 --> 00:50:26,080 OF THESE SYSTEMS, IS THE 1359 00:50:26,080 --> 00:50:28,160 ECONOMIC IMPERATIVE TO BE 1360 00:50:28,160 --> 00:50:29,160 PRODUCTIVE, TO BE COMPETITIVE, 1361 00:50:29,160 --> 00:50:32,160 WHICH LEADS -- HAS LED TO 1362 00:50:32,160 --> 00:50:33,600 ONGOING AND SCALE OF PRODUCTION, 1363 00:50:33,600 --> 00:50:36,200 NOT JUST IN THE INDUSTRIALIZED 1364 00:50:36,200 --> 00:50:39,320 SYSTEMS OF THE U.S. AND EUROPE 1365 00:50:39,320 --> 00:50:43,880 AND SOME PARTS OF ASIA AND LATIN 1366 00:50:43,880 --> 00:50:48,320 AMERICA, AND OTHER PARTS OF THE 1367 00:50:48,320 --> 00:50:50,040 WORLD, BUT INCREASINGLY IN THE 1368 00:50:50,040 --> 00:50:56,120 MIDDLE AND LOWER INCOME PARTS OF 1369 00:50:56,120 --> 00:50:56,920 THE WORLD. 1370 00:50:56,920 --> 00:50:59,760 AND THAT -- THOSE FORCES ARE 1371 00:50:59,760 --> 00:51:01,720 SPREADING ACROSS THE FOOD SYSTEM 1372 00:51:01,720 --> 00:51:04,000 OF COURSE, NOT JUST AT THE 1373 00:51:04,000 --> 00:51:06,040 PRODUCTION LEVEL, BUT IN THE 1374 00:51:06,040 --> 00:51:09,040 SUPPLY CHAINS, AND OF COURSE HAS 1375 00:51:09,040 --> 00:51:12,360 LED TO THIS GLOBAL FOOD SYSTEM 1376 00:51:12,360 --> 00:51:16,200 WE NOW HAVE. 1377 00:51:16,200 --> 00:51:18,800 BUT THAT CONTINUED TO PUSH 1378 00:51:18,800 --> 00:51:20,680 TOWARDS SPECIALIZATION, WE COULD 1379 00:51:20,680 --> 00:51:24,080 SAY SORT OF ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY, 1380 00:51:24,080 --> 00:51:25,640 PROBABLY HAS LED TO WHAT WE 1381 00:51:25,640 --> 00:51:29,760 MIGHT NOW THINK OF AS A SORT OF 1382 00:51:29,760 --> 00:51:30,280 OVERGLOBALIZATION, MAYBE 1383 00:51:30,280 --> 00:51:32,080 OVERSPECIALIZATION, BOTH AT THE 1384 00:51:32,080 --> 00:51:33,480 FARM PRODUCTION SCALE AND ACROSS 1385 00:51:33,480 --> 00:51:35,360 THE SUPPLY CHAIN. 1386 00:51:35,360 --> 00:51:36,960 AND WE'VE SEEN OF COURSE WITH 1387 00:51:36,960 --> 00:51:39,600 THE PANDEMIC, WE SEE WITH THE 1388 00:51:39,600 --> 00:51:42,880 WAR IN UKRAINE, JUST AS RECENT 1389 00:51:42,880 --> 00:51:45,400 EXAMPLES, OF THAT SYSTEM THAT WE 1390 00:51:45,400 --> 00:51:48,040 HAVE NOW AS BEING VERY 1391 00:51:48,040 --> 00:51:50,640 VULNERABLE TO CLIMATE EXTREMES, 1392 00:51:50,640 --> 00:51:53,600 POLITICAL SHOCKS, AND NOT 1393 00:51:53,600 --> 00:51:54,480 SUSTAINABLE IN MANY RESPECTS. 1394 00:51:54,480 --> 00:51:57,480 AND SO THE REAL CHALLENGE IS HOW 1395 00:51:57,480 --> 00:52:05,200 WE CAN MOVE THESE SYSTEMS IN 1396 00:52:05,200 --> 00:52:06,200 MORE SUSTAINABLE DIRECTIONS. 1397 00:52:06,200 --> 00:52:08,840 WELL, ONE OF MY FAVORITE 1398 00:52:08,840 --> 00:52:10,800 GRAPHICS THAT I CAN'T RESIST 1399 00:52:10,800 --> 00:52:13,320 SHOWING BRIEFLY IS THIS IS A 1400 00:52:13,320 --> 00:52:16,480 GRAPH OF REAL U.S. WHEAT PRICES, 1401 00:52:16,480 --> 00:52:19,240 REAL MEANING ADJUSTED FOR 1402 00:52:19,240 --> 00:52:21,120 INFLATION OVER TIME. 1403 00:52:21,120 --> 00:52:25,160 AND JUST MAKING THIS POINT THAT 1404 00:52:25,160 --> 00:52:26,680 STARTING IN THE MIDDLE PART OF 1405 00:52:26,680 --> 00:52:28,520 THE 20th CENTURY WHICH WE HAD 1406 00:52:28,520 --> 00:52:32,080 THE BIG SPIKE, IF WE THINK THE 1407 00:52:32,080 --> 00:52:34,320 RECENT INSTABILITY IN FOOD 1408 00:52:34,320 --> 00:52:36,320 PRICES IS SHOCKING AND BIG, YOU 1409 00:52:36,320 --> 00:52:40,560 KNOW, YOU GO BACK AND LOOK AT 1410 00:52:40,560 --> 00:52:43,760 WHAT HAPPENED IN THE 1970s. 1411 00:52:43,760 --> 00:52:46,360 THAT DWARFS THE EXPERIENCE WE'VE 1412 00:52:46,360 --> 00:52:50,600 HAD MORE RECENTLY. 1413 00:52:50,600 --> 00:52:52,320 BUT NEVERTHELESS IF YOU FOOT A 1414 00:52:52,320 --> 00:52:54,280 TREND LINE TO THIS COURSE YOU 1415 00:52:54,280 --> 00:52:57,800 SEE REAL WHEAT PRICES AS ONE 1416 00:52:57,800 --> 00:52:59,520 EXAMPLE HERE HAVE DECLINED FROM 1417 00:52:59,520 --> 00:53:01,720 THIS INDEX VALUE OF ABOUT 400 1418 00:53:01,720 --> 00:53:06,280 DOWN TO IN THE RANGE OF 100 TO 1419 00:53:06,280 --> 00:53:10,080 200, BOUNCING AS WE GET 1420 00:53:10,080 --> 00:53:11,040 DIFFERENT SHOCKS AND SO FORTH. 1421 00:53:11,040 --> 00:53:14,400 ONE OF THE BIG QUESTIONS WE FACE 1422 00:53:14,400 --> 00:53:16,600 NOW ARE WE GOING TO CONTINUE 1423 00:53:16,600 --> 00:53:19,120 THIS DOWN TREND, ARE WE GOING TO 1424 00:53:19,120 --> 00:53:21,640 REVERSE THAT TRENDS AND GO BACK 1425 00:53:21,640 --> 00:53:26,200 UP BECAUSE OF EFFECTS OF CLIMATE 1426 00:53:26,200 --> 00:53:27,200 CHANGE AND OTHER THINGS 1427 00:53:27,200 --> 00:53:28,960 AFFECTING THE PRODUCTIVITY OF 1428 00:53:28,960 --> 00:53:30,200 OUR FOOD SYSTEMS? 1429 00:53:30,200 --> 00:53:33,360 BUT TO BRING IT TO THE FARM 1430 00:53:33,360 --> 00:53:35,320 LEVEL, THEN, THE WAY I LIKE TO 1431 00:53:35,320 --> 00:53:37,960 THINK ABOUT THIS IS HOW WE 1432 00:53:37,960 --> 00:53:41,120 IMPROVE THE SUSTAINABILITY OF 1433 00:53:41,120 --> 00:53:42,880 THESE HIGHLY DIVERSE 1434 00:53:42,880 --> 00:53:48,560 HETEROGENEOUS AND COMPLEX 1435 00:53:48,560 --> 00:53:50,960 DYNAMIC SYSTEMS. 1436 00:53:50,960 --> 00:53:51,960 THESE CHARACTERISTICS ARE TRUE 1437 00:53:51,960 --> 00:53:55,800 FROM WHAT ARE THE STILL VERY 1438 00:53:55,800 --> 00:54:00,600 SMALL SEMI SUBSISTENT SYSTEMS 1439 00:54:00,600 --> 00:54:04,440 FOR EXAMPLE IN MANY PARTS OF 1440 00:54:04,440 --> 00:54:09,480 AFRICA TO THESE VERY LARGE 1441 00:54:09,480 --> 00:54:11,480 INDUSTRIAL AGRICULTURAL 1442 00:54:11,480 --> 00:54:12,480 COMMODITY HIGHLY SPECIALIZED 1443 00:54:12,480 --> 00:54:18,040 COMMODITY PRODUCTION SYSTEMS IN 1444 00:54:18,040 --> 00:54:19,160 PLACES LIKE NORTH AMERICA. 1445 00:54:19,160 --> 00:54:20,240 I THINK IT'S REALLY INTERESTING 1446 00:54:20,240 --> 00:54:22,680 TO ASK YOURSELF WHICH OF THESE 1447 00:54:22,680 --> 00:54:26,080 SYSTEMS -- AND OF COURSE WE HAVE 1448 00:54:26,080 --> 00:54:28,920 EVERYTHING IN BETWEEN THESE TWO, 1449 00:54:28,920 --> 00:54:30,800 THESE TWO EXTREMES TODAY IN THE 1450 00:54:30,800 --> 00:54:32,400 WORLD, THAT'S THIS NOTION OF 1451 00:54:32,400 --> 00:54:32,800 DIVERSITY. 1452 00:54:32,800 --> 00:54:34,080 WHAT'S REALLY INTERESTING ALSO 1453 00:54:34,080 --> 00:54:35,920 IS THAT EVEN WITHIN EACH OF 1454 00:54:35,920 --> 00:54:39,760 THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS, THEY ARE 1455 00:54:39,760 --> 00:54:42,560 HIGHLY HETEROGENEOUS. 1456 00:54:42,560 --> 00:54:45,520 AND THEY ARE BOTH VERY COMPLEX 1457 00:54:45,520 --> 00:54:46,160 AND DYNAMIC. 1458 00:54:46,160 --> 00:54:47,520 BUT I THINK IT'S REALLY 1459 00:54:47,520 --> 00:54:48,720 INTERESTING TO ASK OURSELVES 1460 00:54:48,720 --> 00:54:51,760 WHICH OF THESE KINDS OF SYSTEMS 1461 00:54:51,760 --> 00:54:54,280 IS ACTUALLY MORE SUSTAINABLE? 1462 00:54:54,280 --> 00:54:57,240 WE THINK ACROSS DIMENSIONS OF 1463 00:54:57,240 --> 00:54:58,160 SUSTAINABILITY, AND I WON'T 1464 00:54:58,160 --> 00:55:01,080 SPEND A LOT OF TIME TO DIGRESS 1465 00:55:01,080 --> 00:55:02,720 ON THAT QUESTION HERE BUT I 1466 00:55:02,720 --> 00:55:05,840 WOULD SUGGEST IN FACT IN SOME 1467 00:55:05,840 --> 00:55:08,160 RESPECTS, THE SYSTEM ON THE LEFT 1468 00:55:08,160 --> 00:55:09,480 IS YOU MIGHT SAY MORE 1469 00:55:09,480 --> 00:55:10,840 SUSTAINABLE AND IN SOME RESPECTS 1470 00:55:10,840 --> 00:55:13,440 THE SYSTEM ON THE RIGHT IS MORE 1471 00:55:13,440 --> 00:55:13,960 SUSTAINABLE. 1472 00:55:13,960 --> 00:55:16,320 AND THIS IS JUST TO HIGHLIGHT 1473 00:55:16,320 --> 00:55:20,560 THE FACT THAT THERE ARE MANY 1474 00:55:20,560 --> 00:55:21,320 DIMENSIONS OF SUSTAINABILITY. 1475 00:55:21,320 --> 00:55:24,080 AND THERE ARE VERY COMPLEX 1476 00:55:24,080 --> 00:55:25,160 TRADEOFFS AND INTERACTIONS IN 1477 00:55:25,160 --> 00:55:25,520 SYSTEMS. 1478 00:55:25,520 --> 00:55:30,280 THAT'S WHAT MAKES IT SO 1479 00:55:30,280 --> 00:55:32,640 DIFFICULT FOR US TO UNDERSTAND 1480 00:55:32,640 --> 00:55:36,200 THEM AND IMPROVE THEM AND MOVE 1481 00:55:36,200 --> 00:55:39,400 THEM IN MORE SUSTAINABLE 1482 00:55:39,400 --> 00:55:42,200 DIRECTIONS, AND SO ONE OF THE 1483 00:55:42,200 --> 00:55:43,200 THEMES, IDEAS I WANT TO LEAVE 1484 00:55:43,200 --> 00:55:46,600 WITH YOU HERE IS THIS IDEA THAT 1485 00:55:46,600 --> 00:55:50,400 IF WE FOCUS ON ONE DIMENSION OF 1486 00:55:50,400 --> 00:55:53,040 THE SYSTEMS LIKE THE EARLY 1487 00:55:53,040 --> 00:55:54,560 20th CENTURY GREEN REVOLUTION 1488 00:55:54,560 --> 00:55:57,160 FOCUSED ON YIELD OR CHEAP 1489 00:55:57,160 --> 00:55:58,160 CALORIES WE'LL MAKE MISTAKES, 1490 00:55:58,160 --> 00:56:02,680 PRODUCE SYSTEMS NOT SUSTAINABLE 1491 00:56:02,680 --> 00:56:03,640 IN OUR DIMENSIONS. 1492 00:56:03,640 --> 00:56:04,960 LIKE TODAY IF WE FOCUS ON 1493 00:56:04,960 --> 00:56:13,720 CLIMATE ALONE WE'LL MAKE 1494 00:56:13,720 --> 00:56:17,440 MISTAKES BECAUSE THIS IS 1495 00:56:17,440 --> 00:56:18,320 MULTI-DIMENSIONAL, AND SOMETIMES 1496 00:56:18,320 --> 00:56:20,840 THE DISCUSSIONS THAT ARE VERY 1497 00:56:20,840 --> 00:56:22,120 CLIMATE CENTRIC CONCERN ME 1498 00:56:22,120 --> 00:56:23,840 BECAUSE THEY FAIL TO ACKNOWLEDGE 1499 00:56:23,840 --> 00:56:30,120 THE OTHER IMPORTANT DIMENSIONS 1500 00:56:30,120 --> 00:56:31,560 OF SUSTAINABILITY. 1501 00:56:31,560 --> 00:56:33,760 ON LEFT USES NO FOSSIL FUELS, 1502 00:56:33,760 --> 00:56:36,040 THIS ONE USES A LOT. 1503 00:56:36,040 --> 00:56:36,920 ORIOLES 1504 00:56:36,920 --> 00:56:41,840 ON THE OTHER HAND THE SYSTEM ON 1505 00:56:41,840 --> 00:56:43,800 THE RIGHT PRODUCES MORE FOOD 1506 00:56:43,800 --> 00:56:45,240 MUCH MORE CHEAPLY PER UNIT THAN 1507 00:56:45,240 --> 00:56:46,600 SYSTEM ON THE LEFT. 1508 00:56:46,600 --> 00:56:53,280 THE FOOD THAT THE WORLD NEEDS TO 1509 00:56:53,280 --> 00:56:55,760 FEED ITSELF. 1510 00:56:55,760 --> 00:56:57,560 THAT'S THE CHALLENGE WE FACE. 1511 00:56:57,560 --> 00:57:00,840 SOME OF THE WORK WE'VE DONE 1512 00:57:00,840 --> 00:57:05,920 RECENTLY, THIS IS FROM WORK I'VE 1513 00:57:05,920 --> 00:57:06,520 DONE WITH BRUNO BOSSO AT 1514 00:57:06,520 --> 00:57:08,240 MICHIGAN STATE UNIVERSITY AND 1515 00:57:08,240 --> 00:57:09,920 OTHER FOLKS, THIS DIAGRAM TO 1516 00:57:09,920 --> 00:57:14,160 MAKE THIS POINT AGAIN ABOUT THE 1517 00:57:14,160 --> 00:57:16,360 COMPLEXITY OF THE SYSTEMS, IS 1518 00:57:16,360 --> 00:57:20,400 TOO MUCH DETAIL, TO MAKE THE 1519 00:57:20,400 --> 00:57:26,440 POINT THERE ARE VARIOUS ENERGY 1520 00:57:26,440 --> 00:57:27,760 NUTRIENT CARBON, WATER, FLOWS 1521 00:57:27,760 --> 00:57:30,680 INTO -- THIS IS A CARTOON OF 1522 00:57:30,680 --> 00:57:35,920 WHAT YOU MIGHT CONSIDER A 1523 00:57:35,920 --> 00:57:40,320 TYPICAL MIDWESTERN SYSTEM THAT 1524 00:57:40,320 --> 00:57:41,200 INVOLVES PERHAPS MAYBE 1525 00:57:41,200 --> 00:57:42,960 CORN-SOYBEAN ROTATION WITH 1526 00:57:42,960 --> 00:57:45,160 PERHAPS LIVE STOCK THROWN IN, 1527 00:57:45,160 --> 00:57:46,800 THE VARIOUS WAYS THINGS FLOW OUT 1528 00:57:46,800 --> 00:57:48,920 OF THE SYSTEMS, A LOT OF THE 1529 00:57:48,920 --> 00:57:50,320 NUTRIENTS FLOW OUT THROUGH THE 1530 00:57:50,320 --> 00:57:53,200 GRAIN PRODUCT, OFF THE FARM, AND 1531 00:57:53,200 --> 00:57:54,760 THERE ARE EMISSIONS FROM THE 1532 00:57:54,760 --> 00:57:58,920 FARM IN TERMS OF CO2, NITROUS 1533 00:57:58,920 --> 00:57:59,800 OXIDE, METHANE, THINGS RUNNING 1534 00:57:59,800 --> 00:58:09,880 OFF IN TERMS OF WATER, ET 1535 00:58:09,880 --> 00:58:10,120 CETERA. 1536 00:58:10,120 --> 00:58:11,520 THEN CAN'T FUNCTION WITHOUT 1537 00:58:11,520 --> 00:58:14,560 THESE INPUTS AND OUTPUTS, AND 1538 00:58:14,560 --> 00:58:17,760 HOW DO WE MAKE THEM WORK BETTER 1539 00:58:17,760 --> 00:58:21,240 IN THE VARIOUS DIMENSIONS OF 1540 00:58:21,240 --> 00:58:21,800 SUSTAINABILITY. 1541 00:58:21,800 --> 00:58:26,200 SO THIS CARTOON IS A 1542 00:58:26,200 --> 00:58:28,080 REPRESENTATION OF SOME OF THE 1543 00:58:28,080 --> 00:58:29,960 TECHNOLOGYES WE HAVE NOW AND 1544 00:58:29,960 --> 00:58:32,440 THAT ARE ONLINE TO HELP US TRY 1545 00:58:32,440 --> 00:58:34,600 MANAGE THESE COMPLEX SYSTEMS IN 1546 00:58:34,600 --> 00:58:35,480 BETTER WAYS. 1547 00:58:35,480 --> 00:58:37,280 KEEPING IN MIND THAT IN DOING 1548 00:58:37,280 --> 00:58:40,600 THAT, THEY ALSO HAVE TO BE 1549 00:58:40,600 --> 00:58:45,240 GENERATING ENOUGH INCOME TO BE 1550 00:58:45,240 --> 00:58:46,440 PROFITABLE TO KEEP FARMS IN 1551 00:58:46,440 --> 00:58:48,160 BUSINESS AND FARMERS WILLING TO 1552 00:58:48,160 --> 00:58:52,880 CONTINUE TO WORK IN THESE KINDS 1553 00:58:52,880 --> 00:58:53,680 OF SYSTEMS. 1554 00:58:53,680 --> 00:59:00,080 SO, TO TALK A BIT MORE ABOUT THE 1555 00:59:00,080 --> 00:59:01,200 ECONOMICS, THE FARMONOMICS OF 1556 00:59:01,200 --> 00:59:02,280 THESE SYSTEMS AND CHALLENGES, I 1557 00:59:02,280 --> 00:59:04,240 WAS HAPPY TO HEAR IN YOUR 1558 00:59:04,240 --> 00:59:07,440 PROJECT YOU'VE GOT SOME OTHER 1559 00:59:07,440 --> 00:59:08,640 WORKING GROUPS FOCUSING ON OTHER 1560 00:59:08,640 --> 00:59:11,880 ELEMENTS BUT I LIKE TO THINK OF 1561 00:59:11,880 --> 00:59:20,000 SIMPLE ECONOMIC WAY, DEMAND AND 1562 00:59:20,000 --> 00:59:21,400 SUPPLY SIDE FACTORINGS. 1563 00:59:21,400 --> 00:59:25,920 AND ON THE DEMAND SIDE REALLY 1564 00:59:25,920 --> 00:59:27,200 ARE, YOU KNOW, THESE, YOU KNOW, 1565 00:59:27,200 --> 00:59:29,720 LOCAL TO NATIONAL TO GLOBAL 1566 00:59:29,720 --> 00:59:32,680 SUPPLY CHAINS THAT ARE REALLY 1567 00:59:32,680 --> 00:59:33,680 DRIVING THESE FOOD SYSTEMS. 1568 00:59:33,680 --> 00:59:36,560 LIKE I SAID, THIS DEMAND FOR 1569 00:59:36,560 --> 00:59:39,680 QUALITY BROADLY CONCEIVED AS 1570 00:59:39,680 --> 00:59:41,120 THIS WHOLE ARRAY OF ATTRIBUTES 1571 00:59:41,120 --> 00:59:44,160 THAT WE CARE ABOUT. 1572 00:59:44,160 --> 00:59:45,640 PRICE, QUANTITY, CONVENIENCE, 1573 00:59:45,640 --> 00:59:47,480 VERY IMPORTANT, YOU KNOW, 1574 00:59:47,480 --> 00:59:49,120 INCREASINGLY AS PEOPLE'S INCOMES 1575 00:59:49,120 --> 00:59:50,880 RISE, THEIR TIME IS MORE AND 1576 00:59:50,880 --> 00:59:52,520 MORE VALUABLE TO THEM, 1577 00:59:52,520 --> 00:59:54,160 CONVENIENCE IS AN INCREDIBLY 1578 00:59:54,160 --> 00:59:56,760 IMPORTANT ATTRIBUTE OF FOOD. 1579 00:59:56,760 --> 00:59:59,600 VARIETY, NUTRITION, ENVIRONMENT, 1580 00:59:59,600 --> 01:00:00,480 ET CETERA. 1581 01:00:00,480 --> 01:00:05,000 AND NOTICE THAT WERE MANY OF 1582 01:00:05,000 --> 01:00:06,960 THESE ATTRIBUTES OF QUALITY ARE 1583 01:00:06,960 --> 01:00:08,480 WHATN MY WORLD, WE OFTEN 1584 01:00:08,480 --> 01:00:12,320 REFERRED TO AS A CREDENC 1585 01:00:12,320 --> 01:00:17,560 ATTRIBUTE, MANY HARD TO DIRECTLY 1586 01:00:17,560 --> 01:00:18,680 OBSERVE, MANY ATTRIBUTES OF FOOD 1587 01:00:18,680 --> 01:00:21,720 SAFETY WHEN YOU TAKE YOUR BITE 1588 01:00:21,720 --> 01:00:24,120 OF YOUR, YOU KNOW, MEDIUM RARE 1589 01:00:24,120 --> 01:00:25,920 HAMBURGER, YOU DON'T KNOW 1590 01:00:25,920 --> 01:00:28,120 WHETHER THOSE E. COLI ARE 1591 01:00:28,120 --> 01:00:29,200 WORKING THERE OR NOT. 1592 01:00:29,200 --> 01:00:31,280 AND EVEN IF YOU GET SICK LATER, 1593 01:00:31,280 --> 01:00:33,800 YOU MAY NOT ASSOCIATE THAT WITH 1594 01:00:33,800 --> 01:00:35,640 THAT MEDIUM RARE HAMBURGER THAT 1595 01:00:35,640 --> 01:00:38,720 YOU ATE. 1596 01:00:38,720 --> 01:00:39,920 AND SO FORTH. 1597 01:00:39,920 --> 01:00:41,600 MANY OF THESE ATTRIBUTES ARE 1598 01:00:41,600 --> 01:00:42,280 PRODUCTION ATTRIBUTES. 1599 01:00:42,280 --> 01:00:44,760 WE CARE ABOUT -- I WOULD LIKE TO 1600 01:00:44,760 --> 01:00:45,640 BUY FOOD THAN SUSTAINABLY 1601 01:00:45,640 --> 01:00:47,480 PRODUCED BUT HOW DO I KNOW IT'S 1602 01:00:47,480 --> 01:00:48,680 SUSTAINABLY PRODUCED? 1603 01:00:48,680 --> 01:00:52,080 SO THERE'S A HUGE INFORMATION 1604 01:00:52,080 --> 01:00:52,880 PROBLEM HERE. 1605 01:00:52,880 --> 01:00:56,120 AS WE MOVE FROM THIS PURE 1606 01:00:56,120 --> 01:00:58,360 QUANTITY SORT OF CALORIE-BASED 1607 01:00:58,360 --> 01:01:02,360 SYSTEM TO I HAD MORE COMPLEX 1608 01:01:02,360 --> 01:01:03,520 MULTI-ATTRIBUTE FOOD SYSTEM, ONE 1609 01:01:03,520 --> 01:01:08,440 OF THE MOST CHALLENGING ASPECTS 1610 01:01:08,440 --> 01:01:10,240 IS HOW WE CONVEY IN AN EFFICIENT 1611 01:01:10,240 --> 01:01:12,600 WAY INFORMATION ABOUT THESE 1612 01:01:12,600 --> 01:01:14,080 VARIOUS ATTRIBUTES OF FOOD SO 1613 01:01:14,080 --> 01:01:16,200 THAT CONSUMERS CAN MAKE INFORMED 1614 01:01:16,200 --> 01:01:18,640 DECISIONS AND THROUGH THEIR 1615 01:01:18,640 --> 01:01:20,880 CHOICES HELP DRIVE THE SUPPLY 1616 01:01:20,880 --> 01:01:27,680 SIDE TOWARDS MORE SUSTAINABLE 1617 01:01:27,680 --> 01:01:28,880 SYSTEMS. 1618 01:01:28,880 --> 01:01:32,280 ON THE SUPPLY SIDE IS GLOBAL 1619 01:01:32,280 --> 01:01:34,000 COMPETITION PUSHING INCREASED 1620 01:01:34,000 --> 01:01:35,480 SCALE EFFICIENCIES AND 1621 01:01:35,480 --> 01:01:36,360 PRODUCTION AND PROCESSING AND 1622 01:01:36,360 --> 01:01:46,880 MARKETING TO THE SUPPLY CHAIN. 1623 01:01:49,840 --> 01:01:51,440 ALSO COMMODITIES CROPS LIKE 1624 01:01:51,440 --> 01:01:57,000 WHEAT AND MAIZE AND LIVESTOCK, 1625 01:01:57,000 --> 01:02:03,040 TO MORE SPECIALIZED LARGER SCALE 1626 01:02:03,040 --> 01:02:08,280 OFTEN FARMS WITH CONTRACTUAL 1627 01:02:08,280 --> 01:02:09,960 ARRANGEMENTS WITH BUYERS THAT 1628 01:02:09,960 --> 01:02:11,680 DEFINE MANY ATTRIBUTES THEY 1629 01:02:11,680 --> 01:02:15,400 SHOULD BE ACHIEVING BESIDES JUST 1630 01:02:15,400 --> 01:02:15,680 QUANTITY. 1631 01:02:15,680 --> 01:02:21,960 BUT OF COURSE THE CHALLENGE THE 1632 01:02:21,960 --> 01:02:23,400 GROWERS FIND THE PRODUCERS IS 1633 01:02:23,400 --> 01:02:26,360 THERE ARE A LOT OF VERY COMPLEX 1634 01:02:26,360 --> 01:02:27,640 TRADEOFFS IN COMPLEX SYSTEMS 1635 01:02:27,640 --> 01:02:30,680 BETWEEN THE DRIVE FOR 1636 01:02:30,680 --> 01:02:32,560 SPECIALIZATION AND ECONOMIC 1637 01:02:32,560 --> 01:02:34,440 EFFICIENCY AND RISKINESS, 1638 01:02:34,440 --> 01:02:37,040 RESILIENCE OF THESE SYSTEMS. 1639 01:02:37,040 --> 01:02:42,760 YOU COULD SAY GENERALLY THERE'S 1640 01:02:42,760 --> 01:02:43,400 A TRADEOFF. 1641 01:02:43,400 --> 01:02:45,600 THAT'S ONE OF THE GREAT 1642 01:02:45,600 --> 01:02:48,520 CHALLENGES, THAT THE FARM 1643 01:02:48,520 --> 01:02:49,840 MANAGERS FACE. 1644 01:02:49,840 --> 01:02:52,480 AT THE SAME TIME, MARKETS ARE 1645 01:02:52,480 --> 01:02:54,240 DEMANDING THIS SUFFICIENCY IS 1646 01:02:54,240 --> 01:02:58,480 LOW COST PER UNIT OF OUTPUT PLUS 1647 01:02:58,480 --> 01:02:59,920 THESE OTHER ATTRIBUTES, FOR 1648 01:02:59,920 --> 01:03:01,560 EXAMPLE, YOU KNOW, TO SELL TO, 1649 01:03:01,560 --> 01:03:03,640 YOU KNOW, A CERTAIN SUPPLY CHAIN 1650 01:03:03,640 --> 01:03:08,520 YOU MAY REQUIRE -- MEET A 1651 01:03:08,520 --> 01:03:09,400 CERTAIN KIND OF SUSTAINABILITY 1652 01:03:09,400 --> 01:03:10,960 CERTIFICATION SO AGAIN NOT ONLY 1653 01:03:10,960 --> 01:03:15,720 THIS TRADEOFF AT THE FARM LEVEL 1654 01:03:15,720 --> 01:03:18,200 BETWEEN EFFICIENCY AND 1655 01:03:18,200 --> 01:03:20,360 RESILIENCE, BUT BETWEEN THOSE 1656 01:03:20,360 --> 01:03:21,480 ATTRIBUTES AND THESE OTHER 1657 01:03:21,480 --> 01:03:26,200 QUALITY ATTRIBUTES THAT ARE 1658 01:03:26,200 --> 01:03:27,040 BEING DEMANDED. 1659 01:03:27,040 --> 01:03:32,440 SO, JUST TO WRAP UP, SO HOW DO 1660 01:03:32,440 --> 01:03:36,080 WE MOVE AGRICULTURE SYSTEMS IN 1661 01:03:36,080 --> 01:03:39,760 THE 21ST CENTURY TOWARDS MORE 1662 01:03:39,760 --> 01:03:40,800 SUSTAINABLE OUTCOMES, WHAT I 1663 01:03:40,800 --> 01:03:44,680 LIKE TO CALL SUSTAINABLE 1664 01:03:44,680 --> 01:03:45,160 DEVELOPMENT PATHWAYS? 1665 01:03:45,160 --> 01:03:49,840 RECOGNIZING THAT WE HAVE THESE, 1666 01:03:49,840 --> 01:03:51,520 YOU KNOW, JUST SIMPLISTIC TERMS 1667 01:03:51,520 --> 01:03:54,720 THREE BROAD DIMENSIONS OF 1668 01:03:54,720 --> 01:03:57,080 SUSTAINABILITY, AND AGAIN TO IT 1669 01:03:57,080 --> 01:03:58,320 RATE THIS APPOINT UNIDIMENSIONAL 1670 01:03:58,320 --> 01:04:00,600 APPROACHES THAT FOCUS ON A FEW 1671 01:04:00,600 --> 01:04:03,080 DIMENSIONS BUT IGNORE OTHER 1672 01:04:03,080 --> 01:04:05,040 IMPORTANT ASPECTS WILL FAIL TO 1673 01:04:05,040 --> 01:04:07,840 BE SUSTAINABLE IN THOSE OTHER 1674 01:04:07,840 --> 01:04:09,240 RESPECTS IN MANY CASES, YOU 1675 01:04:09,240 --> 01:04:10,960 KNOW, AS ILLUSTRATED BY, YOU 1676 01:04:10,960 --> 01:04:13,400 KNOW, THE GREEN REVOLUTION 1677 01:04:13,400 --> 01:04:15,560 EMPHASIS ON HIGH YIELD AND I 1678 01:04:15,560 --> 01:04:18,400 WOULD SAY EVEN TODAY IN OUR 1679 01:04:18,400 --> 01:04:20,120 DISCUSSIONS OF CLIMATE SMART 1680 01:04:20,120 --> 01:04:21,960 AGRICULTURE, WE MAY BE FOCUSING, 1681 01:04:21,960 --> 01:04:23,920 FOR EXAMPLE, ON, YOU KNOW, 1682 01:04:23,920 --> 01:04:25,160 MITIGATION OF GREENHOUSE GASES 1683 01:04:25,160 --> 01:04:28,360 TO THE EXCLUSION OF OTHER 1684 01:04:28,360 --> 01:04:30,240 IMPORTANT ASPECTS OF THE 1685 01:04:30,240 --> 01:04:32,160 SYSTEMS, OTHER IMPORTANT QUALITY 1686 01:04:32,160 --> 01:04:37,040 ASPECTS OF FOOD, FOR EXAMPLE, 1687 01:04:37,040 --> 01:04:38,560 LIKE NUTRITIONAL CONTENT. 1688 01:04:38,560 --> 01:04:40,640 AND FINALLY, I'LL JUST MAKE THE 1689 01:04:40,640 --> 01:04:43,480 CASE FOR, YOU KNOW, HOW DO WE -- 1690 01:04:43,480 --> 01:04:46,720 IN THE POLICY DOMAIN HOW DO WE 1691 01:04:46,720 --> 01:04:47,520 REALLY GET THERE? 1692 01:04:47,520 --> 01:04:49,720 AND TO ME THE GREATEST CHALLENGE 1693 01:04:49,720 --> 01:04:53,840 IS THE LACK OF POLITICAL WILL WE 1694 01:04:53,840 --> 01:04:56,360 HAVE TO REALLY INVEST IN 1695 01:04:56,360 --> 01:04:57,960 DEVELOPING MORE SUSTAIN ANALYSIS 1696 01:04:57,960 --> 01:04:58,320 ITEMS. 1697 01:04:58,320 --> 01:05:00,120 WE KNOW A LOT ABOUT WHAT WE NEED 1698 01:05:00,120 --> 01:05:00,360 TO DO. 1699 01:05:00,360 --> 01:05:04,360 WE HAVE A LOT OF THE SCIENCE. 1700 01:05:04,360 --> 01:05:06,760 AND TO YOUR PROJECT'S POINT 1701 01:05:06,760 --> 01:05:08,760 ABOUT, YOU KNOW, EVIDENCE-BASED 1702 01:05:08,760 --> 01:05:10,680 AND WHERE DO WE NEED MORE DATA, 1703 01:05:10,680 --> 01:05:13,000 CLEARLY ONE OF OUR BIG 1704 01:05:13,000 --> 01:05:13,840 CHALLENGES NOW, YOU KNOW, KIND 1705 01:05:13,840 --> 01:05:17,080 OF THE THEME OF MY TALK, IS HOW 1706 01:05:17,080 --> 01:05:19,280 WE UNDERSTAND THE INTERACTIONS 1707 01:05:19,280 --> 01:05:22,200 AMONG THESE DIFFERENT DIMENSIONS 1708 01:05:22,200 --> 01:05:23,440 OF SUSTAINABILITY AT THE 1709 01:05:23,440 --> 01:05:25,080 PRODUCTION SYSTEM LEVEL IS THE 1710 01:05:25,080 --> 01:05:27,000 GREAT -- I WOULD SAY ONE OF THE 1711 01:05:27,000 --> 01:05:29,120 GREAT SCIENTIFIC CHALLENGES WE 1712 01:05:29,120 --> 01:05:30,400 FACE RIGHT NOW. 1713 01:05:30,400 --> 01:05:35,120 AND THEN THE SECOND PART IN THE 1714 01:05:35,120 --> 01:05:37,000 POLICY DOMAIN IS THE POLITICAL 1715 01:05:37,000 --> 01:05:41,600 WILL TO ACTUALLY TAKE THE 1716 01:05:41,600 --> 01:05:43,240 COLLECTIVE ACTIONS NEEDED TO 1717 01:05:43,240 --> 01:05:45,080 HELP INCENTIVIZE AND MOVE THESE 1718 01:05:45,080 --> 01:05:47,240 SYSTEMS EVEN IF WE KNOW WHAT -- 1719 01:05:47,240 --> 01:05:49,280 YOU KNOW, HOW TO DESIGN AND 1720 01:05:49,280 --> 01:05:56,280 CREATE MORE SUSTAINABLE SYSTEMS 1721 01:05:56,280 --> 01:05:58,040 WE HAVE TO CREATE A SYSTEM THAT 1722 01:05:58,040 --> 01:05:59,760 WILL BE ADOPTED BY FARMERS AND 1723 01:05:59,760 --> 01:06:06,240 USED, AND THAT'S ALSO A BIG 1724 01:06:06,240 --> 01:06:07,960 CHALLENGE. 1725 01:06:07,960 --> 01:06:09,760 A FINAL COMMENT, ONE EXAMPLE 1726 01:06:09,760 --> 01:06:13,000 THAT PICTURE I SHOWED EARLIER OF 1727 01:06:13,000 --> 01:06:17,080 THAT VERY LARGE MACHINE, THAT'S 1728 01:06:17,080 --> 01:06:20,800 ACTUALLY A FARMER WHO IS 1729 01:06:20,800 --> 01:06:23,240 PRODUCING WHEAT USING A VERY, 1730 01:06:23,240 --> 01:06:33,720 YOU KNOW, SUSTAINABLE SYSTEM, 1731 01:06:37,840 --> 01:06:39,840 PRODUCING WHEAT SO THE SOIL 1732 01:06:39,840 --> 01:06:41,800 DOESN'T HAVE TO BE TILLED WHICH 1733 01:06:41,800 --> 01:06:42,520 INCREASES AND MAINTAINS MORE 1734 01:06:42,520 --> 01:06:46,400 CARBON IN THE SOIL AND HELPS 1735 01:06:46,400 --> 01:06:46,920 MITIGATE GREENHOUSE GAS 1736 01:06:46,920 --> 01:06:50,480 EMISSIONS FROM THOSE KINDS OF 1737 01:06:50,480 --> 01:06:50,960 AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS. 1738 01:06:50,960 --> 01:06:52,640 WHEN WE LOOK AT THOSE SYSTEMS 1739 01:06:52,640 --> 01:06:55,640 WHAT WE FIND IS TO IMPROVE THEIR 1740 01:06:55,640 --> 01:06:58,360 ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE AS WELL AS 1741 01:06:58,360 --> 01:07:01,760 THEIR SUSTAINABILITY IN TERMS OF 1742 01:07:01,760 --> 01:07:05,800 GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS, THOSE 1743 01:07:05,800 --> 01:07:07,040 KINDS OF MORE SUSTAINABLE 1744 01:07:07,040 --> 01:07:11,080 SYSTEMS ARE NOT COMPETITIVE WITH 1745 01:07:11,080 --> 01:07:15,560 JUST THE SIMPLE, YOU KNOW, 1746 01:07:15,560 --> 01:07:18,000 SIMPLER MORE CONVENTIONAL 1747 01:07:18,000 --> 01:07:22,240 TILLAGE, MONO-CROP SYSTEMS. 1748 01:07:22,240 --> 01:07:23,600 AND EITHER HIGHER PRICES, FOR 1749 01:07:23,600 --> 01:07:24,920 EXAMPLE, FOR THE BIOFUEL CROP 1750 01:07:24,920 --> 01:07:29,800 THAT COULD BE ROTATED WITH THAT 1751 01:07:29,800 --> 01:07:36,160 WHEAT OR SOMETHING LIKE PAYING 1752 01:07:36,160 --> 01:07:43,720 FORMERS FOR THE CARBON 1753 01:07:43,720 --> 01:07:45,440 SEQUESTERED IN THE SYSTEMS IS 1754 01:07:45,440 --> 01:07:47,160 NEEDED VERSUS THE MORE 1755 01:07:47,160 --> 01:07:47,600 CONVENTIONAL SYSTEM. 1756 01:07:47,600 --> 01:07:49,800 THAT'S THE ECONOMIC CHALLENGE WE 1757 01:07:49,800 --> 01:07:52,560 FACE AT THE FARM LEVEL TO NOT 1758 01:07:52,560 --> 01:07:55,640 ONLY HAVE THE SCIENCE TO DEVELOP 1759 01:07:55,640 --> 01:07:56,600 THE TECHNOLOGIES AND SYSTEMS 1760 01:07:56,600 --> 01:07:59,240 THAT CAN BE MORE SUSTAINABLE BUT 1761 01:07:59,240 --> 01:08:01,520 ALSO MAKING THEM ECONOMICALLY 1762 01:08:01,520 --> 01:08:03,680 VIABLE FOR THE FARMERS WHO NEED 1763 01:08:03,680 --> 01:08:04,840 TO ADOPT THEM. 1764 01:08:04,840 --> 01:08:07,280 WELL, SO I'M JUST GOING TO STOP 1765 01:08:07,280 --> 01:08:07,680 THERE. 1766 01:08:07,680 --> 01:08:09,200 THANKS FOR THE OPPORTUNITY TO 1767 01:08:09,200 --> 01:08:12,560 SHARE SOME OF MY IDEAS WITH YOU, 1768 01:08:12,560 --> 01:08:15,640 AND JUST TO LIST A FEW OF THE 1769 01:08:15,640 --> 01:08:19,920 SOURCES THAT I DREW ON FOR THIS 1770 01:08:19,920 --> 01:08:21,120 PRESENTATION AND I LOOK FORWARD 1771 01:08:21,120 --> 01:08:28,000 TO THE DISCUSSION. 1772 01:08:28,000 --> 01:08:29,240 >> EXCELLENT. 1773 01:08:29,240 --> 01:08:30,880 WE HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY HERE, 1774 01:08:30,880 --> 01:08:32,160 JUST AS BEFORE, FOR SOME 1775 01:08:32,160 --> 01:08:34,640 DISCUSSION BASED ON DR. ANTLE'S 1776 01:08:34,640 --> 01:08:35,160 CONTRIBUTION. 1777 01:08:35,160 --> 01:08:37,760 IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS YOU'RE 1778 01:08:37,760 --> 01:08:40,280 WELCOME TO UNMUTE YOURSELF, AND 1779 01:08:40,280 --> 01:08:41,880 ASK THOSE DIRECTLY. 1780 01:08:41,880 --> 01:08:43,920 TO SEND THEM VIA E-MAIL OR TO 1781 01:08:43,920 --> 01:08:45,960 PUT THEM IN THE CHAT. 1782 01:08:45,960 --> 01:08:47,360 IT LOOKS LIKE DAN IS GOING TO 1783 01:08:47,360 --> 01:08:48,040 START US OFF. 1784 01:08:48,040 --> 01:08:50,720 DAN, WOULD YOU LIKE TO START? 1785 01:08:50,720 --> 01:08:52,440 >> THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR THAT 1786 01:08:52,440 --> 01:08:53,000 PRESENTATION. 1787 01:08:53,000 --> 01:08:54,320 THAT WAS GREAT. 1788 01:08:54,320 --> 01:08:57,440 IT REALLY THINK DOES IN MANY 1789 01:08:57,440 --> 01:09:00,080 RESPECTS REINFORCE THE NEED FOR 1790 01:09:00,080 --> 01:09:00,880 THIS PROJECT. 1791 01:09:00,880 --> 01:09:02,840 PARTICULARLY I THINK REINFORCES 1792 01:09:02,840 --> 01:09:05,440 THE NOTION OF ECOLOGY, AND YOUR 1793 01:09:05,440 --> 01:09:07,080 POINT ABOUT EMPHASIZING ONE 1794 01:09:07,080 --> 01:09:08,320 COMPONENT OF THE SUSTAINABILITY 1795 01:09:08,320 --> 01:09:10,920 PICTURE TO THE EXCLUSION OF 1796 01:09:10,920 --> 01:09:11,280 OTHERS. 1797 01:09:11,280 --> 01:09:14,240 THE QUESTION THAT I HAVE FOR YOU 1798 01:09:14,240 --> 01:09:15,760 WITH REGARD TO THIS SPECIFIC 1799 01:09:15,760 --> 01:09:17,520 CHALLENGE OF OUR PROJECT IS WHAT 1800 01:09:17,520 --> 01:09:21,240 SORT OF MEASURES AND METRICS CAN 1801 01:09:21,240 --> 01:09:25,040 WE USE TO GET AT THE PUTTING 1802 01:09:25,040 --> 01:09:32,920 THIS ECOLOGICAL APPROACH INTO 1803 01:09:32,920 --> 01:09:33,480 APPLICATION? 1804 01:09:33,480 --> 01:09:34,040 >> SURE. 1805 01:09:34,040 --> 01:09:37,320 ACTUALLY WE'VE PUT TOGETHER SOME 1806 01:09:37,320 --> 01:09:42,440 TABLE ALSO OF INDICATORS WE CAN 1807 01:09:42,440 --> 01:09:43,280 USE FOR AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS AND 1808 01:09:43,280 --> 01:09:46,920 I COULD SHARE SOME OF THOSE WITH 1809 01:09:46,920 --> 01:09:47,280 YOU. 1810 01:09:47,280 --> 01:09:49,000 SO THERE'S STANDARD ONES IN THE 1811 01:09:49,000 --> 01:09:55,560 ECONOMIC REALM, YOU KNOW, LIKE I 1812 01:09:55,560 --> 01:09:57,360 MENTIONED CROP YIELD, 1813 01:09:57,360 --> 01:10:02,560 PROFITABILITY, FARM INCOME, AND 1814 01:10:02,560 --> 01:10:04,200 SO FORTH, THE ECONOMIC 1815 01:10:04,200 --> 01:10:06,200 DIMENSION, AND DATA TO VARYING 1816 01:10:06,200 --> 01:10:07,320 DEGREES ARE OUT THERE TO 1817 01:10:07,320 --> 01:10:08,080 QUANTIFY THOSE. 1818 01:10:08,080 --> 01:10:11,440 OF COURSE IN THE ENVIRONMENTAL 1819 01:10:11,440 --> 01:10:12,760 DIMENSION, WE HAVE METRICS ON 1820 01:10:12,760 --> 01:10:14,480 BOTH AT THE FARM LEVEL AND SORT 1821 01:10:14,480 --> 01:10:16,280 OF WHAT GOES OFF THE FARM. 1822 01:10:16,280 --> 01:10:18,320 FOR EXAMPLE, THAT STUDY I WAS 1823 01:10:18,320 --> 01:10:21,080 JUST MENTIONING ON WHEAT SYSTEMS 1824 01:10:21,080 --> 01:10:23,120 IN THE NORTHWEST, WE 1825 01:10:23,120 --> 01:10:26,120 INCORPORATED A LIFE CYCLE 1826 01:10:26,120 --> 01:10:30,920 ANALYSIS THAT LOOKED AT THE SORT 1827 01:10:30,920 --> 01:10:31,920 OF NET GREENHOUSE GAS 1828 01:10:31,920 --> 01:10:34,080 CONTRIBUTION OF THAT TYPE OF 1829 01:10:34,080 --> 01:10:38,400 SYSTEM AT THE FARM AND KIND OF 1830 01:10:38,400 --> 01:10:40,000 ALSO EXTENDING OUT, YOU KNOW, 1831 01:10:40,000 --> 01:10:42,560 SORT OF THE INPUTS GOING INTO 1832 01:10:42,560 --> 01:10:45,720 THE SYSTEM AND ALSO THE PRODUCTS 1833 01:10:45,720 --> 01:10:50,240 GOING OUT INTO THE SUPPLY CHAIN. 1834 01:10:50,240 --> 01:10:55,120 I THINK -- AND MANY MODELS AND 1835 01:10:55,120 --> 01:10:56,680 METRICS OUT THERE NOWADAYS IN 1836 01:10:56,680 --> 01:10:59,840 THE ENVIRONMENTAL DIMENSION THAT 1837 01:10:59,840 --> 01:11:03,960 CAN BE INCORPORATED, AND WE 1838 01:11:03,960 --> 01:11:05,640 ACTUALLY DID A PROJECT A YEAR OR 1839 01:11:05,640 --> 01:11:09,480 TWO AGO FOR THE INTERNATIONAL 1840 01:11:09,480 --> 01:11:10,080 AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH PROGRAMS 1841 01:11:10,080 --> 01:11:11,800 WHERE WE WERE LOOKING AT SOME OF 1842 01:11:11,800 --> 01:11:13,560 THESE QUESTIONS, AND WE MADE THE 1843 01:11:13,560 --> 01:11:16,520 POINT THAT THE PLACE WHETHER WE 1844 01:11:16,520 --> 01:11:17,400 REALLY -- THAT THE BIGGER 1845 01:11:17,400 --> 01:11:18,720 CHALLENGES I THINK IN THE 1846 01:11:18,720 --> 01:11:20,360 METRICS ARE -- AND THIS IS WHAT 1847 01:11:20,360 --> 01:11:23,080 YOU FOLKS KNOW ABOUT, MORE THAN 1848 01:11:23,080 --> 01:11:29,240 I, BUT WHEN WE GET INTO THE, YOU 1849 01:11:29,240 --> 01:11:31,320 KNOW, HUMAN NUTRITION, AND FOOD 1850 01:11:31,320 --> 01:11:35,480 QUALITY ASPECTS RELATED TO THAT, 1851 01:11:35,480 --> 01:11:38,000 THAT THE DATA CHALLENGES GET 1852 01:11:38,000 --> 01:11:39,200 PRETTY DIFFICULT. 1853 01:11:39,200 --> 01:11:45,680 AND EVEN MORE SO IF YOU WANT TO 1854 01:11:45,680 --> 01:11:46,920 TALK ABOUT SOME OTHER 1855 01:11:46,920 --> 01:11:48,640 ATTRIBUTES, YOU MIGHT CALL THEM 1856 01:11:48,640 --> 01:11:50,600 SOCIAL ATTRIBUTES, RELATED TO 1857 01:11:50,600 --> 01:11:54,640 THINGS LIKE ANIMAL WELFARE, 1858 01:11:54,640 --> 01:11:55,960 GENDER-RELATED ISSUES, FOR 1859 01:11:55,960 --> 01:11:59,040 EXAMPLE, WHERE WE REALLY DON'T 1860 01:11:59,040 --> 01:11:59,600 HAVE MODELS. 1861 01:11:59,600 --> 01:12:02,320 YOU KNOW, WE HAVE WAYS TO 1862 01:12:02,320 --> 01:12:06,040 MEASURE SOME OF THE THINGS WE 1863 01:12:06,040 --> 01:12:10,600 THINK ARE IMPORTANT, BUT AS YOU 1864 01:12:10,600 --> 01:12:14,200 KNOW, FOR EXAMPLE, LOOK AT THE 1865 01:12:14,200 --> 01:12:17,320 NUTRITIONAL ISSUES RELATED TO 1866 01:12:17,320 --> 01:12:19,400 PRODUCTION SYSTEMS IN MOST SMALL 1867 01:12:19,400 --> 01:12:20,800 SCALE FARMING SYSTEMS IN UGANDA 1868 01:12:20,800 --> 01:12:22,560 LIKE THAT PICTURE I SHOWED YOU, 1869 01:12:22,560 --> 01:12:25,200 TO HAVE THE KIND OF DATA WE NEED 1870 01:12:25,200 --> 01:12:26,160 ABOUT WHAT PEOPLE ACTUALLY 1871 01:12:26,160 --> 01:12:28,800 CONSUME AND HOW DIFFERENT 1872 01:12:28,800 --> 01:12:30,000 SYSTEMS IMPACT THEIR NUTRITION, 1873 01:12:30,000 --> 01:12:32,200 YOU KNOW, IS VERY CHALLENGING. 1874 01:12:32,200 --> 01:12:39,760 SO THE DATA CHALLENGE THERE IS 1875 01:12:39,760 --> 01:12:40,120 VERY HIGH. 1876 01:12:40,120 --> 01:12:41,720 >> THANKS SO MUCH FOR THAT 1877 01:12:41,720 --> 01:12:42,560 RESPONSE. 1878 01:12:42,560 --> 01:12:44,120 WE HAVE ANOTHER QUESTION IN THE 1879 01:12:44,120 --> 01:12:44,560 CHAT. 1880 01:12:44,560 --> 01:12:47,040 CAN YOU GIVE A PERSPECTIVE ON 1881 01:12:47,040 --> 01:12:50,200 THE ROLE OF ANIMALS IN BROAD 1882 01:12:50,200 --> 01:12:50,560 FARM ECOLOGY? 1883 01:12:50,560 --> 01:12:59,320 FOR EXAMPLE SMALL SCALE VERSUS 1884 01:12:59,320 --> 01:13:00,040 INDUSTRIALIZED APPROACHES. 1885 01:13:00,040 --> 01:13:01,640 >> HMM. 1886 01:13:01,640 --> 01:13:04,920 WELL, I CAN TRY. 1887 01:13:04,920 --> 01:13:07,440 AND I HAVE A FEELING ROBIN, YOU 1888 01:13:07,440 --> 01:13:08,280 COULD PROBABLY ANSWER THAT 1889 01:13:08,280 --> 01:13:10,960 QUESTION BETTER THAN I CAN. 1890 01:13:10,960 --> 01:13:13,120 I'LL TRY TO COMMENT ON IT A BIT 1891 01:13:13,120 --> 01:13:18,560 MORE FROM THE ECONOMIC SIDE. 1892 01:13:18,560 --> 01:13:21,320 SO, I THINK IT REALLY -- YOU 1893 01:13:21,320 --> 01:13:23,960 KNOW, ONE OF THE THINGS THAT'S 1894 01:13:23,960 --> 01:13:27,160 BEING DISCUSSED A LOT TODAY, I'M 1895 01:13:27,160 --> 01:13:29,000 SURE YOU GUYS KNOW, IS DIFFERENT 1896 01:13:29,000 --> 01:13:34,120 LABELS, BUT I'LL USE THE TERM 1897 01:13:34,120 --> 01:13:35,240 REGENERATIVE AGRICULTURE, ONE 1898 01:13:35,240 --> 01:13:36,560 THAT'S POPULAR TODAY BUT WE 1899 01:13:36,560 --> 01:13:39,080 HAVE, YOU KNOW, CALL IT 1900 01:13:39,080 --> 01:13:44,000 SUSTAINABLE, WE CAN CALL IT 1901 01:13:44,000 --> 01:13:44,480 OTHER THINGS. 1902 01:13:44,480 --> 01:13:46,520 AGAIN, THIS POINT THAT I WOULD 1903 01:13:46,520 --> 01:13:53,640 EMPHASIZE HAS TO DO WITH SCALE. 1904 01:13:53,640 --> 01:13:56,480 AND WE KNOW THAT IN SOME 1905 01:13:56,480 --> 01:13:57,760 RESPECTS -- WELL, YOU KNOW, WE 1906 01:13:57,760 --> 01:14:01,000 ALL KNOW THAT THERE ARE MANY 1907 01:14:01,000 --> 01:14:02,360 PROBLEMS WITH LARGE SCALE LIVE 1908 01:14:02,360 --> 01:14:07,000 STOCK PRODUCTION NOW IN TERMS OF 1909 01:14:07,000 --> 01:14:08,640 SUSTAINABILITY, AND PARTICULARLY 1910 01:14:08,640 --> 01:14:10,480 GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS, 1911 01:14:10,480 --> 01:14:12,680 METHANE EMISSIONS IN PARTICULAR. 1912 01:14:12,680 --> 01:14:15,680 AND THEN CARRY THAT OVER TO THE 1913 01:14:15,680 --> 01:14:17,480 HEALTH SIDE, ON CONSUMPTION SIDE 1914 01:14:17,480 --> 01:14:21,240 IN TERMS OF DIETS AND SO FORTH. 1915 01:14:21,240 --> 01:14:21,920 JUST SPEAKING ON THE 1916 01:14:21,920 --> 01:14:24,200 ENVIRONMENTAL SIDE OF THE 1917 01:14:24,200 --> 01:14:29,560 PRODUCTION SYSTEMS, I THINK BIG 1918 01:14:29,560 --> 01:14:35,440 CHALLENGE IS THAT AT VERY SMALL 1919 01:14:35,440 --> 01:14:37,080 SCALE THE AGRICULTURE SYSTEMS 1920 01:14:37,080 --> 01:14:37,880 ARE VERY INEFFICIENT. 1921 01:14:37,880 --> 01:14:42,240 WE GET A LITTLE BIT LARGER SCALE 1922 01:14:42,240 --> 01:14:46,080 WHERE ACTUALLY HAVING MIXED CROP 1923 01:14:46,080 --> 01:14:48,120 LIVESTOCK SYSTEMS ARE VERY 1924 01:14:48,120 --> 01:14:50,640 SUSTAINABLE, IN A LOT OF THE 1925 01:14:50,640 --> 01:14:53,520 ENVIRONMENTAL DIMENSIONS, 1926 01:14:53,520 --> 01:14:54,360 ALTHOUGH THEY ARE STILL 1927 01:14:54,360 --> 01:14:56,160 RELATIVELY SMALL AND THEREFORE 1928 01:14:56,160 --> 01:14:57,640 NOT PRODUCING INCOMES THAT ARE 1929 01:14:57,640 --> 01:15:00,720 VERY HIGH, BUT THEN WHEN WE WANT 1930 01:15:00,720 --> 01:15:03,640 TO GO BEYOND THAT TO IMPROVE THE 1931 01:15:03,640 --> 01:15:06,200 INCOMES THAT THOSE SYSTEMS 1932 01:15:06,200 --> 01:15:08,680 PRODUCE FOR PEOPLE, THEY BECOME 1933 01:15:08,680 --> 01:15:09,800 LESS SUSTAINABLE BECAUSE THEY 1934 01:15:09,800 --> 01:15:14,160 BECOME LESS -- THEY BECOME MORE 1935 01:15:14,160 --> 01:15:15,240 SPECIALIZED, LESS INTEGRATED. 1936 01:15:15,240 --> 01:15:19,520 AND SO I THINK THE CHALLENGE WE 1937 01:15:19,520 --> 01:15:21,080 FACE TODAY IN TRYING TO, YOU 1938 01:15:21,080 --> 01:15:23,480 KNOW, TAKE, YOU KNOW, WHAT HAS 1939 01:15:23,480 --> 01:15:26,680 BECOME THESE VERY, VERY LARGE 1940 01:15:26,680 --> 01:15:27,320 SCALE, HIGHLY SPECIALIZED 1941 01:15:27,320 --> 01:15:31,240 SYSTEMS, AND MAKE THEM MORE 1942 01:15:31,240 --> 01:15:32,120 SUSTAINABLE, IS THAT WE'RE -- 1943 01:15:32,120 --> 01:15:36,600 YOU KNOW, WE'RE TRYING TO BRING 1944 01:15:36,600 --> 01:15:41,480 THEM BACK TO THE THE GOOD OLD S 1945 01:15:41,480 --> 01:15:43,840 BUT THE GOOD OLD DAYS HAD 1946 01:15:43,840 --> 01:15:44,680 ISSUES, DIDN'T PRODUCE HIGH 1947 01:15:44,680 --> 01:15:45,880 INCOMES FOR PEOPLE ON THE FARM 1948 01:15:45,880 --> 01:15:47,400 SO THAT'S NOT VERY ACCEPTABLE. 1949 01:15:47,400 --> 01:15:49,960 WHAT WE NEED TO DO I THINK 1950 01:15:49,960 --> 01:15:51,440 RATHER THAN TRYING TO 1951 01:15:51,440 --> 01:15:54,440 NECESSARILY GO BACK TO THE OLD 1952 01:15:54,440 --> 01:15:57,520 DAYS IS TO TRY TO USE THE 1953 01:15:57,520 --> 01:16:02,200 SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY WE HAVE 1954 01:16:02,200 --> 01:16:05,480 TODAY TO MAKE, YOU KNOW, LARGE 1955 01:16:05,480 --> 01:16:07,920 SCALE EFFICIENCIES ITEMS MORE 1956 01:16:07,920 --> 01:16:18,320 SUSTAINABLE IF THAT'S -- 1957 01:16:23,160 --> 01:16:24,480 EFFICIENT SYSTEMS MORE 1958 01:16:24,480 --> 01:16:24,920 SUSTAINABLE. 1959 01:16:24,920 --> 01:16:26,160 WE NEED TO RECOGNIZE THERE'S 1960 01:16:26,160 --> 01:16:28,600 GOING TO BE AN ECONOMIC COST TO 1961 01:16:28,600 --> 01:16:30,120 SIMPLY BRINGING THOSE SYSTEMS 1962 01:16:30,120 --> 01:16:32,320 BACK AND MAKING THEM SOMEWHAT 1963 01:16:32,320 --> 01:16:34,280 MORE ENVIRONMENTALLY AND MORE 1964 01:16:34,280 --> 01:16:35,280 SUSTAINABLE IN OTHER DIMENSIONS, 1965 01:16:35,280 --> 01:16:36,280 MAYBE THAT'S JUST THE PRICE WE 1966 01:16:36,280 --> 01:16:37,120 HAVE TO PAY. 1967 01:16:37,120 --> 01:16:38,800 AGAIN, THERE ARE SOME TRADEOFFS 1968 01:16:38,800 --> 01:16:39,160 THERE. 1969 01:16:39,160 --> 01:16:44,160 WE HAVE TO RECOGNIZE AND ACCEPT 1970 01:16:44,160 --> 01:16:47,200 THEM AND DEAL WITH. 1971 01:16:47,200 --> 01:16:48,000 IMPORTANT POINT IN RELATION TO 1972 01:16:48,000 --> 01:16:50,920 THE FARM PEOPLE WE HAVE TO 1973 01:16:50,920 --> 01:16:52,240 RECOGNIZE, WE THE CONSUMERS, 1974 01:16:52,240 --> 01:16:53,440 URBAN CONSUMERS, HAVE TO 1975 01:16:53,440 --> 01:16:55,280 UNDERSTAND THAT'S IMPOSING A 1976 01:16:55,280 --> 01:16:56,400 COST ON THEM, ECONOMIC COST, 1977 01:16:56,400 --> 01:16:58,760 THAT HAS TO BE PAID BY SOMEONE. 1978 01:16:58,760 --> 01:17:01,920 IF IT'S JUST TO BE PAID BY THEM, 1979 01:17:01,920 --> 01:17:03,800 IT'S GOING TO BE A HARD -- 1980 01:17:03,800 --> 01:17:06,120 YOU'LL HAVE A HARD TIME 1981 01:17:06,120 --> 01:17:07,240 CONVINCING THEM THAT THEY SHOULD 1982 01:17:07,240 --> 01:17:09,320 DO IT. 1983 01:17:09,320 --> 01:17:14,560 I DON'T FLOW -- I DON'T KNOW IF 1984 01:17:14,560 --> 01:17:15,360 THAT ANSWERED YOUR QUESTION. 1985 01:17:15,360 --> 01:17:18,240 >> YOU GOT A THANK UP IN THE 1986 01:17:18,240 --> 01:17:18,880 CHAT. 1987 01:17:18,880 --> 01:17:20,360 >> CAME CLOSE. 1988 01:17:20,360 --> 01:17:21,640 VETS COMPLICATED. 1989 01:17:21,640 --> 01:17:23,200 THIS IS NANCY KREBS. 1990 01:17:23,200 --> 01:17:24,280 I POSED THE QUESTION. 1991 01:17:24,280 --> 01:17:30,400 BUT I THINK IT'S SO TRUE THAT 1992 01:17:30,400 --> 01:17:32,360 THE MARKET AND HAVING THE 1993 01:17:32,360 --> 01:17:35,680 FARMERS BE ABLE TO HAVE A 1994 01:17:35,680 --> 01:17:39,080 SUSTAINABLE LIFE, YOU KNOW, FOR 1995 01:17:39,080 --> 01:17:41,320 THEMSELVES, ALSO PLAYS INTO 1996 01:17:41,320 --> 01:17:41,560 THIS. 1997 01:17:41,560 --> 01:17:42,960 AND SO WHAT I'M THINKING ABOUT 1998 01:17:42,960 --> 01:17:45,280 IS ALL THE MESSAGES ABOUT NO 1999 01:17:45,280 --> 01:17:47,240 MEAT, BUT IT'S REALLY MORE ABOUT 2000 01:17:47,240 --> 01:17:49,760 NO MEAT THE WAY WE'RE CURRENTLY 2001 01:17:49,760 --> 01:17:52,280 PRODUCING IT, AND WOULD WE BE 2002 01:17:52,280 --> 01:17:53,720 BETTER OFF HAVING REGENERATIVE 2003 01:17:53,720 --> 01:17:56,120 AGRICULTURE THAT HAS A WHOLE 2004 01:17:56,120 --> 01:17:57,040 ECOLOGY ITSELF, YOU KNOW, WE'VE 2005 01:17:57,040 --> 01:18:01,240 LOST A LOT OF THE ECOLOGY IN 2006 01:18:01,240 --> 01:18:02,680 FARMING AS IT IS CURRENTLY. 2007 01:18:02,680 --> 01:18:03,480 >> EXACTLY. 2008 01:18:03,480 --> 01:18:06,200 NO, I TOTALLY AGREE WITH THAT, 2009 01:18:06,200 --> 01:18:10,040 BUT IF IT'S LESS PROFITABLE FOR 2010 01:18:10,040 --> 01:18:10,320 THE FARMER. 2011 01:18:10,320 --> 01:18:10,720 >> YEAH. 2012 01:18:10,720 --> 01:18:12,360 >> WE'VE GOT TO UNDERSTAND 2013 01:18:12,360 --> 01:18:12,560 THAT. 2014 01:18:12,560 --> 01:18:12,840 >> RIGHT. 2015 01:18:12,840 --> 01:18:14,520 >> AND DEAL WITH THAT. 2016 01:18:14,520 --> 01:18:14,840 >> YES. 2017 01:18:14,840 --> 01:18:17,360 >> SO JUST A QUICK ANECDOTE, 2018 01:18:17,360 --> 01:18:20,680 YOU KNOW, SO A FEW YEARS AGO I 2019 01:18:20,680 --> 01:18:24,640 WAS WORKING WITH AN ORGANIZATION 2020 01:18:24,640 --> 01:18:25,400 CALLED WORLD FISH, WHICH, YOU 2021 01:18:25,400 --> 01:18:30,080 KNOW, ONE OF THEIR BIG 2022 01:18:30,080 --> 01:18:33,800 TECHNOLOGIES IS INTEGRATING POND 2023 01:18:33,800 --> 01:18:34,800 AQUACULTURE WITH SMALL-SCALE 2024 01:18:34,800 --> 01:18:35,800 LIVESTOCK AND CROP PRODUCTION, 2025 01:18:35,800 --> 01:18:40,160 YOU KNOW, IN AFRICA, SOUTH ASIA, 2026 01:18:40,160 --> 01:18:41,440 THOSE PARTS OF THE WORLD. 2027 01:18:41,440 --> 01:18:45,840 WHAT YOU FIND WITH THOSE SYSTEMS 2028 01:18:45,840 --> 01:18:50,560 AT A SMALL SCALE BY RECYCLING 2029 01:18:50,560 --> 01:18:51,400 NUTRIENTS IN THE SYSTEMS THEY 2030 01:18:51,400 --> 01:18:53,040 CAN BE MORE EFFICIENT AND MORE 2031 01:18:53,040 --> 01:18:54,680 SUSTAINABLE, NO QUESTION. 2032 01:18:54,680 --> 01:18:55,800 DATA SHOW THAT CLEARLY. 2033 01:18:55,800 --> 01:18:59,000 BUT WHAT I FOUND HAVING WHEN YOU 2034 01:18:59,000 --> 01:19:00,640 GO TO BANGLADESH, GO ON FARMS, 2035 01:19:00,640 --> 01:19:02,280 TALK TO FARMERS, WHAT YOU FIND 2036 01:19:02,280 --> 01:19:04,200 IS THAT TO GO BEYOND A CERTAIN 2037 01:19:04,200 --> 01:19:06,240 SCALE AS THEY WANT TO SCALE UP 2038 01:19:06,240 --> 01:19:09,480 AND MAKE BETTER INCOMES FOR 2039 01:19:09,480 --> 01:19:14,520 THEMSELVES, THAT INTEGRATED 2040 01:19:14,520 --> 01:19:15,760 SYSTEM DOESN'T WORK 2041 01:19:15,760 --> 01:19:16,120 ECONOMICALLY. 2042 01:19:16,120 --> 01:19:19,360 AND SO THAT, TO ME, THAT WAS 2043 01:19:19,360 --> 01:19:22,760 JUST A WONDERFUL ILLUSTRATION OF 2044 01:19:22,760 --> 01:19:23,560 THIS CHALLENGE. 2045 01:19:23,560 --> 01:19:25,800 YOU KNOW, AND SO HERE WE HAVE 2046 01:19:25,800 --> 01:19:27,120 THIS GREAT RESEARCH SHOWS HERE 2047 01:19:27,120 --> 01:19:29,880 IS HOW TO TAKE SUPER SMALL 2048 01:19:29,880 --> 01:19:32,040 REALLY OR NOT VERY SUSTAINABLE 2049 01:19:32,040 --> 01:19:35,200 FARMS, PUT THE PONDS ON THEM, 2050 01:19:35,200 --> 01:19:36,520 MAKE THEM MORE SUSTAINABLE, AND 2051 01:19:36,520 --> 01:19:40,360 WE TRY TO GO THE NEXT STEP UP 2052 01:19:40,360 --> 01:19:43,040 AND IT FALLS APART. 2053 01:19:43,040 --> 01:19:44,440 SO, THESE ARE THE COMPLEX 2054 01:19:44,440 --> 01:19:46,680 CHALLENGES WE FACE IN TRYING TO 2055 01:19:46,680 --> 01:19:51,200 DEAL WITH THESE PROBLEMS. 2056 01:19:51,200 --> 01:19:53,960 >> THANK YOU. 2057 01:19:53,960 --> 01:19:59,160 >> WE'LL GO OVER TO MATT NOW. 2058 01:19:59,160 --> 01:19:59,840 >> GREAT. 2059 01:19:59,840 --> 01:20:00,960 THANKS, JOHN. 2060 01:20:00,960 --> 01:20:02,920 I HAVE TWO QUESTIONS BUT I'LL 2061 01:20:02,920 --> 01:20:04,760 START WITH ONE AND IF I HAVE 2062 01:20:04,760 --> 01:20:08,240 TIME I'LL ASK THE SECOND ONE. 2063 01:20:08,240 --> 01:20:10,440 YOU WERE SAYING A LOT OF PEOPLE 2064 01:20:10,440 --> 01:20:12,960 FOCUS TOO NARROWLY ON CLIMATE TO 2065 01:20:12,960 --> 01:20:16,040 THE EXCLUSION OF OTHER THINGS, I 2066 01:20:16,040 --> 01:20:18,280 AGREE, AND PART OF OUR FRAMEWORK 2067 01:20:18,280 --> 01:20:19,560 IS BROADENING THAT LENS TO 2068 01:20:19,560 --> 01:20:21,640 THINGS BEYOND CLIMATE. 2069 01:20:21,640 --> 01:20:24,240 BUT I WONDER IF WE WERE ALSO 2070 01:20:24,240 --> 01:20:25,080 TALKING ABOUT TWO DIFFERENT 2071 01:20:25,080 --> 01:20:27,000 THINGS IN THAT YOU'RE SAYING THE 2072 01:20:27,000 --> 01:20:30,080 OVERFOCUS ON CLIMATE IS REALLY 2073 01:20:30,080 --> 01:20:32,920 TALKING ABOUT THE OVERFOCUS ON 2074 01:20:32,920 --> 01:20:35,560 SUSTAINABILITY OF A FARM AND THE 2075 01:20:35,560 --> 01:20:37,400 LOWERING THE FOOTPRINT OF HOW 2076 01:20:37,400 --> 01:20:40,600 MUCH A FARM WILL FEEDBACK TO THE 2077 01:20:40,600 --> 01:20:43,000 GLOBAL EITHER CLIMATE SYSTEM OR 2078 01:20:43,000 --> 01:20:45,720 ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEM WRIT LARGE. 2079 01:20:45,720 --> 01:20:46,680 AND, YOU KNOW, THAT'S GOING TO 2080 01:20:46,680 --> 01:20:48,240 BE A PART OF WHAT WE'RE DOING, 2081 01:20:48,240 --> 01:20:49,560 PART OF OUR WORKING GROUP. 2082 01:20:49,560 --> 01:20:52,520 A LOT OF IT IS REALLY FOCUSED ON 2083 01:20:52,520 --> 01:20:56,520 HOW CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENT THT 2084 01:20:56,520 --> 01:20:58,080 IS OUTSIDE THE FARM IS COMING TO 2085 01:20:58,080 --> 01:20:58,920 IMPACT THE FARM. 2086 01:20:58,920 --> 01:21:01,440 HOW CLIMATE CHANGE AND OTHER 2087 01:21:01,440 --> 01:21:02,680 ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGES MIGHT 2088 01:21:02,680 --> 01:21:05,640 IMPACT ON FARM OPERATIONS OR 2089 01:21:05,640 --> 01:21:07,360 SUSTAINABILITY OF FARMING 2090 01:21:07,360 --> 01:21:08,200 OPERATIONS. 2091 01:21:08,200 --> 01:21:11,280 SO FROM YOUR ECONOMICS 2092 01:21:11,280 --> 01:21:11,960 PERSPECTIVE DO YOU FEEL LIKE 2093 01:21:11,960 --> 01:21:15,320 THERE ARE ANY THINGS THERE THAT 2094 01:21:15,320 --> 01:21:16,360 WE SHOULD INCLUDE IN TERMS OF 2095 01:21:16,360 --> 01:21:18,640 THE BREADTH OF THE TYPES OF 2096 01:21:18,640 --> 01:21:21,840 STRESSORS THAT MIGHT AFFECT A 2097 01:21:21,840 --> 01:21:25,480 FARM, OR IN TERMS OF DISCUSSION, 2098 01:21:25,480 --> 01:21:27,840 THINGS WE MIGHT WANT TO INCLUDE 2099 01:21:27,840 --> 01:21:30,640 FOR CONTEXT, SO WAYS THAT A 2100 01:21:30,640 --> 01:21:33,160 FARMER MIGHT, YOU KNOW, NEED TO 2101 01:21:33,160 --> 01:21:36,640 ADAPT OR NOT ADAPT TO A LOT OF 2102 01:21:36,640 --> 01:21:41,800 THESE DIFFERENT STRESSORS BASED 2103 01:21:41,800 --> 01:21:43,600 ON ECONOMIC FORCES? 2104 01:21:43,600 --> 01:21:49,480 >> HMM. 2105 01:21:49,480 --> 01:21:52,440 SO, YEAH, I WILL SAY JUST A 2106 01:21:52,440 --> 01:21:54,760 QUICK THOUGHT, TO SOME DEGREE 2107 01:21:54,760 --> 01:21:57,680 THAT COMMENT OF MINE ABOUT, YOU 2108 01:21:57,680 --> 01:22:00,080 KNOW, FOCUSING, BEING TOO 2109 01:22:00,080 --> 01:22:01,520 CLIMATE CENTRIC IS MORE ON THE 2110 01:22:01,520 --> 01:22:02,920 MITIGATION SIDE. 2111 01:22:02,920 --> 01:22:04,920 YOUR DASHED ARROW. 2112 01:22:04,920 --> 01:22:06,920 THAT FEEDBACK PART FROM THE PART 2113 01:22:06,920 --> 01:22:09,760 FROM AGRICULTURE TO THE CLIMATE. 2114 01:22:09,760 --> 01:22:12,360 WHERE THE CONCERN I'VE HAD IS 2115 01:22:12,360 --> 01:22:14,440 THAT PEOPLE WHO FOCUS POLICY 2116 01:22:14,440 --> 01:22:16,160 JUST ON GREENHOUSE GAS 2117 01:22:16,160 --> 01:22:19,680 EMISSIONS, FOR EXAMPLE, TO THE 2118 01:22:19,680 --> 01:22:20,680 EXCLUSION OF OTHER 2119 01:22:20,680 --> 01:22:21,040 CONSIDERATIONS. 2120 01:22:21,040 --> 01:22:28,160 BUT IN TERMS OF HOW THE WORLD 2121 01:22:28,160 --> 01:22:33,280 IMPACTS -- CLIMATE CHANGE 2122 01:22:33,280 --> 01:22:34,400 IMPACTS AGRICULTURE, YOU KNOW, I 2123 01:22:34,400 --> 01:22:36,320 THINK, YOU KNOW, WE'RE 2124 01:22:36,320 --> 01:22:39,600 INCREASINGLY GETTING A PRETTY 2125 01:22:39,600 --> 01:22:43,760 GOOD GRIP ON THE SCIENCE OF 2126 01:22:43,760 --> 01:22:44,000 THAT. 2127 01:22:44,000 --> 01:22:46,600 AND SO IN THAT -- THAT'S THE 2128 01:22:46,600 --> 01:22:49,000 GOOD NEWS PROBABLY FROM THE -- 2129 01:22:49,000 --> 01:22:51,760 AT LEAST IN TERMS OF THE -- SOME 2130 01:22:51,760 --> 01:22:54,040 OF THE BASIC PRODUCTION ASPECTS, 2131 01:22:54,040 --> 01:22:56,400 BUT THERE'S SOME IMPORTANT 2132 01:22:56,400 --> 01:22:58,560 ASPECTS THAT ARE NOT REALLY WELL 2133 01:22:58,560 --> 01:22:59,600 UNDERSTOOD AT ALL NOW, MAYBE 2134 01:22:59,600 --> 01:23:01,720 THIS IS A LITTLE BIT TO ANSWER 2135 01:23:01,720 --> 01:23:02,640 YOUR QUESTION. 2136 01:23:02,640 --> 01:23:06,000 SO, FOR EXAMPLE, THE PEST AND 2137 01:23:06,000 --> 01:23:07,080 DISEASE ASPECTS OF AGRICULTURAL 2138 01:23:07,080 --> 01:23:10,040 SYSTEMS, HOW THEY ARE IMPACTED 2139 01:23:10,040 --> 01:23:12,120 BY CLIMATE, IS LARGELY NOT 2140 01:23:12,120 --> 01:23:13,120 UNDERSTOOD I WOULD ARGUE. 2141 01:23:13,120 --> 01:23:17,040 PARTLY BECAUSE OF THE MODELS 2142 01:23:17,040 --> 01:23:20,200 DON'T INCORPORATE THAT, THAT WE 2143 01:23:20,200 --> 01:23:22,320 HAVE TODAY. 2144 01:23:22,320 --> 01:23:26,120 LIVESTOCK -- AND CROP -- AND 2145 01:23:26,120 --> 01:23:28,000 CROP SYSTEMS, ROBIN MAYBE -- 2146 01:23:28,000 --> 01:23:29,600 INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT ROBIN 2147 01:23:29,600 --> 01:23:30,920 THINKS ABOUT THIS, CROPPING 2148 01:23:30,920 --> 01:23:32,640 SYSTEMS ARE PROBABLY UNDERSTOOD 2149 01:23:32,640 --> 01:23:35,760 BETTER THAN LIVE STOCK SYSTEMS 2150 01:23:35,760 --> 01:23:36,960 IN TERMS OF CLIMATE IMPACTS 2151 01:23:36,960 --> 01:23:41,680 AGAIN BECAUSE MODELS WE HAVE FOR 2152 01:23:41,680 --> 01:23:44,600 ANIMAL SYSTEMS ARE JUST NOT AS 2153 01:23:44,600 --> 01:23:47,040 WELL DEVELOPED AS THE CROP-BASED 2154 01:23:47,040 --> 01:23:48,280 SYSTEMS, BUT THERE ARE A NUMBER 2155 01:23:48,280 --> 01:23:50,640 OF IMPORTANT CROPS WE DON'T HAVE 2156 01:23:50,640 --> 01:23:51,600 GOOD MODELS FOR EITHER. 2157 01:23:51,600 --> 01:23:53,360 JUST IN THE LAST TEN YEARS OR 2158 01:23:53,360 --> 01:23:56,880 SO, FOR EXAMPLE, THIS GROUP I'M 2159 01:23:56,880 --> 01:23:59,920 INVOLVED WITH HAS MADE A LOT OF 2160 01:23:59,920 --> 01:24:03,040 ADVANCES AND IMPROVING 2161 01:24:03,040 --> 01:24:05,440 UNDERSTANDING HOW TEMPERATURE 2162 01:24:05,440 --> 01:24:09,680 AND PRECIP AND CARBON AND OTHER 2163 01:24:09,680 --> 01:24:10,680 THINGS INTERACT IN CROPS AND 2164 01:24:10,680 --> 01:24:14,160 IMPROVE THE WAY THOSE MODELS 2165 01:24:14,160 --> 01:24:17,040 WORK TO, FOR EXAMPLE, REPRESENT 2166 01:24:17,040 --> 01:24:20,000 CLIMATE EXTREMES BUT I THINK THE 2167 01:24:20,000 --> 01:24:25,240 LIVESTOCK MODELS ARE STILL WAY 2168 01:24:25,240 --> 01:24:26,680 BEHIND CROP MODELS. 2169 01:24:26,680 --> 01:24:28,000 ROBIN, WHAT DO YOU THINK? 2170 01:24:28,000 --> 01:24:35,160 >> IN GENERAL MOST OF LIVESTOCK 2171 01:24:35,160 --> 01:24:38,480 IS 10 TO 15 YEARS BEHIND CROP 2172 01:24:38,480 --> 01:24:41,040 TECHNOLOGY, A FAIR BUT 2173 01:24:41,040 --> 01:24:41,480 UNFORTUNATE STATEMENT. 2174 01:24:41,480 --> 01:24:43,200 >> SO, MATT, I DON'T KNOW IF I 2175 01:24:43,200 --> 01:24:43,840 ANSWERED YOUR QUESTION. 2176 01:24:43,840 --> 01:24:48,320 >> YEAH, NO, I APPRECIATE THAT. 2177 01:24:48,320 --> 01:24:51,160 YEAH, THANK YOU. 2178 01:24:51,160 --> 01:24:53,480 I'M HAPPY TO ASK MY SECOND 2179 01:24:53,480 --> 01:24:54,680 QUESTION, OR IF SOMEONE ELSE 2180 01:24:54,680 --> 01:24:55,520 WANTS TO ASK. 2181 01:24:55,520 --> 01:24:55,960 >> GO AHEAD, MATT. 2182 01:24:55,960 --> 01:24:57,640 >> THIS IS A LITTLE BIT 2183 01:24:57,640 --> 01:24:57,920 DIFFERENT. 2184 01:24:57,920 --> 01:24:59,720 I GUESS I WANT TO GO BACK TO THE 2185 01:24:59,720 --> 01:25:01,800 POINT THAT WAS SURPRISING TO ME. 2186 01:25:01,800 --> 01:25:06,280 YOU WERE SAYING THAT YOU THOUGHT 2187 01:25:06,280 --> 01:25:09,840 THAT THE WORLD HAD KIND OF MOVED 2188 01:25:09,840 --> 01:25:10,480 TOWARD SPECIALIZATION AND 2189 01:25:10,480 --> 01:25:13,280 GLOBALIZATION AND WE MIGHT BE 2190 01:25:13,280 --> 01:25:15,360 TIPPING TOWARDS 2191 01:25:15,360 --> 01:25:17,240 OVERGLOBALIZATION, SORT OF 2192 01:25:17,240 --> 01:25:19,000 INCREASING OUR VULNERABILITY TO 2193 01:25:19,000 --> 01:25:21,840 SHOCKS, POLITICAL SHOCKS, 2194 01:25:21,840 --> 01:25:22,240 CLIMATE SHOCKS. 2195 01:25:22,240 --> 01:25:23,560 AND THAT, I HADN'T HEARD THAT 2196 01:25:23,560 --> 01:25:26,200 BEFORE BECAUSE I OFTEN HEARD 2197 01:25:26,200 --> 01:25:28,080 THAT GLOBALIZATION WAS SORT OF 2198 01:25:28,080 --> 01:25:29,480 THIS INSULATION AGAINST THOSE 2199 01:25:29,480 --> 01:25:32,120 KINDS OF SHOCKS BECAUSE IF YOU 2200 01:25:32,120 --> 01:25:32,960 HAVE A SHOCK IN, YOU KNOW, 2201 01:25:32,960 --> 01:25:34,560 SOMEWHERE IN THE WORLD THAT YOU 2202 01:25:34,560 --> 01:25:36,800 HAVE THIS GLOBAL TRADE THAT'S 2203 01:25:36,800 --> 01:25:40,360 ABLE TO FLOW TO HEAL THAT. 2204 01:25:40,360 --> 01:25:42,280 I WONDER IF YOU COULD SAY MORE 2205 01:25:42,280 --> 01:25:45,480 ABOUT WHAT YOU THINK THE 2206 01:25:45,480 --> 01:25:46,160 VULNERABILITIES ARE FOR 2207 01:25:46,160 --> 01:25:46,480 GLOBALIZATION? 2208 01:25:46,480 --> 01:25:46,880 >> SURE. 2209 01:25:46,880 --> 01:25:49,360 RIGHT, WHAT YOU JUST DESCRIBED 2210 01:25:49,360 --> 01:25:51,280 IS WHAT A LOT OF ECONOMISTS 2211 01:25:51,280 --> 01:25:52,480 WOULD SAY. 2212 01:25:52,480 --> 01:25:54,560 OH, TRADE, YOU KNOW, ALLOWS US 2213 01:25:54,560 --> 01:25:56,600 TO, YOU KNOW -- SO WHEAT IS 2214 01:25:56,600 --> 01:25:58,040 PRODUCED IN MANY PARTS OF THE 2215 01:25:58,040 --> 01:26:00,760 WORLD, AND SO WE GET A WAR IN 2216 01:26:00,760 --> 01:26:01,680 UKRAINE BUT THE REST OF THE 2217 01:26:01,680 --> 01:26:05,040 WORLD CAN MAKE UP FOR THAT. 2218 01:26:05,040 --> 01:26:07,880 SO THAT'S TRUE. 2219 01:26:07,880 --> 01:26:14,320 BUT AT THE SAME TIME, WE'VE, YOU 2220 01:26:14,320 --> 01:26:19,120 KNOW, MOVED -- YOU KNOW, AS WE 2221 01:26:19,120 --> 01:26:22,040 MAKE OURSELVES INCREASINGLY 2222 01:26:22,040 --> 01:26:24,880 DEPENDENT ON THAT GLOBAL SYSTEM, 2223 01:26:24,880 --> 01:26:26,080 THAT GLOBALIZED SYSTEM, YOU 2224 01:26:26,080 --> 01:26:32,440 KNOW, WHAT IT MEANS IS THAT IF 2225 01:26:32,440 --> 01:26:35,080 WE DO GET, YOU KNOW, AN 2226 01:26:35,080 --> 01:26:36,440 INCREASINGLY SPECIALIZED AND 2227 01:26:36,440 --> 01:26:39,240 INCREASINGLY SORT OF, YOU KNOW, 2228 01:26:39,240 --> 01:26:40,120 JUST-IN-TIME KIND OF INVENTORIES 2229 01:26:40,120 --> 01:26:42,520 AND ALL THIS SORT OF THING, THAT 2230 01:26:42,520 --> 01:26:45,040 KIND OF SYSTEM -- AS WE SAW IN 2231 01:26:45,040 --> 01:26:46,800 THE PANDEMIC, THE SUPPLY CHAINS 2232 01:26:46,800 --> 01:26:48,680 ACTUALLY ARE MUCH MORE FRAGILE 2233 01:26:48,680 --> 01:26:50,520 THAN WE REALIZED IN MANY 2234 01:26:50,520 --> 01:26:50,920 RESPECTS. 2235 01:26:50,920 --> 01:26:53,280 NOT JUST FOOD BUT OTHER THINGS 2236 01:26:53,280 --> 01:26:54,440 AS WELL. 2237 01:26:54,440 --> 01:26:56,960 ONE OF MY EXPERIENCES, YOU KNOW, 2238 01:26:56,960 --> 01:26:58,720 THIS WASN'T EXACTLY FOOD BUT DO 2239 01:26:58,720 --> 01:27:01,360 YOU REMEMBER THE VOLCANOS THAT 2240 01:27:01,360 --> 01:27:02,160 HAPPENED IN ICELAND BACK, I 2241 01:27:02,160 --> 01:27:03,960 DON'T KNOW, TEN YEARS AGO OR SO? 2242 01:27:03,960 --> 01:27:05,840 AND WHEN IN A HAPPENED I JUST 2243 01:27:05,840 --> 01:27:10,560 HAPPENED TO BE IN NAIROBI, AND 2244 01:27:10,560 --> 01:27:14,720 SO THE FLOWERS THAT WERE BEING 2245 01:27:14,720 --> 01:27:16,160 SHIPPED FROM NAIROBI TO EUROPE 2246 01:27:16,160 --> 01:27:20,760 WERE BEING SOLD ON THE STREETS 2247 01:27:20,760 --> 01:27:26,280 OF NAIROBI FOR NOTHING BECAUSE 2248 01:27:26,280 --> 01:27:28,120 THE 747s COULDN'T FLY. 2249 01:27:28,120 --> 01:27:32,640 SO, YOU KNOW, I DON'T THINK WE 2250 01:27:32,640 --> 01:27:34,600 REALIZE HOW ACTUALLY VULNERABLE 2251 01:27:34,600 --> 01:27:37,120 IN MANY WAYS THESE GLOBALIZED 2252 01:27:37,120 --> 01:27:40,120 SYSTEMS ARE BECOMING TO THOSE 2253 01:27:40,120 --> 01:27:45,320 KINDS OF DISRUPTIONS AND SHOCKS. 2254 01:27:45,320 --> 01:27:50,000 AND SO I DO THINK THAT THAT PLUS 2255 01:27:50,000 --> 01:27:51,760 POLITICS AND OTHER THINGS, YOU 2256 01:27:51,760 --> 01:27:54,000 KNOW, ALSO TO SOME DEGREE 2257 01:27:54,000 --> 01:27:54,600 SUSTAINABILITY CONSIDERATIONS 2258 01:27:54,600 --> 01:27:56,640 LIKE, YOU KNOW, COST OF 2259 01:27:56,640 --> 01:27:58,320 TRANSPORT AND ALL THAT ARE 2260 01:27:58,320 --> 01:28:00,160 ENCOURAGING, YOU KNOW, MORE 2261 01:28:00,160 --> 01:28:04,200 THINKING -- YOU KNOW, THE WHOLE 2262 01:28:04,200 --> 01:28:05,560 LOCAL FOOD MOVEMENT, ALL OF 2263 01:28:05,560 --> 01:28:06,120 THAT. 2264 01:28:06,120 --> 01:28:07,440 WE KNOW, YES, THAT'S NICE IN 2265 01:28:07,440 --> 01:28:08,840 SOME RESPECTS BUT IN SOME 2266 01:28:08,840 --> 01:28:11,680 RESPECTS IT'S REALLY NICE TO GET 2267 01:28:11,680 --> 01:28:13,640 MY, YOU KNOW, TOMATOES FROM 2268 01:28:13,640 --> 01:28:15,240 MEXICO IN THE WINTER WHEN WE 2269 01:28:15,240 --> 01:28:19,480 CAN'T GROW THEM HERE IN OREGON. 2270 01:28:19,480 --> 01:28:22,160 AND SO, YOU KNOW, YEAH WE DON'T 2271 01:28:22,160 --> 01:28:24,440 WANT TO PUSH -- WE DON'T WANT TO 2272 01:28:24,440 --> 01:28:28,040 GO TOO FAR FROM THE GLOBALIZED 2273 01:28:28,040 --> 01:28:29,600 SYSTEM EITHER BECAUSE ITS THAT 2274 01:28:29,600 --> 01:28:30,640 MANY GREAT ADVANTAGES BUT I 2275 01:28:30,640 --> 01:28:32,040 THINK WE'RE NOW STARTING TO 2276 01:28:32,040 --> 01:28:35,280 UNDERSTAND THAT IT HAS MANY 2277 01:28:35,280 --> 01:28:36,960 VULNERABILITIES, AND WE NEED TO 2278 01:28:36,960 --> 01:28:41,120 BE MORE CAREFUL ABOUT HOW WE, 2279 01:28:41,120 --> 01:28:45,800 YOU KNOW, DEAL WITH THOSE 2280 01:28:45,800 --> 01:28:48,960 VULNERABILITIES. 2281 01:28:48,960 --> 01:28:49,760 >> EXCELLENT. 2282 01:28:49,760 --> 01:28:51,560 MATT, DID YOU HAVE MORE 2283 01:28:51,560 --> 01:28:53,280 QUESTIONS OR IS THAT GOOD? 2284 01:28:53,280 --> 01:28:54,920 >> NO, I'M DONE. 2285 01:28:54,920 --> 01:28:55,280 THANK YOU. 2286 01:28:55,280 --> 01:28:55,920 >> ALL RIGHT. 2287 01:28:55,920 --> 01:28:57,880 WE HAD A BIT OF A LONGER FIRST 2288 01:28:57,880 --> 01:28:59,840 BREAK SO I'M GOING TO BE SELFISH 2289 01:28:59,840 --> 01:29:01,840 HERE AND EAT INTO OUR SECOND 2290 01:29:01,840 --> 01:29:06,240 BREAK JUST A LITTLE BIT WITH 2291 01:29:06,240 --> 01:29:07,640 MAYBE ONE FINAL QUESTION, I 2292 01:29:07,640 --> 01:29:11,480 WONDER IF YOU CAN COMMENT ABOUT 2293 01:29:11,480 --> 01:29:13,440 THE ECONOMIC -- I'LL CALL THEM 2294 01:29:13,440 --> 01:29:18,280 STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES OF 2295 01:29:18,280 --> 01:29:21,200 RELYING ON SUPPLY SIDE 2296 01:29:21,200 --> 01:29:23,280 INTERVENTION FOR ENHANCING FOOD 2297 01:29:23,280 --> 01:29:25,920 SYSTEMS SECURITY OR FOOD 2298 01:29:25,920 --> 01:29:30,400 SUSTAINABILITY VERSUS DEMAND 2299 01:29:30,400 --> 01:29:31,920 SIDE INTERVENTION. 2300 01:29:31,920 --> 01:29:32,160 >> HMM. 2301 01:29:32,160 --> 01:29:33,720 WELL, I GUESS THE WAY I WOULD 2302 01:29:33,720 --> 01:29:37,520 PUT IT IS WE NEED BOTH. 2303 01:29:37,520 --> 01:29:39,160 SO MAYBE THAT'S SAYING WE DON'T 2304 01:29:39,160 --> 01:29:41,040 WANT TO RELY JUST ON SUPPLY 2305 01:29:41,040 --> 01:29:41,400 SIDE. 2306 01:29:41,400 --> 01:29:42,800 BECAUSE I THINK THE DEMAND SIDE 2307 01:29:42,800 --> 01:29:44,800 OF COURSE IS VERY IMPORTANT. 2308 01:29:44,800 --> 01:29:47,480 WE NEED TO SEND THE MARKET 2309 01:29:47,480 --> 01:29:49,160 SIGNALS FROM THE DEMAND SIDE 2310 01:29:49,160 --> 01:29:53,640 LIKE I WAS DESCRIBING IN MY 2311 01:29:53,640 --> 01:29:54,120 PRESENTATION. 2312 01:29:54,120 --> 01:29:56,840 BUT THERE ARE BIG CHALLENGES TO 2313 01:29:56,840 --> 01:30:00,560 DO THAT ALSO. 2314 01:30:00,560 --> 01:30:03,480 SO, WHETHER IT'S MORE SUPPORT 2315 01:30:03,480 --> 01:30:05,640 FOR FOOD -- FOR QUALITY 2316 01:30:05,640 --> 01:30:07,240 CERTIFICATION, OTHER KINDS OF 2317 01:30:07,240 --> 01:30:09,040 APPROACHES, BUT LIKE I SAID IT'S 2318 01:30:09,040 --> 01:30:12,240 THIS BIG INFORMATION PROBLEM FOR 2319 01:30:12,240 --> 01:30:16,720 THE CONSUMER, SO WE NEED TO HELP 2320 01:30:16,720 --> 01:30:17,720 ADDRESS THAT CHALLENGE. 2321 01:30:17,720 --> 01:30:21,880 BUT AT THE SAME TIME, WE NEED 2322 01:30:21,880 --> 01:30:24,600 INVESTMENT ON THE SUPPLY SIDE 2323 01:30:24,600 --> 01:30:27,760 FOR THE TECHNOLOGIES AND WE 2324 01:30:27,760 --> 01:30:29,720 NEED, WHEN NECESSARY, THE 2325 01:30:29,720 --> 01:30:33,040 ECONOMIC SUPPORT ON SUPPLY SIDE 2326 01:30:33,040 --> 01:30:36,000 TO MAKE THOSE TECHNOLOGIES 2327 01:30:36,000 --> 01:30:38,080 ECONOMICALLY VIABLE, COMPETITIVE 2328 01:30:38,080 --> 01:30:38,960 FOR PRODUCERS. 2329 01:30:38,960 --> 01:30:41,360 YOU KNOW, THAT KIND OF CARRIES 2330 01:30:41,360 --> 01:30:45,080 SUPPLY CHAIN AS WELL. 2331 01:30:45,080 --> 01:30:46,840 SO, I THINK BOTH ARE ESSENTIAL 2332 01:30:46,840 --> 01:30:48,440 IF WE REALLY -- YOU KNOW, 2333 01:30:48,440 --> 01:30:50,200 BECAUSE, YOU KNOW, MOVING THE 2334 01:30:50,200 --> 01:30:51,520 FOOD SYSTEM IN A MORE 2335 01:30:51,520 --> 01:30:52,840 SUSTAINABLE DIRECTION IS JUST AS 2336 01:30:52,840 --> 01:30:55,160 MUCH A CHALLENGE, MAYBE MORE, AS 2337 01:30:55,160 --> 01:30:57,800 MOVING OUR ENERGY SYSTEM IN A 2338 01:30:57,800 --> 01:30:58,880 SUSTAINABLE DIRECTION. 2339 01:30:58,880 --> 01:31:00,800 THESE ARE BOTH LARGE COMPLEX 2340 01:31:00,800 --> 01:31:02,720 SYSTEMS WITH HUGE AMOUNTS OF 2341 01:31:02,720 --> 01:31:07,080 EXISTING SORT OF INVESTMENT IN 2342 01:31:07,080 --> 01:31:10,640 INFRASTRUCTURE THAT HAS TO BE 2343 01:31:10,640 --> 01:31:11,040 MOVED AND CHANGED. 2344 01:31:11,040 --> 01:31:13,960 AND SO WE NEED TO ATTACK IT FROM 2345 01:31:13,960 --> 01:31:18,440 BOTH SIDES TO BE ABLE TO REALLY 2346 01:31:18,440 --> 01:31:21,040 MOVE IT EFFICIENTLY AND 2347 01:31:21,040 --> 01:31:22,720 EFFECTIVELY AND AS QUICKLY AS WE 2348 01:31:22,720 --> 01:31:25,640 CAN AND IN BETTER DIRECTIONS. 2349 01:31:25,640 --> 01:31:27,440 >> THANK YOU FOR THE 2350 01:31:27,440 --> 01:31:27,960 PERSPECTIVE. 2351 01:31:27,960 --> 01:31:30,840 WE'RE GOING TO GO AHEAD AND 2352 01:31:30,840 --> 01:31:36,320 SWITCH GEARS NOW AND MOVE INTO 2353 01:31:36,320 --> 01:31:40,960 OUR SHORT DISCUSSIONS OF THE 2354 01:31:40,960 --> 01:31:43,760 DIFFERENT EXAMPLE FOOD SYSTEMS 2355 01:31:43,760 --> 01:31:47,760 SO THAT WE CAN EXPLORE ANIMALS, 2356 01:31:47,760 --> 01:31:48,640 AQUATIC SYSTEMS, CROPPING 2357 01:31:48,640 --> 01:31:51,600 SYSTEMS, AND HOW THEY WORK INTO 2358 01:31:51,600 --> 01:31:52,880 OUR WORKING GROUP'S PURVIEW AND 2359 01:31:52,880 --> 01:31:55,640 INTO THE FRAMEWORK WE'VE 2360 01:31:55,640 --> 01:31:56,440 DISCUSSED. 2361 01:31:56,440 --> 01:32:01,880 SO WE'LL GO AHEAD AND START WITH 2362 01:32:01,880 --> 01:32:05,640 ANIMAL SYSTEMS, SO WE'LL TALK 2363 01:32:05,640 --> 01:32:08,120 PRIMARILY ABOUT TERRESTRIAL 2364 01:32:08,120 --> 01:32:08,920 LIVESTOCK HERE. 2365 01:32:08,920 --> 01:32:11,640 WHEN WE THINK ABOUT INTERPLAY, 2366 01:32:11,640 --> 01:32:16,560 EXCUSE ME, SOME DISCLOSURES, OUR 2367 01:32:16,560 --> 01:32:17,880 LAB RECEIVED FUNDING TO PROVIDE 2368 01:32:17,880 --> 01:32:18,240 RESEARCH. 2369 01:32:18,240 --> 01:32:21,800 WHEN WE THINK ABOUT THIS 2370 01:32:21,800 --> 01:32:23,360 INTERSECTION OF CLIMATE 2371 01:32:23,360 --> 01:32:25,200 ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE AND FOOD 2372 01:32:25,200 --> 01:32:28,400 SYSTEMS, LIVESTOCK I WOULD ARGUE 2373 01:32:28,400 --> 01:32:32,000 ARE PERHAPS HIGHLY CENTRAL AND 2374 01:32:32,000 --> 01:32:34,200 HIGHLY DEBATED TO THIS 2375 01:32:34,200 --> 01:32:35,160 PARTICULAR CYCLE. 2376 01:32:35,160 --> 01:32:40,120 ON ONE END OF THE SPECTRUM, WE 2377 01:32:40,120 --> 01:32:41,400 ACKNOWLEDGE THAT, FOR EXAMPLE, 2378 01:32:41,400 --> 01:32:45,280 IN THE CONTEXT OF UNITED STATES 2379 01:32:45,280 --> 01:32:47,760 GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS, WHICH 2380 01:32:47,760 --> 01:32:50,080 ARE JUST OVER 6 MILLION METRIC 2381 01:32:50,080 --> 01:32:53,600 TONS OF CO2 EQUIVALENCE 2382 01:32:53,600 --> 01:32:55,440 ANNUALLY, LIVESTOCK ACCOUNTS FOR 2383 01:32:55,440 --> 01:32:56,960 4% BUT GLOBALLY ESTIMATES ARE 2384 01:32:56,960 --> 01:32:59,160 MUCH LARGER THAN THAT, 2385 01:32:59,160 --> 01:33:01,360 SUGGESTING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 7 2386 01:33:01,360 --> 01:33:03,440 AND 14% OF GLOBAL GREENHOUSE GAS 2387 01:33:03,440 --> 01:33:04,360 EMISSIONS. 2388 01:33:04,360 --> 01:33:06,080 ONE OF THE MAJOR CHALLENGES WITH 2389 01:33:06,080 --> 01:33:08,760 LICHES IN 2390 01:33:08,760 --> 01:33:10,000 -- LIVESTOCK IN THE U.S. IS 2391 01:33:10,000 --> 01:33:11,720 NOT HOW THEY COMPARE TO TOTAL 2392 01:33:11,720 --> 01:33:13,360 EMISSIONS PROFILE BUT THE FACT 2393 01:33:13,360 --> 01:33:15,120 EMISSIONS FROM ANIMAL 2394 01:33:15,120 --> 01:33:17,320 AGRICULTURE HAVE INCREASED 20% 2395 01:33:17,320 --> 01:33:17,960 SINCE 1990. 2396 01:33:17,960 --> 01:33:20,360 AND TO PUT IT IN A LITTLE BIT 2397 01:33:20,360 --> 01:33:22,560 DIFFERENT CONTEXT, IF WE RANKED 2398 01:33:22,560 --> 01:33:25,400 U.S. ANIMAL AGRICULTURE AS ITS 2399 01:33:25,400 --> 01:33:36,080 OWN COUNTRY, IT WOULD RANK 23RD 2400 01:33:36,080 --> 01:33:36,360 GLOBALLY. 2401 01:33:36,360 --> 01:33:38,680 WE HAVE A LOT TO TALK BECOME IN 2402 01:33:38,680 --> 01:33:40,520 THE ANIMAL AGRICULTURE SPACE, ON 2403 01:33:40,520 --> 01:33:41,160 THE DASHED SIDE. 2404 01:33:41,160 --> 01:33:44,560 IN TERMS OF THE VERTICAL FLOW 2405 01:33:44,560 --> 01:33:48,080 THROUGH THE FRAMEWORK THAT WE 2406 01:33:48,080 --> 01:33:49,160 DESCRIBED PREVIOUSLY, WE 2407 01:33:49,160 --> 01:33:51,280 ESTIMATE OR RECENT ESTIMATES 2408 01:33:51,280 --> 01:33:56,520 SUGGEST THAT JUST LOOKING AT 2409 01:33:56,520 --> 01:33:58,200 BEEF, DAIRY, SHEEP, GOATS, 2410 01:33:58,200 --> 01:34:02,440 ANNUAL LOSSES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 2411 01:34:02,440 --> 01:34:04,200 AROUND $40 BILLION ASSOCIATED 2412 01:34:04,200 --> 01:34:08,360 WITH IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE 2413 01:34:08,360 --> 01:34:10,200 ON RUMINANT LIVESTOCK. 2414 01:34:10,200 --> 01:34:12,160 WE DON'T TALK ABOUT THAT SIDE OF 2415 01:34:12,160 --> 01:34:15,000 THE ARROW WHEN DISCUSSING STABLE 2416 01:34:15,000 --> 01:34:17,840 FOOD SYSTEMS IT BECOMES QUITE 2417 01:34:17,840 --> 01:34:18,280 CRITICAL. 2418 01:34:18,280 --> 01:34:20,920 IN TERMS OF OUR FRAMEWORK, HOW 2419 01:34:20,920 --> 01:34:25,640 WE CAN APPLY WITH SOME SPECIFIC 2420 01:34:25,640 --> 01:34:26,960 EXAMPLES TO LIVESTOCK, MUCH OF 2421 01:34:26,960 --> 01:34:28,800 OUR KNOWLEDGE CENTERS IN THE 2422 01:34:28,800 --> 01:34:31,560 FIRST BOX ON HOW THINGS LIKE 2423 01:34:31,560 --> 01:34:32,640 CHANGES IN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE 2424 01:34:32,640 --> 01:34:36,200 AND RAINFALL ARE GOING TO 2425 01:34:36,200 --> 01:34:37,560 INFLUENCE ANIMAL PRODUCTIVITY, 2426 01:34:37,560 --> 01:34:40,960 MORTALITY, AND HOW ANIMALS 2427 01:34:40,960 --> 01:34:43,680 RESPOND TO MORE AND INTENSE 2428 01:34:43,680 --> 01:34:47,080 EXTREME EVENTS. 2429 01:34:47,080 --> 01:34:49,160 SO LIVE STOCK ARE MAMMALS, 2430 01:34:49,160 --> 01:34:51,680 RUMINANT IN PARTICULAR ARE 2431 01:34:51,680 --> 01:34:53,520 MAMMALS, AND THEY RELY ON 2432 01:34:53,520 --> 01:34:54,560 TRADITIONAL HEAT ABATEMENT 2433 01:34:54,560 --> 01:34:55,600 MECHANISMS TO MAINTAIN BODY 2434 01:34:55,600 --> 01:34:57,960 TEMPERATURE IN A VERY NARROW 2435 01:34:57,960 --> 01:35:01,400 RANGE JUST LIKE HUMANS DO. 2436 01:35:01,400 --> 01:35:05,160 THEY LEVERAGE CONDUCTIVE AND 2437 01:35:05,160 --> 01:35:15,640 EVAMP A ACTIVE -- EVAPORATIVE 2438 01:35:18,120 --> 01:35:19,520 AND CONDUCTIVE HEAT LOSS, 2439 01:35:19,520 --> 01:35:23,000 MAINTAINING IN THE NARROWLY 2440 01:35:23,000 --> 01:35:24,200 DEFINED PHYSIOLOGICALLY 2441 01:35:24,200 --> 01:35:24,720 APPROPRIATE RANGE. 2442 01:35:24,720 --> 01:35:33,280 FOR LIVESTOCK WE HAVE INDICES 2443 01:35:33,280 --> 01:35:34,480 WHICH HELP US UNDERSTAND 2444 01:35:34,480 --> 01:35:38,640 COMPOUNDING E EFFECT OF 2445 01:35:38,640 --> 01:35:39,640 TEMPERATURE AND RELATIVE 2446 01:35:39,640 --> 01:35:41,520 HUMIDITY AND MOVING FROM NOT 2447 01:35:41,520 --> 01:35:42,160 EXPERIENCING STRESS TO A 2448 01:35:42,160 --> 01:35:44,720 SITUATION WHERE WE HAVE SUDDEN 2449 01:35:44,720 --> 01:35:46,880 DEATH EVENTS, AND WE'VE HAD A 2450 01:35:46,880 --> 01:35:49,120 NUMBER OF THESE FAIRLY HIGHLY 2451 01:35:49,120 --> 01:35:51,720 PUBLICIZED IN THE U.S. RECENTLY 2452 01:35:51,720 --> 01:35:54,680 AS WE'VE HAD HEAT WAVES GO 2453 01:35:54,680 --> 01:36:05,160 THROUGH FEED LOT PLAGUESS 2454 01:36:06,160 --> 01:36:08,680 CHANGES LEADING TO LOSS. 2455 01:36:08,680 --> 01:36:09,960 THINGS LIKE RESPIRATION 2456 01:36:09,960 --> 01:36:12,040 RESPONSES TO THERMAL TEMPERATURE 2457 01:36:12,040 --> 01:36:15,360 WILL BE -- OR CHANGE IN 2458 01:36:15,360 --> 01:36:16,920 RESPIRATORY RESPONSES WILL BE 2459 01:36:16,920 --> 01:36:19,280 DOUBLED WHEN YOU EXPOSE THEM TO 2460 01:36:19,280 --> 01:36:20,920 A RAPID CHANGE IN THERMAL 2461 01:36:20,920 --> 01:36:22,400 ENVIRONMENT COMPARED TO GRADUAL 2462 01:36:22,400 --> 01:36:25,520 CHANGE IN THERMAL ENVIRONMENT. 2463 01:36:25,520 --> 01:36:27,920 AS WE'RE EXPECTING TEMPERATURE 2464 01:36:27,920 --> 01:36:29,080 CHANGES AND INCREASING INCIDENTS 2465 01:36:29,080 --> 01:36:31,760 IN SEVERITY OF EXTREME EVENTS, 2466 01:36:31,760 --> 01:36:33,680 THIS IS A MAJOR CHALLENGE. 2467 01:36:33,680 --> 01:36:36,280 NOW, ONE OF THE ADAPTATION 2468 01:36:36,280 --> 01:36:39,200 MECHANISMS WE HAVE IS TO MOVE 2469 01:36:39,200 --> 01:36:42,360 ANIMALS TOWARD INTENSIVE INDOOR 2470 01:36:42,360 --> 01:36:42,960 PRODUCTION SYSTEMS. 2471 01:36:42,960 --> 01:36:47,840 BUT THERE IS CHALLENGES THERE 2472 01:36:47,840 --> 01:36:49,600 WITH THINGS LIKE CONCENTRATING 2473 01:36:49,600 --> 01:36:51,440 IN ONE PARTICULAR AREA, AND WE 2474 01:36:51,440 --> 01:36:53,440 HAVE A MASS BALANCE CHALLENGE IN 2475 01:36:53,440 --> 01:36:55,200 TERMS OF NITROGEN AND 2476 01:36:55,200 --> 01:36:56,200 PHOSPHOROUS PRODUCED IN MANURE 2477 01:36:56,200 --> 01:37:02,720 AND IN TERMS OF THINGS LIKE 2478 01:37:02,720 --> 01:37:04,360 METHANE PRODUCED FROM 2479 01:37:04,360 --> 01:37:05,360 FERMENTATION OF MANURE. 2480 01:37:05,360 --> 01:37:07,960 ON THE OPPOSITE SIDE WE HAVE 2481 01:37:07,960 --> 01:37:08,720 EXTENSIVE PRODUCTION SYSTEMS 2482 01:37:08,720 --> 01:37:11,520 WHERE WE HAVE LESS OF A MASS 2483 01:37:11,520 --> 01:37:13,240 BALANCE CHALLENGE WITH ANIMALS. 2484 01:37:13,240 --> 01:37:16,840 HOWEVER, WE HAVE SOME TRADEOFFS 2485 01:37:16,840 --> 01:37:20,040 THERE IN THAT ANIMALS, WE CAN'T 2486 01:37:20,040 --> 01:37:21,560 CONTROL AND MITIGATE THE 2487 01:37:21,560 --> 01:37:22,040 ENVIRONMENT IN EXTENSIVE 2488 01:37:22,040 --> 01:37:23,840 PRODUCTION SYSTEMS AND HAVE TO 2489 01:37:23,840 --> 01:37:25,600 RELY ON THE ANIMAL'S PHYSIOLOGY 2490 01:37:25,600 --> 01:37:28,040 WHICH AS WE SEE OCCASIONALLY 2491 01:37:28,040 --> 01:37:32,320 DOES FAIL TO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT 2492 01:37:32,320 --> 01:37:34,200 MECHANISMS TO ENSURE EFFECTIVE 2493 01:37:34,200 --> 01:37:37,440 MITIGATION AND PREVENT REALLY 2494 01:37:37,440 --> 01:37:38,320 SEVERE HEAT STRESS THAT 2495 01:37:38,320 --> 01:37:40,960 EVENTUALLY LEADS TO DEATH. 2496 01:37:40,960 --> 01:37:46,760 ANIMALS ARE ALSO SENSITIVE TO 2497 01:37:46,760 --> 01:37:50,160 RAINFALL CHANGES, MOST IMPORTANT 2498 01:37:50,160 --> 01:37:52,360 IN EXTENSIVE PRODUCTION SYSTEMS, 2499 01:37:52,360 --> 01:37:54,320 ANIMALS ARE DEPENDENT ON WATER 2500 01:37:54,320 --> 01:37:55,640 AVAILABILITY AND RAINFALL. 2501 01:37:55,640 --> 01:37:58,480 96% OF WATER USED IN PRODUCTION 2502 01:37:58,480 --> 01:38:00,480 GLOBALLY IS GOING TO BE GREEN 2503 01:38:00,480 --> 01:38:02,440 WATER, VAST MAJORITY IS USED FOR 2504 01:38:02,440 --> 01:38:04,400 THINGS LIKE CROP AND FORAGE 2505 01:38:04,400 --> 01:38:05,080 PRODUCTION. 2506 01:38:05,080 --> 01:38:08,480 SO IT'S THE WATER REQUIREMENTS 2507 01:38:08,480 --> 01:38:10,200 FOR OUR FEED STUFF THAT DRIVES 2508 01:38:10,200 --> 01:38:13,680 MAJORITY OF THE WATER FOOTPRINT 2509 01:38:13,680 --> 01:38:14,440 OF LIVESTOCK. 2510 01:38:14,440 --> 01:38:16,840 VERY LITTLE OF THAT WATER IS 2511 01:38:16,840 --> 01:38:17,720 ASSOCIATED WITH ANIMALS DRINKING 2512 01:38:17,720 --> 01:38:22,560 WATER DIRECTLY AND DEPENDING ON 2513 01:38:22,560 --> 01:38:23,760 THE SYSTEM OCCASIONALLY HAVE 2514 01:38:23,760 --> 01:38:25,520 MORE NOTABLE USES OF WATER FOR 2515 01:38:25,520 --> 01:38:26,960 WHAT I'LL CALL MANAGEMENT. 2516 01:38:26,960 --> 01:38:28,120 ONE EXAMPLE IS WHAT YOU'RE 2517 01:38:28,120 --> 01:38:32,040 SEEING IN THE PHOTO HEREE WHERE 2518 01:38:32,040 --> 01:38:35,240 WE USE SPRINKLERS AS A STRATEGY 2519 01:38:35,240 --> 01:38:38,280 TO HELP DAIRY CATTLE IN THIS 2520 01:38:38,280 --> 01:38:40,120 INDICATION MAINTAIN AN 2521 01:38:40,120 --> 01:38:41,680 APPROPRIATE THERMAL ENVIRONMENT 2522 01:38:41,680 --> 01:38:46,520 ON PARTICULARLY HOT DAYS. 2523 01:38:46,520 --> 01:38:48,600 SO, AS WE EXPECT MORE CHALLENGES 2524 01:38:48,600 --> 01:38:52,880 WITH HEAT STRESS WE CAN ALSO 2525 01:38:52,880 --> 01:38:56,560 EXPECT A COMPOUNDING DEMAND FOR 2526 01:38:56,560 --> 01:38:58,320 INCREASED MANAGEMENT WATER AND 2527 01:38:58,320 --> 01:39:01,600 FOR INCREASED DRINKING WATER DUE 2528 01:39:01,600 --> 01:39:03,680 TO SHIFTS IN ANIMALS' 2529 01:39:03,680 --> 01:39:04,000 PHYSIOLOGY. 2530 01:39:04,000 --> 01:39:07,280 AGAIN THERE'S TRADEOFFS HERE 2531 01:39:07,280 --> 01:39:08,520 BETWEEN INTENSIVE AND EXTENSIVE 2532 01:39:08,520 --> 01:39:11,040 PRODUCTION SYSTEMS AND THEIR 2533 01:39:11,040 --> 01:39:14,840 DEMAND OR RELIANCE ON THINGS 2534 01:39:14,840 --> 01:39:16,400 LIKE PRECIPITATION. 2535 01:39:16,400 --> 01:39:19,000 WE THINK ABOUT THE BROADER 2536 01:39:19,000 --> 01:39:26,040 IMPACTS OF THESE FACTORS ON 2537 01:39:26,040 --> 01:39:29,200 PRODUCTIVITY AND PHYSIOLOGY HEAT 2538 01:39:29,200 --> 01:39:32,920 STRESS AND WATER SHORTAGE WILL 2539 01:39:32,920 --> 01:39:41,760 IMPAIR IMMUNE SYSTEM, AFFECT AT 2540 01:39:41,760 --> 01:39:42,440 ANIMAL BEHAVIOR, IMPAIR 2541 01:39:42,440 --> 01:39:44,200 DIGESTION, WITH IMPACT ON 2542 01:39:44,200 --> 01:39:46,160 PRODUCTIVITY AND ENVIRONMENTAL 2543 01:39:46,160 --> 01:39:47,480 IMPACT AND MANURE PRODUCTION. 2544 01:39:47,480 --> 01:39:50,960 THESE CHARTS HERE ARE FROM THIS 2545 01:39:50,960 --> 01:39:53,840 PAPER ESTIMATING A SEVERAL 2546 01:39:53,840 --> 01:40:00,520 BILLION DOLLAR IMPACT OF HEAT 2547 01:40:00,520 --> 01:40:02,040 STRESS ON RUMINANT LIVESTOCK, 2548 01:40:02,040 --> 01:40:05,200 THE AREAS WHERE WE EXPECT SEVERE 2549 01:40:05,200 --> 01:40:07,400 CHARGES, DARKER COLORED BROWN 2550 01:40:07,400 --> 01:40:11,040 AND RED, ARE HIGHLY CENTRALIZED 2551 01:40:11,040 --> 01:40:12,760 IN OUR DEVELOPING REGIONS. 2552 01:40:12,760 --> 01:40:18,480 SO WE ALSO NEED TO CONSIDER THE 2553 01:40:18,480 --> 01:40:19,760 REGIONAL SPECIFICITY OF THIS 2554 01:40:19,760 --> 01:40:22,720 SUSCEPTIBILITY OF LIVE STOCK TO 2555 01:40:22,720 --> 01:40:23,840 CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENTAL 2556 01:40:23,840 --> 01:40:24,160 CHANGES. 2557 01:40:24,160 --> 01:40:26,120 WHEN WE THINK ABOUT SOME THINGS 2558 01:40:26,120 --> 01:40:27,320 LIKE PHYSICAL AND BIOLOGICAL 2559 01:40:27,320 --> 01:40:30,320 SYSTEMS AND HOW THEY IMPACT 2560 01:40:30,320 --> 01:40:31,280 ANIMALS I'VE HIGHLIGHTED A 2561 01:40:31,280 --> 01:40:33,560 COUPLE AREAS THAT BECOME 2562 01:40:33,560 --> 01:40:35,200 IMPORTANT, LIKE SOIL RUNOFF 2563 01:40:35,200 --> 01:40:36,080 CERTAINLY ARE CRITICAL, WHEN WE 2564 01:40:36,080 --> 01:40:38,400 THINK ABOUT THE HEALTH OF OUR 2565 01:40:38,400 --> 01:40:40,800 GRASSLANDS AND OUR GRAZING 2566 01:40:40,800 --> 01:40:41,320 SYSTEMS. 2567 01:40:41,320 --> 01:40:43,200 BUT AS OUR PREVIOUS SPEAKER 2568 01:40:43,200 --> 01:40:45,040 HIGHLIGHTED, ONE OF THE EMERGING 2569 01:40:45,040 --> 01:40:48,320 AREAS THAT WE'RE BEGINNING TO 2570 01:40:48,320 --> 01:40:52,480 UNDERSTAND AS POTENTIALLY HIGHLY 2571 01:40:52,480 --> 01:40:55,120 DAMAGING IS THE EXPANSION OF OUR 2572 01:40:55,120 --> 01:40:56,280 VECTOR-BORNE DISEASES. 2573 01:40:56,280 --> 01:41:00,040 SO THIS IS JUST A USE CASE OR A 2574 01:41:00,040 --> 01:41:02,040 CASE STUDY I SUPPOSE THAT WE'RE 2575 01:41:02,040 --> 01:41:03,880 EXPERIENCING RIGHT NOW IN MY 2576 01:41:03,880 --> 01:41:07,360 REGION OF THE COUNTRY, WHERE WE 2577 01:41:07,360 --> 01:41:10,800 HAVE AN INVASIVE SPECIES OF TICK 2578 01:41:10,800 --> 01:41:12,440 THAT HAS MIGRATED GLOBALLY, AND 2579 01:41:12,440 --> 01:41:14,080 THERE'S A COUPLE DIFFERENT 2580 01:41:14,080 --> 01:41:17,520 THEORIES ON POTENTIAL ROUTES OF 2581 01:41:17,520 --> 01:41:18,640 INTRODUCTION, THE UNITED STATES, 2582 01:41:18,640 --> 01:41:20,840 SHOWN ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE 2583 01:41:20,840 --> 01:41:22,520 SLIDE, BUT WHAT WE'RE SEEING ON 2584 01:41:22,520 --> 01:41:25,840 THE LEFT SIDE OF THE SLIDE IS 2585 01:41:25,840 --> 01:41:28,040 INCREASING NUMBERS OF REPORTS OF 2586 01:41:28,040 --> 01:41:31,880 THE DISEASE THAT THIS PARTICULAR 2587 01:41:31,880 --> 01:41:33,040 TICK IS RESPONSIBLE FOR. 2588 01:41:33,040 --> 01:41:36,440 AND THE CHALLENGE HERE IS THAT 2589 01:41:36,440 --> 01:41:38,720 MORTALITY RATES EVER ANIMALS 2590 01:41:38,720 --> 01:41:42,240 INFECTED RANGE FROM 5 TO 90%, 2591 01:41:42,240 --> 01:41:44,560 AND UNFORTUNATELY IN MANY CASES 2592 01:41:44,560 --> 01:41:46,560 WE'RE CLOSER TO THE UPPER END OF 2593 01:41:46,560 --> 01:41:48,280 THAT RANGE. 2594 01:41:48,280 --> 01:41:51,520 SO AS WE HAVE INCREASED DISEASE 2595 01:41:51,520 --> 01:41:53,440 VECTORS THAT ARE INTRODUCED INTO 2596 01:41:53,440 --> 01:41:56,080 NEW AREAS, WE HAVE TO THINK 2597 01:41:56,080 --> 01:41:58,320 ABOUT POTENTIAL IMPACT THAT HAS 2598 01:41:58,320 --> 01:42:00,960 ON OUR ANIMAL POPULATION BECAUSE 2599 01:42:00,960 --> 01:42:02,480 CERTAINLY WHEN WE HAVE 90% 2600 01:42:02,480 --> 01:42:04,360 MORTALITY THE ENVIRONMENTAL 2601 01:42:04,360 --> 01:42:06,440 IMPACT OF OUR PRODUCTION SYSTEM 2602 01:42:06,440 --> 01:42:06,960 SKYROCKETS PRETTY QUICKLY 2603 01:42:06,960 --> 01:42:08,720 RELATIVE TO THE AMOUNT OF FOOD 2604 01:42:08,720 --> 01:42:10,160 WE'RE ABLE TO SUCCESSFULLY 2605 01:42:10,160 --> 01:42:10,600 PRODUCE. 2606 01:42:10,600 --> 01:42:12,760 SO THESE TYPES OF CHALLENGES ARE 2607 01:42:12,760 --> 01:42:14,320 AN EMERGING AREA OF CONCERN WHEN 2608 01:42:14,320 --> 01:42:17,280 WE THINK ABOUT THIS FRAMEWORK. 2609 01:42:17,280 --> 01:42:19,680 I DID WANT TO DEVOTE A LITTLE 2610 01:42:19,680 --> 01:42:21,080 TIME TO DOTTED ARROW. 2611 01:42:21,080 --> 01:42:22,880 THAT BECOMES A PRETTY IMPORTANT 2612 01:42:22,880 --> 01:42:25,440 PART OF THE ANIMAL DISCUSSION. 2613 01:42:25,440 --> 01:42:31,880 IF WE LOOK AT THE EPA DATA, U.S. 2614 01:42:31,880 --> 01:42:33,080 ANIMAL AGRICULTURE BECOMES A 2615 01:42:33,080 --> 01:42:35,040 PRETTY IMPORTANT CONTRIBUTOR TO 2616 01:42:35,040 --> 01:42:35,720 AGRICULTURAL EMISSIONS. 2617 01:42:35,720 --> 01:42:40,080 SO WHEN WE LOOK AT THINGS LIKE 2618 01:42:40,080 --> 01:42:41,600 FERMENTATION, THE RED PORTION, 2619 01:42:41,600 --> 01:42:44,880 MANURE MANAGEMENT, THE PURPLE 2620 01:42:44,880 --> 01:42:46,000 PORTION OF THE BAR, LIVESTOCK 2621 01:42:46,000 --> 01:42:53,520 ACCOUNT FOR CLOSE TO HALF OF OUR 2622 01:42:53,520 --> 01:42:54,680 AGRICULTURAL EMISSIONS, 2623 01:42:54,680 --> 01:42:59,000 DEPENDING HOW YOU SLICE THE PIE 2624 01:42:59,000 --> 01:42:59,880 ABOUT AGRICULTURAL SOIL 2625 01:42:59,880 --> 01:43:00,880 MANAGEMENT, THE BLUE PORTION. 2626 01:43:00,880 --> 01:43:07,200 WHEN WE BREAK IT DOWN , I FOCUS 2627 01:43:07,200 --> 01:43:10,080 ON RUMINANT ANIMALS BECAUSE THEY 2628 01:43:10,080 --> 01:43:12,400 ARE THE MAJOR CONTRIBUTORS TO 2629 01:43:12,400 --> 01:43:13,120 DASHED LINE. 2630 01:43:13,120 --> 01:43:14,960 LIGHT TAN AND BLUE AREAS SHOW 2631 01:43:14,960 --> 01:43:16,640 BEEF AND DAIRY CATTLE, AND THEIR 2632 01:43:16,640 --> 01:43:19,040 CONTRIBUTION TO U.S. ANIMAL 2633 01:43:19,040 --> 01:43:22,560 AGRICULTURE EMISSIONS, AND ALL 2634 01:43:22,560 --> 01:43:23,960 THE WAY BACK FROM 1990 UP TO 2635 01:43:23,960 --> 01:43:27,480 2001 HERE WE CAN SEE THAT THEY 2636 01:43:27,480 --> 01:43:28,800 HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN THE MAJOR 2637 01:43:28,800 --> 01:43:29,480 CONTRIBUTORS. 2638 01:43:29,480 --> 01:43:33,080 MOST OF THAT IS IN THE FORM OF 2639 01:43:33,080 --> 01:43:33,520 ENTERIC METHANE. 2640 01:43:33,520 --> 01:43:36,720 TO THE QUESTION I ASKED A MINUTE 2641 01:43:36,720 --> 01:43:39,480 AGO, PART OF THE CHALLENGE IS 2642 01:43:39,480 --> 01:43:40,960 OFTENTIMES THE PROPOSED SOLUTION 2643 01:43:40,960 --> 01:43:45,520 THROUGH USE CONSUMPTION OF 2644 01:43:45,520 --> 01:43:48,120 ANIMAL PRODUCTS. 2645 01:43:48,120 --> 01:43:49,840 ONE OF THE ISSUES IN THE 2646 01:43:49,840 --> 01:43:51,000 AGRICULTURE INDUSTRY WE'RE 2647 01:43:51,000 --> 01:43:54,320 HIGHLY SEGMENTED. 2648 01:43:54,320 --> 01:43:55,400 THERE ARE INPUTS TO THESE 2649 01:43:55,400 --> 01:43:57,680 INDUSTRIES, A NUMBER OF 2650 01:43:57,680 --> 01:43:59,600 ECONOMICALLY DISTINCT OPERATIONS 2651 01:43:59,600 --> 01:44:01,560 THAT OWN ANIMALS THROUGHOUT THE 2652 01:44:01,560 --> 01:44:02,600 PRODUCTION PROCESS. 2653 01:44:02,600 --> 01:44:04,080 ANIMALS ARE BORN ON A DIFFERENT 2654 01:44:04,080 --> 01:44:05,280 OPERATION THAN THEY ARE GROWN, 2655 01:44:05,280 --> 01:44:06,640 AND THEY ARE GROWN ON A 2656 01:44:06,640 --> 01:44:08,160 DIFFERENT OPERATION THAN THEY 2657 01:44:08,160 --> 01:44:08,840 ARE FINISHED. 2658 01:44:08,840 --> 01:44:11,200 AND THEN THEY ARE SOLD TYPICALLY 2659 01:44:11,200 --> 01:44:13,280 TO A PACKING OR PROCESSING 2660 01:44:13,280 --> 01:44:15,680 PLANT, PERHAPS SOLD AGAIN TO A 2661 01:44:15,680 --> 01:44:17,680 FURTHER PROCESSOR, SOLD AGAIN TO 2662 01:44:17,680 --> 01:44:20,960 A WHOLESALER, SOLD AGAIN TO A 2663 01:44:20,960 --> 01:44:22,160 SUPERMARKET, SOLD AGAIN PERHAPS 2664 01:44:22,160 --> 01:44:24,520 TO A RESTAURANT OR FOOD 2665 01:44:24,520 --> 01:44:25,600 SUPPLIER. 2666 01:44:25,600 --> 01:44:30,200 SO, TRYING TO CONNECT THE DOTS 2667 01:44:30,200 --> 01:44:32,400 BETWEEN A PURCHASING CHOICE AND 2668 01:44:32,400 --> 01:44:34,040 BACK TO OFTENTIMES THE AREA 2669 01:44:34,040 --> 01:44:35,200 WHERE WE NEED TO MAKE THE 2670 01:44:35,200 --> 01:44:38,560 DECISIONS WHICH IS WHEN WE'RE 2671 01:44:38,560 --> 01:44:40,040 BREEDING ANIMALS, BECOMES 2672 01:44:40,040 --> 01:44:40,520 SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING. 2673 01:44:40,520 --> 01:44:42,680 THIS IS ALSO A CHALLENGE WE HAVE 2674 01:44:42,680 --> 01:44:45,640 WHEN THINKING ABOUT USING LABELS 2675 01:44:45,640 --> 01:44:48,000 OR INCENTIVE PROGRAMS TO TRY AND 2676 01:44:48,000 --> 01:44:51,120 GET PAYMENTS BACK TO THE FARM 2677 01:44:51,120 --> 01:44:53,240 LEVEL TO SUPPORT ADOPTION OF 2678 01:44:53,240 --> 01:44:58,360 SUSTAINABILITY OR GREENHOUSE GAS 2679 01:44:58,360 --> 01:44:59,560 MITIGATING TECHNOLOGIES. 2680 01:44:59,560 --> 01:45:00,960 CONSIDERING THIS SEGMENTATION OF 2681 01:45:00,960 --> 01:45:04,680 THE INDUSTRY BECOMES REALLY 2682 01:45:04,680 --> 01:45:05,200 IMPORTANT. 2683 01:45:05,200 --> 01:45:08,720 I WANTED TO HIGHLIGHT WORK MAYBE 2684 01:45:08,720 --> 01:45:10,800 ADDRESSING THE ISSUE OF 2685 01:45:10,800 --> 01:45:11,240 OVERGLOBALIZATION. 2686 01:45:11,240 --> 01:45:13,240 THIS IS WORK THAT LUSK AND 2687 01:45:13,240 --> 01:45:14,160 COLLEAGUES DID LAST YEAR 2688 01:45:14,160 --> 01:45:16,280 EXPLORING THE IMPACT OF 2689 01:45:16,280 --> 01:45:17,600 PLANT-BASED MEAT ALTERNATIVES ON 2690 01:45:17,600 --> 01:45:18,480 CATTLE INVENTORY. 2691 01:45:18,480 --> 01:45:21,480 WHAT THEY FOUND IS A 10% 2692 01:45:21,480 --> 01:45:24,600 INCREASE IN DEMANDS FOR THESE 2693 01:45:24,600 --> 01:45:25,600 PLANT-BASED MEAT ALTERNATIVES 2694 01:45:25,600 --> 01:45:27,880 ACTUALLY CHANGES CATTLE SUPPLIES 2695 01:45:27,880 --> 01:45:31,960 BY LESS THAN -- WELL, LESS THAN 2696 01:45:31,960 --> 01:45:35,200 HALF A PERCENT, .15%, REALLY NOT 2697 01:45:35,200 --> 01:45:36,960 VERY SUBSTANTIAL. 2698 01:45:36,960 --> 01:45:43,320 THEY SEE A DECREASE IN ANIMAL 2699 01:45:43,320 --> 01:45:44,640 PRODUCER WELFARE, INCREASE IN 2700 01:45:44,640 --> 01:45:46,040 CONSUMER WELFARE, THE NEXT SHIFT 2701 01:45:46,040 --> 01:45:49,320 DRIVING THESE RESPONSES TO THIS 2702 01:45:49,320 --> 01:45:51,400 INCREASE IN PLANT-BASED MEAT 2703 01:45:51,400 --> 01:45:52,920 ALTERNATIVES IS REDUCED IMPORT 2704 01:45:52,920 --> 01:45:54,480 OF MEAT AND INCREASED EXPORT. 2705 01:45:54,480 --> 01:45:56,000 SO, ONE OF THE CHALLENGES THAT 2706 01:45:56,000 --> 01:45:59,840 WE HAVE WITH THESE TYPES OF 2707 01:45:59,840 --> 01:46:02,320 GLOBAL ECONOMIES IS A SHIFT IN 2708 01:46:02,320 --> 01:46:04,680 DEMAND ISN'T ALWAYS NECESSARILY 2709 01:46:04,680 --> 01:46:06,560 GUARANTEED TO SHIFT PRODUCTION 2710 01:46:06,560 --> 01:46:08,800 PATTERNS, WHEN WE JUST HAVE THE 2711 01:46:08,800 --> 01:46:10,760 OPPORTUNITY TO INCREASE EXPORTS. 2712 01:46:10,760 --> 01:46:12,840 NOW, THEY ALSO CONCLUDED THIS 2713 01:46:12,840 --> 01:46:15,720 HAD A PRETTY INTERESTING IMPACT 2714 01:46:15,720 --> 01:46:16,920 ON GLOBAL EMISSIONS, I THINK IT 2715 01:46:16,920 --> 01:46:19,640 WAS CLOSE TO A 2% REDUCTION IN 2716 01:46:19,640 --> 01:46:21,400 GLOBAL EMISSIONS, BUT THAT'S DUE 2717 01:46:21,400 --> 01:46:24,040 TO THE FACT THAT U.S. CATTLE 2718 01:46:24,040 --> 01:46:25,040 PRODUCTION IS SUBSTANTIALLY MORE 2719 01:46:25,040 --> 01:46:27,600 EFFICIENT THAN IN OTHER AREAS OF 2720 01:46:27,600 --> 01:46:31,080 THE WORLD SO AS YOU SUPPLANT 2721 01:46:31,080 --> 01:46:31,760 LOCAL PRODUCTION SYSTEMS THAT 2722 01:46:31,760 --> 01:46:34,080 ARE NOT AS PRODUCTIVE YOU SEE A 2723 01:46:34,080 --> 01:46:34,840 REDUCTION IN EMISSIONS. 2724 01:46:34,840 --> 01:46:37,200 BUT THERE'S A REALLY IMPORTANT 2725 01:46:37,200 --> 01:46:40,040 SOCIAL CHALLENGE THERE WHEN WE 2726 01:46:40,040 --> 01:46:41,640 START TO TALK ABOUT FOOD 2727 01:46:41,640 --> 01:46:44,800 IMPERIALISM AND NEED FOR 2728 01:46:44,800 --> 01:46:45,600 INDIVIDUAL COUNTRIES TO HAVE 2729 01:46:45,600 --> 01:46:49,600 SOME DEGREE OF FOOD SOVEREIGNTY, 2730 01:46:49,600 --> 01:46:51,200 ALSO PART OF THE GLOBALIZATION 2731 01:46:51,200 --> 01:46:51,440 ISSUE. 2732 01:46:51,440 --> 01:46:54,920 ONE LAST PIECE OF DATA I'LL 2733 01:46:54,920 --> 01:46:56,720 HIGHLIGHT, WE HAVE TREMENDOUS 2734 01:46:56,720 --> 01:46:58,480 VARIABILITY IN THE EMISSIONS 2735 01:46:58,480 --> 01:46:59,720 INTENSITIES OF ANIMAL PRODUCTS. 2736 01:46:59,720 --> 01:47:02,280 AND SO THIS IS AN AREA WHERE 2737 01:47:02,280 --> 01:47:05,120 THERE'S A LOT OF OPPORTUNITY. 2738 01:47:05,120 --> 01:47:09,840 THESE ARE SOME FAO DATA 2739 01:47:09,840 --> 01:47:14,760 HIGHLIGHTING THE 90% RANGE 2740 01:47:14,760 --> 01:47:16,880 AROUND PRODUCTION, 50% RANGE 2741 01:47:16,880 --> 01:47:19,600 AROUND PRODUCTION, THE MEAN 2742 01:47:19,600 --> 01:47:20,120 GLOBALLY. 2743 01:47:20,120 --> 01:47:23,200 ON THE RIGHT WHAT WOULD HAPPEN 2744 01:47:23,200 --> 01:47:27,280 IN A REGION IF PRODUCERS APPLIED 2745 01:47:27,280 --> 01:47:32,240 PRACTICES OF THE LOWEST TENTH 2746 01:47:32,240 --> 01:47:33,200 PERCENTILE MAINTAINING CONSTANT 2747 01:47:33,200 --> 01:47:35,360 OUTPUT LOOK LIKE IT'S MOST 2748 01:47:35,360 --> 01:47:36,160 ENVIRONMENTALLY EFFICIENT FARM 2749 01:47:36,160 --> 01:47:38,480 IN THE AREA AND WHAT THEY ARE 2750 01:47:38,480 --> 01:47:40,760 SHOWING VISUALLY WHERE THESE 2751 01:47:40,760 --> 01:47:44,680 CUTOUTS OF THE CLOUDS IS THE NEW 2752 01:47:44,680 --> 01:47:46,560 FOOTPRINT OF PRODUCTION UNDER 2753 01:47:46,560 --> 01:47:50,720 THOSE TYPES OF SCENARIOS. 2754 01:47:50,720 --> 01:47:53,120 SO, ON FARMING SYSTEMS, 2755 01:47:53,120 --> 01:47:54,200 LIVESTOCK SYSTEM WE HAVE A 2756 01:47:54,200 --> 01:47:56,040 NUMBER OF CHOICE HOUSE WE ADAPT 2757 01:47:56,040 --> 01:47:59,440 TO CLIMATE CHANGE AND HOW WE 2758 01:47:59,440 --> 01:48:00,560 ATTEMPT TO MITIGATE 2759 01:48:00,560 --> 01:48:01,560 ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS. 2760 01:48:01,560 --> 01:48:03,480 THOSE INCLUDE THINGS LIKE 2761 01:48:03,480 --> 01:48:04,080 DEPOPULATING ANIMALS, THAT'S 2762 01:48:04,080 --> 01:48:05,680 ALWAYS AN OPTION. 2763 01:48:05,680 --> 01:48:09,880 BUT DOING SO HAS SOCIAL 2764 01:48:09,880 --> 01:48:11,280 ACCEPTABILITY CHALLENGES, AND 2765 01:48:11,280 --> 01:48:13,440 IMPLICATIONS FOR OUR BROADER 2766 01:48:13,440 --> 01:48:13,760 ECOSYSTEM. 2767 01:48:13,760 --> 01:48:17,720 WE ALSO HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO 2768 01:48:17,720 --> 01:48:19,800 CHANGE HOUSING TO SHIFT TO 2769 01:48:19,800 --> 01:48:21,000 INTENSIVE SYSTEMS BUT THERE'S 2770 01:48:21,000 --> 01:48:23,600 TRADEOFFS THAT WE'VE TALKED 2771 01:48:23,600 --> 01:48:24,360 ABOUT. 2772 01:48:24,360 --> 01:48:28,000 GENETICS IS A PROMISING 2773 01:48:28,000 --> 01:48:31,200 STRATEGY, MAIN DRIVER OF 2774 01:48:31,200 --> 01:48:32,840 HISTORICAL IMPACT SHIFTS. 2775 01:48:32,840 --> 01:48:34,680 IT'S CRITICAL FOR ADAPTATION TO 2776 01:48:34,680 --> 01:48:35,880 CLIMATE ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE BUT 2777 01:48:35,880 --> 01:48:38,080 IT DOES TAKE TIME AND DEPENDS ON 2778 01:48:38,080 --> 01:48:38,920 ACCURATE PHENOTYPING WHICH CAN 2779 01:48:38,920 --> 01:48:42,160 BE A CHALLENGE FOR SOME ANIMALS. 2780 01:48:42,160 --> 01:48:44,000 WE ALSO HAVE NUTRITIONAL 2781 01:48:44,000 --> 01:48:45,920 INTERVENTIONS WHICH CAN AFFECT 2782 01:48:45,920 --> 01:48:47,960 PRETTY RAPID SHIFTS IN 2783 01:48:47,960 --> 01:48:49,040 ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT. 2784 01:48:49,040 --> 01:48:50,880 THEY ARE CRITICAL FOR ADAPTION 2785 01:48:50,880 --> 01:48:52,640 TO CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENTAL 2786 01:48:52,640 --> 01:48:54,080 CHANGE BUT RELATIVE TO THINGS 2787 01:48:54,080 --> 01:48:56,080 LIKE THE TYPE OF LONG-TERM 2788 01:48:56,080 --> 01:48:58,600 IMPACTS WE CAN ACHIEVE WITH 2789 01:48:58,600 --> 01:49:01,080 GENETICS OR SHORT-TERM IMPACT 2790 01:49:01,080 --> 01:49:01,960 WITH TECHNOLOGY, THE IMPACT OF 2791 01:49:01,960 --> 01:49:05,360 NUTRITION TENDS TO BE SOMEWHAT 2792 01:49:05,360 --> 01:49:09,400 MARGINAL AND ECONOMICAL 2793 01:49:09,400 --> 01:49:09,760 INTENSIVE. 2794 01:49:09,760 --> 01:49:11,520 WE CAN SHIFT REPRODUCE PATTERNS, 2795 01:49:11,520 --> 01:49:12,360 ACHIEVING RAPID CHANGES IN THE 2796 01:49:12,360 --> 01:49:14,560 ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT OF OUR 2797 01:49:14,560 --> 01:49:16,440 PRODUCTION SYSTEM, BUT 2798 01:49:16,440 --> 01:49:18,520 TECHNOLOGY IS NECESSARY TO 2799 01:49:18,520 --> 01:49:22,120 EFFECT THOSE CHANGE, NOT ALWAYS 2800 01:49:22,120 --> 01:49:24,480 SOCIALLY ACCEPTABLE. 2801 01:49:24,480 --> 01:49:25,760 ANT SHIFTING REPRODUCTION DOES 2802 01:49:25,760 --> 01:49:27,360 VERY LITTLE TO SUPPORT 2803 01:49:27,360 --> 01:49:28,920 ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE AND 2804 01:49:28,920 --> 01:49:29,600 ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE. 2805 01:49:29,600 --> 01:49:31,320 FINALLY WE HAVE A WHOLE BOAT OF 2806 01:49:31,320 --> 01:49:33,240 OPPORTUNITIES THAT I PUT UNDER 2807 01:49:33,240 --> 01:49:36,360 THE BROAD CATEGORY OF PRODUCTION 2808 01:49:36,360 --> 01:49:37,560 ENHANCING TECHNOLOGIES. 2809 01:49:37,560 --> 01:49:40,280 THESE CAN AFFECT VERY RAPID 2810 01:49:40,280 --> 01:49:41,640 SHIFTS IN ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS, 2811 01:49:41,640 --> 01:49:43,840 CAN EITHER IMPROVE OR REDUCE 2812 01:49:43,840 --> 01:49:46,880 ADAPTABILITY TO CLIMATE AND 2813 01:49:46,880 --> 01:49:48,440 ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE DEPENDING 2814 01:49:48,440 --> 01:49:49,840 ON TECHNOLOGY BUT HISTORICALLY 2815 01:49:49,840 --> 01:49:52,720 WE'VE SEEN A LOT OF DISTRUST AND 2816 01:49:52,720 --> 01:49:54,120 POOR SOCIAL ACCEPTABILITY AROUND 2817 01:49:54,120 --> 01:49:57,080 THE USE OF TECHNOLOGIES IN LIVE 2818 01:49:57,080 --> 01:50:00,240 STOCK PRODUCTION. 2819 01:50:00,240 --> 01:50:01,280 THESE ARE SOME OPPORTUNITIES, 2820 01:50:01,280 --> 01:50:02,680 LIMITATIONS WE THOUGHT OF IN THE 2821 01:50:02,680 --> 01:50:04,840 CONTEXT OF THIS SYSTEM AND A 2822 01:50:04,840 --> 01:50:07,240 LITTLE BIT ABOUT THAT RECIPROCAL 2823 01:50:07,240 --> 01:50:08,920 NATURE OF THE SYSTEM. 2824 01:50:08,920 --> 01:50:13,640 AT THIS POINT I'LL GO AHEAD AND 2825 01:50:13,640 --> 01:50:18,880 TRANSITION OVER TO OUR NEXT 2826 01:50:18,880 --> 01:50:20,080 SPEAKER. 2827 01:50:20,080 --> 01:50:24,560 THIS WILL BE KATHERINE FIORELLA 2828 01:50:24,560 --> 01:50:26,120 FROM CORNELL ADDRESSING AQUATIC 2829 01:50:26,120 --> 01:50:28,720 ELEMENTS OF THESE TYPE OF 2830 01:50:28,720 --> 01:50:28,920 SYSTEMS. 2831 01:50:28,920 --> 01:50:31,440 >> HI, EVERYONE. 2832 01:50:31,440 --> 01:50:34,760 THANK YOU FOR THE WONDERFUL 2833 01:50:34,760 --> 01:50:35,960 PRESENTATIONS TODAY. 2834 01:50:35,960 --> 01:50:45,320 I'LL GET MY SCREEN SHARED. 2835 01:50:45,320 --> 01:50:46,360 THIS IS ENLIGHTENING AND SUPER 2836 01:50:46,360 --> 01:50:47,840 USEFUL FOR OUR GROUP. 2837 01:50:47,840 --> 01:50:49,320 I'M GOING TO TALK ABOUT CLIMATE 2838 01:50:49,320 --> 01:50:51,680 AND ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGES IN 2839 01:50:51,680 --> 01:50:52,280 AQUATIC CONTEXT. 2840 01:50:52,280 --> 01:50:54,880 IN MY TALK I'M GOING TO PROVIDE 2841 01:50:54,880 --> 01:50:56,720 CONTEXT FOR CURRENT HARVEST OF 2842 01:50:56,720 --> 01:51:01,000 AQUATIC FOODS FROM WILD 2843 01:51:01,000 --> 01:51:02,200 FISHERIES AND AQUACULTURE AND 2844 01:51:02,200 --> 01:51:06,160 DISCUSS CLIMATE CHANGES 2845 01:51:06,160 --> 01:51:08,840 AFFECTING THE SYSTEMS. 2846 01:51:08,840 --> 01:51:10,600 SO FOCUSING ON AQUATIC FOODS, WE 2847 01:51:10,600 --> 01:51:11,520 TALKED ABOUT FISH BUT THERE'S 2848 01:51:11,520 --> 01:51:14,200 BEEN A REAL EFFORT TO BROADEN 2849 01:51:14,200 --> 01:51:15,640 TERMINOLOGY TO THINK ABOUT NOT 2850 01:51:15,640 --> 01:51:17,120 JUST FISH THAT DOMINATE THE 2851 01:51:17,120 --> 01:51:25,080 SECTOR BUT DIFFERENT TIMES OF 2852 01:51:25,080 --> 01:51:26,760 AQUATIC FOODS, MOLLUSKS, 2853 01:51:26,760 --> 01:51:27,080 BIVALVES 2854 01:51:27,080 --> 01:51:30,440 SNAILS, FROGS, THE LIKE. 2855 01:51:30,440 --> 01:51:31,640 THINKING BROADLY ABOUT THE 2856 01:51:31,640 --> 01:51:32,520 SYSTEM ENCOMPASSING DIFFERENT 2857 01:51:32,520 --> 01:51:34,720 FOODS THAT COME FROM THESE 2858 01:51:34,720 --> 01:51:35,280 SYSTEMS. 2859 01:51:35,280 --> 01:51:36,920 THE HARVEST OF WILD AQUATIC 2860 01:51:36,920 --> 01:51:41,040 FOODS IS DOMINATED BY SMALL 2861 01:51:41,040 --> 01:51:45,760 SCALE SECTOR, 100 MILLION PEOPLE 2862 01:51:45,760 --> 01:51:47,600 INTRODUCE TWO-THIRDS, THOSE ARE 2863 01:51:47,600 --> 01:51:49,240 OVERWHELMINGLY IN THE GLOBAL 2864 01:51:49,240 --> 01:51:54,840 SOUTH, ABOUT 90% OF THEM, THEY 2865 01:51:54,840 --> 01:51:57,240 ARE FISHING ON SMALL VESSELS 2866 01:51:57,240 --> 01:52:00,120 LIKE HERE ON LAKE VICTORIA. 2867 01:52:00,120 --> 01:52:02,280 FOR EXAMPLE, THEY HARVEST 8% OF 2868 01:52:02,280 --> 01:52:04,160 THE WORLD'S GLOBAL INLAND FISH. 2869 01:52:04,160 --> 01:52:10,720 WE HAVE AN IMAGE OF MARINE 2870 01:52:10,720 --> 01:52:17,160 INDUSTRIAL FISHING, BUT THE 2871 01:52:17,160 --> 01:52:19,440 SMALL SCALE SECTOR IS 2872 01:52:19,440 --> 01:52:20,120 SUBSTANTIAL. 2873 01:52:20,120 --> 01:52:21,200 FISHING TAKES PLACE IN OUR 2874 01:52:21,200 --> 01:52:23,960 GLOBAL OCEANS BUT ALSO IN LAKES, 2875 01:52:23,960 --> 01:52:25,240 RIVERS, COASTLINES IN ADDITION 2876 01:52:25,240 --> 01:52:26,920 TO HIGH SEAS. 2877 01:52:26,920 --> 01:52:29,520 THE HARVEST OF FISH PROVIDES 2878 01:52:29,520 --> 01:52:35,000 FOOD LOCALLY BUT REACHES FAR 2879 01:52:35,000 --> 01:52:40,280 AFIELD, AMONG THE MOST WIDELY 2880 01:52:40,280 --> 01:52:41,040 TRADED. 2881 01:52:41,040 --> 01:52:42,560 WE THINK ABOUT DIET IMPLICATIONS 2882 01:52:42,560 --> 01:52:45,960 IT'S NOT ALL STAYING LOCALLY OF 2883 01:52:45,960 --> 01:52:46,640 COURSE. 2884 01:52:46,640 --> 01:52:50,560 THIS GRAPH SHOWS AQUATIC FOOD 2885 01:52:50,560 --> 01:52:55,240 CONSUMPTION OVER TIME, THE GRAY 2886 01:52:55,240 --> 01:52:55,600 LINE HERE. 2887 01:52:55,600 --> 01:52:57,200 SHIFTS HAPPENING ALONG 2888 01:52:57,200 --> 01:52:58,320 CONSUMPTION OF OTHERS. 2889 01:52:58,320 --> 01:53:00,400 SIMILARLY TO SEVERAL OTHER 2890 01:53:00,400 --> 01:53:03,360 ANIMAL SOURCE FOODS AQUATIC FOOD 2891 01:53:03,360 --> 01:53:04,640 CONSUMPTION IS GROWING RAPIDLY. 2892 01:53:04,640 --> 01:53:06,760 AND, AGAIN, AS WITH OTHER ANIMAL 2893 01:53:06,760 --> 01:53:07,840 SOURCE FOODS AROUND THE WORLD 2894 01:53:07,840 --> 01:53:14,120 THERE ARE BIG DISPARITIES. 2895 01:53:14,120 --> 01:53:15,280 AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA 2896 01:53:15,280 --> 01:53:19,880 CONSUMING FAR LESS THAN GLOBAL 2897 01:53:19,880 --> 01:53:21,160 AVERAGE, ASIA, OCEANIA MUCH 2898 01:53:21,160 --> 01:53:22,800 LARGER CONSUMERS. 2899 01:53:22,800 --> 01:53:25,000 COLORS SHOW AQUATIC FOODS BEING 2900 01:53:25,000 --> 01:53:25,280 CONSUMED. 2901 01:53:25,280 --> 01:53:29,960 FOR EXAMPLE, SOME OF THE BIG 2902 01:53:29,960 --> 01:53:32,640 TRADEOFFS HAPPENING TO NOTICE 2903 01:53:32,640 --> 01:53:37,480 BETWEEN FRESH WATER FISH, YELLOW 2904 01:53:37,480 --> 01:53:43,360 PART OF THE BAR, AND THE GREEN 2905 01:53:43,360 --> 01:53:44,360 PART, DEMERSAL FISH. 2906 01:53:44,360 --> 01:53:48,560 IN ASIA THE SHARE OF FRESH WATER 2907 01:53:48,560 --> 01:53:53,000 FISH IS SUBSTANTIAL, AND THAT IS 2908 01:53:53,000 --> 01:53:56,120 THINGS LIKE YOUR TILAPIA, 2909 01:53:56,120 --> 01:54:02,640 CATFISH, CARP, COMPARED TO 2910 01:54:02,640 --> 01:54:03,760 DERMS, COD, HALIBUT. 2911 01:54:03,760 --> 01:54:04,960 LINKED TO ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGES 2912 01:54:04,960 --> 01:54:07,800 AND CLIMATE IMPACT, PART OF THE 2913 01:54:07,800 --> 01:54:09,560 POINT IS DIVERSITY REALLY TIES 2914 01:54:09,560 --> 01:54:10,840 INTO THE DIFFERENT TYPES OF WAYS 2915 01:54:10,840 --> 01:54:16,440 THESE FOOD SYSTEMS WILL BE 2916 01:54:16,440 --> 01:54:17,160 IMPACTED. 2917 01:54:17,160 --> 01:54:19,720 AND SO A MIDDLE OF THE GROWTH, 2918 01:54:19,720 --> 01:54:20,400 GLOBAL REPORTS INCREASINGLY 2919 01:54:20,400 --> 01:54:23,200 SUGGESTING WE SHOULD BE EATING 2920 01:54:23,200 --> 01:54:24,000 EVEN MORE FISH. 2921 01:54:24,000 --> 01:54:25,960 FISH IS BOTH A PARTICULARLY 2922 01:54:25,960 --> 01:54:28,240 SUSTAINABLE FOOD SOURCE AND 2923 01:54:28,240 --> 01:54:28,920 PARTICULARLY NUTRITIOUS ONE, AND 2924 01:54:28,920 --> 01:54:34,520 A LOT OF THESE ANALYSES IN THIS 2925 01:54:34,520 --> 01:54:37,800 GRAPH FROM THE EAT-LANCET REPORT 2926 01:54:37,800 --> 01:54:38,680 SHOWS CONTRIBUTION, IN MOST 2927 01:54:38,680 --> 01:54:45,160 REGIONS BELOW WHAT IS OPTIMAL, 2928 01:54:45,160 --> 01:54:46,720 GLOBAL SPECTRUM FOR CONSUMPTION 2929 01:54:46,720 --> 01:54:48,160 OF MORE FISH. 2930 01:54:48,160 --> 01:54:50,000 WHERE WILL THAT COME FROM? 2931 01:54:50,000 --> 01:54:51,960 FILLING THAT GAP IS GOING TO 2932 01:54:51,960 --> 01:54:53,680 REQUIRE A LOT MORE PRODUCTION. 2933 01:54:53,680 --> 01:54:55,720 FISH WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO BE 2934 01:54:55,720 --> 01:54:57,120 HARVESTED IN VERY LARGE 2935 01:54:57,120 --> 01:54:59,880 QUANTITIES FROM WILD FISHERIES 2936 01:54:59,880 --> 01:55:01,680 WHICH YOU SEE IN BLUE BUT WILL 2937 01:55:01,680 --> 01:55:06,000 ALSO NEED TO COME FROM 2938 01:55:06,000 --> 01:55:07,200 AQUACULTURE IN YELLOW, NOW 2939 01:55:07,200 --> 01:55:10,800 COMPRISES HALF OF GLOBAL FISH 2940 01:55:10,800 --> 01:55:11,760 PRODUCED. 2941 01:55:11,760 --> 01:55:13,200 IT'S REALLY RAPIDLY EXPANDING AS 2942 01:55:13,200 --> 01:55:15,440 A SHARE OF PRODUCTION. 2943 01:55:15,440 --> 01:55:20,000 SO IT'S THE FASTEST GROWING FOOD 2944 01:55:20,000 --> 01:55:22,480 SYSTEM SEGMENT TODAY, 7.5% PER 2945 01:55:22,480 --> 01:55:26,320 CAPITA GROWTH, SUPPLY INCREASED 2946 01:55:26,320 --> 01:55:29,240 FROM 9 KILOGRAMS TO 20.5 IN 2947 01:55:29,240 --> 01:55:29,680 2018. 2948 01:55:29,680 --> 01:55:32,320 SO THE CONTRAST HERE TO WILD 2949 01:55:32,320 --> 01:55:33,200 FISH PRODUCTION, BASICALLY SET 2950 01:55:33,200 --> 01:55:36,360 FOR THE LAST 30 YEARS, WE'RE 2951 01:55:36,360 --> 01:55:37,120 HARVESTING AT CAPACITY, DOING A 2952 01:55:37,120 --> 01:55:38,800 GOOD JOB OF REACHING THAT 2953 01:55:38,800 --> 01:55:40,040 MAXIMUM SUSTAINABLE YIELD BUT 2954 01:55:40,040 --> 01:55:41,840 ALSO MEANS THERE'S NOT MUCH ROOM 2955 01:55:41,840 --> 01:55:43,680 FOR GROWTH IN PRODUCTION. 2956 01:55:43,680 --> 01:55:46,640 ANY DOWN TURNS WILL IMPACT 2957 01:55:46,640 --> 01:55:47,320 AQUATIC FOOD ACCESS. 2958 01:55:47,320 --> 01:55:48,440 PRODUCTION GROWTH IS GOING TO 2959 01:55:48,440 --> 01:55:53,760 COME AND IS COMING FROM 2960 01:55:53,760 --> 01:55:54,520 AQUACULTURE, THE LARGE MAJORITY 2961 01:55:54,520 --> 01:55:56,640 OF PRODUCTION IS IN ASIA 2962 01:55:56,640 --> 01:55:59,800 PARTICULARLY CHINA BUT ALSO 2963 01:55:59,800 --> 01:56:03,640 INDIA, INDONESIA, VIETNAM, 2964 01:56:03,640 --> 01:56:04,120 BANGLADESH, CAMBODIA. 2965 01:56:04,120 --> 01:56:04,760 AQUACULTURE PRODUCTION PRIMARILY 2966 01:56:04,760 --> 01:56:10,760 IS SERVING DOMESTIC URBAN 2967 01:56:10,760 --> 01:56:14,160 MARKETS AT THE MOMENT. 2968 01:56:14,160 --> 01:56:16,320 62% IS FRESHWATER PRODUCTION, 2969 01:56:16,320 --> 01:56:18,480 AND 4% -- SORRY, FOUR SPECIES 2970 01:56:18,480 --> 01:56:24,440 MAKE UP A THIRD OF PRODUCTION. 2971 01:56:24,440 --> 01:56:25,280 REALLY BROADLY SPEAKING FISH 2972 01:56:25,280 --> 01:56:26,280 DIVERSITY IS TREMENDOUS. 2973 01:56:26,280 --> 01:56:27,920 THERE ARE MANY, MANY THOUSANDS 2974 01:56:27,920 --> 01:56:29,280 OF FISH SPECIES DESCRIBED. 2975 01:56:29,280 --> 01:56:31,640 WHEN WE LEAK AT CONSUMPTION IN 2976 01:56:31,640 --> 01:56:36,480 THE U.S., THIS IS DATA FROM 2977 01:56:36,480 --> 01:56:38,200 NHANES, 17 FISH SPECIES, 8 2978 01:56:38,200 --> 01:56:39,960 SHELLFISH SPECIES ARE THE U.S. 2979 01:56:39,960 --> 01:56:41,600 SPECTRUM OF CONSUMPTION RATE. 2980 01:56:41,600 --> 01:56:44,640 SO REALLY DIFFERENT LEVELS OF 2981 01:56:44,640 --> 01:56:47,280 DIVERSITY AROUND THE WORLD BUT 2982 01:56:47,280 --> 01:56:47,920 NONETHELESS NUMBERS THAT EXCEED 2983 01:56:47,920 --> 01:56:51,680 A LOT OF OTHER ANIMALS OR FOODS 2984 01:56:51,680 --> 01:56:53,800 WE CONSUME IN TERMS OF DIVERSITY 2985 01:56:53,800 --> 01:56:54,520 WHICH COMPLICATES THE 2986 01:56:54,520 --> 01:56:55,320 ENVIRONMENTAL PICTURE. 2987 01:56:55,320 --> 01:56:56,840 SO AROUND THE WORLD PEOPLE 2988 01:56:56,840 --> 01:56:58,480 EATING EVEN A MUCH WIDER 2989 01:56:58,480 --> 01:57:00,160 DIVERSITY OF FISH AVAILABLE IN 2990 01:57:00,160 --> 01:57:02,400 THE ECOSYSTEMS. 2991 01:57:02,400 --> 01:57:05,480 THIS IS AMALGAMATION BY MEN AND 2992 01:57:05,480 --> 01:57:07,000 WOMEN FROM FISHING HOUSEHOLDS IN 2993 01:57:07,000 --> 01:57:16,160 CANDLING BOD -- CAMBODIA THAT 2994 01:57:16,160 --> 01:57:17,600 SHOWS DIFFERENCE. 2995 01:57:17,600 --> 01:57:18,720 THEY ARE POTENTIALLY USING 2996 01:57:18,720 --> 01:57:19,680 DIFFERENT GEARS, DIFFERENT 2997 01:57:19,680 --> 01:57:21,320 PEOPLE INVOLVED IN THE HARVEST 2998 01:57:21,320 --> 01:57:23,520 OF THESE SPECIES, SUGGESTING A 2999 01:57:23,520 --> 01:57:24,600 LOT OF SPECIES-SPECIFIC 3000 01:57:24,600 --> 01:57:24,920 DIFFERENCES. 3001 01:57:24,920 --> 01:57:26,600 FOR EXAMPLE, THERE'S A LOT OF 3002 01:57:26,600 --> 01:57:33,680 VARIATION IN THERMAL TOLERANCE, 3003 01:57:33,680 --> 01:57:41,720 AFFECTED 3004 01:57:41,720 --> 01:57:43,520 AFFECT -- AFFECTED BROADLY 3005 01:57:43,520 --> 01:57:43,960 DIFFERENTLY. 3006 01:57:43,960 --> 01:57:45,320 BEFORE WE LOOK AT CLIMATE 3007 01:57:45,320 --> 01:57:46,800 ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE IMPACT ON 3008 01:57:46,800 --> 01:57:48,720 AQUATIC FOOD PRODUCTION I WANT 3009 01:57:48,720 --> 01:57:50,880 TO UNDERLINE PRODUCTION SYSTEM 3010 01:57:50,880 --> 01:57:51,640 HAS BROAD ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS, 3011 01:57:51,640 --> 01:57:54,400 MOST OF THE PUSH FOR AQUATIC 3012 01:57:54,400 --> 01:57:56,880 FOODS ARISES FROM LOW GREENHOUSE 3013 01:57:56,880 --> 01:58:02,400 GAS EMISSION, LAND USE PRESSURE, 3014 01:58:02,400 --> 01:58:03,120 STACKING UP FAVORABLY BUT THERE 3015 01:58:03,120 --> 01:58:07,880 ARE LOTS OF OTHER DIMENSIONS WE 3016 01:58:07,880 --> 01:58:09,280 MIGHT BE INTERESTED IN 3017 01:58:09,280 --> 01:58:12,240 ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT OF AQUATIC 3018 01:58:12,240 --> 01:58:14,840 FOOD. 3019 01:58:14,840 --> 01:58:19,240 BLUE, CAPTURE OR WILD, AND 3020 01:58:19,240 --> 01:58:20,560 AQUACULTURE IN GREEN. 3021 01:58:20,560 --> 01:58:22,400 ALSO ESPECIALLY IN AQUACULTURE 3022 01:58:22,400 --> 01:58:28,320 OVERLAP WITH AGRICULTURE MORE 3023 01:58:28,320 --> 01:58:29,000 BROADLY AS WELL. 3024 01:58:29,000 --> 01:58:33,240 I THINK HAVE THE IMPACT ON 3025 01:58:33,240 --> 01:58:34,640 AQUATIC FOODS I HIGHLIGHTED HERE 3026 01:58:34,640 --> 01:58:36,840 TOUCH MANY THINGS, MAYBE NOT 3027 01:58:36,840 --> 01:58:39,480 EXACTLY ALL BUT REALLY A 3028 01:58:39,480 --> 01:58:40,280 CROSS-SECTION OF THESE 3029 01:58:40,280 --> 01:58:41,040 DIMENSIONS AS WELL. 3030 01:58:41,040 --> 01:58:44,520 I'LL DISCUSS THEM A LITTLE BIT 3031 01:58:44,520 --> 01:58:44,880 FURTHER. 3032 01:58:44,880 --> 01:58:48,120 A REALLY BIG ONE IS IMPACT OF 3033 01:58:48,120 --> 01:58:48,920 RISING TEMPERATURES. 3034 01:58:48,920 --> 01:58:51,120 RESEARCH IS SHOWING EFFECT OF 3035 01:58:51,120 --> 01:58:53,600 WARMING ON FISH AVAILABILITY SO 3036 01:58:53,600 --> 01:58:56,200 FREE ET AL. EXAMINED CHANGES 3037 01:58:56,200 --> 01:58:58,760 SINCE 1930 DRIVEN BY TEMPERATURE 3038 01:58:58,760 --> 01:58:59,200 ALREADY. 3039 01:58:59,200 --> 01:59:00,560 DRIVING SHIFTS IN OCEAN 3040 01:59:00,560 --> 01:59:04,240 TEMPERATURE AS WELL AS SALINITY 3041 01:59:04,240 --> 01:59:12,440 AND ACIDITY THAT IMPACT HABITAT 3042 01:59:12,440 --> 01:59:16,840 SUITABILITY. 3043 01:59:16,840 --> 01:59:22,320 THE GRAPH HERE, 19 NEGATIVELY 3044 01:59:22,320 --> 01:59:25,000 AFFECTED, 19 TOX POSITIVELY 3045 01:59:25,000 --> 01:59:25,440 INFLUENCED. 3046 01:59:25,440 --> 01:59:26,640 POSITIVE INFLUENCE WE SEE ARE 3047 01:59:26,640 --> 01:59:29,760 DUE TO INCREASES IN NET PRIMARY 3048 01:59:29,760 --> 01:59:30,720 PRODUCTIVITY. 3049 01:59:30,720 --> 01:59:32,600 AND FOR THE AGGREGATE SUGGESTING 3050 01:59:32,600 --> 01:59:34,320 WARMING OCEAN TEMPERATURES HAVE 3051 01:59:34,320 --> 01:59:38,040 ALREADY DRIVEN A 4.1% REDUCTION 3052 01:59:38,040 --> 01:59:39,920 IN MAXIMUM SUSTAINABLE YIELD. 3053 01:59:39,920 --> 01:59:42,200 THERE'S IMPORTANT DISPARITIES 3054 01:59:42,200 --> 01:59:44,480 ACROSS SETTINGS THOUGH. 3055 01:59:44,480 --> 01:59:46,880 MODELS ARE COMBINING HABITAT 3056 01:59:46,880 --> 01:59:47,600 SUITABILITY BASED ON TEMPERATURE 3057 01:59:47,600 --> 01:59:49,640 CONDITIONS WITH CHANGES IN NET 3058 01:59:49,640 --> 01:59:50,520 PRIMARY PRODUCTIVITY TO PROJECT 3059 01:59:50,520 --> 01:59:52,040 IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE INTO 3060 01:59:52,040 --> 01:59:53,680 THE FUTURE. 3061 01:59:53,680 --> 01:59:54,760 AND THEY ALSO PROJECT 3062 01:59:54,760 --> 01:59:57,080 SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES ON FISH 3063 01:59:57,080 --> 02:00:00,560 AVAILABILITY, THIS IS JUST 3064 02:00:00,560 --> 02:00:03,600 LOOKING AT MARINE SPECIES. 3065 02:00:03,600 --> 02:00:08,440 WARMER COLORS PROJECTED TO 3066 02:00:08,440 --> 02:00:10,080 EXPERIENCE INCREASING DECLINES, 3067 02:00:10,080 --> 02:00:11,960 SUGGESTING 6% REDUCTION AND 3068 02:00:11,960 --> 02:00:13,480 RESEARCH ON NUTRITIONAL IMPACT 3069 02:00:13,480 --> 02:00:14,640 SUGGESTS 10% OF THE POPULATION 3070 02:00:14,640 --> 02:00:17,840 COULD BE AT RISK OF NUTRITIONAL 3071 02:00:17,840 --> 02:00:19,840 DEFICIENCIES AS A RESULT. 3072 02:00:19,840 --> 02:00:21,880 WE'RE THINKING OF MICRONUTRIENT 3073 02:00:21,880 --> 02:00:24,440 AND FATTY ACID DEFICIENCY, NOT 3074 02:00:24,440 --> 02:00:24,680 PROTEIN. 3075 02:00:24,680 --> 02:00:29,320 PROTEIN IS A FACTOR AS WELL. 3076 02:00:29,320 --> 02:00:30,920 THESE ARE PROJECTIONS, 3077 02:00:30,920 --> 02:00:32,120 SUBSTANTIAL CONSEQUENCES FOR 3078 02:00:32,120 --> 02:00:32,880 GLOBAL FISH PRODUCTION, 3079 02:00:32,880 --> 02:00:34,360 ESPECIALLY IN CONTEXT OF THE 3080 02:00:34,360 --> 02:00:36,280 FACT WE WOULD LIKE IT TO 3081 02:00:36,280 --> 02:00:37,560 INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AND 3082 02:00:37,560 --> 02:00:41,000 THINKING ABOUT INTERACTIONS 3083 02:00:41,000 --> 02:00:43,400 ACROSS FOOD SYSTEMS. 3084 02:00:43,400 --> 02:00:45,000 THIS MAP SHOWS HAZARDS SCORES 3085 02:00:45,000 --> 02:00:46,440 FOR COMBINED IMPACTS OF CLIMATE 3086 02:00:46,440 --> 02:00:50,800 CHANGE ON MARINE AND FRESH WATER 3087 02:00:50,800 --> 02:00:54,000 WILD FISHERIES AND AQUACULTURE 3088 02:00:54,000 --> 02:00:57,880 BY 2050, UNDER HIGH EMISSION 3089 02:00:57,880 --> 02:00:59,000 CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO. 3090 02:00:59,000 --> 02:01:02,360 THEY DID A NICE JOB OF PULLING 3091 02:01:02,360 --> 02:01:03,280 TOGETHER IMPACTS. 3092 02:01:03,280 --> 02:01:05,880 THE IMPACTS ARE FELT EVERYWHERE. 3093 02:01:05,880 --> 02:01:08,720 BUT THERE'S ALSO A BIT OF DOUBLE 3094 02:01:08,720 --> 02:01:09,920 JEOPARDY, GREATER DEPENDENCE IN 3095 02:01:09,920 --> 02:01:11,760 THE TROPICS ON AQUATIC FOODS FOR 3096 02:01:11,760 --> 02:01:17,360 FOOD AND LIVELY HOODS COINCIDES 3097 02:01:17,360 --> 02:01:24,240 WITH RISK OF HAZARDS IN THE 3098 02:01:24,240 --> 02:01:25,040 TROPICS. 3099 02:01:25,040 --> 02:01:26,320 WITH WARMING GREATEST ON 3100 02:01:26,320 --> 02:01:27,640 CONTINENTAL LAND MASSES COMPARED 3101 02:01:27,640 --> 02:01:29,080 TO OCEANS MEANING THAT THERE 3102 02:01:29,080 --> 02:01:31,320 WILL BE ESPECIALLY LARGE IMPACTS 3103 02:01:31,320 --> 02:01:34,080 ON INLAND AND IN SHORE 3104 02:01:34,080 --> 02:01:35,200 FISHERIES, BUT ACROSS THE BOARD 3105 02:01:35,200 --> 02:01:36,720 AND I THINK ONGOING THEME OF 3106 02:01:36,720 --> 02:01:39,480 THIS TALK IS THE MECHANISMS OF 3107 02:01:39,480 --> 02:01:40,760 IMPACT DIFFER WIDELY. 3108 02:01:40,760 --> 02:01:49,000 AND BY SECTOR. 3109 02:01:49,000 --> 02:01:51,520 FOR EXAMPLE, PILAGIC FISHERIES 3110 02:01:51,520 --> 02:01:58,200 HAVE TO CONTENT WITH CHANGES, 3111 02:01:58,200 --> 02:02:01,480 BIVALVE, INLAND WITH TIMING, BED 3112 02:02:01,480 --> 02:02:03,040 AQUACULTURE INTERACTING WITH 3113 02:02:03,040 --> 02:02:07,440 TERRESTRIAL CROP LOSS AND FEED 3114 02:02:07,440 --> 02:02:08,320 AVAILABILITY AS WELL. 3115 02:02:08,320 --> 02:02:10,160 I'M GOING TO SHOW A PICTURE OF 3116 02:02:10,160 --> 02:02:12,920 THE CLIMATE CHANGE AND 3117 02:02:12,920 --> 02:02:14,760 FRESHWATER FISHERIES IMPACTS 3118 02:02:14,760 --> 02:02:16,280 WE'RE THINKING ABOUT IN THE 3119 02:02:16,280 --> 02:02:17,200 TONLE SAP REGION. 3120 02:02:17,200 --> 02:02:22,840 THIS WATER BODY LEER IS THETON 3121 02:02:22,840 --> 02:02:26,840 SAP LAKE IN CAMBODIA, THIS IS 3122 02:02:26,840 --> 02:02:27,880 THE MEKENG RIVER. 3123 02:02:27,880 --> 02:02:30,320 THIS SHOWS THE FLOOD PULSE OF 3124 02:02:30,320 --> 02:02:33,600 THE TONLE SAP LAKE ANNUALLY. 3125 02:02:33,600 --> 02:02:39,720 AND THIS UNDERLINES THE SCALE 3126 02:02:39,720 --> 02:02:46,200 FRESH WATER DRIVES, THIS 3127 02:02:46,200 --> 02:02:50,240 INCREASE IS DRIVEN BY RAIN WATER 3128 02:02:50,240 --> 02:02:53,920 AND WATER FROM THE MEKONG RIVER, 3129 02:02:53,920 --> 02:02:55,000 WITH IMPLICATIONS OF CHANGING 3130 02:02:55,000 --> 02:02:56,840 WATER AVAILABILITY HERE. 3131 02:02:56,840 --> 02:03:00,680 FRESH WATERS ARE SHALLOWER, 3132 02:03:00,680 --> 02:03:02,320 HYDROLOGICALLY DISTINCT, HIGHLY 3133 02:03:02,320 --> 02:03:09,000 INFLUENCED BY SEASONAL SHIFTS, 3134 02:03:09,000 --> 02:03:09,280 EVAPORATION. 3135 02:03:09,280 --> 02:03:10,160 FISH ARE STUCK IN THE WATER BODY 3136 02:03:10,160 --> 02:03:11,480 THEY ARE IN. 3137 02:03:11,480 --> 02:03:13,680 IF THERE'S LESS WATER THAT 3138 02:03:13,680 --> 02:03:16,960 ENTERS THE SYSTEM ENTIRELY, THE 3139 02:03:16,960 --> 02:03:18,960 ENTIRE PRODUCTION SYSTEM HINGES 3140 02:03:18,960 --> 02:03:22,960 ON THE HABITAT THAT BECOMES 3141 02:03:22,960 --> 02:03:25,600 AVAILABLE IN THIS PULSE, AND 3142 02:03:25,600 --> 02:03:26,800 LIKEWISE REALLY EXTREME 3143 02:03:26,800 --> 02:03:27,920 CONSEQUENCES COULD MEAN THAT 3144 02:03:27,920 --> 02:03:30,680 THIS PULSE DOESN'T HAPPEN IN 3145 02:03:30,680 --> 02:03:32,920 NEARLY THE SAME WAY. 3146 02:03:32,920 --> 02:03:34,960 AND THE HISTORY OF THE FISH IS 3147 02:03:34,960 --> 02:03:36,880 INTEGRATED WITH THE SYSTEM. 3148 02:03:36,880 --> 02:03:38,240 THE CLIMATE CHANGE HAS POTENTIAL 3149 02:03:38,240 --> 02:03:42,920 HERE IN EXTREME CASES TO JUST 3150 02:03:42,920 --> 02:03:43,600 FUNDAMENTALLY SHIFT SYSTEMS 3151 02:03:43,600 --> 02:03:45,440 ENTIRELY, IN WAYS THAT HAVE BEEN 3152 02:03:45,440 --> 02:03:49,640 REALLY HARD FOR SCIENTISTS TO 3153 02:03:49,640 --> 02:03:52,360 PREDICT WHAT WILL HAPPEN. 3154 02:03:52,360 --> 02:03:53,960 AND SO ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGES 3155 02:03:53,960 --> 02:03:56,280 PROJECTED TO IMPACT AQUATIC FOOD 3156 02:03:56,280 --> 02:03:58,360 PRODUCTION, LOTS OF POTENTIAL 3157 02:03:58,360 --> 02:04:00,200 INDIRECT IMPACTS TO TEMPERATURE 3158 02:04:00,200 --> 02:04:01,440 CHANGES, CLIMATE, ENVIRONMENTAL 3159 02:04:01,440 --> 02:04:04,600 IMPACTS THAT INTERACT HERE. 3160 02:04:04,600 --> 02:04:05,600 SO, LONGSTANDING CHALLENGES IN A 3161 02:04:05,600 --> 02:04:08,120 LOT OF SYSTEMS ARE DUE TO 3162 02:04:08,120 --> 02:04:09,080 INVASIVE SPECIES, DISEASE, 3163 02:04:09,080 --> 02:04:15,240 HABITAT LOSS, DEGRADATION, 3164 02:04:15,240 --> 02:04:15,840 BIODIVERSITY LOSS INTERACTING 3165 02:04:15,840 --> 02:04:18,480 WITH CLIMATE CHANGE AS WELL. 3166 02:04:18,480 --> 02:04:21,360 FOR EXAMPLE, HABITATS LIKE 3167 02:04:21,360 --> 02:04:22,680 MANGROVES THAT BUFFER COASTLINES 3168 02:04:22,680 --> 02:04:25,720 AND POTENTIALLY ALSO CORAL REEF 3169 02:04:25,720 --> 02:04:29,320 HABITATS WILL BE AN INTERACTIVE 3170 02:04:29,320 --> 02:04:32,040 EFFECT ON PRODUCTION IN SOME 3171 02:04:32,040 --> 02:04:34,160 CORAL SYSTEMS IF WE'RE SEEING 3172 02:04:34,160 --> 02:04:35,880 BIODIVERSITY LOSS ALONGSIDE 3173 02:04:35,880 --> 02:04:37,200 CLIMATE CHANGE. 3174 02:04:37,200 --> 02:04:38,720 ANOTHER EXAMPLE, POLLUTION TO 3175 02:04:38,720 --> 02:04:43,640 AQUATIC SYSTEMS IS POTENTIALLY 3176 02:04:43,640 --> 02:04:52,920 EXACERBATED BY INTERACTING WITH 3177 02:04:52,920 --> 02:04:53,760 CLIMATES CHANGE. 3178 02:04:53,760 --> 02:04:55,840 POLLUTION AROUND LAKE VICTORIA 3179 02:04:55,840 --> 02:04:58,720 WHERE THIS PICTURE IS TAKEN, 3180 02:04:58,720 --> 02:05:05,920 CONTRIBUTE TO THE EXPANSION OF 3181 02:05:05,920 --> 02:05:06,480 HARMFUL ALGAL BLOOMS, 3182 02:05:06,480 --> 02:05:08,120 INTENSIFYING AROUND THE WORLD. 3183 02:05:08,120 --> 02:05:10,280 TEMPERATURE CHANGES ARE MAKING 3184 02:05:10,280 --> 02:05:12,360 THESE WORSE BUT THERE ARE 3185 02:05:12,360 --> 02:05:15,760 FEEDBACKS HERE TO OTHER 3186 02:05:15,760 --> 02:05:17,640 AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS AND THE 3187 02:05:17,640 --> 02:05:18,480 BROADER FOOD SYSTEM. 3188 02:05:18,480 --> 02:05:20,040 SO THE BLOOMS NOT ONLY 3189 02:05:20,040 --> 02:05:22,680 POTENTIALLY HAVING AN IMPACT ON 3190 02:05:22,680 --> 02:05:23,480 DRINKING WATER, IRRIGATION 3191 02:05:23,480 --> 02:05:25,080 WATER, AND WATER THAT MIGHT BE 3192 02:05:25,080 --> 02:05:27,680 USED WITH LIVE STOCK IN VARIOUS 3193 02:05:27,680 --> 02:05:30,000 WAYS, BUT ALSO THE CONTAMINANTS 3194 02:05:30,000 --> 02:05:31,640 THEY ARE PRODUCING ACCUMULATING 3195 02:05:31,640 --> 02:05:32,720 IN FISH. 3196 02:05:32,720 --> 02:05:36,240 SO TRYING TO THINK ABOUT SORT OF 3197 02:05:36,240 --> 02:05:37,320 THESE INTERACTIONS WITH OTHER 3198 02:05:37,320 --> 02:05:39,520 ASPECTS OF THE FOOD SYSTEM AND 3199 02:05:39,520 --> 02:05:44,080 DIMENSIONS OF FOOD SAFETY HERE. 3200 02:05:44,080 --> 02:05:45,520 MERCURY METHYLATION LIKELY TO BE 3201 02:05:45,520 --> 02:05:47,360 IMPACTED BY CLIMATE CHANGE AS 3202 02:05:47,360 --> 02:05:47,920 WELL. 3203 02:05:47,920 --> 02:05:50,120 THE OTHER BIG ONE HERE TO 3204 02:05:50,120 --> 02:05:52,760 MENTION IS COMPETING DEMANDS FOR 3205 02:05:52,760 --> 02:05:54,320 FRESH WATER. 3206 02:05:54,320 --> 02:05:55,400 ENERGY PRODUCTION, A TREMENDOUS 3207 02:05:55,400 --> 02:05:59,320 ONE, AS WE SEE CLIMATE SHIFTS, 3208 02:05:59,320 --> 02:06:00,640 LIKE DAMS THAT ARE POTENTIALLY 3209 02:06:00,640 --> 02:06:04,920 HAVING A HUGE IMPACT ON THE 3210 02:06:04,920 --> 02:06:07,760 MEKONG RIVER, WHETHER FLOWS 3211 02:06:07,760 --> 02:06:08,600 REACH THE CAMBODIAN ECOSYSTEM 3212 02:06:08,600 --> 02:06:15,400 LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY CLIMATE 3213 02:06:15,400 --> 02:06:17,160 CHANGE, NEED FOR IRRIGATION 3214 02:06:17,160 --> 02:06:18,160 WATER AS WELL. 3215 02:06:18,160 --> 02:06:19,360 ON THE AQUACULTURE SIDE THIS IS 3216 02:06:19,360 --> 02:06:20,880 AN AREA WHERE THERE'S 3217 02:06:20,880 --> 02:06:23,920 POTENTIALLY A LOT OF RESIDENCE 3218 02:06:23,920 --> 02:06:26,120 WITH OTHER AGRICULTURE SYSTEMS 3219 02:06:26,120 --> 02:06:27,760 BUT BECAUSE IT'S NEW AND -- NOT 3220 02:06:27,760 --> 02:06:28,880 NEW BUT GROWING VERY FAST 3221 02:06:28,880 --> 02:06:33,120 THERE'S ALSO A LOT OF MOVEMENT 3222 02:06:33,120 --> 02:06:33,320 HERE. 3223 02:06:33,320 --> 02:06:34,880 SO, AQUACULTURE ENCOMPASSES A 3224 02:06:34,880 --> 02:06:36,200 CONTINUUM OF PRODUCTION, THERE'S 3225 02:06:36,200 --> 02:06:38,280 A RANGE OF PRACTICES FROM DOING 3226 02:06:38,280 --> 02:06:41,240 THINGS LIKE STOCKING RICE FIELD 3227 02:06:41,240 --> 02:06:44,160 FISHERIES TO INTENSIVE 3228 02:06:44,160 --> 02:06:48,440 AQUACULTURE SYSTEMS 3229 02:06:48,440 --> 02:06:49,560 RECIRCULATING USING VERY LITTLE 3230 02:06:49,560 --> 02:06:50,960 WATER TO PRODUCE FISH RELATIVE 3231 02:06:50,960 --> 02:06:56,560 TO OTHER SYSTEMS BY REAR 3232 02:06:56,560 --> 02:06:57,640 CIRCULATE -- RECIRCULATING AND 3233 02:06:57,640 --> 02:07:05,720 CLEANING PROCESS. 3234 02:07:05,720 --> 02:07:11,760 MORE CONTROLLED FLEXIBLE CITING 3235 02:07:11,760 --> 02:07:13,640 PROVIDES INSULATION YET THEY 3236 02:07:13,640 --> 02:07:15,960 HAVE INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENTS 3237 02:07:15,960 --> 02:07:16,680 ESPECIALLY ALONG COASTLINES 3238 02:07:16,680 --> 02:07:18,360 VULNERABLE TO EXTREME WATER AND 3239 02:07:18,360 --> 02:07:21,640 LOTS OF INNOVATION IN GENERAL. 3240 02:07:21,640 --> 02:07:23,800 PARTICULARLY AROUND THE FEED. 3241 02:07:23,800 --> 02:07:25,880 AT THE MOMENT THERE'S 3242 02:07:25,880 --> 02:07:28,280 SUBSTANTIAL DEPENDENCE ON WILD 3243 02:07:28,280 --> 02:07:29,720 FISHERIES, ANOTHER POINT 3244 02:07:29,720 --> 02:07:32,360 THINKING ABOUT INTERACTION, SO 3245 02:07:32,360 --> 02:07:33,680 IT'S TEMPTING TO THINK OF 3246 02:07:33,680 --> 02:07:35,080 AQUACULTURE AS A SOLUTION FOR 3247 02:07:35,080 --> 02:07:40,320 CHALLENGES WILD FISHERIES WILL 3248 02:07:40,320 --> 02:07:42,520 FACE BUT THEY ARE INTERTWINED. 3249 02:07:42,520 --> 02:07:45,920 I'LL HIGHLIGHT ONE LAST POINT, 3250 02:07:45,920 --> 02:07:49,200 THAT WHEN WE BRING PEOPLE INTO 3251 02:07:49,200 --> 02:07:52,480 THE EQUATION, FISH CATCH IS A 3252 02:07:52,480 --> 02:07:54,240 FUNCTION OF WHAT'S GOING ON WITH 3253 02:07:54,240 --> 02:07:55,800 THE FISH POPULATION BUT WHAT 3254 02:07:55,800 --> 02:07:56,760 PEOPLE ARE DOING. 3255 02:07:56,760 --> 02:08:00,040 ARE THEY GOING AFTER FISH, ARE 3256 02:08:00,040 --> 02:08:02,040 THEY -- HOW MUCH TIME ARE THEY 3257 02:08:02,040 --> 02:08:05,280 SPENDING, AND WHAT WE FOUND IN 3258 02:08:05,280 --> 02:08:11,320 CAMBODIA, ESPECIALLY THE 3259 02:08:11,320 --> 02:08:12,520 ALTERNATIVE FACTORS AS 3260 02:08:12,520 --> 02:08:14,720 TEMPERATURES RISE HAD A BIG 3261 02:08:14,720 --> 02:08:14,960 IMPACT. 3262 02:08:14,960 --> 02:08:17,240 ESPECIALLY FOR DIVERSIFIED HOUSE 3263 02:08:17,240 --> 02:08:19,120 HOLDS DOING LOTS OF THINGS 3264 02:08:19,120 --> 02:08:23,920 FISHING MILD BE -- MIGHT BE ONE 3265 02:08:23,920 --> 02:08:25,360 BUT LIKELY FARMING TOO. 3266 02:08:25,360 --> 02:08:27,200 CLIMATE CHANGES ARE GOING TO 3267 02:08:27,200 --> 02:08:37,760 AFFECT THEIR WHOLE PORTFOLIO OF 3268 02:08:39,080 --> 02:08:39,880 LIVELIHOODS AT ONCE. 3269 02:08:39,880 --> 02:08:44,480 THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION. 3270 02:08:44,480 --> 02:08:50,120 I'M GOING TO PASS TO LEW ZISKA 3271 02:08:50,120 --> 02:08:52,880 TO TAKE US THROUGH THE CROP 3272 02:08:52,880 --> 02:08:53,200 SYSTEMS AS WELL. 3273 02:08:53,200 --> 02:08:54,720 >> THANK YOU, KATIE. 3274 02:08:54,720 --> 02:08:57,680 I WANT TO DO IT FROM CROP 3275 02:08:57,680 --> 02:08:58,760 SYSTEMS PERSPECTIVE TO CONTINUE 3276 02:08:58,760 --> 02:09:00,800 THIS SORT OF DIFFERENT SYSTEMS 3277 02:09:00,800 --> 02:09:04,840 APPROACH THAT WE'VE DONE SO FAR. 3278 02:09:04,840 --> 02:09:06,840 SPECIFICALLY, LOOKING AT IT FROM 3279 02:09:06,840 --> 02:09:09,360 NOT ONLY A CLIMATE PERSPECTIVE 3280 02:09:09,360 --> 02:09:12,000 BUT ALSO FROM A ROLE OF CARBON 3281 02:09:12,000 --> 02:09:14,920 DIOXIDE PLAYS IN FOOD SYSTEMS IN 3282 02:09:14,920 --> 02:09:16,720 REGARD TO NUTRITION. 3283 02:09:16,720 --> 02:09:20,640 SO WE ALL RECOGNIZE THAT THE 3284 02:09:20,640 --> 02:09:22,160 RESOURCES PLANTS NEED IN ORDER 3285 02:09:22,160 --> 02:09:24,080 TO GROW, KEEP IN MIND THAT ONE 3286 02:09:24,080 --> 02:09:26,000 OF THESE RESOURCES, CARBON 3287 02:09:26,000 --> 02:09:29,280 DIOXIDE, LAST INCREASED BY 30% 3288 02:09:29,280 --> 02:09:29,520 ALREADY. 3289 02:09:29,520 --> 02:09:32,000 LIKELY TO INCREASE ANOTHER 50% 3290 02:09:32,000 --> 02:09:34,600 IN THE NEAR TERM. 3291 02:09:34,600 --> 02:09:37,160 WHEN YOU LOOK AT THAT INCREASE 3292 02:09:37,160 --> 02:09:40,120 AS IN ANY PLANT SYSTEM, WHETHER 3293 02:09:40,120 --> 02:09:40,880 MANAGED OR UNMANAGED, THERE'S 3294 02:09:40,880 --> 02:09:43,080 GOING TO BE A DIFFERENTIAL 3295 02:09:43,080 --> 02:09:44,280 RESPONSE TO IT. 3296 02:09:44,280 --> 02:09:47,040 THIS PICTURE IS ACTUALLY NOT A 3297 02:09:47,040 --> 02:09:48,120 LANDING SITE FOR UFOs. 3298 02:09:48,120 --> 02:09:53,720 BUT WHAT IT IS IS A FREE AIR CO2 3299 02:09:53,720 --> 02:09:56,200 ENRICHMENT SITE. 3300 02:09:56,200 --> 02:09:57,120 THESE ARE LOB LOLLY PINE GROWING 3301 02:09:57,120 --> 02:09:59,600 IN THE CENTER OF THE DUKE 3302 02:09:59,600 --> 02:09:59,960 FOREST. 3303 02:09:59,960 --> 02:10:02,760 YOU HAVE CO2 COMING IN, ALL THE 3304 02:10:02,760 --> 02:10:04,000 BELLS AND WHISTLES CONTROLLING 3305 02:10:04,000 --> 02:10:05,960 CO2 WHEN THE WIND CHANGES. 3306 02:10:05,960 --> 02:10:08,160 WHEN I INCREASE CO2 IN HERE, IT 3307 02:10:08,160 --> 02:10:09,440 ISN'T JUST THE PINES THAT ARE 3308 02:10:09,440 --> 02:10:10,880 GOING TO RESPOND. 3309 02:10:10,880 --> 02:10:14,840 IT WAS THIS SPECIES THAT SHOWED 3310 02:10:14,840 --> 02:10:15,920 GREATEST RELATIVE RESPONSE TO 3311 02:10:15,920 --> 02:10:24,960 THE CHANGE IN IN CARBON DIOXID. 3312 02:10:24,960 --> 02:10:26,760 SOME OF YOU ARE SPECIAL 3313 02:10:26,760 --> 02:10:27,960 EXPERIENCE WITH THIS VINE, 3314 02:10:27,960 --> 02:10:29,640 POISON IVY. 3315 02:10:29,640 --> 02:10:32,240 WHEN WE LOOK AT THIS IN A LARGER 3316 02:10:32,240 --> 02:10:40,440 CONTEXT WITH RESPECT TO FOOD, WE 3317 02:10:40,440 --> 02:10:41,840 RECOGNIZE THE ISSUE. 3318 02:10:41,840 --> 02:10:48,520 IN EAST AFRICA A PURPOSE DIE -- 3319 02:10:48,520 --> 02:10:50,920 A PERSON DIES OF HUNGER EVERY 30 3320 02:10:50,920 --> 02:10:52,080 SECONDS, RISING EVEN PRIOR TO 3321 02:10:52,080 --> 02:10:54,800 THE PANDEMIC, THERE ARE PLACES 3322 02:10:54,800 --> 02:10:59,320 IN EAST AFRICA SEVERE FOOD 3323 02:10:59,320 --> 02:10:59,520 WARNING. 3324 02:10:59,520 --> 02:11:05,440 WHEN IT'S TIME TO LOOK AT FOOD 3325 02:11:05,440 --> 02:11:08,160 SECURITY AND CARBON DIOXIDE, 3326 02:11:08,160 --> 02:11:10,280 THERE ARE ASPECTS, WATER, 3327 02:11:10,280 --> 02:11:14,080 TEMPERATURE, ENERGY, EXTREME 3328 02:11:14,080 --> 02:11:14,560 ENVIRONMENTS. 3329 02:11:14,560 --> 02:11:15,400 THE BIOTIC ASPECT, DIFFERENT 3330 02:11:15,400 --> 02:11:15,680 PESTS. 3331 02:11:15,680 --> 02:11:18,240 I WON'T HAVE TIME TO FOCUS ON 3332 02:11:18,240 --> 02:11:18,640 THOSE. 3333 02:11:18,640 --> 02:11:24,800 I'LL EMPHASIZE WHEAT ISSUES. 3334 02:11:24,800 --> 02:11:27,240 AND QUALITY AND SAFETY, THEY 3335 02:11:27,240 --> 02:11:28,640 DON'T GET ENOUGH ATTENTION. 3336 02:11:28,640 --> 02:11:30,160 A LITTLE BIT OF TALK LOOKING AT 3337 02:11:30,160 --> 02:11:32,920 DISTRIBUTION IN TERMS OF EXTREME 3338 02:11:32,920 --> 02:11:33,120 EVENTS. 3339 02:11:33,120 --> 02:11:37,840 SO, WHEN IT COMES TIME TO LOOK 3340 02:11:37,840 --> 02:11:39,160 AT IRRIGATION WE RECOGNIZE THAT 3341 02:11:39,160 --> 02:11:40,680 70% OF THE WATER THAT WE 3342 02:11:40,680 --> 02:11:43,320 CURRENTLY USE IN PUBLIC SYSTEMS 3343 02:11:43,320 --> 02:11:44,840 GOES TO AG. 3344 02:11:44,840 --> 02:11:47,880 22% IS INDUSTRIAL. 3345 02:11:47,880 --> 02:11:49,760 8% IS MUNICIPAL. 3346 02:11:49,760 --> 02:11:55,600 BUT THAT REALLY MEANS 80% OF ALL 3347 02:11:55,600 --> 02:11:57,000 THE IRRIGATION NOT IRRIGATED 3348 02:11:57,000 --> 02:11:59,720 RELIES ON RAIN FED AND PATTERNS 3349 02:11:59,720 --> 02:12:00,760 AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE 3350 02:12:00,760 --> 02:12:02,120 PROBLEMATIC AT THE MOMENT. 3351 02:12:02,120 --> 02:12:04,920 AND THEN FOR THE 20% OF LAND 3352 02:12:04,920 --> 02:12:07,640 THAT IS IRRIGATED, ABOUT 75% IS 3353 02:12:07,640 --> 02:12:10,240 FLOOD IRRIGATED, ABOUT 20% IS 3354 02:12:10,240 --> 02:12:12,000 SPRINKLERS, ONLY A VERY SMALL 3355 02:12:12,000 --> 02:12:16,480 PERCENT IS USED IN 3356 02:12:16,480 --> 02:12:17,480 MICROIRRIGATION, OR SURFACE DRIP 3357 02:12:17,480 --> 02:12:18,360 OR VARIED DRIP. 3358 02:12:18,360 --> 02:12:21,120 WHEN YOU LOOK AT CLIMATE AND 3359 02:12:21,120 --> 02:12:25,920 WATER AVAILABILITY, EXTREME 3360 02:12:25,920 --> 02:12:28,720 RAINFALL IS OCCURRING OVER THE 3361 02:12:28,720 --> 02:12:30,480 CONTIGUOUS U.S. THAT'S BEEN 3362 02:12:30,480 --> 02:12:30,760 DOCUMENTED. 3363 02:12:30,760 --> 02:12:33,240 WE HAVE AREAS THAT ARE BECOMING 3364 02:12:33,240 --> 02:12:35,200 DRYER PARTICULARLY THE WESTERN 3365 02:12:35,200 --> 02:12:37,600 UNITED STATES THAT ARE NOT 3366 02:12:37,600 --> 02:12:38,920 SEEING NORMAL PRECIPITATION. 3367 02:12:38,920 --> 02:12:41,960 AND THE END RESULT IS THAT MANY 3368 02:12:41,960 --> 02:12:46,880 RIVERS THAT WE CONSIDER SORT OF 3369 02:12:46,880 --> 02:12:49,320 PART AND PARCEL OF THE COUNTRY 3370 02:12:49,320 --> 02:12:51,080 SUCH AS THE MISSISSIPPI ARE 3371 02:12:51,080 --> 02:12:53,400 DRYING UP TO THE POINT WHERE 3372 02:12:53,400 --> 02:12:55,760 BARGE TRAFFIC IS ACTUALLY BEING 3373 02:12:55,760 --> 02:12:56,400 AFFECTED. 3374 02:12:56,400 --> 02:12:59,120 THIS OCCURRED, THIS IS FROM 3375 02:12:59,120 --> 02:13:01,440 2022, BUT BACK IN 2012 THERE WAS 3376 02:13:01,440 --> 02:13:04,080 SIMILAR EFFECTS OF DROUGHT ON 3377 02:13:04,080 --> 02:13:05,080 THE MISSISSIPPI. 3378 02:13:05,080 --> 02:13:07,440 AND THIS IS THE COLORADO. 3379 02:13:07,440 --> 02:13:08,680 BASICALLY NOW I THINK FOUR OUT 3380 02:13:08,680 --> 02:13:10,640 OF FIVE YEARS IT DOESN'T FLOW TO 3381 02:13:10,640 --> 02:13:13,000 THE OCEAN, ALL THE WATER IS 3382 02:13:13,000 --> 02:13:14,560 TAKEN OUT BEFORE IT GETS THERE. 3383 02:13:14,560 --> 02:13:16,080 THAT ISSUE WITH RESPECT TO WATER 3384 02:13:16,080 --> 02:13:17,880 IS VERY IMPORTANT IN TERMS OF 3385 02:13:17,880 --> 02:13:18,920 CROP SYSTEMS. 3386 02:13:18,920 --> 02:13:20,800 WE LOOK AT TEMPERATURE AND 3387 02:13:20,800 --> 02:13:22,960 FLORAL STABILITY THERE'S ANOTHER 3388 02:13:22,960 --> 02:13:25,200 ISSUE THAT IS DIFFERENT ORGANS 3389 02:13:25,200 --> 02:13:29,880 OF THE PLANT RESPOND TO 3390 02:13:29,880 --> 02:13:30,960 TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIALLY. 3391 02:13:30,960 --> 02:13:34,600 PARTICULAR AREA IS THE FLOWERING 3392 02:13:34,600 --> 02:13:36,240 ASPECT, POLLEN CAN BECOME 3393 02:13:36,240 --> 02:13:37,520 STERILE AT LOW TEMPERATURES, 3394 02:13:37,520 --> 02:13:39,680 EVEN IF THE PLANT LOOKS GREEN 3395 02:13:39,680 --> 02:13:41,360 FLOWERS ARE AFFECTED IN SUCH A 3396 02:13:41,360 --> 02:13:42,880 WAY THERE'S NO SEED SET. 3397 02:13:42,880 --> 02:13:48,040 YOU CAN SEE OVER HERE LOOKING AT 3398 02:13:48,040 --> 02:13:52,560 SOMETHING LIKE RICE OR PEANUT, A 3399 02:13:52,560 --> 02:13:54,560 ONCE THE TEMPERATURE GOES UP A 3400 02:13:54,560 --> 02:13:56,600 COUPLE DEGREES YOU'LL SEE A 3401 02:13:56,600 --> 02:13:58,400 LARGE DROP-OFF IN TERMS OF SEED 3402 02:13:58,400 --> 02:14:02,200 SET AND JUST TO GIVE SOME SEM 3403 02:14:02,200 --> 02:14:04,880 PICTURES OF WHAT POLLEN LOOKS 3404 02:14:04,880 --> 02:14:06,440 LIKE IF TEMPERATURE IS EXCEEDED. 3405 02:14:06,440 --> 02:14:09,440 IN TERMS OF ENERGY, ENERGY IS 3406 02:14:09,440 --> 02:14:15,000 NECESSARY TO PROVIDE AMOUNTS OF 3407 02:14:15,000 --> 02:14:17,440 NITROGEN NECESSARY FOR THINGS 3408 02:14:17,440 --> 02:14:20,800 LIKE CORN, IT'S PROVIDED BY A 3409 02:14:20,800 --> 02:14:22,240 PROCESS THAT IN TURN IS RELATED 3410 02:14:22,240 --> 02:14:26,360 TO ENERGY WHEN YOU STOP LOOKING 3411 02:14:26,360 --> 02:14:31,320 AT THE FOOD INDEX CRISIS, WHAT 3412 02:14:31,320 --> 02:14:38,320 HAPPENED TO CRUDE OIL PRICES. 3413 02:14:38,320 --> 02:14:39,280 ENERGY NEEDED TO PRODUCE 3414 02:14:39,280 --> 02:14:42,920 NITROGEN IS VERY MUCH TIED INTO 3415 02:14:42,920 --> 02:14:43,240 THAT. 3416 02:14:43,240 --> 02:14:46,560 WHEN YOU LOOK AT RECENT CHANGES, 3417 02:14:46,560 --> 02:14:50,040 PARTICULARLY UKRAINIAN WAR, THAT 3418 02:14:50,040 --> 02:14:51,800 HAS CAUSED INCREASE FERTILIZER 3419 02:14:51,800 --> 02:14:53,120 TO SKYROCKET IN PART BECAUSE 3420 02:14:53,120 --> 02:14:55,720 RUSSIA, A MAJOR SOURCE OF CHEAP 3421 02:14:55,720 --> 02:14:59,160 ENERGY, AND ALSO MAJOR SOURCE OF 3422 02:14:59,160 --> 02:15:00,360 FERTILIZER NECESSARY. 3423 02:15:00,360 --> 02:15:02,760 SO THOSE ARE SOME OF THE ISSUES 3424 02:15:02,760 --> 02:15:04,600 RELATED TO ENERGY, CLIMATE 3425 02:15:04,600 --> 02:15:05,800 EXTREMES ARE ALSO IMPORTANT. 3426 02:15:05,800 --> 02:15:09,560 WHEN YOU LOOK AT WHERE 3427 02:15:09,560 --> 02:15:10,440 MCDONALD'S GETS ITS FRIES, 3428 02:15:10,440 --> 02:15:13,480 POTATOES THAT ARE GROWN THERE, 3429 02:15:13,480 --> 02:15:16,040 THE AMOUNTS OF WHAT HAPPENS 3430 02:15:16,040 --> 02:15:21,160 THERE IS BASED ON A LIMITED SET 3431 02:15:21,160 --> 02:15:23,000 OF GENETICS FOR POTATO, THE TYPE 3432 02:15:23,000 --> 02:15:25,320 TO MAKE FRIES. 3433 02:15:25,320 --> 02:15:27,200 LIMITING GENETIC VARIABILITY OF 3434 02:15:27,200 --> 02:15:28,840 THOSE POTATOES WHEN THE CLIMATE 3435 02:15:28,840 --> 02:15:33,320 CHANGES YOU'RE GOING TO NOT HAVE 3436 02:15:33,320 --> 02:15:37,600 THE GENETIC VERSATILITY 3437 02:15:37,600 --> 02:15:38,600 NECESSARY TO ADAPT. 3438 02:15:38,600 --> 02:15:40,880 WHEN YOU LOOK AT POTATO 3439 02:15:40,880 --> 02:15:42,000 PRODUCTION IN THE UNITED STATES 3440 02:15:42,000 --> 02:15:47,800 IT'S STARTING TO GO DOWN. 3441 02:15:47,800 --> 02:15:49,400 MONO CULTURES DON'T HAVE 3442 02:15:49,400 --> 02:15:53,680 SUFFICIENT GENETIC DIVERSITY TO 3443 02:15:53,680 --> 02:15:55,760 ADAPT TO EXTREMES. 3444 02:15:55,760 --> 02:16:00,800 THIS IS SIMILAR, KANSAS WHEAT 3445 02:16:00,800 --> 02:16:01,120 PRODUCTION. 3446 02:16:01,120 --> 02:16:03,600 THIS IS BECOMING MORE ENDEMIC. 3447 02:16:03,600 --> 02:16:05,320 YOU CAN TYPE IN PARTICULAR 3448 02:16:05,320 --> 02:16:08,240 COMMODITY FOR A COUNTRY, APPLES 3449 02:16:08,240 --> 02:16:09,680 FOR WASHINGTON, COTTON FOR 3450 02:16:09,680 --> 02:16:11,360 TEXAS, WHATEVER, YOU'LL SEE 3451 02:16:11,360 --> 02:16:16,160 SIMILAR TYPE ARRANGEMENT. 3452 02:16:16,160 --> 02:16:19,760 YOU SEE THAT THERE'S A LOT OF 3453 02:16:19,760 --> 02:16:21,280 UPS AND DOWNS REFLECTING CHANGES 3454 02:16:21,280 --> 02:16:23,840 IN CLIMATE AND LACK OF GENETIC 3455 02:16:23,840 --> 02:16:24,880 DIVERSITY. 3456 02:16:24,880 --> 02:16:30,320 IN TERMS OF BIOTIC LIMITATIONS, 3457 02:16:30,320 --> 02:16:32,600 WEEDS, WITHIN THE U.S. 10% LOSS 3458 02:16:32,600 --> 02:16:34,880 OF PRODUCTION ASSOCIATED WITH 3459 02:16:34,880 --> 02:16:36,840 WEEDS, EVEN WITH HERBICIDE 3460 02:16:36,840 --> 02:16:37,720 APPLICATION THAT INCREASES TO 3461 02:16:37,720 --> 02:16:40,760 25% UNDER BEST MANAGEMENT 3462 02:16:40,760 --> 02:16:41,360 PRACTICE. 3463 02:16:41,360 --> 02:16:44,640 IF KNOW EFFORT IS MADE IT GOES 3464 02:16:44,640 --> 02:16:45,960 TO 100%. 3465 02:16:45,960 --> 02:16:48,800 WEEDS ARE PROBABLY THE GREATEST 3466 02:16:48,800 --> 02:16:49,800 BIOTIC CONSTRAINT TO CROP 3467 02:16:49,800 --> 02:16:51,560 PRODUCTION ESPECIALLY IN 3468 02:16:51,560 --> 02:16:52,480 DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, RECOGNIZED 3469 02:16:52,480 --> 02:16:55,360 GLOBALLY AS ONE OF THE PRIMARY 3470 02:16:55,360 --> 02:16:56,480 SOURCES OF HUMAN LABOR BECAUSE 3471 02:16:56,480 --> 02:16:59,440 IT TAKES A LOT OF HUMAN LABOR TO 3472 02:16:59,440 --> 02:16:59,880 CONTROL WEEDS. 3473 02:16:59,880 --> 02:17:03,720 SO, WHEN YOU LOOK AT CO2 IN 3474 02:17:03,720 --> 02:17:05,240 CONTEXT OF, WELL, HOW DOES THIS 3475 02:17:05,240 --> 02:17:07,760 IN TERN AFFECT OUR ABILITY TO 3476 02:17:07,760 --> 02:17:12,880 CONTROL PESTS, FOCUSING ON 3477 02:17:12,880 --> 02:17:14,400 HERBICIDE EFFICACY PARTICULARLY 3478 02:17:14,400 --> 02:17:17,520 FOR ROUNDUP, THIS WAS CANADA 3479 02:17:17,520 --> 02:17:19,680 THISTLE UNDER DIFFERENT CARBON 3480 02:17:19,680 --> 02:17:20,880 DIOXIDE CONCENTRATIONS, HERE 80% 3481 02:17:20,880 --> 02:17:21,200 CONTROL. 3482 02:17:21,200 --> 02:17:23,280 HERE WE USED RECOMMENDED DOSAGE 3483 02:17:23,280 --> 02:17:25,120 AND GOT ZERO CONTROL. 3484 02:17:25,120 --> 02:17:28,760 DIFFERENCE IS RELATED TO CARBON 3485 02:17:28,760 --> 02:17:30,280 DIOXIDE, ADDITIONAL GROWTH FOR 3486 02:17:30,280 --> 02:17:34,560 THE WEED MADE THE WEED HEARTER 3487 02:17:34,560 --> 02:17:35,960 TO MANAGE. 3488 02:17:35,960 --> 02:17:40,160 WHEN YOU LOOK AMOUNT BIOMASS 3489 02:17:40,160 --> 02:17:42,520 RELATED TO AMBIENT CO2, WE 3490 02:17:42,520 --> 02:17:45,360 DIDN'T SEE A BIG EFFECT ON 3491 02:17:45,360 --> 02:17:47,120 SHOOTS BUT WHAT WE DID SEE IS 3492 02:17:47,120 --> 02:17:49,760 BIG EFFECT WITH RESPECT TO ROOT 3493 02:17:49,760 --> 02:17:50,400 GROWTH. 3494 02:17:50,400 --> 02:17:52,720 THAT'S IMPORTANT BECAUSE WHEN 3495 02:17:52,720 --> 02:17:54,440 CO2 STIMULATES ROOTS OVER 3496 02:17:54,440 --> 02:17:56,840 LEAVES, ROOTS ARE CAPABLE OF 3497 02:17:56,840 --> 02:17:59,840 REGENERATING NEW PLANTS AND AS A 3498 02:17:59,840 --> 02:18:00,920 RESULT OF THIS DILUTION 3499 02:18:00,920 --> 02:18:03,120 BASICALLY WE WEREN'T ABLE TO 3500 02:18:03,120 --> 02:18:04,440 CONTROL THE WEED. 3501 02:18:04,440 --> 02:18:07,920 IS THIS THE MECHANISM FOR OTHER 3502 02:18:07,920 --> 02:18:10,560 REPORTS OF REDUCTION IN EFFICACY 3503 02:18:10,560 --> 02:18:12,120 WITH PESTICIDES OR HERBICIDES? 3504 02:18:12,120 --> 02:18:12,640 NOT SURE. 3505 02:18:12,640 --> 02:18:14,360 BUT IT'S CERTAINLY ONE OF THE 3506 02:18:14,360 --> 02:18:16,120 THINGS TO KEEP IN MIND. 3507 02:18:16,120 --> 02:18:19,200 THERE'S ALSO THE ISSUE OF CO2 3508 02:18:19,200 --> 02:18:20,320 REDUCING NUTRITIONAL CONTENT. 3509 02:18:20,320 --> 02:18:25,000 WE'VE SEEN THIS IN A NUMBER OF 3510 02:18:25,000 --> 02:18:25,320 CONTEXTS. 3511 02:18:25,320 --> 02:18:28,200 MATT IS THE WORLD EXPERT ON 3512 02:18:28,200 --> 02:18:28,480 THIS. 3513 02:18:28,480 --> 02:18:31,040 I'LL BRIEFLY TOUCH ON SOME WORK 3514 02:18:31,040 --> 02:18:32,160 THAT WAS DONE BY DANIEL LOOKING 3515 02:18:32,160 --> 02:18:37,520 AT ONE OF THE FIRST 3516 02:18:37,520 --> 02:18:42,440 META-ANALYSES FOR CROP STAPLES, 3517 02:18:42,440 --> 02:18:44,320 PERCENT CHANGE OF PROTEIN, ZERO 3518 02:18:44,320 --> 02:18:47,280 MEANS NO EFFECT, SOYBEAN IT WAS 3519 02:18:47,280 --> 02:18:49,760 A MINOR CHANGE BUT FOR MANY OF 3520 02:18:49,760 --> 02:18:52,400 THE STAPLES LIKE BARLEY, RICE, 3521 02:18:52,400 --> 02:18:54,040 WHEAT, IT WAS SIGNIFICANT. 3522 02:18:54,040 --> 02:18:58,200 AND THEN THIS IS FROM e-LIFE 3523 02:18:58,200 --> 02:19:00,280 ARTICLE, BASICALLY THE POINT IS 3524 02:19:00,280 --> 02:19:02,280 JUST TO SAY AS CARBON INCREASES 3525 02:19:02,280 --> 02:19:05,440 RAPIDLY IN THE ATMOSPHERE WE'LL 3526 02:19:05,440 --> 02:19:11,240 SEE THIS CHANGE IN TERMS OF 3527 02:19:11,240 --> 02:19:16,680 PLANT STOICHIOMETRY, SOIL BASED 3528 02:19:16,680 --> 02:19:18,680 NOT MAKING PACE, WE'RE SEEING 3529 02:19:18,680 --> 02:19:20,320 IMBALANCE OCCURRING ACROSS THE 3530 02:19:20,320 --> 02:19:23,040 RANGE OF DIFFERENT MACRO AND 3531 02:19:23,040 --> 02:19:25,240 MICRO NUTRIENTS. 3532 02:19:25,240 --> 02:19:29,160 SO, CO2 IS LIKELY TO IMPACT 3533 02:19:29,160 --> 02:19:29,560 GLOBAL NUTRITION. 3534 02:19:29,560 --> 02:19:31,400 CHANGE IN PROTEIN IS ONGOING. 3535 02:19:31,400 --> 02:19:34,560 THIS IS JUST SOME WORK LOOKING 3536 02:19:34,560 --> 02:19:37,400 AT RICE FOR THE CHANGE IN CO2 3537 02:19:37,400 --> 02:19:39,400 THAT'S ALREADY OCCURRED WHERE WE 3538 02:19:39,400 --> 02:19:44,600 HAD 7 OUT OF 8 RICE LINES FAIRLY 3539 02:19:44,600 --> 02:19:47,800 BROUGHT IN TERMS OF GENETICS 3540 02:19:47,800 --> 02:19:50,400 SHOWING SIGNIFICANT DECLINE IN 3541 02:19:50,400 --> 02:19:50,880 PROTEIN CONCENTRATION. 3542 02:19:50,880 --> 02:19:52,160 IT'S HAPPENING IN REAL TIME, NOT 3543 02:19:52,160 --> 02:19:54,320 SOMETHING THAT WILL HAPPEN IN 3544 02:19:54,320 --> 02:19:54,640 THE FUTURE. 3545 02:19:54,640 --> 02:19:58,600 FOOD SAFETY, WE'VE ALL HAD THAT 3546 02:19:58,600 --> 02:19:59,200 EXPERIENCE OF EATING 3547 02:19:59,200 --> 02:19:59,960 CONTAMINATED FOOD. 3548 02:19:59,960 --> 02:20:10,440 IT'S NOT PLEASANT, E. COLI, 3549 02:20:22,800 --> 02:20:24,800 CLOSTRIDIUM, SALMONELLA. 3550 02:20:24,800 --> 02:20:28,600 WHEN YOU LOOK AT OTHER ISSUES 3551 02:20:28,600 --> 02:20:36,760 RELATED TO FOOD SAFETY 3552 02:20:36,760 --> 02:20:39,400 MYCOTOXINS COME TO MIND, 3553 02:20:39,400 --> 02:20:41,000 AFLOTOXIN RECOGNIZED AS 3554 02:20:41,000 --> 02:20:42,120 CARCINOGEN, RIGHT NOW PRIMARILY 3555 02:20:42,120 --> 02:20:49,280 IN AFRICA BECAUSE OF THE CLIMATE 3556 02:20:49,280 --> 02:20:49,640 BUT OF 3557 02:20:49,640 --> 02:20:53,800 CLIMATE BUT WE ANTS ANTICIPATE 3558 02:20:53,800 --> 02:20:55,960 SOUTHERN EUROPE WILL BE AT RISK. 3559 02:20:55,960 --> 02:20:57,840 HURRICANE SANDY IN TERMS OF 3560 02:20:57,840 --> 02:20:58,600 INFRASTRUCTURE, ABILITY TO 3561 02:20:58,600 --> 02:21:06,080 ACCESS FOOD FOLLOWING MAJOR 3562 02:21:06,080 --> 02:21:07,160 EVENTS OR TYPHOON HAIYAN, BEING 3563 02:21:07,160 --> 02:21:09,760 ABLE TO GET HOLD OF ADEQUATE 3564 02:21:09,760 --> 02:21:13,960 FOOD, SAFE FOOD, AND WATER AFTER 3565 02:21:13,960 --> 02:21:17,000 THESE CATEGORY 4 OR 5 STORMS IS 3566 02:21:17,000 --> 02:21:19,320 SOMETHING THAT IS BECOMING MORE 3567 02:21:19,320 --> 02:21:20,720 EVIDENT ON PEOPLE'S RADAR. 3568 02:21:20,720 --> 02:21:22,840 SO, WHEN YOU LOOK AT CLIMATE 3569 02:21:22,840 --> 02:21:28,200 CHANGE AND CO2, IMPACT ON FOOD 3570 02:21:28,200 --> 02:21:31,920 SECURITY, PHYSICAL AND 3571 02:21:31,920 --> 02:21:33,320 BIOLOGICAL THREATS, NUTRITIONAL 3572 02:21:33,320 --> 02:21:35,520 CHANGES, THESE ARE ALL IMPORTANT 3573 02:21:35,520 --> 02:21:38,040 IN TERMS OF LOOKING AT HOW 3574 02:21:38,040 --> 02:21:41,760 CLIMATE CHANGE AND CO2 IMPOSES 3575 02:21:41,760 --> 02:21:43,400 EFFECT ON THIS ISSUE. 3576 02:21:43,400 --> 02:21:44,720 SO THERE ARE CHOICES. 3577 02:21:44,720 --> 02:21:46,080 A LOT OF CHOICES IN TERMS OF 3578 02:21:46,080 --> 02:21:47,360 LOOKING AT HOW TO DEAL WITH 3579 02:21:47,360 --> 02:21:47,880 THIS. 3580 02:21:47,880 --> 02:21:50,720 I WON'T GO THROUGH ALL OF THESE. 3581 02:21:50,720 --> 02:21:55,840 BRIEFLY I'LL MENTION SOME OFF 3582 02:21:55,840 --> 02:21:57,600 THE OFF 3583 02:21:57,600 --> 02:22:01,000 THE SHELF STUFF, SOLAR PANELS, 3584 02:22:01,000 --> 02:22:01,880 IMPROVING EFFICACY USING HUMAN 3585 02:22:01,880 --> 02:22:04,320 WASTE AS A MEANS TO IMPROVE SOIL 3586 02:22:04,320 --> 02:22:07,360 HEALTH AFTER IT'S BEEN PROPERLY 3587 02:22:07,360 --> 02:22:08,880 TREATED, CHANGES IN WATER 3588 02:22:08,880 --> 02:22:13,040 CONTENT, CHANGES IN CELL PHONE 3589 02:22:13,040 --> 02:22:14,040 ACCESS, CHANGES IN 3590 02:22:14,040 --> 02:22:15,960 INFRASTRUCTURE, DO IT YOURSELF 3591 02:22:15,960 --> 02:22:18,320 CHANGES, CONVERTING URINE INTO 3592 02:22:18,320 --> 02:22:19,600 FERTILIZER, CHANGES IN CELL 3593 02:22:19,600 --> 02:22:21,400 PHONES, SO FORTH AND SO ON. 3594 02:22:21,400 --> 02:22:24,080 CHANGES IN FOOD WASTE, HOW WE 3595 02:22:24,080 --> 02:22:25,840 APPROACH IT. 3596 02:22:25,840 --> 02:22:26,960 LOOKING AT FOOD RECOVERY, NOT 3597 02:22:26,960 --> 02:22:31,040 JUST AS WE THROW IT AWAY BUT HOW 3598 02:22:31,040 --> 02:22:33,480 DO WE BEGIN TO SORT OF 3599 02:22:33,480 --> 02:22:34,640 CATEGORIZE IT IN TERMS OF, YOU 3600 02:22:34,640 --> 02:22:38,720 KNOW, HOW CAN IT BE USED TO FEED 3601 02:22:38,720 --> 02:22:43,120 HUNGRY PEOPLE, TO PROVIDE FOOD 3602 02:22:43,120 --> 02:22:44,560 BANKS, ANIMALS, WHAT NEEDS TO BE 3603 02:22:44,560 --> 02:22:46,960 DONE WITH POLICY CHANGES AND 3604 02:22:46,960 --> 02:22:48,960 THOSE CIRCUMSTANCES. 3605 02:22:48,960 --> 02:22:51,080 CORN AS ETHANOL, ALSO A BIG 3606 02:22:51,080 --> 02:22:52,200 CHANGE AS WELL. 3607 02:22:52,200 --> 02:22:53,880 THIS NEEDS TO BE ADDRESSED 3608 02:22:53,880 --> 02:22:57,200 BECAUSE CORN IS NOT THE BEST 3609 02:22:57,200 --> 02:22:57,960 BIOFUEL. 3610 02:22:57,960 --> 02:23:01,440 IN FACT, THE BEST BIOFUEL IS 3611 02:23:01,440 --> 02:23:01,760 SWEET POTATO. 3612 02:23:01,760 --> 02:23:06,560 IF YOU LOOK AT IT IN TERMS OF 3613 02:23:06,560 --> 02:23:09,240 ITS COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS, I 3614 02:23:09,240 --> 02:23:11,240 WILL POINT OUT THAT THE ANALYSIS 3615 02:23:11,240 --> 02:23:13,280 WE DID WE WERE ABLE TO GET 3616 02:23:13,280 --> 02:23:17,640 ALMOST THREE TIMES THE AMOUNT, 3617 02:23:17,640 --> 02:23:19,360 AT LEAST TWICE THE AMOUNT. 3618 02:23:19,360 --> 02:23:22,360 THE REASON WHY IS THAT SWEET 3619 02:23:22,360 --> 02:23:23,840 POTATO IS NOT NORMALLY GROWN THE 3620 02:23:23,840 --> 02:23:28,120 WAY WE WOULD GROW IT FOR FUEL. 3621 02:23:28,120 --> 02:23:30,640 THAT'S HOW YOU GROW INDUSTRIAL 3622 02:23:30,640 --> 02:23:31,240 SWEET POTATOES. 3623 02:23:31,240 --> 02:23:34,800 YOU WOULD NOT BE ABLE TO EAT 3624 02:23:34,800 --> 02:23:36,560 THAT IN A SINGLE SITTING BUT 3625 02:23:36,560 --> 02:23:38,760 IT'S GOOD IN TERMS OF LOOKING AT 3626 02:23:38,760 --> 02:23:43,480 IT AS A POTENTIAL CROP OR 3627 02:23:43,480 --> 02:23:46,240 REPLACEMENT FOR BIOFUELS. 3628 02:23:46,240 --> 02:23:47,400 POLY CULTURE, GROWING DIFFERENT 3629 02:23:47,400 --> 02:23:52,200 THINGS, RICE AND CORN. 3630 02:23:52,200 --> 02:23:59,760 SORRY, RICE AND DUCKS TOGETHER, 3631 02:23:59,760 --> 02:24:01,280 SELECTING FOR GREATER YIELD 3632 02:24:01,280 --> 02:24:07,080 RESPONSES, HERE SHOWING CLEAR 3633 02:24:07,080 --> 02:24:09,600 FIELD IN STUTTGART, CDO FOR CO2 3634 02:24:09,600 --> 02:24:12,280 THAT'S ALREADY OCCURRED SHOWING 3635 02:24:12,280 --> 02:24:14,880 THAT STUTTGART DOES MUCH BETTER. 3636 02:24:14,880 --> 02:24:16,440 THERE'S NO EVIDENCE BREEDERS 3637 02:24:16,440 --> 02:24:18,600 HAVE SELECTED FOR CO2 AS 3638 02:24:18,600 --> 02:24:19,680 ADDITIONAL RESOURCE, OBVIOUSLY 3639 02:24:19,680 --> 02:24:22,560 AN OPPORTUNITY TO BEGIN TO LOOK 3640 02:24:22,560 --> 02:24:23,400 AT THIS. 3641 02:24:23,400 --> 02:24:27,160 MORE WORK WITH THE WEEDY RICE, 3642 02:24:27,160 --> 02:24:29,120 LOOKING AT DIVERSITY AND THAT 3643 02:24:29,120 --> 02:24:30,080 USING THAT DIVERSITY, GENETIC 3644 02:24:30,080 --> 02:24:33,040 DIVERSITY AS A MEANS TO BEGIN TO 3645 02:24:33,040 --> 02:24:35,640 ADAPT TO ALL THE DIFFERENT 3646 02:24:35,640 --> 02:24:41,800 TEMPERATURES AND CO2, HERE ALONG 3647 02:24:41,800 --> 02:24:42,640 THE X-AXIS AND TEMPERATURES, 3648 02:24:42,640 --> 02:24:47,000 HERE DOING THE SAME THING BUT 3649 02:24:47,000 --> 02:24:49,680 HIGH TEMPERATURE, 37 DEGREES AT 3650 02:24:49,680 --> 02:24:51,640 FLOURING, TALKED ABOUT THE 3651 02:24:51,640 --> 02:24:53,080 FLORAL STERILITY, DIDN'T SEE 3652 02:24:53,080 --> 02:24:56,240 THAT FOR WEEDY LINES, USING 3653 02:24:56,240 --> 02:24:57,440 GENETICS TO ADAPT AND TRYING TO 3654 02:24:57,440 --> 02:24:59,760 GET BEYOND THE SORT OF MONO 3655 02:24:59,760 --> 02:25:02,240 CULTURE TYPE FRAMEWORK THAT WE 3656 02:25:02,240 --> 02:25:03,800 CURRENTLY HAVE IN PLACE. 3657 02:25:03,800 --> 02:25:05,320 I'LL POINT OUT SOME THINGS 3658 02:25:05,320 --> 02:25:07,600 HAPPENING IN POTATO FIELDS IN 3659 02:25:07,600 --> 02:25:07,960 PERU. 3660 02:25:07,960 --> 02:25:09,680 THEY GROW POTATOES DIFFERENTLY. 3661 02:25:09,680 --> 02:25:12,000 THEY PLANT WEEDS ALONG THE EDGES 3662 02:25:12,000 --> 02:25:13,720 WHEN THEY GROW POTATOES AND LOOK 3663 02:25:13,720 --> 02:25:16,920 AT THE END OF THE SEASON FOR 3664 02:25:16,920 --> 02:25:18,240 INTERCOMPARISONS, SOME WEEDING 3665 02:25:18,240 --> 02:25:23,160 POTATOES WILL CROSS WITH 3666 02:25:23,160 --> 02:25:24,320 DOMESTICATED, ANALYZED TO 3667 02:25:24,320 --> 02:25:26,320 DETERMINE BENEFITS AND 3668 02:25:26,320 --> 02:25:29,160 DETRIMENTS AMONG NEW LINES 3669 02:25:29,160 --> 02:25:31,280 FORMED, BECAUSE IN PERU THE 3670 02:25:31,280 --> 02:25:32,760 CONDITIONS CHANGE SO FREQUENTLY. 3671 02:25:32,760 --> 02:25:35,240 BUT THIS APPROACH IS SOMETHING 3672 02:25:35,240 --> 02:25:39,440 THAT I THINK WOULD BE 3673 02:25:39,440 --> 02:25:40,440 POTENTIALLY A MEANS PARADIGM 3674 02:25:40,440 --> 02:25:44,400 GOING FORWARD, BEGIN TO ANALYZE. 3675 02:25:44,400 --> 02:25:45,400 OF COURSE, POTATO PRODUCTION 3676 02:25:45,400 --> 02:25:46,760 DOESN'T SHOW UPS AND DOWNS WE DO 3677 02:25:46,760 --> 02:25:55,080 HERE IN THE UNITED STATES. 3678 02:25:55,080 --> 02:25:58,720 SO, GMOs, SEED SAVERS, MINI 3679 02:25:58,720 --> 02:26:04,240 HABERS ARE IMPORTANT, IN THE 3680 02:26:04,240 --> 02:26:06,280 RAINBOWS AND UNICORN CATEGORY. 3681 02:26:06,280 --> 02:26:16,440 WE NEED TO SAVE SEEDS, THE NEED 3682 02:26:16,440 --> 02:26:18,440 IS SELF-EVIDENT. 3683 02:26:18,440 --> 02:26:21,000 THINKING ABOUT INDUSTRIALIZATION 3684 02:26:21,000 --> 02:26:22,920 PROCESS OF CONVERTING NITROGEN 3685 02:26:22,920 --> 02:26:24,280 GAS TO FERTILIZER IS SOMETHING 3686 02:26:24,280 --> 02:26:30,480 THAT NEEDS TO BE REASSESSED AND 3687 02:26:30,480 --> 02:26:31,920 PERHAPS MINIATURIZED, BIO-CHAR 3688 02:26:31,920 --> 02:26:36,200 HAS HAD SOME SUCCESS ADDING HIGH 3689 02:26:36,200 --> 02:26:37,840 BAR CARBON SOURCE TO SOIL AND 3690 02:26:37,840 --> 02:26:40,640 SEEING WHAT HAPPENS. 3691 02:26:40,640 --> 02:26:41,000 IT'S EXPENSIVE. 3692 02:26:41,000 --> 02:26:43,320 IT'S $2,500 A TON AS OPPOSED TO 3693 02:26:43,320 --> 02:26:47,800 COAL WHICH TURNS OUT IS IN FACT 3694 02:26:47,800 --> 02:26:50,840 ALSO KIND OF LIKE CHARCOAL, A 3695 02:26:50,840 --> 02:26:52,400 SOURCE OF CARBON THAT COULD BE 3696 02:26:52,400 --> 02:26:54,680 ADDED TO THE SOIL BUT OF COURSE 3697 02:26:54,680 --> 02:27:01,280 IT HAS ITS OWN PREJUDICE AGAINST 3698 02:27:01,280 --> 02:27:05,200 USING COAL IN THE LONG TERM. 3699 02:27:05,200 --> 02:27:07,520 I OF PRECISION FERMENTATION HAS 3700 02:27:07,520 --> 02:27:14,040 GOTTEN A LOT OF ATTENTION USING 3701 02:27:14,040 --> 02:27:16,920 MICROBES FOR GENETIC 3702 02:27:16,920 --> 02:27:19,320 ENGINEERING, PROTEINS FOR MILK, 3703 02:27:19,320 --> 02:27:19,640 BEER. 3704 02:27:19,640 --> 02:27:24,640 HERE IS REMILK, A NEW INDUSTRY, 3705 02:27:24,640 --> 02:27:25,360 PRECISION FERMENTATION, 3706 02:27:25,360 --> 02:27:29,960 PRODUCING SAME PRODUCTS IN ONE 3707 02:27:29,960 --> 02:27:31,000 FACTORY, 50,000 COWS. 3708 02:27:31,000 --> 02:27:33,080 IF THIS COMES TO PASS NEW 3709 02:27:33,080 --> 02:27:35,280 FACTORY JUST OPENED IN DENMARK, 3710 02:27:35,280 --> 02:27:37,840 WHAT DOES IT MEAN IN TERMS OF 3711 02:27:37,840 --> 02:27:40,200 DAIRY INDUSTRY IN EUROPE AND 3712 02:27:40,200 --> 02:27:40,640 U.S.? 3713 02:27:40,640 --> 02:27:45,240 A WAIT AND SEE BUT CERTAINLY IN 3714 02:27:45,240 --> 02:27:48,200 TERMS OF ITS POTENTIAL IS REALLY 3715 02:27:48,200 --> 02:27:48,880 REMARKABLE. 3716 02:27:48,880 --> 02:27:50,160 RETHINKING PEST MANAGEMENT, 3717 02:27:50,160 --> 02:27:51,480 TRYING TO KEEP TRACK THROUGH 3718 02:27:51,480 --> 02:27:54,640 CELL PHONES OF WHAT'S HAPPENING 3719 02:27:54,640 --> 02:27:55,040 GLOBALLY. 3720 02:27:55,040 --> 02:28:00,000 BEING ABLE TO KEEP TRACK OF 3721 02:28:00,000 --> 02:28:04,200 PERTHINEUM IS ONE APPROACH ON A 3722 02:28:04,200 --> 02:28:07,880 GLOBAL BASIS, USING IPM, NEW 3723 02:28:07,880 --> 02:28:09,640 METHODS SUCH AS DRONES AND EVEN 3724 02:28:09,640 --> 02:28:10,720 KILLER WEED ROBOTS WHERE YOU 3725 02:28:10,720 --> 02:28:12,920 DON'T HAVE TO USE PESTICIDES. 3726 02:28:12,920 --> 02:28:19,600 WE'RE TRYING TO PUT TOGETHER THE 3727 02:28:19,600 --> 02:28:20,640 FACT ALLIANCE, DIFFERENT GROUPS 3728 02:28:20,640 --> 02:28:23,960 ARE JOINING AS A MEANS TO BEGIN 3729 02:28:23,960 --> 02:28:27,400 ASSIMILATING OUR DISCIPLINES SO 3730 02:28:27,400 --> 02:28:28,760 IT'S NOT A ONE-SIZE-FITS-ALL 3731 02:28:28,760 --> 02:28:29,920 APPROACH, WE THINK CHALLENGES IN 3732 02:28:29,920 --> 02:28:32,320 CLIMATE ARE SUCH THAT IT'S NOT A 3733 02:28:32,320 --> 02:28:33,960 ONE UNIVERSITY THAT WILL BE ABLE 3734 02:28:33,960 --> 02:28:36,280 TO ADDRESS THOSE, WE WANT TO PUT 3735 02:28:36,280 --> 02:28:38,000 TOGETHER A YELLOW PAGES FOR 3736 02:28:38,000 --> 02:28:40,680 DIFFERENT FOLKS TO CONTACT THE 3737 02:28:40,680 --> 02:28:43,480 FACT ALLIANCE AND BEGIN TO THEN 3738 02:28:43,480 --> 02:28:45,800 ASSESS THEIR PROBLEMS BUT THEN 3739 02:28:45,800 --> 02:28:50,200 COME INTO OR LINK TO THOSE 3740 02:28:50,200 --> 02:28:51,520 ACADEMICS THAT ARE EXPERTS IN 3741 02:28:51,520 --> 02:28:52,360 THEIR FIELD. 3742 02:28:52,360 --> 02:28:54,560 THESE ARE SOME JOINERS WE'VE 3743 02:28:54,560 --> 02:28:55,560 GOTTEN SO FAR. 3744 02:28:55,560 --> 02:28:58,280 RESEARCH IN TERMS OF SHARING 3745 02:28:58,280 --> 02:29:01,880 RESEARCH, LOOK FOR WIN-WIN 3746 02:29:01,880 --> 02:29:11,080 COMMONALITIES, GLOBAL SCIENCE 3747 02:29:11,080 --> 02:29:14,280 PLATFORMS, GERM PLASM, EDUCATION 3748 02:29:14,280 --> 02:29:15,240 FOR AGRONOMIC MEANS, INVESTING 3749 02:29:15,240 --> 02:29:17,080 IN PUBLIC RESEARCH TO SUSTAIN 3750 02:29:17,080 --> 02:29:18,200 AND IMPROVE AGRICULTURE, ALL 3751 02:29:18,200 --> 02:29:19,920 THESE ARE IMPORTANT AND JUST TO 3752 02:29:19,920 --> 02:29:22,720 GIVE YOU SOME SENSE OF WHAT'S 3753 02:29:22,720 --> 02:29:23,880 HANG HERE, THE DEPARTMENT OF 3754 02:29:23,880 --> 02:29:25,560 DEFENSE IS SHOWN ON THE LEFT, 3755 02:29:25,560 --> 02:29:29,160 THAT'S LOOKING AT RESEARCH AND 3756 02:29:29,160 --> 02:29:29,360 DEVELOP. 3757 02:29:29,360 --> 02:29:31,560 MILLIONS OF DOLLARS. 3758 02:29:31,560 --> 02:29:34,080 AG DEPARTMENT, NIH, ALSO SHOWN. 3759 02:29:34,080 --> 02:29:35,160 THE AG DEPARTMENT IS TINY 3760 02:29:35,160 --> 02:29:38,280 COMPARED TO WHAT IS HAPPENING 3761 02:29:38,280 --> 02:29:40,040 WITH RESPECT TO DoD. 3762 02:29:40,040 --> 02:29:43,400 SO GETTING THE MESSAGE OUT, 3763 02:29:43,400 --> 02:29:45,800 TALKING TO POLICYMAKERS, 3764 02:29:45,800 --> 02:29:48,240 UNDERSTANDING SCIENCE VERSUS 3765 02:29:48,240 --> 02:29:50,000 GOVERNMENT, DIFFERENCES THERE, 3766 02:29:50,000 --> 02:29:51,600 ABILITY TO COMMUNICATE, FARM 3767 02:29:51,600 --> 02:29:54,680 BILL AND CLIMATE, INCREASED 3768 02:29:54,680 --> 02:29:57,840 PRODUCTIVITY, ENHANCED 3769 02:29:57,840 --> 02:29:59,560 RESILIENCE, REDUCED EMISSIONS. 3770 02:29:59,560 --> 02:30:02,640 PART OF WHAT'S CALLED SMART 3771 02:30:02,640 --> 02:30:03,320 AGRICULTURE, CLIMATE SMART 3772 02:30:03,320 --> 02:30:04,840 AGRICULTURE, BUT UNFORTUNATELY 3773 02:30:04,840 --> 02:30:07,240 THERE'S BEEN A LOT OF NEW FUNDS 3774 02:30:07,240 --> 02:30:08,560 MADE AVAILABLE, AREN'T 3775 02:30:08,560 --> 02:30:09,560 NECESSARILY GOING TO FARMERS, 3776 02:30:09,560 --> 02:30:11,720 AND WHEN YOU START LOOKING AT 3777 02:30:11,720 --> 02:30:14,480 WHAT NEEDS TO HAPPEN IN TERMS OF 3778 02:30:14,480 --> 02:30:15,560 MONITORING AND MEASURING 3779 02:30:15,560 --> 02:30:16,840 GREENHOUSE GASES IT'S SOMETHING 3780 02:30:16,840 --> 02:30:19,640 WE ALSO NEED TO DO. 3781 02:30:19,640 --> 02:30:21,480 I'LL WRAP UP THERE, FINISH BY 3782 02:30:21,480 --> 02:30:23,000 SAYING THAT FOOD SECURITY 3783 02:30:23,000 --> 02:30:25,120 PRODUCTION QUALITY AND SAFETY 3784 02:30:25,120 --> 02:30:27,000 ARE ALL IMPACTED BY CLIMATE 3785 02:30:27,000 --> 02:30:31,400 CHANGE, SPECIFICALLY RISE IN CO2 3786 02:30:31,400 --> 02:30:34,120 AND TEMPERATURE, BUT MANY MEANS, 3787 02:30:34,120 --> 02:30:35,320 SCIENTIFIC, ECONOMIC, SOCIAL, 3788 02:30:35,320 --> 02:30:37,720 EVEN RAINBOW MEANS TO MINIMIZE 3789 02:30:37,720 --> 02:30:39,600 THIS IMPACT BUT TO SUSTAIN AND 3790 02:30:39,600 --> 02:30:42,320 IT'S JUST A QUESTION OF MOVING 3791 02:30:42,320 --> 02:30:42,760 FORWARD. 3792 02:30:42,760 --> 02:30:43,400 I'LL STOP THERE. 3793 02:30:43,400 --> 02:30:52,480 I THINK WE'RE GOING SEGUE INTO 3794 02:30:52,480 --> 02:30:52,920 QUESTIONS. 3795 02:30:52,920 --> 02:30:54,360 >> THANKS, LEW. 3796 02:30:54,360 --> 02:30:56,680 WE HAVE ONE LAST SET HERE WHICH 3797 02:30:56,680 --> 02:30:58,440 WE WANTED TO TALK THROUGH BEFORE 3798 02:30:58,440 --> 02:31:00,920 WE OPEN BACK UP TO QUESTIONS. 3799 02:31:00,920 --> 02:31:03,440 THIS IS ONLY GOING TO TAKE ABOUT 3800 02:31:03,440 --> 02:31:06,720 TWO MINUTES BECAUSE WE'RE A 3801 02:31:06,720 --> 02:31:07,560 LITTLE BIT BEHIND, THROUGH MY 3802 02:31:07,560 --> 02:31:08,480 OWN FAULT. 3803 02:31:08,480 --> 02:31:11,080 THIS IS OUR FRAMEWORK FOR 3804 02:31:11,080 --> 02:31:12,360 THINKING ABOUT INTERVENTIONS. 3805 02:31:12,360 --> 02:31:15,600 AND HOW WE CHARACTERIZE THOSE. 3806 02:31:15,600 --> 02:31:16,480 DISCLOSURES BUT THIS IS WHAT I 3807 02:31:16,480 --> 02:31:18,240 WANT TO FOCUS ON. 3808 02:31:18,240 --> 02:31:20,000 OUR TEAM IS THINKING ABOUT 3809 02:31:20,000 --> 02:31:21,000 CHARACTERIZING POTENTIAL CHOICES 3810 02:31:21,000 --> 02:31:26,880 OR INTERVENTIONS UNDER THE GUISE 3811 02:31:26,880 --> 02:31:27,760 OF NORMATIVE FRAMEWORK PROPOSED 3812 02:31:27,760 --> 02:31:31,240 IN THE U.N. FOOD SUMMIT 3813 02:31:31,240 --> 02:31:32,320 DISCUSSIONS IN 2021. 3814 02:31:32,320 --> 02:31:34,520 THE IDEA HERE IS THAT THERE'S 3815 02:31:34,520 --> 02:31:35,960 TWO STRATEGIES THROUGH WHICH WE 3816 02:31:35,960 --> 02:31:36,960 CAN VIEW FOOD SYSTEMS. 3817 02:31:36,960 --> 02:31:39,560 ONE IS TO LOOK AT SYSTEMS AS 3818 02:31:39,560 --> 02:31:40,640 THEY CURRENTLY ARE, IDENTIFY 3819 02:31:40,640 --> 02:31:42,520 WHERE WE CAN INTRODUCE DESIRABLE 3820 02:31:42,520 --> 02:31:43,680 CHANGE. 3821 02:31:43,680 --> 02:31:46,880 THE OTHER IS WE CAN POSTULATE 3822 02:31:46,880 --> 02:31:48,840 WHAT IDEAL SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE AND 3823 02:31:48,840 --> 02:31:52,600 SHAPE SYSTEMS TO SERVE THOSE 3824 02:31:52,600 --> 02:31:53,640 OBJECTIVES. 3825 02:31:53,640 --> 02:31:55,400 BOTH HAVE SOME OPPORTUNITIES AND 3826 02:31:55,400 --> 02:31:57,600 LIMITATIONS BUT ALSO GIVE US A 3827 02:31:57,600 --> 02:32:00,880 LENS THROUGH WHICH WE CAN THINK 3828 02:32:00,880 --> 02:32:01,800 ABOUT POTENTIAL INTERVENTIONS. 3829 02:32:01,800 --> 02:32:06,120 TO THINK ABOUT THINGS LIKE 3830 02:32:06,120 --> 02:32:07,000 FORTIFICATION, SUPPLEMENTATION, 3831 02:32:07,000 --> 02:32:07,800 MANAGEMENT PRACTICES, GENETICS, 3832 02:32:07,800 --> 02:32:10,120 THESE ARE THINGS THAT PROBABLY 3833 02:32:10,120 --> 02:32:12,240 FALL UNDER THIS POSITIVE 3834 02:32:12,240 --> 02:32:14,880 FRAMEWORK, FOR FOOD SYSTEM 3835 02:32:14,880 --> 02:32:15,840 INTERVENTIONS AND UNDER 3836 02:32:15,840 --> 02:32:18,280 NORMATIVE FRAMEWORK THINGS LIKE 3837 02:32:18,280 --> 02:32:19,680 SHIFTING OUR PRODUCTION 3838 02:32:19,680 --> 02:32:22,400 PATTERNS, SHIFTING DIETS OR FOOD 3839 02:32:22,400 --> 02:32:25,160 DEMAND, GENERATION OF NEW FOODS, 3840 02:32:25,160 --> 02:32:28,640 AND GENERATION OF NEW FOOD 3841 02:32:28,640 --> 02:32:29,400 SYSTEMS. 3842 02:32:29,400 --> 02:32:31,040 IN FACT SOME CONTROLLED 3843 02:32:31,040 --> 02:32:32,480 ENVIRONMENT AGRICULTURE, SOME 3844 02:32:32,480 --> 02:32:35,680 EXAMPLES OF WHAT WE MEAN. 3845 02:32:35,680 --> 02:32:39,720 WHAT OUR TEAM IS HOPING TO DO IS 3846 02:32:39,720 --> 02:32:40,920 CONTEXTUALIZE CHOICES WE'VE 3847 02:32:40,920 --> 02:32:42,560 TALKED ABOUT, UNDER THE CONTEXT 3848 02:32:42,560 --> 02:32:46,720 OF POSITIVE AND NORMATIVE 3849 02:32:46,720 --> 02:32:47,800 FRAMEWORKS, AND SORT OUT 3850 02:32:47,800 --> 02:32:50,440 INTERSECTION OF THE TWO WAYS OF 3851 02:32:50,440 --> 02:32:52,840 THINKING TO HELP FURTHER 3852 02:32:52,840 --> 02:32:53,960 IDENTIFY GAPS IN OPPORTUNITIES, 3853 02:32:53,960 --> 02:32:59,280 WHAT WE NEED TO KNOW MORE ABOUT 3854 02:32:59,280 --> 02:33:02,240 AS WE POSTULATE OUR ABILITY TO 3855 02:33:02,240 --> 02:33:03,440 ADAPT TO CLIMATE CHANGE. 3856 02:33:03,440 --> 02:33:08,080 WE'LL GO AHEAD AND OPEN UP FOR 3857 02:33:08,080 --> 02:33:09,240 OUR FINAL DISCUSSION SESSION. 3858 02:33:09,240 --> 02:33:11,640 PLEASE FEEL FREE TO RAISE YOUR 3859 02:33:11,640 --> 02:33:13,920 HAND, UNMUTE AND ASK THOSE 3860 02:33:13,920 --> 02:33:15,360 DIRECTLY, OR WE'RE HAPPY TO TAKE 3861 02:33:15,360 --> 02:33:16,480 THOSE QUESTIONS THROUGH THE 3862 02:33:16,480 --> 02:33:18,920 CHAT. 3863 02:33:18,920 --> 02:33:20,440 3864 02:33:20,440 --> 02:33:21,640 IS THERE ANYBODY THAT WOULD LIKE 3865 02:33:21,640 --> 02:33:32,120 TO START US OFF? 3866 02:33:32,120 --> 02:33:39,680 GO AHEAD, DAN. 3867 02:33:39,680 --> 02:33:41,760 >> THANK YOU. 3868 02:33:41,760 --> 02:33:46,040 TREMENDOUS SET OF PRESENTATIONS. 3869 02:33:46,040 --> 02:33:48,440 SPOT ON, I THINK, MAKING 3870 02:33:48,440 --> 02:33:49,520 TREMENDOUS PROGRESS. 3871 02:33:49,520 --> 02:33:53,160 I HAVE A SPECIFIC QUESTION FOR 3872 02:33:53,160 --> 02:33:56,760 LEW. 3873 02:33:56,760 --> 02:33:58,680 I MAY HAVE ASKED IN THE PAST BUT 3874 02:33:58,680 --> 02:34:03,200 STILL DON'T HAVE A GOOD ANSWER. 3875 02:34:03,200 --> 02:34:04,000 TALKING ABOUT INTERVENTIONS, 3876 02:34:04,000 --> 02:34:09,760 LOTS OF DRIVERS, HOW WE MAKE 3877 02:34:09,760 --> 02:34:12,160 CHOICES, SPECIFIC REGARD TO FOOD 3878 02:34:12,160 --> 02:34:13,440 FORTIFICATION AND EXPECTATIONS 3879 02:34:13,440 --> 02:34:16,560 WITH REGARD TO THE ABILITY OF 3880 02:34:16,560 --> 02:34:19,080 FORTIFIED FOOD SUPPLY TO ADDRESS 3881 02:34:19,080 --> 02:34:22,480 GLOBAL MICRONUTRIENT NEEDS, ARE 3882 02:34:22,480 --> 02:34:25,440 THERE DATA THAT INDICATE THAT 3883 02:34:25,440 --> 02:34:28,280 EFFORTS LIKE HARVEST PLUS AND 3884 02:34:28,280 --> 02:34:31,320 OTHERS DOING BIOFORTIFICATION OF 3885 02:34:31,320 --> 02:34:33,840 FOODS ARE ADDRESSING THIS 3886 02:34:33,840 --> 02:34:35,960 INTERSECTION, ARE WE ABLE TO 3887 02:34:35,960 --> 02:34:37,560 MEET OUR EXPECTATIONS WITH 3888 02:34:37,560 --> 02:34:42,600 REGARD TO FORTIFIED FOODS AND 3889 02:34:42,600 --> 02:34:45,280 ADDRESSING THINGS LIKE 3890 02:34:45,280 --> 02:34:45,960 MICRONUTRIENT DEFICIENCY? 3891 02:34:45,960 --> 02:34:47,280 >> I THINK IT'S A GOOD 3892 02:34:47,280 --> 02:34:47,960 QUESTION, DAN. 3893 02:34:47,960 --> 02:34:48,600 THANK YOU. 3894 02:34:48,600 --> 02:34:51,320 WHAT LOOMS OVER THAT IS SORT OF 3895 02:34:51,320 --> 02:34:56,080 ECONOMIC INCENTIVE TO MOVE 3896 02:34:56,080 --> 02:34:56,720 FORWARD. 3897 02:34:56,720 --> 02:34:58,680 RIGHT NOW THERE'S NO INCENTIVE 3898 02:34:58,680 --> 02:35:08,000 FOR A FARMER TO GROW A CROP WITH 3899 02:35:08,000 --> 02:35:10,400 HIGHER LEVEL OF PROTEIN OR IRON. 3900 02:35:10,400 --> 02:35:11,040 UNTIL THAT INCENTIVE BECOMES 3901 02:35:11,040 --> 02:35:15,040 PART OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH 3902 02:35:15,040 --> 02:35:16,280 POLICY CHANGES OR PRESSURE FROM 3903 02:35:16,280 --> 02:35:17,920 DIFFERENT GROUPS OR FROM THE 3904 02:35:17,920 --> 02:35:20,160 PUBLIC AS A WHOLE, I DON'T SEE 3905 02:35:20,160 --> 02:35:21,560 MUCH CHANGING IN THAT REGARD. 3906 02:35:21,560 --> 02:35:24,080 WITH RESPECT TO EFFORTS THAT ARE 3907 02:35:24,080 --> 02:35:27,840 CURRENTLY UNDERWAY, WITH RESPECT 3908 02:35:27,840 --> 02:35:30,240 TO BIOFORTIFICATION OR GENETIC 3909 02:35:30,240 --> 02:35:31,120 SELECTION, OR GMOs, THERE'S A 3910 02:35:31,120 --> 02:35:33,000 LOT OF OPPORTUNITY TO ADDRESS 3911 02:35:33,000 --> 02:35:40,000 THAT BUT RIGHT NOW THERE'S NO 3912 02:35:40,000 --> 02:35:42,400 ONE-SIZE-FITS-ALL APPROACH GOING 3913 02:35:42,400 --> 02:35:43,720 FORWARD. 3914 02:35:43,720 --> 02:35:46,160 >> THE CURRENT INFERENCE WE 3915 02:35:46,160 --> 02:35:50,160 HAVE, CURRENT ENTERPRISE ONGOING 3916 02:35:50,160 --> 02:35:52,480 TO ADDRESS MICRONUTRIENT 3917 02:35:52,480 --> 02:35:53,280 INSUFFICIENCY GLOBALLY, WE DON'T 3918 02:35:53,280 --> 02:35:56,480 REALLY KNOW WHETHER OR NOT WE'RE 3919 02:35:56,480 --> 02:35:57,240 MEETING THOSE EXPECTATIONS? 3920 02:35:57,240 --> 02:35:57,640 >> CORRECT. 3921 02:35:57,640 --> 02:36:01,080 RIGHT NOW IF YOU LOOKED ONLY AT 3922 02:36:01,080 --> 02:36:03,560 CARBON DIOXIDE EFFECTS PER SE IN 3923 02:36:03,560 --> 02:36:05,400 TERMS OF MICRONUTRIENTS, 3924 02:36:05,400 --> 02:36:06,160 PARTICULARLY IRON AND ZINC, 3925 02:36:06,160 --> 02:36:08,360 WE'RE GOING TO FALL BELOW WHAT'S 3926 02:36:08,360 --> 02:36:12,200 NEEDED FROM A DIETARY 3927 02:36:12,200 --> 02:36:15,720 NUTRITIONAL POINT OF VIEW. 3928 02:36:15,720 --> 02:36:20,440 >> NANCY, ARE YOU STILL THERE? 3929 02:36:20,440 --> 02:36:20,680 >> YES. 3930 02:36:20,680 --> 02:36:23,280 >> ANY THOUGHTS? 3931 02:36:23,280 --> 02:36:25,880 >> WELL, I THINK THAT'S JUST A 3932 02:36:25,880 --> 02:36:27,320 REALLY KEY QUESTION CAN WE MAKE 3933 02:36:27,320 --> 02:36:29,160 UP THE DIFFERENCE? 3934 02:36:29,160 --> 02:36:30,840 AS ALLUDED TO EARLIER, FARMERS 3935 02:36:30,840 --> 02:36:32,440 HAVE TO MAKE A LIVING, AND SO 3936 02:36:32,440 --> 02:36:36,400 THERE HAS TO BE INCENTIVES TO -- 3937 02:36:36,400 --> 02:36:37,120 ECONOMIC INCENTIVES TO CHANGE 3938 02:36:37,120 --> 02:36:38,840 WHAT THEY ARE GROWING BUT I 3939 02:36:38,840 --> 02:36:42,080 THINK STILL IT'S VERY MUCH AN 3940 02:36:42,080 --> 02:36:43,600 OPEN QUESTION WHETHER 3941 02:36:43,600 --> 02:36:45,880 BIOFORTIFICATION CAN REALLY 3942 02:36:45,880 --> 02:36:47,760 COVER THE NEEDS THAT ARE GOING 3943 02:36:47,760 --> 02:36:52,360 TO BE -- YOU KNOW, 3944 02:36:52,360 --> 02:36:56,200 COUNTER-BALANCING AS FAR AS 3945 02:36:56,200 --> 02:36:56,640 COMPOSITION. 3946 02:36:56,640 --> 02:36:57,560 I DON'T HAVE ANY ANSWERS. 3947 02:36:57,560 --> 02:37:00,280 >> THIS IS GOING TO BE A GREAT 3948 02:37:00,280 --> 02:37:01,040 OPPORTUNITY, SEVERAL WORKING 3949 02:37:01,040 --> 02:37:02,640 GROUPS HAVE DISCUSSED USE OF 3950 02:37:02,640 --> 02:37:03,720 CASE STUDIES. 3951 02:37:03,720 --> 02:37:05,600 THIS MIGHT BE ONE OF THOSE CASE 3952 02:37:05,600 --> 02:37:07,280 STUDIES THAT MIGHT TIE ALL THIS 3953 02:37:07,280 --> 02:37:08,720 UP TOGETHER. 3954 02:37:08,720 --> 02:37:11,960 WE HAVE A GLOBAL ENTERPRISE TO 3955 02:37:11,960 --> 02:37:13,080 ADDRESS IRON DEFICIENCY, FOR 3956 02:37:13,080 --> 02:37:14,600 EXAMPLE, AND OUR DECISIONS ABOUT 3957 02:37:14,600 --> 02:37:16,560 WHAT INTERVENTIONS WE CAN USE IS 3958 02:37:16,560 --> 02:37:19,400 GOING TO BE CONTINGENT ON ALL OF 3959 02:37:19,400 --> 02:37:22,680 THESE FOOD SYSTEMS AND THIS 3960 02:37:22,680 --> 02:37:23,320 INTERSECTION. 3961 02:37:23,320 --> 02:37:24,760 >> WELL, OF COURSE THAT'S 3962 02:37:24,760 --> 02:37:26,720 WHY -- IT'S ALWAYS IN THE BACK 3963 02:37:26,720 --> 02:37:29,720 OF MY MIND THINKING ABOUT TOTAL 3964 02:37:29,720 --> 02:37:31,440 MOVE AWAY FROM ANIMAL SOURCE 3965 02:37:31,440 --> 02:37:35,960 FOODS THAT HAS TREMENDOUS 3966 02:37:35,960 --> 02:37:36,880 IMPLICATION FOR MICRONUTRIENT 3967 02:37:36,880 --> 02:37:38,520 NEEDS PARTICULARLY FOR CERTAIN 3968 02:37:38,520 --> 02:37:41,160 PORTIONS OF THE POPULATIONS. 3969 02:37:41,160 --> 02:37:46,560 SO, FINE FOR US AS ADULTS NOT IN 3970 02:37:46,560 --> 02:37:48,840 THE REPRODUCTIVE CYCLE AND NOT 3971 02:37:48,840 --> 02:37:50,280 INFANTS AND TODDLERS BUT QUITE A 3972 02:37:50,280 --> 02:37:56,200 DIFFERENT STORY FOR THEM. 3973 02:37:56,200 --> 02:37:57,280 >> THANKS, NANCY. 3974 02:37:57,280 --> 02:38:00,040 YOU GOT NOTHING ELSE TO DO. 3975 02:38:00,040 --> 02:38:03,240 [LAUGHTER] 3976 02:38:03,240 --> 02:38:05,440 >> DO WE HAVE ANY OTHER FINAL 3977 02:38:05,440 --> 02:38:14,800 QUESTIONS FOR THE TEAM? 3978 02:38:14,800 --> 02:38:15,960 GREAT. 3979 02:38:15,960 --> 02:38:16,400 HEARING NONE -- 3980 02:38:16,400 --> 02:38:18,000 >> WE CAN ASK ONE QUESTION AS 3981 02:38:18,000 --> 02:38:21,960 LONG AS WE'RE TALKING ABOUT 3982 02:38:21,960 --> 02:38:24,000 MICRONUTRIENTS, THE DRIVERS FOR 3983 02:38:24,000 --> 02:38:29,040 FISH, OMEGA 3s AND VALUE OF OH 3984 02:38:29,040 --> 02:38:30,160 MAKE A 3s. 3985 02:38:30,160 --> 02:38:32,320 I BELIEVE THERE'S DATA THAT 3986 02:38:32,320 --> 02:38:34,320 INDICATES THERE ARE CHANGES IN 3987 02:38:34,320 --> 02:38:38,040 THE COMPOSITION OF OMEGA 3s IN 3988 02:38:38,040 --> 02:38:41,320 FISH BOTH WILD CAUGHT AND 3989 02:38:41,320 --> 02:38:42,280 DOMESTICALLY RAISED. 3990 02:38:42,280 --> 02:38:46,720 ANY THOUGHTS ON THAT? 3991 02:38:46,720 --> 02:38:48,480 >> YEAH, YEAH. 3992 02:38:48,480 --> 02:38:50,120 THAT'S A GOOD QUESTION. 3993 02:38:50,120 --> 02:38:53,880 SO, I THINK IN TERMS OF THE 3994 02:38:53,880 --> 02:38:55,360 AQUACULTURE SPECIES, THEY ARE 3995 02:38:55,360 --> 02:38:56,960 WHAT THEY EAT, RIGHT? 3996 02:38:56,960 --> 02:38:59,680 WE HAVE A LOT OF -- WE, THE 3997 02:38:59,680 --> 02:39:01,600 AQUACULTURE PRODUCERS HAVE A LOT 3998 02:39:01,600 --> 02:39:03,120 OF CONTROL OVER THE DEGREE TO 3999 02:39:03,120 --> 02:39:11,120 WHICH THEY ARE FED FISH 4000 02:39:11,120 --> 02:39:13,200 IMPACTING THE CONTENT. 4001 02:39:13,200 --> 02:39:17,040 WE HAVE SOME RELATIVELY RECENT 4002 02:39:17,040 --> 02:39:19,840 ANALYSES FROM COMPARING CAGED 4003 02:39:19,840 --> 02:39:21,720 FISH RAISED IN LAKE VICTORIA TO 4004 02:39:21,720 --> 02:39:24,880 WILD FISH TO POND FISH, AND YOU 4005 02:39:24,880 --> 02:39:26,120 CAN REALLY SEE THE SIGNATURE OF 4006 02:39:26,120 --> 02:39:27,960 THE FEED IN THE FATTY ACID 4007 02:39:27,960 --> 02:39:31,280 COMPOSITION OF THE RESULTING 4008 02:39:31,280 --> 02:39:33,200 FISH, RIGHT? 4009 02:39:33,200 --> 02:39:34,320 SO THAT AQUACULTURE SYSTEM I 4010 02:39:34,320 --> 02:39:36,600 THINK THERE IS A BIG QUESTION 4011 02:39:36,600 --> 02:39:38,120 ABOUT WHAT THE FATTY ACID 4012 02:39:38,120 --> 02:39:39,600 COMPOSITION OF THE FISH WILL 4013 02:39:39,600 --> 02:39:41,440 LOOK LIKE ACROSS THE BOARD, 4014 02:39:41,440 --> 02:39:47,080 THERE'S LIKELY -- FEED IS A BIG 4015 02:39:47,080 --> 02:39:49,600 ISSUE IN AQUACULTURE IN GENERAL. 4016 02:39:49,600 --> 02:39:50,360 FARMER STRUGGLE TO GET HIGH 4017 02:39:50,360 --> 02:39:51,920 QUALITY FEED. 4018 02:39:51,920 --> 02:39:53,320 THAT'S A TREMENDOUS AREA FOR 4019 02:39:53,320 --> 02:39:55,120 INNOVATION AND IT WILL REALLY 4020 02:39:55,120 --> 02:39:56,320 AFFECT THE RESULTING NUTRIENT 4021 02:39:56,320 --> 02:39:57,960 COMPOSITION OF THE FISH THAT ARE 4022 02:39:57,960 --> 02:40:00,560 PRODUCED THROUGH THOSE SYSTEMS 4023 02:40:00,560 --> 02:40:02,760 FOR SURE. 4024 02:40:02,760 --> 02:40:05,200 IN THE WILD SYSTEM, THE FATTY 4025 02:40:05,200 --> 02:40:06,600 ACID COMPOSITION ARISES FROM 4026 02:40:06,600 --> 02:40:08,440 WHAT THE FISH EAT AS WELL. 4027 02:40:08,440 --> 02:40:11,440 SO THERE ARE POTENTIALLY SHIFTS 4028 02:40:11,440 --> 02:40:15,160 THAT WILL HAPPEN DUE TO ALGAE 4029 02:40:15,160 --> 02:40:18,080 SPECIES IN THE FOOD WEB, FOR 4030 02:40:18,080 --> 02:40:19,080 EXAMPLE, AND HOW THAT SHIFTS 4031 02:40:19,080 --> 02:40:22,120 RELATED TO CLIMATE AS WELL. 4032 02:40:22,120 --> 02:40:24,080 I'M NOT AWARE OF ANY SYSTEMATIC 4033 02:40:24,080 --> 02:40:25,440 INVESTIGATION OF THAT BUT IT'S 4034 02:40:25,440 --> 02:40:26,480 CERTAINLY VERY MUCH OF CONCERN 4035 02:40:26,480 --> 02:40:36,600 AS WELL. 4036 02:40:37,120 --> 02:40:38,560 >> EXCELLENT. 4037 02:40:38,560 --> 02:40:42,600 WELL, IF WE DON'T HAVE FURTHER 4038 02:40:42,600 --> 02:40:44,000 DISCUSSION, FURTHER QUESTIONS, 4039 02:40:44,000 --> 02:40:46,040 WE'LL PULL OUR WORKING GROUP 3 4040 02:40:46,040 --> 02:40:47,640 WORKSHOP TO A CLOSE AND THANK 4041 02:40:47,640 --> 02:40:52,480 YOU ALL FOR YOUR ATTENTION. 4042 02:40:52,480 --> 02:40:53,880 THREE-HOUR SESSIONS CAN BE QUITE 4043 02:40:53,880 --> 02:40:54,800 THE MARATHON. 4044 02:40:54,800 --> 02:40:56,000 THOSE THAT STUCK THROUGH THE 4045 02:40:56,000 --> 02:41:00,240 WHOLE THING, YOU'RE MUCH 4046 02:41:00,240 --> 02:41:01,000 APPRECIATED. 4047 02:41:01,000 --> 00:00:00,000 THANKS EVERYONE.